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MonthlyGoldCompass
March2024
Ronald-PeterStöferle
MarkJ.Valek
InGoldWeTrustReport2024
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TableofContents:
1.Gold
2.Silver
3.Miner
4.Macro
5.LongTermCharts
6.ProprietaryModels
5
1.Gold
“Iviewgoldastheprimaryglobalcurrency.Itistheonlycurrency,alongwithsilver,thatdoesnotrequirea
counterpartysignature.”
AlanGreenspan
6
GoldPerformanceinMajorCurrencies,2000-2024YTD
Year
USD
EUR
GBP
AUD
CAD
CNY
JPY
CHF
INR
Average
2000
-5.3%
1.2%
2.0%
11.3%
-1.9%
-5.4%
5.8%
-4.2%
1.4%
0.6%
2001
2.4%
8.3%
5.3%
11.4%
8.8%
2.4%
18.0%
5.5%
5.8%
7.6%
2002
24.4%
5.6%
12.2%
13.3%
22.9%
24.4%
12.2%
3.5%
23.7%
15.8%
2003
19.6%
-0.2%
8.0%
-10.7%
-1.3%
19.6%
8.1%
7.4%
13.9%
7.2%
2004
5.6%
-1.9%
-1.7%
1.5%
-2.0%
5.6%
0.8%
-3.1%
0.1%
0.5%
2005
18.1%
35.1%
31.6%
25.9%
14.1%
15.1%
35.9%
36.3%
22.8%
26.1%
2006
23.0%
10.4%
8.1%
14.3%
23.3%
19.0%
24.2%
14.1%
20.7%
17.5%
2007
30.9%
18.5%
29.2%
18.0%
12.0%
22.5%
22.5%
21.8%
16.9%
21.4%
2008
5.4%
10.0%
43.1%
30.5%
28.7%
-1.5%
-14.2%
-0.8%
30.0%
14.6%
2009
24.8%
21.8%
12.9%
-1.6%
7.9%
24.8%
27.9%
21.1%
19.2%
17.6%
2010
29.5%
38.6%
34.2%
13.6%
22.8%
25.1%
13.2%
16.8%
24.8%
24.3%
2011
10.2%
13.9%
10.6%
10.3%
12.7%
5.2%
4.5%
10.7%
30.7%
12.1%
2012
7.1%
5.0%
2.5%
5.3%
4.2%
6.0%
20.7%
4.5%
11.1%
7.4%
2013
-28.0%
-30.9%
-29.4%
-16.1%
-23.0%
-30.1%
-12.6%
-29.8%
-19.1%
-24.3%
2014
-1.8%
11.6%
4.4%
7.3%
7.5%
0.7%
11.6%
9.4%
0.2%
5.6%
2015
-10.4%
-0.1%
-5.3%
0.6%
6.8%
-6.2%
-9.9%
-9.7%
-5.9%
-4.5%
2016
8.5%
12.1%
29.6%
9.6%
5.3%
16.1%
5.4%
10.3%
11.4%
12.0%
2017
13.1%
-0.9%
3.3%
4.6%
5.9%
6.0%
9.0%
8.3%
6.3%
6.2%
2018
-1.5%
3.0%
4.3%
8.9%
6.8%
4.1%
-4.2%
-0.8%
7.3%
3.1%
2019
18.3%
21.0%
13.7%
18.8%
12.6%
19.7%
17.2%
16.6%
21.3%
17.7%
2020
25.0%
14.8%
21.3%
14.1%
22.6%
17.2%
18.8%
14.3%
28.0%
19.6%
2021
-3.6%
3.6%
-2.6%
2.2%
-4.3%
-6.1%
7.5%
-0.6%
-1.7%
-0.6%
2022
-0.2%
6.0%
11.6%
6.3%
7.0%
8.3%
13.7%
1.1%
10.8%
7.2%
2023
13.1%
9.7%
7.4%
13.1%
10.5%
16.3%
21.6%
2.9%
13.7%
12.0%
2024YTD
-0.5%
1.5%
0.3%
4.3%
2.0%
0.9%
6.2%
5.0%
-0.9%
2.1%
CAGR
8.5%
8.2%
9.6%
8.5%
8.2%
7.8%
10.2%
5.9%
11.4%
8.7%
Source:ReutersEikon(asof02/29/2024),IncrementumAG
7
AnnualizedPerformanceofGold,inUSD,ifBoughtontheLastDayofthe
MonthandHelduntil02/29/2024(HoldingPeriod≥1Year)
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2000
8.56%
8.45%
8.69%
8.81%
8.86%
8.60%
8.84%
8.87%
8.96%
9.15%
9.09%
9.09%
2001
9.24%
9.25%
9.46%
9.38%
9.38%
9.33%
9.44%
9.34%
9.06%
9.32%
9.45%
9.40%
2002
9.38%
9.17%
9.11%
9.05%
8.80%
9.02%
9.24%
9.13%
8.99%
9.12%
9.14%
8.74%
2003
8.47%
8.77%
9.00%
9.00%
8.66%
8.97%
8.88%
8.62%
8.52%
8.57%
8.42%
8.23%
2004
8.43%
8.55%
8.19%
8.75%
8.68%
8.73%
8.81%
8.59%
8.52%
8.42%
8.17%
8.37%
2005
8.61%
8.48%
8.61%
8.57%
8.85%
8.64%
8.75%
8.72%
8.32%
8.41%
8.10%
7.86%
2006
7.33%
7.44%
7.25%
6.60%
6.73%
7.06%
6.88%
6.99%
7.31%
7.26%
6.89%
7.03%
2007
6.91%
6.78%
6.88%
6.77%
6.98%
7.12%
7.02%
6.97%
6.35%
5.94%
6.08%
5.71%
2008
5.05%
4.75%
5.17%
5.54%
5.45%
5.20%
5.31%
5.99%
5.69%
7.01%
6.21%
5.73%
2009
5.38%
5.28%
5.52%
5.80%
5.11%
