2022-2023年非洲房地产市场报告

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THEAFRICAREPORT2022/23

WELCOME

WelcometoTheAfricaReport2022/23,KnightFrank'ultimateguidetorealestate

marketperformanceandopportunitiesintheworld'smostexcitingcontinent.

JAMESLEWIS,MANAGINGDIRECTOR.

KNIGHTFRANKMIDDLEEASTANDAFRICA

Aswelaunchourbiennial2022/23AfricaTheretaillandscapehasexperiencedavery

Report,weareoptimisticaboutthefortunesofmixedpicture,withsomemarketsenjoying

thecontinent'srealestatemarkets,althoughresilientdemandforspaceinsmaller,community

clearly,lingeringCovid-relatedlegacyshoppingcentres,whileotherlocationsfacethe

challengesremainandareinsomecasesbeingthreatofoversupplyanddepressedrents.

exacerbatedbyglobalgeopoliticalevents.

Our2022/23AfricaReportboastscoverageof

Thatsaid,withoilpricesbeingsustainedatpropertymarketsin22countries,includingthree

welloverUS$100perbarrel,oil-exportingmarketinsightarticlesexaminingsomeofthe

nationsinAfricawillundoubtedlyexperiencemostpressingissuesfacingrealestatearound

aneconomicboost,whileothersthatneedthecontinent.

toimportoilmayfaceadditionalheadwinds

Iinviteyoutoexploreourresearchandwelcome

thisyear.

theopportunitytodiscussourfindingswithyou

Theindustrialmarkethasprovedtobeinmoredetail.

extremelyresilient,withaseeminglypermanent

pivotbyconsumerstoonlineshopping

turbochargingwarehousingrequirements.

Elsewhere,internationaldemandforhomes

toleaseorpurchaseisimprovingasexpats

returnfollowingtheeasingofglobalCovid­

travelrestrictions.Risinginflationandasharp

increaseinthecostofborrowingisexpected

tocurbdemandamongstdomestichouse

hunters,however.

Officemarketsaregrapplingwiththefall-out

ofthepandemicashybridworkingpatterns

becomeincreasinglymainstream,particularlyDISCOVERTHEAFRICA

amongstinternationaloccupiers.REPORT2022/23

1

THEAFRICAREPORT2022/23

CONTENTS

MARKETINSIGHTS

Challengestoopeningtheinvestmentfloodgates02

ThedigitalracetoconnectAfrica03

AffordabilitykeytounlockingAfrica'shousingmarkets04

COUNTRYFOCUS

Algeria06

Botswana08

CotedMvoire10

Egypt12

Ethiopia14

Ghana16

Kenya18

Malawi20

Mauritius22

Morocco24

Mozambique26

Nigeria28

Senegal30

SouthAfrica32

Tanzania34

Tunisia36

Uganda38

Zambia40

Zimbabwe42

MARKETSNAPSHOTS

Niger,Sudan,Rwanda44

RENTSATAGLANCE46

KNIGHTFRANKINTHEMIDDLEEASTANDAFRICA48

2

THEAFRICAREPORT2022/23

MARKETINSIGHT

CHALLENGESTOOPENING

THEINVESTMENTFLOODGATES

AttractingmeaningfulvolumesofinstitutionalcapitalintoAfricacontinuestoprove

challengingandrecentglobalmacroeconomiceventsappeartobehamperingmatters

further.Indeed,totalcross-borderinvestmentinAfricancommercialrealestatestoodat

US$274millionin2021fdown49%from2020and54%lowerthan2019figures.

Thatsaid,certainrealestatesectorsThoughthetraditionalofficesectorAccordingtothe2022IMF-Regional

onthecontinenthavedemonstratedgloballyisexpectedtoaccountforjustEconomicoutlookforSubSaharan

relativeresiliencedespitetheoverhalfofallcross-borderinvestmentAfrica,inflationisexpectedtoremain

unprecedentedglobaleconomictransactions,inAfricaweexpecttoelevatedin2022at12.2%before

headwindsalbeitwithadivergenceseearotationofassetsbyinvestors,easingto9.6%in2023thoughthere

inperformancebetweenthosewell-particularlyprivateequity,intotheissignificantheterogeneityacross

located,sustainable,coreassets,hardindustrial,residential,lifesciencestheregion.Realestateistraditionally

currencyincomeandtherest.anddatacentresectors.Investmentseenasaninflationhedgeandsoan

managersandinstitutionalinvestorsinflationaryenvironmentislikelyto

Webelieve,therefore,thenextfew

areexpectedtoleadthedemandboostdemand.

yearswillseeaboostininvestment

forthesealternativesectors,while

volumesinwhathasbeenarelativelySeparately,climatechangetooposes

HNWCswilldemonstratestrong

immaturemarket,providinginvestorsextremechallengesfortheregion

interesttoo,particularlyintothemore

withtheopportunitytorebalancegivenitsexposuretoweather-related

stablemarkets,suchasSouthAfrica

portfolios,executebusinessplansandeventsandtherelianceonrain-fed

andKenya.

