澳大利亚热泵市场-英

Heat

pumps

–

Emergingtrends

in

the

AustralianmarketSEPTEMBER

2023Heatpumps

–EmergingtrendsintheAustralian

marketThispublicationhasbeenfunded

bythe

DepartmentofClimateChange,Energy,the

EnvironmentandWater.PreparedbyPeterBrodribb,MichaelMcCann,

Jelena

Franjićand

GraemeDewerson.ExpertGroupSuite12,

2-8StAndrewsStreet,Brighton,

Victoria3186Telephone+61

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Australia2023OwnershipofintellectualpropertyrightsUnlessotherwisenoted,

copyright(andanyotherintellectual

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inthispublicationisownedbytheCommonwealthof

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licenceandanyuseof

thisdocumentshould

beemailed

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copyright@.au.CataloguingdataThispublication(andany

materialsourcedfromit)should

beattributed

as:Heat

pumps

–

EmergingtrendsintheAustralianmarket,PeterBrodribb,MichaelMcCann,Jelena

Franjicand

GraemeDewerson,reportpreparedfortheDepartmentof

Climate

Change,Energy,the

EnvironmentandWater,Canberra.CCBY4.0.Thispublicationisavailableat

.au/environment/protection/ozone/publications.Departmentof

Climate

Change,Energy,the

EnvironmentandWaterGPOBox

3090

CanberraACT2601Telephone1800900090Web.auDisclaimerThe

viewsandopinionsexpressed

in

thispublicationdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviews

of

the

AustralianGovernment

orthe

portfolioministersfortheDepartmentofClimate

Change,Energy,the

EnvironmentandWater.The

AustralianGovernmentactingthroughthe

DepartmentofClimate

Change,Energy,the

EnvironmentandWaterhasexercisedduecare

and

skillinpreparingandcompilingtheinformationanddatainthispublication.Notwithstanding,the

Departmentof

Climate

Change,Energy,the

Environmentand

Water,itsemployeesandadvisersdisclaimallliability,includingliabilityfornegligenceandforanyloss,damage,

injury,expenseorcostincurredbyanypersonasaresultofaccessing,

usingorrelyingonanyofthe

informationordatainthispublicationto

the

maximumextentpermittedby

law.AcknowledgementofCountryWeacknowledge

the

TraditionalCustodiansofAustralia

and

theircontinuingconnectionto

land

and

sea,waters,environment

andcommunity.Wepay

ourrespectsto

the

TraditionalCustodiansof

thelands

weliveand

work

on,theirculture,andtheirElders

pastandpresent.DepartmentofClimateChange,Energy,theEnvironmentandWater2Heatpumps

–EmergingtrendsintheAustralian

marketCONTENTS12EXECUTIVESUMMARY..................................................................................................................5INTRODUCTION

..........................................................................................................................72.1

DESCRIPTIONOFTECHNOLOGY..............................................................................................................

72.2

INTERNATIONALOVERVIEW,

THE

KEYDRIVERS,

ANDEMERGINGTECHNOLOGIES.............................................

72.3

TRENDSANDOBSERVATIONSBYREFRIGERANTTYPE................................................................................

102.4

OVERVIEWOFGOVERNMENTINITIATIVESDRIVINGHEATPUMPINSTALLATIONS

...........................................

113OVERVIEWOFHEATPUMPTECHNOLOGIES

......................................................................................

183.1

HEATPUMPCLOTHESDRYERS

.............................................................................................................

183.2

DOMESTIC

HOT

WATER

HEATPUMPS

...................................................................................................

213.3

SWIMMINGPOOLHEATPUMPS...........................................................................................................

263.4

REVERSECYCLEAIRCONDITIONING

......................................................................................................

303.5

COMMERCIALHEATPUMPS

................................................................................................................

363.6

OTHERHEATPUMPTECHNOLOGIES......................................................................................................

424THERISKSOFEMERGINGHEATPUMPS

...........................................................................................

444.1

POTENTIALIMPACTSONTHE

HFC

PHASEDOWN

....................................................................................

444.2

POTENTIALIMPACTONEND-OF-LIFEEMISSIONS.....................................................................................

