美国岸基风电市场报告2023版

Land-Based

Wind

MarketReport:

2023EditionLand-BasedWindMarketReport:2023EditionDisclaimerThis

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expressedhereindonotnecessarilystateorreflectthoseoftheUnitedStatesgovernmentoranyagencythereof.AvailableelectronicallyatSciTechConnect:/scitechAvailableforaprocessingfeetoU.S.DepartmentofEnergyanditscontractors,inpaper,from:U.S.DepartmentofEnergyOfficeofScientificandTechnicalInformationP.O.Box62OakRidge,TN37831-0062OSTI:Phone:865.576.8401Fax:865.576.5728Email:reports@Availableforsaletothepublic,inpaper,from:U.S.DepartmentofCommerceNationalTechnicalInformationService5301ShawneeRoadAlexandria,VA22312NTIS:Phone:800.553.6847or703.605.6000Fax:703.605.6900Email:orders@iiLand-BasedWindMarketReport:2023EditionPreparationandAuthorshipThisreportwaspreparedbyLawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratoryfortheWindEnergyTechnologiesOfficeoftheU.S.DepartmentofEnergy’sOfficeofEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergy.Corresponding

authorsofthereportareRyanWiserandMarkBolinger,LawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratory.Thefullauthorlistincludes:RyanWiser,MarkBolinger,BenHoen,DevMillstein,JoeRand,GalenBarbose,NaïmDarghouth,WillGorman,SeongeunJeong,Eric

O'Shaughnessy,andBenPaulos.iiiLand-BasedWindMarketReport:2023EditionAcknowledgmentsFortheirsupportofthisongoingreportseries,theauthorsthanktheentireU.S.DepartmentofEnergy(DOE)WindEnergyTechnologies

Officeteam.In

particular,weacknowledgeGageReberandPatrickGilman.Forreviewingelementsofthisreportorprovidingkeyinput,wealsothank:RichardBowers(U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration);CharlieSmith(EnergySystemsIntegrationGroup);FengZhao(GlobalWindEnergyCouncil);DixieDowning(U.S.InternationalTradeCommission);OwenRoberts(NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory,NREL);AndrewDavid(Silverado);DavidMilborrow(consultant);JohnHensley(AmericanCleanPowerAssociation);MattoxHall(Vestas);EdgarDeMeo(consultant);MattMcCabe(ArcLight);JustinSabrsula,ElizabethChu,andAllisonHolly(Pattern);LawrenceWilley(consultant);GeoffreyKlise(SandiaNationalLaboratories);andPatrickGilman,GageReber,andLizHartman(DOE).Forprovidingdatathatunderlieaspectsofthereport,wethanktheU.S.EnergyInformationAdministration,BloombergNEF,WoodMackenzie,GlobalWindEnergyCouncil,andtheAmericanCleanPowerAssociation.ThanksalsotoDonnaHeimiller(NREL)forassistanceinmappingwindresourcequality;andtoPardeepToorandAlexsandraLemke(NREL),andLizHartmanandWendellGrinton,Jr.(DOE)forassistancewithlayout,formatting,production,and

communications.LawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratory’scontributionstothisreportwerefundedbytheWindEnergyTechnologies

Office,OfficeofEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergyoftheDOEunderContractNo.DE-AC02-05CH11231.Theauthorsaresolelyresponsibleforanyomissionsorerrorscontainedherein.ivLand-BasedWindMarketReport:2023EditionListof

AcronymsACPBPACAISOCODCCACREZDOEEIAAmericanCleanPowerAssociationBonnevillePowerAdministrationCaliforniaIndependentSystemOperatorcommercialoperationdatecommunitychoiceaggregatorcompetitiverenewableenergyzonesU.S.DepartmentofEnergyU.S.EnergyInformationAdministrationElectricReliabilityCouncilofTexasFederalAviationAdministrationFederalEnergyRegulatoryCommissionGeneralElectricCorporationgigawattERCOTFAAFERCGEGWHTSIOUHarmonizedTariffScheduleinvestor-ownedutilityIPPindependentpowerproducerindependentsystemoperatorNewEnglandIndependentSystemOperatorinvestmenttaxcreditISOISO-NEITCkVkilovoltkWkilowattkWhLCOEm2kilowatt-hourlevelizedcostofenergysquaremeterMISOMWMidcontinentIndependentSystemOperatormegawattMWhNRELNYISOO&MOEMPJMPOUPPAmegawatt-hourNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryNewYorkIndependentSystemOperatoroperationsandmaintenanceoriginalequipmentmanufacturerPJMInterconnectionPublicly-ownedutilitypowerpurchaseagreementproductiontaxcreditPTCvLand-BasedWindMarketReport:2023EditionPVphotovoltaicsRECRPSRTOSGRESPPWrenewableenergycertificaterenewablesportfoliostandardregionaltransmissionorganizationSiemensGamesaRenewableEnergySouthwestPowerPoolwattWAPAWECCWesternAreaPowerAdministrationWesternElectricityCoordinatingCouncilviLand-BasedWindMarketReport:2023EditionExecutiveSummaryWindpoweradditionsintheUnitedStatestotaled8.5gigawatts(GW)in2022.1

