贝莱德集团-2024全球展望（英）

2024

Global

Outlook

Grabbingthewheel:

puttingmoneytowork

BlackRock

Investment

Institute

BlackROCK.

FORPUBLICDISTRIBUTIONINTHEU.S.,CANADA,LATINAMERICA,HONGKONG,SINGAPOREANDAUSTRALIA.

FORINSTITUTIONAL,PROFESSIONAL,QUALIFIEDINVESTORSANDQUALIFIEDCLIENTSINOTHERPERMITTEDCOUNTRIES.

BIIM1223U/M-3266814-1/16

2024outlook

JeanBoivin

Head—BlackRock

InvestmentInstitute

PhilippHildebrand

ViceChairman—

BlackRock

WeiLi

GlobalChiefInvestmentStrategist—BlackRockInvestmentInstitute

AlexBrazier

DeputyHead—BlackRockInvestmentInstitute

ChristopherKaminker

HeadofSustainable

InvestmentResearchandAnalytics–BlackRockInvestmentInstitute

VivekPaul

GlobalHeadofPortfolioResearch—BlackRockInvestmentInstitute

Contents

Summary

Settingthescene

Contextis

everything

Structuralshift

Themes

Managingmacrorisk

Steeringportfoliooutcomes

Harnessingmegaforces

8-10

8

9

10

2Megaforces

Digitaldisruption

3-4Low-carbon

3transition

Afragmenting

4world

11

12

5-7Focus–Global

5diversification

Focus–Real

6assets

13

14-15

7TacticalplaybookViewssummary

Thenewregimeofgreatermacroandmarketvolatilityhasresultedingreater

uncertaintyanddispersionofreturns.Webelieveanactiveapproachto

managinginvestmentportfolioswillcarrygreaterrewardsasaresult.Thisisa

seachangefromrelyingontheone-and-doneassetallocationsthatworkedsowellduringtheGreatModeration,thelongperiodofstablegrowthandinflation.Thatperiodisover.Webelievethisisatimetograbtheinvestingwheel-and

seizetheopportunitiesthenewregimehasonoffer.

Higherratesandgreatervolatilitydefinethe

new

regime

.It’sabigchangefromthedecade

followingtheglobalfinancialcrisis.Ever-

expandingproductioncapacityallowedcentral

bankstostabilizeeconomiesandshoreupgrowth

throughloosemonetarypolicy.Thathelped

suppressmacroandmarketvolatility,andstokedbullmarketsinbothstocksandbonds.Investorscouldrelyonstatic,broadassetclassallocationsforreturns–andgainedlittleadvantagefrom

differentiatedinsightsonthemacrooutlook.

Today,wethinktheflipsideistrue.Production

constraintsabound.Centralbanksfacetougher

trade-offsinfightinginflation–andcan’trespondtofalteringgrowthliketheyusedto.Thisleadsto

awidersetofoutcomes,creatinggreater

uncertaintyforcentralbanksandinvestors.

There’satemptationtointerpretthenewregimebytakingaclassicbusinesscycleviewofthe

currentenvironment,webelieve.Marketsare

swingingbetweenhopesforasoftlandingand

recessionfearsasaresult.Thismissesthepoint:theeconomyisnormalizingfromthepandemicandbeingshapedbystructuraldrivers:shrinkingworkforces,geopoliticalfragmentationandthe

low-carbontransition.Theresultingdisconnectbetweenthecyclicalnarrativeandstructural

realityisfurtherstokingvolatility,webelieve.

SeeminglystrongU.S.growthactuallyreflectsaneconomythat’sstillclimbingoutofadeepholecreatedbythepandemicshock–andtrackingaweakgrowthpath.Whatmattersmost,inour

view,isthattheenvironmentimpliespersistentlyhigherinterestratesandtighterfinancial

conditions.Financialmarketsarestilladjustingtothisnewregime,andthat’swhycontextiskeyformanagingmacrorisk,ourfirsttheme.

Wethinkmacroinsightswillberewardedinthe

newregime.Greatervolatilityanddispersionof

returnscreatespaceforinvestmentexpertisetoshine,asdetailedinoursecondtheme–steeringportfoliooutcomes.Thisinvolvesbeingdynamicwithindexingandalpha-seekingstrategies,whilestayingselectiveandseekingoutmispricings.