5.55%
5.36%
5.43%
5.03%
4.79%
3.94%
4.50%
2010
4.62%
4.41%
4.46%
4.06%
3.85%
3.71%
4.12%
3.73%
3.38%
3.11%
2.98%
2.81%
2011
3.33%
2.89%
2.80%
2.11%
2.28%
2.47%
1.83%
0.92%
1.87%
1.44%
1.30%
2.22%
2012
1.34%
1.57%
1.72%
1.75%
2.33%
2.13%
2.06%
1.66%
1.26%
1.53%
1.57%
1.80%
2013
1.88%
2.37%
2.29%
3.04%
3.67%
4.85%
4.20%
3.70%
4.23%
4.29%
4.89%
5.33%
2014
5.05%
4.42%
4.80%
4.78%
5.16%
4.56%
4.98%
4.99%
5.73%
6.12%
6.24%
6.14%
2015
5.26%
5.97%
6.32%
6.37%
6.38%
6.62%
7.53%
7.17%
7.47%
7.23%
8.23%
8.36%
2016
7.75%
6.47%
6.60%
6.01%
6.94%
5.85%
5.61%
6.12%
6.11%
6.62%
7.96%
8.33%
2017
7.67%
7.29%
7.38%
7.24%
7.32%
7.76%
7.50%
6.93%
7.57%
7.78%
7.85%
7.58%
2018
7.12%
7.59%
7.61%
7.85%
8.21%
9.02%
9.62%
10.15%
10.47%
10.25%
10.29%
9.43%
2019
8.97%
9.25%
9.77%
10.10%
9.89%
8.29%
8.37%
6.80%
7.71%
7.18%
8.16%
7.41%
2020
6.34%
6.56%
6.94%
5.24%
4.60%
3.82%
0.96%
1.05%
2.38%
2.56%
4.39%
2.38%
2021
3.35%
5.63%
6.36%
5.23%
2.55%
5.54%
4.72%
4.89%
6.45%
6.02%
6.49%
5.26%
2022
6.37%
3.49%
2.82%
4.15%
6.27%
7.65%
9.68%
12.57%
15.81%
18.30%
12.25%
10.20%
20235.51%11.83%
Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG
8
CorrelationTableforGold,02/29/2024
DXY
GDX
S&P500
VIX
CRBTR
WTI
Copper
Bitcoin
15D
-0.70
0.83
0.29
-0.50
-0.18
-0.34
0.43
-0.20
ys
30D
-0.46
0.84
0.30
-0.30
-0.17
-0.21
0.21
-0.07
Da
60D
-0.61
0.83
0.37
-0.09
0.15
0.06
0.24
-0.06
ng
90D
-0.50
0.79
0.15
0.04
0.14
0.07
0.29
-0.13
radi
120D
-0.41
0.77
0.08
0.13
0.26
0.21
0.24
-0.13
T
150D
-0.45
0.78
0.16
0.06
0.26
0.18
0.30
-0.07
180D
-0.45
0.77
0.17
0.00
0.28
0.20
0.29
-0.07
52WeekHigh
-0.03
0.91
0.60
0.77
0.70
0.71
0.61
0.47
Date
11/13/2023
3/7/2023
8/11/2023
11/20/2023
11/9/2023
11/8/2023
9/8/2023
4/24/2023
Day
52WeekLow
-0.82
0.59
-0.54
-0.55
-0.27
-0.36
-0.20
-0.54
30
Date
3/13/2023
11/27/2023
4/19/2023
8/3/2023
5/5/2023
6/13/2023
5/9/2023
12/8/2023
%Time(+)
0%
100%
57%
54%
75%
62%
94%
58%
%Time(-)
100%
0%
43%
46%
25%
38%
6%
42%
52WeekHigh
-0.31
0.86
0.44
0.36
0.48
0.40
0.53
0.37
Date
11/21/2023
3/13/2023
3/8/2023
5/17/2023
10/27/2023
11/9/2023
3/8/2023
3/21/2023
Day
52WeekLow
-0.76
0.73
-0.36
-0.34
-0.05
-0.12
0.06
-0.21
90
Date
3/14/2023
12/12/2023
7/17/2023
9/26/2023
5/9/2023
6/14/2023
5/9/2023
12/8/2023
%Time(+)
0%
100%
67%
70%
84%
66%
100%
64%
%Time(-)
100%
0%
33%
30%
16%
34%
0%
36%
Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG
9
Gold,inUSD,01/1970-02/2024
2,135
2,200
incrementum
2,073
2,0001,920
1,800
1,614
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,031
1,0001,045
835
800
681
600
400
196
200254
102
0
19701975198019851990199520002005201020152020
Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG
ncrementum
10
2,200
2,100
2,000
1,900
1,800
1,700
1,600
1,500
GoldinUSD,andEUR,03/2022-02/2024
incrementu
03/202206/2022
Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG
ncrementum
09/202212/202203/202306/202309/202312/2023
USDEUR
11
ncrementum
GoldinUSD(lhs),andWorldGoldPrice(rhs),03/2022-02/2024
2,300
2,200
2,100
2,000
1,900
1,800
1,700
1,600
1,500
3,100
3,000
2,900
2,800
2,700
2,600
2,500
2,400
2,300
03/202206/202209/202212/202203/202306/202309/202312/2023
