有关汇率信息

ExchangerateForexandexchangerateTheFOREXmarketiswherecurrenciesaretraded.Anexchangerateisthepriceofonecurrencyexpressedintermsofanother.Forexample,onTuesday,December18,2007,thepriceofRMBintermsofUSDwasapproximately:

1CNY=0.135302USDor1USD=7.3909CNY

NominalexchangerateItisthequotedforeignexchangerate:

thevalueofacountry'scurrencyinrelationtoothercurrencieswithoutadjustmentfortherateofinflation

IttellshowmuchforeigncurrencycanbeexchangedforaunitofdomesticcurrencyRealexchangeRateRealexchangerateisthenominalexchangerateadjustedbytheratioofforeignpricelevel(Pf)tothedomesticpricelevel(Pd).Itcanbeshownas:RER=e*Pf/PdIfeisexpressedasdomesticcurrency/foreigncurrency

OrRER=Pd/e*PdIfeisexpressedasforeigncurrency/domesticcurrencythedollar-Euroexchangerateis$1.36/1EUOTobuyabigMac,ifEurope’spriceis2.5euros,andtheU.S.priceis$3.40ThenRER=(1.36)*(2.5)/3.4=1,ItmeansthebigMacwouldcostthesameintheU.S.asin,Europe,whenthepriceisexpressedinacommoncurrency.RealexchangeRateContinuethedollar-Euroexchangerateis$1.36/1EUOHowever,ifthepriceinEuropeis3Euros,andtheU.S.priceisstill$3.4thenRER=(1.36)*(3)/3.4=1.2wesaythattheEurois20%overvaluedrelativetothedollar,therewillbepressureonthenominalexchangeratetoadjust,becausethesamegoodcanbepurchasedmorecheaplyinonecountrythaninanother.PurchasingPowerParitywhentherealexchangerateequal1,economistsaystheabsolutepurchasingpowerparityholdsPurchasingpowerparity(PPP)isatheorywhichstatesthatexchangeratesbetweencurrenciesareinequilibriumwhentheirpurchasingpowerofthecurrenciesarethesameineachofthetwocountries.Thismeansthattheexchangeratebetweentwocountriesshouldequaltheratioofthetwocountries'pricelevelofafixedcommonbasketofgoodsandservices.PurchasingPowerParityForexample,aparticularTVsetthatsellsfor750CanadianDollars[CAD]inCanadashouldcost500USDollars[USD]intheU.S.whentheexchangeratebetweenCanadaandtheUSis1.50CAD/USD.1.5CAD=1USD750CAD=500USDThebasisforPPPisthe"lawofoneprice".Intheabsenceoftransportationandothertransactioncosts,competitivemarketswillequalizethepriceofanidenticalgoodintwocountrieswhenthepricesareexpressedinthesamecurrency.PurchasingpowerparityExercise:ThepriceofNokiaN810intheU.S.is$480,andthepriceinChinais¥3837.IfthePPPtheoryhold,whatshouldbetheexchangerateforDollar-Yuan?Theexchangeratecurrentlyis$0.140647/1¥paretotheE-RbasedonthePPPtheory,IstheRMBovervaluedorundervalued?MeasuringtheExchangeRateBi-lateralexchangerateThisistheexchangeratebetweentwocountries.E.g.CNY/USDAUD/USDEURO/JAPUSD/GBPMeasuringtheExchangeRateWhenweassessacurrencybeingstrongorweak,theproblemisthatacurrency’sexchangeratemayriseagainstsomecurrencies,andfallagainstsomeothercurrencies.Inordertogiveanoverallpictureofitsfluctuation,itisbesttolookataweightedaverageexchangerateagainstallothercurrencyMeasuringtheExchangeRateWeightedexchangerateisacurrency’saveragevalueagainstabasketofcurrencies.TheweightgiventoeachcurrencydependsontheproportionoftradedonewiththatcountryGiveanindicationoftheoverall‘strength’or‘weakness’ofacountry’scurrencyininternationalmarketMeasuringtheExchangeRateDeterminationofExchangerateFloatingexchangerate—exchangeratedeterminedonlybydemandandsupplyofthecurrency,nogovernmentorcentralbankintervention.Fixedexchangerate—thevalueofthecurrencyfixedorpeggedinrelationtoananchorcurrency,notallowedtofluctuate.Managedexchangerate—usuallymeanthattheexchangerateisallowedtofluctuatewithinabandwiththeregulargovernmentorcentralbankintervention(buy/sell).FixedExchangeRateIfthereisashortageofthecurrencyintheForexmarket,thegovernmentwillincreasethesupplyofthecurrencyandcovertheshortagebybuyingbackforeigncurrency,foreignreservesaccumulated.USD/CNYQtyofCNYperweekE-R1SS’DShortageGov.sellthecurrency,accumulateforeignreservesFixedExchangeRateIfthereisasurplusofthecurrencyintheForexmarket,thecentralbankwillbuythesurplusbackbyusingtheforeignreservestopreventtheexchangeratefall(thecurrencydepreciate)USD/CNYQtyofCNYperweekE-R1DSD’surplusGov.buythesurpluswithitsforeignreservesAdvantagesoffixedexchangerateCertainty.Thereisapossibilityofimportedinflation.Preventsgovernmentspursuing“irresponsible”macroeconomicpolicies.Advantagesoffixedexchangerate1.Certainty.withfixedexchangerate,internationaltradeandinvestmentemuchlessrisky,sinceprofitsarenotaffectedbymovementsintheexchangerateAdvantagesoffixedexchangerateLittleornospeculation.Providedtherateisabsolutelyfixed–andpeoplebelievethatitwillremainso-thereisnopointinspeculating(becausenofluctuatingofE-R,nomoneymakingopportunitiesinbuyandsellofacurrency)ifthecountryhasahealthbalanceofpayment.(thereisnoBOPdisequilibrium—nobigsurplusorbigdeficit)Advantagesoffixedexchangerate3.Preventsgovernmentspursuing“irresponsible”macroeconomicpolicies.Governmentneedastoreofforeignreservestofixtheexchangerate,andthentheywon’twantpolicieswhichwillcausebigdeficitintheBOP,sothegovernmentwilltrytokeeptherateofinflationofthecountryroughlytotheworldlevels.DisadvantagesoffixedexchangerateThegovernmentneedstoholdlargeamountsofforeignreserves.Thereisapossibilityofimportedinflation.Exchangeratepolicymayconflictwiththeinterests(benefit)ofdomesticbusinessandtheeconomyasawhole.DisadvantagesoffixedexchangerateThegovernmentneedstoholdlargeamountsofforeignreserves.

