世界经济论坛-2024年增长前景报告（英）-2024.1

The

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GrowthReport

2024I

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4Cover:AntonMaksimov,UnsplashContentsPreface34ExecutivesummaryIntroduction61TheFutureofGrowthFramework1.1Fromthegrowthwehavetothegrowthweneed1.2Overviewofframeworkconstruction1.3Trade-offs,

synergiesandpolicychoices2Qualifyinggrowth88911132.1Globalresults132.2Resultsbypillar182.3GrowthPathwayArchetypesConclusion28353CountryDashboardsAppendixA:MethodologyA1FrameworkdesigncriteriaA2IndicatorselectionA3Normalization36251251251251252252254254256259265277280289A4AggregationA5ClusteringAppendixB:IndicatordetailsB1FrameworkoverviewB2CountrygroupsB3IndicatorselectionB4IndicatordescriptionB5NormalizationContributorsEndnotesDisclaimerThisdocumentispublishedbytheWorldEconomicForumasacontributiontoaproject,insightareaorinteraction.Thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedhereinarearesultofacollaborativeprocessfacilitatedandendorsedbytheWorldEconomicForumbutwhoseresultsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheWorldEconomicForum,northeentiretyofitsMembers,Partnersorotherstakeholders.©2024WorldEconomicForum.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrecording,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem.TheFutureofGrowthReport20242PrefaceSaadiaZahidiManagingDirector,WorldEconomicForumGlobalgrowthhaslostmomentum.Onaverage,GDPgrowthhasdeclinedfrom

morethan2%inadvanced

economies

and

nearly

6%

in

emerging

anddevelopingeconomiesintheearly2000stolessthan1.5%andlessthan2%inthepost-COVIDperiod.challenges.Thesearchetypesofferpotentialpolicyinspirationforcountrieswithsimilarconstraintsandopportunities.Finally,theframeworkallowsfordevelopingaglobalpicture:whileglobalaveragesmasksignificantdisparitiesbetweencountries,reflectingdiversepolicyprioritiesandimplementationoutcomes,ouranalysisrevealsthattheglobaleconomyisonlyhalfwaytowardscombiningtoday’s

growthwithlonger-terminnovativeness,inclusiveness,sustainabilityandresilience.Thissustainedslowdowningrowthhasbeencompoundedbyasuccessionofcrises.Itisnowmorethan15yearssincethebeginningoftheglobalfinancialcrisis,yetitcontinuestocastashadow,notleastinthepolicychoicesofmanyadvancedeconomies.TheCOVID-19pandemicandtheshockoflockdownsleftbehindanaftermathofasurgeinpublicdebtlevelsandreversalofglobaldevelopmentprogress.Geopoliticaltensionsandconflictshavefurtherreshapedaninternationalorderthatisincreasinglymultipolar,withfar-reachingimplicationsThisworkbuildsuponandowesa

particulardebttotheForum’s

GlobalCompetitivenessIndex,whichhaslongespousedtakinga

comprehensiveapproachtogrowthandproductivity.Since2020,wehaveengagedinextensiveconsultationsondevelopinga

newconceptualframeworkfitfora

newglobalcontext.Wewouldliketothank,inparticular,themembersoftheGlobalFutureCouncilontheFutureofGrowthfortheirfeedback,thedialoguesheldattheWorldEconomicForum’s

inauguralGrowthSummit,andtheviewsofthenetworkofPartnerInstitutesoftheForumthatsupportdatagatheringforthisframeworkandotherinsightsfromtheForum.Finally,wewouldliketoexpressourgratitudetothecoreteamthatdevelopedthisreport–

JesseCaemmerer,AengusCollins,RobertoCrotti,PhilippGrosskurth,KaterynaKarunska,Till