Onewaytodriveportfoliooutcomesisby

harnessing

megaforces

–ourthirdtheme.Thesearefivestructuralforcesweseedrivingreturnsnowandintothefuture.Theyhavebecome

importantportfoliobuildingblocks,inourview.

Ourbottomlinefor2024:Investorsneedtotakeamoreactiveapproachtotheirportfolios.Thisis

notatimetoswitchontheinvestingautopilot;

it’satimetotakethecontrols.It’simportanttobedeliberateintakingportfoliorisk,inourview,andweexpecttodeploymoreriskoverthenextyear.

FORPUBLICDISTRIBUTIONINTHEU.S.,CANADA,LATINAMERICA,HONGKONG,SINGAPOREANDAUSTRALIA.

FORINSTITUTIONAL,PROFESSIONAL,QUALIFIEDINVESTORSANDQUALIFIEDCLIENTSINOTHERPERMITTEDCOUNTRIES.

2

BIIM1223U/M-3266814-2/16

Changeinpayrolls(thousands)

Index(Jan.2022=100)

Settingthescene

Contextis

everything

Multipletimesin2023,markethopeshavebeenrevivedthattheU.S.

economycanachieveasoftlanding–orinflationgettingbacktotheFed’s2%targetwithoutarecession.What’sfuelingthosehopes?

Incontrasttoothermajoreconomies,theU.S.grewatarobustclipinthe

thirdquarterof2023.Coreinflationhasfallensharply.Andnearly7million

newjobshavebeencreatedsinceJanuary2022–aphenomenalpaceofjobsgrowthcomparedwithatypicaleconomicexpansion.Seethecharttopright.

Butzoomoutandlookatthebiggerpicture(chartbelowright):Theeconomyhasjustbeenclimbingoutofthepandemichole:

•Some22millionjobswerelostwhenthepandemicstruck.Strongjobgainssincethenlargelyreflecttherecoupingofthoselost.Thelevelofemploymentiswellbelowthetrackwewouldhaveexpectedtobeon

beforethepandemic.

•Lookingat

broadereconomicactivity

,theU.S.economyhasgrownbylessthan1.8%ayear,onaverage,sincethepandemic.That’swellbelowthe

trendwewouldhaveexpectedpre-pandemic–andwellbelowwherethe

consensusandFederalReservehadexpected.That’snothingtobeexcitedabout.

•Thisresultedinevenwithmoremutedgrowth,historicallylowunemploymentandhigherinflation.

Ourbottomline:Somethinghaschanged–andit’sstructuralinnature.We

areonaweakergrowthpathandgotherewithmoreinflation,higherinterestratesandmuchhigherdebtlevels.Theupshotforinvestors?Wethinkthekeyistofocusonhowtheeconomyandmarketsareadjustingtothenewregime.Adoptingthetypicalcyclicalplaybookmaybemisguided.

Strongemploymentgains…

U.S.payrollchangesvs.typicalexpansion,2022-2023and2019-2023

MonthlychangeCumulativechange(right)

Typicalexpansion(right)

0

2023

1000

800

600

400

200

105

104

103

102

101

100

2022

…butstillclimbingoutofadeeppandemichole

Index(Feb.2020=100)

105

100

95

90

85

20192020202120222023

ActualpayrollsTypicalexpansion

Source:BlackRockInvestmentInstitute,U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics,withdatafromHaverAnalytics,December2023.Notes:ThechartsshowU.S.nonfarmpayrolls.Theorangelinesshowtheactualleveloftotalnonfarmpayrollemploymentindexedtotwodifferentstartdates:intheupperchart,January2022=100andinthelowerchart

February2020=100.TheyellowlinesinbothchartsshowhypotheticalpayrollemploymentasiftheeconomyhadcontinuedtogrowattheaveragerateobservedduringU.S.post-1945expansions.Theblackbarsintheupperchartshowactualmonthlypayrollgains(inthousands)sinceJanuary2022.

