中美碳中和地区性进展跟踪（英）

TRACKINGSUBNATIONALPROGRES

STOWARDCARBONNEUTRALITYINTHEU.S.ANDCHINATheCalifornia-ChinaClimateInstituteNovember2023REPORTAUTHORSFredrichKahrl*,JessicaGordon*,FanDai*andJieHan◊*California-ChinaClimateInstitute,UniversityofCalifornia,BerkeleyUniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley◊ABOUTTHECALIFORNIA-CHINACLIMATEINSTITUTETheCalifornia-ChinaClimateInstitutewaslaunchedinSeptember2019andisaUniversityofCalifornia-wideinitiativehousedjointlyatUCBerkeley’sSchoolofLawandtheRausserCollegeofNaturalResources.ItisChairedbyJerryBrown,formerGovernoroftheStateofCalifornia,andVice-ChairedbytheformerChairoftheCaliforniaAirResourcesBoardMaryNichols.TheInstitutealsoworkscloselywithotherUniversityofCaliforniacampuses,departmentsandleaders.Throughjointresearch,traininganddialogueinandbetweenCaliforniaandChina,thisInstituteaimstoinformpolicymakers,fostercooperationandpartnershipanddriveclimatesolutionsatalllevels.ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSTheauthorswouldliketothankthefollowingreviewersforhelpfulcomments:MichaelDavidson(UniversityofCalifornia,SanDiego),HeGang(BaruchCollege,CityUniversityofNewYork,NinaKhanna(LawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratory),HongyouLu(LawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratory),andJimWilliams(UniversityofSanFrancisco).iCONTENTSAcknowledgementsiiiivAcronymandAbbreviationListExecutiveSummary1Background12CarbonNeutralityIndicatorsandMilestones23TrackingProgress:2000-2021773.13.23.33.43.53.63.73.83.9ElectricityGenerationCentralizedHeatSupply1213172125293235BuildingsIndustryTransportationForestryEnergyIntensityCO₂IntensityEnergyandCO₂IntensityTrendsVis-à-Vis2035Milestones45ConclusionsReferences3840AppendixA:MilestoneCalculations434445464649A.1ElectricityBuildingsA.2A.3A.4A.5IndustryTransportationForestryAppendixB:DataSourcesandPreparationB.1U.S.Data5151B.2ChinaDataiiAcronymandAbbreviationListBEACECCECCESCEYEBCHPCO2BureauofEconomicAnalysisCaliforniaEnergyCommissionChinaElectricityCouncilCleanEnergyStandardsChinaEnergyYearbookEditorialBoardCombinedHeatandPowerCarbonDioxideDOEEIADepartmentofEnergyEnergyInformationAgencyEnvironmentalProtectionAgencyEmissionsTradingSystemElectricVehicleEPAETSEVFHAFIAFederalHighwayAdministrationFoodInventoryandAnalysisGrossDomesticProductGDPGSPGWGrossStateProductGigawatthaHectareICCTIEAInternationalCouncilforCleanTransportationInternationalEnergyAgencyInflationReductionActIRALDVLPGMIITMOHURDMOUNBSNEANEVNDRCLight-dutyVehicleLiquifiedPetroleumGasMinistryofIndustryandInformationTechnologyMinistryofHousingandUrbanRuralDevelopmentMemorandumofUnderstandingNationalBureauofStatisticsNationalEnergyAdministrationNewEnergyVehicleNationalDevelopmentandReformCommissioniiiAcronymandAbbreviationList(cont’d)NRELPJNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryPetajoulesPHEVRFSPlug-inHybridElectricVehicleRenewableFuelStandardRenewablePortfolioStandardStateEnergyDataSystemsStateForestAdministrationofChinaTonsCoalEquivalentRPSSEPSSFAtceU.S.UnitedStatesUSDAUSFSZEVUnitedStatesDepartmentofAgricultureUnitedStatesForestServiceZeroEmissionsVehiclem3/ha-yCubicMetersperHectareperYearivEXECUTIVESUMMARYTheUnitedStates(U.S.)andChinahavesetambitioustargetsforcarbonneutrality–reducingcarbondioxide(CO₂)emissionstonetzerolevelsby2050and2060,respectively.Implementationofpoliciestomeetthesetargetswilltakeplaceatasubnationallevel,withinU.S.statesandChineseprovinces.Howcangovernmentsandnon-governmentalorganizationstracksubnationalprogresstowardcarbonneutrality?Thisreportdevelopsindicatorsand2035milestonesforeachindicatortotrackprogressbyU.S.statesandChineseprovincestowardmid-centurycarbonneutralitygoals.Itbuildsona2021report,GettingtoNetZero,whichdevelopedaframeworkforsupportingcoordinationoncarbonneutralitybetweentheU.S.andChina,includingtechnologypathways,commonmilestones,andpriorityareasfordialogue,researchanddevelopment,andinternationalleadership.Theindicatorsinthisreport(Table1,pg.vi)aimtobalancesimplicityandcompleteness,withpubliclyavailabledatathatcanberegularlyupdatedovertime.Theyfocusontwocoretransitions:(1)thetransitionfromfossilfuel-dominanttonon-fossilfuelenergysystems,and(2)thetransitiontomorecarbon-intensivelanduse.Table1includestwokindsofindicators:flow(adoption)andstock(fleet)indicators.Flowindicatorstracktheflowofnewinfrastructureandequipmentandmaychangerelativelyquickly.Stockindicatorstrackchangesintotalenergymixandlanduseandwilltendtochangerelativelyslowly.Intandem,flowandstockindicatorscanprovideausefullensontheimpactsofpolicyandthepaceofnearer-termandlong-termchange.Formostflowindicators,standardized,publiclyavailabledataarenotyetavailableatasubnationallevel.Nationalgovernmentscanplayanimportantroleinaddressingthisdatagap.The2035milestonesinTable1arenationalmilestones,consistentwitheithercurrentnationalpolicyorstudiesoflonger-termcarbonneutralitypathways.1Indicatorvaluesforeachstateandprovincewilllikelychangeatdifferentrates,butchangesshouldbedirectionallyconsistentwiththe2035milestones,andovertimethereshouldbegreaterconvergenceinindicatorvaluesamongstatesandprovinces.Akeygoaloftrackingsubnationalprogressistoidentifytheregionsandsectorsthatmayneedmoretargetedsupportfromnationalgovernments,inordertoinformandadaptnationalpolicy.TheU.S.andChinahaveverydifferenteconomies,geographies,andenergysystems.Sowhydevelopacommonsetofindicatorsforbothcountries?Bydevelopingcommonindicators,wecanidentifysectorsandregionswhereeachcountryismakingfasterorslowerprogress,asthebasisfordialogueandcoordinationbetweennationalandsubnationalgovernments.Acommonsetofindicatorsalsocanhelptobuildconfidencethatstatesorprovincesintheothercountryaremakingprogressinenergyandlandusetransitions.Overthepasttwodecades,theU.S.andChinahavebothmadesignificantprogressintheinitialstagesofatransitiontonon-fossilfuelenergysystems,thoughthusfarthemostvisiblechangeshavebeenintheelectricitysector.Inbothcountries,non-fossilfuelgeneration–renewables,ꢀOfthesemilestonesꢁonly“shareofnonꢂfossilfuelelectricitygenerationintotalgeneration”intheUꢃSꢃisexplicitlytiedtoaspecificnationalpolicygoalꢃTheremainingmilestonevaluesareconsistentwiththeresultsoflongerꢂtermdecarbonizationstudiesꢃSeeAppendixAforanoverviewofmilestonecalculationsꢃvTable1|Indicators,RecentIndicatorValues,and2035MilestonesꢀꢁꢀꢁVALUEꢀꢁꢂꢃU.S.SECTORINDICATORU.S.CHINAENERGYSUPPLYShareofnewnon-fossilfuelcapacityintotalnewgenerationcapacity(3-yearmovingaverage)79%67%>90%>95%N/A(2019-2021)(2018-2020)ElectricityGenerationShareofnon-fossilfuelelectricitygenerationintotalgeneration40%N/A32%2%CentralizedHeatShareofnon-fossilfuelenergyintotalcentral-izedheatsupplySupplyENERGYCONSUMPTIONShareofheatpumpsalesintotalwaterheaterandfurnacesalesN/A51%22%N/A61%32%80%70%45%80%60%20%BuildingsIndustryShareofnon-fossilfuelenergyinresidentialandcommercialfinalenergyconsumptionShareofnon-fossilfuelenergyinindustrialfinalenergyconsumptionShareofzero-emissionsvehicle(ZEV)salesinlight-dutyorpassengervehiclesales8%(2022)22%(2022)ShareofZEVsalesinheavy-dutyorfreighttrucksales<1%(2022)7%(2022)TransportationShareofnon-fossilfuelenergyintransportationfinalenergyconsumption5%7%LANDUSEAnnualincreaseinforestareaasashareofto-tallandarea(percentagepointsperyear,%/yr)(2007-2017)(2010-2020)0.1%/yr0.3%/yr0.1%/yrForestAreaAnnualincreaseinforestvolumeperforestarea(cubicmetersperhectareperyear,m/ha-yr)1.1m3/ha-yr1.7m3/ha-yr1.0m3/ha-yr3(2010-2020s)(2010-2020)ECONOMY-WIDE43%(relativeto2020)Reductioninenergyconsumptionperunitrealgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)33%36%EnergyIntensity(2000-2020)(2000-2020)70%(relativeto2020)Reductioninenergy-relatedCOemissionsperunitrealGDP44%38%CO2Intensity2(2000-2020)(2000-2019)FlowindicatorStockindicatorSourcesandnotes:SeeAppendixAforadetaileddescriptionofhowmilestonevalueswerecalculated.Sourcesformosthistoricalvaluescanbefoundincorrespondingsectionsofthereport.ZEVsalessharesaresharesofelectricvehiclesalesfromtheInternationalEnergyAdministration(IEA)(2023).Thesedataincludeplug-inhybridelectricvehicles(PHEVs),whicharenotzeroemitting,nototherzeroemittingvehicles,suchasfuelcellvehicles.TheU.S.doesnothaveasignificantcentralizedheatsupply,andthuswedonotreportthisindicatorfortheU.S.Severalflowindicatorvaluesare“N/A”becausedataarenotpubliclyavailable.Wereporttheforestrymetricsintotal,ratherthanperyear,laterinthereport;useoftheperyearvalueshereenablescomparisonwithhistoricalvaluesvilargehydropower,andnuclear–nowaccountsforabout70%to80%ofnewgenerationcapacity.Between2010and2020,theshareofelectricitygeneratedfromnon-fossilfuelenergyresourcesrosefrom30%to40%intheU.S.andfrom19%to32%inChina.Regionally,thelargestincreasesintheshareofnon-fossilgenerationbetween2000and2020wereinareaswithhigherqualitywindresources:themidwesternU.S.andnorthernChina.Morerecently,however,largedeclinesinthecostofsolargenerationhaveledtogreaterregionalconvergenceintheshareofnewnon-fossilgenerationcapacityinChina,atrendthatislikelyemergingintheU.S.aswell.Theenergyconsumingsectors–buildings,industry,andtransportation–presentamorenuancedstory.InChina,theshareofnon-fossilfuelenergyuseinbuildingsandindustrygrewrapidlyoverthelastdecade,drivenbyacombinationofenvironmentalpolicyandtechnologicalchange.IntheU.S.,non-fossilenergysharesinbuildingsandindustrywererelativelyflat;likelyaconsequenceoflownaturalgaspricesandlimitedfederalandstatepoliciestoencouragefuelswitching.Neithercountryhasmadesignificantprogressinreducingtheshareoffossilfuelconsumptionintransportation,despitemorethanadecadeofnationalbiofuelpolicies,morestringentnationalvehicleemissionsstandards,andstateandprovincialeffortstosupportalternativetransportationfuels.Thegeographyofchangesinstateandprovincialfossilfuelconsumption,energyintensity,andCO₂intensityreflectsthedifferentsocial,technology,andresourcechallengesthattheU.S.andChinafaceintransitioningtheirenergysystemstonon-fossilfuelenergysources.Inthebuildingssector,forinstance,northernurbanareasinChinahaveextensivedistrictheatingnetworks