与零部件行业20198全球汽车产业市场状况

EuropeEquity28AugustGlobalStateofthemarket:HalfwaythroughQ3,weareseeingsustainedreductionsindemandlevelsacrosstheglobe.ChinaandEuropehavebeenthecoredriversofearningsdowngradesacrossthesectorandweareyettoseeaninflectionpointintheseendmarkets.Inreturn,OEMsandsuppliersareshiftingfocustodrivecostcontrolinitiativesandoptimizeproductioncapacityinthesustainedlowvolumeconditions.AsvariousmacrofactorscontinuetoweighEuropeEquity28AugustGlobalStateofthemarket:HalfwaythroughQ3,weareseeingsustainedreductionsindemandlevelsacrosstheglobe.ChinaandEuropehavebeenthecoredriversofearningsdowngradesacrossthesectorandweareyettoseeaninflectionpointintheseendmarkets.Inreturn,OEMsandsuppliersareshiftingfocustodrivecostcontrolinitiativesandoptimizeproductioncapacityinthesustainedlowvolumeconditions.Asvariousmacrofactorscontinuetoweighondemand,welookatthestateofkeyendmarkets,i.e.China,Europe,NorthAmerica,BrazilandRussiainourAugustMarketupdate:EuropeanAutosJoseMAsumendiAC(44-20)7742-BloombergJPMAASUMENDI(44-20)7134-SarthJ(91-22)6157-J.P.MorganIndiaPrivateOverallsalesmomentumoftheChinesecarmarketisdevelopingweakerthanexpected.Wholesaledemandisdown13%YTDcoupledwitha15%YTDcuttoproductionvolumes.Pricingpowerhasdeterioratedacrossthemarketandinventorylevelshavecontinuedtorise.OurhouseviewremainsthatapreviouslyexpectedinflectionpointinAugustmaybepushedbacktoQ4,asthelowbasekicksinandtheChinaVIpre-buyeffecteasesout–leadingtoalowsingle-digitrebound.Europeancardemand.InJuly’19,salesinthefivekeyWesternEuropean(WE)markets(~80%ofEU15+EFTAdemand)weredown5.3%y/y,drivenbySpain(-15%),UK(-8.3%),France(-6.1%)andItaly(-0.7%).SalesinGermanywereflaty/y.YeartoJuly’19,demandisestimatedtobedown3%y/yinWE.PricingpowerisshowingsignsofsequentialimprovementinJuly/Aug'19.OurAugustchannelchecksindicatea130bpssequentialdecreaseinincentivelevelsonaverageamongtheGermanpremiumcarmakersand10bpsdecreaseacrossEuropeanvolumeOEMsUSJuly’19autovolumesdown2.3%y/y(adj.)USSAARcameinat16.9munitsinJuly’19,flaty/y,inlinewithBBGconsensusof16.9mandslightlyaheadofJPMeof~16.8munits.JulymarkedthefourthmonthinFY19inwhichtheSAARhastrackedbelowthe17mlevel,inlinewithJPMeandmarketexpectationsofamodestslowdowncomparedtotherobustincentive-fueledgrowthseenlastyear.YeartoJuly’19volumesweredown1.5%y/y.Incentivespendingacrosstheindustryincreasedby2.2%m/mto$3,911,comparedto$3,826inJun'19.EMwatch–Brazilremainsrobust,whileRussiahasbeendeclining.Brazil’syeartoJuly’19volumeswereup11%y/y,drivenbyrobustmomentumacrossPCsandLCVs.Volumeswereup12%y/yinQ2andJuly’19.InRussia,yeartoJulyvolumesaredown2.4%y/y.Carsalesdeclinedby2.4%y/yinJuly’19,followinga0.3%y/ydeclineinQ1and4.2%y/ydeclineinQ2.Retaildemandhasbeensofteningfollowingthe2%VATratehikesintroducedinJanuaryandapullbackinautosubsidies.HDtrucksoutperformondigitaltachographpre-buy.HDtruckregistrationsinQ2increasedby24%y/y,with104.8knewvehiclesregistered,bringingtheYTDgrowthup13.8%y/y.ThesharpriseinEuropeantruckregistrationsinQ2wasprimarilyduetoanewEUtachographlegislation,whereintrucksregisteredonorafterJune15,2019,havetobefittedwiththenewsmarttachographs.Figure1:W.European%Source:Figure2:Chinawholesale%Source:J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthemakingtheirinvestmentdecision.每日免费每日免费获取报关注回复：研究加入“起点财经”微信群。EuropeEquityEuropeEquity28AugustJoseMAsumendiTableofEarningsmomentuminavolatile Chinacarmarket Marketshare Wheredowestandonthe1.6lengine Pricingenvironmentremains Inventorylevelsrising Globaltruck WesternEuropepassengercar CarsalesinthebigfiveEU Developmentsindiesel ChannelmixinJuly(unadjustedforselling Augustupdate:Pricingpowerrevertingtohealthy Updateonscrappage USLV USSAARtrackingat Acrossthepremium RussiaLV Brazilcar 2EuropeEquity28EuropeEquity28AugustJoseMAsumendiEarningsmomentuminavolatileThechallenginglandscapeoftheautosectorhasmeaningfullydampenedearningsgrowthmomentuminEurope.Inadditiontoweakeningendmarkets,regulatorypressureshavealsoimpactedOEMsandsuppliers,eitherdirectly(fines,investigations,etc.)orindirectly(increasedR&DtomeetCO2targets,transitiontoEVs).Beforewedivedeeperintothecoreendmarkets,wehighlightthekeychangestoourearningsestimatessincethebeginningoftheyearbelow:Figure3:ChangeinJPMesince€million,EPSin€,3EuropeEquity28EuropeEquity28AugustJoseMAsumendiChinacarmarketKeyWholesalepassengercardemandinChinadeclinedby3.9%y/yinJuly’19,animprovedtrajectorycomparedtothedouble-digitdeclinesofApril/Mayand8%declineinJune'19.Retaildemandtoowasdown5%y/yinJuly,vsthe+5%y/yChinaVIfueledgrowthinJun’19.Pricingpowerhascontinuedtodeteriorate,withincentivelevelsstillathighlevelsintheindustry.BarringselectOEMsthatarerollingoutnewvehicles,thepricingenvironmenthasnotyetrecuperated.Further,lookingatinventories,weareseeingasequentialbuild-upinthemarket,especiallywithlocalOEMs,duetochannelstuffingofChina5vehiclesassomecitieshaveextendedthegraceperiodforthenewemissionsstandards.TheselevelsareinlinewiththehighbuildupofinventoriesseeninJuly2018aswell.Giventheweakconsumersentiment,autodemandandthecurrentinventorylevels,wearecautiousaboutthedownsiderisktocurrentproductionestimatesforthemarket.Webelieveproductioncoulddeclineby9%inFY19vsIHSestimatesofdown7%.Wearealsoseeingdouble-digitdeclinesintheweeklyretailsalesdatacomingoutforthemonthofAugust;however,wearecognizantofthevolatilityofthesedatapointsandthereforeweusethemprimarilyasadirectional/qualitativeindicatorasopposedtoanabsoluteguidetotheperformanceofthemarket.Wedonotexpecttoseeameaningfulrecoveryinthecomingmonthsasthemarketinitiallyexpected.OurhouseviewremainsthatthepreviouslyexpectedinflectionpointinAugustmaybepushedbacktoQ4,asthelowbasekicksinandtheChinaVIpre-buyeffecteasesout–leadingtoalowsingle-digitrebound.WeexpecttoseecontinuedweaknessintheChinesemarketgoingintoSeptemberasaresultofongoingclearanceofChinaVstocksfromdealerlots(certainmainlandprovinceshaveofferedgraceperiods,wavingofftheJuly1stdeadlineforChinaVIimplementation).Augustalsotendstoexperienceseasonallyweakergrowthas1)Consumerspendingondurablestendstotakeabackseatoverthesummermonthsand2)OEMplantscarryoutannualsummershutdowns.