世界银行-《缅甸经济监测》2023年12月：冲突中的挑战（英）

ChallengesamidconflictMyanmarEconomicMonitorJune2023iTheWorldBankChallengesamidconflictMyanmarEconomicMonitorMYANMAR

ECONOMICMONITOR:CHALLENGESAMIDCONFLICTDecember2023December2023iTheWorldBankChallengesamidconflictMyanmarEconomicMonitorPreface

andAcknowledgementsThe

Myanmar

Economic

Monitor

(MEM)

is

published

semiannually

and

producedby

the

World

Bank’s

Myanmar

office.

This

edition

was

prepared

by

a

team

comprisingKim

Alan

Edwards

(Program

Leader

and

Senior

Economist,

Task

Team

Leader),Kemoh

Mansaray

(Senior

Economist,

Task

Team

Leader),

Thi

Da

Myint

(CountryEconomist),

Faya

Hayati

(Senior

Economist),

and

Aka

Kyaw

Min

Maw

(Consultant).The

MEM

was

developed

under

the

guidance

of

Sebastian

Eckardt

(PracticeManager,

Macroeconomics,

Trade,

and

Investment)

and

Mariam

J.

Sherman

(CountryDirector).Theteamis

gratefulfor

theclosecollaborationandinputs

providedbyIldrimValley(Public

Sector

Specialist),

Pike

Pike

Aye

(Public

Sector

Management

Specialist),Sutirtha

Sinha

Roy

(Economist),

Smita

Wagh

(Senior

Financial

Sector

Specialist),Nang

Htay

Htay

(Financial

Sector

Specialist),

Valens

Mwumvaneza

(SeniorAgriculture

Economist),

Yashodhan

Ghorpade

(Senior

Economist),

Soonhwa

Yi(Senior

Economist),

Tara

Beteille

(Senior

Economist

and

Program

Leader),

MateoAmbrosio

Albala

(Consultant),

Nay

Nwe

Linn

Maung

(Consultant),

Myoe

Myint(SeniorEnergySpecialist),JoonkyungSeong(SeniorEnergySpecialist),MyintKyaw(Operations

Officer),

Sadig

Aliyev

(Program

Leader),

Win

Htein

Lin

(Consultant),Patrick

Barron

(Adviser),

Khin

Thida

Maw

(Country

Officer,

IFC)

and

DaisukeFukuzawa(Economist).During

the

preparation

of

the

MEM,

the

team

discussed

recent

economicdevelopments

with

several

business

associations

and

private

firms

and

greatlyappreciates

their

time

and

insights.

The

team

benefitted

from

data

shared

by

theRetailers’Association.The

team

would

like

to

thank

Aiden

Benedict

Glendinning,

Kyaw

Soe

Lynn,

MarkFelsenthal,

and

the

ECR

team

for

their

support

and

guidance

on

publication

andoutreach;

Aye

Me

Me

Tun,

May

Oo

Mon,

and

May

Zun

Thiri

Aung

for

excellentadministrative

support;

Sai

Nay

Lin

fordata

assistanceandforexcellentassistance

informattingandfinalizingthe

report.The

views

expressed

in

the

MEM

are

those

of

the

authors

and

do

not

necessarilyreflecttheviews

oftheWorldBank

Group,itsExecutiveDirectors,or

thecountriesthey

represent.

The

World

Bank

does

not

guarantee

the

accuracy

of

the

data

includedin

this

work.

The

boundaries,

colors,

denominations,

and

other

information

shownon

any

mapinthis

work

do

not

imply

any

judgmentonthe

partof

The

World

Bankconcerning

thelegal

status

ofany

territory

or

the

endorsementoracceptance

of

suchboundaries.Cover

and

chapter

photographs

are

the

copyright

of

the

World

Bank.

