毕马威亚太区私募股权晴雨表2023：驾驭不确定性并预测经济复苏私人产权-英

Asia

Pacific

PrivateEquity

Barometer

2023PE

investment

trends

and

opportunitiesThought

leadershipIn

association

with

AVCJContent01

Private

equity

inAsiaPacific:

Down

but

definitely

not

out02

Navigating

ESG:

Moving

beyond

basics3703

Regional

opportunities:

Searching

for

thenextChina?04

Sector

spotlight:

Tech

andhealthcare10151805

Exits:

Nowhere

to

go

but

up–

but

when?About

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All

rights

reserved.Asia

Pacific

PrivateEquity

Barometer2023201

Private

equity

in

AsiaPacific:

Down

but

definitelynot

out02

NavigatingESG:Movingbeyondbasics03

Regionalopportunities:SearchingforthenextChina?0104

Sectorspotlight:Techandhealthcare05

Exits:

Nowheretogo

butup

–butwhen?Private

equityin

Asia

Pacific:Down

butAbout

KPMGdefinitely

not

out©2023

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reserved.Asia

Pacific

PrivateEquity

Barometer20233Section

01Private

equity

in

Asia

Pacific:Down

but

definitely

not

out01

Private

equity

in

AsiaPacific:

Down

but

definitelynot

out02

NavigatingESG:Movingbeyondbasics03

Regionalopportunities:SearchingforthenextChina?The

years2020-21

were

without

a

doubt

groundbreakingfor

theprivateequity

(PE)

industry

in

theAsia-Pacific(ASPAC)

region.Buoyed

by

vastliquidity

pools

andenticingly

low

interest

rates

–

not

to

mentiondigitalacceleration

and

pandemic-induced

opportunities

–theregion

experienced

a

surgein

PE

investments.Figure

1:04

Sectorspotlight:TechandhealthcareAsia-Pacific

private

equity

investment

trends250,000200,000150,000100,00050,00005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000005

Exits:

Nowheretogo

butup

–butwhen?However,asdataoverthelast12-18

monthsshows,thisactivityhaslostmuchofitsmomentum.Totalinvestmentvalueacrosstheregionplungedby36%

toUS$84.7bn

inthefirsthalfof2023.

That’scomparedto

US$132.3bnin1H2022,whichitselfwasamajordropofffromthefive-year

highofUS$243.9bnrecordedin2H2021.About

KPMGClear

andpresent

challengesSeveralfactorshavecontributedto

thisdowntrend.Forstarters,thefrenziedactivityin2020-21

ledto

anoverheatedmarket.Thewideningdeltabetweenbuyerandsellervaluationexpectationshasseenmanyprivateequityinvestorsbecomemorecautiousaboutoverpayingforassets,whilevendorsarereluctanttosellatdiscountsto

thepricesthatwereonofferjust24monthsago.H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1202320182019202020212022DealvalueUS$mDealvolumeSource:AVCJ©2023

Copyright

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All

rights

reserved.Asia

Pacific

PrivateEquity

Barometer20234Equally,rising

interest

ratesand

inflation

in

WesternandAsian

economies

havedried

up

liquidity

and

increasedborrowing

costs.

This

ismaking

it

harder

for

privateequity

sponsors

to

securefinancing

for

newdeals.Figure

2:Asia-Pacific

total

capital

under

management

(US$m)01

Private

equity

in

AsiaPacific:

Down

but

definitelynot

out2,0001,5001,000500Atthegloballevel,uncertaintiesrangingfromsupplychainchallengesto

geopoliticalriftsbetweenkeymarketshaveaddedto

currentcomplexities.Andregionally,aslowingChineseeconomyalongsideregulatorychangesandstrictergovernmentcontrolsinChinahavemadeinvestmentactivityandoutcomeslesspredictable.02

NavigatingESG:Movingbeyondbasics03

Regionalopportunities:SearchingforthenextChina?04

Sectorspotlight:TechandhealthcareSlowingdealactivityhasmeantprivateequityfundshavebeenunableto

generateexitsandmake05

Exits:

Nowheretogo

butup

–butwhen?distributionsto

investorsthatcanthenberecycledintonewfundvintages.Inaddition,investorshavealsohadto

parebacknewfundcommitmentsbecauseofthedenominatoreffect,whichhasseeninstitutionsover-allocatedto

privateequityasvaluationsofotherassetclassesintheirportfolioshaveoscillated.0About

KPMGH1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1201820192020202120222023Confidence

inASPAC

remainsstrongSource:AVCJYet,

it’svitalto

understandthatevenwhilefacingsuchadauntinglistofchallenges,overallPE

investmentremainsconfidentlybuoyant,echoingsomeofitspre-pandemicvibrancy.Likewise,thecurrenttemperinginthepaceofactivity,whilenoteworthy,isn’tindicativeofalackofopportunitiesorinterestbutratheramarketrecalibration.News

of

the

death

of

private

equity

has

been

greatly

exaggerated.

While

wehave

seen

private

equity

investment

dip

to

some

of

its

lowest

levels

sincethe

onset

of

the

pandemic,

the

market

remains

robust

and

we’re

alreadyseeing

a

strong

deal

pipeline

start

to

take

shape

across

ASPAC.

Whileuncertainties

remain,

there

are

early

indicators

of

a

resurgence

in

2024.ThematuringmarketsofASPAC,theirvastgrowthhorizonsandexpandingmiddleclassesareindeedpromising.Theebbinactivityisfarfromaretreat–andrisingcapitalundermanagementfiguressubstantiateconfidenceintheprivateequityinvestmentclassforitsabilityto

navigatemarketcomplexitiesanddeliveroutsizedreturns.AndrewThompsonHeadofPrivateEquity,KPMG

AsiaPacific©2023

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reserved.Asia

Pacific

PrivateEquity

Barometer20235Fundraisingtotalsoverthepastyearcontributeto

thisoptimism.Whilethenumberoffundsdeclined,fundvaluesremainonparwithpre-pandemicraises.Managerstargetingtheregionalsostillhavelongcapitalrunways,withsomeestimatesshowingthatASPACfundsstillhaveapproximatelyUS$680bn

ofuninvesteddry

powderavailableto

deploy.Figure

3:Asia-Pacific

private

equity

fundraising01

Private

equity

in

AsiaPacific:

Down

but

definitelynot

out100,00080,00060,00040,00020,0000500400300200100002

NavigatingESG:MovingbeyondbasicsOutlook202403

Regionalopportunities:SearchingforthenextChina?So

whatawaitsinvestorsas2024approaches?04

Sectorspotlight:TechandhealthcareTheupcomingyearpromisesto

beablendofprudenceandambition–andwhilethesheervolumeofdealsmightharkenbackto

quietertimes,thenumberofopportunitiesacrossASPAConlyseemsto

beexpanding.05

Exits:

Nowheretogo

butup

–butwhen?For

instance,

a

preference

for

ventures

that

not

onlypromiseprofitability

but

also

prove

sustainable

will

be

atheme

asenvironmental,

social

and

governance

(ESG)considerations

become

primary

investment

criteria,emphasizing

responsible

growth.

While

China

will

remainpivotal,

investors

are

eyeing

alternativemarkets

forfresher

opportunities.

The

tech

revolution,

spearheadedby

artificial

intelligence

(AI),

isreshaping

various

sectorswithASPAC’s

unique

blend

of

established

and

emergingtechhubs

offering

prime

investment

opportunities.Concurrently,

thehealthcare

landscape

isgeneratingmyriad

opportunities,

from

eldercarein

developednations

to

digital

health

solutionsinemerging

markets.About

KPMGH1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1202320182019202020212022FundraisingvalueUS$mNumberoffundsSource:AVCJThe

exit

market,

however,

stands

to

be

a

challenge

in

theyear

ahead.

In

particular,record-low

exit

activity

and

thesubsequent

delays

in

returning

capital

toLPs

couldimpact

fundraising.

