权威汽车行业入门材料

-0-AutomotiveIndustryHistory-1-Whoinventedtheautomobile?

Assumptionsconcerningtheanswertothisquestiondifferwidelythroughouttheworld:InEngland:manypeoplewilltellyouthatthecarwasinventedbyCharlesRollsandHenryRoyceInAmerica:IntheUSA,GeorgeSelden(1846-1922)claimedthathewastheinventoroftheautomobile.Thissonofapatentattorneyhadfiledapatentapplicationforamotorvehiclein1879.Hewasgrantedthepatentin1895withouteverhavingbuiltanautomobile.SeldenbombardedAmericancarmanufacturerswithdemandsforlicensefees.Itwasnotuntil1911,followingprotractedlitigation,thatHenryFordsucceededinoverturningthemysteriousSeldenpatent.

Today,mostAmericansbelievethatHenryFordinventedthecar.InAustria:evenhighlyrespectedhistoriansbelievedforalongtimethattheVienneseSiegfriedMarcus(1831-1890)builtthefirstcarin1865whenhefittedastationaryenginetoacartandtookitfora200metertestrun.InFrance:ThewidelyheldFrenchviewisthatitwasCountdeDionandGeorgesBoutonwhoinventedthecar.In1771,France’sNicolasJosephCugnot(1725-1804)designedandbuiltavehiclewhichwaslaterdeclaredtobethefirstautomobileintheworld.Itwasamonstroussteam-poweredaffairwhichissaidtohavecausedaroadaccidentduringatestrun.In1801,itwastakentotheConservatoireNationaldesArtsetMétiersinParis.-2-ThefirstautomobileintheworldYearbuilt:1771Name:LeFardier

Inventor:JosephNicolasCugnot,FranceTechnology:2verticalcylindersteamengineCylindersvolume:62litersMaxspeed:4km/h(~2.5mph)Whereisitnow?MuséeNationaldesTechniquesduC.N.A.M.-Paris-3-

1950 1970 1990 20001) GeneralMotors GeneralMotors GeneralMotors GeneralMotors2) Ford Ford Ford Ford3) Chrysler Chrysler Toyota Volkswagen4) Studebaker Volkswagen Nissan Toyota5) Nash Fiat Volkswagen Daimler-Chrysler6) Kaiser-Frazer Toyota Fiat Nissan7) Morris Nissan Honda Honda8) Hudson Renault PSA Fiat9) Austin BritishLeyland Chrysler PSA10) Renault PSA Renault RenaultEachdecade,themakeupoftheindustrychangessignificantlyTop10Manufacturers(involume)-4-Today'sAutomotiveIndustryOverview-5-AutomotiveMarketsizekeyfigures

(passengercarsandutilityvehicles,inthousands)America: 272,627 (UnitedStatesalone: 203,720)Europe: 264,217 (EuropeanUnionalone:190,083)Asia: 126,301 (Japanalone: 70,815)MiddleEast: 18,346Africa: 14,956Australia: 14,250Source:CCFA-6-MarketsizeVolumedividestheworldintotwosets:Largeregionalmarkets:NorthAmerica,WestEurope,andAsia-PacificSmallerregions:SouthAmerica,EastEurope,Africa/MiddleEast-7-MarkettypesMaturemarkets:NorthAmerica,WestEurope,JapanandAustraliareplacementdemandEmergingmarkets:DevelopingAsia,SouthAmerica,EastEurope,Africa/MiddleEastincrementaldemandhugeopportunities(formerSovietUnion,ChinaandIndiahavehugepopulationswithlowcardensity)maytakegenerationsforconsumerstandardsoflivingtoreachwesternstandards(long-termviewforshareholders)70%ofanticipatedgrowthexpectedtocomefromoutsideofNorthAmericaandWesternEurope-8-GrowthProspectsGloballightvehicleproductionisgrowingfrom55+millionunitsCapacityissurpassing80millionunits-9-GrowthProspects-10-World'sLargestvehicleManufacturers-11-CreationoftheGlobalSix0246810MillionsofUnitsBMW