furthertheirstrategicgoals.agriculture;investmentinadaptation

Factorsthatinfluencecapitalflowsisthereforeofparamountimportance,

includepoliticaloutlooksandbutthegreentransitionalsoprovides

“ESGisanincreasinglyenvironmentalrisk.Inaddition,newopportunitiesforAfricagivenits

monetarytighteningintheUnitedpotentialforrenewableenergy.

globalfocusforrealStatesandrisingriskpremiums

ESGisanincreasinglyglobalfocusfor

associatedwiththewarinUkraine,

estateinvestors,andwerealestateinvestors,andweexpect

haveplaceddownwardpressureon

thistospurcapitalflowstowardsgreen

expectthistospurcapitalexchangeratesacrossAfrica,although

ratedbuildings.Africahas785green­

realestateinvestorshavemitigated

flowstowardsgreenratedbuildings,641ofwhicharein

thisriskbydeployingtheircapitalin

ratedbuildings.”SouthAfricaalone.

projectsthathavedollardenominated

BENWOODHAMS,PARTNER.AFRICADESKreturns,wherepossible.

LISTENTO

OUREXPERTS

3

THEAFRICAREPORT2022/23

MARKETINSIGHT

Asapartofthereactiontothedisruptioncausedbythepandemic,morebusinesseshave

takentheiroperationsonlineandinternetaccesshasbecomemoreessentialthaneverfor

businesscontinuity.

Thisreactioniscontinuingtostimulatefurtherplanned105MW(DCByte).Centres,whichplanstodevelopa

demandfordatacentredevelopmentinAmongtheplannedprojectsarefurther10datacentresacrossAfrica.

Africa,withsupplygrowingacrosstheexpansionsofsitesinKenya,South

Overall,SouthAfricaappearstohave

continentAfricaandNigeriabyAfricaData

securedpolepositionasthecontinent's

AccordingtoDCByte,themajordatacentrecapital.Indeedtherepublic

datacentreadditionsin2021werewillsoonhouseAfrica'slargestdata

inJohannesburg.LagosandNairobi.Numberofdatacentrescentre,whichisbeingdevelopedin

Theselocations,togetherwithCairoandphasesbyVantageDataCentres.The

Casablanca,areregardedasbeingthefirst16MWphaseisexpectedtocome

topfivekeydatacentremarketsonlinelaterthisyear.

inAfrica.DCByteclassifies12

Lookingahead,weexpecttoseean

thesecountriesaskey

MOROCCOintensificationindatacentredemandas

hublocationsinAfrica,

theneedforconnectivitybythepublic

mainlybecauseoftheir

sector,professionalsinthefintechand

economicpotential.

8healthcarespacespurdemandacross

EGYPT

Likeotherpartsthecontinent.Indeed,thefinancial

oftheworld,andbusinessservices,aswellasthe

datacentresaretransport,storage,information

gainingtraction&communicationservices

asanalternativesectorsareforecasttoadd

(andattractive)almost11millionnew

developmentjobsaround

assetinAfricaNIGERIAAfricabythe

amongstendofthe

developersanddecade(Oxford

investors.ThisisEconomics).

evidencedbythe

continent-widelive

16

capacity

66Awayfromtheretail

sector,theindustrial

sectorshowedsome

promisewithincreased

industrialactivityand17

thegrowthofindustrial

parksindifferentpartsSOUTHAFRICA

ofthecountry.”Source:DCByte

THEAFRICAREPORT2022/23

MARKETINSIGHT

AFFORDABILITYKEYTOUNLOCKING

AFRICA'SHOUSINGMARKETS

Continent-wide,residentialWitheconomiesslowlylimpingThesestrongincreasesarelikelytobe

marketshavebeeninbacktolifeandinternationaltravelcurbedashousingdemandinmany

resuming,expatriatesandtouristsarecitiesisstartingtoshiftawayfromcity

astateofasuspended

returning,whichisboostingdemandcentrestothesuburbsprimarilydueto

animationforthebetterandtheperformanceoftheresidentialaffordabilityconsiderations,butalso

partoftwoandahalfyears.sectorasjoblevelsrecover.duetotherelativegaininindoorand

Indeed,inLagos,rentscurrentlystandoutdoorspace.Withinflationcontinuing

22%higherthantheywerein2019,toedgeupwards,affordabilityis

whileCapeTown(13%)andNairobiexpectedtocomeintoevensharper

(5%)havealsoregisteredincreasesfocus,especiallyasrealhousehold

overthesameperiod.incomescontinuetobeeroded.