—USDWorldGoldPrice
Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG
ncrementum
12
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
COMEXGoldDeliveries,inThousandsofTroyOunces,01/2007-02/2024
ncrementum
2007200920112013
COMEXGoldDeliveries
Source:NickLaird,ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG
incrementum
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
—12MonthAverage
13
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Gold(Nominal),andGold(USCPIAdjusted–January2024),in
USD,01/1970-01/2024
USD2,589
incrementum
197019751980
Recession
Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG
ncrementum
1985
1990
1995
—Gold(Nominal)
20002005201020152020
—Gold(USCPIAdjusted-January2024)
14
GoldinVariousDevelopedMarketCurrencies,2024YTD
6%
ncrement
5.3%
5%
4.1%
3.8%
3.8%
3.7%
3.6%
4%
3.0%
3%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
2%
1.5%
1.2%
1.1%
0.8%
1%
0.5%
0%
-0.1%
-0.9%
-1%
-2%
-1.9%
-3%
ILSUSDGBPPLNISKSGDEURCADSEKTWDKRWNZDNOKHUFAUDCZKCHFJPY
Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG
ncrementum
15
GoldinVariousDevelopedMarketCurrenciesbelowAll-TimeHigh
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
-0.1%-0.1%0.0%
-0.3%
-0.6%
-0.8%-0.8%-0.7%
-1.7%-1.6%
-2.2%
-2.7%-2.6%
-3.3%
-5.3%-5.2%
-10.7%
incrementum
-11.0%
PLNILSSEKCHFNOKNZDSGDGBPISKUSDCADTWDAUDEURHUFKRWCZKJPY
Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG
ncrementum
16
GoldinVariousEmergingMarketCurrencies,2024YTD
90%
ncrementum
81.8%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
8.6%
10%
4.8%
3.5%
3.2%
4.1%
0.3%0.3%0.5%0.7%1.1%1.5%1.6%2.3%
0%
-1.3%-1.1%-0.4%-0.4%
-10%
INREGPVESMXNCOPCNYPHPPENIDRBRLRUBMYRARSTHBZARTRYCLPNGN
Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG
ncrementum
17
-2.1%-1.7%-1.7%-1.3%-1.0%-0.9%-0.8%-0.6%-0.4%-0.3%-0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
GoldinVariousEmergingMarketCurrenciesbelowAll-TimeHigh
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
-35%
-8.6%
-16.8%
-24.5%
ncrementum
-31.0%
RUBMXNCOPBRLINRPENCLPEGPCNYIDRVESPHPNGNMYRZARTHBTRYARS
Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG
ncrementum
18
MonthlyGoldETFFlowsbyRegion(lhs),inTonnes,andGold(rhs),in
USD,01/2004-01/2024
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
increentum
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
200420062008
NorthAmerica
Source:WorldGoldCouncil,IncrementumAG
ncrementum
20102012201420162018202020222024
EuropeAsiaOther—Gold
19
MonthlyGoldETFFlowsbyRegion(lhs),inTonnes,andGold(rhs),in
USD,01/2004-01/2024
250
2,500
incrementu
200
150
2,000
100
1,500
50
0
1,000
-50
-100
500
-150
0
-200
2010
200420062008
NorthAmerica
2012201420162018202020222024
EuropeAsiaOther—Gold
Source:WorldGoldCouncil,IncrementumAG
increentum
20
Gold/SilverRatio,03/2014-02/2024
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
2014
2016
2015
Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG
ncrementum
2017201820192020202120222023
Recession—Gold/SilverRatio
21
2.Silver
“Tradingsilverisatoughwaytomakeaneasyliving.”
RichRoss
22
SilverPerformanceinMajorCurrencies,2000-2024YTD
Year
USD
EUR
GBP
AUD
CAD
CNY
JPY
CHF
INR
Average
2000
-15.0%
-9.1%
-8.4%
0.0%
-11.9%
-15.0%
-5.0%
-13.9%
-8.9%
-9.7%
2001
0.4%
6.2%
3.3%
9.2%
6.7%
0.4%
15.7%
3.5%
3.8%
5.5%
2002
3.3%
-12.4%
-6.8%
-6.0%
2.0%
3.3%
-6.9%
-14.1%
2.7%
-3.9%
2003
24.6%
3.9%
12.5%
-7.0%
2.7%
24.6%
12.6%
11.9%
18.6%
11.6%
2004
14.5%
6.3%
6.6%
10.0%
6.2%
14.5%
9.3%
5.1%
8.6%
9.0%
2005
29.7%
48.5%
44.6%
38.4%
25.4%
26.5%
49.3%
49.8%
35.0%
38.6%
2006
46.1%
31.1%
28.4%
35.8%
46.4%
41.3%
47.4%
35.5%
43.3%
39.5%
2007
14.8%
3.8%
13.3%
3.4%
-1.8%
7.4%
7.4%
6.8%
2.5%
6.4%
2008
-23.5%
-20.2%
3.9%
-5.3%
-6.6%
-28.5%
-37.7%
-28.0%
-5.6%
-16.8%
2009
48.9%
45.4%
34.7%
17.5%
28.8%
49.0%
52.7%
44.6%
42.3%
40.4%
2010
83.4%
96.2%
89.9%
60.8%
73.8%
77.0%
60.2%
65.3%
76.6%
75.9%
2011
-10.3%
-7.2%
-9.9%
-10.2%
-8.2%
-14.3%
-14.9%
-9.9%
6.4%
-8.7%
2012
9.5%
7.3%
4.8%
7.6%
6.5%
8.4%
23.4%
6.9%
13.6%
9.8%
2013
-36.0%
-38.5%
-37.2%
-25.4%
-31.4%
-37.8%
-22.3%
-37.5%
-28.0%
-32.7%
2014
-19.3%
-8.3%
-14.2%
-11.9%
-11.7%
-17.3%
-8.3%
-10.2%
-17.7%
-13.2%
2015
-11.7%
-1.6%
-6.7%
-0.9%
5.2%
-7.6%
-11.2%
-11.0%
-7.2%
-5.9%
2016
15.2%
19.0%
37.6%
16.3%
11.8%
23.2%
11.9%
17.1%
18.3%
18.9%
2017
6.4%
-6.8%
-2.9%
-1.6%
-0.4%
-0.3%
2.5%
1.8%
-0.1%
-0.2%
2018
-8.7%
-4.4%
-3.2%
1.0%
-1.0%
-3.5%
-11.2%
-8.0%
-0.5%
-4.4%
2019
15.2%
17.8%
10.8%
15.7%
9.7%
16.6%
14.2%
13.6%
18.1%
14.6%
2020
47.8%
35.7%
43.4%
34.9%
44.9%
38.6%
40.5%
35.2%
51.3%
41.4%
2021
-11.7%
-5.2%
-10.8%
-6.5%
-12.4%
-14.1%
-1.6%
-9.0%
-10.0%
-9.0%
2022
3.0%
9.4%
15.2%
9.8%
10.5%
11.8%
17.3%
4.4%
14.4%
10.6%
2023
-0.9%
-3.8%
-5.8%
-0.8%
-3.1%
2.0%
6.7%
-9.7%
-0.3%
-1.7%
2024YTD
-4.6%
-2.6%
-3.8%
0.1%
-2.2%
-3.2%
1.9%
0.7%
-4.9%
-2.1%
CAGR
6.1%
5.8%
7.2%
6.1%
5.8%
5.5%
7.8%
3.6%
9.0%
6.3%
Source:ReutersEikon(asof02/29/2024),IncrementumAG
23
AnnualizedPerformanceofSilver,inUSD,ifBoughtontheLastDayofthe
MonthandHelduntil02/29/2024(HoldingPeriod≥1Year)
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2000
6.27%
6.45%
6.52%
6.58%
6.65%
6.58%
6.64%
6.68%
6.80%
6.95%
7.02%
7.14%
2001
6.98%
7.31%
7.53%
7.52%
7.48%
7.61%
7.72%
7.80%
7.34%
7.83%
7.92%
7.45%
2002
7.90%
7.63%
7.52%
7.65%
7.20%
7.41%
7.68%
7.87%
7.82%
7.87%
7.99%
7.65%
2003
7.61%
7.90%
8.08%
7.91%
8.08%
8.08%
7.49%
7.56%
7.57%
7.67%
7.40%
6.88%
2004
6.65%
6.30%
5.43%
6.91%
6.83%
7.16%
6.57%
6.42%
6.33%
6.07%
5.78%
6.49%
2005
6.58%
6.14%
6.30%
6.53%
6.16%
6.46%
6.35%
6.71%
6.24%
6.20%
5.70%
5.34%
2006
4.74%
4.80%
3.87%
2.88%
3.41%
4.20%
4.04%
3.29%
4.03%
3.62%
2.86%
3.35%
2007
3.08%
2.82%
3.17%
3.18%
3.18%
3.69%
3.50%
3.91%
3.09%
2.79%
3.02%
2.68%
2008
1.85%
0.85%
1.75%
1.90%
1.91%
1.72%
1.61%
3.36%
4.20%
5.61%
5.35%
4.70%
2009
3.95%
3.73%
3.84%
4.18%
2.50%
3.56%
3.42%
2.94%
2.19%
2.34%
1.47%
2.12%
2010
2.43%
2.32%
1.89%
1.44%
1.48%
1.48%
1.73%
1.19%
0.33%
-0.64%
-1.60%
-2.32%
2011
-1.61%
-3.02%
-3.84%
-5.67%
-4.06%
-3.29%
-4.38%
-4.72%
-2.20%
-3.27%
-2.97%
-1.63%
2012
-3.09%
-3.46%
-2.91%
-2.60%
-1.68%
-1.62%
-1.78%
-2.87%
-3.60%
-3.05%
-3.39%
-2.57%
2013
-2.90%
-2.06%
-2.02%
-0.63%
0.19%
1.37%
1.29%
-0.33%
0.45%
0.36%
1.25%
1.54%
2014
1.71%
0.68%
1.42%
1.75%
2.00%
0.81%
1.13%
1.64%
3.14%
3.71%
4.26%
4.12%
2015
3.07%
3.52%
3.54%
3.93%
3.56%
4.30%
5.12%
5.31%
5.44%
4.65%
5.94%
6.24%
2016
5.90%
5.40%
4.99%
3.12%
4.61%
2.55%
1.46%
2.66%
2.30%
3.30%
4.50%
5.04%
2017
3.70%
3.10%
3.21%
4.13%
4.10%
4.81%
4.66%
4.00%
4.97%
4.95%
5.29%
4.83%
2018
4.53%
5.54%
5.71%
5.81%
5.85%
6.25%
7.03%
8.46%
8.46%
9.14%
9.36%
7.66%
2019
7.01%
7.76%
8.56%
9.02%
9.75%
8.78%
7.53%
4.81%
6.74%
5.30%
6.97%
5.93%
2020
5.76%
8.00%
13.15%
11.33%
6.59%
6.28%
-2.00%
-6.07%
-0.69%
-1.24%
0.09%
-4.65%
2021
-5.52%
-5.22%
-2.48%
-4.60%
-7.46%
-5.16%
-4.40%
-2.07%
0.87%
-2.16%
-0.26%
-1.20%
2022
0.50%
-3.66%
-4.53%
-0.17%
2.97%
7.01%
7.15%
16.75%
13.27%
13.53%
1.70%
-4.66%
2023-4.03%8.39%
Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG
24
CorrelationTableforSilver,02/29/2024
DXY
SIL
S&P500
VIX
CRBTR
WTI
Copper
Bitcoin
15D
-0.44
0.74
0.38
-0.44
-0.01
0.10
0.42
-0.06
ys
30D
-0.34
0.68
0.29
-0.22
0.01
0.04
0.44
0.11
Da
60D
-0.53
0.74
0.37
-0.08
0.15
0.11
0.57
0.04
ing
90D
-0.48
0.75
0.23
-0.04
0.07
0.02
0.41
-0.05
rad
120D
-0.47
0.75
0.15
0.07
0.17
0.13
0.37
-0.07
T
150D
-0.49
0.75
0.23
