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项目经济效益和社会效益分析(参考)8.1经济效益分析8.1.1⑴国家发展改革委员会与建设部发布、中国计划出版社出版的《建设项目经济评价方法与参数》(第三版)。⑵本项目投入、产出物为含税价格,增值税按有关规定计算,其附加税费包括城市维护建设税、教育费附加费和地方教育费附加,分别按应缴增值税额的5%、3%和1%计取;企业所得税率为:2010年为22%、2011年为24%、2012及以后年为25%。⑶财务基准收益率按10%考虑。⑷项目计算期和生产负荷本项目计算期按10年考虑(含建设期2年)。根据项目产品市场情况预计,投产后的生产负荷估计如下:第3年投产,达产率为70%,第4年达产率为85%,第5年及以后达产率为100%。8.1.2产品销售收入与销售税金及附加估算⑴产品规模及产品销售价格本项目产品为XXXXXXX,达产年的产品规模及预计产品销售价格见表8-1。表8-1产品规模及销售价格序号产品名称产品规模(万支)销售价格(含税)(元/支)1XXXXXXXX2XXXXXXX⑵产品销售收入及税金达产年可实现产品销售收入XXXXX万元,年上缴产品销售税金及附加XXX万元,应缴增值税XXXXX万元。产品销售收入与销售税金及附加估算见表8-2。8.1.3总成本费用估算⑴外购原辅材料估算本项目产品的主要原材料为注塑件、五金件、电子元器件、灯管等。辅料为焊锡、助焊剂及白胶等。预计达产年合计年外购原辅材料费为XXXXX万元。见表8-3。⑵外购燃料及动力费估计预计达产年外购燃料及动力费为114.80万元,见表8-3。⑶人员工资及福利费估算本项目定员1500人,年工资福利费支出为2,532.60万元。⑷修理费本项目修理费按固定资产原值的2%估计。⑸折旧费和摊销费本项目折旧方法采用直线折旧法,设备折旧按10年计,残值率分别为5%和3%。详见表8-4。⑹技术研发费技术研发费用按销售收入的2%估计。⑺其它费用其它费用包括其它制造费用、其它管理费用和其它销售费用。其它制造费用按产品销售收入的3%估计;其它管理费用按管理技术员定额数3万元/人估计。其它销售费用按产品销售收入的4%估计。⑻财务费用本项目达产年总成本费用为XXX万元,其中:可变成本XXX万元,固定成本XXX万元;年经营成本为XXX万元。总成本费用估算见表8-3。8.1.4利润估算该项目实施后,达产年可实现总产值20,000.00万元,年利润总额为2179.52万元,年上缴税金2119.30万元,年税后利润1634.64万元(详见表8-5)。计算期内年均利润总额1875.12万元。总投资收益率ROI为75%。由上述指标可以看出,项目具有很好的投资收益。8.1.5项目盈利能力分析项目现金流量计算见表8-6。经计算,本项目有关的财务盈利指标如下:项目所得税前财务内部收益率FIRR为29.69%,财务净现值FNPV(ic=10%)为6221.33万元,静态投资回收期为4.30年(含建设期2年)。项目所得税后财务内部收益率为23.69%,财务净现值(ic=10%)为4437.93万元,静态投资回收期为4.62年(含建设期2年)。上述指标表明,本项目能获得较好的投资收益率,项目在财务上是可行的。8.1.6本项目还贷资金来源主要有可供分配利润、折旧与摊销费。按项目最大还款能力计算,本项目可在2.52年(含建设期)内可偿还全部贷款。项目还本付息情况详见表8-7。8.1.7不确定性分析以设计生产能力利用率来表示项目的盈亏平衡点BEP,即=本项目只要生产能力利用率达到设计生产能力的56.28%就能够保本经营而不发生亏损。表8-2销售收入估算表单位:万元序号项目单位/税率合计3456789101生产负荷70%85%100%100%100%100%100%100%产品销售收入151,000.0014,000.0017,000.0020,000.0020,000.0020,000.0020,000.0020,000.0020,000.001.126W以上60,400.005,600.006,800.008,000.008,000.008,000.008,000.008,000.008,000.00产量万支350.00425.00500.00500.00500.00500.00500.00500.00售价元/支16.0016.0016.0016.0016.0016.0016.0016.001.226W以下90,600.008,400.0010,200.0012,000.0012,000.0012,000.0012,000.0012,000.0012,000.00产量万支1,050.001,275.001,500.001,500.001,500.001,500.001,500.001,500.00售价元/支8.008.008.008.008.008.008.008.001.3销项税17%25,670.002,380.002,890.003,400.003,400.003,400.003,400.003,400.003,400.002销售税金及附加981.4891.00110.50130.00130.00130.00130.00130.00130.002.1城市维护建设税5%545.2750.5561.3972.2272.2272.2272.2272.2272.222.2教育费附加3%327.1630.3336.8343.3343.3343.3343.3343.3343.332.3地方教育费附加1%109.0510.1112.2814.4414.4414.4414.4414.4414.443增值税10,905.341,011.091,227.751,444.421,444.421,444.421,444.421,444.421,444.423.1销项税25,670.002,380.002,890.003,400.003,400.003,400.003,400.003,400.003,400.003.2进项税14,764.661,368.911,662.251,955.581,955.581,955.581,955.581,955.581,955.58