Leopold,andSriharshaMasabathula–

andtoRickyLiandAttilioDiBattistafortheirsupport.fortechnology,growthanddevelopment.Overshadowingthesedevelopmentsisthegrowingawarenessthattheworld’s

risingtemperatureposesgravedangerstothelong-termprospectsforhumanity,withtheworldcurrentlyontrackforatemperaturerisesignificantlyabovethetargetssetoutintheParisAgreementin2015.Thekeyquestionforthispivotalmomentisnotwhethertheworldstillneedseconomicgrowth,butratherhowthatgrowthisachievedandwhetheritisalignedwithotherimportantnationalandglobalpriorities.ThisfirsteditionoftheWorldEconomicForum’s

Future

ofGrowthReport

aimstoprovideanoverviewofglobalgrowthtrendsandacomprehensiveanalysisofthequalityofthesegrowthtrajectories.ThisreportwillserveasthebasisfortheworkoftheWorldEconomicForum’s

FutureofGrowthInitiative,usingthisframeworkasafoundation,atwo-yearefforttofosterdialoguebetweenpolicy-makers,businessleadersandacademicsonchartingneweconomicgrowthpathways.We

inviteleaderstojointhisinitiative,embracingtheurgencyandambitionrequiredtoaddressthemultifacetedchallengesoutlinedinthisreport.TheFutureofGrowthFrameworkintroducedinthisreportunderscoresthataconventionalGDPgrowthpictureisincompletewithoutadeeperunderstandingoftheunderlyingnatureandqualityofgrowth.Theframeworkadoptsamultidimensionalapproach,structuredaroundfourpillars,tocomplementandqualifytraditionalmeasuresofgrowth:innovativeness,inclusiveness,sustainabilityandresilience.Foreacheconomycoveredinthereport,weprovideaFutureofGrowthDashboardthatcansupportpolicy-makers,academics,civilsocietyandbusinessleadersinassessingthebalancebetweengrowthandotherpriorities.Thereportalsoidentifiesdiversearchetypesofgrowthpathwaysandthecountriesthatfitwithinthem,eachreflectinguniquecharacteristicsandThefutureofgrowthmustshifttoabetterbalancebetweenquantityandquality.Asimple“return”toGDPgrowthisnotenough.Instead,eachcountrymustundertakeauniqueandcomplexjourneytowardsachievinginnovative,inclusive,sustainableandresilientgrowth,whilecontributingtoglobalresilience.Thisreportaimstoserveasacalltoactionforleaderstocriticallyreassessandrecalibratetheirgrowthmodelsandpoliciesforaneweconomicera.TheFutureofGrowthReport20243ExecutivesummaryGlobalgrowthhasbeenslowerinthepastdecadecomparedtopreviousones,andthepost-pandemicrecoveryislosingmomentum.Between2018and2023–onaverage–high-incomeeconomies’GDP(inpurchasing-power-parityterms)grewby1.4%annuallyacrosseconomiesfeaturedinthereport,by2.2%acrossupper-middleincomeeconomies,by3.1%acrosslower-middleincomeeconomies,andby3.1%acrosslow-incomeeconomies.TotalglobalGDPtodayishigherthanitspre-pandemiclevel,butgrowthratesin2023remainbelow4%acrossallincomegroups.–Innovativenessisthedimensionthatattainsthelowestglobalscore(withaglobalaverageof45.2outof100).Thesustainabilitydimension’sglobalaverageis46.8outof100,whiletheinclusivenessandresiliencedimensions’globalaveragescoresare55.9outof100and52.8outof100,respectively.Atanindividuallevel,noeconomyhasattainedapillarscorehigherthan80onanyoftheframework’sfourdimensions,where100isthetheoreticalmaximumoutcomepossible.–InnovativenessThisconventionalGDPgrowthpictureisincompletewithoutadeeperunderstandingoftheunderlyingnatureandqualityofgrowth,andwhetheritisinsynergywithglobalandnationalpriorities.Thequestionisnotwhethertheworldstillneedseconomicgrowth,buthowthegrowthcanbebetteralignedwithotherimportantpriorities.ThisreportprovidesaframeworkforlookingatgrowthinthecontextofitsqualityandservesasastartingpointfortheForum’s