0.01
0.18
0.09
0.43
-0.01
180D
-0.49
0.75
0.25
-0.07
0.18
0.10
0.43
-0.06
52WeekHigh
-0.21
0.90
0.56
0.47
0.53
0.48
0.70
0.64
Date
11/13/2023
3/13/2023
8/23/2023
11/13/2023
10/27/2023
11/9/2023
1/19/2024
4/24/2023
Day
52WeekLow
-0.77
0.55
-0.43
-0.62
-0.12
-0.40
-0.21
-0.49
30
Date
3/14/2023
9/22/2023
4/21/2023
8/3/2023
5/8/2023
9/28/2023
4/21/2023
12/4/2023
%Time(+)
0%
100%
67%
60%
91%
66%
88%
63%
%Time(-)
100%
0%
33%
40%
9%
34%
12%
37%
52WeekHigh
-0.44
0.84
0.43
0.19
0.41
0.31
0.54
0.42
Date
2/9/2024
3/16/2023
3/10/2023
5/10/2023
3/7/2023
3/7/2023
10/2/2023
5/25/2023
Day
52WeekLow
-0.71
0.71
-0.09
-0.30
0.07
0.01
0.07
-0.19
90
Date
3/28/2023
9/29/2023
7/17/2023
9/20/2023
2/29/2024
9/27/2023
6/16/2023
12/8/2023
%Time(+)
0%
100%
81%
53%
100%
100%
100%
61%
%Time(-)
100%
0%
19%
47%
0%
0%
0%
39%
Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG
25
Silver,inUSD,01/1970-02/2024
55
incrementum
49.51
48.00
50
45
40
35
30.03
30
25
21.24
20
17.53
15
11.62
10
6.70
8.42
5
3.82
3.53
0
1975198019851990
199520002005201020152020
1970
Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG
ncrementum
26
incre
entum
SilverinUSD(lhs),andWorldSilverPrice(rhs),03/2022-02/2024
30
40
28
38
26
36
24
34
22
32
20
30
18
28
16
26
06/2022
03/2022
12/2022
03/2023
06/2023
09/2023
12/2023
09/2022
WorldSilverPrice
—USD
Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG
ncrementum
27
increentum
COMEXSilverDeliveries,inMillionsofTroyOunces,01/2007-02/2024
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2007
2009
2011
2013
COMEXSilverDeliveries
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
—12MonthAverage
Source:NickLaird,ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG
ncrementum
28
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Silver(Nominal),andSilver(USCPIAdjusted–January2024),inUSD,
01/1970-01/2024
USD144.40
ncrementum
1970197519801985
Recession
Source:NickLaird,ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG
ncrementum
1990199520002005201020152020
Silver(Nominal)—Silver(USCPIAdjusted-January2024)
29
3.Miner
“Youmakemostofyourmoneyinabearmarket,youjust
don’trealizeitatthetime.”