Windpowergrowthhashistoricallybeensupportedbytheindustry’sprimaryfederalincentive—theproductiontaxcredit(PTC)—aswellasmyriadstate-levelpolicies.Long-termimprovementsinthecostandperformanceofwindpowertechnologieshavealsobeenkeydriversforwindadditions.Nonetheless,2022wasarelativelyslowyearintermsofnewwindpowerdeployment—thelowestsince2018—dueinparttoongoingsupplychainpressures,higherinterestrates,andinterconnectionandsitingchallenges,butalsothereductioninthevalueofthePTCthatwasinplaceupuntilthepassageoftheInflationReductionAct(IRA)inAugust2022.PassageofIRApromisesnewmarketdynamicsforwindpowerdeploymentandsupplychaininvestmentsintheyearsahead.IRAcontainsalong-termextensionofthePTCatfullvalue(assumingthatnewwageandapprenticeshipstandardsaremet)alongwithopportunitiesforwindplantstoearntwo10percentbonuscreditsthataddtothePTCformeetingdomesticcontentrequirementsandforlocatingprojectsinenergycommunities.Amongmanyotherprovisions,IRAalsoincludesnewproduction-basedandinvestment-basedtaxcreditstosupportthebuild-outofdomesticcleanenergymanufacturing.ThoughitistooearlytoseethefullimpactsofIRAinhistoricaldata,IRAhasalreadyimpactedanalystforecastsforfuturewindpowercapacityadditionsandwindindustrysupply-chainannouncements.Keyfindingsfromthisyear’sLand-BasedWindMarketReport—whichprimarilyfocusesonland-based,utility-scalewind—include:InstallationTrends•

TheU.S.added8.5GWofwindpowercapacityin2022,totaling$12billionofinvestment.DevelopmentwasconcentratedintheElectricReliabilityCouncilofTexas(ERCOT)andtheSouthwestPowerPool(SPP).2

Cumulativewindcapacitygrewtomorethan144gigawatts(GW)bytheendof2022.Inaddition,1.7GWofexistingwindplantswerepartiallyrepoweredin2022(thefinal,repoweredcapacityoftheseplantsis1.8GW),mostlybyupgradingrotors(blades)andnacellecomponentslikegearboxesandgenerators.•

WindpowerrepresentedthesecondlargestsourceofU.S.electric-powercapacityadditionsin2022,at22%,behindsolar’s49%.Windpowerconstituted22%ofallgenerationandstoragecapacityadditionsin2022.Overthelastdecade,windrepresented27%oftotalcapacityadditions,andalargerfractionofnewcapacityinSPP(85%),ERCOT(49%),theMidcontinentIndependentSystemOperator(MISO)(47%),andthenon-ISOWest(30%).•

Globally,theUnitedStatesagainrankedsecondinannualwindcapacitybutremainedwellbehindthemarketleadersinwindenergypenetration.Globalwindadditionstotaledover77GWin2022,yieldingacumulative906GW.TheUnitedStatesremainedthesecond-leadingmarketintermsofannualandcumulativecapacity,behindChina.Manycountrieshaveachievedhighwindelectricityshares,withwindsupplying57%ofDenmark’stotalelectricitygenerationin2022andmorethan20%inatotalofeightcountries.IntheUnitedStates,windsuppliedabout10%oftotalgeneration.•

Texasonceagaininstalledthemostwindcapacityofanystatein2022(4,028MW),followedbyOklahoma(1,607MW);twelvestatesexceeded20%windenergypenetration.

