Devinit-英国削减援助三年：官方发展援助在哪里受到的打击最大

November2023

ThreeyearsofUKaidcuts:

wherehasODA

beenhit

hardest?

factsheet

ThreeyearsofUKaidcuts:wherehasODAbeenhithardest?/

2

Contents

Introduction 3

Keyfacts 4

Outofallsectors,in-donorrefugeecostssawthelargestincreaseinaidin2022 5

IncreasinginitialaccommodationandUkraine-relatedfinancingneedsledtoasharprise

inrefugeecosts 7

Asidefromin-donorrefugeecosts,aidtowardsallothersectorshasdeclinedsince2019

9

Whiledomesticspendinghasrisen,aidtowardstheworld’spoorestcountrieshas

decreased 11

ThecountriesthatrelyheavilyonUKaidhavebeenmostimpactedbyODAcuts 13

Conclusion 16

Acknowledgements 17

ThreeyearsofUKaidcuts:wherehasODAbeenhithardest?/

3

Introduction

ThisfactsheetanalysesseveralmajortrendsintheUnitedKingdom’sallocationofofficialdevelopmentassistance(ODA)between2018and2022.UKODAhassteadilydeclinedsince2019,inpartduetothegovernment'stemporary

self-imposedreduction

inaid

spendingfrom0.7%to0.5%ofgrossnationalincome(GNI)followingthepandemic.

Alongsidethisreduction,certainareasofaidhaveexperiencedsubstantialincreasesin

recentyears,whileseveralothershavedeclined.2022sawalargeincreaseinrefugee

costs,drivenbothbyRussia’sinvasionofUkraine,aswellasthehighcostsofhosting

asylumseekersintemporaryaccommodation.Thegovernment’sinclusionofthesecostsunderthereducedaidbudget(0.51%ofGNIin2022)impliesthatlessfinancewas

subsequentlyavailableforworld’spoorestcountries.However,themostrecentFCDO

report–alongwith

forecasts

thatUKGNIwillincreasesteadilyincomingyears–suggestthatthecutstotheUKaidbudgetinrecentyearsarelargelybehindus.Thisfactsheet

thusreviewstheextentofthecutsbetween2019and2022,usingtheUK’srecentdatareleasetodelvedeeperintotheimpactsbycountryandsector.

Aboutthedatainthispaper

Theanalysisinthisfactsheetisbasedoffthe

StatisticsonInternational

Development:FinalUKAidSpend2022report

whichwaspublishedbyForeign,

Commonwealth&DevelopmentOffice(FCDO)inSeptember.ThisreportprovidesthefinalfiguresforODAdatain2022,updatingthe

previousrelease

earlierthisyearbyaddingdetailssuchasrecipient-specificdata.

AllUnitedKingdomfiguresarebasedonFCDOdata,andthusareshowninGBP(currentprices,2022).WhenUKflowsarecomparedwithotherdonorcountries,

USD(constantprices,2021)areusedasthesefiguresarebasedonthe

OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD)CreditorReportingSystemgrant-equivalentdata.

Inthisfactsheet,weestimatetheUK’sshareoftotalODAreceivedbyrecipientcountries.Asthe2022figuresforODAreceivedbyeligiblecountriesfromotherprovidersisunavailableatthetimeofthisanalysis,weassumethatODAfromotherprovidersisunchangedrelativeto2021.

ThreeyearsofUKaidcuts:wherehasODAbeenhithardest?/

4

Keyfacts

•In-donorrefugeecostswerethelargestcomponentofUKODAin2022,

accountingforapproximately30%oftotalaidafterincreasingaroundthreefoldsince2021

(Figure1)

.

•Therapidincreaseinin-donorrefugeecostsfrom2021onwardswasdriven

primarilybyasurgeininitialaccommodationcostsandUkraine-relatedprojects(Figure2).

•Whilerefugeecostshaverisennearlyeightfold,everyotherODAsectorhasexperiencedadecreaseinrealvolumesince2019

(Figure3)

.

•UKODAtoLDCs,LMICsandUMICshasseenanoveralldecreasesince2019,fallingby55%,49%and49%respectively

(Figure4)

.

•TheUKhasreduceditsbilateralaidtowardsmostrecipientcountries,including

recipientswhichpreviouslyreceivedsignificantsharesoftheiraidfromtheUK

(Figure5)

.