All

rightsreserved.CoverimageprovidedbyZawWinnNaing.December2023iiTheWorldBankChallengesamidconflictMyanmarEconomicMonitorFor

information

about

the

World

Bank

and

its

activities

in

Myanmar,

please

visit/en/country/myanmarTobeincludedonanemaildistributionlistforthe

MEMseriesandrelatedpublications,

pleasevisit/en/country/myanmar/brief/monitoring

oremailmyanmarmonitoring@.Forquestionsandcommentsrelatingto

thispublication,pleasecontactmmon@.December2023iiiTheWorldBankChallengesamidconflictMyanmarEconomicMonitorTableofContentsPrefaceandAcknowledgements

...............................................................................................................................iiAbbreviations......................................................................................................................................................

viiiExecutiveSummary................................................................................................................................................1I.

RecentEconomicDevelopments.......................................................................................................................7A.

Economicconditionshavebecomemorevolatileoverthepastsix

months..............................................7B.

Economicindicatorshaveweakened,reflectingheightenedvolatilityand

uncertainty.............................8C.

Consumerpriceinflationremainshigh

...........................................................................................................16D.

Therehas

beensubstantialvolatilityinthekyatexchange

rate

...................................................................19E.

Thefinancial

sectoris

exposedtoseveral

risks..............................................................................................22F.

Myanmar’stradedeficitwidened,increasingbalanceofpayments

pressures...........................................25G.

Fiscalspaceremainsconstrained,withrevenueswellbelowpre-pandemiclevels...................................32H.

Economicshocksandconflictcontinuetonegativelyimpactlivelihoods.

...............................................36II.OutlookandRisks..................................................................................................................................38III.Myanmar’sgarmentindustry:Potentialcurtailed.......................................................................................43A.

Introduction.........................................................................................................................................................43B.

Myanmar’sgarmentindustry

hassignificantscopeforfurtherdevelopment...........................................44C.

Recentdevelopmentshavecurtailedtheindustry’spotential

......................................................................47D.

Summaryandconclusion...................................................................................................................................51December2023ivTheWorldBankChallengesamidconflictMyanmarEconomicMonitorLISTOFFIGURESFigureES1:ConflictintensityacrossMyanmar............................................................................................................5FigureES2:Exchangerates

.............................................................................................................................................5FigureES3:CPI

inflation

.................................................................................................................................................5FigureES4:Firms'averageoperatingcapacity..............................................................................................................5FigureES5:Manufacturing

PurchasingManagers’Index...........................................................................................6FigureES6:Merchandiseexports

...................................................................................................................................6FigureES7:

RealGDPestimatesandprojections........................................................................................................6FigureES8:Myanmargarmentexporttrends...............................................................................................................6Figure1:Conflictintensityacross

Myanmar..................................................................................................................7Figure2:Powergenerationandimports.........................................................................................................................8Figure3:Electricityoutagesperday(hours)..................................................................................................................8Figure4:Firms'operatingcapacity,sales,andprofits

..................................................................................................9Figure5:Challengesto

firms'operations(shareof

firmsreporting)inSeptember2023

.......................................9Figure6:Numberof

onlinejobpostings......................................................................................................................10Figure7:GrossValueAddedatpurchaserpricesbysector(%

oftotal),2019-2022

.........................................11Figure8:ManufacturingPurchasingManagers’Index

...............................................................................................12Figure9:

RegionalManufacturingPurchasingManagers’

Indices............................................................................12Figure10:Constructionpermits(number)andproductionofconstructionmaterials(ton)

...............................13Figure11:

Totalnumberofconstructionpermitsissuedin

Yangon........................................................................13Figure12:

ResidentialsalespriceindexinYangon

....................................................................................................13Figure13:Naturalgasexportvolume

...........................................................................................................................14Figure14:InternationalarrivalsinMyanmar

...............................................................................................................15Figure15:AveragedailyYBSpassengersby

month...................................................................................................16Figure16:Myanmarpassenger-miles/freightton-milesviarailway

.........................................................................16Figure17:CPI

inflation

...................................................................................................................................................17Figure18:Contributionto

CPIinflation(annualaverage)

