中国CDM能力建设项目培训讲义

基准和额外性Baselinesandadditionality中国CDM能力建设项目培训讲义

TrainingMaterial

BuildingCapacityfortheCDMinChina2023/12/91基准线情景

：Thebaselinescenario基准线（基准线情景）：Baseline

（baselinescenario)对没有CDM项目活动的情况下，对GHG排放趋势情况的预测ScenarioforecastedtoshowthetrendofanthropogenicGHGemissionsthatwouldoccurintheabsenceoftheproposedCDMproject.项目情景：Projectscenario对有CDM项目活动的情况下，对GHG排放趋势情景的预测ScenarioforecasttoshowthetrendofanthropogenicGHGemissionsthatwouldoccurwiththeproposedCDMprojectintervention.2023/12/92基准线：BaselineCDM项目活动的基准线是一种假设情况合理代表在不开展拟议项目活动的情况下的温室气体人为源排放量。基准线应涵盖项目内附件A所列所有气体部门和源类别的排放量 ThebaselineforaCDMprojectactivityisthescenariothatreasonablyrepresentstheanthropogenicemissionsbysourcesofgreenhousegasesthatwouldoccurintheabsenceoftheproposedprojectactivity.Abaselineshallcoveremissionsfromallgases,sectorsandsourcecategorieslistedinAnnexAwithintheprojectboundary.基准线可包含一种假设情况。这种假设情况预计未来人为源排放量因项目东道国的具体情况将超过目前水平 Thebaselinemayincludeascenariowherefutureanthropogenicemissionsbysourcesareprojectedtoriseabovecurrentlevels,duetothespecificcircumstancesofthehostParty.CDMmodalities&procedures,paragraph44&462023/12/93基准线方法：Baselineapproaches(MA48)现有实际排放量或历史排放量（如使用时）在考虑到投资障碍的情况下，一种代表有经济吸引力的技术方案所产生的排放量在过去五年同等社会经济环境和技术状况下，类似项目活动的平均排放量在同一类别位居前20%Existingactualorhistoricalemissions,asapplicable;Emissionsfromatechnologythatrepresentsaneconomicallyattractivecourseof

action,takingintoaccountbarrierstoinvestment;Theaverageemissionsofsimilarprojectactivitiesundertakeninthepreviousfive

years,insimilarsocial,economic,environmentalandtechnologicalcircumstances,andwhose

performanceisamongthetop20percentoftheircategory.基准线方法的选择应从下列各项中选择最适合该项目活动的方法并就其选择说明理由Select

fromamongthefollowingapproachestheonedeemedmost

appropriatefortheprojectactivityandjustifythe

appropriatenessofyour

choice:2023/12/94建立基准线：Establishing

abaseline以一个具体项目为基础依照所使用的已批准的或新的方法学之要求以透明的和保守的方式选择进行方法、假设条件、方法学、数据源、关键因素及额外性，并考虑不确定性考虑与项目业别有关的国家或产亚政策和具体情况，如产亚改革行动、当地燃料供应、动力部门扩展计划以及其他经济条件如果小型CDM项目活动，应依简化的程序建立活动，以符合简化的准择要求Onaproject-specificbasis;InaccordancewithprovisionsfortheuseofapprovedandnewmethodologiesInatransparentandconservativemannermannerregardingthechoiceofapproaches,

assumptions,methodologies,parameters,datasources,keyfactorsandadditionality,andtaking

intoaccountuncertainty;Takingintoaccountrelevantnationaland/orsectorpoliciesandcircumstances,

suchassectorreforminitiatives,localfuelavailability,powersectorexpansionplans,andthe

economicsituationintheprojectsector.Inthecaseofsmall-scaleCDMprojectactivitieswhichmeetthecriteriaspecified

inaccordancewithsimplified

proceduresdevelopedforsuchactivities;2023/12/95基准线与额外性：BaselineandadditionalityYearGHGemissions[tCO2-eq]排放基准线Baselineemissions存在项目情况下的排放Withprojectemissions减排量Emissionreductions项目改善

Abatementproject说明不是常态项目下的减排Explainwhytheemissionreductionarenotbusinessasusual2023/12/96额外性要求：AdditionalityrequirementsCDM项目的温室气体减排应与减缓气候变化有关的真实的、可测量的和长期的效益 GHGemissionreductionsofCDMprojectsshallbereal,measurable,andassurelong-termbenefitsrelatedtothemitigationofclimatechangeCDM项目温室气体的减排放应是在没有经证明的项目活动的情况下所产生的额外的所有排放量的减少 GHGemissionreductionsofCDMprojectsshallbeadditionaltoanythatwouldoccurintheabsenceofthecertifiedprojectactivity.KyotoProtocol,Article12/5(c)清洁发展机制项目活动应具有额外性，即温室气体人为源排放量减少到低于不开展清洁发展机制项目活动情况下会出现的水平