FutureofGrowthInitiative.Digitalizationratesacrossadvancedanddevelopingeconomiesaredivergingratherthanconverging,leadingtopersistenteconomicdividesandmissedopportunitiesforinnovation.Inhigh-incomeeconomies,talentavailabilityisanincreasingbottlenecktofurtheradvanceinnovativeness,whileopeninganopportunityfortradeinservicesfromdevelopingeconomies.WithintheInnovativenesspillar’s

globalaverageof45.2arelargedifferencesacrosscountryincomegroups.High-incomeeconomies’averagescore(59.4)ismorethantwicethatoflow-incomeeconomies(26.8),andabout50%higherthanthatofupper-middleincomeeconomies(39.3),revealingacorrelationbetweentheinnovation-alignmentofcountries’growthtrajectoriesandtheirGDPpercapita.Frameworkoverview–TheFutureofGrowthFrameworkintroducesamultidimensionalapproachthatfocusesonevaluatingthequalityofgrowthandthebalancebetweenvariousprioritiesratherthanaggregatingthemintoasingleindex.Itisgroundedinfourpillarsthatassessthequalityofgrowth:Innovativeness,Inclusiveness,SustainabilityandResilience.–InclusivenessRisinginequalityofincomeandopportunityriskentrenchingheadwindstoinclusion.Widespreadaccesstobasicservices,inadditiontoadequatesocialprotection,willbekeytoinclusivegrowthindevelopedanddevelopingeconomies.TheInclusivenesspillar’sglobalaverageis55.9,withmarkedoutcomedifferencesacrossincomegroups.High-incomeeconomies’averageInclusivegrowthscore(68.9)ismorethantwicethatoflow-incomeeconomies(30.0),andabout50%higherthanthatoflower-middleincomeeconomies(44.8),highlightingastrongcorrelationbetweenlevelsofper-capitaincomeandinclusionoutcomes.Upper-middleincomeeconomies(54.8)onaverageexhibitasomewhatstrongerinclusivegrowthperformancecomparedtotheirshowingoninnovation,yetneverthelessscorewellbehindhigh-incomeseconomies.–Inadditiontoglobalanalysis,anaccompanyingsetofCountryDashboards

aimstosupportpolicy-makersinassessingthecharacterandnature

ofa

country’s

economicgrowth

andidentifytrade-offs

toresolve

orsynergiestoexploit.Eachdashboard

collatesanoverviewofGDP-derivedstatisticsaswellasalloftheframeworkdataforeachofthe107economiescovered.Qualifyinggrowth–Theworldeconomyasawholeishalfwaytowardsanidealtrajectoryoffullyinnovative,inclusive,sustainableandresilientgrowth.Countriesdifferconsiderablyintermsofpolicyprioritiessetaswellaspolicyimplementationresults.Globalaveragesdrawamixedpictureoftheworld’s

trajectorytowardinnovative,inclusive,sustainableandresilientgrowth.–SustainabilityInstitutionalcommitmentsareyettotranslateintosystemichardwiringofemissionsreductionTheFutureofGrowthReport20244intogrowthmodels.Greenfinanceandtechnologyarethemissinglinksonthepathtosustainability.TheSustainabilitypillar’s