474.3

PREMATUREPRODUCTFAILUREANDWAVEOFWARRANTIES

....................................................................

48BIBLIOGRAPHY...........................................................................................................................

51APPENDIXA

...............................................................................................................................

56PART1

–

TAXONOMYOFTECHNOLOGY

.........................................................................................................

56PART2

–

TECHNICALCHARACTERISTICSBYPRODUCTCATEGORY

........................................................................

58TABLESTable1:Summaryof

technologyopportunitiesfor

newheatpumpequipmentbyGWPthreshold................................................................................................................................................................................................11Table2:Energyefficiency

andrenewableenergyschemesthatareprovidingtangible

incentivesthataredrivingheatpumpactivities......................................................................................................................14Table3:Installationsofhotwaterheatpumps

that

receivedsmall-scaletechnology

certificatesundertheRenewableEnergyTarget

schemein2022.....................................................................................17Table4:Risks

ofdirectemissionsfrom

end-of-life

heatpumps.................................................................48Table5:Air

conditioningandheatpumptaxonomyoftechnology...........................................................57FIGURESFigure1:Salesandprojectionsfordomesticheatpumpclothesdryersfrom

2015to2036.........19Figure2:New

salesmixprojectionbyunitsfordomesticheatpumpclothesdryersfrom

2022to2036......................................................................................................................................................................................20Figure3:Refrigerantbankofheatpumpclothesdryersfrom

2022to2036intonnes....................21Figure4:SalesProjectionbyunitsoftheAustralianhotwater

marketandhotwaterheatpumpsfrom2021to2036..........................................................................................................................................................23DepartmentofClimateChange,Energy,theEnvironmentandWater3Heatpumps

–EmergingtrendsintheAustralian

marketFigure5:New

salesmixprojectionbyunitsfordomestichotwater

heatpumps

from

2022to2036......................................................................................................................................................................................25Figure6:Refrigerantbankofhotwater

heatpumps

from

2022to

2036

intonnes...........................25Figure7:SalesProjectionbyunitsof

swimmingpoolheatpumpsfrom

2021to

2036....................28Figure8:New

salesmixprojectionbyunitsforswimming

poolheatpumpsfrom

2022to2036................................................................................................................................................................................................29Figure9:Refrigerantbankofswimmingpool

heat

pumpsfrom

2022to2036intonnes...............29Figure10:Salesofsingle

split

systemsfrom

2012to2022,and

salesprojectionto2036..............32Figure11:Newsalesmixprojectionbyunitsforsmallair

conditioning(singlesplit:

non-ducted)heatpumpsfrom

2022to

2036

................................................................................................................................33Figure12:Newsalesmixprojectionbyunitsformediumair

conditioning(splitsystem:ducted)heatpumpsfrom

2022to

2036

................................................................................................................................34Figure13:Refrigerantbankofsmallair

conditionernon-ductedsplitsystemsfrom

2022to2036intonnes

.............................................................................................................................................................................35Figure14:Refrigerantbankofmediumair

conditionerfrom2022to2036in

tonnes.....................36Figure

15:Newsalesmixprojectionbyunitsforcommercialheatpumpsfrom2022

to2036...................................................................................................................................................................

41Figure16:Refrigerantbankofcommercialheatpumpsfrom

2022to

2036

intonnes....................42Figure17:HFCPhasedownstepsandrefrigerantusagefrom

2022to2036inMtCO

e................462DepartmentofClimateChange,Energy,theEnvironmentandWater4Heatpumps

–EmergingtrendsintheAustralian

market1

ExecutivesummaryInrecentyears

heatpumpshavebeenrecognisedas

anintegraltechnology

intheglobal

efforttoimproveenergyefficiencyaspartofdecarbonisation.GovernmentsofthelargestandmostadvancedeconomiesinEurope,the

US,Japan,ChinaandAustraliaare

deployingpoliciesandincentiveswhicharedriving

dramaticgrowth

inthetechnologicaladvancement,manufacture,andsalesof

heatpumptechnologiesacrossarange

ofapplications.InAustralia,Governmentsarecontinuingtorollout

programsandincentivesaimedatacceleratingenergyefficiencyimprovements.