ACDMprojectactivityisadditionalifanthropogenicemissionsofgreenhousegasesbysourcesarereducedbelowthosethatwouldhaveoccurredintheabsenceoftheregisteredCDMprojectactivity.CDMmodalities&procedures,paragraph432023/12/97额外性评估：Additionalityassessment通过流程图或一系列问题逐渐缩小基准情景选择的范围定性或定量的评估不同可能的基准情景，并说明该基准情景的项目不可能实施定性或定量地评估所提议的项目实施障碍展示说明该项目不是通常惯例，例如发生的情况<全部可能情况的X%Aflow-chartorseriesofquestionsthatleadtoanarrowingofpotentialbaseline

options;Aqualitativeorquantitativeassessmentofdifferentpotentialoptionsandanindicationof

whythenon-projectoptionismorelikely;Aqualitativeorquantitativeassessmentofoneormorebarriersfacingtheproposed

projectactivity;(Anindicationthattheprojecttypeisnotcommonpractice(e.g.occursinlessthan<x%ofallcases)额外性评估是说明以所使用的方法学如何展示该项目具有额外性，并非基准线情景

Additionalityassessmentisanexplanationofhow,

throughtheuseofthemethodology,itcanbedemonstratedthataprojectactivityisadditionaland

thereforenotthebaselinescenario.2023/12/98额外性：引用新法规

Additionality:Introductionofnewlegislation

E+类：现行国家及（或）产亚政策或法规会造成法规主导市场衰退，而使排放较大的技术比排放较少的技术/能源的能耗更有竟争性TypeE+:Existingnationaland/orsectoralpoliciesorregulationsthatcreatepolicy

drivenmarketdistortionswhichgivecomparativeadvantagestomoreemissions-intensivetechnologiesorfuelsoverlessemissions-intensivetechnologiesorfuels.只有在”E+类”的国家及（或）产亚政策或法规在COP缔结京都议定书（1997.12.11之decision1/CP.3)前已实行者，在建立基准线清景可被纳入考虑。如“E+类”的国家及（或）产亚政策或法规在COP缔结京都议定书后才推行者，其基准线清景应以没有此类政策或法规之假设情况为是-Only“TypeE+”nationaland/orsectoralpoliciesorregulationsthathavebeenimplementedbeforeadoptionoftheKyotoProtocolbytheCOP(decision1/CP.3,11December1997)shallbetakenintoaccountwhendevelopingabaselinescenario.If“TypeE+”nationaland/orsectoralpolicieswereimplementedsincetheadoptionoftheKyotoProtocol,thebaselinescenarioshouldrefertoahypotheticalsituationwithoutthenationaland/orsectoralpoliciesorregulationsbeinginplace.E-类：现行国家及（或）产亚政策或法规，使排放较少的技术比排放较大的技术/能源的能耗更有竟争性（如对可再生能源的公共补偿或资助方案）TypeE-:Nationaland/orsectoralpoliciesorregulationsthatgivepositivecomparativeadvantagestolessemissions-intensivetechnologiesovermoreemissions-intensivetechnologies(e.g.publicsubsidiestopromotethediffusionofrenewableenergyortofinanceenergyefficiencyprograms):”E-类”的国家及（或）产亚政策或法规在COP缔结京都议定书（1997.12.11之decision1/CP.3)后才实行者，在建立基准线清景可不被纳入考虑（即其基准线清景应以没有此类政策或法规之假设情况为是）TypeE-nationaland/orsectoralpoliciesorregulationsthathavebeenimplementedsincetheAdoptionbytheCOPoftheCDMM&P(decision17/CP.7,11November2001)maynotbetakenintoaccountindevelopingabaselinescenario(i.e.thebaselinescenarioshouldrefertoahypotheticalsituationwithoutthenationaland/orsectoralpoliciesorregulationsbeinginplace).2023/12/99额外性工具：Theadditionalitytool0.对早期开始项目的考虑

0:JustifyearlystartoftheprojectandshowthatCDMwasconsidered1.与法规要求相关的基准选择

1.Baselineoptionsrelatedtoexistinglawsandregulations2.投资分析2.Investmentanalysis:简单的NVP/IRR,标杆：Simple,NPV/IRR,benchmark比较，敏感性分析：Comparisons,sensitivityanalysis3.其他障碍3:Otherbarriers:首个项目、能力、技术

Other:Firstofkind,capacity,technologyetc..4.证明项目不是常规项目：

4:Demonstartethattheprojectisnotcommonpractice5.对注册的影响:5:ImpactofCDMregistration

2023/12/910额外性判断范例-步骤1

Additionalitytestingexample-Step1

定义替代方法 Definealternatives:此项目不会成为CDM项目

TheprojectnotundertakenasCDMproject所有其他可能的情景

Allotherplausibleandcrediblescenarios常态情形（如使用时）

Thebusinessasusual(asapplicable)检验法规

Checktowardslegislation若法规未实行，则可使该项目具有额外性 Iflegislationisnotenforced,thismaycausetheprojecttobeadditional2023/12/911额外性判断范例-步骤2