•ODArecipientcountriesthatpreviouslyreceivedsignificantbilateralaid

disbursementsfromtheUKhavesubsequentlyseenlargedeclinesfollowingthedropinUKODA.

(Figure6)

.

ThreeyearsofUKaidcuts:wherehasODAbeenhithardest?/

5

billionsofGBP

1.05bn

(9.2%)

3.69bn

(28.8%)

14.70bn

(96.9%)

13.85bn

(95.7%)

10.37bn

(90.8%)

9.10bn

(71.2%)

Outofallsectors,in-donorrefugeecostssawthe

largestincreaseinaidin2022

Figure1:Asidefromin-donorrefugeecosts,allothersectorsdecreasedrelativeto2021

UnitedKingdomin-donorrefugeecostsandtotalODA,2019-2022

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

0.48bn0.63bn

(4.3%)

(3.1%)

2019202020212022

TotalIn-DonorRefugeeCosts

AllSectors

(excludingIn-DonorRefugeeCosts)

Source:DevelopmentInitiativesbasedonForeign,Commonwealth&DevelopmentOffice(FCDO)data,September2023.

Notes:ODA=officialdevelopmentassistance.

ThreeyearsofUKaidcuts:wherehasODAbeenhithardest?/

6

•Between2021and2022,totalUKODAincreasedfrom£11.4billionto£12.8

billion.Thisrepresentedanincreaseof0.5%to0.51%ofGNI,£270millionmorethaniftheUKhadstucktoits0.5%ofGNItarget.However,thisadditional

fundingwassignificantlylessthantheincreaseinin-donorrefugeecosts.

•In-donorrefugeecostsincreasedbyroughly250%between2021and2022,from£1.05billionto£3.69billion.Thisincreasewasprimarilydrivenbyasharpriseinflowstowardsinitialaccommodationforhousingasylumseekers.

•In-donorrefugeecostswerethelargestcomponentofUKaidin2022,accountingfor28.8%oftotalODA.

•Withinthein-donorrefugeecostspurposecode,57%ofODAwasallocatedforfoodandshelter,adecreasefromtheconsistent~75%itaccountedforin

previousyears,largelyduetotheincreaseinflowstaggedas‘non-sector

allocable’.1ThemostsignificantprojectsunderthistagwereresettlementandhomeschemesforUkrainianandAfghanasylumseekers.

1Thisislabelledassectorpurposecode93010andreferstoflowswhichcannotbecategorisedintoexistingsub-sectors.

ThreeyearsofUKaidcuts:wherehasODAbeenhithardest?/

7

millionsofGBP

Increasinginitial

accommodationand

Ukraine-relatedfinancing

needsledtoasharprisein

refugeecosts

Figure2:ThesharpriseinrefugeecostswasdrivenbyincreasesininitialaccommodationandUkraine-relatedfinancingneeds

BreakdownofUKODAin-donorrefugeecosts,2019-2022

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

1,047m

1,859m

41m

583m

283m

224m

244m

207m

190m

138m

2019202020212022

TotalUkraineprojects

InitialAccommodation

Other

TotalAfghanistanprojects

RefugeeSupport-

UnaccompaniedAsylum-SeekingChildren(UASCs)

RefugeeSupport-Adults&Families

ODAManagement/

ContractedServices

ThreeyearsofUKaidcuts:wherehasODAbeenhithardest?/

8

Source:DevelopmentInitiativesbasedonForeign,Commonwealth&DevelopmentOffice(FCDO)data,September2023.

Notes:ODA=officialdevelopmentassistance.TotalUkraineprojectsincludesallin-donorrefugeecostswiththeword‘Ukraine’intheprojecttitleandconsistsofflowsunderthefollowingprojecttitlesaslistedtheFCDO:childbenefitassistanceforUkrainerefugeesfleeingconflictinUkraine,HomesforUkraine,HomesforUkraine–educationfunding(22–23FY),HomesforUkrainescheme,Ukraineextensionscheme,Ukrainefamiliesvisascheme,UkraineFamilyScheme,UkraineExtensionScheme,HomesforUkraineScheme.TotalAfghanistan

projectsconsistsofflowsundertheprojecttitlesaslistedbytheFCDO:Afghancitizensresettlementscheme

(ACRS),Afghanresettlementscheme–ACRSelement,Afghanistancitizenshealthcarecostsinbridging

accommodationandchildbenefitassistanceforAfghanrefugeesfleeingconflictinAfghanistan.‘Other’consistsofremainingprojecttitlesunderrefugeesindonorcountries(broadsectorcode930).