Mitsubishi

HyundaiGroupPSAFIATHonda

DaimlerChrysler

VWGroup

Renault-Nissan

ToyotaFordGMGlobalLightVehicleProduction1998to2005Average,bybrand-12-StockExchange:NYSEHeadquarters:Detroit,MI,USAFoundedin:19082000data:Revenues:$183.3billionNumberofcarandtrucksales:8.6millionNumberofemployees:372,000Brands:Chevrolet,Pontiac,Buick,Oldsmobile,Cadillac,GMC,Saturn,Hummer,Saab,Opel,Vauxhall,HoldenFinancing:GMACGeneralMotorsCorporation-13-GeneralMotorsCorporationStrategicIntentGlobal,NorthAmericanexpansion...neverwantstosurrender#1rankingMarketshareversusprofitabilitymentalityremains…underthreatwithFordgrowthLeveragesize,globalcoverage/componentsystemsapproachEmbarkedonnew"lean"capacityexpansionaroundtheworldAttemptingtoextendpolicytodevelopingmarketsStrengthsSurvivalguaranteedinageofconsolidationStrategicalliancessought,butnotfoundsofarEarlycostreductionprogramspayingdividendsHugeglobalplatforms(architectures)offerenviablescale,ifsuccessfulDelphispin-offShouldhelpvehicleside'ssupplystrategy,costcompetitivenessandlaborsituationWeaknessesNorthAmericahas“toomany”everything(brands,models,plants,workers,dealers)Brandconfusion...internalreorganization,againTryingtorevolutionizelaborcontract/relationship/roleinatimeoflaborunrestProductuninspiring...car-truckhybridslasttomarket,althoughinstunningvarietyEurope,formercashcow,remainsonlifesupportInternaldisarray…productlacking...engineeringoverextended-14-FordMotorCompanyStockExchange:NYSEHeadquarters:Dearborn,MI,USAFoundedin:19032000data:Revenues:$170.06billionNumberofcarandtrucksales:7.424millionNumberofemployees:346,000Brands:Ford,Mercury,Mazda,AstonMartin,Jaguar,Lincoln,Volvo,LandRover,Financing:FordCreditFinancingJacquesNasser,FordMotorCompanyPresidentandChiefExecutiveOfficer-15-StrategicIntentUS$6.45billionVolvopurchasebeatoutothersuitors(VW,FIAT,possiblyGM)PurchasebridgesthegapinEuropebetweenFordandJaguarWillstrengthenunderrepresenteddemographicwithinFordproductline-upinNorthAmericaFordhasproven(withJaguar)thattheycanmanagebrandheritageStrengthsNorealproductoverlapWillfitaboveMondeoinEurope(anareaoftraditionalFordweakness)andhasadifferenttargetaudiencethanJaguarInNA:willnotintrudeonLincoln“traditionalluxury”Platformsharingopportunities:CDW-basedS/V40,Focus-basedsmallcar(premiumhatch),etc.WillsolidifyFord’sstandingintheglobalpremiumcarsegmentwhenitsprimarycompetitor(GM)isshowingweaknessesinthecategoryEx-BMWproductguru,WolfgangReitzle,toheadnewFordPremiumCarGroup(Lincoln,Volvo,Jag,Aston)--fitsinwithFord’s“carguys”(Nasser,Parry-Jones,Mays)BringsFordever-closertonumberoneintheworldintotalproductionWeaknessesFordwillhavetoaddressVolvo’shighoverheadandproductioncostLikeJaguar,couldbeadecadebeforetruesynergiesareachieved(Volvoproductstoofaralongindevelopmentforquickplatformsharing)FordMotorCompany-16-ToyotaMotorCorporationStockExchange:TokyoHeadquarters:Tokyo,JapanFoundedin:19372000data(April1999march2000):Revenues:Yen12.879billions(US$121billiontranslatedattherateof¥106.15=US$1,theapproximatecurrentexchangerateatMarch31,2000)Numberofcarandtrucksales:5.53millionNumberofemployees:210,000Brands:Toyota,Lexus,DaihatsuFinancing:ToyotaFinanceCorporation,ToyotaMotorCreditCorporationFujioCho,PresidentandChiefExecutiveOfficer-17-StrategicIntentGrowlargerEmbracing"biggerisbetter":10%ofglobalmarket,40%ofJapanesemarketIntegrateDaihatsu,Hino,AutoWorksDiversificationawayfromconventionalvehiclemanufacturingSpread,notadapt,currentcultureasmeanstosuccessinnewmarketsStrugglinginternallywithappropriateorganizationalstructure,managerialstyleStrengthsFinancialstrengthandstabilityLeadership:Okudaaggressive,discerning…goalofidentifying/overcomingallautomotiveweaknessesManufacturing&qualitystilltheglobalbenchmarkWeaknessesLapsein“NewGlobalBusinessPlan”Goalfor65%non-Japaneseproductionin1997,currentlyat53%ConsiderableexposuretoSouthEastAsia…U.S.marketaccountsforestimated50%ofprofitProductportfolioLacksviableupscalebrandoutsideNorthAmerica...LexusisaMercedes/BMWalternativeonlyinNorthAmericaAgingcustomerbaseinkeymarkets...Civicgetstheyoungbuyer;CorollagetstheretireesinNorthAmerica...needsyoungcustomerstomoveuptomoreprofitablevehiclesToyotaMotorCorporation-18-Renault-Nissan