5

THEAFRICAREPORT2022/23

Historically,housingaffordabilityaccesstocheapdebtfinancing,propertytypesbeingbroughtforward

challengeshavebeenusuallybutrisinglendingratesarequicklytoaddressAfrica'saffordablehousing

addressedatgovernmentlevel,becomingastumblingblockforneeds.Co-livingandfullyfurnished

throughvarioussubsidiesandinthemanyhousehunters.InNigeriaforapartmentshavequicklybecomemore

currentrecord-inflationenvironment,instance,mortgageratesstandatmainstreamandareprovingtobea

thecontinenfsauthoritiesarerapidlyover20%,positioningthemwellouthitamongstlocalsaswellasreturning

mobilisingtostaveoffanycost-ofreachoftheaveragebuyer,withsingleexpatriates.

of-livingemergency.TheEgyptian

recenttransactionsbeinglinked

government,forinstance,hasalready

predominantlytocash-richdiaspora.

intervenedintheresidentialmarket

byreducinglandacquisitioncosts,SouthAfricaenjoyedaboomindeal

whileothergovernmentshavetriedactivityin2020asaccesstodebt

toencouragethedevelopmentoffinancingwasaffordableduetothe“Developersrecognisethe

moreaffordablehousingthroughtaxlowprevailinginterestrate,butthescaleofchallengeand

rebatesonconstructioncosts.heightenedsalesactivityisrapidlythecontinenthasseena

slowingaslendingratesrise.

Elsewhere,thechallengeisgreater.widerangeofresidential

Inmanymarketsonthecontinent,Developersrecognisethescaleof

demandforresidentialrealestatethechallengeandthecontinenthaspropertytypesbeing

hashistoricallybeenfuelledbyeasyseenawiderangeofresidentialbroughtforward.”

6

THEAFRICAREPORT2022/23

COUNTRYFOCUS

ALGERIA

Anincreaseindemandforofficesisimminent,asthecountry'scoreeconomicpillar,

theoilandgassector,experiencesarampingupininvestmentandjobcreationrates.

♦

LifestyleMallhasHousingmarketOfficedemandIndustrialrents

added25,000sqmawaitsreturnofexpectedtorecoverdroppedby45%in

ofretailspacetoexpatdemandthelasttwoyears

Algeria'sretailstock

OFFICEDEMANDEXPECTEDTOBOUNCEBACK66Theofficeleasingmarketisonthe

Thereisarelativelylowlevelofpurpose-builtofficescuspofexperiencingaresurgence

inAlgiers.TheofficestockintheCBDiscomposedof

buildingsconstructedbyindigenousdevelopers,withindemand.

smallfloorplatesandlittleornoparkingprovisions.Newer

additionstothecity'ssupplyinperipheralareassuchas

BabEzzouar,havemostlybeendevelopedbycorporate

occupiers,someinternational,manyofwhomhavebeen

offeredtaxbreakstoencourageowner-occupation.TheseOuroptimisticexpectationisbackedbytheexpansionof

buildingstendtobeofahigherqualitythanelsewhereinCarrefourin2020,takingthetotalretailspaceoccupiedby

thecityastheyarebuilttoaninternationalspecification.thesupermarketgiantto10,500sqmacrosstwolocations.

Unsurprisingly,thesebuildingshavefaredbetterthantheirFurthermore,2021sawtheadditionofthe25,000sqm

CBDcounterpartsintermsoftheirpopularityamongstLifestyleMallinCheraga,whichwasrapidlyleasedand

internationaloccupiersinthewakeofthepandemic.housesbrandssuchasZara,MangoandMassimoDutti.

Thatsaid,webelievetherentalmarketisonthecuspof

experiencingaresurgenceindemandastheoilandgasHOUSINGMARKETWASSEVERELYHITBY

industryroarsbacktolife,bringinganinfluxofsupporting

COVID-19

internationalbusinessesandworkers.

Residentialvalueshavebeeninastateofdeclinefor

severalyears.Thepandemic,devaluationoftheDinar

RETAILREMAINSRESILIENT

andthegeneraldropinpurchasingpowerhaveaddedto

TheretailsectorhasdevelopedsignificantlyinAlgeriatheresidentialmarkefsmalaise.WithAlgeria'sborders

overthepastdecade,andalthoughitwashithardbytheeffectivelyshuttointernationalvisitorsfortwoyears,

coronaviruspandemicandrecenteconomicheadwinds,theconfidenceinthemarketwaned,withtransactional

sectorisgenerallybuoyantandtheoutlookpositive.volumesslippingtonearrecordlowlevels.

7

THEAFRICAREPORT2022/23

Monthlyrent(USSpsm)

■Offices■RetailIndustrial■Residential(RHS)X

3514,000

3012,000

2510,000

208,000

156.000

104,000

52,000

0-----------0

201720182019202020212022

Source:EMC,KnightFrank,Averagemonthlyprimeleaseratesforfour-bedroomhomes

2022Yields(%)

Source:EMC.KnightFrank

Indeed,bothsalespricesandleaserateshavewidelyNEWLAWSBOOSTINGINDUSTRIALACTIVITY

fallenby10%-20%acrosstheboard.Furthermore,there

Previously,businessescouldnotoperateinAlgeriawithout

hasbeen