•Initialaccommodationforasylumseekersaccountedfor£1.86billionin2022–50%ofallin-donorrefugeecosts(IDRC)and15%oftotalODA.Thiswasan

increaseofmorethan300%from2021andwasspentprimarilyonhotelsfor

asylumseekerstostayinstemporarily.

•Asstatedina

previousDIblog,

theincreaseinthenumberofasylumseekersdidcontribute–albeitnotsignificantly–tothejumpinIDRCbuttheprimarydriverfortheincreasewasincreasedspendingoninitialaccommodation.The

Statisticson

InternationalDevelopmentFinalAidSpend2022report

confirmsthatthe

increasewasdrivenbyhigheraccommodationspending,aswellastemporaryprotectionvisaschemesforUkrainians.

•Thesecondhighestallocationin2022wastowardsUkraine-specificprojects,

whichaccountedfor28%(£1.05billion)ofin-donorrefugeecostsin2022.TheseprojectswereintroducedinresponsetothewarinUkrainetoaccommodate

asylumseekers.ExcludingUkraine-specificcosts,in-donorrefugeecostswouldstillhavemorethandoubled.

•ThethirdhighestallocationwastowardsAfghanistan-specificprojects,another

newallocationin2022.Theseprojectsaccountedfor6%(£207million)oftotalin-donorrefugeecosts.

•BesidesinitialaccommodationandUkraine-basedprojects,theremainderofin-

donorrefugeeallocationsin2022wereprimarilychannelledtoseveralsmaller

projectshavehistoricallybeennestledunderthispurposecode,includingrefugeesupportwhichaccountedfor6%ofIDRC(£242milliontotal)andODA

managementat1%(£52milliontotal).

ThreeyearsofUKaidcuts:wherehasODAbeenhithardest?/

9

Asidefromin-donor

refugeecosts,aidtowardsallothersectorshas

declinedsince2019

Figure3:In-donorrefugeecostsaretheonlysubsetofUKODAtohaveincreasedsince2019

ChangesinvolumeofUKODAbysector,2019-2022

Unallocated/UnspecifiedRefugeesinDonorCountries

HumanitarianAid

Health

Other GovernmentandCivilSociety AdministrativeCostsofDonorsEconomicInfrastructureandServices

Education

ProductionSectors

OtherSocialInfrastructureandServices

WaterSupplyandSanitation

Growthfrom2019Reductionfrom2019

billionsofGBP

0123456

Source:DevelopmentInitiativesbasedonForeign,Commonwealth&DevelopmentOffice(FCDO)data,September2023.

Notes:ODA=officialdevelopmentassistance.

ThreeyearsofUKaidcuts:wherehasODAbeenhithardest?/

10

•Since2019,fundingtowardsin-donorrefugeecostshaveexperienceda

disproportionateincreaseinUKODA,whileeveryothersectorhasexperiencedagradualdecrease.

•Severalsectorscoveringbasicneedshaveseensignificantdecreasesinfunding.AreassuchasEducationandWaterSupply&Sanitationhavedecreasedby56%(from£789millionto£344million)and74%(from£176millionto£46million)

respectively.

•Healthcarehasalsoseenasteepdecreaseinfundinginrecentyearsandhas

fallenby32%since2019(from£1.43billionto£976million).Whenexcluding

allocationstowardsCovid-19control,thatfigureisevenlower,cominginat£742millionin2022.

•BywayofillustratingtheimbalanceinUKODAtodifferentsectors,in-donorrefugeecostshaverisenby673%overthesameperiod.

•Despitethedownwardtrendinaidtomostsectorsfrom2019onwards,sixoutofthe14listedsectorsexperiencedanincreaseinthevolumeofaidbetween2021and2022.