表8-3总成本费用估算表单位:万元序号项目单位/税率合计345678910生产负荷70%85%100%100%100%100%100%100%1外购原辅材料、包装材料费85,828.407,957.609,662.8011,368.0011,368.0011,368.0011,368.0011,368.0011,368.001.1原、辅材料85,088.507,889.009,579.5011,270.0011,270.0011,270.0011,270.0011,270.0011,270.001.2包装物739.9068.6083.3098.0098.0098.0098.0098.0098.00进项税17%14,590.831,352.791,642.681,932.561,932.561,932.561,932.561,932.561,932.562外购燃料及动力费866.7480.3697.58114.80114.80114.80114.80114.80114.80进项税小计143.1213.2716.1118.9618.9618.9618.9618.9618.962.1电761.0470.5685.68100.80100.80100.80100.80100.80100.80进项税17%129.3812.0014.5717.1417.1417.1417.1417.1417.142.2水105.709.8011.9014.0014.0014.0014.0014.0014.00进项税13%13.741.271.551.821.821.821.821.821.823外协加工费211.4019.6023.8028.0028.0028.0028.0028.0028.00进项税17%30.722.853.464.074.074.074.074.074.074人工工资及福利费20,260.802,532.602,532.602,532.602,532.602,532.602,532.602,532.602,532.605修理费533.5366.6966.6966.6966.6966.6966.6966.6966.696折旧及摊销费1,474.40184.30184.30184.30184.30184.30184.30184.30184.307研发费用3,020.00280.00340.00400.00400.00400.00400.00400.00400.008其它费用12,250.001,190.001,400.001,610.001,610.001,610.001,610.001,610.001,610.008.1其它管理费用1,680.00210.00210.00210.00210.00210.00210.00210.00210.008.2其它制造费用4,530.00420.00510.00600.00600.00600.00600.00600.00600.008.3销售费用6,040.00560.00680.00800.00800.00800.00800.00800.00800.009财务费用177.9920.1120.7822.8522.8522.8522.8522.8522.8510总成本费用123,973.2212,331.2614,304.5516,246.0616,218.2716,218.2716,218.2716,218.2716,218.2710.1可变成本101,566.949,743.8611,560.4813,377.1013,377.1013,377.1013,377.1013,377.1013,377.1010.2固定成本22,406.282,587.402,744.072,868.962,841.172,841.172,841.172,841.172,841.1711经营成本122,759.4712,107.2514,099.6716,092.0916,092.0916,092.0916,092.0916,092.0916,092.09进项税合计14,764.661,368.911,662.251,955.581,955.581,955.581,955.581,955.581,955.58