Texasalsoremainedtheleaderonacumulativecapacitybasis,

withmorethan40GW.Notably,thewindcapacityinstalledinIowasupplied62%ofallin-stateelectricitygenerationin2022,followedbySouthDakota(55%),1Notethatthisreportseeksto

alignwithAmericanCleanPower

(ACP)

forannualwindcapacityadditionsand

project-levelspecifics,wherepossible.DifferencesinreportingexistbetweenACPandtheEnergyInformationAdministration.2

ThenineregionsmostusedinthisreportaretheSouthwestPowerPool(SPP),ElectricReliabilityCouncilofTexas(ERCOT),MidcontinentIndependentSystemOperator(MISO),CaliforniaIndependentSystemOperator(CAISO),ISONewEngland(ISO-NE),PJMInterconnection(PJM),andNewYorkIndependentSystemOperator(NYISO),

andthenon-ISOWestandSoutheast.viiLand-BasedWindMarketReport:2023EditionKansas(47%),Oklahoma(44%),NorthDakota(37%),NewMexico(35%),andNebraska(31%).Withinindependentsystemoperators(ISOs),windelectricityshares(expressedasapercentageofload)were37.9%inSPP,24.8%inERCOT,14.5%inMISO,8.7%inCaliforniaIndependentSystemOperator(CAISO),4.0%inPJMInterconnection(PJM),3.2%inISONewEngland(ISO-NE),and3.1%inNewYorkIndependentSystemOperator(NYISO).•

Hybridwindplantsthatpairwindwithstorageandotherresourcessawlimitedgrowthin2022,withjustonenewprojectcompleted.

Therewere41hybridwindpowerplantsinoperationattheendof2022,representing2.6GWofwindand0.8GWofco-locatedgenerationorstorageassets.Themostcommonwindhybridprojectcombineswindandstoragetechnology,where1.4GWofwindhasbeenpairedwith0.2GWofbatterystorage.Theaveragestoragedurationoftheseprojectsis0.6hours,suggestingafocusonancillaryservicesandlimitedcapacitytoshiftlargeamountsofenergyacrosstime.Whileonlyonenewwindhybrid—combiningwind,solarphotovoltaics(PV),andstorage—wascommissionedin2022,solarhybridscontinuetoexpandrapidlywith59newPV+storageprojectscomingonlinein2022.•

Arecord-high300GWofwindpowercapacitynowexistsintransmissioninterconnectionqueues,butsolarandstoragearegrowingatamuchmorerapidpace.Attheendof2022,therewere300GWofwindcapacityseekingtransmissioninterconnection,including113GWofoffshorewindand24GWofhybridprojects

(inthelattercase,mostlywindpairedwithstorage).NYISO,the

non-ISOWest,andPJMhadthegreatestquantityofwindintheirqueuesattheendof2022.In2022,90GWofwindcapacityenteredinterconnectionqueues,41%ofwhichwasforoffshorewindplants.Storageandsolarinterconnectionrequestshaveincreasedrapidlyinrecentyears,oftentimespairingsolarwithstorage.IndustryTrends•

Justfourturbinemanufacturers,ledbyGE,suppliedalltheU.S.utility-scalewindpowercapacityinstalledin2022.In2022,GEcaptured58%ofthemarketforturbineinstallations,followedbyVestaswith24%,Nordexwith10%,andSiemens-GamesaRenewableEnergy(SGRE)with8%.3•

Thedomesticwindindustrysupplychainbegan2022indecline,butpassageoftheInflationReductionActhascreatedrenewedoptimismaboutsupply-chainexpansion.Thenumberofwindturbinetowersandnacelles(whichsitontopofthetowerandhousethegearboxandgenerator)thatwecanmanufacturedomesticallyintheUnitedStates

hasheldsteadyorincreasedoverthelastseveralyears.Attheendof2022,domesticcapacitywas15GWperyearfornacelleassemblyand11GWperyearfortowermanufacturing.Blademanufacturingcontinueditsdeclinein2022,withunder4GWperyearofcapabilitybytheendoftheyear.