........................................................................................17Figure19:CPI

inflation(YoY)vschangesin

USD/kyatexchangerate(YoY)

.....................................................18Figure20:Fuel

priceandkeydrivers,

January2021=100..........................................................................................18Figure21:

Recentfoodprice

changes(MoM)..............................................................................................................18Figure22:

Regionalchangesinriceprices(lowquality)betweenAprilandOctober2023

.................................19Figure23:

Referencepricevs

themarketpriceof

edible

oil(kyatperviss)............................................................19Figure24:

Recentexchangeratedevelopments(kyatperUSD)...............................................................................20Figure25:Foreignexchange

transactions(billionkyats)............................................................................................20Figure26:Non-performingloans(percent)

.................................................................................................................23Figure27:Deposits,creditandassetsto

GDP............................................................................................................23Figure28:Loansoutstandingandsavings-MFIs.......................................................................................................25Figure29:Numberof

clients-MFIs.............................................................................................................................25Figure30:

Tradetrends....................................................................................................................................................25Figure31:GoodsexportsofEAPcountries................................................................................................................26Figure32:Exportsbysector...........................................................................................................................................26Figure33:MyanmargasexportstoChinaandThailand............................................................................................27Figure34:Garmentexportstothemajormarkets......................................................................................................27December2023vTheWorldBankChallengesamidconflictMyanmarEconomicMonitorFigure35:Agriculturalexporttrends.............................................................................................................................28Figure36:Importtrends..................................................................................................................................................28Figure37:Dieselandgasolineimports

.........................................................................................................................28Figure38:Otherintermediateproductimports...........................................................................................................29Figure39:Consumerproductimports..........................................................................................................................29Figure40:LandimportsfromThailandandChinabymajorlandborderpost.....................................................30Figure41:ExportstoThailandandChinabymajorlandborderpost....................................................................30Figure42:Myanmarlandexportsbyproduct..............................................................................................................30Figure43:Myanmar’slandimportsbyproduct...........................................................................................................30Figure44:FDIcommitments.........................................................................................................................................31Figure45:Fiscalaggregates(%

ofGDP)......................................................................................................................32Figure46:

Taxrevenuecomposition

.............................................................................................................................33Figure47:Nontaxrevenuecomposition.......................................................................................................................33Figure48:Compositionof

expenditurebyeconomicuses

(%ofGDP)

................................................................33Figure49:Compositionof

expenditurebygovernmentfunction(%

of

total

spending)

.....................................34Figure50:

Budgetoutturn,spendingandrevenueas

%of

thebudgetestimate....................................................35Figure51:

Budgetfinancing

needs(%

GDP)...............................................................................................................35Figure52:Quarterly

securitiesauctionof

T-BondsinMMK,Billions....................................................................35Figure53:Changesin

retailfoodprices(2017–2023)

..............................................................................................37Figure54:

RealGDPgrowthandcontributionsto

realgrowthby

sector(percent,

percentagepoints)............39Figure55:

RealGDPestimatesandprojections..........................................................................................................39Figure56:Inflationforecast............................................................................................................................................39Figure57:Currentaccount(percentof

GDP).............................................................................................................40Figure58:

RealGDP,

oldversus

newfiscalyear.........................................................................................................42Figure59:Myanmargarmentexporttrends.................................................................................................................43Figure60:Garmentworkers(%of

thelaborforce)

...................................................................................................45Figure61:Estimatedvalueaddedperworkerin2022

(US$)

....................................................................................45Figure62:Garmentexportsperworkerin

2022(US$)..............................................................................................45Figure63:Averagemonthly

wagesofgarmentworkers(US$).................................................................................46Figure64:Dailyunitlaborcostof

valueadded(US$)in

2022..................................................................................47Figure65:Dailywage(US$)in2022..............................................................................................................................47Figure66:Garmentexportpercapitatrend.................................................................................................................48Figure67:Globalmarketshare,2012-2022