globalaverageis46.8,asmostcountriescontinuetogrowinwaysthatarenotalignedwithclimatetargets.Income-grouptrendsforthispillardivergefromtheotherthreedimensionsoftheFutureofGrowthFramework,withlow-incomeeconomies(52.7)andlower-middleincomeeconomies(50.0)exhibiting,onaverage,strongersustainability-alignedgrowthcomparedtotherestoftheworld,offsettingweakerperformanceongreenfinanceandtechnologyduetolowerresourceusetodate.High-incomeeconomies(45.8)andupper-middleincomeeconomies(44.0),bycontrast,partiallycompensateforhigheremissionswithastrongerperformanceonenvironmentaltechnology.lowermiddleincomeeconomies’growthpathwayhasgenerallybeenfocusedonresilience,withhigherscoresonsustainabilitythanrichereconomiesbutroomtoimproveoninclusivenessandinnovativeness.WithanaverageGDPofUSD1,533percapita,lowincomeeconomies’growthpathwayisgenerallycharacterisedbyamuchlighterenvironmentalfootprintpercapita—resultinginahighsustainabilityperformance—butwithroomtoimproveonresilience,inclusivenessandinnovativeness.–Whileeverycountryhasauniquegrowthpathwayshapedbyawiderangeofcircumstantialfactors,thedatafromtheFutureofGrowthCountryDashboardshelpsidentifyclustersofcountrieswithsimilargrowthcharacteristics.We

grouptheseclustersintosevendistinct“growthpathwayarchetypes,”withtheaimtoidentifycountriesmostcloselyrelatedintheirgrowthcharacteristicsandoftenfacesimilarconstraintsandopportunities.Thisalsoallowspolicy-makerstoidentifyadditionalareasofimprovementandlooktocountriesthathaveleveragedopportunitiesforhighqualityindifferentways.Theresultingarchetypesexhibitsimilarhigh-levelpatterns,butwithuniquedistinctions.–ResilienceInward-lookingapproachesareinsufficientforresilience,butlocalizedeffortssuchasforstrengtheningfinancialarchitecture,arealsokey.Mostcountriesneedbetterpreparationandproactiveinvestmentfordemographicchange.Theglobalresiliencepillaraverageis52.8,withmoremoderateoutcomedifferencesacrosscountryincomegroupscomparedtotheInnovationandInclusionpillars.High-incomecountriesexhibitthestrongestresilientgrowthperformance(61.9),followedbyuppermiddle-incomecountries(50.0)andlowermiddle-incomecountries(45.8)inrelativeproximity.Low-incomecountriesareshowingtheleastresilientgrowth(39.0).–Thedataandanalysispresentedinthisreportaimtosupportpolicy-makersinassessingthecharacterandnatureofacountry’s

economicgrowthandcanbeusedtoidentifypotentialareastoimprove,trade-offstoresolveorsynergiestoexploit.AcomprehensivesetofdetailedCountryDashboardscollatedataonrecentgrowthaswellasalloftheframeworkdataforeachofthe107economiescovered.GrowthPathwayArchetypes–WithanaverageGDPofUSD52,475percapitain2023,highincomeeconomies’growthpathwayisgenerallycharacterisedbyhighscoresoninclusiveness,innovativeness,andresilience,butroomtoimproveonsustainability.WithanaverageGDPofUSD17,900percapita,uppermiddleincomeeconomies’growthpathwaygenerallyfeatureshigheremphasisoninclusivenessandresilience,withroomtoimproveonsustainabilityandinnovativeness.WithanaverageGDPofUSD7,633percapita,TheWorld

EconomicForum’s

Future

ofGrowthInitiativeisa

two-yearcampaignaimedatinspiringdialogueacross

stakeholdersandactionbypolicy-makerstochartnewpathwaysforeconomicgrowth

thatbalanceinnovation,inclusion,sustainabilityandresilience

goals.We

inviteleaderstojointhisefforttoco-shapenewsolutionstothechallengeshighlightedinthisreport,

workingtogetherwiththeurgencyandambitionthatthecurrent

contextdemands.TheFutureofGrowthReport20245IntroductionTherecentsustainedslowdowningrowthhasbeencompoundedbyasuccessionofcrisesanddislocations.Thesecriseshaveraisedquestionsnotjustaboutthestabilityofprevailingapproachestostimulatingeconomicgrowth,butaboutthegoalsandvaluesunderpinningit.Thequestionisnotwhethertheworldstillneedseconomicgrowth,buttheextenttowhichtheunderlyingnatureofthegrowththatisneededissynergisticwithotherimportantpriorities.To

helprespondtothiscontext,thisreportintroducesanewquantitativeframeworktohelpcomplementtraditionalgrowthmetricsanddevelopamoreholisticviewofthequalityofgrowth.Itis

nowmore

than15

years

since

the

beginningof

the

globalfinancial

crisis,butit

continuestocasta

shadow,

notleastin

thepolicy

choicesofmany

advancedeconomies.

