固定收益PSL重启关注货币政策

证券研究报告投资要点：2024年1投资要点：2024年1月5PSL发展历程回顾。1）2014420159月期间，PSL主要根据棚改贷款进度投放。2）2015102016年底，PSL投放领域和20195）2022月，PSL连续三个月大规模净投放，或主要用于支持基建领域。此次PSLPSLM2重启或是为了支持“三大工程”建设，提供长期稳定、低成本的资金。债市调整即机会，关注货币政策。1210Y国开债活跃券、10Y国债活跃券利率分别+2.3bp+1.2bpPSL央行回笼流动性，以及机构止盈情绪有所显现。展望后续，结合历史经验来看，PSL对债市短期内影响偏空，中长期要看经济和各类政策力度等。111/4日十年国债利率已突破前低，1月政策利率调整情况和市场止盈情绪变化，关注调整风险和调整后配置机会。此外，存单利率上行压力或仍在；30Y国债利率处偏低水平，但开年配置情绪较好，预计调整空间或有限。二永供需格局有支撑，叠加资产荒逻辑延续，若降息可关注短久期二永债利差补降的波段机会。风险提示：基本面变化、政策不及预期或超预期、信用风险、股市波动。请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明图目录图1 PSL发展历程回顾（亿元） 5图2 PSL重启，短期会压制债市表现（指标为10Y国债利率，%） 6图3 除了PSL，债市利率也要看经济情况（亿元，%） 6图4 LPR利率互换隐含1月有降息的可能性 7表目录表1 信用债品种利率水平与利差所处分位数（%，截至1月2日） 71212350032522亿元。这是PSLPSL1.PSL发展历程回顾PSLPSL144月首次由央行创设，创设目的在于为开发性金融支持棚户PSL3-5PSL利率水平，同时可以缓解流动性的结构失衡以支持特定领域。结合发行规模、政策背景等因素来看，PSL发展历史可分为以下几个阶段：4201592014年国内经济处于增速换挡期、外汇占款下降，央行适时加强主动管理，货币政策工具取代外汇占款成为基础货币供给的主渠道，对结构性货币政策工具也更为重视。同时，政700470万套以上2。在这样的历史背景下，PSL工具应运而生，前期投放主要为棚156月起才开始每月定期公布开展情况。1020161510月起，PSL的对象由国发行一家扩大至三家政策行，主要用于支持发放棚改贷款、重大水利工程贷款、人民币“走出去”项目贷款等。期间，PSL159月末的9589161220526152.75%后稳定在这一水平。3）2017年，PSL规模回落。2017年是棚改三年计划收官之年，在前期棚改进展顺利、政策行放贷工作有序推进条件下，2017PSL的依赖有所下降，至17年底，PSL16635016年增幅的三分之二。4）20182019年，PSL短暂冲高后回落，随棚改政策收紧而退潮。18年初，580PSL18年上半年回温，850幅上涨，老旧小区改造逐渐成为住房工作重点，棚改政策趋于收紧，PSL194月后暂停。199月，PSL重启，但持续时间短且规模较小，对此央行解释称“今年以券筹资的成本是降低的，所以对L的需求是下降的5）2022年9-11月，PSL连续三个月大规模净投放，或主要用于支持基建领域。9-11月，PSL新增规模合计6300亿元。央行于22年三季度《货币政策执行报告》中表示“运用抵押补充贷款支持政策性、开发性金融机构为基础设施重点领域设立金融工具和提供信贷支持”，表明其用途应为支持基建投资。1/zhengcehuobisi/125207/125213/2161446/2161457/5188121/index.html2/xinwen/2014-08/05/content_2729866.htm3https:///xinwen/2019-10/16/content_5440807.htm图1PSL发展历程回顾（亿元）4,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005000

2017年是棚改三年计划2017年是棚改三年计划收官之年，余额新增6350亿元。PSL投放领域和主体均有扩大。15年10月~16年12月余额新增1.09万亿元。22年9-11月余额共新增6300亿元，主要支持基建投资。2018年新的三年棚改计划启动，余额新增6919亿元。创设之初，主要根据棚改贷款进度投放，2014年共投放3831亿元。5,000014/1215/0916/0617/0317/1218/0919/0620/0320/1221/0922/0623/0323/12中国:抵押补充贷款(PSL):提供资金:当月新增 中国:抵押补充贷款(PSL):期末余额（右轴）资料来源：，HTIPSL投放对贷款增长有杠杆放大效应，同时将通过货币乘数派生M2规模。央行202013.5元的贷款增长，是500亿元的L投放可拉动约PSL238.023500亿元的净PSL2.8M2M2M2同比增速为%从用途来看，此次PSL重启或是为了支持“三大工程”建设。PSL用途在于为特定领域提供长期稳定、低成本的资金。23月央行行长潘功胜曾表示“为保障性住障性住房建设2.指示：债市调整即机会，关注货币政策24/1/2央行发布公告抵押补充贷款0Y国开债活跃券、0Y国债活跃利率分别b、+1.2bp。PSL政策超前发力，出乎我们预期。12月初央行行长潘功胜表示5“为保障性住房L作为投放中长期低成本资金的结构性货币工具是有可能被使用的。以及，我们在《20231202：动不失时，票息为盾——2024年债市展望》中也表示“广义财政有望适时扩容…准财政工具的发力”等。10Y2.56%，机构止盈情绪显现。展望后续，PSL对债市影响如何？回顾历史可以发现，2015-2018PSL余额持续增长时，债市利率短暂上行后走出牛-熊-PSL余额走势并不一致，22PSL上行，从震荡到走熊的原因主要是防疫政策优化叠加地产政策变动引发了债市赎回负反PSL可能会连续投放，22PSL630022PSL新增PSL4/zhengcehuobisi/125207/125213/2161446/2161457/5188121/index.html5https://www.go/govweb/lianbo/bumen/202312/content_6918449.htm图2PSL重启，短期会压制债市表现（指标为10Y国债利率，%） 2015年22年9-12月PSL投放时，10Y国债利率走势3.602.833.602.833.552.783.502.733.452.683.402.633.352.583.302.53-14-11-8-5-21471013161922252831343740434649525558