...............................................................................................................48Figure68:Poweroutagesandestimated

saleslost......................................................................................................49Figure69:

Relianceonoff-gridgenerators

...................................................................................................................49Figure70:Exportleadtimesoffinishedgoodsin2022.............................................................................................49Figure71:

Theshareoffirmsexperiencingchallengeswithhiringproductionworkers

......................................51LISTOFTABLESTableES1Economicdataand

projections

...................................................................................................................3Table1SelectedMacroeconomicIndicators(annualpercentchangeunlessindicated

otherwise).....................38December2023viTheWorldBankChallengesamidconflictMyanmarEconomicMonitorLISTOFBOXESBox1:Emergenceof

multipleexchangerates.............................................................................................................21Box2:

Recentrestrictionson

cross-borderpayments

................................................................................................23Box3:

Borderdisruptionsandtheirpotentialimpacts

on

trade...............................................................................29Box4:Aligning

macroeconomicindicatorswithMyanmar’sApril

–Marchfiscalyear

.......................................41December2023viiTheWorldBankChallengesamidconflictMyanmarEconomicMonitorAbbreviationsACLEDAML/CFTASEANATMbblArmedConflictLocationandEventDataProjectAnti-moneylaunderingandcounteringthefinancingof

terrorismAssociationofSoutheastNationsAutomated

TellerMachineBarrelof

Crude

OilCBMCentralBankof

MyanmarCBRsCMPCorrespondent

bankingrelationshipsCut-Make-PackCOICOPCPIClassificationofIndividual

ConsumptionAccordingto

PurposeConsumerPrice

IndexCSOCentralStatisticalOrganizationDevelopment

Bankof

SingaporeLimitedEthnicArmed

OrganizationDBSEAOEAPEastAsiaandPacificEUEuropeanUnionFAOFoodandAgriculture

OrganizationFinancialActionTaskForceFATFFDIForeignDirectInvestmentFRDFinancialRegulatoryDepartmentFiscalYearFYGDPGSPGrossDomesticProductGeneralizedSystemof

PreferencesInternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstituteInternationalOrganizationforMigrationLiquefiedPetroleumGasIFPRIIOMLPGMEMMFTBMGMAMICBMFIMyanmarEconomicMonitorMyanmarForeignTrade

BankMyanmarGarmentManufacturerAssociationMyanmarInvestmentandCommercialBankMicro

FinanceInstitutionMMKMoMMOGEMOPFMHWSMyanmarKyatMonth-on-MonthMyanmaOilandGasEnterpriseMinistryof

PlanningandFinanceMyanmarHouseholdWelfareSurveyDecember2023viiiTheWorldBankChallengesamidconflictMyanmarEconomicMonitorMLCSMSMEMUFGNPLOBSOCBCPGMFPMIMyanmarLivingConditionsSurveyMicro,SmallandMediumEnterprisesMitsubishiUFJFinancialGroupNonperformingloansOutward

Bound

SingaporeOverseas-Chinese

Banking

CorporationPactGlobal

MicrofinanceFundMyanmarPurchasingManagers’IndexPointof

SalePOSROAROESOEReturnonassetsReturnonequityState-OwnedEnterpriseState-OwnedEconomicEnterpriseUnitedKingdomsSEEUKUOBUSDUSUnitedOverseasBankUSdollarUnitedStatesUSDAWFPYBSUnitedStatesDepartmentofAgricultureWorld

FoodProgrammeYangonBus

Servicesyoyyear-on-yearDecember2023ixTheWorldBankChallengesamidconflictMyanmarEconomicMonitorExecutive

SummaryEconomicconditionshavedeterioratedinthepastsixmonths,withthe

signs

ofrecoveryobservedinthe

first

half

of

2023

proving

to

be

fragile

and

short-lived.

Macroeconomic

volatility

resumed,

with

the

kyatdepreciatingbyaround18

percentagainsttheUS

dollar

overthe

three

monthstothe

endof

September.