Consequently,heatpumpsareplayinganincreasinglylargerroleintheseeffortsacrossbothcommercialandresidential

sectorsinapplicationsincludingspaceheatingandcooling,hotwaterheating,clothesdryersand

swimmingpool

heating.Despitethewelldocumentedadvantagesof

thetechnologyandresultingpositivecontributionstowardsdecarbonisationonagloballevel,heatpumpsdeployedaroundtheworldinincreasingnumbersareprimarilychargedwithhydrofluorocarbon(HFC)refrigerantsthathavehighglobalwarmingpotentials(GWP).TheseHFCs

are

subject

toaninternationalagreementtosignificantlyphasedownproductionandbulkimportsundertheKigaliAmendmenttotheMontrealProtocolonSubstancesthatDepletetheOzoneLayer.Under

theagreement,participating

countries,includingAustralia,arerestrictedbyadiminishingquotasystem

whichlimitsbulkimportsofHFCs.AlthoughHFCs

usedinpre-chargedequipmentareaccountedfor

inthecountryofmanufacture,ongoingservicing,andendof

lifemanagementofthis

growing

technologyrequiresconsideration.Therefore,

thisstudywas

designedto

assessthedemandsonfuturerefrigerantusageto2036withanexpected

increaseinheatpumpdeployment.Asummaryof

keymessagesfrom

thereportareasfollows:•••Australiais

experiencingasurgeof

heatpump

salesthatis

expectedto

continueatleastintothemid-2030sasheatpumpscontinuetoreplacegas

appliancesinbothexistingandnewbuildings.TheadditionalHFCusage

fromthe

surgeinheatpumpsisestimatedtoadd

upto0.071

milliontonnesof

carbondioxideequivalent(MtCO

e),equatingto

around4.4%of2theMontrealProtocollimitof1.622MtCO

e

in2036.2Thelargestemissionrisk

fromthis

equipment–hermeticallysealedheatpumpsandsplit

systemairconditioners

–willbeatendoflife.Thereis

nonationallegislativeapproachtothe

end-of-lifedisposalandrecyclingof

heatpumps,air

conditioningequipmentandrefrigerationequipment.•Todatethere

havebeenfewrestrictionsontheGWPofrefrigerantsin

heatpumpequipmenthoweverthisis

changingwithinternationalandAustralianregulations

andincentivesexpectedto

influence

manufacturers’choice

ofrefrigerantinproductssold

inAustralia,particularly:ooFrom1July2024theAustralianGovernmentwillbantheimportandmanufactureof

smallairconditionersusingrefrigerantwithaGWPover

750.Theamendmentstothe

EuropeanRegulationNo517/2014(the

F-gasregulations).DepartmentofClimateChange,Energy,theEnvironmentandWater5Heatpumps

–EmergingtrendsintheAustralian

marketoThe

VictorianEnergyUpgradesprogram

proposedthathotwaterheatpumpswithrefrigerantswith

aGWPgreaterthan700will

notbeeligibleundertheVictorianEnergyUpgradesprogram

after1July2024(DEWLP2022).DepartmentofClimateChange,Energy,theEnvironmentandWater6Heatpumps

–EmergingtrendsintheAustralian

market2

Introduction2.1

Descriptionof

technologyHeatpumpsusevapourcompressionheattransfertechnologysimilartothatfoundinarefrigerator.Heatpumpsuseelectricityandrefrigeranttoextractheatfromasource,suchas

thesurroundingair,wateror

groundandtransferheat

froma

coolspacetoawarm

space,

makingthecoolspace

coolerand

thewarm

spacewarmer.