资料来源：wind，HTI，横轴0为PSL重启所在月份的第一个交易日，其余同理图3除了PSL，债市利率也要看经济情况（亿元，%） PSL余额10Y国债利率（右轴）15/1 16/1 17/1 18/1 19/1 20/1 21/1 22/1 23/1中国:经景气数 10Y国债利（右）35,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000

65605550454035302515/1 16/1 17/1 18/1 19/1 20/1 21/1

4.24.03.23.0资料来源：wind，HTI建议关注货币政策配合的情况PSL1月降LPR12312PMI继续下降，已连续三个月在萎缩区间，1212月22日起大行新一轮存款利率下调，此前存款利率下调分别是在22年9月、23年692282368OMO/MLF因此我们建议继续241OMOMLF利率调整的可能性。此外，债市供需格局或将改善，我们预计1月政府债净供给压力或边际缓解，叠加银行考核压力暂告一段落，银行保险开门红配置力量可期。图4LPR利率互换隐含1月有降息的可能性1YLPR降息1YLPR降息/加息预期（BP）利率互换:LPR1Y:1年（%）LPR:1年（%，右轴）

503.4

20/120/4

20/720/1021/121/421/721/1022/122/422/722/1023/123/423/723/10

-25资料来源：wind，HTI11/4（2381月政策利率调整情况和市场止盈情绪变化，关注调整风险和调整后配置机会。此外，央行节后连续回预计调整空间或有限。年初二永债具有配置盘布局需求，且供给压力或可控，在资产荒逻辑支撑下，我们预计利差回调的风险不大，后续若降息可关注短久期二永债利差补降的波段机会。表1信用债品种利率水平与利差所处分位数（%，截至1月2日）1月2日二级资本债AAA- AA+ AA永续债AAA- AA+ AA中票AAA AA+ AA城投债AAA AA+ AA当前利率水 2年平 2.68 2.692.802.74 2.752.842.522.632.722.572.682.792.74 2.772.882.83 2.842.942.662.772.902.692.812.922.88 2.903.022.97 2.99 3.092.712.853.082.772.873.022.99 3.01 3.133.03 3.07 3.213.06 3.113.08 3.133.262.802.983.332.853.003.002.943.163.512.92与国开债利 期差所处分位 期数（3年） 48 4441 363540302325101918 2329394039221731291554392665523728102013 144425 172115813 1343 201191369 947 6029211020与国开债利 期差所处分位 期数（1年） 62 565143341122 284338 50 461810450 044312251341760 04 2 0020 20 0241 6 0 0 00 0 00 0 040 0 08702 0 0企业债AAA AA+ AA可续期产业债AAA AA+ AA非公开产业债AAA AA+ AA普通金融债AAA AA+ AA当前利率水 2年平 2.562.682.742.732.832.942.672.812.922.472.532.632.662.782.912.89 2.973.122.842.953.053.102.552.632.732.752.873.102.94 3.063.352.923.332.652.682.752.792.852.812.983.323.033.203.753.083.353.772.902.933.153.503.173.403.933.213.593.962.792.903.04与国开债利 期差所处分位 期数（3年） 3836392324164725517 19823182255623333313346 391546204114113110 077 77431520140 090137 321738 31230712639604837与国开债利 期差所处分位 期数（1年） 46 50 46523341527 2236 3423 305731 18 2223 17038483216250 0 00 0 00 0 00 0 0625572 651 0 020 00 061481340884 8776注：数据分别为滚动三年分位数和滚动一年分位数，永续债利差滚动三年分位数为2021年8月16日以来。资料来源：，HTI风险提示：基本面变化、政策不及预期或超预期、信用风险、股市波动。附录APPENDIX重要信息披露本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司(HTIRL)，HaitongSecuritiesIndiaPrivateLimited(HSIPL)，HaitongInternationalJapanK.K.(HTIJKK)和海通国际证券有限公司(HTISCL)的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团(HTISG)各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。IMPORTANTDISCLOSURESThisresearchreportisdistributedbyHaitongInternational,aglobalbrandnamefortheequityresearchteamsofHaitongInternationalResearchLimited(“HTIRL”),HaitongSecuritiesIndiaPrivateLimited(“HSIPL”),HaitongInternationalJapanK.K.(“HTIJKK”),HaitongInternationalSecuritiesCompanyLimited(“HTISCL”),andanyothermemberswithintheHaitongInternationalSecuritiesGroupofCompanies(“HTISG”),eachauthorizedtoengageinsecuritiesactivitiesinitsrespectivejurisdiction.HTIRL分析师认证AnalystCertification:我，宋奇，在此保证（i）（ii）（包括我们的家属）（我已经告知他们）报告发布后的3I,StevenSong,certifythat(i)theviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportaccuratelyreflectmypersonalviewsaboutanyorallofthesubjectcompaniesorissuersreferredtointhisresearchand(ii)nopartofmycompensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreport;andthatI(includingmembersofmyhousehold)havenofinancialinterestinthesecurityorsecuritiesofthesubjectcompaniesdiscussed.Iandmyhousehold,whomIhavealreadynotifiedofthis,willnotdealinortradeanysecuritiesinrespectoftheissuerthatIreviewwithin3businessdaysaftertheresearchreportispublished.