美股-租赁与物流行业飞机专项调查新装备在济低迷时期表现强劲

27August2019Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchLeasing&LogisticsAircraftLeasing–Proprietary27August2019Americas/UnitedStatesEquityResearchLeasing&LogisticsAircraftLeasing–ProprietaryResearchMoshe212538moshe.orenbuch@credit-James212325james.ulan@credit-Jose212325jose.caiado@credit-Newkitsolid+strengthinadownturn,butcurrent-genrates/valuescouldweakenOursurveyoffleetmanagersandairlineexecssuggestsmodeststrengthfornewnarrowbodyleaseratesbutsomepressureonvalues/ratesofcurrentgennarrowbodiesand777/A330s.Fleetmanagers/executivesdonotexpectairlinefailurestodeclinematerially.Ourstudyalsosuggeststhatorderbooklessors,suchasALandAER,shouldfarebetter-than-expectedinthenextdownturn,asfewairlinescanceledforwarddeliveriesinthelastrecession.■Conclusion:ALandAERshoulddobetterinadownturnandAYRwillhavetomanagetheircurrentgenexposure.Wearemoreoptimisticonnewgenleaserates,butabitmorecautiousoncurrentgenleaserates.TheMAXshouldseesomebenefitandpossiblytheneotoo,inadditiontodecliningtreasuryyieldswhichshouldhelpNIMs.Airlinefailuresareunlikelytoreturnto'15-'17'slows.WearemorepositiveonAL,asonly3outof39surveyedairlinescanceledordersfromlessorsinthepriorrecessionandeventhenthetwoofthesecanceled30%orless.Modestneostrength,goodMAXforecastsbutratesoftnessincurrentgennarrow/widebodies:Ourstudysuggeststhattheneo(A320leaserateforecastfor+2.5%vsOct'18survey's-1%)andMAX(leaserateforecastfor+6.3%vsOct'18's-1%)shouldseesomeimprovementbut777,A330andcurrentgennarrowbodiesarelikelytoseemoreleaseratesoftness.Oncurrentgen,FMsforecast737-800ratestodeclineby-12%vsOct'18's-7%andA320CGratestodeclineby-12%vsOct'18's-6%.Investorscouldbeginaskinghowneo/MAXwillimpactcurrentgenvalues/rates.CurrentgenratepressurecouldbemorechallengingforAYR,givenitsolderfleetandlowerNIMafterdepreciation.FMsexpecttoleaseless:52%offleetmanagers/execsindicatedthattheyexpectthe%oftheirfleetthatisleasedtodeclineoverthenext3yrs.Theavgofallrespondentswasthat74.5%oftheirfleet'saircraftareleasedandthisshoulddeclineto67%inthreeyears.31%ofFMs/execsexpectleasing'sshareoftheirfleetnottochangeand17%expectittoincrease.InpreviousstudiesweaskedFMs/execstoestimatethechangeinleasedpercentage,forallairlinesintheirregion.InourOct'18study,13%expectedleasing'ssharetodeclineandinJan'18,25%.Wenotethatleasing'ssharehasincreasedfrom2010-2018,toslightlyover40%.Forwardorderslikelytobedeliveredinadownturn:Oursurveyshowedthatairlinesdidnotcancelsignificantforwarddeliveriesinthe'08-'10recession.Outof39respondents,inthelastrecession,82%didnotcancelanydeliveries,10%canceledsomeOEMorders,3%canceledbothOEMandlessordeliveries,and5%canceledlessordeliveries.FMsindicatedthattheywouldcancellessordeliveriesataslightlyhigherratethanOEMordersbutthiswouldbemanageableiftherearefew■■■DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:thattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.1、每日微信群内分享7+1、每日微信群内分享7+2、每日分享当日华尔街日报3、每周分享关注公回复：研究报加入“起点财经”微信群。