第1章 全新世介绍

全新世大暖期1、大暖期GreatOptimum8.5-3.0kaBPHypsithermal Megathermal2、中世纪暖期MedievalWarmPeriod900-1300AD3、小冰期LittleIceAge1550-1850AD4、全球平均气温（现代气候变暖）近万年中国东部(a)、西部(b)及全国（c）年平均气温对20世纪的偏差（分辨率250a)YD之后，大约一万年前，气候开始回暖，进入全新世。全新世中，温度也有波动，分为三个时期：1、进入全新世后的2ka，气温回暖，波动较大（新石器时代）2、8.5kaBP–3.0kaBP，气候温暖、稳定（黄金期，人类文明发展于此时）3、之后，开始变冷，但又有波动：中世纪暖期、小冰期全新世中的冷期（kaBP）名称

新冰期

小冰期第三冰期第二冰期第一冰期

序号012345678作者资料10.41.43.04.05.48.09.410.311.0Bond等深海沉积20.1,0.3

王绍武史料30.5~1.7~3.0

竺可桢史料40.3,0.51.73.03.5~4.0

龚高法考古，史料50.3,0.5

3.04.05.58.5~8.7

施雅风孢粉，综合6

3.85.08.5

安芷生黄土7

3.0

5.08.5~8.8

10.510.9王苏民湖泊80.41.53.04.05.28.89.7

姚檀栋冰芯全球冰量根据冰川进退推算的全新世以来的温度变化高纬湖泊沉积，氧同位素低纬湖泊沉积，氧同位素非洲湖泊水位全新世大暖期温暖、湿润，温度比现在高2度左右Alti-thermalHypsi-thermalClimaticOptimum

中世纪暖期

近1.2ka中国东部（a）、西部（b）及全国（c）年平均气温对20世纪的偏差（分辨率50a）,虚线为整个序列的平均值Lamb小冰期

近1.2ka中国东部（a）、西部（b）及全国（c）年平均气温对20世纪的偏差（分辨率50a）,虚线为整个序列的平均值1380年以来的中国平均气温.(a)中国北部,(b)中国东部,(c)整个中国,单位

C.(王绍武等2000)近千年温度变化●Studiesontemperaturechangesduringthelastmillenniumareimportantto(1)understandthenaturalclimatevariability(2)comparewiththatduringthe20thcentury(3)attributetheglobalwarmingduring20thcenturytonaturaloranthropogenicfactor,orboth

SeriesWangetal.1996(W)Jonesetal.1998(J)Mannetal.1999(M)Crowleyetal.2000(C)Briffa,2000(B)Esperetal.2002(E)Briffaetal,2002Easperetal,2002千年平均温度序列资料来源*代号年轮冰芯史料孢粉珊瑚洞穴冰川海冰作者MJCBEW9(9)8(6)8(8)7(3)14(14)8(8)3(3)4(1)3(3)

8(8)

2(0)2(2)

7(7)

1(1)

2(2)

3(0)

3(3)

2(2)

1(1)

Mannetal.(1999)[3]Jonesetal.(1998)[4]Crowleyetal.(2000)[5]Briffa(2000)[6]Esperetal.(2002)[7王绍武等(1996)[9]*括弧中数字为达到900年以上长度的资料站数

Table1Numbersofsitesusedinreconstruction

oftemperatureseriesforthelastmillennium

No.NorthernHemisphereSouthernHemisphereGlobeAuthorsMJCBEW8(8)10(4)15(15)7(3)14(14)20(20)4(4)7(3)

10(10)12(12)17(7)15(15)7(3)14(14)30(30)Mannetal.(1999)Jonesetal.(1998)Crowleyetal.(2000)]Briffa(2000)

Esperetal.(2002)Wangetal.(1996b)

Table2Datasourcesoftemperaturereconstruction(abbreviationasthesameasinTable1)

DatasourcesMJCBEWTree-ring9(9)8(6)8(8)7(3)14(14)8(8)Icecore3(3)4(1)3(3)8(8)Documentary2(0)2(2)7(7)Pollen1(1)2(2)Coral3(0)Borehole3(3)Glacier2(2)Seaice1(1)W序列所用30个代用资料站的地理位置

W序列所用30个站的近千年气温变化（℃）千年温度序列的比较Table3Forcingfactorsusedinsimulation

FactorsDatasourcesAuthorsSolaractivityTree-ring14CStuiveretal.(1986)Volcanism(NH)IcecoreacidityPorter(1986)Volcanism(SH)IcecoreparticlesMosley-Thompsonetal.(1982)CO2IcecoreHoughtonetal.(1995)ENSOIcecoreDiazetal.(1994)Table4Cross-correlationcoefficientsbetweenthetemperatureseriesforthelastmillenniumNoMJCBEWSM×0.770.790.600.390.730.65J

×0.810.690.490.740.56C

×0.660.510.850.76B

×0.810.840.59E

×0.670.48W

×0.83S

×0.100.110.160.170.180.180.13

Table4Cross-correlationcoefficientsbetweenthetemperatureseriesforthelastmillenniumNoMJCBEWSM×0.770.790.600.390.730.65J

×0.810.690.490.740.56C

×0.660.510.850.76B

×0.810.840.59E

×0.670.48W

×0.83S

×0.100.110.160.170.180.180.13

Table4Cross-correlationcoefficientsbetweenthetemperatureseriesforthelastmillenniumNoMJCBEWSM×0.770.790.600.390.730.65J

×0.810.690.490.740.56C

×0.660.510.850.76B

×0.810.840.59E

×0.670.48W

×0.83S

×0.100.110.160.170.180.180.13

Table4Cross-correlationcoefficientsbetweenthetemperatureseriesforthelastmillenniumNoMJCBEWSM×0.770.790.600.390.730.65J

×0.810.690.490.740.56C

×0.660.510.850.76B

×0.810.840.59E

×0.670.48W

×0.83S

×0.100.110.160.170.180.180.13

Table4Cross-correlationcoefficientsbetweenthetemperatureseriesforthelastmillenniumNoMJCBEWSM×0.770.790.600.390.730.65J

×0.810.690.490.740.56C

×0.660.510.850.76B

×0.810.840.59E

×0.670.48W

×0.83S

×0.100.110.160.170.180.180.13theseriesaregiveninTable4.

Table4Cross-correlationcoefficientsbetweenthetemperatureseriesforthelastmillenniumNoMJCBEWSM×0.770.790.600.390.730.65J

×0.810.690.490.740.56C

×0.660.510.850.76B

×0.810.840.59E

×0.670.48W

×0.83S

×0.100.110.160.170.180.180.13

NoMJCBEWSM×0.770.790.600.390.730.65J

×0.810.690.490.740.56C

×0.660.510.850.76B

×0.810.840.59E

×0.670.48W

×0.83S

×0.100.110.160.170.180.180.13

NoMJCBEWSM×0.770.790.600.390.730.65J

×0.810.690.490.740.56C

×0.660.510.850.76B

×0.810.840.59E

×0.670.48W

×0.83S

×0.100.110.160.170.180.180.13

NoMJCBEWSM×0.770.790.600.390.730.65J

×0.810.690.490.740.56C

×0.660.510.850.76B

×0.810.840.59E

×0.670.48W

×0.83S

×0.100.110.160.170.180.180.13

NoMJCBEWSM×

0.770.790.600.390.730.65J×

0.810.