利益冲突披露ConflictofInterestDisclosures/（ERDDisclosure@htiseccom）HTIandsomeofitsaffiliatesmayengageininvestmentbankingand/orserveasamarketmakerorholdproprietarytradingpositionsofcertainstocksorcompaniesinthisresearchreport.Asfarasthisresearchreportisconcerned,thefollowingarethedisclosuremattersrelatedtosuchrelationship(Asthefollowingdisclosuredoesnotensuretimelinessandcompleteness,pleasesendanemailtoERD-Disclosure@htisec.comiftimelyandcomprehensiveinformationisneeded).评级定义（从2020年7月1日开始执行）：（“HTI）HTI的评级定义。并且HTI基于各自情况（）分析师股票评级优于大市12-1810%下中性，未来12-18FINRA/NYSE的评级分布规则，我们会将中性评级划入持有这一类别。弱于大市12-1810%TOPIX,KOSPI,TAIEX,Nifty100,美–SP500;其他所有中国概念股MSCIChina.RatingsDefinitions(from1Jul2020):HaitongInternationalusesarelativeratingsystemusingOutperform,Neutral,orUnderperformforrecommendingthestockswecovertoinvestors.InvestorsshouldcarefullyreadthedefinitionsofallratingsusedinHaitongInternationalResearch.Inaddition,sinceHaitongInternationalResearchcontainsmorecompleteinformationconcerningtheanalyst'sviews,investorsshouldcarefullyreadHaitongInternationalResearch,initsentirety,andnotinferthecontentsfromtheratingalone.Inanycase,ratings(orresearch)shouldnotbeusedorrelieduponasinvestmentadvice.Aninvestor'sdecisiontobuyorsellastockshoulddependonindividualcircumstances(suchastheinvestor'sexistingholdings)andotherconsiderations.AnalystStockRatingsOutperform:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtoexceedthereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,as

评级分布RatingDistributionindicatedbelow.Neutral:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtobeinlinewiththereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.ForpurposesonlyofFINRA/NYSEratingsdistributionrules,ourNeutralratingfallsintoaholdratingcategory.Underperform:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtobebelowthereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.Benchmarksforeachstock’slistedregionareasfollows:Japan–TOPIX,Korea–Taiwan–TAIEX,–Nifty100,US–SP500;forallotherChina-conceptstocks–MSCIChina.截至2023年9月30日海通国际股票研究评级分布优于大市 中性 弱于大市(持有)海通国际股票研究覆盖率 89.3% 1.1% 9.6%投资银行客户* 3.9% 5.8% 10.0%*在每个评级类别里投资银行客户所占的百分比。上述分布中的买入，中性和卖出分别对应我们当前优于大市，中性和落后大市评级。