国际货币基金组织（IMF）：氢能-北非的海市蜃楼

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DIGITALGLOBEVIAGETTYIMAGES

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TheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica

NORTHAFRICA’S

HYDROGENMIRAGE

RabahArezki

Theprospectofbillionsofdollarspouringinto

hydrogenprojectsthreatenstodistractleaders

fromdomesticcrises

T

odaytherichdeepblueoftheMediter-raneanSeaservesastheincongruousbackdropforthousandsoftragicjour-neysbyrefugeesandmigrantsheading

northtowardEurope.OnJune14,2023,arefugeeboatcapsizedoffthecoastofGreeceandlefthundredsdead.In2022,nofewerthan160,000peopleattemptedtocrossmilesofopenwater,ofteninovercrowdedormakeshiftboats,accordingtotheUNHCR,theUnitedNationsref-ugeeagency.Almost40percentofthemwerefromTunisiaorEgypt.Morethan2,300died.

Themigrantsweredesperatelyseekingsafetyandeconomicopportunity,andthousandsmorecontinuetorisktheirliveseverydayforthesamereason.TheflowofmigrantshasraisedtensionsbetweentheNorthernRimandtheSouthernRimoftheMediterranean,abodyofwaterthathasservedasthecrossroadsbetweenEasternandWesternciv-ilizationsformillennia.

Evenastensionsovermigrationrunhigh,theNorthernRimandtheSouthernRimhaverenewedtheircooperationoverenergyissues.InadditiontotraditionaloilandgasexporterssuchasAlgeriaandLibya,othernations,includingEgypt,Lebanon,Israel,andMauritania,arepoisedtogetinontheaction,thankstoseveralmajorfossilfueldiscoveries.

Amidtheglobalenergytransition,investorsareanxioustopourbillionsofdollarsintomanyofthesecountriestoturnthenewfossilfuelfindsintohydrogen.Theelementisthekeyfeedstockforfuelcells,whichusechemicalreactionstogenerateelectricitycleanly,withwaterasthemainbyprod-uct.Notwithstandingtheconsiderabletechno-logicalchallengesahead,demandforthegasinEuropeandelsewhereiswidelyexpectedtosurgeasvehicles,factories,andotherenergyusersseektoreducegreenhousegasemissions.

ForSouthernRimnations,however,thistan-talizingopportunityforeconomicdevelopment

Satellite

imageofthe

Ouarzazate

SolarPower

Stationin

Morocco.

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risksturningintojustanotherSaharamirage.That’sbecausethehypesurroundinghydrogenmaycontinuetodistracttheregions’leadersfromaddressingthetoughdomesticsocialissuesthatarebehindthemigrationcrisis.Ifthetechnologydoesbecomeviable,revenuefromhydrogenexportstoEuropecouldjustperpetuaterent-seekingbehav-iorbypoliticalandeconomicelitesattheexpenseoftheirowncitizens.

Certainly,thefalloutfromRussia’sinvasionofUkrainehelpedcementenergycooperationbetweenthetwosidesoftheMediterranean.ThewarputenergysecurityatthetopofthepolicyagendaasEuropeannationsscrambledtoreplaceRussia’snaturalgasandoil.MoreresourcesfromtheSouthernRimflowednorth,generatingforeignexchangerevenue.

PoliticalleadersfromItaly,France,andGer-

“Thehypesurroundinghydrogenmay

continuetodistracttheregion’sleadersfromaddressingthetoughdomesticsocialissuesthatarebehindthemigrationcrisis.”

manyvisitedtheircounterpartsinAlgeria,Egypt,Libya,andMauritaniatoexpandcooperationonenergyissues.Thesehigh-profilecontactsresultedinpromisesofmorefossilfuelexportsandnewinvestmentsinextractionandtransportation,includingpipelines.SuchinvestmentswillensurethatfossilfuelsfromtheSouthernRimkeepflow-ingnorthtoEurope.