The

COVID-19Thereiscurrentlynoconsensustowardsa

one-size-fits-allmodeloronerecipeforgoodgrowth.Instead,countrieshavedivergentinterests,prioritiesandstartingpoints,eveninthefaceofsharedglobalchallenges.TheFutureofGrowthFrameworkappliesa

multidimensionalapproachthatbalancesvariousprioritiesratherthanaggregatingthemintoa

singleindex.Itisgroundedinfourpillars:Innovativeness,Inclusiveness,SustainabilityandResilience.pandemicandthe

shock

oflockdowns,

left1behindan

aftermath

of

a

surge

in

public

debtlevelsand

reversal

ofglobal

developmentprogress.

Geopoliticaltensionsandconflicts2havefurther

reshaped

an

increasingly

multipolarinternational

order,

with

far-reaching

implicationsfortechnology,growth

anddevelopment.Overshadowingthese

developments

is

thegrowing

awareness

thatthe

world’s

risingtemperature

posesgravedangerstothelong-termprospects

forhumanity,with

theworld

currently

ontrackfora

temperature

risesignificantlyabovethetargetsset

outin

theParisThemultiplepillarsofthisframeworkprovidespaceforthosedivergencestoco-exist,ratherthanbeingassigneda

weightandsummedup.Eachpillarinthisnormativeframeworkdenotesa

positive,e.g.itispositivefora

countrytobeinnovativeorresilient,

ortotakeaccountofdistributionalandenvironmental

considerations.Yet

theframework,andthereport,

stopshortofprescribing

whichofthepillarsismoreimportant,orwhattheoptimalbalancebetweenthemmightbe.Different

countrieshavedifferentcircumstances

andthatwillleadtodifferentconclusionsonthosequestions.Thegoaloftheframeworkisnottoprescribe

a

particularapproach,

buttoprovide

a

toolwithwhichcountriescanexplore

areas

toimprove,

trade-offs

toresolve

orsynergiestodevelop.Outofthescopeoftheframeworkandthisreport

arequestionsaround

improving

themeasurement

ofGDPitself;forexample,bytakingintoaccountintangiblevaluefrom

digitalservicesorbyintegratingthevalueofcare

work.Agreement

in

2015.

Inparallel,polarizationand3mistrustis

growing

in

many

societies,withonly50%of

peopletrustinggovernments

andonly41%trustinggovernment

leaders.4Allofthishastakenplaceagainst–andhasalsofrequentlycontributedto–abackdropofincreasingglobalcontentionovereconomicpolicies,normsandstructures.Theextenttowhichtherewaspreviouslyagreementonthesemattersshouldnotbeoverstated,witholderprescriptionsforgrowth,includingtheso-called“Washingtonconsensus”,havingbrokendownbeforetheglobalfinancialcrisishaderupted.

Buttheforcesofchangehave5intensifiedoverthepasttwodecades,inparticularaspoliticsinmanyadvancedeconomieshavefractured,asthepowerandresourcesofemergingeconomieshaveincreased,andasmanyleadersacrosstheworldhavesoughttostrengthennationaleconomicpolicy-makingasacounterweighttothepoliticalandeconomiceffectsofglobalization.Thisreportcomprisesfoursections.Thefirstdiscussesthecurrentglobalgrowth