只有根据FINRA/NYSE此前的评级系统定义（直至2020年6月30日）：买入，未来1218个月内预期相对基准指数涨幅在10%中性，未来1218FINRA/NYSE卖出，未来1218个月内预期相对基准指数跌幅在10%各地股票基准指数：日本–TOPIX,韩国–KOSPI,台湾–TAIEX,印度–Nifty100;其他所有中国概念股–MSCIChina.HaitongInternationalEquityResearchRatingsDistribution,asofSeptember30,2023Outperform Neutral Underperform(hold)HTIEquityResearchCoverage 89.3% 1.1% 9.6%IBclients* 3.9% 5.8% 10.0%*Percentageofinvestmentbankingclientsineachratingcategory.BUY,Neutral,andSELLintheabovedistributioncorrespondtoourcurrentratingsofOutperform,Neutral,andUnderperform.ForpurposesonlyofFINRA/NYSEratingsdistributionrules,ourNeutralratingfallsintoaholdratingcategory.PleasenotethatstockswithanNRdesignationarenotincludedinthetableabove.Previousratingsystemdefinitions(until30Jun2020):BUY:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtoexceedthereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.NEUTRAL:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtobeinlinewiththereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.ForpurposesonlyofFINRA/NYSEratingsdistributionrules,ourNeutralratingfallsintoaholdratingcategory.SELL:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtobebelowthereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.Benchmarksforeachstock’slistedregionareasfollows:Japan–TOPIX,Korea–Taiwan–TAIEX,–Nifty100;forallotherChina-conceptstocks–MSCIChina.海通国际非评级研究：了进行股票评级、提出目标价格或进行基本面估值，而仅供参考使用。HaitongInternationalNon-RatedResearch:HaitongInternationalpublishesquantitative,screeningorshortreportswhichmayrankstocksaccordingtovaluationandothermetricsormaysuggestpricesbasedonpossiblevaluationmultiples.Suchrankingsorsuggestedpricesdonotpurporttobestockratingsortargetpricesorfundamentalvaluesandareforinformationonly.海通国际A股覆盖：海通国际可能会就沪港通及深港通的中国A（600837CH）A是，海通国际使用与海通证券不同的评级系统，所以海通国际与海通证券的中国A股评级可能有所不同。HaitongInternationalCoverageofA-Shares:HaitongInternationalmaycoverandrateA-SharesthataresubjecttotheHongKongStockConnectschemewithShanghaiandShenzhen.HaitongSecurities(HS;600837CH),theultimateparentcompanyofHTISGbasedinShanghai,coversandpublishesresearchonthesesameA-SharesfordistributioninmainlandChina.However,theratingsystememployedbyHSdiffersfromthatusedbyHTIandasaresulttheremaybeadifferenceintheHTIandHSratingsforthesameA-sharestocks.海通国际优质100A股（Q100）指数：海通国际Q100指数是一个包括100支由海通证券覆盖的优质中国A股的计量产品。这些股票是通过基于质量的筛选过程，并结合对海通证券A股团队自下而上的研究。海通国际每季对Q100指数成分作出复审。HaitongInternationalQuality100A-share(Q100)Index:HTI’sQ100Indexisaquantproductthatconsistsof100ofthehighest-qualityA-sharesundercoverageatHSinShanghai.Thesestocksarecarefullyselectedthroughaquality-basedscreeningprocessincombinationwithareviewoftheHSA-shareteam’sbottom-upresearch.TheQ100constituentcompaniesarereviewedquarterly.盟浪义利（FIN-ESG）数据通免责声明条款：在使用盟浪义利（FIN-ESG）数据之前，请务必仔细阅读本条款并同意本声明：第一条义利（FIN-ESG）数据系由盟浪可持续数字科技有限责任公司（以下简称“本公司”）基于合法取得的公开信息评估而成，本公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。对公司述的评估结果造成的任何直接或间接损失负责。（）绩表现不作为日后回报的预测。（（））SusallWaveFIN-ESGDataServiceDisclaimer:PleasereadthesetermsandconditionsbelowcarefullyandconfirmyouragreementandacceptancewiththesetermsbeforeusingSusallWaveFIN-ESGDataService.FIN-ESGDataisproducedbySusallWaveDigitalTechnologyCo.,Ltd.