Morebroadly,manyturbinemanufacturerscontinuedtofacedecliningandevennegativeprofitmarginsin2022.Nonetheless,wind-relatedjobtotalsincreasedby4.5%in2022,to125,580full-timeworkers.Moreover,passageoftheInflationReductionActholdspromiseforaddressingrecentdomesticsupply-chainchallengesandfuelingexpansion:atleastelevennew,re-opened,orexpandedmanufacturingfacilitieshavebeenannouncedinrecentmonths

toservetheland-basedwindmarket,totalingmorethan3,000newjobs.•

Domesticmanufacturingcontentisstrongforsomewindturbinecomponents,buttheU.S.

windindustryremainsreliantonimports.TheUnitedStatesimportswindequipmentfrommanycountries,includingmostprominentlyin2022:Mexico,India,andSpain.Nonetheless,forwindprojectsinstalledin2022,over85%ofnacelleassemblyand70%–85%oftowermanufacturingoccurredintheUnitedStates;inthecaseoftowers,benefittingfromimporttariffs.Forblades,domesticcontentwasjust5–25%in2022,havingplummetedinrecentyears.HowthesetrendschangeafterpassageoftheInflationReductionActremainstobeseen,thoughsupply-chainannouncementsinrecentmonthssuggestaresurgenceindomesticmanufacturing.3

Numericalvaluespresentedhere

andelsewheremaynotaddto100%,duetorounding.viiiLand-BasedWindMarketReport:2023Edition•

Independentpowerproducersownmostwindassetsbuiltin2022,extendinghistoricaltrends.Independentpowerproducers(IPPs)own84%ofthenewwindcapacityinstalledintheUnitedStatesin2022,withtheremainingassets(16%)ownedbyinvestor-ownedutilities.•

Forthefirsttime,non-utilitybuyersenteredintomorecontractstopurchasewindthandidutilitiesin2022.Directretailpurchasersofwind—includingcorporateofftakers—buyelectricityfromatleast44%ofthenewwindcapacityinstalledin2022.This~44%shareexceeds,forthefirsttime,thatofelectricutilities,whoeitherown(16%)orbuyelectricityfrom(17%)windprojects

that,intotal,represent33%ofthenewcapacityinstalledin2022.Merchant/quasi-merchantprojectsandpowermarketersmakeupatleastanother3%and6%,respectively,whiletheremainder(14%)ispresentlyundisclosed.TechnologyTrends•

Turbinecapacity,rotordiameter,andhubheighthaveallincreasedsignificantlyoverthelongterm.Tooptimizeprojectcostandperformance,turbinescontinuetogrowinsize.Theaveragerated(nameplate)capacityofnewlyinstalledwindturbinesintheUnitedStatesin2022was3.2MW,up7%fromthepreviousyearand350%since1998−1999.Theaveragerotordiameterofnewlyinstalledturbineswas131.6meters,a3%increaseover2021and173%over1998−1999,whiletheaveragehubheightwas98.1meters,up4%from2021and73%since1998−1999.•

Turbinesoriginallydesignedforlowerwindspeedsitesdominatethemarket,butthetrendtowardslowerspecificpowerhasreversedinrecentyears.Withgrowthinsweptrotorareaoutpacinggrowthinnameplatecapacity,therehasbeenadeclineintheaverage“specificpower”

4

(inW/m2),from393W/m2

amongprojectsinstalledin1998–1999to233W/m2

amongprojectsinstalledin2022—thoughspecificpowerhasmodestlyincreasedoverthelastthreeyears.Turbineswithlowspecificpowerwereoriginallydesignedforlowerwindspeedsites

butarenowbeingusedatmanysites

asthemostattractivetechnology.•

Windturbinesweredeployedinhigherwind-speedsitesin2022thaninrecentyears.Windturbinesinstalledin2022werelocatedinsiteswithanaverageestimatedlong-termwindspeedof8.3meterspersecondataheightof100metersabovetheground—thehighestsite-averagewindspeedsince2014.FederalAviationAdministration(FAA)andindustrydataonprojectsthatareeitherunderconstructionorindevelopmentsuggestthatthesiteslikelytobebuiltoutoverthenextfewyearswill,onaverage,haveloweraveragewindspeeds.Increasinghubheightswillhelptopartiallyoffsetthistrend,however,enablingturbinestoaccesshigherwindspeedsthanotherwisepossiblewithshortertowers.•

Low-specific-powerturbinesaredeployedonawidespreadbasis;tallertowersareseeingincreaseduseinawidervarietyofsites.Lowspecificpowerturbinescontinuetobedeployedinallregions,andatbothlowerandhigherwindspeedsites.Thetallesttowers(i.e.,thoseabove100meters)arefoundingreaterrelativefrequencyintheupperMidwestandNortheasternregions.•

Windprojectsplannedforthenearfuturearepoisedtocontinuethetrendofever-tallerturbines.Theaverage“tipheight”(fromgroundtobladetipextendeddirectlyoverhead)amongprojectsthatcameonlinein2022is164meters.FAAdatasuggestthatfutureprojectswilldeployeventallerturbines.Among“proposed”turbinesintheFAApermittingprocess,theaveragetipheightreaches