Currently,weareforecastingaweakerphaseofrecoverythisyearandexpectChinesedemandtodecline4%inFY19andproductiontodecline9%.RecentcommentsfromGeelyarealsoinlinewithourexpectations.Geely,the2ndlargestChineseOEM,saidthattheongoingUS-Chinatradedisputeshaveresultedin“hugeuncertainties”forautodemandinChinaintheremainderoftheyearandthatthegovernment’seffortstostimulatevehicledemandhavehadlittleeffectthusfar.Lastmonth,Geelyalsocutitsfull-yearsalesforecastby10%to1.36mvehicles.4EuropeEquity28AugustJoseMAsumendiFigure4:WholesaledemandpicksuponChinaVIpre-%Figure5:Productiondecliningsince3Q18–down19%in%WholesaleSource:CAAM,Source:Figure6:DiscountsarerisingatpremiumEuropeEquity28AugustJoseMAsumendiFigure4:WholesaledemandpicksuponChinaVIpre-%Figure5:Productiondecliningsince3Q18–down19%in%WholesaleSource:CAAM,Source:Figure6:Discountsarerisingatpremium%Figure7:Inventorylevelsclimbingback%3mLocalJVPremiumSource:Source:MarketshareDivingdeeperintotheindustry’sperformance,weseeJapaneseandGermanOEMsholdinggreatershareyeartoJuly’19vsUSandChinesebrands.PremiumOEMshavebeenoutperformingthemarketandGermannameslikeBMW,DaimlerandAudihavebeengainingmarketsharefromtheincumbentChineseOEMs.Overall,themarketisstilllargelydominatedbylocalChineseOEMsthathold~40%ofthemarket,followedbyGerman(~24%),Japanese(~22%)andUS(~10%)brands.51H-Feb2H-Mar1H-May2H-Jun1H-Aug2H-Sept1H-Nov2H-Dec1H-Feb2H-Mar1H-May2H-Jun1H-Aug2H-Sept1H-Nov2H-Dec1H-Feb2H-Mar1H-May2H-Jun1H-AugMay-EuropeEquity28AugustJoseMAsumendiFigure8:ChinaMarketsharebyOEMJul-Jul-Source:J.P.Morganestimates,Inbasicpassengercars,JapaneseandKoreanOEMshavegainedthemostvs.ayearago,withtheUSandChineseOEMslosingabout4%pinmarketshare.Figure9:PassengercarmarketsharebyJul-Jul-Source:J.P.Morganestimates,WithintheSUVsegment:GermanandJapaneseOEMsarewinningmarketshareattheexpenseofUSandChineseOEMs.AmongUSOEMs,GMisgoingthroughaproductchangeoverandFordhasahighPCmix,withanSUVpushmainlystartinginFY20.WithinFrenchOEMs,RenaultisstillsettingabaseinChinaandPeugeotisrestructuringitssalesanddistributionstrategy.EuropeEquity28AugustJoseMAsumendiFigure8:ChinaMarketsharebyOEMJul-Jul-Source:J.P.Morganestimates,Inbasicpassengercars,JapaneseandKoreanOEMshavegainedthemostvs.ayearago,withtheUSandChineseOEMslosingabout4%pinmarketshare.Figure9:PassengercarmarketsharebyJul-Jul-Source:J.P.Morganestimates,WithintheSUVsegment:GermanandJapaneseOEMsarewinningmarketshareattheexpenseofUSandChineseOEMs.AmongUSOEMs,GMisgoingthroughaproductchangeoverandFordhasahighPCmix,withanSUVpushmainlystartinginFY20.WithinFrenchOEMs,RenaultisstillsettingabaseinChinaandPeugeotisrestructuringitssalesanddistributionstrategy.Figure10:SUVmarketsharebyJul-Source:J.P.Morganestimates,6EuropeEquity28AugustJoseMAsumendiFigure11:TotalMarketshareby%Figure12:Totalmarketshareby%Source:Source:Figure13:BasicPassengercar:Marketshareby%Figure14:BasicPassengercar:Marketshareby%Sep- Nov-Jan-Mar-May-Jul-EuropeEquity28AugustJoseMAsumendiFigure11:TotalMarketshareby%Figure12:Totalmarketshareby%Source:Source:Figure13:BasicPassengercar