(Inshort,SusallWave)’sassessmentbasedonlegalpubliclyaccessibleinformation.SusallWaveshallnotberesponsibleforanyaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformation.Theassessmentresultisforreferenceonly.Itisnotforanyinvestmentadviceforanyindividualorinstitutionandnotforbasisofpurchasing,sellingorholdinganyrelativefinancialproducts.WewillnotbeliableforanydirectorindirectlossofanyindividualorinstitutionasaresultofusingSusallWaFIN-ESGData.SusallWadonotconsiderrecipientsascustomersforreceivingthesedata.Whenusingthedata,recipientsshallmakeyourownindependentjudgmentaccordingtoyourpracticalindividualstatus.Thecontentsofthedatareflectthejudgmentofusonlyonthereleaseday.Wehaverighttoupdateandamendthedataandreleaseotherdatathatcontainsinconsistentcontentsordifferentconclusionswithoutnotification.Unlessexpresslystated,thedata(e.g.,financialperformancedata)representspastperformanceonlyandthepastperformancecannotbeviewedasthepredictionoffuturereturn.ThecopyrightofthisdatabelongstoSusallWa,andreserveallrightsinaccordancewiththelaw.Withoutthepriorwrittenpermissionofourcompany,noneofindividualorinstitutioncanusethesedataforanyprofitablepurpose.Besides,noneofindividualorinstitutioncantakeactionssuchasamendment,replication,translation,compilation,re-editing,adaption,deletion,abbreviation,excerpts,issuance,rent,exhibition,performance,projection,broadcast,informationnetworktransmission,shooting,addingiconsandinstructions.IfanylossofSusallWaoranythird-partyiscausedbythoseactions,usersshallbearthecorrespondingcompensationliability.SusallWaveshallnotberesponsibleforanyloss.Ifanytermisnotcontainedinthisdisclaimerbutwritteninotheragreementsonourwebsite(e.g.UserRegistrationProtocolofSusallWaWebsite,UserService(includingauthentication)AgreementofSusallWaveWebsite,PrivacyPolicyofSusallwaveWebsite),itshouldbeexecutedaccordingtootheragreements.Ifthereisanydifferencebetweenthisdisclaimandotheragreements,thisdisclaimershallbeapplied.重要免责声明：非印度证券的研究报告：本报告由海通国际证券集团有限公司（“HTISGL”）的全资附属公司海通国际研究有限公司（“HTIRL”）（571章）4（）HTISGLHaitongInternational(Japan)K.K.（“HTIJKK）HTIJKK管为投资顾问。印度证券的研究报告：SecuritiesandExchangeBoardofIndia（“SEBI”）HaitongSecuritiesIndiaPrivateLimited（“HTSIPL）BSELimited（“BSE”）NationalStockExchangeofIndiaLimited（“NSE）（）HTSIPL20161222并成为海通国际证券集团有限公司（“HTISG）所有研究报告均以海通国际为名作为全球品牌，经许可由海通国际证券股份有限公司及/或海通国际证券集团的其他成员在其司法管辖区发布。HTIRL、HTISCL或任何其他属于海通国际证券集团有限公司（“HTISG）/HTISG任。HTISGHTISG的销售员、交易员和其他专业人士均可向HTISGHTISG一致的投资决策。但HTIRL请访问海通国际网站www.equities.htisec.com，查阅更多有关海通国际为预防和避免利益冲突设立的组织和行政安排的内容信息。非美国分析师披露信息：本项研究首页上列明的海通国际分析师并未在FINRA进行注册或者取得相应的资格，并且不受美国FINRA有关与本项研究目标公司进行沟通、公开露面和自营证券交易的第2241条规则之限制。IMPORTANTDISCLAIMERForresearchreportsonnon-Indiansecurities:TheresearchreportisissuedbyHaitongInternationalResearchLimited(“HTIRL”),awhollyownedsubsidiaryofHaitongInternationalSecuritiesGroupLimited(“HTISGL”)andalicensedcorporationtocarryonType4regulatedactivity(advisingonsecurities)forthepurposeoftheSecuritiesandFuturesOrdinance(Cap.571)ofHongKong,withtheassistanceofHaitongInternational(Japan)K.K.