Morerecently,

armed

conflict

has

escalated

across

the

country,

severely

disrupting

lives

and

livelihoods,

blockingmajor

transport

routes

and

trade

channels,

and

heightening

uncertainty

around

the

economic

outlook.

Thelatest

available

CPI

data

reveals

inflation

of

28.6

percent

over

the

year

to

June

2023,

but

the

subsequent

kyatdepreciation

and

rise

in

conflict

has

led

to

a

further

increase

in

prices

in

the

period

since.

Power

shortages

havepersisted,

creating

further

challenges

for

businesses

and

households.

And

while

the

authorities

have

made

arange

of

frequent

and

in

some

cases

punitive

market

interventions,

they

have

generally

been

unsuccessful

inrestoring

stabilityinkeyprices.Conflict

has

escalated

across

much

of

Myanmar

since

October

causing

displacement,

labor

shortages,and

increased

logistics

costs

(Figure

ES

1).

The

UN

estimates

that

more

than

half

a

million

people

havebeen

newly

displaced

due

to

the

rise

in

conflict

since

late

October,

adding

to

the

2

million

people

who

werealready

displaced.

Armed

clashes

have

disrupted

vital

trade

routes,

particularly

in

the

northern

Shan

state,

whichis

a

major

hub

for

border

trade

with

China.

Operations

at

several

border

crossings

with

Thailand

and

Indiahave

also

been

disrupted.

This

has

implications

for

Myanmar’s

international

trade

across

land

borders,

whichaccounted

for

40

percent

of

its

exports

and

21

percent

of

its

imports

in

the

six

months

to

September

2023.

Keytransport

routes

within

Myanmar

have

been

blocked,

restricting

the

movement

of

people

and

trade

of

goods,andleadingtoshortagesoffoodandotherbasicitemsinlocalmarkets.Renewed

pressure

onthe

exchange

rate

andinflationhas

been

triggeredby

a

combinationofinternaland

external

developments

(Figure

ES

2

and

Figure

ES

3).

The

depreciation

coincided

with

theannouncement

of

U.S.

sanctions

on

two

large

state-owned

banks,

the

imposition

of

restrictions

on

cross-borderpaymentsbyinternationalbanks,andthelaunchofahigherdenomination20,000-kyatbanknotewhichfueledrenewed

inflation

and

devaluation

expectations.

Fears

of

a

reduction

in

foreign

exchange

inflows

stemmingfromthesedevelopmentsreinforcedongoing

pressureon

thebalanceof

paymentsassociatedwithareductionin

merchandise

exports,

a

moribund

international

tourism

sector,

and

a

lack

of

foreign

investment.

The

resultingexchange

rate

depreciation

is

being

reflected

in

price

pressures

which

have

been

exacerbated

by

elevated

conflictand

logistics

constraints.

According

to

WFP

data,

the

prices

of

six

major

food

items

(rice,

pulses,

edible

oil,onions,

eggs

and

tomatoes)

have

increased

by

an

average

of

16.6

percent

annually

between

2017

and

June

2023.Various

efforts

to

fix

prices

of

fuel

and

food

items

at

non-market

levels

have

resulted

in

supply

disruptions

andinseveralcaseshaveproven

unsustainable.Interventionsto

encourageforeigncurrencyinflows

andregulate

exchangerateshavegenerallybeenineffective

in

restoring

stability,

while

exacerbating

uncertainty

and

market

distortions.

Foreigncurrency

surrender

requirements

have

been

maintained

(though

partially

eased),

limiting

Myanmar

exporters’ability

to

benefit

from

the

depreciating

kyat.

However,

these

measures

have

done

little

to

address

foreigncurrency

shortages.

Multiple

exchange

rates

are

in

operation

in

Myanmar

and

the

spread

between

the

officialand

the

parallel

market

rate

has

widened,

with

persistent

shortages

of

foreign

currency

at

the

below

marketrates.

This

in

turn

hasconstrained

the

issuance

of

import

licenses,

contributing

to