This

alongside

a

reluctancefrominvestors,

particularly

those

from

North

America,

tocommit

to

any

fundwith

a

China

strategy

will

dampencapital

raises.Overall,marketconditionsarelikelyto

remainchallengingfortheforeseeablefuture,butwell-capitalizedfundmanagerswillbeideallypositionedto

seeoutthisperiodofdislocation,investingoodassetsatattractivevaluationsandemergefromthecurrentdownturnstrongerthanever.©2023

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reserved.Asia

Pacific

PrivateEquity

Barometer2023601

Privateequity

inAsiaPacific:

Down

butdefinitelynotout02

NavigatingESG:Moving

beyond

basics03

Regionalopportunities:SearchingforthenextChina?0204

Sectorspotlight:Techandhealthcare05

Exits:

Nowheretogo

butup

–butwhen?Navigating

ESG:Moving

beyondbasicsAbout

KPMG©2023

Copyright

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or

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of

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All

rights

reserved.Asia

Pacific

PrivateEquity

Barometer20237Section

02Navigating

ESG:Moving

beyond

basics01

Privateequity

inAsiaPacific:

Down

butdefinitelynotout02

NavigatingESG:Moving

beyond

basics03

Regionalopportunities:SearchingforthenextChina?ESG,

once

a

niche

concern,

has

surged

to

the

forefrontof

investment

strategiesin

recentyears

–

and

privateequity

firms

in

ASPAC

arediscovering

that

sideliningESG

is

no

longer

anoption.

Rather,ESG

should

becentral

to

investment

strategiesand

infusedwithinportfolio

company

operations.

ESG

isincreasingly

a“watermark”acrossall

investmentstrategies.morecommoncapitalisbeingdeployedto

takeadvantageofthistrend.04

Sectorspotlight:TechandhealthcareBridgingthegap05

Exits:

Nowheretogo

butup

–butwhen?While

adopting

ESG

isbecoming

the

norm,implementing

it

is

a

multifacetedchallenge

–

andsometimesthegap

between

ESG

intentand

actionablestrategy

can

often

resemble

a

chasm.

Smaller

fundsmay

lack

theresourcesand

expertise

tocollect

ESGdata

and

devise

concrete

improvementplans.

Portfoliocompany

management

may

be

resistant

tooperationalchanges.

And

inemerging

markets,

likeVietnam

andthePhilippines,

ESG

consciousness

among

localbusinessesisstill

inits

infancy.About

KPMGNext

stepsThisrepresentsamajorshiftinmindset.Historically,mostPEfirmsintheregionhaveviewedESGasaseparatecomplianceinitiative,ratherthananintegralpart

ofvaluecreation.ButwithlargeLPs

nowassessingGPsonESGperformanceandasfundsintegrateESGdataintoearlystageinvestmentdecisions,fundmanagers

acrossASPACarerethinkinghowESGcanenhancereturns.To

overcomethesehurdles,PE

firmsinASPACareresortingto

ablendoftraditionalwisdomandmoderninnovation.Somearestrengtheningin-house

ESGcapabilitieswithESGdirector-levelhires.Thesespecialistsdon’tmerelyactasgatekeepersduringtheinvestmentphasebutcontinueto

shapetheESGtrajectorypost-acquisition.Attheheartofthischange,leadingASPACfundshavestartedscreeningpotentialinvestmentsforESGrisksandopportunities.As

such,duediligencehasshiftedfromamereexerciseinnumbersandprofitabilityforecaststo

onethatextendsto

acompany’scarbonfootprint,laborpracticesandgovernancemodels.TheyarealsolinkingESGperformanceto

carriedinterestandportfoliocompanyexecutiveOthersareleveragingthird-party

consultantsandauditorsto

collectESGdataandidentifyareasforvaluecreation.compensation.As

ESGvaluationpremiumsbecome©2023

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Pacific

PrivateEquity

Barometer20238Regulatory

pressureHowever,asESGbenchmarksdevelop,they’reshadowedbyanotherkey

development:thatoftheregulatorylandscape.Indeed,ASPAC’sregulatoryecosystemisrichanddiverse.Chinahasbegunto

setthetonebyembeddingESGconsiderationsintocorporatenorms.Japan’sinfluenceisnudgingmarketstowardsamoreESG-aligned

mindset.Meanwhile,SoutheastAsiannations,likeSingapore,arerefiningtheirsustainabilityreportingmechanisms,raisingthebarforcorporatetransparency.01

Privateequity

inAsiaPacific:

Down

butdefinitelynotout02

NavigatingESG:Moving

beyond

basics03

Regionalopportunities:SearchingforthenextChina?04

Sectorspotlight:TechandhealthcareGlobalpoliciesarealsoextendingtheirreach.Forinstance,thereisgrowingmomentumbehindmandatingESGdisclosures,withmajormarketsliketheUKandEUfinalizingcorporatesustainabilityreportingstandards.TheUSSecuritiesandExchangeCommissionisalsoexpectedto

rolloutclimatedisclosurerulesforPE

firms.05

Exits:

Nowheretogo

butup

–butwhen?About

KPMGRegulatoryscrutinyofESGcommitmentswillonlyincreasegoingforward–andPE

firmsshouldpreparenowto

avoidbeingcaughtoffguardasmandatoryESGreportinggoesglobal.Every

deal

is

an

ESG

deal

and

between

rising

LP

expectations

and

tighteningglobal

and

regional

regulations,

ESG

is

quickly

becoming

mission-critical

for

PEfirms’

license

to

operate.

Even

if

potential

companies

or

target

investmentshave

strong

financials

and

operations,

if

the

ESK

risks

are

too

high,

the

dealprobably

won’t

go

through.Angus

ChoiPartner,ESGAdvisory,KPMG

China©2023

Copyright

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to

clients.

All

rights

reserved.Asia

Pacific

PrivateEquity

Barometer2023901

Privateequity

inAsiaPacific:

Down

butdefinitelynotout02

NavigatingESG:Movingbeyondbasics03

Regional

opportunities:Searching

for

the

next

China?0304

Sectorspotlight:Techandhealthcare05

Exits:

Nowheretogo

butup

–butwhen?RegionalAbout

KPMGopportunities:Searching

forthe

n

ext

China?©2023

Copyright

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PrivateEquity

Barometer2023

10Section

03Regional

opportunities:Searching

for

the

next

China?01

Privateequity

inAsiaPacific:

Down

butdefinitelynotout02

NavigatingESG:Movingbeyondbasics03

Regional

opportunities:Searching

for

the

next

China?ChinahaslongbeenthecornerstoneofASPAC’sprivateequitynarrative,dueinnosmallpart

to

itseconomicdynamismandmassivepopulation.However,recentgeopoliticaltensions,coupledwithsputteringeconomicgrowthandintensifyingregulatoryscrutiny,areleadinginvestorsto

reconsidertheirASPACstrategies.Figure

4:04

Sectorspotlight:TechandhealthcareAsia

Pacific

PE

investment:

Target

geographies

(US$m)200,000150,000100,00050,000005

Exits:

Nowheretogo

butup

–butwhen?About

KPMGIndeed,since2018,thegapininvestmentbetweenChinaandtherestofASPAChaswidened.Atthesametime,GPsarelookingto

separatetheirChinaoperationsfromregionalandglobalactivities–andthistrendextendsto

LPs

whoarelikewisereducingexposureto

purelyChinafocusedfunds.Thepandemichaslikelyonlyexacerbatedthisrebalancing,withinvestorslockedoutoftheChinamarketduetotravelandregulatorychallenges–althoughnotably,eveninthefirsthalfof2023

asChinareopens,thistrendhasyetto

reverse.H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1H2H1201820192020202120222023Newfrontiers:

India

andSoutheast

AsiaChinaAPAC

excl.ChinaThoughnosinglemarketcanreplicateChina’sscale,thoseinSouthandSoutheastAsiaarealreadyemergingasnewepicentersofinvestmentinterest.Source:AVCJSpecifically,

thevastsubcontinentof

India

isundergoinganeconomic

metamorphosis.

With

a

young,

tech-savvy©2023

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PrivateEquity

Barometer2023

11Figure

5:Asia

Pacific

heat

chart:

Companies

for

sale01

Privateequity

inAsiaPacific:

Down

butdefinitelynotoutSoutheastAsia(excl.