27August■27August■Bankruptciesexpectedtooccurinsimilarlevels:21%ofsurveyparticipantsexpectfewerbankruptciesinthenexttwoyearsand78%expect'moreorthesame'levelofbankruptcies.ThiscomparestoourOct'18studywith88%ofparticipantsexpecting'moreorthesame'levelofbankruptciesandJan'18's63%.Inthisstudy,21%expectbankruptciestodecline.IfFMs/execsarecorrect,thenweshouldseeasimilaramountofbankruptciesin'19/'20.2AircraftLeasing–ProprietaryLeasing'sMarketShare–somedeclineWechangedourquestionaboutleasing'smarketshareandnowaskeachfleetmanagerandexecutivewhatpercentageoftheirfleetisleasedasoftoday(July2019)andwheretheyexpectthatpercentagetobeinthreeyears.Previously,weaskedthemtoestimateleasing'smarketshare,Leasing'sMarketShare–somedeclineWechangedourquestionaboutleasing'smarketshareandnowaskeachfleetmanagerandexecutivewhatpercentageoftheirfleetisleasedasoftoday(July2019)andwheretheyexpectthatpercentagetobeinthreeyears.Previously,weaskedthemtoestimateleasing'smarketshare,todayandthreeyearsfromnow,fortheirgeographicregion.52%ofFMs/execssurveyedexpectthepercentageoftheirfleetthatisleasedtodeclineoverthenextthreeyears,whereasintheFall2018surveyonly13%offleetmanagers/execsindicatedtheyexpecttheirclosestcompetitors'leasedpercentagetodecline.January2018'ssurveyshowedthat25%ofrespondentsexpectleasing'ssharetodecline.Theaverageleasedpercentageoffleet,fromoursurvey,asoftoday,is74.5%andFMs/execsexpectthattodeclineto67%,threeyearsfromFigure1:Summer2019survey,Fall2018survey,January2018 Remainremainremain27August3AircraftLeasing–ProprietaryLeased%Aug'193yearforecast 1011 13 15 18192021 252627 2930 32 35363839404142 16%54%80%58%100%60%70%100%100%66%86%100%30%100%70%100%100%70%92%94%70%100%100%100%60%94%58%100%0%38%100%56%100%100%60%38%38%46%70%60%94%30%72%80%66%100%50%30%100%90%64%70%80%30%70%80%100%100%50%76%84%90%100%100%84%40%80%50%80%0%42%96%50%74%80%36%38%40%0%70%60%92%Airlinebankruptcies–forecasttoremainOurlatestsurveysuggeststhatFMs/execsexpectbankruptciesoverthenexttwoyearstoberoughlythesameasthepasttwoyears.WeinterpretthistomeanthatAirlinebankruptcies–forecasttoremainOurlatestsurveysuggeststhatFMs/execsexpectbankruptciesoverthenexttwoyearstoberoughlythesameasthepasttwoyears.WeinterpretthistomeanthatFMs/execsbelievethat2019through2020willlookalotlike2018and1H19,i.e.,anelevatedlevelofbankruptciesfromprioryears.Sept/OctoberSept/OctoberFigure2:Forecastsforairlinebankruptcies–August2019,Summer2019survey,Fall2018survey,January2018 Summary2019question:Whatpercentageofyourfleetisleased?Whatpercentagedoyouexpecttobeleasedthreeyearsfromnow?Forexample,ifyourfleetconsistsof100aircraftand20areleased,enter20%?Fall2018:Wearetryingtogaugewhetherleasingwillgainorlosemarketshare.Currently,leasingrepresentsabout40%oftheglobalcommercialjetmarket.Inyourprimaryregion(NorthAmerica,SouthAmerica,Europe,Africa,MiddleEast,Asia,Oceana,etc.)howdoyouexpectleasing'smarketsharetochangeoverthenextthreeyears?January2018question:Wearetryingtogaugewhetherleasingwillgainorlosemarketshareoftheglobalcommercialaircraftmarket.Inyourprimaryregion(NorthAmerica,SouthAmerica,Europe,Africa,MiddleEast,Asia,Oceana,etc.).Howdoyouexpectleasing'smarketsharetochangeoverthenextthreeyears?Sept-Oct2017:Wearetryingtogaugewhetherleasingwillgainorlosemarketshareoftheglobalcommercialaircraftmarket.Inyourprimaryregion(NorthAmerica,SouthAmerica,Europe,Africa,MiddleEast,Asia,Oceana,etc.).Howdoyouexpectleasing'smarketsharetochangeoverthenextthreeyears?27August4AircraftLeasing–ProprietaryJan/Feb