(Thecompaniesarenotconsolidated)StockExchange: Renault:Paris Nissan:TokyoHeadquarters: Renault:Boulogne-Billancourt(France) Nissan:Tokyo,(Japan)Foundedin:1898(Renault),1933(Nissan)2000data:Revenues:Euro40billions(Renault),US$56billions(April1999March2000,Nissan)Numberofcarandtrucksales:2.35million(Renault,includingLCVs),2.6million(Nissan)Numberofemployees:166,000(Renault)133,000(Nissan,includingconsolidatedsubsidiaries)Brands:Renault,Nissan,Dacia,Samsung,InfinityFinancing:RenaultCréditInternational(RCI)LouisSchweitzer,RenaultChairmanandChiefExecutiveOfficer-19-Renault-NissanStrategicIntentHigh-riskindependencestrategyRenault:onlywaytogetbiggerandretaincontrol;Nissan:onlywaytoavoidbankruptcyTogether:findenoughcostsavingstofendoffotherGlobalfiveStrengthsStrengthsNiceon-paperstrategicfitFourthlargestautomaker;well-balancedregionalproductionmixComplementarybusinessstrengthsNissan:manufacturing,technology,engineeringRenault:productplanning,management,designProductcomplementationMixofRenault’ssegmentinnovationandNissan’sspeedtomarketholdspotentialWeaknessesThisisnotamerger!BenefitsofsizeandcooperationcanonlystemfromintegrationReluctantalliance…Nissanproud,RenaultsmallerandclearsecondchoicetoDaimlerChryslerEnormousculturalbarrierstoovercomeDebt,debt,debt…excesscapacity...stilllotsofhardchoicesyettobemadeDifficultyinfindingfinancingfornextgenerationofvehicles,futureinvestmentNumbernineinkeylong-termgrowthpotentialdevelopingAsiamarket-20-VolkswagenAGStockExchange:FrankfurtHeadquarters:Wolfsburg,GermanyFoundedin:19382000data:Revenues:Euro85.25billionNumberofcarandtrucksales:5.1millionNumberofemployees:324,000Brands:Volkswagen,Audi,Seat,RollsRoyce,Bentley,Skoda,Bugatti,LamborghiniFinancing:VolkswagenBank,VolkswagenLeasingFerdinandPiëch,VolkswagenAGChairman-21-StrategicIntentWorlddomination...oneofGlobalBig6NoapparentboundstoPiëch'sambitionsOverly-ambitiousautocraticleaderwhothreatenscorporate/industrystability,orgenius?Global,full-linevehicleproducerFoundationforeverythingelse:differentiatedbrands/productsforallsegmentsandmarketsAggressivelytargetingvolumeandproductdiversityincrements,basedonmultiplebrands...acquisitionsreinforceambitions…growcommercialvehicles,bigtrucksBeeverywhereimportantandbebig(WE,SA,China,EE,NA,India)...regainstatusisinNA...whataboutSEAsia?StrengthsMostadvancedplatformconsolidation/supplierschemeDifferentiatedbrandstrategiesfromcommonplatformsholdingup...enormoussavingsLopezlegacy:forgingandexperimentingwithnewrelationshipsDividendsfrompastrationalizationplans,acquisitions...stillhungryNumberoneinEuropeandgrowing...integratingEastEuropeWeaknessesProfitabilitystilllagsthatofotherGlobal5Dangerofdilutedbrandequityduetobrandoverload(seeGM)Costofmaintaining/differentiatingallbrands/productscouldbecomeoverwhelming…ifVWstumbles,weightofbrandproliferationcouldbringitdownVolkswagenAG-22-Daimler-ChryslerAGStockExchange:FrankfurtandNYSEHeadquarters:Stuttgart,GermanyandAuburnHills,MI,USAFoundedin:1883Benz&Cie,1890Daimler-Motoren-Gesellschaft,1926Daimler-BenzAG,1998Daimler-ChryslerAG2000data:Revenues:Euro162.3billionsNumberofcarandtrucksales:4.75millionNumberofemployees:416.500Brands:MercedesBenz,SMART,Chrysler,Jeep,Dodge,Financing:Daimler-ChryslerDebisfinancialservicesJürgenE.Schrempp,Daimler-ChryslerAGChairmanandChiefExecutiveOfficer-23-StrategicIntentBecomethebestofthebiggest…oneofultimateglobaltopthreeLeveragecomplementarystrengthstobecomemostefficient,agileandeffectiveplayeronaglobalscaleGrowthebusinesswithacknowledgedexpansionistpolicyConquestsalesinestablishedmarketsGrowdownscalevolumeinEuropeEnrichbrandpolicyDevelopSouthAmericaandAsiaStrengthsSynergyChrysleragility,visionandextendedenterprise+DaimlerengineeringBenefitfromascaleneitherenjoyedbeforeDifferentiatedbrandequity,productsandgeography=growthwithoutcasualtiesResourcestoabsorbrisk&affordexpansionplansWeaknessesEnormoustransitional,culturalbarrierstoovercomeLagscompetitorsinplatformconsolidationstrategiesVulnerableinthecost,scalebattlesPlatformdeproliferationcouldbeproblematicStilllacksAsianemergingmarketpresenceDaimler-ChryslerAG-24-World'sLargestSuppliers-25-Top10Suppliers(insales)