195meters.•

In2022,thirteenwindprojectswerepartiallyrepowered,mostofwhichnowfeaturesignificantlylargerrotorsandlowerspecificpowerratings.Partiallyrepoweredprojectsin2022totaled1.7GWpriortorepowering(1.8GWafter),aslightincreasefromthe1.6

GWofprojectspartiallyrepoweredin2021.Ofthechangesmadetotheturbines,largerrotorsdominated,reducingspecificpowerfrom300to4

Awindturbine’sspecificpoweristheratioofitsnameplatecapacityratingtoitsrotor-sweptarea.All

elseequal,adeclineinspecificpowershouldleadto

anincreaseincapacityfactor.ixLand-BasedWindMarketReport:2023Edition220W/m2.Theprimarymotivationsforpartialrepoweringhavebeentore-qualifyforthePTC,whileatthesametimeincreasingenergyproductionandextendingtheusefullifeoftheprojects.PerformanceTrends•

Theaveragecapacityfactorin2022was36%onafleet-widebasisand37%amongwindplantsbuiltin2021.Theaverage2022capacityfactoramongprojectsbuiltfrom2013to2021was40%,comparedtoanaverageof31%amongallprojectsbuiltfrom2004to2012,and23%amongallprojectsbuiltfrom1998to2003.

Thishaspushedthecumulativefleet-widecapacityfactorhigherovertime,to36%in2022.Theaverage2022capacityfactorforprojectsbuiltin2021was37%,somewhatlowerthanforprojectsbuiltfrom2014to2020.•

Stateandregionalvariationsincapacityfactorsreflectthestrengthofthewindresource;capacityfactorsarehighestinthecentralpartofthecountry.Basedonprojectsbuiltfrom2017to2021,averagecapacityfactorsin2022werehighestincentralstatesandlowerclosertothecoasts.Notsurprisingly,therelativestateandregionalcapacityfactorsareroughlyconsistentwiththerelativequalityofthewindresourceineachregion.•

Turbinedesignandsitecharacteristicsinfluenceperformance,withdecliningspecificpowerleadingtosizableincreasesincapacityfactoroverthelongterm.Thedeclineinspecificpoweroverthelasttwodecadeshasbeenamajorcontributortohighercapacityfactors,buthasbeenoffsetinpartbyatendencytowardbuildingprojectsatsiteswithlowerannualaveragewindspeeds.Asaresult,averagecapacityfactorshavebeenrelativelystableamongprojectsbuiltoverthelastnineyears,withsomeevidenceofmodestdeclinesamongpost-2018vintageprojectsasspecificpowerhas

driftedupwardsinthemostrecentseveralyearsandsitequalityhasdecreasedsomewhat.•

Windpowercurtailmentin2022acrosssevenregionsaveraged5.3%,upfrom

alowof2.1%in2016.AcrossallISOs,windenergycurtailmentin2022stoodat5.3%—generallyrisingoverthelastsixyears.Thisaveragemasksvariationacrossregions

andprojects:SPP(9.2%),ERCOT(4.7%),MISO(4.4%),andNYISO(3.2%)experiencedthehighestratesofwindcurtailmentin2022,whiletheotherthreeISOswereeachatlessthan2%.•

2022wasanabove-averagewindresourceyearacrossmostofthecountry.Thestrengthofthewindresourcevariesfromyeartoyear;moreover,thedegreeofinter-annualvariationdiffersfromsitetosite(and,hence,alsoregiontoregion).Thistemporalandspatialvariation

impactsprojectperformancefromyeartoyear.In2022,thenationalwindindexstoodat1.06,itshighestlevelsince2014,asmostregionsexperiencedanabove-averagewindyear(thenon-ISOWestexcepted).•

Windprojectperformancedegradationalsoexplainswhyolderprojectsdidnotperformaswellin2022.Capacityfactordatasuggestperformancedeclinewithprojectage,thoughperhapsmostlyonceprojectsagebeyond10years.Theapparentdeclineincapacityfactorsasprojectsprogressintotheirseconddecadepartiallyexplainswhyolderprojects—e.g.,thosebuiltfrom1998to2003—didnotperformaswellasnewerprojectsin2022.CostTrends•