FORPUBLICDISTRIBUTIONINTHEU.S.,CANADA,LATINAMERICA,HONGKONG,SINGAPOREANDAUSTRALIA.FORINSTITUTIONAL,PROFESSIONAL,QUALIFIEDINVESTORSANDQUALIFIEDCLIENTSINOTHERPERMITTEDCOUNTRIES.3

BIIM1223U/M-3266814-3/16

Settingthescene

Structuralshift

Marketshavebeenflip-flopping

betweenhopesforasofteconomiclandingandfearsofyethigherratesthatultimatelyresultinrecession.

Thishascreatedvolatility,asthechartshows.

TheU.S.economyhasbeen

navigatingtwolargeshocks,inourview.Thefirstwasthepandemic.

Overthepasttwoyears,mostnewjobscreatedhavebeenduetotherestartofactivityaftershutdowns.

Ashiftinconsumerspendingdroveupinflationbycreatingamismatchbetweenwhatpeoplewantedtobuyandwhattheeconomywassetuptoproduce.

Thatmismatch

isnow

resolving,andinflationhasbeenfallingasaresult.

Astheeffectsofthepandemicshockrecede,theeffectsofthesecond,

morestructuralonearebecoming

clearer:Aworkershortagehas

emerged,asagrowingshareoftheU.S.population

agesintoretirement

.

That’swhyunemploymentisat

historiclows–eventhoughU.S.

growthhasaveragedwellbelowitspre-Covidrate.Seepage3.

Theworkforceisgrowingmore

slowlyinEuropeandChina,too,andit’soneofseverallong-term

productionconstraintswethinkwillpreventmanyeconomiesfrom

growingattheirpre-pandemicpacewithoutsparkingrenewedinflation.

Risingproductioncostsina

fragmentingworldwillalsopushupinflationacrossmajoreconomies

overthelongerterm,inourview.Andthetransitiontoalow-carbon

economyiscreatingpricepressures

astheenergysystemisbeingrewired.

Thismeanscentralbanksfacea

toughtrade-off.Iftheywanttostopinflationresurging,theywillneedtokeeppolicytight.Wethinkpolicy

ratesarepoisedtosettlewellabovepre-pandemicnorms.Ultimately,weseecentralbankslivingwithhigherinflationamidheftygovernment

spendinganddebtloads.

Ourbottomline:Thisisaregimeofslowergrowth,higherinflation,

higherinterestrates–andgreatervolatility.

FORPUBLICDISTRIBUTIONINTHEU.S.,CANADA,LATINAMERICA,HONGKONG,SINGAPOREANDAUSTRALIA.

FORINSTITUTIONAL,PROFESSIONAL,QUALIFIEDINVESTORSANDQUALIFIEDCLIENTSINOTHERPERMITTEDCOUNTRIES.

Yieldswingsonshort-termsurprises

SensitivityofU.S.10-yearyieldtoeconomicsurprises,2003-2023

Sensitivity

0.6

0.4

0.2

0

-0.2

20032008201320182023

Charttakeaway:Datasurprisesaredrivingthesharpest,

sustainedswingsinU.S.10-yearTreasuryyieldsofthepasttwodecades.Webelievethisreflectsgreateruncertaintyfrom

investorsstilltryingtoviewtheeconomythroughthelensofatypicalbusinesscycle.

Source:BlackRockInvestmentInstitute,withdatafromLSEGDatastream,December2023.Notes:ThechartshowshowsensitivetheU.S.10-yearTreasuryyieldistoeconomicsurprises.Thisiscalculatedbyusing

regressionanalysistoestimatetherelationshipbetweenU.S.10-yearTreasuryyieldsandtheCitiEconomicsSurpriseIndexoverarollingsix-monthwindow.ThesensitivityishowcloselymovementsoftheU.S.10-yearTreasuryyieldalignwithfluctuationsintheCitiEconomicsSurpriseIndex,relativetohowmuchtheSurpriseindexitselfvaries.Thisanalysisisonlyanestimateoftherelationshipbetweenthe10-yearTreasuryyieldandeconomicsurprises.Pastperformanceisnoguaranteeoffutureresults.

Ifcentralbankswanttostopinflationfromresurging,wethinktheywillneedtokeepholdingbackeconomicactivitywithhigherpolicyrates.

