欧盟能源现状-2023-12-宏观大势

CurrentEUenergy

marketsituation&

insightsfromtheACER-

CEERMarket

Keylessonsfromtheenergycrisis

2

Throughturbulenttimes…

Agassupplyshockofunprecedentedscalefuelledtheenergycrisis.

EUgasandelectricitypricesandrelevantmarketfundamentals(EUR/MWh)-May2021-October2023

Misfortunespile-up:adoublesupplyshock,bothingasandinelectricitygeneration,addedstresstoEuropean

energymarkets,especiallyduringQ3andQ4of2022.

Source:ACERbasedonPlatts’.TheDutchTitleTransferFacilitygashub(TTF)andtheGermanEuropeanEnergyExchange(EEX)month-aheadcontractpricesareusedasbenchmarksforgasandelectricitypricingrespectively.

3

See:ACER'selectricityandgasKeyDevelopmentsreports(&datadashboards),2023.

…Integratedmarketshelpedmitigateshocks

Europe’sintegratedenergymarketsprovedresilientduringthecrisis,bringingmultiplebenefits.

Pricevolatilityinintegratedandisolatedelectricity

marketsintheEU,2021(EUR/MWh)

GasflowsbetweenGermanyandBelgium,

2018–Q32023(TWh/month)

Integratedmarketsenabletheintegrationofrenewables,helpensuresecurityofsupply,facilitate

neededchangesingasflows,mitigatepricevolatilityandprovideflexibilitytothesystem.

Source:ACERbasedonNEMOs'simulations.Volatilitywasestimatedbyusingthestandarddeviationofday-aheadwholesaleprices.Thestandarddeviationwascalculatedperbiddingzoneforthewholeyear,thenaveragedoutacrosstheEU.

See:ACER'sFinalAssessmentoftheEUWholesaleElectricityMarketDesign,April2022.

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Emergencymeasuresshieldedend-consumers

Wholesaleelectricitypricespeaked,but

Effectofemergencymeasuresonretailprices–EU-27,

June2021–April2023(%andEUR/MWh)

emergencymeasuresmitigatedtheincreasein

retailprices.

Targetedmeasures:Lessthanaquarter(23%)

ofcostsassociatedwithemergencymeasures

weretargeted.

arinkraine

nergcrisis

Attentionneededgoingforward:

Householdelectricitypricesdropataslowerrate

thanthewholesaleprices.

Priceincrease

ifnomeasureshadbeenimplementedPriceE

R

hecludingmeasuresPriceE

R

hincludingmeasures

Reductionofretailpriceswasachieved,thoughathighcosts.

Source:VaasaETT.

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See:ACER'sassessmentofEnergyEmergencyMeasures,July2023.

Contributorstoanewsupply-demandbalance

EstimatedEUgassupplyanddemanddifferencesin2022incomparisonto2021-bcm

AcombinationofenhancedLNGsupply,gasinfrastructureinvestments(mostlyinLNG

regasification)andsharplyreducedgasconsumptionbroughtanewsupply-demandbalance.

Source:ACERcalculationbasedENTSOGTP,THE,Enagas,andGIEandPlatts.

See:ACER'sEuropeanGasMarketsMarketMonitoringReport,October2023.

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LNGlargelyfilledthegapleftbylowerRussiansupply

ShareofgassupplywithRussianpipelineoriginperMS

ShareofEUgasimportsperquarter-LNGandRussian

pipelineimports(estimate):2019-Q32023(%)

(estimate),2021andQ32023(%)

2021

2023

Russian(pipeline)supplydrophasbeenlargelyoffsetbyrisingLNGimportstotheEUandreduced

gasdemand.SelectMemberStatesinSouth-EastEuropewherelong-termcontractsaremaintained

arestillhighlyexposedtorisksoffulldisruptionofRussiansupply.

Source:ACERestimationsbasedonENTSOGTP,Eurostat,PlattsandBruegeldata.

​

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See:ACER'sEuropeanGasMarketsMarketMonitoringReport,October2023.