August New737MAX8LeaseRateKeytakeaway:Fleetmanagersnowhavehigherexpectationsforthechangein737MAX8leaserates,overthenext18months,comparedtoourOctober2018survey,likelyduetotheMAX'sscarcesupply.Inournewsurvey,theforecastedaverageisfora+10.7%increaseoverthenext18months,thoughtwodatapointslookliketheycouldbeoutliers.Withoutthesetwo,theaverageforecastwas+6.3%comparedtoourOct'18andOct'17surveysof-1%and+1%.Figure3:Aug2019survey,estimatedchangesinleaseratesfornew737MAX8s,overthenext Figure4:Oct2018 ----------Figure5:Oct2017 New737MAX8LeaseRateKeytakeaway:Fleetmanagersnowhavehigherexpectationsforthechangein737MAX8leaserates,overthenext18months,comparedtoourOctober2018survey,likelyduetotheMAX'sscarcesupply.Inournewsurvey,theforecastedaverageisfora+10.7%increaseoverthenext18months,thoughtwodatapointslookliketheycouldbeoutliers.Withoutthesetwo,theaverageforecastwas+6.3%comparedtoourOct'18andOct'17surveysof-1%and+1%.Figure3:Aug2019survey,estimatedchangesinleaseratesfornew737MAX8s,overthenext Figure4:Oct2018 ----------Figure5:Oct2017 Figure6:737MAX8monthlyleaserateforecastinthousandsofU.S. 3815AircraftLeasing–Proprietary737MAX8-July2019$340k$350k$350k$190k$390k$300k$340k$300k$300k$330k$300k$290k$310k$290k$280k$250k$300k$240k737MAX8-Jan $290k$330k$350k$190k$400k$310k$360k$320k$320k$360k$330k$320k$350k$330k$320k$290k$350k$350kestimated -14.7%-5.7%0.0%0.0%2.6%3.3%5.9%6.7%6.7%9.1%10.0%10.3%12.9%13.8%14.3%16.0%16.7%45.8% 10.7%10.7%10.7%10.7%10.7%10.7%10.7%10.7%10.7%10.7%10.7%10.7%10.7%10.7%10.7%10.7%10.7%10.7%New737MAX9LeaseRateKeytakeaway:Fleetmanagersnowhavehigherexpectationsfor737Max9leaserates,comparedtoourOctober2018survey,likelyduetotheMAX'sscarcesupply.Inournewsurvey,theforecastaverageisfor+21%overthenext18months,thoughtwodatapointslookliketheycouldbeoutliers.Withoutthesetwo,theaverageforecastforchangeinleaseratesoverthenext18monthswas+10%comparedtoOct'18andOct'17'ssurveysof-3%and-2%.Figure7:Aug2019survey,est.changesinleaseratesfornew737MAX9s,overthenext18monthsFigure8:Oct2018 --------------Figure9:Oct2017 New737MAX9LeaseRateKeytakeaway:Fleetmanagersnowhavehigherexpectationsfor737Max9leaserates,comparedtoourOctober2018survey,likelyduetotheMAX'sscarcesupply.Inournewsurvey,theforecastaverageisfor+21%overthenext18months,thoughtwodatapointslookliketheycouldbeoutliers.Withoutthesetwo,theaverageforecastforchangeinleaseratesoverthenext18monthswas+10%comparedtoOct'18andOct'17'ssurveysof-3%and-2%.Figure7:Aug2019survey,est.changesinleaseratesfornew737MAX9s,overthenext18monthsFigure8:Oct2018 --------------Figure9:Oct2017 Figure10:Aug2019survey-737MAX9monthlyleaserateforecastinthousandsofU.S.Dollars 16AircraftLeasing–Proprietary737MAX9-July2019$340k$310k$320k$290k$310k$200k737MAX9-Jan $350k$320k$360k$330k$360k$300kestimated Used737-800NGLeaseRateKeytakeaway:Fleetmanagerscontinuetoexpectlowerleaseratesonthe737-800NG.Inournewsurvey,theforecastaverageisfor-9%overthenext18months,thoughonedatapointlookslikeanoutlier.Withoutthesetwo,theaverageforecastforchangeinleaseratesoverthenext18monthswas-12%comparedtoourOct'18,Jan/Feb'18andOct'17surveysof-7%,-8%,and-10%.Figure11:Aug2019survey,estchangeinleaseratesfor12-year-old737-800NGs,overthenext18 