4

BIIM1223U/M-3266814-4/16

Theme1

Managing

macrorisk

Thisisaregimeshift,notabout

whetherarecessionhappens.Soitdoesn’tmakesenseforinvestorstowaitforthemacroenvironmenttoimprove,inourview.Wethink

investorsshouldseektoneutralizemacroexposuresor–iftheyhavehighconviction–bedeliberate

aboutwhichexposurestheytake.

Weseemorescopetooutperformthemarketnowthanintheless

volatileGreatModeration.

Productionconstraintsabound.

Centralbanksfacetoughertrade-

offsinfightinginflationandcan’t

respondtofalteringgrowthlike

before.Wethinkthisleadstoawiderdispersionofviews.

Forexample,analystestimatesof

futureS&P500equityearningsaremoredispersednowthanbeforethepandemic,accordingtoLSEGdata.Seethechart.Theyarehavinga

hardertimereadingtheearnings

outlook.Somacroinsightislikelytobemorerewarded.

Still,wethinkinvestorsneedtobe

alerttorisksaroundmacro

exposuresinthenewregime.

First,marketsareslowlyadjustingtostructurallyhigherinflationand

policyrates,butitisuneven.U.S.10-yearyieldssurgedto16-yearhighsaround5%,forexample.Butmost

DMequityearningsyieldshaven’t

risenmuch.Thisadjustmentmattersmorethanifatechnicalrecession

occurs,inourview,andkeepsuscautiousonbroadexposures.

Second,structurallylowergrowth

andhigherratesposeaproblemforballooningU.S.governmentdebt.Ifborrowingcostsfromhigheryieldsstaynear5%,thegovernmentcouldspendmoreoninterestpayments

thanMedicareinafewyears.This

increasesthelong-runriskofhigherinflationascentralbanksbecome

lessaggressiveoninflation.

Wealsoseeariseintermpremium,orthecompensationinvestors

demandfortheriskofholdinglong-

termbonds.This,plusour

expectationofmoreyieldvolatility,keepsustacticallyneutraland

strategicallyunderweightlong-termU.S.Treasuries.Ourlargeststrategicoverweightisinsteadtoinflation-

linkedbonds.

FORPUBLICDISTRIBUTIONINTHEU.S.,CANADA,LATINAMERICA,HONGKONG,SINGAPOREANDAUSTRALIA.

FORINSTITUTIONAL,PROFESSIONAL,QUALIFIEDINVESTORSANDQUALIFIEDCLIENTSINOTHERPERMITTEDCOUNTRIES.

Adjustingtonewregime

DispersionofU.S.equityanalystearningsestimates,1995-2023

Dispersion

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%199520002005201020152020

DispersionMedian1995-2020Mediansince2020

Charttakeaway:DuringtheGreatModeration,analystviews

ofexpectedcompanyearningsweremuchmoregroupedtogetheroutsideofmajorshocks.Nowtheyaremore

dispersed,showingthatanenvironmentofhigherinflationandinterestratesmakestheoutlookhardertoread.

Source:BlackRockInvestmentInstitute,LSEGDatastream,December2023.Notes:ThechartshowstheaggregatestandarddeviationofanalystearningsestimatesforS&Pcompanies.Thegreenlineshowsthemedianfrom1995toendJanuary2020,theorangelineshowsthemediansinceFebruary2020

Themacrooutlookismoreuncertain.

Exposurestomacroriskcanbepunished

aswellasrewarded,sowethink

investorsshouldbedeliberateaboutwhichexposurestheytake.

5

BIIM1223U/M-3266814-5/16

Theme2

Steeringportfolio

outcomes

Heightenedvolatilityanddispersion

callforanactiveapproachto

managingportfolios,inourview.

Structurallyhigherpolicyrates

shouldeventuallymeanhigher

returnsonallassets.Butnotall

assetvaluationshaveadjusted,wethink.Andstaticexposurestobroadassetclassesareunlikelytodelivertherisk-adjustedreturnstheydid

duringtheGreatModeration’sbullmarketsinbothstocksandbonds.

Weseealpha,orabove-benchmarkreturns,playingabiggerroleinthe

newregime–andbelieveamoredynamicportfolioapproachis

warrantedwhencashoffers

attractivereturns.