,whereassouthernurbanareasandmostruralareaslackcentralizedheatsupply.China’schallengesforincreasingtheshareofnon-fossilenergyuseinbuildingswillbeto(1)developnon-fossilheatingsolutionsforruralandsouthernurbanareasand(2)decidewhethertodevelopnon-fossilenergysourcesfordistrictheatingortoelectrifybuildingheatinginnorthernurbanareas.IntheU.S.,bycontrast,thereisverylittledistrictheating,andmostfossilfuelheatinginurbanandruralareasissuppliedbynaturalgasandoilproducts.Thelargestchallengeforincreasingtheshareofnon-fossilenergyuseinU.S.buildingswillbetodevelopreliableandlow-costwaystoelectrifyheatingincoldernorthernregions.Sustainedprogressoverthenext15yearswillbecriticalforputtingtheU.S.andChinaonatrajectorytomeettheirmid-centurycarbonneutralitygoals.Inthetransportationsector,forinstance,willemissionsstandards,governmentprograms,andincentivesbeenoughtodriverapidadoptionofelectricvehicles(EVs)andgrowthintheshareofnon-fossilfuelenergyintransportation?Willthegrowthofnon-fossilfuelgenerationbeenoughtoensurethattransportationelectrificationactuallyleadstosignificantreductionsinCO₂emissions?Theindicatorsinthisreportprovideacomprehensive,yetstilltractable,meansofgaugingsubnationalprogressoverthenextdecade.ThevalueoftrackingprogresstowardcarbonneutralityintheU.S.andChinatogether,ratherthandoingsoseparately,willincreaseovertimeasbothcountriesfaceandovercomearangeofregionalchallenges:landconstraintsonrenewableenergydevelopment;renewableintegrationchallengesinregionalelectricgrids;technology,political,andeconomicchallengesinindustry;buildingelectrificationincolderareasandelectrificationofheavierindustries;adoptionofnon-fossilfueledtransportationmodesinlogisticalhubs;anddifficultiesinreconcilingeconomicdevelopmentandlandconservation.BymonitoringtheU.S.andChinaintandem,cooperationbetweenthetwocanfocusonregionsthatfacecomparablechallenges–forinstance,landconstraintsinthenortheastU.S.andChina’scoastalprovincesmaymeanthatbothtakeamoredistributedapproachtorenewableenergydevelopment.Regionallytargetedbilateralcooperationcanhelptopromoteconvergenceinindicatorsamongstatesandprovincesovertime.viiCHAPTERONEBACKGROUNDTheU.S.andChinabothhavesetambitiousnationalgoalsforachievingcarbonneutralitybyaroundmid-century.Changesinenergysystemsandlandusetomeetthosegoalswilloccuratastateorprovinciallevel,whichmeansitwillbeimportanttotrackstateandprovincialprogresstowardtheselonger-termgoalsthroughnearer-termindicatorsandmilestones.ThisreportdevelopsindicatorsandmilestonesfortrackingU.S.states’andChineseprovinces’progresstowardnationalmid-centuryclimateneutralitygoals.Itbuildsonapreviousreport,GettingtoNetZero:U.S.-ChinaFrameworkandMilestonesforCarbonNeutrality,2whichfocusedonnational-levelU.S.-Chinacoordinationandmilestones.Incontrast,thisreportdevelopsindicatorsandmilestonesfortrackingprogresstowardcarbonneutralityatasubnationallevel.Thisreportisorganizedintofivemainsections:1.CarbonNeutralityIndicatorsandMilestonesprovidesanoverviewoftheindicatorsand2035milestonesdevelopedforthisreport.2.TrackingProgress:2000-2021illustrates,foreachindicator,howU.S.statesandChineseprovinceshaveprogressedoverthelasttwodecades.3.Conclusionsconfirmstheimportanceofindicators,highlightskeytakeawaysfromtheanalysisofhistoricaltrends,andoutlineschallengesgoingforward.4.AppendixA:MilestoneCalculationsexplainshow2035