Windturbinepricescontinuedtoincreasein2022,reachingroughly$1,000/kW.Windturbinepricesdeclinedby50%between2008and2020.However,recentsupplychainpressuresandelevatedcommoditypriceshaveledtoincreasedturbineprices.Dataindicaterecentaveragepricingintherangeof$900/kWto$1,200/kW5,alevelroughlysimilartothatlastseenin2017and2018andupfromarangeof$800-$1,000/kWfor2019–2021.•

Surprisingly,averageinstalledprojectcostsamongoursmallsampleof2022projectsdidnotfollowturbinepriceshigher.Afterfouryearsofrelativelystablecostsof~$1600/kWfrom20185Allcostfigurespresentedinthereportaredenominatedinreal2022dollars.xLand-BasedWindMarketReport:2023Editionthrough2021,thesurprisingdropinthecapacity-weightedaverageinstalledcostin2022—to$1,370/kW—ispartlyattributabletotheoutsizedinfluenceofasinglelargeprojectinourrelativelysmall2022plantsampleandtotheconcentrationofwinddeploymentin2022inthelow-costregionsofSPPandERCOT.The2022capacity-weightedaveragemaychangeasmoredatabecomeavailableovertime.•

Recentinstalledcostsdifferbyregion.Thelowest-costprojectsinrecentyearshavebeeninERCOT(averaging$1360/kW)andSPP($1470/kW),whileMISOprojectshaveaveraged$1730/kW.

Again,samplesizein2022(and,toalesserextent,in2021)isabnormallylow,andtheseaveragesmaychangeasmoredatabecomeavailable.•

Installedcosts(permegawatt)generallydeclinewithprojectsize;arelowestforprojectsover200MW.Installedcostsexhibiteconomiesofscale,withcostsdecliningasprojectcapacity

increases.•

Operationsandmaintenancecostsvariedbyprojectageandcommercialoperationsdate.

Despitelimiteddata,projectsinstalledoverthepast16yearshave,onaverage,incurredloweroperationsandmaintenance(O&M)coststhanolderprojects.ThedataalsosuggestthatO&Mcoststendtoincreaseasprojectsage,atleastfortheolderprojectsinthesample.PowerSalesPriceandLevelizedCostTrends•

Windpowerpurchaseagreementpriceshavebeendriftinghighersinceabout2018,witharecentrangefrombelow$20/MWhtomorethan$40/MWh.ThecombinationofdecliningcapitalandoperatingcostsandimprovedperformancedrovewindPPApricestoall-timelowsthrough2018,thoughpriceshavesincestabilizedandthenincreased—inpartduetosupply-chainandotherinflationarypressures.Thoughoursamplesizeinthelastyearortwoisrelativelysmall,recentpricingappearstobearound$20/MWhintheCentralregionofthecountry,abithigherintheWest(rangingfrom$20/MWhto$40/MWh),andhigherstillintheEast(~$50/MWh).•

LevelTenEnergy’sPPApriceindicesconfirmrisingPPApricesandregional

variation.IncontrasttothePPAssummarizedabove,whichprincipallyinvolveutilitypurchasers,LevelTenEnergyprovidesanindexofPPAoffersmadetolarge,end-usecustomers.ThesedataalsoshowthatpriceshaverisenoverthelastcoupleofyearsandvarybyISO.Amongregionsreportingdata,CAISOfeaturesthehighestpricing(~$60/MWhinthethirdquarterof2022onceconvertedtolevelized2022dollarterms);thelowestpricesarefoundinSPPandERCOT(~$33/MWhin2022dollars).Inrealdollarterms,LevelTen’sreportedpricetrendssince2018aresimilartothereal-dollardenominatedPPAtrendsdescribedinthepriorsection.•

Amongarelativelysmallsampleofprojectsbuiltin2022,the(unsubsidized)averagelevelizedcostofwindenergyhasfallento

around$32/MWh.

Trendsinthelevelizedcostofenergy(LCOE)followPPAtrends,atleastoverthe

longterm.Wind’sLCOEdecreasedfrom1998to2005,rosethrough2009-2011,declinedthrough2018,buthasremainedsteadyoverthelastseveralyears.ThenationalaverageLCOEamongasmallsampleof

projectsbuiltin2022—excludingthe

PTC—was$32/MWh.Thisaverageisimpactedbytheconcentrationofprojectsinstalledin2022inthewindy,low-costregionsofERCOTandSPP.Asmoredatabecomeavailable,theaverageLCOEamong2022(and2021)windplantscouldberevised.•

Levelizedcostsvarybyregion,withthelowestcostsinSPP