Whatifyouwereabletoaccurately

predictU.S.equitysectorreturns

withperfectforesight?Actingonthishypotheticalabilitymorefrequentlywouldhavepaidoffmuchmore

since2020(seetherightbarsinthechart)thaninthefouryearspriorleftbars).Theupshot?Goodinsight,

acteduponinatimelymanner,hasyieldedgreaterrewardsthanbuy-and-holdstrategiessince2020.

Investorscanalsothriveinthenewregimebygettinggranularwith

portfolioallocations.Forexample,returnsonshort-termTreasurieshaveoutpacedthoseonlong-term

bondssincemid-July2023,

accordingtoLSEGdata,asinvestorsstartedtodemandcompensationfortakinglong-terminterestraterisk.

Lastly,dispersionofreturnshas

riseninthenewregime.Thismeanssecurityselectionislikelytobemoreimpactful,inourview.Weseeawidearsenaloftoolsandstrategiesto

helpoutperformstaticportfolios.

Investorscanblendindexestobuildcoreallocations,implementalpha

ideasandhedgerisk.

Ourbottomline:Investment

expertiseislikelytogiveportfoliosanedgeinthenewregime.

Megaforcesandthemacro:theseareinspirations,notconstraints,infinding

alpha.”

RaffaeleSavi

GlobalHeadofBlackRock

Systematic

FORPUBLICDISTRIBUTIONINTHEU.S.,CANADA,LATINAMERICA,HONGKONG,SINGAPOREANDAUSTRALIA.

FORINSTITUTIONAL,PROFESSIONAL,QUALIFIEDINVESTORSANDQUALIFIEDCLIENTSINOTHERPERMITTEDCOUNTRIES.

Moredynamic

HypotheticalimpactofrebalancingonU.S.equityreturns

Hypotheticalreturn

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%

Oldregime(2016-2019)Newregime(2020-2023)

BuyandholdYearlyrebalanceSemi-annualrebalance

Charttakeaway:Takingamoredynamicinvestingapproachininthenewregimewouldhavelikelyoutperformedabuy-and-holdstrategytoamuchgreaterextentthanbeforethepandemic.

Pastperformanceisnotareliableindicatoroffutureperformance.Indexreturnsdonotaccountforfees.Itisnotpossibletoinvestdirectlyinanindex.Source:BlackRockInvestmentInstitute,MSCIwithdatafrom

Bloomberg,December2023.Notes:ThechartshowsmonthlyU.S.equityreturns–basedontheMSCIUSA–intheoldandnewregimeunderthreescenarios:keepingtheholdingsunchanged(buy-and-hold),yearly

rebalancesandsemi-annualrebalances.Therebalancesoptimizetheportfolioforreturns,diversificationandriskwithperfectforesightofequitysectorreturnsintheMSCIUSAindex.Thisanalysisuseshistoricalreturnsandhasbeenconductedwiththebenefitofhindsight.Futurereturnsmayvaryandtheseresultsmaynotbethesameotherassetclasses.Itdoesnotconsiderpotentialtransactioncoststhatmaydetractfromreturns.Italsodoesnotrepresentanactualportfolioandisshownforillustrativepurposesonly.

Webelievethenewregimerewardsan

activeapproachtoportfolios.Wedon’tseeone-and-donestrategiesworkingasinthepast.

6

BIIM1223U/M-3266814-6/16

Theme3

Harnessingmega

forces

Wethink

megaforces

areanotherwaytosteerportfolios–andthinkaboutportfoliobuildingblocksthattranscendtraditionalassetclasses.Theystandoutasdriversof

corporateprofitsontheirown,inourview,andsocouldofferpotential

opportunitiesthatmaybe

uncorrelatedtomacrocycles.

Theseforcesarealreadyreshapingmarkets.Takedigitaldisruption

andartificialintelligence(AI).Thecharttotherightillustratesthe

outperformanceofU.S.techrelativetothebroadermarketthisyear.Wethinkthisreflectshowquickly

marketsembracesuchfundamentalshiftsinthemarketoutlook.

WethinkthewinnersandloserscanbroadentheAItechstack.When

incorporatingthismegaforceinto

ourtacticalviews,itcanpushupourstanceonDMequitiescloserto

neutralevenifthemacrobackdropisn’trosy.Seepages8and14.