SingaporeSingapore)Australia&

NewZealandGreaterChinaSouthKoreaGrandTotalJapanIndia02

NavigatingESG:MovingbeyondbasicsIndustrials

&

ChemicalsTMT788399255280217255305209170784475896956492824153334162783162811281665545401615211348382261544201825510957791059545947659711318985785575495155102662402001809003

Regional

opportunities:Searching

for

the

next

China?04

Sectorspotlight:TechandhealthcareFinancial

ServicesEnergy,

Mining&

UtilitiesConsumer104112667105

Exits:

Nowheretogo

butup

–butwhen?Pharma,Medical&

BiotechBusiness

ServicesReal

EstateAbout

KPMG14Construction15112512217217Scale300+Leisure764428100-29980-9960-7940-5920-3910-190-9TransportationAgriculture7663216432219Defense516GrandTotal30805322312253406966165720Source:MergermarketNote:TheIntelligenceHeatChartsarebasedon

‘companiesforsale’trackedbyMergermarketintherespectiveregionsbetween01/09/2022and18/08/2023.Opportunitiesarecapturedaccordingtothedominantgeographyandsectorofthepotentialtargetcompany.©2023

Copyright

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rights

reserved.Asia

Pacific

PrivateEquity

Barometer2023

1201

Privateequity

inAsiaPacific:

Down

butdefinitelynotout02

NavigatingESG:Movingbeyondbasics03

Regional

opportunities:Searching

for

the

next

China?04

Sectorspotlight:Techandhealthcare05

Exits:

Nowheretogo

butup

–butwhen?population

that

has

already

outstripped

China

innumbers,

it

promisesa

burgeoning

consumer

base

fordecades

to

come.

And

it’s

not

just

about

thecountry’sdemographic

dividend

–

India

iswitnessing

a

techrenaissance

aswell.

Cities

like

Bangalore

are

buzzingwith

startups,

birthing

tech

unicornsat

a

pace,

drawingglobal

eyeballs.to

thematureeconomiclandscapesofSingaporeandMalaysia,providesamultifacetedplatformforPEinvestors.EventraditionalChinesemainlandinvestorsarefrequentlyadaptingtheirinvestmentstrategiesto

considerSoutheastAsianbusinessesthatarepart

oftheChinalinkedglobalsupplychainorconsumermarkets.Japan’s

lower

GDP

growth

relative

toother

ASPAC

markets

is

linked

to

itsstability

as

a

highly

transparent

andwell-regulated

market.

It

might

not

getthe

limelight

as

much

as

other

highgrowth,

frontier

markets,

but

it

offers

apredictable

and

relatively

safe

businessenvironment

where

private

equityinvestors

can

yield

great

returns.About

KPMGGlobalinvestmentbanks,meanwhile,are

movingtoexpandtheirfootprintsinIndia,bothasa

tacticalpivotinresponseto

theslowingmarketinChinaaswellasto

takeadvantageof

therapidlygrowingprivateequityandM&A

ecosystemthere.Whilechallengesremainaroundinfrastructuregaps,corporategovernanceandbureaucracy,manyPEfirmsarealreadybettingthesewillbeoutweighedbythecountry’shugegrowthpotential.WhilebothIndiaandSoutheastAsiahaveseeninvestmentflowsdeclinesince2H2021,inlinewithregionaltrends,theirrecentpeaksshowfirmcommitmentsto

thesemarketswhenconditionsarebetter.PEinvestmentinIndia,forinstance,hitafive-year

highofUS$43.4bn

inlate2021,almostdoublingfromthesameperiodin2019

(US$22.9bn).Likewise,investmentinSoutheastAsiarosefromUS$8bn

in2H2019to

US$16.4bnin2H2021.Paul

FordHeadofTransactionServices,KPMG

inJapanSoutheastAsia’sappealliesinitsdiverseeconomies–notto

mentionapopulationof650

millionMature

markets:

Japan

andAustraliaindividuals,amajorityofwhomareyoung,tech-savvyandpoisedto

reshapeconsumerbehaviorsintech,retail,financeandmore.Eachnation,fromemergingeconomieslikeVietnam,thePhilippinesandIndonesiaAlongsideASPAC’semergingmarketopportunities,JapanandAustraliaoffermoredevelopedinvestmentenvironmentsto

explore.Australia,forinstance,haslongbeenastableandwell-regulatedmarketandthe©2023

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PrivateEquity

Barometer2023

13countrybenefitsfromongoingpoliticalstability,askilledworkforceandproximityto

therestofAsiaPacific’sgrowthmarkets.accounted

for

roughly

40%

of

Asian

privateequityfundraisingin

2022

(US$57.4bn),a

number

that

roseto

73%(US$44.2bn)

in

1H2023.