:Marketshareby%Figure14:BasicPassengercar:Marketshareby%Sep- Nov-Jan-Mar-May-Jul-Source:Source:Figure15:SUV:Marketshareby%Figure16:SUV:Marketshareby%--Sep- Nov-Jan-Mar-May-Jul-Source:Source:7May-Jul-May-Jul-EuropeEquity28AugustJoseMAsumendiWheredowestandonthe1.6lengineThe<1.6lenginesegmenthasbeenpopularoverrecentyears,representingover60%ofthemarketwithstrongincentives,whicharenowdecliningacrosstheSUVandnonSUVsubsegment.Figure17:Proportionofcarsalesbyengine%Jun09Jun10Jun11Jun12Jun13Jun14Jun15Jun16Jun17Jun18Jun1.0-1.6-Source:J.P.Morgan.,Figure18:Passengercardemandacrossengine%Figure19:SUVDemandacrossengine%-EuropeEquity28AugustJoseMAsumendiWheredowestandonthe1.6lengineThe<1.6lenginesegmenthasbeenpopularoverrecentyears,representingover60%ofthemarketwithstrongincentives,whicharenowdecliningacrosstheSUVandnonSUVsubsegment.Figure17:Proportionofcarsalesbyengine%Jun09Jun10Jun11Jun12Jun13Jun14Jun15Jun16Jun17Jun18Jun1.0-1.6-Source:J.P.Morgan.,Figure18:Passengercardemandacrossengine%Figure19:SUVDemandacrossengine%lessthan1.6Lmorethan1.6LSUV1.0-1.6LSUV1.6-2.0LSource:Source:PricingenvironmentremainsOurchannelcheckssuggestthatthepricingenvironmentinthefirsthalfof3Q19hasbeendeteriorating.Productionwasdown19.3%inQ2andVWbrand,whichisforusthemarketindicator,sawadditional2.5%pricedeteriorationvs1Q19.This,inourview,reflectshowcompetitivethemarketis.BarringBMW,theotherpremiumbrandsunderourcoverage,i.e.,Mercedes-BenzandAudi,sawincrementalpricingheadwindsinChinaoverJuly/August.BMWbenefittedfromlaunchesofthe3seriesandthe7seriesmodels,whichenabledthecompanytomaintainpricingpowerduringtheperiod.Lookingatvolumenames,onasequentialbasis(comparedto2Q19),discountsatPeugeotremainedflat,Citroenincreasedby~1%,VWbrandwereup1.2%andSkodaincentivesremainedflat.IncentivesatGMandToyotawereup1.2%and0.5%respectively.8Oct-Feb-EuropeEquity28AugustJoseMAsumendiFigure20:Channelchecksindicateincreasing%Figure21:WeseesimilarincreasesatVolumeOEMsas%Q317Q3Q1Q1Q2Q2Q317Q3Q1Q1Q218Q2Q4Q4Q4Q4Source:Source:Figure22:Pricingcompetitioncontinuesto%Figure23:Skodashowingmodest%VWSource:Source:Figure24:PremiumbrandsAudi/BMW/Mercedesareofferinghigher%Figure25:Industryincentivelevelsare%Source:LocalJVPremiumSource:91H-Feb2H-Mar1H-May2H-Jun1H-Aug2H-Sept1H-Nov2H-Dec1H-Feb2H-Mar1H-May2H-Jun1H-Aug2H-Sept1H-NovEuropeEquity28AugustJoseMAsumendiFigure20:Channelchecksindicateincreasing%Figure21:WeseesimilarincreasesatVolumeOEMsas%Q317Q3Q1Q1Q2Q2Q317Q3Q1Q1Q218Q2Q4Q4Q4Q4Source:Source:Figure22:Pricingcompetitioncontinuesto%Figure23:Skodashowingmodest%VWSource:Source:Figure24:PremiumbrandsAudi/BMW/Mercedesareofferinghigher%Figure25:Industryincentivelevelsare%Source:LocalJVPremiumSource:91H-Feb2H-Mar1H-May2H-Jun1H-Aug2H-Sept1H-Nov2H-Dec1H-Feb2H-Mar1H-May2H-Jun1H-Aug2H-Sept1H-Nov2H-Dec1H-Feb2H-Mar1H-May2H-Jun1H-Aug1H-Feb2H-Mar1H-May2H-Jun1H-Aug1H-Nov2H-Dec1H-Feb2H-Mar1H-May2H-Jun1H-Aug1H-Nov2H-Dec1H-Feb2H-Mar1H-May2H-Jun1H-AugEuropeEquity28AugustJoseMAsumendiInventorylevelsrisingAutomotiveinventorieshavebeenonthehigherendofthespectrumsinceJune2018whentheChinesemarketbeganitsdecline.AccordingtoCADA,aninventorycoefficientof0.8-1.2xisareasonablerange,whilelevels>1.5xreflectexcessinventoriesatunhealthylevels.TheinventoryindexinJuly'19stoodat1.75x,wellabovethewarningline;however,theselevelsaredownby~2%onay/ybasis.Sequentially,wehaveseenasharpincrease,upfrom1.38xinJune’19,astheChinaVIclearanceshavebeeneasedoff.Further,wehaveseenagreaterbuildupatlocalOEMs(2.15xvs1.59xinJune),whileImportedbrands(1.48xvs1.14xinJune)andJVbrands(1.65xand1.39xinJune)areinarelativelybetterposition.Figure26:InventorylevelspilingupinxFigureEuropeEquity28AugustJoseMAsumendiInventorylevelsrisingAutomotiveinventorieshavebeenonthehigherendofthespectrumsinceJune2018whentheChinesemarketbeganitsdecline.AccordingtoCADA,aninventorycoefficientof0.8-1.2xisareasonablerange,whilelevels>1.5xreflectexcessinventoriesatunhealthylevels.TheinventoryindexinJuly'19stoodat1.75x,wellabovethewarningline;however,theselevelsaredownby~2%onay/ybasis.Sequentially,wehaveseenasharpincrease,upfrom1.38xinJune’19,astheChinaVIclearanceshavebeeneasedoff.Further,wehaveseenagreaterbuildupatlocalOEMs(2.15xvs1.59xinJune),whileImportedbrands(1.48xvs1.14xinJune)andJVbrands(1.65xand1.39xinJune)areinarelativelybetterposition.Figure26:InventorylevelspilingupinxFigure27:InventorylevelsbacktosquarexJVImportedLocal3mSource:Source:Figure28:InventorylevelsatpremiumxFigure29:PSAinventorylevelsdown,VWlevelsxMercedes-DongfengVolkswagenSource:Source:May-Mar-May-EuropeEquity28AugustJoseMAsumendiGlobaltruckEuropeantruckdemand:YeartoJune’19heavycommercialvehicles(>16t)up13.8%y/y,Q2up24%y/yInJune'19,HDtruckregistrationsincreasedby46%y/y,with42knewvehiclesregistered,bringing1H19growthup14%y/y.ThesharpriseinEuropeantruckregistrationsinJunewasprimarilyduetonewEUtachographlegislation,viawhichtrucksregisteredonorafterJune15,2019,havetobefittedwiththenewsmarttachographs.Salesincreasedinallkeyregions–Germany(39%y/y),France(37%y/y),UK(62%y/y),Spain(45%y/y),Poland(26%y/y)andItaly(46%y/y).Q2registrationswereup24.3%y/yinthemarket.DeliveriesinthequarteracrossFrance(+30%y/y),Germany(+22%y/y),Italy(11%y/y),Spain(+14%y/y),UK(+32%y/y)andPoland(+18%y/y)wereimpactedbypre-buyingeffectsinMayandJune.YTDregistrations:Italy(flaty/y),France(+19%),Spain(+5%),Germany(+19%),UK(+28%)andPoland(+11%).WithintheEuropeantruckOEMs,MBTrucks,MANandDAFaremoreexposedtotheGermanandUKmarkets.InQ2,booktobillratiosacrossEuropeatVolvostoodat0.79x(vs.0.97xinQ1),whileDaimlerreportedabooktobillratioinEuropeof0.93x(vs.1.08xinQ1).Figure30:EUlong-termHDtruckFigure31:EU+EFTAmonthlyHDtruckYoY--EuropeEquity28AugustJoseMAsumendiGlobaltruckEuropeantruckdemand:YeartoJune’19heavycommercialvehicles(>16t)up13.8%y/y,Q2up24%y/yInJune'19,HDtruckregistrationsincreasedby46%y/y,with42knewvehiclesregistered,bringing1H19growthup14%y/y.ThesharpriseinEuropeantruckregistrationsinJunewasprimarilyduetonewEUtachographlegislation,viawhichtrucksregisteredonorafterJune15,2019,havetobefittedwiththenewsmarttachographs.Salesincreasedinallkeyregions–Germany(39