(“HTIJKK”),awhollyownedsubsidiaryofHTISGLandwhichisregulatedasanInvestmentAdviserbytheKantoFinanceBureauofJapan.ForresearchreportsonIndiansecurities:TheresearchreportisissuedbyHaitongSecuritiesIndiaPrivateLimited(“HSIPL”),anIndiancompanyandaSecuritiesandExchangeBoardofIndia(“SEBI”)registeredStockBroker,MerchantBankerandResearchAnalystthat,interalia,producesanddistributesresearchreportscoveringlistedentitiesontheBSELimited(“BSE”)andtheNationalStockExchangeofIndiaLimited(“NSE”)(collectivelyreferredtoas“IndianExchanges”).HSIPLwasacquiredandbecamepartoftheHaitongInternationalSecuritiesGroupofCompanies(“HTISG”)on22December2016.AlltheresearchreportsaregloballybrandedunderthenameHaitongInternationalandapprovedfordistributionbyHaitongInternationalSecuritiesCompanyLimited(“HTISCL”)and/oranyothermemberswithinHTISGintheirrespectivejurisdictions.Theinformationandopinionscontainedinthisresearchreporthavebeencompiledorarrivedatfromsourcesbelievedtobereliableandingoodfaithbutnorepresentationorwarranty,expressorimplied,ismadebyHTIRL,HTISCL,HSIPL,HTIJKKoranyothermemberswithinHTISGfromwhichthisresearchreportmaybereceived,astotheiraccuracy,completenessorcorrectness.Allopinionsexpressedhereinareasofthedateofthisresearchreportandaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.Thisresearchreportisforinformationpurposeonly.Descriptionsofanycompaniesortheirsecuritiesmentionedhereinarenotintendedtobecompleteandthisresearchreportisnot,andshouldnotbeconstruedexpresslyorimpliedlyas,anoffertobuyorsellsecurities.Thesecuritiesreferredtointhisresearchreportmaynotbeeligibleforpurchaseorsaleinsomejurisdictions.Ifaninvestmentproductisdenominatedinacurrencyotherthananinvestor'shomecurrency,achangeinexchangeratesmayadverselyaffecttheinvestment.Pastperformanceisnotnecessarilyindicativeoffutureresults.Certaintransactions,includingthoseinvolvingderivatives,giverisetosubstantialriskandarenotsuitableforallinvestors.Youshouldalsobearinmindthatrecommendationsinthisresearchreportarenottailor-madeforyou.Theanalysthasnottakenintoaccountyouruniquefinancialcircumstances,suchasyourfinancialsituationandriskappetite.Youmust,therefore,analyzeandshould,whereapplicable,consultyourownlegal,tax,accounting,financialandotherprofessionaladviserstoevaluatewhethertherecommendationssuitsyoubeforeinvestment.NeitherHTISGnoranyofitsdirectors,employeesoragentsacceptsanyliabilitywhatsoeverforanydirectorconsequentiallossarisingfromanyuseofthematerialscontainedinthisresearchreport.HTISGandouraffiliates,officers,directors,andemployees,excludingtheanalystsresponsibleforthecontentofthisdocument,willfromtimetotimehavelongorshortpositionsin,actasprincipalin,andbuyorsell,thesecuritiesorderivatives,ifany,referredtointhisresearchreport.Sales,traders,andotherprofessionalsofHTISGmayprovideoralorwrittenmarketcommentaryortradingstrategiestotherelevantclientsandthecompanieswithinHTISGthatreflectopinionsthatarecontrarytotheopinionsexpressedinthisresearchreport.HTISGmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreport.HTIisundernoobligationtoensurethatsuchothertradingdecisions,ideasorrecommendationsarebroughttotheattentionofanyrecipientofthisresearchreport.PleaserefertoHTI’swebsiteforfurtherinformationonHTI’sorganizationalandadministrativearrangementssetupforthepreventionandavoidanceofconflictsofinterestwithrespecttoResearch.NonU.S.AnalystDisclosure:TheHTIanalyst(s)listedonthecoverofthisResearchis(are)notregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwithFINRAandarenotsubjecttoU.S.FINRARule2241restrictionsoncommunicationswithcompaniesthatarethesubjectoftheResearch;publicappearances;andtradingsecuritiesbyaresearchanalyst.分发和地区通知：除非下文另有规定，否则任何希望讨论本报告或者就本项研究中讨论的任何证券进行任何交易的收件人均应联系其所在国家或地区的海通国际销售人员。香港投资者的通知事项：海通国际证券股份有限公司(“HTISCL”)负责分发该研究报告，HTISCL是在香港有权实施第1类受规管活动（从事证券交易）的持牌公司。该研究报告并不构成《证券及期货条例》（香港法例第571章）（以下简称“SFO”）所界定的要约邀请，证券要约或公众要约。本研究报告仅提供给SFO所界定的“专业投资者”。本研究报告未经过证券及期货事务监察委员会的审查。您不应仅根据本研究报告中所载的信息做出投资决定。本研究报告的收件人就研究报告中产生或与之相关的任何事宜请联系HTISCL销售人员。美国投资者的通知事项：HTIRLHSIPLHTIJKK编写。HTIRLHSIPLHTIJKKHTISG1934年“美国证券交易法”15a6（“MajorU.S.InstitutionalInvestor）资者」（”US.InstitutionalInvestors）HaitongInternationalSecurities(USA)Inc.（“HTIUSA”）HTIUSA。HTIUSA340MadisonAvenue,12thFloor,NewYork,NY10173，电话（212）351-6050。HTIUSA是在美国于US.SecuritiesandExchangeCommission（“SEC”）FinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthority,Inc.（“FINRA”）HTIUSAHSIPLHTIRL或HTIJKKHSIPLHTIRLHTIJKKFINRAFINRA2241（包括ADR）HaitongInternationalSecurities(USA)Inc.340MadisonAvenue,12thFloorNewYork,NY10173联系人电话：(212)3516050DISTRIBUTIONANDREGIONALNOTICESExceptasotherwiseindicatedbelow,anyRecipientwishingtodiscussthisresearchreportoreffectanytransactioninanysecuritydiscussedinHTI’sresearchshouldcontacttheHaitongInternationalsalespersonintheirowncountryorregion.NoticetoHongKonginvestors:TheresearchreportisdistributedbyHaitongInternationalSecuritiesCompanyLimited(“HTISCL”),whichisalicensedcorporationtocarryonType1regulatedactivity(dealinginsecurities)inHongKong.ThisresearchreportdoesnotconstituteasolicitationoranofferofsecuritiesoraninvitationtothepublicwithinthemeaningoftheSFO.Thisresearchreportisonlytobecirculatedto"ProfessionalInvestors"asdefinedintheSFO.ThisresearchreporthasnotbeenreviewedbytheSecuritiesandFuturesCommission.Youshouldnotmakeinvestmentdecisionssolelyonthebasisoftheinformationcontainedinthisresearchreport.RecipientsofthisresearchreportaretocontactHTISCLsalespersonsinrespectofanymattersarisingfrom,orinconnectionwith,theresearchreport.NoticetoU.S.investors:Asdescribedabove,thisresearchreportwaspreparedbyHTIRL,HSIPLorHTIJKK.NeitherHTIRL,HSIPL,HTIJKK,noranyofthenonU.S.HTISGaffiliatesisregisteredintheUnitedStatesand,therefore,isnotsubjecttoU.S.rulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalysts.Thisresearchreportisprovidedfordistributionto“majorU.S.institutionalinvestors”and“U.S.institutionalinvestors”inrelianceontheexemptionfromregistrationprovidedbyRule15a-6oftheU.S.SecuritiesExchangeActof1934,asamended.Whendistributingresearchreportsto“U.S.institutionalinvestors,”HTIUSAwillaccepttheresponsibilitiesforthecontentofthereports.AnyU.S.recipientofthisresearchreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesorrelatedfinancialinstrumentsbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisresearchreportshoulddosoonlythroughHaitongInternationalSecurities(USA)Inc.