Asmostofthe

heatis

transferredratherthangenerated,heatpumpsarefarmoreefficientthanconventionalheating

technologiessuchasboilers,gasheatersorelectric

resistanceheaters,andcanbelessexpensiveto

run.The

mostcommontypeofheatpumpis

theair-to-airheatpumpcommonlyreferredtoas

areverse

cycleair

conditionerorair

sourceheatpump,whichtransfersheat

between

theoutsideairandyour

houseorabuilding.Air-to-waterheatpumpsareanemergingapplication,whenconnectedtoawatertank,thistypeofheatpumpcantransferheatfrom

theoutsideairtoawaterstoragetankwhichsupplieshotwaterforresidentialandcommercialsettings.Examplesofequipmentthatusearefrigerationcyclethat

are

notheatpumps

includedomesticandcommercialrefrigerators;mobileair

conditioners

(exceptin

electricvehicles

whichmayhaveaheatpump);andcommercial

chillers,(exceptfor

multi-function

chillersthat

haveaheatingfunction).InAustraliarecentsales

datashowsthathotwaterheatpumpsarereplacinggasandelectricresistivehotwaterservices,air-to-airheatpumpsarereplacinggas

ducted

heatersandroomspaceheaters,andlargermulti-functionchillerscapableofbothheating

and

coolinghavepotentialtoreplacegasboilersin

commercialapplications.2.2

International

overview,

the

key

drivers,

and

emergingtechnologiesGlobalinitiativestoreduce

greenhouse

gas

(GHG)emissions,byreplacinggasheatingandinefficientelectricaltechnologieswith

heatpumps,

areleadingtoarapiduptakeofavarietyofheatpumptechnologiesaroundtheworld.2.2.1

EuropeHeatpumpsarewidely

seenasoneofthe

most

importanttechnologiesforenergysecurityanddecarbonisingheatinginEurope.SinceRussia’sinvasionofUkraine,the

resultingenergycrisisandrelatedpolicyintervention,manyEuropeanstatesare

continuingtoprioritisearapidtransitionfrom

fossil

fuelstorenewableenergyandelectrification

(RosenowandGibb2023).Insmallandmediumscaleheating

applicationsthatshift

isdriving

demandfor

heatpumps.Arecord3

million

heatpumpsweresoldacrossEuropein2022,a34%increaseon2021andasignificantincreaseonthepreviousaverageannual

growthofapproximately

10%perannumthroughout

mostofthelastdecade(Rosenowand

Gibb2023).TheEuropeanCommissionhasrecentlyopened

its

callforevidenceonits

proposedheatpumpactionplantoacceleratedeploymentofthetechnologyintheEuropeanUnion(EU)withtheDepartmentofClimateChange,Energy,theEnvironmentandWater7Heatpumps

–EmergingtrendsintheAustralian

marketobjectiveof

installingatleast10

million

additionalheatpumpsby2027(Cooling

Post2023d)inlinewithitsREPowerEUplan.TheEuropeanCommissionputforwardtheREPowerEUplan

inMay2022.

Theplanbuildsontheimplementationofthe‘Fitfor55’proposals,whichsupporttheambitiousEUgoalofachievingareductionofatleast55%netgreenhousegasemissionsby2030andclimateneutralityby2050,inline

withtheEuropeanGreen

Deal.Amongthemeasuressupportedbytheplanaredecarbonisingindustry,acceleratingthe

deploymentofrenewablesandboostingenergyefficiencythrough

theuptakeof

heatpumps(Councilof

theEU

2023b).Simultaneousto,andatoddswiththeseplans

foracceleratedheatpumproll

out,

inarecentvoteonamendmentstotheEuropeanRegulationNo517/2014(theF-gasregulations)revisionproposals,theEuropean

Parliament’senvironment

committeevotedtofast-trackthephasedownofhydrofluorocarbon(HFC)refrigerantsinanumberofapplications,includingheatpumps.TherevisedF-gas

regulations,if

implemented,wouldmeanabanonuseofHFCs

from

as

earlyas2026for

someheatpump

types.ThevotepresentsachallengetoEU’sdecarbonisationandenergysecurityambitions,aswellas

theREPowerEUplan,asHFC

refrigerantsareinstrumentaltothefunctioningofheatpumpsandtheproposed

regulationswouldaffectalmost30thousanddifferentmodelsofequipmentcurrentlypresentin