%y/y),France(37%y/y),UK(62%y/y),Spain(45%y/y),Poland(26%y/y)andItaly(46%y/y).Q2registrationswereup24.3%y/yinthemarket.DeliveriesinthequarteracrossFrance(+30%y/y),Germany(+22%y/y),Italy(11%y/y),Spain(+14%y/y),UK(+32%y/y)andPoland(+18%y/y)wereimpactedbypre-buyingeffectsinMayandJune.YTDregistrations:Italy(flaty/y),France(+19%),Spain(+5%),Germany(+19%),UK(+28%)andPoland(+11%).WithintheEuropeantruckOEMs,MBTrucks,MANandDAFaremoreexposedtotheGermanandUKmarkets.InQ2,booktobillratiosacrossEuropeatVolvostoodat0.79x(vs.0.97xinQ1),whileDaimlerreportedabooktobillratioinEuropeof0.93x(vs.1.08xinQ1).Figure30:EUlong-termHDtruckFigure31:EU+EFTAmonthlyHDtruckYoYYoYSource:IHSSource:Figure32:Europeanheavytruckmarket:Registrationsacrosskey#,dottedlineshowshistoricalpeaklevelsineach0YTDSource:ACEA,J.P.Feb-Jun-EuropeEquity28AugustJoseMAsumendiChinesetruckdemanddownsignificantlyinChinesetrucksalesdeclinedby8.9%y/yinJuly’19to242.4kunits.YeartoJulysalesofHDtrucksarenowdowny/y(4%y/y)vs2.4%y/ygrowthinvolumesuntilBrazilTruckdemandrecoveringfromalowTheBrazilianHDtruckmarket(heavy+semi-heavytrucks)hasbeengrowingatafastpaceoverthelastyear.VolumesinJulywereup45%y/yto6.6kunits,whileyeartoJulyvolumeswereup56%y/yto40.7kunitsasthemarketisrecoveringfromalowbase.AsperIHS,demandinthecountryisexpectedtogrowby~51%y/yinFY19to79.6kunits.TruckdemandinNorthAmericaisexpectedtoflattenoutathighlevelsinthenearterm,followingthesharpgrowthindemandseeninFY18.IHSexpectsthemarkettogrowby3.6%y/yinFY19inlinewithJPMestimatesof2%growth.Figure33:Chinalong-termHDFigure34:ChinamonthlytruckYoYGreaterSource:IHSSource:Figure35:Brazillong-termHDtruckFigure36:Brazilmonthlytrucksales(heavy+semi-heavyYoYHeavy+Semi-Source:Source:IHSEuropeEquity28AugustJoseMAsumendiChinesetruckdemanddownsignificantlyinChinesetrucksalesdeclinedby8.9%y/yinJuly’19to242.4kunits.YeartoJulysalesofHDtrucksarenowdowny/y(4%y/y)vs2.4%y/ygrowthinvolumesuntilBrazilTruckdemandrecoveringfromalowTheBrazilianHDtruckmarket(heavy+semi-heavytrucks)hasbeengrowingatafastpaceoverthelastyear.VolumesinJulywereup45%y/yto6.6kunits,whileyeartoJulyvolumeswereup56%y/yto40.7kunitsasthemarketisrecoveringfromalowbase.AsperIHS,demandinthecountryisexpectedtogrowby~51%y/yinFY19to79.6kunits.TruckdemandinNorthAmericaisexpectedtoflattenoutathighlevelsinthenearterm,followingthesharpgrowthindemandseeninFY18.IHSexpectsthemarkettogrowby3.6%y/yinFY19inlinewithJPMestimatesof2%growth.Figure33:Chinalong-termHDFigure34:ChinamonthlytruckYoYGreaterSource:IHSSource:Figure35:Brazillong-termHDtruckFigure36:Brazilmonthlytrucksales(heavy+semi-heavyYoYHeavy+Semi-Source:Source:IHSMar-May-EuropeEquity28AugustJoseMAsumendiFigure37:NorthAmericanlong-termHDFigure38:NAClass8truckYoYSource:IHSFigure39:Russialong-termHDFigure40:RussiamonthlyHDtruckYoY-0Source:IHSSource:J.P.WesternEuropepassengercarInJuly2019,salesvolumesinthefivekeymarketsofWesternEurope(~80%ofEU15+EFTAdemand)weredown5.3%y/y.ThesedeclinesweredrivenbySpain(-15%y/y),UK(-8%y/y),France(-6%y/y)andItaly(-4%y/y).SalesinGermanywereflaty/y.WeexpectEuropeanregistrationstodeclineby5.7%y/yinJuly’19vs.