(“HTIUSA”),locatedat340MadisonAvenue,12thFloor,NewYork,NY10173,USA;telephone(212)3516050.HTIUSAisabroker-dealerregisteredintheU.S.withtheU.S.SecuritiesandExchangeCommission(the“SEC”)andamemberoftheFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthority,Inc.(“FINRA”).HTIUSAisnotresponsibleforthepreparationofthisresearchreportnorfortheanalysiscontainedtherein.UndernocircumstancesshouldanyU.S.recipientofthisresearchreportcontacttheanalystdirectlyoreffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesorrelatedfinancialinstrumentsdirectlythroughHSIPL,HTIRLorHTIJKK.TheHSIPL,HTIRLorHTIJKKanalyst(s)whosenameappearsinthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwithFINRAand,therefore,maynotbesubjecttoFINRARule2241restrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.Investinginanynon-U.S.securitiesorrelatedfinancialinstruments(includingADRs)discussedinthisresearchreportmaypresentcertainrisks.Thesecuritiesofnon-U.S.issuersmaynotberegisteredwith,orbesubjecttoU.S.regulations.Informationonsuchnon-U.S.securitiesorrelatedfinancialinstrumentsmaybelimited.ForeigncompaniesmaynotbesubjecttoauditandreportingstandardsandregulatoryrequirementscomparabletothoseineffectwithintheU.S.ThevalueofanyinvestmentorincomefromanysecuritiesorrelatedfinancialinstrumentsdiscussedinthisresearchreportdenominatedinacurrencyotherthanU.S.dollarsissubjecttoexchangeratefluctuationsthatmayhaveapositiveoradverseeffectonthevalueoforincomefromsuchsecuritiesorrelatedfinancialinstruments.AllinquiriesbyU.S.recipientsshouldbedirectedto:HaitongInternationalSecurities(USA)Inc.340MadisonAvenue,12thFloorNewYork,NY10173Attn:SalesDeskat(212)3516050中华人民共和国的通知事项：在中华人民共和国（下称“中国”）“在中国从事生产、经营活动”加拿大投资者的通知事项：HaitongInternationalSecurities(USA)Inc.（“HTIUSA”）NationalInstrument31103RegistrationRequirements,ExemptionsandOngoingRegistrantObligations（“NI31-103）的规定得到「国际交易商豁免」（“InternationalDealerExemption”）NationalInstrument45-106ProspectusExemptions11节或者Securities(Ontario)7331（“AccreditedInvestor）NationalInstrument31-10311节所规定的「许可投资者」（“PermittedInvestor）。新加坡投资者的通知事项：HaitongInternationalSecurities(SingaporePteLtd（“HTISSPL”）[201311400G于新加坡提供。HTISSPL（110章）（“FAA”）（a）（b）（289章）第4A题，本研究报告的收件人应通过以下信息与HTISSPLHaitongInternationalSecurities(Singapore)Pte.Ltd50RafflesPlace,#33-03SingaporeLandTower,Singapore048623电话:(65)65361920日本投资者的通知事项：（（“FIEL”））61（1）条，第17-11（1）条的执行及相关条款）。英国及欧盟投资者的通知事项：本报告由从事投资顾问的HaitongInternationalSecuritiesCompanyLimited所发布，本报告只面向有投资相关经验的专业客户发布。任何投资或与本报告相关的投资行为只面对此类专业客户。没有投资经验或相关投资经验的客户不得依赖本报告。HaitongInternationalSecu