theEuropeanmarket

(APPLia2023).Atthetimeofwriting,negotiationsareongoingbetweenthe

EU

Counciland

EUCommission,howeverfollowingindustryconsultationtherevisedF-GasRegulationincludessome

easing

ofbans

thatseemmoreachievableforindustry.Inaddition,atransitionfrom

HFCs

tolow

globalwarmingpotential(GWP)alternatives,suchashydrocarbons(HC-290)andHFOs,

involvesconsiderationoftrainingof

installers,safety,energyefficiencyand

productaffordability

(CoolingPost2023a,CoolingPost2023b,CoolingPost2023c).Monobloctechnologyis

oneofthe

more

significant

air-to-waterheatpumptechnologies

that

ismakinginroadsintothecolderUKandEuropean

markets.Monoblocrefersto

a‘singleblock’system,whereall

ofthe

components,apartfrom

thehotwater

cylinder,arefittedintoa

heatpumpunitplacedoutside

thebuilding

(HVP2020).

These

self-containedsystemsdonotrequirerefrigerantpipingandcan

beeasily

mountedtotheexteriorof

abuilding

withthehotwaterstorage

cylinderlocatedinsidethe

building

andconnectedbyonlythewater

piping

(Electronics2022).The

monoblocdesignofferssignificantopportunitiesforrefrigerantswithGWPoflessthan

150,suchas

purepropane,HC-290(GWPof3),andHFC/HFOblendR454C(GWPof

148).Althoughthisisagoodtechnology

optionforEuropeandcolderclimatesthatpredominantlyrequireheating,

itdoesn’tnecessarilyprovideagreatopportunityforwarmer

climatessuchas

Australiawherecoolingisthedominantcomfortrequirement,andhydronicheatingsystemsrepresentaverysmallportionofthe

market.From2019to2023,theEU

fundedthe

TRI-HPproject(tri-generationsystems

–heating,coolingandelectricity-basedon

heatpumpswithnaturalrefrigerantsandmultiplerenewableenergysources)aimedatofferingtailoredsolutionsforEuropeanmulti-familybuildingsusingtrigenerationtechnology.

Thisprogram

has

a

goalof

reducingcostsbyupto15%incomparisonwiththeexistinghydronicheatpumptechnologiesanddecreasinggreenhousegasemissionsfromgasboilersandairchillersby75%.Tri-generationsystemsare

typicallybasedonnaturalDepartmentofClimateChange,Energy,theEnvironmentandWater8Heatpumps

–EmergingtrendsintheAustralian

marketrefrigerantheatpumps

coupledwithrenewable

electricity

generators(e.g.,solarphotovoltaic),usingcoldstorage(suchas

aniceslurry),heatandelectricitystoragestoprovideheating,coolingand

electricity.

Theytypicallyutilisethreeenergysources,solar,

groundsourceandambientair,and

includeadvancedcontrols,managing

electricity,

heatandcooling

inawaythatoptimisestheperformanceofthe

system

(European

Commission2019).Althoughanumberof

unique

solutionsforvariousapplicationshavebeendevelopedinEurope,tri-generation

systemsaremostsuitableforbespokeprojectsusinghydronicheating,withlimitedapplicationpotentialinAustralia.

ThisEU

effortis

alreadygeneratingnovelsolutionsanddrivinginnovationin

developmentanddemonstrationoftri-generationapplications.Awatchingbriefshouldbemaintainedlooking

fortechnologiessuitedto

Australianapplicationsincommercial,

industrial,healthandhotelsectors.2.2.2

UnitedStatesofAmericaThe

UnitedStatesofAmerica(US)

isalsotaking

proactivemeasuresto

encourageafastershifttoheatpumptechnology.In

2021the

US

Department

ofEnergylaunchedtheresidential

ColdClimateHeatPumpTechnology

Challengetoacceleratethedeploymentofcoldclimate

heatpumptechnologies

(U.S.DepartmentofEnergy2021).ManufacturersincludingRheem,

Carrier,Daikin,JohnsonControls,

Lennox

andMitsubishiElectricacceptedthe

challengeaimedatreducingthecarbonfootprintofcoldclimateheatingsolutionsbyimprovingefficiencyandaffordability(CoolingPost2023f).The