picture–

thetrade-offsbetweena

conventionalshort-termgrowthfocusanda

longer-termemphasisontheunderlyingqualityofthisgrowth–

andprovidesanoverviewoftheFutureofGrowthFrameworkandthechoicesmadeintheconstructionofeachofitsfourpillars.Theworkinthisreportstartsfromtwokeypremises.Thefirstisthateconomicgrowthisanessentialpolicyobjectiveandakeyprerequisiteforimprovinglivingstandardsandmakingprogressonalmostanyotherpolicyagenda.Thesecondisthatgrowthpolicyisaninherentlynormativeexercise,withtrade-offsandsynergies.Assuch,therewillinevitablybedisagreementsonthesenormativeconsiderations.Thesecondpartpresentskeyglobalfindingsandcurrenttrendsregardingtheinnovativeness,inclusiveness,sustainabilityandresilienceofgrowthacrosscountries.ItalsopresentsmultipleTheFutureofGrowthReport20246“growthpathwayarchetypes”thatdemonstratecommonalitiesanddifferencesofchoicesbetweenthecountriescovered.Inkeepingwiththenon-prescriptivenatureoftheframework,thereportdoesnotprovidetraditionalcountryorregionalperformancecomparisons.thedataincludedintheframework,todevelopacomprehensiveviewforeachofthe107economiescovered.Thissectionisdesignedforcountryspecificanalysisandcallstheattentionofpolicy-makers,investors,academicsandcivilsocietyinvariousnationalcontexts.Thedatacanalsobeaccessedonlineat/publications/the-future-of-growth-report.Finally,thereport’s

technicalappendixescontainthemethodologicaldetailsrelatedtotheframework.ThisisfollowedbyacomprehensivesetofdetailedCountryDashboardsthatpresentthelatestdataongrowthforeacheconomy,togetherwithallofTheFutureofGrowthReport20247TheFuture

of1Growth

Framework1.1

From

thegrowth

wehavetothegrowth

weneedEconomicgrowthcanbedefinedasanincreaseinthequantityorqualityofproductionofgoodsandservicesinacountryovertime.Itistypicallymeasuredbygrowthingrossdomesticproduct(GDP).Growthisimportantprimarilybecausemanysuchgoodsandservicescontributetopeople’squalityoflife:frombasicfoodandsheltertomorecomplexthingssuchasmedicaltechnologies,leisureactivitiesorsecurity.Whilenoteverythingimportanttosocietiescanbereducedtogoodsandservices,systematicattemptstoimprovethelivesofpeoplealmostinvariablyentailanincreaseinthequantityorqualityofatleastsomegoodsandservices,whetherproducedintheprivatesector,

thepublicsectororamixtureofthetwo.Thepositiveimpactofmoreorbettergoodsandservicescanbeparticularlysignificantinthelowest-incomecountries,wheregrowthismorelikelythaninrichereconomiestomeanthedifferencebetweenbasichumanneedsbeingmetornot.Sincethe2007globalfinancialcrisis,globaleconomicgrowthhaslostmomentum.Onaverage,globalshort-termGDPgrowthhasdeclinedfromabout2%inadvancedand5.8%inemerginganddevelopingeconomiesintheearly2000stoabout1.4%and1.7%,respectively,inthepost-COVIDperiod(Figure1).GDPgrowthisoftenusedasanindicatorofanation’s

overalleconomichealthandprosperity.However,

anycontemporaryassessmentofgrowthneedstolookbeyondquantity–itistheunderlyingnatureandqualityofgrowth,andthewayinwhichitisachieved,thatultimatelymattersmostforpositiveeconomic,societalandenvironmentaloutcomes.Countries’policychoicestodayareshapingtheirlong-termgrowthtrajectoriesandhavelastingimplicationsforindividuals,societies,internationalrelationsandtheplanet.Inrecentyears,therehavebeendebatesaroundthecontinuedneedforFIGURE1GDPgrowth(%)

by

incomegroupin

selected

periods10.0%7.5%5.0%2.5%05.8%4.2%3.4%2.6%2%1.7%1.4%1.3%1991-20002001-20082009-20202021-2022AverageannualGDPgrowthrate,%Low&middleincomeHighincomeNoteSourceWorld

Economic

Forum,

Future

of

Growth

Report

2024;based

on

constant

(2015)

USD

GDP

data

from

World

Bank,World

Development

Indicators

database.Periods

are

defined

as

intervals

between

global

recession/slowdown.