ExpandedLNGcapacityalleviatedsupplycongestion

Regasificationcapacitybyimportmarketandestimated

startdate2020to2030(bcm)

Day-aheadhubspreadbetweenGermanyandBelgiumandcostofday-

aheadtransmissioncapacity–EUR/MWh

FirstLNGGerman

terminalsonline

NewLNGterminalsgraduallyhelpedalleviategassupplycongestioninNorth-WestandCentral

Europe,bringinghubpricespreadscloser.Quickerplanning,permittingandbuilding,aswellas

relianceonfasterandmoredynamicfloatingLNGregasificationunitsprovedkey.

Source:PlattsandPRISMA.

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Source:ACER’sCongestionMonitoringReport,May2023.

Developmentspointingfurtherahead

In2022,thegenerationfromrenewableenergysourcesremainedalmostconstant,despiteadeclinein

hydropowerandthecontextofthecrisis.

ShareofEUpowergenerationpertechnology–2022(%)

Annualchangeinsolarelectricitygeneration–2000–2022(TWh)

Forthefirsttimein2022,windandsolargenerationproducedmoreelectricitythangasintheEU.

Newsolarcapacityadditions-aparticularlylow-leadtimegenerationsource-doubledin2022

comparedtotheyearbefore.

Source:EMBERdata.

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See:ACER'selectricityKeyDevelopmentsreport,February2023.

IntegratedEUenergymarkets~some

progress,somerecurrentchallenges

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Despitethecrisis,someprogress

June2022:adecisivemilestonewiththego-EUelectricitydayaheadmarketareascoupledin2010(left)and2021(right)

liveofCoreFBmarketcoupling.

Long-term,dayaheadandIntradaymarkets

arenowcoupledacrosstheEUwithaPan-

Europeanplatformfortheallocationofcross-

bordercapacities,ensuringthatthebestoffer

meetsdemandatalltimes.

➢Socialwelfaregainsareestimatedatmore

than30billioneurosperyear*,and

continuedeffortscoulddelivermore.

4

Pan-European

balancing

allocation

platforms(IGCC,TERRE,MARI,PICASSO)

havealsobeenestablished.

TSOsoperationalonEuropeanbalancingplatforms-September2023

Platform

PICASSO

MARI

TERRE

IGCC

Operational

members(TSOs)

Operational

members

7

6

6

21

➢stillneedtobedeployedacrossEurope.

AT,CZ,DE,

IT

AT,CZ,DE

CH,CZ,ES,

FR,IT,PT

AT,BE,HR,CZ,FR,DE,

GR,HU,IT,NL,PL,PT,

RO,SL,SI,ES,CH

(Memberstates)

Source:NEMOs.

Note:*Grossbenefits.

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Whycross-zonalcapacitymatters

Maximisingcross-zonalcapacitiesisa

prerequisiteforawell-functioning

Europeanelectricitymarket.

Balticpricespike,17August2022

,

,

,

,

Thishasbeenemphasisedbytheenergy

crisisof2022,wherecross-zonaltrade

playedafundamentalrolein:

➢Mitigatingpricevolatilityacrossthe

EU.

➢Ensuringsecurityofsupply.

➢Enhancingtheintegrationof

renewables.

oad

vailableimportcapacityPrice

➢Providingflexibilitytothemarket.

Hourlyvariationsinload,importcapacityandday-aheadpriceintheBalticregionon17

August2022(MW,MWandEUR/MWh,respectively)

The'minimum70%requirement'enablesthemostefficientuseoftheavailablephysical

interconnectioncapacity.

Source:ENTSO-EtransparencyplatformandREMIT.

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See:ACER'sFinalAssessmentoftheEUWholesaleElectricityMarketDesign,April2022.

FewMemberStatesreachthe70%requirement

Derogationsandactionplans

AcrosstheEU,thepictureofthefulfilmentoftheminimum

70%requirementvariessignificantly:

➢Largenumberofactionplansand/orderogationsstill

apply.

➢Differentstagesofimplementationofregional

methodologies(suchascapacitycalculationandROSC).