Figure12:Oct2018 ------------------Figure13:Jan/Febsurvey Figure14:Oct2017 ------------------------Figure15:Aug2019-737-800NGmonthlyleaserateforecastinthousandsofU.S.Used737-800NGLeaseRateKeytakeaway:Fleetmanagerscontinuetoexpectlowerleaseratesonthe737-800NG.Inournewsurvey,theforecastaverageisfor-9%overthenext18months,thoughonedatapointlookslikeanoutlier.Withoutthesetwo,theaverageforecastforchangeinleaseratesoverthenext18monthswas-12%comparedtoourOct'18,Jan/Feb'18andOct'17surveysof-7%,-8%,and-10%.Figure11:Aug2019survey,estchangeinleaseratesfor12-year-old737-800NGs,overthenext18 Figure12:Oct2018 ------------------Figure13:Jan/Febsurvey Figure14:Oct2017 ------------------------Figure15:Aug2019-737-800NGmonthlyleaserateforecastinthousandsofU.S. 837AircraftLeasing–Proprietary737-800NG-July2019$210k$300k $240k$210k$210k$230k$170k$190k$210k$210k$220k$220k$230k$270k$290k$210k$220k$250k737-800NG-Jan2021$150k$220k$130k $200k$180k$180k$200k$150k$170k$190k$190k$200k$200k$210k$250k$270k$200k$210k$240k$350kestimated -29%-27%- -17%-14%-14%-13%-12%-11%-10%- -4% Used737-900NGLeaseRateKeytakeaway:Fleetmanagerscontinuetoexpectlowerleaseratesonthe737-900NG.Inournewsurvey,theforecastaverageisfor-18%overthenext18months.ThiscomparestoourOctober2018surveywhenfleetmanagersforecasta-8%changeover18monthscomparedtoourOct'18,Jan/Feb'18,andOct'17surveysof-8%,-10%,andFigure16:Aug2019survey,estchangeinleaseratesfor12yearold737-900NGs,overthenext18 Figure17:Oct2018 ----------Figure18:Jan/Feb2018 Figure19:Oct2017 ------------Figure20:Aug2019-737-900NGmonthlyleaserateforecastsUsed737-900NGLeaseRateKeytakeaway:Fleetmanagerscontinuetoexpectlowerleaseratesonthe737-900NG.Inournewsurvey,theforecastaverageisfor-18%overthenext18months.ThiscomparestoourOctober2018surveywhenfleetmanagersforecasta-8%changeover18monthscomparedtoourOct'18,Jan/Feb'18,andOct'17surveysof-8%,-10%,andFigure16:Aug2019survey,estchangeinleaseratesfor12yearold737-900NGs,overthenext18 Figure17:Oct2018 ----------Figure18:Jan/Feb2018 Figure19:Oct2017 ------------Figure20:Aug2019-737-900NGmonthlyleaserateforecastsinthousandsofU.S.Dollars 737-900NG-July$200k$310k$220k737-900NG-Jan$130k$210k$200kestimated-35%-32%--18%-18%- -18%-8AircraftLeasing–ProprietaryUsed737-800NGValuesKeytakeaway:Fleetmanagerscontinuetoexpectvaluesforused737-800NGtodecline.Inournewsurvey,theforecastaverageisfor-11%overthenext18monthscomparedtoourOct'18andJan/Feb'18surveysof-6%and-8%.Wenotethatlessors'gainsfromsellingaircrafthavebeenstrongoverthelastyearthough.Figure21:Aug2019survey,estimatedchangeinvaluesof12year737800NGs,overthenext18 Figure22:Oct2018 ------------Figure23:Jan/Feb2018 ----------Figure24:August2019-737-800NGaircraftUsed737-800NGValuesKeytakeaway:Fleetmanagerscontinuetoexpectvaluesforused737-800NGtodecline.Inournewsurvey,theforecastaverageisfor-11%overthenext18monthscomparedtoourOct'18andJan/Feb'18surveysof-6%and-8%.Wenotethatlessors'gainsfromsellingaircrafthavebeenstrongoverthelastyearthough.Figure21:Aug2019survey,estimatedchangeinvaluesof12year737800NGs,overthenext18 Figure22:Oct2018 ------------Figure23:Jan/Feb2018 ----------Figure24:August2019-737-800NGaircraftvalueforecastsinmillionsofU.S. 839AircraftLeasing–Proprietary737800NG-Current $34$28$25$18$18$20$24$25$17$17$21$24$24$16$15$20737800NG-Estimated $25$22$20$15$15$17$21$22$15$15$19$22$22$15$15$20-26%-21%-20%-17%-17%-15%-13%-12%-12%-12%-10%-8%-8%- -11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-Used737-900NGKeytakeaway:Fleetmanagersexpectvaluesforused737-900NGtodeclinebyoverthenext18months2018's-10%.comparedtoourOctober2018survey-9.5%andFigure25:Aug2019survey,est.changesinvaluesof12year737900NGs,overthenext18months Figure26:Oct2018 ----------Figure27:Jan/Feb Figure28:Aug2019-737-900NGaircraftvalueforecastsinmillionsofU.S.Dollars Used737-900NGKeytakeaway:Fleetmanagersexpectvaluesforused737-900NGtodeclinebyoverthenext18months2018's-10%.comparedtoourOctober2018survey-9.5%andFigure25:Aug2019survey,est.changesinvaluesof12year737900NGs,overthenext18months Figure26:Oct2018 ----------Figure27:Jan/Feb Figure28:Aug2019-737-900NGaircraftvalueforecastsinmillionsofU.S.Dollars AircraftLeasing–Proprietary737900NG-Current $36$22$19$23$20$17737900NG-Estimated $26$17$15$19$18$16-28%-23%-21%-17%-10%- -15%-15%-15%-15%-15%-15%-NewA320neoLeaseRateKeytakeaway:A320neoleaserateestimateswere+2.5%inourlatestsurveycomparedtoOct'18andOct'17's-1%and+2.5%.Weviewthisasapositiveimprovement.Figure29:Aug2019survey,est.changesinleaseratesfornewA320neos,overthenext18Figure30:Oct2018 --------Figure31:Oct2017 --------Figure32:Aug2019–A320neomonthlyleaseNewA320neoLeaseRateKeytakeaway:A320neoleaserateestimateswere+2.5%inourlatestsurveycomparedtoOct'18andOct'17's-1%and+2.5%.Weviewthisasapositiveimprovement.Figure29:Aug2019survey,est.changesinleaseratesfornewA320neos,overthenext18Figure30:Oct2018 --------Figure31:Oct2017 --------Figure32:Aug2019–A320neomonthlyleaserateinthousandsU.S. 3 7 AircraftLeasing–ProprietaryA320neo-July2019 $370k$300k$380k$360k$290k$360k$320k$390k$340k$330k$320k$320k$310k$280k$400k$330k$360k$320kA320neo-Jan $320k$290k$370k$360k$290k$360k$320k$400k$350k$340k$330k$330k$320k$290k$420k$350k$400k-14%-3%- 6%11% NewA321neoLeaseRateKeytakeaway:A321neoleaserateestimateswere+2.5%vsOct'18-0.5%andOctFigure33:Aug2019survey,est.changesinleaseratesfornewA321neos,overthenext18months Figure34:Oct2018 --------Figure35:Oct2017 Figure36:August2019–A321neomonthlyleaserateinthousandsNewA321neoLeaseRateKeytakeaway:A321neoleaserateestimateswere+2.5%vsOct'18-0.5%andOctFigure33:Aug2019survey,est.changesinleaseratesfornewA321neos,overthenext18months Figure34:Oct2018 --------Figure35:Oct2017 Figure36:August2019–A321neomonthlyleaserateinthousandsU.S. 2471AircraftLeasing–ProprietaryA321neo-July2019 $390k$390k$370k$410k$400k$330k$380k$480k$380k$380k$340k$360k$360k$350kA321neo-Jan $360k$390k$370k$410k$400k$330k$380k$490k$390k$390k$350k$380k$380k- 6% UsedA320NGLeaseRateKeytakeaway:A320NGleaserateestimateswere-12%inourlatestsurveycomparedtoOct'18's-6%,Jan/Feb'18's-7%,Oct'17's+2.5%.Figure37:Aug2019survey,estchangeinleaseratesfor12yearoldA320NGs,overthenext18months Figure38:Oct2018 --------------------------Figure39:Jan/Feb Figure40:Oct2017 ------------------Figure41:August2019–A320NGmonthlyleaserateforecastsinthousandsofU.S. UsedA320NGLeaseRateKeytakeaway:A320NGleaserateestimateswere-12%inourlatestsurveycomparedtoOct'18's-6%,Jan/Feb'18's-7%,Oct'17's+2.5%.Figure37:Aug2019survey,estchangeinleaseratesfor12yearoldA320NGs,overthenext18months Figure38:Oct2018 --------------------------Figure39:Jan/Feb Figure40:Oct2017 ------------------Figure41:August2019–A320NGmonthlyleaserateforecastsinthousandsofU.S. AircraftLeasing–ProprietaryA320ceo-July $280k$230k$200k$130k$180k$150k$160k$160k$180k$190k$190k$200k$200k$210k$230k$180k$220k$230k$240k$250k$280kA320ceo-Jan $180k$170k$150k$100k$140k$120k$140k$140k$160k$170k$170k$180k$180k$190k$210k$170k$210k$220k$230k$240k$280k -36%-26%-25%-23%-22%-20%-13%-13%-11%-11%-11%-10%-10%-10%-9%-6%-5%-4%-4%- -12%-12%-12%-12%-12%-12%-12%-12%-12%-12%-12%-12%-12%-12%-12%-12%-12%-12%-12%-12%-12%-UsedA321NGLeaseRateKeytakeaway:A321NGleaserateestimateswere-12%inourlatestsurveycomparedtoOct'18's-4%,Jan/Feb'18-6.5%,andOct'17's+4%.Figure42:Aug2019survey,estchangeinleaseratesfor12yearoldA321NGs,overthenext18months Figure43:Oct2018 ------------------------Figure44:Jan/Feb2018 Figure45:Oct2017 ------------------Figure46:August2019–A321NGmonthlyleaserateinthousandsU.S. 472AircraftLeasing–ProprietaryA321ceo-July2019$270kUsedA321NGLeaseRateKeytakeaway:A321NGleaserateestimateswere-12%inourlatestsurveycomparedtoOct'18's-4%,Jan/Feb'18-6.5%,andOct'17's+4%.Figure42:Aug2019survey,estchangeinleaseratesfor12yearoldA321NGs,overthenext18months Figure43:Oct2018 ------------------------Figure44:Jan/Feb2018 Figure45:Oct2017 ------------------Figure46:August2019–A321NGmonthlyleaserateinthousandsU.S. 472AircraftLeasing–ProprietaryA321ceo-July2019$270k$210k$220k$310k$240k$260k$180k$220k$230k$250k$210k$270k$240k$320kA321ceo-Jan2021$190k$160k$170k$250k$210k$230k$160k$200k$210k$230k$200k$260k$240k$330kestimated -30%-24%-23%-19%-13%-12%-11%-9%-9%-8%-5%-4%0% -12%-12%-12%-12%-12%-12%-12%-12%-12%-12%-12%-12%-12%-UsedA320CGValueKeytakeaway:FleetmanagersforecastusedA320CGvaluestofallbyalittleover10%overthenext18monthscomparedtotheSept/Oct'18forecastfor-5%andtheJan'18forecastfor-7.5%.Wenotethatvaluesatourlessors,asevidencedbystronggainonsaleoverthelast1.5yearshaveremainedrelativelystrong,whenfleetmanagerswerecallingfordeclines.Figure47:Aug2019survey,estchangesinvaluesof12yearA320CGs,overthenext18months Figure48:Oct2018 ----------------------Figure49:Jan/Feb2018 Figure50:August2019–A320CGaircraftvalueforecastsinmillionsofU.S. 7 UsedA320CGValueKeytakeaway:FleetmanagersforecastusedA320CGvaluestofallbyalittleover10%overthenext18monthscomparedtotheSept/Oct'18forecastfor-5%andtheJan'18forecastfor-7.5%.Wenotethatvaluesatourlessors,asevidencedbystronggainonsaleoverthelast1.5yearshaveremainedrelativelystrong,whenfleetmanagerswerecallingfordeclines.Figure47:Aug2019survey,estchangesinvaluesof12yearA320CGs,overthenext18months Figure48:Oct2018 ----------------------Figure49:Jan/Feb2018 Figure50:August2019–A320CGaircraftvalueforecastsinmillionsofU.S. 7 AircraftLeasing–ProprietaryA320ceo-Currentvalue $34$20$20$21$29$23$17$18$20$21$24$16$16$21$16$25$15A320ceo-Estimated $25$15$15$18$25$20$15$16$18$19$22$15$15$20$16$25-26%-25%-25%-14%-14%-13%-12%-11%-10%-10%-8%-6%-6%-5% 