表8-4折旧与摊销估算表单位:万元序号项目原值折旧/摊销年限345678910一固定资产1土建工程1.1折旧费1.2净值2设备1,900.002.1折旧费10184.30184.30184.30184.30184.30184.30184.30184.302.2净值1,715.701,531.401,347.101,162.80978.50794.20609.90425.603固定资产合计1,900.003.1折旧费184.30184.30184.30184.30184.30184.30184.30184.303.2净值1,715.701,531.401,347.101,162.80978.50794.20609.90425.60二无形及递延资产1无形资产1.1摊销费1.2净值-2递延资产2.1摊销费2.2净值-3无形及递延资产合计3.1摊销费3.2净值-

表8-5利润与利润分配表单位:万元序号项目合计3456789101产品销售收入151,000.0014,000.0017,000.0020,000.0020,000.0020,000.0020,000.0020,000.0020,000.002销售税金及附加981.4891.00110.50130.00130.00130.00130.00130.00130.003增值税10,905.341,011.091,227.751,444.421,444.421,444.421,444.421,444.421,444.424总成本费用123,973.2212,331.2614,304.5516,246.0616,246.0616,246.0616,246.0616,246.0616,246.065利润总额15,000.97566.651,357.202,179.522,179.522,179.522,179.522,179.522,179.526弥补前年度亏损0.007应纳所得税额15,000.97566.651,357.202,179.522,179.522,179.522,179.522,179.522,179.528所得税3,719.67124.66325.73544.88544.88544.88544.88544.88544.889税后利润11,281.30441.981,031.471,634.641,634.641,634.641,634.641,634.641,634.6410盈余公积金(10%)1,128.1344.20103.15163.46163.46163.46163.46163.46163.4611应付利润12未分配利润10,153.17397.78928.321,471.181,471.181,471.181,471.181,471.181,471.18其中:借款偿还300.0013累计未分配利润97.781,326.102,797.284,268.465,739.647,210.828,682.0010,153.1814EBIT15,178.96586.761,377.982,202.372,202.372,202.372,202.372,202.372,202.3715EBITDA16,653.36771.061,562.282,386.672,386.672,386.672,386.672,386.672,386.67

表8-6项目现金流量表单位:万元序号项目合计123456789101现金流入151,657.000.000.0014,000.0017,000.0020,000.0020,000.0020,000.0020,000.0020,000.0020,657.001.1产品销售收入151,000.0014,000.0017,000.0020,000.0020,000.0020,000.0020,000.0020,000.0020,000.001.2回收固定资产余值57.0057.001.3回收流动资金600.00600.002现金流出137,746.281,522.00978.0013,737.3415,455.4817,720.9617,666.5017,666.5017,666.5017,666.5017,666.502.1建设投资1,900.001,358.00542.000.002.2流动资金600.00164.00436.00528.0017.5654.450.002.3经营成本122,759.4712,107.2514,099.6716,092.0916,092.0916,092.0916,092.0916,092.0916,092.092.4销售税金及附加981.4891.00110.50130.00130.00130.00130.00130.00130.002.5增值税10,905.341,011.091,227.751,444.421,444.421,444.421,444.421,444.421,444.423所得税前净现金流量13,910.72-1,522.00-978.00262.661,544.522,279.042,333.502,333.502,333.502,333.502,990.504累计所得税前净现金流量-1,522.00-2,500.00-2,237.34-692.821,586.223,919.726,253.228,586.7210,920.2213,910.725所得税前净现值6,221.33-1,383.64-808.26197.341,054.941,415.111,317.201,197.451,088.59989.631,152.976累计所得税前净现值-1,383.64-2,191.90-1,994.56-939.62475.491,792.692,990.144,078.735,068.366,221.337调整所得税105.91299.67503.96503.96503.96503.96503.96503.968所得税后净现金流量10,481.38-1,522.00-978.00156.751,244.851,775.081,829.541,829.541,829.541,829.542,486.549累计所得税后净现金流量-1,522.00-2,500.00-2,343.25-1,098.40676.682,506.224,335.766,165.307,994.8410,481.3810所得税后净现值4,437.93-1,383.64-808.26117.77850.251,102.181,032.73938.84853.49775.90958.6711累计所得税后净现值-1,383.64-2,191.90-2,074.13

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