Liftingbothinternalandcross-zonalcongestioniskeyto

achievingtheminimum70%requirement.‘Alltoolsinthe

toolbox’needtobeexploited:

➢Enabletheuseofallavailableremedialactions;and

➢Implementflow-basedtolarge,meshed,

coordinationareas;and

➢Expeditegridinvestment;and

➢Wherenotsufficient(orcost-efficient),takeonan

ambitiousbiddingzonereview.

Derogation(s)

Actionplan

Derogation(s)&anactionplan

None

Source:ACERreportoncross-zonalcapacitiesandthe70%marginavailableforcross-zonalelectricitytrade,July2023.

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Risingcostofre-dispatchingacrosstheEU

Pressureonguaranteeingthecross-zonalcapacityrequirementshassignificantlyincreasedre-dispatchingcostsand

volumes.Thistrendwillonlyaccrueincomingyears.

EvolutionofthetotalcostandvolumeofactivatedremedialactionsinGermany(left)andFrance(right)-2019-2022

Source:ACER’sProgressofEUelectricitywholesalemarketintegration,November2023.

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AdjustmentsunderwayforEUgasmarkets

TheRussiangassupplyshockpromptedamajorrebalancingoftheEUgasmarketsthatwillhave

lastingimpacts.Thereareforward-lookingimplicationsandspecificpolicyactionstobeconsidered.

1.HigherdependenceonLNGsupply:

EUgaspriceswillbemoreexposedtoglobalcompetition

andturnmorevolatile.Toensuresustained

2.Emergencymeasuresandwell-functioningmarkets:

Thechallengesandopportunitiesthatemergedinthesummer

of2022underscoretheneedforeffectiveredistributiveand

priceshieldingmeasures.Athoroughpolicyreflectionis

essentialtonavigatesimilarscenarios,protectingfinal

consumerswhilepreservingmarketfunctioning.

competitiveness,itisimperativetosafeguardfairaccess

toLNGterminalsandpromotemarkettransparency.

3.Evolutionofgasdemand:

4.Theroleofundergroundstorages:

Thereisaneedtoreduceconventionalgas

demandtoadjusttoatightsupplymarketand

assistEUdecarbonisationgoals.Policy

actionshouldpromotethisandatthesame

timepreservetheeconomicactivityandsecurityof

supplythatgasoffers.

Storages'dualrole,securingmid-termsupplyandaiding

short-termsystemflexibility,willbemademoreevident.

Policyformulationsshouldapplythelessonslearned

fromthesummerof2022,limitingpublicsupport

interventionsandfurtherengagingmarketresponse.

See:ACER'sEuropeanGasMarketsMarketMonitoringReport,October2023.

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Flexibilityneedsareontherise

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Unleashingsystemflexibility:thenewfrontier

Barrierscomein‘manysizesandshapes’…

MultipleeffortsatEUlevelongoingto

enhancepowersystemflexibility

Overviewofbarrierstodistributedenergyresourcesandothernewentrantsand

smalleractorsperMemberState

Barrierstodemandresponseareoften‘hidinginplainsight’.Thesumofmanysmallerobstacles

addsuptosignificantbarriers,impedingsystemflexibility.

ACERispublishinganewassessmentofbarriers

todemandresponseinDecember2023.

Source:UpcomingACERreportonbarrierstodemandresponseandothernewentrantsandsmallactors,December2023.

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Implicationsgoingforward

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Implicationsgoingforward

ThecommonEuropeanframeworkandintegrated

marketswereessentialtohelpMemberStates

shoulderseveralrisksduringtheenergycrisis.

Accelerateandstrengthentheintegration

oftheEuropeanelectricitymarket.

➢Sectorinterconnectivitykeyinovercoming

uncertaingassuppliesandincreasedoutages.

➢Multi-levelcoordinationessentialforsecure

supplyofelectricity.

Anyemergencynecessarilycallsfortrade-offsand

compromises;yetsomeapproachesoutperformothers.

Preparewell-balancedandcoordinated

€

➢Somemeasurescomewithadverseeffects

(e.g.affordabilitymeasuresmayhinder

demandreduction,requiringnuanced

solutions).

➢No-regretmeasures(e.g.energyefficiency,

renewablesuptake)shouldbeprioritised.

Source:ACER’sProgressofEUelectricitywholesalemarketintegration,November2023.

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