IfthereisasurplusofthecurrencyintheForexmarket(adeficitinthecountry’sBOP),thegovernmentneedtouseforeignreservestobuythesurplusbacktomaintaintheexchangerate.Disadvantagesoffixedexchangerate2.Thereisapossibilityofimportedinflation.

Becausetheexchangerateisfixed,andifthereisainflationintradepartners,itwillcauseallimportedproductsincludingcomponents,rawmaterials,andfinalgoodsincreaseinprice,cost-pushinflationoccur.DisadvantagesoffixedexchangerateExchangeratepolicymayconflictwiththeinterests(benefit)ofdomesticbusinessandtheeconomyasawhole.E.g..Ifacountryhasaseveredeficit,thegovernmentmayneedtoincreaseinterestratetocuretheproblem,atthesametime,thispolicywilldiscouragethedomesticinvestment,andslowdowntheeconomyinthelongrun.FloatingExchangerateSupplyofthecurrencyincrease,ordemandforthecurrencydecreasewillcausetheexchangeratedecrease,orwesaythecurrencydepreciate;supplydecreaseorthedemandincrease,theexchangeratewillincrease,orwesaythecurrencyappreciate.USD/CNYQtyofCNYperweekE-R2E-R1S1S2D1D2USD/CNYE-R1E-R2S1S2D1D2QtyofCNYperweekCurrencydepreciateCurrencyappreciateCurrencydemandchangeChangeincreditentrancereflectdemandchangeExportgoodsandservicesCurrenttransferineflowinCapitaltransferinInvestmentinLoansinCentralbankbuyIncreaseinthesesectionreflectsincreasethedemandofthecurrency.SD0QtyofCADperweekUSD/CADD1D2Er0Er1Er2CurrencysupplychangechangeinthedebitentranceofthebalanceofpaymentreflectscurrencysupplychangeItincludesincrease/decreasein:ImportofgoodsandservicesCurrenttransferouteoutflowCapitaltransferoutDirectorportfolioinvestmentoutLoansoutCentralbankdirectsellIncreaseintheseentrancereflectstheIncreasethesupplyofthemoney.SS1S2ErEr1Er2USD/CADQtyofCADinaweekHowwilldemandandsupplyofcurrencyincrease/decreaseInshortrun,thefollowingarethemajorpossiblecausesofchangeincurrencydemandandsupplyDomesticinterestratechange.

Theinterestrateincrease,willincreasethedemandofthecurrency(moredepositsinthecurrencytoearnhigherinterest),andsupplywilldecrease(localpeoplesavemore,buylessimportedgoods,foreignersdemandlessloans,thenlesssupply).Inflationratecomparetoothercountry.

Iftheinflationishigherthantradingcountries,therewillbelessexports,andmoreimports,demandofthecurrencydecrease,andsupplyincrease.Speculation.Ifspeculatorsbelievethatthecurrencyisabouttofall,thensuddenlythesupplyofthecurrencyincrease.Howwilldemandandsupplyincrease/decreaseInthelongrun,thesupplyanddemandofacurrencydependson:Relativeinvestmentprospectsinthecountryandoutside.Iftheinvestmentprospectsinothercountriesarebrighter,thesupplythecurrencyincrease,anddemanddecrease.EconomicgrowthinthecountryandoutsideIfthedomesticerise,therewillbemoreimports,supplyofthecurrencyincrease.Ifothercountries’efall,theywilldemandlessexportsofthecountry,demandofcurrencyfallTheinternationalcompetitivenessofthecountryMorecompetitiveofthecountry’sindustryleadtomoreexport,anddemandincrease.MajorCausesofExchangeRateFluctuationCausesofexchangeratefluctuationinshortrun:InflationrateInterestrateSpeculationCausesofexchangeratefluctuationinlongrun:Relativeinvestmentprospectsinthecountryandoutside.TheeconomicgrowthinacountryTheinternationalcompetitivenessinacountryAdvantagesofafree-floatingexchangerateAutomaticcorrection.Balanceofpaymentdisequilibriaareautomaticallyandinstantaneouslycorrectedwithouttheneedforspecificgovernmentpolicies.Noneedtoholdlargeamountsofforeignreserves.SincethegovernmentisnotgoingtointerveneintheForexmarket,theexchangeratewilljustgoesupordownaccordingtothechangeinthedemandandsupplyofthecurrency.Lessriskofimportedinflation.IFthereisinflationintradingpartners,thecurrenciesinthosecountrywilldepreciategradually,andthiswilloffsettheeffectofthepriceincreaseintradingpartners.Disadvantagesofafree-floatingexchangerate1.Uncertaintyfortradersandinvestors.

Theuncertaintycausedbycurrencyfluctuationcandiscourageinternationaltradeandinvestment.2.Speculation.Theexchangeratewillchangeaccordingtocountry’schangeinpolicy,