-Additionalitytestingexample-Step2计算提交项目的保守内部回报率IRR排除售出CERs的预期收入包括更新非常规商业项目的所有成本：可能的追加投资运行成本维护成本包括所有项目活动产生的收入：销售所发的电力由于使用自发电的成本节约、Calculateaconservativeinternalrateofreturn(IRR)fortheproposedprojectactivityExcludingexpectedrevenuefromthesaleofCERs.Includetheincrementalinvestmentcost,theoperationsandmaintenancecosts,andallothercostsofupgradingtheBAUscenariototheproposedprojectactivity.Alsoincludeallrevenuesgeneratedbytheprojectactivity,includingrevenuefromthesaleofelectricityandcostsavingsduetoavoidedelectricitypurchases,2023/12/912额外性判断范例-步骤2

-AdditionalitytestingexampleStep2确定项目的IRR是否明显低于参照项目期望的或可接受的IRR或与相似国家的项目进行比较保守可接受的IRR的标准政府债券利率或其他估算的资金成本（商业贷款利率）专家对期望的IRR的意见或项目类型的比较

其他适用在行业或国家的障碍.DeterminewhethertheprojectIRRissignificantlylowerthanaconservatively(i.e.ratherlow)expectedandacceptableIRRforanalternativetothisprojectoracomparableprojecttypeintherelevantcountry.TheconservativelyacceptableIRRcanbebasedon:Governmentbondratesorotherappropriateestimatesofthecost-of-capital(e.g.commerciallendingrates);ExpertviewsonexpectedIRRsforthisorcomparableprojecttypes;Otherhurdleratesthatcanbeappliedforthecountryorsector.2023/12/913壁垒与经济决策原理（1）：BarriersandEconomicTheory(1)2023/12/914壁垒与经济决策原理（2）：BarriersandEconomicTheory(2)2023/12/915投资项目经济分析：Projectfinancialanalysis

净现值（NPV）：内部报酬率（IRR）:

B=（收入）BenefitsC=（成本）Costs2023/12/916时间价值：TimeValue你现在可以选择：现在获得1000美元：A.Receive$10,000nowOR3年后获得1000美元：B.Receive$10,000inthreeyears

现在的1万元比今后的1万元价值高10000nowareworthmorethan10000inthefuture2023/12/917未来价值：FutureValue2023/12/918现值：PresentValue2023/12/919净现值：NetPresentValue净现值是指在项目计算期内，按行业基准折现率或其他设定折现率计算的各年净现金流量现值的代数和。NetPresentValueisthecumulativepresentvalueofincome(positivevalues)andaseriesoffuturepayments(negativevalues)fromaseriesofinvestmentcashflowusingadiscountratetohandletimevaluesofmoney.i=Discountrate

CF=CashFlow

j=thej-thperiod

n=thetotalnumberoftheperiod2023/12/920净现值：NetPresentValue

当净现值为正时，NPV>0：由于资本所值大于其成本，因而增加企业的价值；

moreeconomicattractive当净现值为负时，NPV<0：由于资本成本大于其所值，因而减少企业价值,

lesseconomicattractive净现值为零时，NPV=0：意味着投资人已经赚到与投资风险相应的适当回报。

Balanceattractive2023/12/921内部收益率：IRR当效益和成本的现值相等时的投资的回报率IRRisthediscountraterwhichmakestheNPVoftheinvestmentexactlyzero.2023/12/922步骤2总结：Step2summary如果NPV/IRR太低，无论CERs的收入如何，项目将不会被考虑

ifNPV/IRRistoolow,theprojectwillnotgoaheadanyway,regardlessoftheCERsrevenueornot;如果NPV/IRR太高，将难以解释投资障碍的问题。

if

NPV/IRRistoohigh,theprojectwillhavedifficultiesin

explainingtheinvestmentbarrier,

asitmaybearguedthatitwouldbeimplementedanyway,regardlessoftheCERsrevenue.项目投资分析中涉及许多假设情况，DOE在审定此一问题时非常困难

itisverydifficultfortheDOEtochecktheIRRaswedon'tknow

aprojectdeveloper'sinternalcostingapproach,theway

benefitsareevaluated,etc.therearealotofassumptionsinsuchcalculations,aswe'retalkingaboutfuturecashflows.指定经营实体一般采取向有关管理部门或利害相关方了解NPV/IRR是否合理

DNVbasesitsjudgementonexperienceswithsimilarprojectsintherespectivesectorandcountrycontextandwillask

authoritiesorotherstakeholderswhetherthe

NPV/IRRanalysisinthePDDisreasonable.在PDD文件中应增加对投资障碍的数量分析

Addaqualitative

discussionabouttheNPV/IRRinyourPDDtomakethecaseofaninvestmentbarrier.2023/12/923额外性判断范例-步骤3

-Additionalitytestingexample-Step3壁垒评估 Barrierassessment:投资壁垒 Investmentbarriers技术壁垒

Technologicalbarriers因流行实务造成的壁垒 Barriersduetoprevailingpractice 支持壁垒的充分证据 Supportbarrierswithsufficientevidence 证明最终的情景无法避免此壁垒（那就是基线!) Showthatatleastoneof