•Besidesin-donorrefugeecosts,themostsignificantofthesesectoralincreasesin2022wasHumanitarianAid,whichincreasedfrom£743millionto£1.1billion,largelyduetoallocationstoUkraine.Whilethisisasignificantincreaseand

representsapositivechangeforUKaid,ithasnotreversedthesector’soveralldownwardstrendsince2019.

•WhiletheUKslightlyexceededitsaidtargetof0.5%ofGNIin2022,thetotalamountwasfarbelowtheincreaseinin-donorrefugeecosts.Thedecisionto

countsuchcostsundertheODAbudgetmeantthattherewaslessmoney

availableforothersectors.Asoutlinedina

previousDIblog,

thisispartly

becausetheHomeOfficehaslessincentivetotrytocontrolandallocatecostsefficientlyastheseflowswillnotcounttowardsanyofitsprogrammes.

Consequently,refugeecostsmayhaveabsorbedmuchoftheFCDO’saidbudget,squeezingothersectorsunderthe0.51%ofGNIaidbudget.

ThreeyearsofUKaidcuts:wherehasODAbeenhithardest?/

11

billionsofGBP

Whiledomesticspendinghasrisen,aidtowardstheworld’spoorestcountrieshasdecreased

Figure4:UKODAtoLDCsand/orLICs,LMICsandUMICshasdecreasedsince2021

UKODAbyincomegroup,2019-2022

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

0.69bn

1.49bn

0.68bn

1.16bn

0.35bn

0.56bn

2.81bn

2.39bn

0.81bn

0.75bn

1.43bn

1.26bn

UMICs

LMICs

LDCsand/orLICs

2019202020212022

Source:DevelopmentInitiativesbasedonForeign,Commonwealth&DevelopmentOffice(FCDO)data,September2023.

Notes:ODA=officialdevelopmentassistance;LDC=leastdevelopedcountry;LIC=low-incomecountry;LMIC=lower-middle-incomecountry;UMIC=upper-middle-incomecountry.Flowsunallocatedbyincomegroupareexcludedfromthischart.LDCsandLICsaregroupedtogethertodistinguishthatsomeLICsarenotclassified

asLDCs.

ThreeyearsofUKaidcuts:wherehasODAbeenhithardest?/

12

•Since2019,therealvolumeofUKODAhasdecreasedforallODA-eligibleincomegroups.

•Lower-andmiddle-incomecountrieshaveexperiencedsimilardecreasesinthe

volumeofaidreceivedfromtheUK.Since2019,leastdevelopedcountries

(LDCs)and/orlow-incomecountries(LICs)haveseena55%reductioninUK

ODA(from£2.81billionto£1.26billion).Atthesametime,UKODAtolower-

middle-incomecountries(LMICs)andupper-middle-incomecountries(UMICs)

hasfallenbyaround49%:from£1.49billionto£752millionandfrom£690millionto£350millionrespectively.

•Consequently,theshareofODAtoLICshasfallen.In2019,flowstoLDCs

and/orLICsaccountedforroughly19%oftotalUKODA,whereasin2022itwasjust10%.

•In2022,totalUKODAdisbursementsdecreasedforalmosteveryLDCand/orLIC,withthemostnotableexceptionbeingAfghanistan.Thisrepresentsa

continuationintheoveralldeclineinflowstoLICsfrom2019onwards.

ThreeyearsofUKaidcuts:wherehasODAbeenhithardest?/

13

ThecountriesthatrelyheavilyonUKaidhavebeenmostimpactedbyODAcuts

Figure5:Ofthe13countrieswhichreceivedthelargestmeanshareofUKbilateralaidin2019,mosthaveexperiencedadecreaseinUKODAofmorethan50%

ChangesinthevolumeofUKODAtoselectrecipientcountries,2019-2022

Growthfrom2019Reductionfrom2019

millionsofGBP

AfghanistanNigeria

Somalia

Ethiopia

SouthSudan

Pakistan

Zimbabwe

Nepal

SierraLeone

Malawi

Gambia

Malaysia

Jamaica

050100150200250300350

400

ThreeyearsofUKaidcuts:wherehasODAbeenhithardest?/

14

Figure6:11ofthe13countriesthatreceivedthelargestmeanshareofUKbilateralaidasaproportionoftotalODAin2019haveseenadecreaseinthatshare

ChangesintheshareofUKODAaspartoftotalODAfromofficialdonorstoselectrecipientcountries,2019–2022

Growthfrom2019Reductionfrom2019

GambiaSierraLeoneAfghanistan Jamaica Nigeria Pakistan Zimbabwe Nepal Malaysia SomaliaSouthSudan MalawiEthiopia

0%5%10%15%20%25%30%

35%

Source:DevelopmentInitiativesbasedonForeign,Commonwealth&DevelopmentOffice(FCDO)andOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD)data,September2023.