Company 2000Sales 1. Delphi $29.14billion2. RobertBosch $21.37billion(DM44billionconvertedat$/DM0.4856asofJan.2,2001)3. Visteon $19.5billion4. DensoCorp. $16.25billion5. Lear $14.07billion6. JohnsonControls $12.74billion7. TRWInc $11billion8. DanaCorp. $9.91billion9.Valeo $8.66billion(FF59.82billionconvertedatFF/$0.1448asofJan.2,2001)10.AisinSeiki $8.24billion(Yen942.5billionconvertedatYen/$0.008745asofJan.2,2001)-26-StockExchange:NYSEHeadquarters:Troy,MI,USAFoundedin:1999(previouslypartofGeneralMotorsCorporation)2000data:Revenues:UD$29.14billionNumberofemployees:202,700Businesssectors:Dynamics&Propulsion;SafetyThermal&ElectricalArchitectureElectronics&MobileCommunicationDelphiAutomotiveSystemsJ.T.BattenbergIII

ChairmanoftheBoard,ChiefExecutiveOfficer&President,DelphiAutomotiveSystems

-27-StockExchange:nottradedHeadquarters:Stuttgart,GermanyFoundedin:18862000data:Revenues:44billionDMNumberofemployees:140,400Businesssectors:Fuelinjectiontechnologyforinternalcombustionengines(dieselandgasoline)SystemsforactiveandpassivevehiclesafetyElectricalmachines(starters,alternators,small-powermotors)Mobilecommunicationproducts(carradios,navigationsystemsanddriverinformationsystems)RobertBoschGmbHHermannscholl,BoschChairmanoftheBoardandpresident-28-StockExchange:NYSEHeadquarters:Dearborn,MI,USAFoundedin:2000(previouslypartofFordMotorCompany)2000data:Revenues:US$19.5billionNumberofemployees:82,000Businesssectors:Comfort,CommunicationsandSafety(ClimateControl,InteriorandExteriorandTelematics/MultimediaSystems)DynamicsandEnergyConversion(EnergyTransformationandChassisSystems)GlassVisteonCorporationPeterJ.Pestillo,ChairmanandChiefExecutiveOfficerofVisteonCorporation

-29-Globalization-30-Whatisglobalization?Thisisthesearchforincrementalvolumeleveragingknow-howfromotherpartsoftheworld,I.e.togrowvolumeoverastablecostofinvestmentbase,therebyachievingbetterreturns.but…Therearehugedifferencesbetweenconsumerexpectationsinthedevelopedworldandinemergingmarkets.Ontopofthat,vastculturaldifferencesexistevenwithinthedevelopedworld-compareconsumertasteinNorthAmerica,EuropeandJapan.Thetransferofyesterday'stechnologytoemergingmarketsisnolongeranoptionastheyaredemandingnewertechnologyandvehiclecharacteristicsappropriatetotheirownconditionsSignificantincrementalcapitalinvestment(e.g.co-locationofthesuppliercommunitiesinthenewassemblysites)isoftennecessary-31-GlobalSixGlobalizationProfilesbyRegion-32-GlobalizationandExcessCapacity-33-GlobalizationandExcessCapacityFundamentaleffectivenessoftheindustry'sglobalizationinitiativestodate?-34-ExcessCapacity:TheSizeoftheProblemUtilizationwillimprove,butnotbyenough.Atthecurrentgrowthratetrend,globalassemblywouldnotutilizeexistingcapacitylevelsuntilafter2020-35-ExcessCapacity:whereandwhichmanufacturer?

GlobalExcessCapacity 1998-2005averageGM11%Ford7%FiatGroup6%Nissan5%VWGroup5%Toyota4%Other62%-36-RegionalCapacityUtilization,1998-2005AverageAsia-PacificWesternEuropeEasternEuropeNorthAmericaSouthAmericaMiddleEast/Africa0153050%75%100%UtilizationRateMillionsofUnitsofCapacityExcessCapacity:RegionalScorecard-37-ExcessCapacity:ManufacturerScorecardAutomakerCapacityUtilization,1998-2005AverageGMFordToyotaVWDCNissanHondaFiatPSAHyundai061250%75%100%UtilizationRateMillionsofUnitsofCapacityRenaultRenault-Nissan-38-ExcessCapacity:SoWhat?

DirectCostsIndirectCostsIncreasedcompetitiveintensityatalllevels LowerReturns-39-EffectsofGlobalizationWhileglobalizationmaycontributetovolumeleadership,itrequiressophisticatedmanagementofassetsandsupplychainpartnerstoconnecttothevastsegmentsofconsumersindifferentregionsConsolidationaimsnotonlytoincreasevolumebygivingaccesstovolumegeneratingmarkets,butalsotodecreasethecostbasethroughtheeliminationofredundantassetssuchasthenumberofproductionfacilitiesandsuppliersGlobalPlatformsaimtoprovideawiderend-productrangeacrossasmallernumberofbasicdesignstructures,therebyleveragingdevelopmentandothercostsforagreatervolumeopportunity-40-Consolidation-41-Consolidationbenefits

Increasedaccesstovolumegeneratingmarkets

Potentialeconomiesofscalethroughtheexpansionoftheenterprise

Accesstoexpandedskillsetsandcompetencies

Accesstoinnovation

-42-ConsolidationFacts

Worldwide,therearestill250companiesengagedintheassemblyoflightvehicles,butfewhaveglobalsignificanceOfthetop20automakersin1965,14havemergedorhavesincebeentakenoverBy2006,thetop14vehiclemanufacturersintheworldwillaccountforalmost90%oftotalvehicleoutput

-43-ConsolidationprioritiesConsolidationprioritiesaredifferentforvehiclemanufacturersandsuppliersVehiclemanufacturersconsolidationtendstoemphasizeincreasedgeographicreachandproductrangeSuppliersconsolidationismorecapabilitydriven,withtheemphasisonacquiringnewcompetenciesinthedrivetowardsintegratorstatusGiventhesedifferencesinconsolidationprioritiesbetweenvehiclemanufacturersandsuppliers,andgivenotherreasonsaswell,somevehiclemanufacturersandsuppliershavedecidedthattheybothwouldbebetterofffocusingonandpursuingtheirowncorebusiness.DelphiwasspunofffromGeneralMotorsCorporationinMay1999VisteonwasspunofffromFordMotorCompanyinJune2000

-44-MergerandacquisitionactivitiesThepastyearssawsignificantmergeractivityamongtheranksoftheword’sautomakers.Thistrendhasbeentriggeredbyacombinationofcostpressures,cutthroatpricing,andsignificantglobalovercapacity.Themajoractivityoflastyearincludes:TheUS$35billionmega-mergerofDaimlerandChryslerwhichreallysetmergermaniaintohighgearFord’sacquisitionofVolvo’scaroperationsRenault’sequityparticipationinthestrugglingNissanHyundai’sacquisitionofbankruptKiaMotorsthroughaglobalactionDaewooandSamsungMotorsbusinessswappingdeal

-45-GlobalConsolidationManybelievethatbytheendofthenextdecade,orevensooner,therewillbeonlyfiveorsixautomakers.JacNasserwasquotedassayingrecently,“Forglobalplayerstobereallycompetitive,theirsalesvolumeswillhavetobeover5millionunitsayear.”Themostlikelytomakeitintothe“Big6”willbe:GeneralMotorsFordDaimlerChryslerVolkswagenToyotaRenault-Nissan-46-Whatdoesitmeanfortheremainingcarmakerswithoutpartners?

PSA,Fiat,Mitsubishi,andFujiareperceivedasincreasinglyvulnerableCouldforceactionfromcurrentlystrong,independentautomakerslikeHonda,BMWorevenToyotaMergerintegrationdifficultiesofthe"GlobalSix"couldgivebreathingroomtosmallerautomakersinthenear-termDaimlerChryslerisdistractedbymergerissues(akeyreasongivenfortheiravoidingaNissanstake)FordisreorganizingyetagainwithitsnewluxurydivisionGMisstillstrugglingtomakesizeanadvantagewithglobalplatformsandcommonizationVolkswagenistryingtosuccessfullyleverage/expand/differentiateitsmultitudeofbrandsThiscouldallowsomesalesconquestpotentialforaggressive,quick-to-marketsmallermakerswhodon'tsufferfrommergerdistractionsorportfoliomanagementissuesGlobalConsolidation-47-ThecurrentstateofconsolidationFord-VolvoFord-JaguarFord-AstonMartinFord-MazdaGM-SaabGM-IsuzuGM-Daewoo(?)VW-LamborghiniVW-BentleyBMW-Rover(fellapart)Fiat-AlfaRomeoFiat-FerrariDaimlerChryslerRenault-NissanHyundai-KiaDaewoo-SsangyongDaewoo-Samsung(fallingapart)Goodyear-SumitomoTRW-LucasVaritySeibe-BTRJCI-RecaroLear-UTAutomotiveValeo-ITTJCI-BeckerGroupDana-EatonJCI-PrinceDana-EchlinSPX-GeneralSignalCorp.Aeroquip-EatonBosch-MagnettiMarelliExce