Newfocusonrenewables

CriticshaveblastedEurope’sadvancedeconomiesfortheirnot-in-my-backyardpoliciesofrelyingondevelopingeconomiestodothedirtyworkofproducingfossilfuelsand

extractingmineralscriticalfortheenergytransi-tion.Inadditiontotheclimateandenvironmen-talrisks,theSouthernRimandtherestofAfricafacethedangerofbeingleftbehindonceEuroperesolvesitsenergysecurityissues.Theeconomicconcentrationaroundfossilfuelsandassociatedcapitalinvestmentsexposethesenationstotheriskofstrandedassetsorthethreatofstringentrestrictionsonfossilfueltrade.

TheEuropeanUnionhasmadegreatstridesinadvancingitsenergytransition.Investmentsinrenewableenergyhaveincreasedrapidly,buttheracetoreplaceenergyfromRussiaalsoshowedhowharditistoquicklyrampuprenewableandothercleanerenergysources.Still,theformidabledeclineinthecostofproducingrenewableenergyhasbeenakeydriverbehindtheseinvestments.

AsfortheSouthernRim,nationstherewillfacegreatermacroeconomicandfinancialchallengesintheenergytransition,partlybecauseoftherelativelyhighercostofcapital.SomeSouthern

Rimnationshavemadeprogresstowardreduc-inggreenhousegasemissions.EgyptandMoroccoarerampinguprenewableenergy.MoroccobuilttheNoor-Ouarzazatecomplex,theworld’slargestconcentratedsolarpowerplant,covering3,000hectares.Others,likeAlgeriaandMauritania,aregearinguptoinstalllargesolarandwindprojects.

Thesedayshydrogenisatthecenterofattention intheMediterraneanregion.Hydrogeniseasily themostabundantelementintheuniverse,offers acleansourceofenergy,andcancomefromavari- etyofsources.“Grayhydrogen”isproducedfrom naturalgasbutwithoutcarboncaptureandstorage.Whencarboncaptureandstorageareadded,the hydrogenislabeled“blue,”butthecostsarehigher.“Greenhydrogen”isproducedusingnuclearpower, biomass,orrenewableenergylikesolarorwind.Its costsarestillrelativelyhigh.

Enthusiasmaroundgreenhydrogenisrag-ing.ProjectscostingbillionsofdollarsareunderconsiderationinMauritania,Algeria,Egypt,andothercountries.AGermandeveloperandMaurita-niasignedamemorandumofunderstandingwithaconsortiumfora$34billionprojectwithannualcapacityof8milliontonsofgreenhydrogenandrelatedproducts.

Hydrogenprojectscouldhelpkeepenergyflow-ingfromtheSouthernRimtotheNorthernRim.Theinfrastructuretotransporthydrogenisalreadyunderdevelopment,althoughprojectssofarfocusontheintra-Europeanmarket.AlargechunkoftheprospectivehydrogeninvestmentsmayendupinEurope,withItalyandSpaingearinguptobecomebigproducers.Portugal,Spain,France,andGer-manysignedanagreementtobuildaMediterra-neanpipelinethatwouldsupply10percentoftheEU’shydrogenby2030.TheenergyministriesofItaly,Germany,andAustriasignedaletterofsup-portforthedevelopmentofahydrogen-readypipe-linebetweenNorthAfricaandEuropeinvolvingItaly’sgasgridoperator.

Suchmegainvestmentscouldhaveimport-antmacroeconomicimplications,especiallyforthesmallerandlessdiversifiedeconomiesoftheSouthernRim.Challengeswillinvolveexchangerateappreciationandcurrentaccountswingsfromdeficittosurplus.Policymakerswillalsohavetotreadcarefullybecauseofcontingentliabilitiesassociatedwithlargeprojects,suchasfailureorabandonment.

WhiletheshiftingeopoliticsacceleratedbyRussia’swarinUkraineisfurtheringenergyinte-grationacrosstheMediterranean,thenewpushforindustrialpolicyandeconomicsovereigntyinEuropeisworkingtolimitintegration.ThesearenewrisksNorthAfricancountrieswillhavetoman-

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age,andtheysuggesttheneedforgreaterattentiontoaddressingdomesticissues.