Notes:ODA=officialdevelopmentassistance.Countriesareorderedbyvolume(Figure5)andshare(Figure6)ofreceivedbilateralODAfromtheUKin2022.ODAdatafor2022isnotyetavailableforotherrecipient

countries.Wethusassumethatthetotalreceivedaidisunchangedfrom2021.TherecipientcountriesshowninthesechartsreceivedthelargestmeanshareofUKbilateralODAasashareoftotalODAfromofficialdonors

from2018–2022.

•Since2021,totalUKODAdisbursementshavedecreasedforalmosteveryleastdevelopedcountry(LDC)withthemostnotableexceptionbeingAfghanistan.

Thiscontinuestheoveralldeclineinflowstolower-incomecountriesfrom2019onwards.Ofthe13countriesforwhichtheUK’saidwasthemostsignificant

(measuredbytheshareofUK’saidintotalaidreceivedsince2018),11sawadecreaseinthevolumeofaidreceivedfromtheUKbetween2019and2022.

ThreeyearsofUKaidcuts:wherehasODAbeenhithardest?/

15

•PakistanhasexperiencedthelargestrealdecreaseinUKaid,from£305millionin2019tojust£56millionin2022.ThisrepresentsadropintheUK’sshareof

totalaidreceivedbyPakistanfrom13%in2019toourestimateof2%in2022.

Overthepastdecade,boththeUKandtheUShavetogetheraccountedfor

around50–70%ofallbilateralaidtoPakistan.Decliningflowsfrombothdonors

havecontributedtoPakistan’stotalreceivedbilateralaidroughlyhalvingbetween2019and2021.

•In2018,aidfromtheUKaccountedfor45%oftotalbilateralaidreceivedbySierraLeone.In2021,thissharedecreasedto32%,contributingtothetotalbilateralODAreceivedbythecountrydecreasingbyroughlyathird.

•CountriessuchasNigeria,SouthSudanandZimbabwe–whichpreviously

receivedsubstantialsharesoftheirtotalbilateralaidfromtheUK–havebeenmostimpactedbythesecuts.In2019,UKbilateralODAaccountedforroughly20–23%oftotalreceivedbilateralaidforeachofthesecountries.Whiledataisnotyetavailablefor2022,ifthetotalamountofODAtothesecountriesremainsunchanged,theUK’ssharewillhavefallentoroughly6–8%foreachrecipient.

•Since2019,UKbilateralODAtoSouthSudanhasdecreasedby£131million.Thisamountrepresentedroughly2%ofthecountry’s

GDPin2022.

ThreeyearsofUKaidcuts:wherehasODAbeenhithardest?/

16

Conclusion

SincetheUKgovernment’sdecisiontoreducetheaidbudgetto0.5%ofGNI,official

developmentassistance(ODA)tomanyimportantsectorshasdeclined.Whilein-donorrefugeecostshaveincreasedsignificantly,aidtowardstheworld’spoorestcountrieshasconsistentlyfallen.ThishashadthemostnoteworthyimpactsonthecountrieswhichhadpreviouslyreceivedhighsharesoftheirtotalaidfromtheUK.

DespitehalfofallsectorsexperiencinganincreaseinODA,thedownwardtrendinUK

aidcontinuedin2022(excludingrefugeecosts).Whilerefugeecostsexperiencedhigh

increases,itispossiblethattheirshareofUKODAwillhavebeenatitshighestin2022,

astheimpactoftheUkrainecrisisonin-donorrefugeecostsis

likelytofallinthecoming

years.

Furthermore,followingrecentpolicychangesthatpreventanyonearrivinginthe

UKviachannelcrossingsfromapplyingforasylum,theUKwillpotentiallynolongerbe

allowedtocountinitial

accommodationcostsasaid.

Finally,themost