That’sjustoneexampleofwhywethinkharnessingmegaforceswillenableinvestorstooutperform

simple,staticallocations.

Thefar-reachingconsequencesofmegaforcescreatenewinvestmentopportunities–andmarketscanbeslowtopricethemin.

Capitalpressuresonbanksare

openingapath

forprivatecreditandnon-bankstofillthelendingvoid–partofthefutureoffinance.Privatecreditcanbeanilliquidassetclassnotsuitableforallinvestors.

Agingpopulationsinmajor

economiesarepoisedtolimithow

muchcountriescanproduceand

grow–dependingonhowtheyadaptindemographicdivergence.

Climateresilienceisemergingasanewinvestmentthemewithinthe

low-carbontransition,inourview.Asclimatedamagesmount,weareseeingincreaseddemandfor

solutionsthathelpeconomies

preparefor,adapttoandwithstandclimatehazards,andrebuildafterdamages.Seepage9.

Weseegeopoliticalfragmentationandeconomiccompetitiondriving

asurgeofinvestmentinstrategicsectorsliketech,energyand

defense.Seepage10.

FORPUBLICDISTRIBUTIONINTHEU.S.,CANADA,LATINAMERICA,HONGKONG,SINGAPOREANDAUSTRALIA.

FORINSTITUTIONAL,PROFESSIONAL,QUALIFIEDINVESTORSANDQUALIFIEDCLIENTSINOTHERPERMITTEDCOUNTRIES.

Megaforceatwork

S&Ptechsectorvs.S&P500performance,2023year-to-date

Totalreturn

60%50%40%30%20%10%0%

-10%

Jan23Apr23Jul23Oct23

S&P500TechnologyS&P500

Charttakeaway:InvestorenthusiasmforAIanddigitaltechhasoffsetthedragofrisingyields.ThathaspushedU.S.techstockstoeasilyoutshinethebroadermarketin2023.

Pastperformanceisnotareliableindicatoroffutureresults.Indexreturnsdonotaccountforfees.Itisnotpossibletoinvestdirectlyinanindex.Source:BlackRockInvestmentInstitute,withdatafromLSEG

Datastream,December2023.Notes:Thechartshowsthetotalyear-to-datereturnsinU.S.dollartermsfortheS&P500Technologysector(orangeline)andtheS&P500index(yellowline).

Megaforcesarekeydriversofthenew

regime,affectingthelong-termgrowthandinflationoutlookandcreatingshiftsinprofitability.Weseethemasasourceofreturnnowandfarintothefuture.

7

BIIM1223U/M-3266814-7/16

App

software

AIapplicationsopentothousandsofcompanies.

Datainfrastructure

Data

Modelinfra

Foundationmodels

Cloudinfrastructure

Computeinfra

Semisandhardware

Megaforces

AI:intelligence

revolution

AdvancesincomputinghardwareanddeeplearninginnovationsledtoaninflectionpointforAIinlate

2022.Wethinkadvancesfromherearelikelytobeexponentialas

innovationsnowballs.

Yettrackinginvestment

opportunitiesacrossgeographies

andsectorscomeswithhigh

uncertainty.Thetechnology“stack”–layersoftechnologybuiltontopofeachotherthatenablefurther

innovation—mayofferaroadmaptohelpassesstheinvestment

opportunities.Seethechart.

Thebottomlayer(inorangeinthe

schematic)coverscloud

infrastructureandchips–the

buildingblocks.Thesecondlayer(inyellow)coversmodels,dataanddatainfrastructure.Thelastlayer–inwhite–comprisestheappsthatharnesstheinnovation.Wethink

wearesomewherebetweenthe

firstandsecondlayers,withthe

lastonelikelycomingnext.Wesee

theentiretechindustry–ledbyahandfuloflargetechfirms–

pivotingtheirbusinessfocustoAI.

Thatsuggestswemaybejustatthecuspofthisintelligencerevolution,inourview.Implicationslikelygo

beyondthenear-termfocusonproductivitygains.Our

early

research

showsapotentialpositivecorrelationbetweenapickupinAI

patentsandbroadearningsgrowth..