0%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-UsedA321CGValueKeytakeaway:FleetmanagersforecastthatusedA321CGvalueswillfallbyalittleover10%overthenext18monthscomparedtotheSept/Oct'18forecastfor-4.5%andtheJan'18forecastfor-7%.Wenotethatvaluesoverthelast1.5yearshaveremainedrelativelystrong,asevidencedbyaircraftlessorgain-on-sale,whenfleetmanagerswerecallingforFigure51:Aug2019survey,estchangesinvaluesof12yearA321CGs,overthenext18months Figure52:Oct2018 ----------------------Figure53:Jan/Feb2018 Figure54:AugustUsedA321CGValueKeytakeaway:FleetmanagersforecastthatusedA321CGvalueswillfallbyalittleover10%overthenext18monthscomparedtotheSept/Oct'18forecastfor-4.5%andtheJan'18forecastfor-7%.Wenotethatvaluesoverthelast1.5yearshaveremainedrelativelystrong,asevidencedbyaircraftlessorgain-on-sale,whenfleetmanagerswerecallingforFigure51:Aug2019survey,estchangesinvaluesof12yearA321CGs,overthenext18months Figure52:Oct2018 ----------------------Figure53:Jan/Feb2018 Figure54:August2019–A321CGaircraftvalueforecastsinmillionsofU.S.Dollars 4 72 AircraftLeasing–ProprietaryA321ceo-Currentvalue $38$18$25$27$19$20$23$24$30$25$30A321ceo-Estimatedvalue $26$15$22$24$17$18$21$22$28$24$30y/ychange -32%-17%-12%-11%-11%-10%-9%-8%-7%-4%0% -11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-11%-Used777-200ERLeaseRateKeytakeaway:Fleetmanagersforecastthatused777-200ERleaserateswillfallby~11.5%overthenext18monthscomparedtotheSept/Oct'18forecastforabout-13%andtheJan'18forecastfor-13%.Figure55:Aug2019survey,estchangesinleaseratesof12year777-200ERs,overthenext18monthsFigure56:Oct2018 ---------------Figure57:Jan/Feb2018 ----------Figure58:August2019–777-200ERleaseratesforecastsUsed777-200ERLeaseRateKeytakeaway:Fleetmanagersforecastthatused777-200ERleaserateswillfallby~11.5%overthenext18monthscomparedtotheSept/Oct'18forecastforabout-13%andtheJan'18forecastfor-13%.Figure55:Aug2019survey,estchangesinleaseratesof12year777-200ERs,overthenext18monthsFigure56:Oct2018 ---------------Figure57:Jan/Feb2018 ----------Figure58:August2019–777-200ERleaseratesforecastsinthousandsU.S. AircraftLeasing–Proprietary777-200ER-July2019$150k$300k$400k$1,000k$370k777-200ER-Jan2021$100k$260k$350k$900k$350kestimated -33%-13%-13%- -5%- -13%-13%-13%-13%-13%-Used777-300ERLeaseRateKeytakeaway:Fleetmanagersforecastthatused777-300ERleaserateswillfallby9%overthenext18monthscomparedtotheSept/Oct'18forecastforabout-10.5%andtheJan'18forecastfor-9%.Figure59:Aug2019survey,estchangesinleaseratesof12year777-300ERs,overthenext18 Figure60:Oct2018 ----------Figure61:Jan/Feb2018 ----------Figure62:August2019–777-ERleaseforecastsinthousandsofU.S.Used777-300ERLeaseRateKeytakeaway:Fleetmanagersforecastthatused777-300ERleaserateswillfallby9%overthenext18monthscomparedtotheSept/Oct'18forecastforabout-10.5%andtheJan'18forecastfor-9%.Figure59:Aug2019survey,estchangesinleaseratesof12year777-300ERs,overthenext18 Figure60:Oct2018 ----------Figure61:Jan/Feb2018 ----------Figure62:August2019–777-ERleaseforecastsinthousandsofU.S. 3AircraftLeasing–Proprietary777-300ER-July2019$200k$460k$410k$1,140k$320k777-300ER-Jan2021$150k$400k$380k$1,100k$310kestim