milestoneswerecalculatedforeachindicator.5.AppendixB:DataSourcesandPreparationdescribesdatasourcesanddatapreparationmethodsforindicatorvalues.Althoughmostoftheindicatorsinthisreportcanbetrackedusingpubliclyavailabledata,thereareseveraldatagapsandissuesforsubnationalindicatorsinboththeU.S.andChina.Throughoutthereport,weidentifywherethesegapsandissuesareandhownationalgovernmentscanplayaroleinresolvingthem.Theindicatorsdevelopedforthisreportwillcontinuetobeupdatedregularly,asdataavailabilityallows.ꢀDaietalꢁ(ꢀꢂꢀꢃ)ꢁ1CHAPTERTWOCARBONNEUTRALITYINDICATORSANDMILESTONESCarbonneutralityindicatorsaremeasurestotrackprogressagainstcarbonneutralitygoals.Indicatorsshouldbesuccinctandimpactful:theyshouldtrackimportantchangesinenergysystemsandlandusethatareexpectedtobenecessarytomeetlonger-termgoals.Inpractice,thismeansfocusingonarelativelysmallsetofindicatorsthatcapturethemostcriticalchangesintheflowandstockofenergyinfrastructureandend-useequipment(seeBox)andinlanduse.Atthesametime,atleastsomeindicatorsshouldbepolicyrelevant,meaningthattheycanbedirectlyshapedbypolicyandregulation.FlowandStockIndicatorsFlowindicatorscapturemorerapidchangesintheadoptionandretirementofnewenergyinfrastructureandequipmentandmarginalchangesinlanduse.Stockindicatorscaptureslowerchangesinthetotalstockofenergyinfrastructureandequipment.Thefigurebelowillustratesthedistinctionbetweenflowandstockindicatorsusingavehicleexample.Everyyear,somenewvehiclesareaddedtoandretiredfromthetotalstockofvehicles.Flowindicatorstrackchangesinvehicleadditions(sales)andretirementsorintheattributesandperformanceofthesevehicles.Stockindicatorstrackchangesinthetotalstockofvehiclesorintheattributesorperformanceoftheentirefleetofvehiclesontheroad.Changesinflowvariablescanoccurrelativelyquickly.Forinstance,inCaliforniasalesoflight-dutyZEVsincreasedfrom4%to18%oftotallight-dutyvehiclesalesfrom2017to2022.variablestendtooccurmoreslowly.DespiteincreasesinZEVsales,throughtheendof2020California’stransportationsectorwasstill98%reliantonpetroleumproducts.Changesintotaltransportationsectorenergyusehappenmoreslowlybecausesalesofnewcars(inCalifornia,about2ꢀmillionperyear)tendtobesmallrelativetothestockofvehicles(inCalifornia,about14millionregisteredin2020).AHowever,changesinstockBCꢁDataarefromtheCaliforniaEnergyCommission(CEC),/data-reports/energy-almanac/zero-emission-vehicle-and-infrastructure-statistics/new-zev-salesꢂꢃDataarefromtheU.S.EnergyInformationAdministration’s(EIA’s)StateEnergyDataSystem(SEDS).VehiclesalesdataarefromtheCEClinkabove;totalregisteredvehiclesdataarefromtheU.S.FederalHighwayAdministration’s(FHA’s)HighwayStatisticsSeries,/policyinformation/statistics/2020/mv1.cfm2Bydefinition,achievingcarbonneutralitymeansthatacountryreducesitsnetCO₂emissions—annualCO₂emissionsminusanycarbonthatisterrestriallyorgeologicallysequestered—tozero.3BecausefossilfuelcombustionisthemainsourceofCO₂emissionsintheU.S.andChina,reducingtheshareoffossilfuelsinthetotalsupplyofenergywillbethecornerstoneofeffortstoachievenetzeroCO₂emissionsinbothcountries.Almostallnon-fossilfuelenergyresources—biomass,geothermal,hydropower,nuclearfission,solar,waves,andwind—arecurrentlyusedtogenerateelectricity.4Thisimpliesthat,atleastinthenearterm,thetwomostimportantstrategiesforreducingCO₂emissionswillbetoincreasetheamountofelectricitygeneratedfromnon-emittingsourcesofenergyandtoelectrifysourcesofenergydemand.Thesetwostrategiescorrespondtotwokindsofstockindicators:(1)theshareofnon-fossilfuelenergyinelectricitygeneration,and(2)theshareofnon-fossilfuelenergy,includingelectricity,consumptioninthebuildings,industry,andtransportationsectors.5ForChina,wealsoincludeanon-fossilshareindicatorforheatsupplythatcapturesthecountry’slargedistrictheatingnetwork.Inadditiontothesestockindicators,weproposefournearer-termflowindicatorsthatmoreaccuratelygaugechangesinthesalesandadoptionofnewequipmentandinfrastructure.Theseincludetheshareofnon-fossilfuelgeneratingcapacityintotalnewgeneratingcapacity,theshareofheatpumpsalesintotalwaterheaterandfurnacesales,theshareofZEVsalesinlight-dutyvehiclesales,andtheshareofZEVsalesinheavy-dutyvehiclesales.Asdescribedinthenextsection,thelastthreeoftheseindicatorshavedataavailabilityissuesthatcanhopefullybeaddressedovertime.Fouradditionalindicatorsareusefulfortrackingchangesinlanduseandeconomyovertime.Theseincludeincreasesintheshareofforestareaintotallandareaandincreasesinforestvolumeperforestarea,whichareareproxiesforchangesintheamountofcarbonstoredinforests,andreductionsinenergyintensityandreductionsinCO₂intensity,whichtrackchangesinenergyconsumptionandCO₂emissionsperunitofgrossstateorprovincialproduct.Interimmilestonescanbecreatedforeachoftheseindicators.Aninterimmilestonereflectseitherapolicygoaloraninterpolatedvaluebetweentheindicator’spresentvalueandafuture(2050orꢀꢁ6ꢁ)valuethatwouldbeconsistentwithachievingcarbonneutralitygoals.Thisreportuses20ꢂ5asaninterimmilestoneyear,consistentwithpolicymakingtargetsinboththeU.S.andChina.Itusesnationalmilestones,basedongovernmentpolicytargets,independentstudies,andinterpolatedvalues(seeAppendixA).Statesandprovinceswilldifferintheextenttowhichtheymeetthesemilestonesduetoresourceendowmentsandpolicy,butnationalmilestonesneverthelessprovideausefulgaugeofsubnationalprogresstowardinterimandlonger-termpolicygoals.Table2showsbaseyearvaluesand20ꢂ5milestonesvaluesforeachindicatorexaminedinthisreport.Forenergyconsumingsectors,theenergyaccountingframeworkforourindicatorstreatsenergycarriers,suchaselectricityandsteam,asnon-fossilenergyresources.Therefore,wehaveseparateindicatorsfortheprimaryenergysupplyforthesecarriers:electricitygenerationand,forChina,heatsupply.ꢃThismeansthatitisimportanttotrackenergysupplyandconsumptionindicatorsintandem.Transportationelectrificationwithafossilfuelintensiveelectricitysupply,forinstance,willnotnecessarilyleadtoreductionsinCO₂emissions.ꢄNetCO₂emissionsinanygivenyeardonotneedtobezeroforacountrytobecarbonneutral;netemissionsshouldbezerooversometimehorizon–adecadeꢅforinstanceꢆꢇꢈTheexceptioninthislistisbiomassꢅwhichisoftenblendedintogasolineanddieseltocreatebiofuelsꢆHigherconsumptionofnonꢉfossilfuelprimaryenergyresourcesꢅsuchasbiomassꢅwillalsoincreasetheshareofnonꢉfossilfuelenergyinfinalenergyconsumptioninthebuildingsꢅindustryꢅandtransportationsectorsꢅbutintheneartermmostoftheincreasewilllikelycomefromelectrificationꢆ6WefollowreportingconventionsinaccountingforconversionlossesinelectricitygenerationandheatsupplyindicatorsꢆForelectricitygenerationꢅsharesareoftotalgenerationanddonotincludeenergyconversionlossesꢆForheatsupplyꢅsharesareofprimaryenergysupplyꢆ3Tableꢀ|Indicators,RecentIndicatorValues,andꢀꢁꢂꢃMilestones2020VALUE2035