Wealsofindthatinvestorsare

ascribingarisingeconomicvaluetothesepatents.Yetnotallpatents

leadtoprofitableenterprises,and

theirfuturevalueishighlyuncertain.

We’reoverweighttheAIthemeinDM

stocksonasix-to-12-month

horizon.Weseethetechsector’s

earningsresiliencepersistingand

expectittobemajordriverofoverallU.S.corporateprofitgrowthin2024.

AIisamajorpositive-

bothforearningsgrowthandproductivity.”

SimonaParavani-

Mellinghoff

GlobalCIO,

BlackRockMulti-AssetStrategies&

Solutions

FORPUBLICDISTRIBUTIONINTHEU.S.,CANADA,LATINAMERICA,HONGKONG,SINGAPOREANDAUSTRALIA.

FORINSTITUTIONAL,PROFESSIONAL,QUALIFIEDINVESTORSANDQUALIFIEDCLIENTSINOTHERPERMITTEDCOUNTRIES.

TheAItechnologystack

BlackRockviewoftechneedtodevelopAIapplications,December2023

Apps

Storage,managementandmanipulationofthehugedatasetsbeingused.

ThedatausedtotrainandfeedAIapplications–bothpublicandproprietary.

Theproprietaryoropen-sourcelargelanguagemodelsbeingbuilt.

InfrastructureneededtotrainAImodelsonlargeclustersofhigh-performancemachines

Manufacturersofchipsandsemiconductorthatarethebuildingblocksofcomputationalpower.

Charttakeaway:Weseeinvestmentopportunitiesmovingupthestackastechnologyevolves–fromhardwaremanufacturerstodigitalanddatainfrastructureandultimatelytoapplications.

Source:BlackRockInvestmentInstitute,December2023.Notes:TheschematicshowsthetechnologieswethinkwillbeneededtodevelopAIapplications.Eachlayerbuildsontheoneprecedingastechnologiesget“stacked”ontopofoneanother,enablingfurtherinnovation.Theschematicisforillustrativepurposesonlyandintendedasaguidebasedonwhatweknowtoday.AstheAIecosystemevolves,somecategoriesmaybereplacedbynewerones.Referencestosecuritiesareshownforillustrativepurposesonlyandshouldnotbeconstruedasinvestmentadviceorarecommendationtobuyorsell.

Wethinktheoverarchingracetobuildthesmartestmachinesisakintoa

revolution–liketheindustrialandinformationrevolutionsofthepast.

8

BIIM1223U/M-3266814-8/16

CostUSDbillions

Megaforces

Investingin

climateresilience

The

low-carbontransition

isoneofthefivemegaforcesplayingoutinmarketstoday.Welaunchedthe

BlackRockInvestmentInstitute

TransitionScenariotohelp

investorsnavigateitsrisksand

opportunities,withafocusontheenergytransition.Thisisnotjustaboutidentifyingopportunitiesinrenewables;traditionalenergy

companiescanalsooutperform,especiallywhentherearesupply-demandmismatches.

Theenergytransitiontendstogettheheadlines,butweseearelatedthemebecominganimportant

investmentstory:climate

resilience.Thisistheabilityto

preparefor,adapttoandwithstandclimatehazards,andtorebuild

afterclimatedamage.Thinkearlymonitoringsystemstopredict

floods,airconditioningtocope

withheatwaves,orretrofitting

buildingstobetterwithstand

extremeweather.Withclimate

damagessetto

keepmounting

in

comingyears,itwilltakeextensiveinvestmenttobuildsociety’s

resiliencetothem.

Justhowbigwillthosedamagesbe?It’shardtoputanumberonthe

impactonhumanhealthandwell-

being.Thequantifiableeconomic

damageisgrowingfast,asthechartshows.Wealreadyseedemand

growingforproductsandservices

thatbuildclimateresilience.Marketsmaybeunderappreciatinghowthis

canbecomeamainstream

investmentthemeovertime.

In

ourrecentpaper

,wedividethisthemeintothreesub-themes:

assessingandquantifyingrisks,

managingriskandrebuilding

physicalinfrastructure.Thathelpsusbuildaframeworktoidentify

opportunitiesthatcutacross

sectors,suchasindustrialsandtechnology,andassetclasses.

Weseeop