UnitedStatesDepartmentofDefenserecently

announced

$250million,fundedthroughtheInflationReductionAct,toincreasedomesticproductionof

heatpumps

usingtheDefenseProductionAct(DPA)authoritiesinvokedbyPresidentBidenin2022.TheDPAdeterminationsarepartoftheUS

plantolowerenergycosts,strengthennational

security,andachieveenergyindependencebyreducingdemandfornaturalresources

(U.S.Departmentof

Energy2023).The2022InflationReductionActis

thelargest

step

thatcongresshastakentoaddressclimatechange.Itaims

toreduceAmericans’energy

costs,

create

goodjobsandtransformUS

effortstoaddresstheclimatecrisis.NotonlydoestheInflationReductionActincentiviseindustry,butitalsoprovidesdirect

incentivesforAmericanfamiliesto

decarbonisetheir

homesthroughtheconversionto

cleanerenergy,includingheatpumps

(Barbanell2022).Of

the

US$394billioncommitted,the

InflationReductionActprovidesnearlyUS$9billionfor

home

energyrebateprogramstoelectrifyappliances,

introduce

solarandbatterystorageandretrofitpropertiestomakethemmoreenergyefficient.Qualifying

home

improvementsareeligible

fora

taxcreditofupto30%of

thetotalcost,cappedat

US$1,200annually.Forheatpumps,thecredit

is

capped

atUS$2,000peryear(AEC2023).HeatpumptechnologieslistedaseligibleforrebatesundertheHomeElectrificationProjectQualifiedTechnologiesincludeenergy

starwaterheaters(up

toUSD$1,750),

spaceheating

andcooling(upto

USD$8,000)and

clothesdryers(uptoUSD$840)(U.S.Departmentof

Energyn.d.).2.2.3

ChinaChina

hasbeenworkingto

reduceits

relianceoncoalfordomesticheatingtoimproveindoorandoutdoorairquality,while

movingtowardsheat

pumpsaspartofdecarbonisationplans(China

Daily2022).In2013theChinese

governmentintroducedthe‘AirPollutionPreventionandControlActionPlan’

whichacceleratedtheuseofcentralisedanddistrict

heatingDepartmentofClimateChange,Energy,theEnvironmentandWater9Heatpumps

–EmergingtrendsintheAustralian

marketencouragingaswitchto

cleanerfuels.

Thispolicywasfollowedbythe2017‘CleanWinterHeatingPlan’forNorthernChinaaimedatimproving

urbanairqualityandreducingoverallenergyconsumption,as

wellasreducing

waterand

heatloss

(Universityof

Birmingham

2023).Despitea

slowdown

insalesgrowththereweremoreheatpumps

soldinChinathananyothercountryin2022.Chinaalsohasthe

largestworkforceinthesectorgloballyandoperatesa40%shareoftheworld’sheat

pump

manufacturingcapacity,

makingitthe

world’slargestproducerandexporterofheatpumptechnology,withmostexportsgoing

toEurope.In

NorthernChina,district

heatingdominatesasthemost

commonheatingsolution

incitiesalthoughmanyhouseholdshaveheatpumps

installedfor

spacecooling

andperiodicheating.InSouthernChina,wheretheclimateis

warmerduring

winter,airsourcereversibleunitsarea

widespreadsolutionforspaceheating.Morethan1

millionairsourcedheatpumps

weresoldthroughoutChina

in2022(IEA2022,Monschaueretal.2023).2.3

TrendsandobservationsbyrefrigeranttypeTable1

illustratesthestateoftechnologyreadiness(green,amberandred)forthemainheatpumpequipmentclassestotransitiontolowerGWP

HFCs

oralternativerefrigerants.

Thisframework,

combinedwith

interviewswithtechnicalexpertsfromglobal

equipment

suppliers,formsthebasisforpredictingnewequipmentsalesmixprojectionsto2036,

whichinturninformtheprojectionsof

thefuturecompositionof

the

refrigerantbank.Thesectionsthatfollowprovide

someexamplesto

supportthetechnology

readinessassessmentandalternati