MILESTONESSECTORINDICATORU.S.CHINAU.S.CHINAENERGYSUPPLYShareofnewnon-fossilfuelcapacityintotalnewgenerationcapacity(3-yearmovingaverage)79%(2019-2021)67%(2018-2020)>90%>90%ElectricityGenerationShareofnon-fossilfuelelectricitygenerationintotalgeneration40%N/A32%2%>95%N/A>55%10%CentralizedHeatShareofnon-fossilfuelenergyintotalcentralizedheatsupplySupplyENERGYCONSUMPTIONShareofheatpumpsalesintotalwaterheaterandfurnacesalesN/AN/A61%80%70%80%75%BuildingsIndustryShareofnon-fossilfuelenergyinresidentialandcommercialfinalenergyconsumption51%Shareofnon-fossilfuelenergyinindustrialfinalenergyconsumption22%32%45%45%ShareofZEVsalesinlight-dutyorpassengervehiclesales8%22%80%60%80%60%(2022)(2022)ShareofZEVsalesinheavy-dutyorfreighttrucksales<1%(2022)7%(2022)TransportationShareofnon-fossilfuelenergyintransportationfinalenergyconsumption5%7%20%20%LANDUSEAnnualincreaseinforestareaasashareoftotallandarea(percentagepointsperyear,%/yr)0.1%/yr(2007-2017)0.3%/yr(2010-2020)0.1%/yr0.2%/yrForestAreaAnnualincreaseinforestvolumeperforestarea(cubicmetersper1.1m3/ha-yr1.7m3/ha-yr1.0m3/ha-yr1.4m3/ha-yr(2010s-2020s)(2010-2020)hectareperyear,m/ha-yr)3ECONOMY-WIDE43%(relativeto2020)43%(relativeto2020)ReductioninenergyconsumptionperunitrealGDP33%36%EnergyIntensityCO₂Intensity(2000-2020)(2000-2020)70%(relativeto2020)60%(relativeto2020)Reductioninenergy-relatedCO₂emissionsperunitrealGDP44%38%(2000-2020)(2000-2019)FlowindicatorStockindicatorSourcesandnotes:SeeAppendixAforadetaileddescriptionofhowmilestonevalueswerecalculated.Sourcesformosthistoricalvaluescanbefoundincorrespondingsectionsofthereport.ZEVsalessharesaresharesofelectricvehiclesales,fromIEA(2023).Thesedataincludeplug-inhybridelectricvehicles(PHEVs),whicharenotzeroemitting,nototherzeroemittingvehicles,suchasfuelcellvehicles.TheU.S.doesnothaveasignificantcentralizedheatsupply,andthuswedonotreportthisindicatorfortheU.S.Severalflowindicatorvaluesare“N/A”becausedataarenotpubliclyavailable.Wereporttheforestrymetricsintotal,ratherthanperyear,laterinthereport;useoftheperyearvalueshereenablescomparisonwithhistoricalvalues..4Table3|KindsofPoliciesthatMayAffectDifferentIndicatorsSECTORORAREAPOLICIESINDICATORSShareofnewnon-fossilfuelcapacityintotalnewgenerationcapacityꢄ3-yearmovingaverageꢅElectricityRenewableportfoliostandards(RPS),cleanenergystandards(CES),emissionsstandards,regionalemissionscaps,capandtradeprograms,carbontax,regulatoryandmarketreformsGenerationShareofnon-fossilfuelelectricitygenerationintotalgenerationShareofnon-fossilfuelenergyintotalcentralizedheatsupplyCentralizedHeatSupplyShareofheatpumpsalesintotalwaterheaterandfurnacesalesBuildingstandardsandcodes,taxincentives,utilityprograms,consumereducationprograms,workforcetraining,carbontax,buildingcertification,netzeroenergybuildingpolicies,governmentbuildingpolicies,regulatoryandmarketreformsBuildingsShareofnon-fossilfuelenergyinresidentialandcommercialfinalenergyconsumptionIndustryprograms,productlabeling,taxincen-tives,energyefficiencystandards,emissionsstandards,regionalemissionscaps,capandtrade,carbontax,governmentprocurementShareofnon-fossilfuelenergyinindustrialfinalenergyconsumptionIndustryShareofZEVsalesinlight-dutyandheavy-dutyvehiclesalesZEVmandates,emissionsstandards,taxincen-tives,utilityprograms,charginginfrastructureinvestment,governmentprocurementTranspo