1991,2001,

2009

and2020

are

the

four

years

where

global

growth

was

lowest

over

the

past

30

years.

Income

groupsinclude

all

countries

identified

as

such

by

the

World

Bank

taxonomy.

Low

&middle

incomecombines

Low-income,

Lower-middle

income,

and

Upper-middle

income

countries.TheFutureofGrowthReport20248growthinadvancedeconomiesandhowGDPasameasurecouldbetteraccountforthevalueofunpaidworkorcountintangibleassets.Thecorequestion,however,

ishowthefutureofgrowthcanbebetteralignedwithotherimportantpriorities.Thisreportdrawsfromtherichsetofliteratureonthisquestionoverthelastdecade,includingtheWorldEconomicForum’s

longstandingworkoncompetitiveness,toproposeaholistictoolforassessingthequalityoffuturegrowth.1.2

OverviewofframeworkconstructionTheFutureofGrowthFrameworkaimstocontributetoaparadigmshiftinassessingeconomicgrowthbyadoptingamultidimensionalapproach,focusingonthequality,balanceandalignmentofgrowthwithbroaderglobalandnationalpriorities.Theframeworkthereforecapturesthecharacterofacountry’s

growthbyqualifyingperformanceacrossfourareasessentialtodrivingmorebalancedgrowth:innovation,inclusion,environmentalsustainabilityandsystemicresilience(Figure2).Economicpolicyisaninherentlynormativeexercise,withtrade-offsandsynergiesdrivingpolicychoices.Therewillinevitablybedisagreementsonthesenormativeconsiderations.Theframeworkdoesnotaimtosuggestthatinnovation,inclusion,sustainabilityandresiliencearetheonlyprioritiestobebalancedagainstgrowth,northattheyshouldbeprioritizedequallyeverywhere.Instead,itaimstoprovideatransparentandholisticwayforcountriestodeliberateonhowtoprioritizethemrelativetogrowthandrelativetoeachother.FIGURE2TheFutureofGrowthFrameworkGDPpercapita5-yearper-capitaGDPgrowth5-yearaverageGDPgrowthconstant2017PPP%change%changeInnovativenessInclusivenessSustainabilityResilienceExtenttowhichaneconomy’strajectorycanabsorbandevolveinresponsetonewtechnological,social,institutionalandorganizationaldevelopmentstoimprovethelonger-termqualityofgrowth.Extenttowhichaneconomy’strajectoryincludesallstakeholdersinthebenefitsandopportunitiesitcreates.Extenttowhichaneconomy’strajectorycankeepitsecologicalfootprintwithinfiniteenvironmentalboundaries.Extenttowhichaneconomy’strajectorycanwithstandandbouncebackfromshocks.Talent

ecosystemTalent

ecosystemTalent

ecosystemTalent

ecosystemAvailabilityoftalent

1-7(best)Educationattainment

0-4.5(best)Digitalandtechnologytalent

1-7(best)ResourcesecosystemInclusioninworkforce

1-7(best)Universalhealthcoverage

0-100(best)Lackofsocialprotection

%pop.Genderparityinlabourforce

0-100(best)Inequalityineducation

0-100(highlyunequal)Incomedistribution

%sharebottom50Socialmobility

1-7(best)Talent

forgreenandenergytransitionOld-agedependency

ratio64+to15-641-7(best)Fillvacanciesbyhiringforeignlabour1-7(best)Buyersophisticationonenvironmentandnature

1-7(best)Investmentinreskilling

1-7(best)ResourcesecosystemParticipationin