China

has

alsoconsistentlyaccounted

for

close

to

half

of

AUMtotalsacross

ASPACsince

2018.

Likewise,heat

charts

showthat

Chinastilloffers

abundant

and

diverse

opportunities,rankingfar

aboveother

Asian

geographies.The

question

on

everyone’s

mind

isthis:

is

it

finally

India’s

time

to

shine?India

–

and

Southeast

Asia

for

thatmatter

–

have

long

been

consideredthe

“next

big”

market

opportunitiesin

Asia,

but

various

factors

haveheld

them

back

from

realizing

thispotential.

Regardless,

momentum

isbuilding

and

investors

are

increasinglyeyeing

these

markets

as

critical

pivotsin

their

growth

strategies.01

Privateequity

inAsiaPacific:

Down

butdefinitelynotoutJapan,likewise,remainsanintriguingmarket.Despiteanagingpopulationandperceptionsoflimitedgrowth,sectorslikehealthcare,techandfinancialservicescontinuedemonstratingstrongpotential.Equally,privateequitytransactionsinJapantendto

bemajoritycontrol–ratherthanorientedtowardminorityinvestmentslikeinIndiaorChina–whichbetterenablesprivateequityto

fullyimplementoperationalimprovementsandavaluecreationprogrampost-deal.02

NavigatingESG:MovingbeyondbasicsWhiletheriskoftensionsbecomingentrenchedremains,highlevelpoliticaleffortshavebeenmadeto

thawSino-US

relations.However,Beijing’srecentregulatoryactionstouchingsectorsfromtechtoeducationhaveprovenmoreofacurveballforinvestors.Whiletradeissuesmightebbandflowwithpoliticaltides,regulatoryuncertaintiesinChinahintatlonger-termshifts.03

Regional

opportunities:Searching

for

the

next

China?04

Sectorspotlight:TechandhealthcareAnother

positive

isthat

giventheeconomic

environment(adevalued

currency

and

near

zero

interest

rates),Japanese

assets

appear

to

be

on

sale

compared

to

othermarkets.

This

trend

islikely

to

continue–

aswill

interestfrom

global

GPs

toward

Japan.05

Exits:

Nowheretogo

butup

–butwhen?Inshort,whiletherewardsofinvestinginChinacanbegreat,sotooaretherisks.NavigatingtheChinesemarkettodayrequiresstronglocalpartnersandmarketexpertsmorethaneverbefore.Butwiththerightstrategy,investorscanstillreapsubstantialreturnsinChina.AndrewThompsonHeadofPrivateEquity,KPMG

AsiaPacificAbout

KPMGOneofthekey

challengesinJapanisageneralreluctancetowardforeignownershipamongtraditionalJapanesebusinessowners.However,

governmentpoliciesaimto

maketheeconomymoreopenandwelcomingto

foreigncapital.China:

BalancingrisksandrewardsWhile

sentiment

among

foreign

investors

may

be

cooling

towards

China,

thereality

is

that

there

are

very

few

markets

in

ASPAC

that

offer

both

a

similarabundance

of

deal

opportunities

and

sizable,

investable

targets.

For

some

ofthe

larger

PE

firms,

nothing

has

changed

and

they’re

still

closing

sizable

fundsand

focusing

on

larger

value

deals

in

China.Despite

shifting

sentiments,it

would

be

presumptuousto

declaretheChinastoryover.

Whilethereisanundeniableebbintheflowofinvestments,Chinaremainstheworld’ssecond-largesteconomy,onlybehindtheUS.Thenationisatitanofmanufacturing,ahubfortechinnovationandhometo

aburgeoningconsumermarket,allfactorsthatmakeitdifficultto

ignore.LouisNgEqually,

despitethedislocation

faced

by

China’s

privateequity

market

during

thelast

12-18

months,thecountryCo-head

PrivateEquitysector,KPMG

China©2023

Copyright

owned

by

one

or

more

of

the

KPMG

International

entities.

KPMG

International

entities

provide

no

servi