Domesticissues

BighydrogenprojectsholdoutthepromiseofgeneratingrevenuesthatcouldhelpaddresstheneedsofSouthernRimcitizens.Accesstoreliableandabundantenergyissurelyabuildingblockforindustrializingeconomies.Yet,ifhistoryisanyguide,theabundanceofenergyaloneisnotsuffi-cienttoachieveeconomicdevelopment.CountriesintheSouthernRimhavealotontheirplates,andsocialcohesionisatstake.Theauthoritiesneedtoregaintheconfidenceoftheiryouthandaddresslong-standingdomesticissues,whethersocial,economic,orregional.ThedesperationofyoungpeoplefromtheSouthernRimdrivesthemtorisktheirlivescrossingtheMediterranean,signalingthepervasivenessoftheseissues.

Thereare,ofcourse,greatdifferencesbetweenoil-exportingandoil-importingSouthernRimnations.ImportingnationssuchasMoroccoandEgypthaveoverhauledorremovedfuelsubsidiesorpricecontrols,withaccompanyingmitigationmea-suressuchascashorin-kindtransferstoeasetheimpactonpoorhouseholds.Oil-exportingcoun-triessuchasAlgeriaandLibyahavetendedtostickwithsubsidiesdespitetheirhigheconomicandenvironmentalcosts.Ineconomieswithlittlepolit-icalaccountability,thisreflectsanenduringsocialcontractunderwhichcitizensacceptsubsidiesandlooktheotherwayaspoliticalandeconomicelitescapturetherevenuesgeneratedbyfossilfuelsandnow,mostlikely,hydrogen.

AcrosstheSouthernRim,distrustofgovern-mentandperceptionsofcorruptionremainhigh.Thelackofeconomicopportunitiesstemsfromthelackofadynamicprivatesector.Unemploymentishigherforindividualswithmoreeducationthanforthosewithless.Inmanyofthesecountries,thelegacyofastate-administeredeconomywithlarge,government-ownedenterprisescrowdsoutinde-pendentbusinessesandcreatestheconditionsforaparallelinformaleconomy.

Andstate-ownedbankshavelongunder-pinnedshadowyflowsoffundsthatsupportthestate-ownedenterprisesandlimitfaircompeti-tion.Incountrieswherethefootprintofthestateislesssignificant,itisacronyprivatesectorthattypicallycapturesthewealth,distortingcompe-tition.Whetherinsystemswherestate-ownedenterprisesoracronyprivatesectordominates,millionsofyoungpeoplehavebeenleftbehind.Inbothcases,theperceptionofcorruptionandrampantinequalityaregravelyunderminingsocialcohesion.

Theprospectofhydrogenexportsmayhelp

improveexternalfundbalances.Butitmayalso

reinforcerent-seekingactivitiestothedetriment

ofotheraspectsofanation’seconomy.Toavoid

repeatingpastmistakes,thesectormustshow

utmosttransparencytolimitcorruption.

Authoritiesshouldalsotrytomaximizenotonly

therevenuestheyderivefromhydrogenproduction

butalsothebenefitsforcitizens,includinglocal-

izationpolicies.Anenergysectorthatisgearedfor

exportswillnotyieldthekindsofjobsthatwillbe

neededforyoungpeople,whorepresentthemajor-

ityofthepopulationintheSouthernRim.

Itisthusimportanttocarryoutreformsthatgo

beyondtheenergysector.Restructuringmustbe

broaderandaimedatremovingroadblockstocre-

atingdecentjobsforyoungpeople.Thatwouldhelp

addresstheirgrowingsenseofdesperation.Butcar-

ryingoutsuchchangesinthecontextofwidespread

distrustisn’teasy.

Thesequencingofreformcouldbuildtrust.Ina

nutshell,changesmuststartwiththepoliticaland

administrativeelitesandcronies“walkingthetalk”

beforeintroducingchangesthataffectthebroader

population.Specifically,itwillhelptogetridofcor-

poratesubsidiesstemmingfromimportmonopo-

liesandmoregenerallytopromotefaircompeti-

tionbylimitingtheabuseofdominantpositionsby

state-ownedenterpri