+3.1%inJuly’18.YeartoJuly,Germanywasup1.2%y/y,Francedown1.8%y/y,Italydown3.2%y/y,UKdown3.5%y/yandSpaindown7.2%y/y.Forthefullyear,wenowseesalesdown1%y/yinEurope(vs.ourassumptionofmodestgrowthatthebeginningoftheyear).Itiskeytoseeifregistrationdatain2019isalsodistortedbyRDE/EVAPimplementationfrom1stSep2019.KeydevelopmentsinJuly:1)DieselshareinthekeyWEmarkets(thebig5)stabilizedat32%inJul’19vs.33%in2Q19and37%in2018.ShareofdieselregistrationsinGermanywasstableat33%inJuly’19(up70bpsy/y).IntheUK,dieselsharedeclinedto25.9%,down~6ppy/yand50bpssequentially.InFrance,dieselsharewasat33.9%vs39.5%lastyear.InSpain,dieselstabilizedfollowingarapiddeclineandreached26%(vs.36%lastyearand28%in1H19).DieselshareinItalydeclinedsignificantly,down5%pm/mand14%py/yto37%-thelowestlevelssinceSeptember2001.2)ChannelmixcontinuedtobeweakinJulywithhighershareofsalesinthebusiness/fleet/rentalchannelsvs.private.YeartoJulyshareofprivateregistrationswasdown160bpsinGermanyanddown220bpsinSpain.InFeb-Jun-EuropeEquity28AugustJoseMAsumendiFigure37:NorthAmericanlong-termHDFigure38:NAClass8truckYoYSource:IHSFigure39:Russialong-termHDFigure40:RussiamonthlyHDtruckYoY-0Source:IHSSource:J.P.WesternEuropepassengercarInJuly2019,salesvolumesinthefivekeymarketsofWesternEurope(~80%ofEU15+EFTAdemand)weredown5.3%y/y.ThesedeclinesweredrivenbySpain(-15%y/y),UK(-8%y/y),France(-6%y/y)andItaly(-4%y/y).SalesinGermanywereflaty/y.WeexpectEuropeanregistrationstodeclineby5.7%y/yinJuly’19vs.+3.1%inJuly’18.YeartoJuly,Germanywasup1.2%y/y,Francedown1.8%y/y,Italydown3.2%y/y,UKdown3.5%y/yandSpaindown7.2%y/y.Forthefullyear,wenowseesalesdown1%y/yinEurope(vs.ourassumptionofmodestgrowthatthebeginningoftheyear).Itiskeytoseeifregistrationdatain2019isalsodistortedbyRDE/EVAPimplementationfrom1stSep2019.KeydevelopmentsinJuly:1)DieselshareinthekeyWEmarkets(thebig5)stabilizedat32%inJul’19vs.33%in2Q19and37%in2018.ShareofdieselregistrationsinGermanywasstableat33%inJuly’19(up70bpsy/y).IntheUK,dieselsharedeclinedto25.9%,down~6ppy/yand50bpssequentially.InFrance,dieselsharewasat33.9%vs39.5%lastyear.InSpain,dieselstabilizedfollowingarapiddeclineandreached26%(vs.36%lastyearand28%in1H19).DieselshareinItalydeclinedsignificantly,down5%pm/mand14%py/yto37%-thelowestlevelssinceSeptember2001.2)ChannelmixcontinuedtobeweakinJulywithhighershareofsalesinthebusiness/fleet/rentalchannelsvs.private.YeartoJulyshareofprivateregistrationswasdown160bpsinGermanyanddown220bpsinSpain.InFeb-Jun-EuropeEquity28AugustJoseMAsumendiItaly,shareofprivatesaleswasup300bps,whiletheshareofprivatebuyersintheUKwasflaty/y.Note:Allfiguresmentionedaboveareadjustedforsellingdays.Figure41:PassengercarsalesbyOEMinWesternEurope(unadjustedforsellingy/yVWBrandJulySource:J.P.Table1:PassengerCarSalesgrowth(unadjustedforsellingdays)acrossEU-5:ByYoYJul-Aug-Sep-Oct-Nov-Dec-Jan-Feb-Mar-Apr-May-Jun-Jul-VWEuropeEquity28AugustJoseMAsumendiItaly,shareofprivatesaleswasup300bps,whiletheshareofprivatebuyersintheUKwasflaty/y.Note:Allfiguresmentionedaboveareadjustedforsellingdays.Figure41:PassengercarsalesbyOEMinWesternEurope(unadjustedforsellingy/yVWBrandJulySource:J.P.Table1:PassengerCarSalesgrowth(unadjustedforsellingdays)acrossEU-5:ByYoYJul-Aug-Sep-Oct-Nov-Dec-Jan-Feb-Mar-Apr-May-Jun-Jul-VWBMWPSA(Core)TotalSource:RespectiveNationalAssociationsandJ.P.Morgan.EU-5:Germany,France,Italy,Spain&Table2:MarketsharebyMarketFiatJul-Aug-Sep-Oct-Nov-Dec-Jan-Feb-Mar-Apr-May-Jun-Jul-VWGroupBMWPSA(Core)Source:Source:RespectiveNationalAssociationsandJ.P.Morgan.EU-5:Germany,France,Italy,Spain&EuropeEquity28AugustJoseMAsumendiCarsalesinthebigfiveEUFigure42:W.Europe:Passengercarsales,adjustedforselling%Figure43:Germany:Passengercarsales,adjustedforselling%y/yadj.y/yy/yadj.y/ySource:ACEAandJ.P.MorganSource:KBAandJ.P.MorganFigure44:France:Passengercarsales,adjustedforselling%Figure45:Italy:Passengercarsales,adjustedforselling%y/yadj.y/yy/yadj.y/ySource:ANFIAandJ.P.MorganSource:CCFAandJ.P.MorganFigure46:Spain:Passengercarsales,adjustedforselling%Figure47:UK:Passengercarsales,adjustedforselling%y/yadj.y/yy/yadj.y/ySource:ANFACandJ.P.MorganSource:SMMTEuropeEquity28AugustJoseMAsumendiCarsalesinthebigfiveEUFigure42:W.Europe:Passengercarsales,adjustedforselling%Figure43:Germany:Passengercarsales,adjustedforselling%y/yadj.y/yy/yadj.y/ySource:ACEAandJ.P.MorganSource:KBAandJ.P.MorganFigure44:France:Passengercarsales,adjustedforselling%Figure45:Italy:Passengercarsales,adjustedforselling%y/yadj.y/yy/yadj.y/ySource:ANFIAandJ.P.MorganSource:CCFAandJ.P.MorganFigure46:Spain:Passengercarsales,adjustedforselling%Figure47:UK:Passengercarsales,adjustedforselling%y/yadj.y/yy/yadj.y/ySource:ANFACandJ.P.MorganSource:SMMTandJ.P.MorganEuropeEquity28AugustJoseMAsumendiDevelopmentsindieselDieselshareinthekeyWEmarkets(thebig5)stabilizedat~32%inJuly2019vs33%in2Q19and37%inJuly2018.Duringthemonth,shareofdieselregistrationsinGermanyincreasedby10bpsm/mand70bpsy/yto33%.IntheUK,dieselsharereached25.9%,down>6.1ppy/yand50bpssequentially.InFrance,dieselpowertrainsmadeup33.9%ofthemonth’svolumesvs33.7%inJune’19and39.5%inEuropeEquity28AugustJoseMAsumendiDevelopmentsindieselDieselshareinthekeyWEmarkets(thebig5)stabilizedat~32%inJuly2019vs33%in2Q19and37%inJuly2018.Duringthemonth,shareofdieselregistrationsinGermanyincreasedby10bpsm/mand70bpsy/yto33%.IntheUK,dieselsharereached25.9%,down>6.1ppy/yand50bpssequentially.InFrance,dieselpowertrainsmadeup33.9%ofthemonth’svolumesvs33.7%inJune’19and39.5%inJuly’18.InSpain,therewasaslightsequentialincreaseindieselshare(+20bpsm/m)to26.1%(vs.36%lastyear).ThemostsignificantmovementwasseeninItaly,wheredieselsharesequentiallydeclinedby~5%pm/mto37%,implyinga14%preductionvsJuly’18Figure48:GermanydieselFigure49:UKdieselDiesel(rolling12mDiesel(rolling12mSource:SMMTandJ.P.MorganSource:KBAandJ.P.MorganFigure50:FrancedieselFigure51:SpaindieselDiesel(rolling12mDiesel(rolling12mSource:CCFAandJ.P.MorganSource:ANFACandJ.P.MorganEuropeEquity28AugustJoseMAsumendiFigure52:ItalydieselFigure53:DieselEuropeEquity28AugustJoseMAsumendiFigure52:ItalydieselFigure53