ShelbyCullomDavis
30
MonthlyPerformanceofBullionandMiners,03/2022-02/2024
GoldHUIGDXGDXJSilverSILSILJ
Mar-22
1.54%
11.31%
11.55%
8.67%
1.44%
6.75%
8.98%
Apr-22
-2.11%
-9.41%
-8.76%
-8.36%
-8.20%
-9.71%
-12.71%
May-22
-3.13%
-9.89%
-9.32%
-8.71%
-5.30%
-7.49%
-10.01%
Jun-22
-1.64%
-13.23%
-13.71%
-18.39%
-5.98%
-14.75%
-14.01%
Jul-22
-2.31%
-6.09%
-4.05%
5.06%
0.36%
1.85%
3.68%
Aug-22
-3.09%
-9.91%
-9.40%
-11.93%
-11.56%
-11.64%
-10.55%
Sep-22
-2.98%
4.03%
1.34%
-0.51%
5.73%
3.43%
3.40%
Oct-22
-1.60%
0.72%
0.17%
0.14%
0.74%
3.77%
1.43%
Nov-22
8.29%
17.17%
20.24%
21.08%
15.96%
14.35%
16.86%
Dec-22
3.16%
0.18%
-1.34%
-0.20%
7.98%
-1.54%
-2.41%
Jan-23
5.67%
11.65%
11.72%
9.26%
-1.11%
7.53%
6.07%
Feb-23
-5.22%
-15.27%
-14.08%
-13.25%
-11.76%
-11.98%
-13.58%
Mar-23
7.70%
17.87%
17.59%
16.90%
15.11%
15.23%
14.99%
Apr-23
1.11%
1.74%
3.80%
0.63%
4.00%
-2.73%
-2.43%
May-23
-1.37%
-7.62%
-7.95%
-6.57%
-6.23%
-9.74%
-10.69%
Jun-23
-2.18%
-2.85%
-2.59%
-3.98%
-3.09%
-3.63%
-3.20%
Jul-23
2.32%
3.47%
4.32%
5.61%
8.87%
6.81%
10.02%
Aug-23
-1.24%
-6.06%
-6.84%
-4.43%
-1.35%
-4.54%
-7.36%
Sep-23
-4.71%
-9.06%
-8.03%
-10.45%
-9.31%
-9.81%
-11.30%
Oct-23
7.27%
5.19%
4.09%
3.44%
3.34%
0.54%
-0.59%
Nov-23
2.68%
10.88%
11.82%
15.57%
10.26%
15.31%
16.13%
Dec-23
1.32%
0.88%
-0.99%
-1.61%
-5.90%
2.38%
2.15%
Jan-24
-1.23%
-10.13%
-9.90%
-10.84%
-3.55%
-10.47%
-12.80%
Feb-24
0.30%
-6.70%
-5.65%
-5.68%
-1.08%
-9.06%
-8.14%
CAGR
3.5%
-14.6%
-12.4%
-14.0%
-3.7%
-17.7%
-21.3%
MAX
8.3%
17.9%
20.2%
21.1%
16.0%
15.3%
16.9%
MIN
-5.2%
-15.3%
-14.1%
-18.4%
-11.8%
-14.7%
-14.0%
CurrentPrice2,043204.026.431.8822.6723.108.01
Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG
31
GDX/GoldRatio(top),andGDXJ/GDXRatio(bottom),03/2014-02/2024
0.026
0.022
0.018
0.014
0.010
GDX/GoldRatio
2014201520162017201820192020202120222023
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
—GDXJ/GDXRatio
2015
2016
2014
Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG
ncrementum
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
32
SIL/SilverRatio(top),andSILJ/SILRatio(bottom),03/2014-02/2024
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
SIL/SilverRatio
2014201520162017201820192020202120222023
0.42
0.38
0.34
0.30
0.26
—SILJ/SILRatio
2014
2016
2015
Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG
ncrementum
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
33
4.Macro(Inflation,Markets,Positioning,etc.)
“Wenowunderstandbetterhowlittleweunderstand
aboutinflation.”
JeromePowell
34
InflationHeatMap(DevelopedMarkets),yoy,02/2022-01/2024
USACPI
CanadaCPI
EuroAreaHICP
GermanyHICP
FranceHICP
ItalyHICP
SwitzerlandCPI
GreatBritainCPI
JapanCPI
SouthKoreaCPI
AustraliaCPI
Feb-22
7.87%
5.69%
5.87%
5.49%
4.17%
6.15%
2.15%
6.18%
0.90%
3.78%
4.56%
Mar-22
8.54%
6.66%
7.44%
7.60%
5.11%
6.81%
2.39%
7.02%
1.20%
4.18%
5.09%
Apr-22
8.26%
6.77%
7.44%
7.84%
5.38%
6.28%
2.55%
9.01%
2.42%
4.76%
5.44%
May-22
8.58%
7.73%
8.05%
8.74%
5.82%
7.33%
2.94%
9.08%
2.41%
5.34%
5.79%
Jun-22
9.06%
8.13%
8.64%
8.25%
6.54%
8.46%
3.38%
9.41%
2.31%
6.04%
6.14%
Jul-22
8.52%
7.59%
8.87%
8.48%
6.78%
8.36%
3.43%
10.10%
2.61%
6.33%
6.52%
Aug-22
8.26%
7.01%
9.14%
8.83%
6.56%
9.11%
3.45%
9.87%
3.01%
5.72%
6.90%
Sep-22
8.20%
6.86%
9.93%
10.90%
6.23%
9.37%
3.25%
10.10%
3.00%
5.48%
7.27%
Oct-22
7.75%
6.88%
10.62%
11.56%
7.07%
12.57%
3.00%
11.05%
3.80%
5.62%
7.46%
Nov-22
7.11%
6.80%
10.05%
11.26%
7.08%
12.58%
2.96%
10.67%
3.80%
5.01%
7.65%
Dec-22
6.45%
6.32%
9.20%
9.61%
6.73%
12.34%
2.84%
10.53%
4.00%
5.02%
7.83%
Jan-23
6.41%
5.92%
8.64%
9.17%
7.04%
10.67%
3.28%
10.05%
4.39%
4.98%
7.56%
Feb-23
6.04%
5.25%
8.50%
9.27%
7.29%
9.84%
3.37%
10.42%
3.28%
4.66%
7.29%
Mar-23
4.98%
4.30%
6.88%
7.75%
6.68%
8.09%
2.95%
10.06%
3.26%
4.17%
7.02%
Apr-23
4.93%
4.41%
6.95%
7.61%
6.89%
8.59%
2.57%
8.66%
3.55%
3.69%
6.69%
May-23
4.05%
3.36%
6.09%
6.26%
6.01%
7.99%
2.16%
8.68%
3.24%
3.38%
6.35%
Jun-23
2.97%
2.81%
5.50%
6.77%
5.33%
6.75%
1.71%
7.95%
3.34%
2.73%
6.03%
Jul-23
3.18%
3.27%
5.28%
6.47%
5.07%
6.29%
1.61%
6.83%
3.32%
2.35%
5.81%
Aug-23
3.67%
4.00%
5.22%
6.44%
5.72%
5.54%
1.55%
6.66%
3.12%
3.36%
5.59%
Sep-23
3.70%
3.80%
4.31%
4.34%
5.66%
5.62%
1.65%
6.65%
3.01%
3.68%
5.37%
Oct-23
3.24%
3.12%
2.88%
3.00%
4.55%
1.83%
1.69%
4.60%
3.28%
3.76%
4.93%
Nov-23
3.14%
3.12%
2.37%
2.27%
3.86%
0.58%
1.44%
3.94%
2.89%
3.30%
4.49%
Dec-23
3.35%
3.40%
2.90%
3.77%
4.10%
0.50%
1.71%
3.99%
2.59%
3.16%
4.05%
Jan-24
3.09%
2.86%
2.75%
3.10%
3.40%
0.92%
1.28%
3.98%
2.10%
2.80%
Source:ReutersEikon,IncrementumAG
35
InflationHeatMap(EmergingMarkets),yoy,02/2022-01/2024
ArgentinaCPI
BrazilCPI
MexicoCPI
SouthAfricaCPI
NigeriaCPI
TurkeyCPI
RussiaCPI
ChinaCPI
IndiaCPI
IndonesiaCPI
ThailandCPI
Feb-22
52.30%
10.54%
7.28%
5.66%
15.70%
54.44%
9.18%
0.90%
6.07%
2.00%
5.28%
Mar-22
55.10%
11.30%
7.45%
5.93%
15.92%
61.14%
16.70%
1.50%
6.95%
2.52%
5.73%
Apr-22
58.00%
12.13%
7.68%
5.89%
16.82%
69.97%
17.88%
2.10%
7.79%
3.34%
4.65%
May-22
60.70%
11.73%
7.65%
6.51%
17.71%
73.50%
17.09%
2.10%
7.04%
3.40%
7.10%
Jun-22
64.00%
11.89%
7.99%
7.42%
18.60%
78.62%
15.92%
2.50%
7.01%
4.37%
7.66%
Jul-22
71.00%
10.07%
8.15%
7.85%
19.64%
79.60%
15.07%
2.70%
6.71%
4.93%
7.61%
Aug-22
78.50%
8.73%
8.70%
7.61%
20.52%
80.21%
14.29%
2.50%
7.00%
4.53%
7.86%
Sep-22
83.00%
7.17%
8.70%
7.50%
20.77%
83.45%
13.66%
2.80%
7.41%
5.92%
6.41%
Oct-22
88.00%
6.47%
8.41%
7.58%
21.09%
85.51%
12.68%
2.10%
6.77%
5.64%
5.98%
Nov-22
92.40%
5.90%
7.80%
7.44%
21.47%
84.39%
11.97%
1.60%
5.88%
5.39%
5.55%
Dec-22
94.80%
5.79%
7.8
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