技能即薪酬：招聘需求中特定技能的回报+Skills+That+Pay：+The+Returns+from+Specific+Skills+as+Demanded+in+Job+Advertisements

SKILLSTHATPAY

TheReturnsfromSpecificSkillsasDemandedinJobAdvertisements

CIt

CitiGPS:GlobalPerspectives&Solutions

October2023

Citiisoneoftheworld’slargestfinancialinstitutions,operatinginallmajorestablishedandemergingmarkets.Acrosstheseworldmarkets,ouremployeesconductanongoingmulti-disciplinaryconversation–accessinginformation,analyzingdata,developinginsights,andformulatingadvice.Asourpremierthoughtleadershipproduct,CitiGPSisdesignedtohelpourreadersnavigatetheglobaleconomy’smostdemandingchallengesandtoanticipatefuturethemesandtrendsinafast-changingandinterconnectedworld.CitiGPSaccessesthebestelementsofourglobalconversationandharveststhethoughtleadershipofawiderangeofseniorprofessionalsacrossourfirm.Thisisnotaresearchreportanddoesnotconstituteadviceoninvestmentsorasolicitationstobuyorsellanyfinancialinstruments.

FormoreinformationonCitiGPS,pleasevisitourwebsiteat/citigps.

CitiGPS:GlobalPerspectives&SolutionsSeptember2023

PrimaryAuthors

HelenHKrause,CFA

HelenisaManagingDirectorandHeadofDataScienceInsightsatCitiGlobalDataInsights.PrevioustoCiti,HelenwasanExecutiveDirectorinAlternativeInvestmentatMorganStanleyandaSeniorPortfolioManageratBlackRock.ShehasanMScinEconomicsandFinancefromUniversityofWarwickandanMScin

MathematicalTradingandFinancefromCassBusinessSchool.

+44-20-7986-8653|helen.krause@

BrianYeung

BrianisaVicePresidentandafoundingDataScientistatCitiGlobalDataInsights.Brian’sworkfocusesondevelopingdatascience-driveninvestmentinsightsbyleveragingalternativedata,andhehasledvarious

projectsincludingemploymentandworkforcedynamics,supplychainresilience,andconsumercreditcard

spendanalysis.HeholdsanMScinDataSciencefromUniversityCollegeLondonandaBScinMathematicsfromImperialCollegeLondon.

+44-20-7986-8692|brian.yeung@

CecilyJosten

CecilyisaFellowatTheInclusionInitiativeattheLondonSchoolofEconomics.CecilyholdsaPhDin

BehaviouralSciencewithafocusonlabourmarketsandlaboureconomics.Herresearchexpertisecentresaroundthefutureofworkandskills,personalitytraitsandinclusionatwork.

GraceLordan

DrLordanistheFoundingDirectorofTheInclusionInitiativeandanAssociateProfessorattheLondon

SchoolofEconomicsandPoliticalScience.Graceisaneconomistandalabourmarketskillsexpert.Grace’sresearchfocusesoninclusiveleadership,women’sprogressintheworkplace,thefutureofwork,productivitythroughdiversityandindividualsuccess.

PantelisKoutroumpis

PantelisistheDirectoroftheProgrammeonTechnologicalandEconomicChangeattheOxfordMartinSchool.Pantelis'mainresearchinterestsareindustrialeconomics,innovation,telecommunications

economics,andregulation.HeisamemberoftheeditorialboardofTelecommunicationsPolicyandhas

publishedinseveraljournalsincludingtheJournalofEconomicLiterature,JournaloftheEuropeanEconomicAssociation,andEconomicPolicy,amongothers.

3

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October2023CitiGPS:GlobalPerspectives&Solutions

©2023Citigroup

KathleenBoyle,CFA

ManagingEditor,CitiGPS

SKILLSTHATPAY

TheReturnsfromSpecificSkillsasDemandedinJobAdverts

Whatdidyouwanttobewhenyougrewup?Asakid,youprobablychose

occupationsyousawinthelocalcommunityoronethatfollowedinyourparents’footsteps.Maybeateacher,doctor,nurse,orfireman.Televisionopenedawholenewlistofpossibilitiesleadingtovisionsofbeinganastronautoramoviestar.Butinthe1970s,veryfewkidswouldhavesaidtheywantedtobeadatascientist.

TheCitiGPS

“TechnologyatWork”reportseries

launchedwiththestatisticthat47%ofjobsintheUnitedStateswereatriskofautomationovertheforthcomingdecadesandsimilarshareswereestimatedforothercountries.Insubsequent

reports,welookedathowtheriseofe-commercewasaffectingemployment;thetrendsintheworkforcefromtheCOVID-19pandemic;andthepotentialfor

outsourcingnotonlymanufacturingjobs,butservicejobsaswell.

Whilewefocusedonhowtechnologyandautomationcouldnegativelyaffectjobs,

westruggledtopredictjobsyettobeinvented.Inthe2019CitiGPSreport

TechnologyatWorkv4.0:NavigatingtheFutureofWork,

wenotedwewereonthebrinkofatechnologicalrevolutionwiththeadventofartificialintelligence.AlthoughAI-enabledautomationcouldaffectlow-incomejobstypicallyperformedbyworkerswithnomorethanahighschooldegree,jobslesslikelytobereplacedwould

requireatleastacollegedegreeandconsistoftaskscenteredoncomplexsocialinteractionsandcreativeskills.

WithAInowuponusandleadingusintothe“FourthIndustrialRevolution,”thisnewreportnoteshiringhasevolvedfromrequiringspecificeducationandexperience

criteriatolookingmoreatdetailedskillsrequirements.Thereportthatfollowslooksatthechangingdemandforspecificskillsinthisrapidlychangingjobmarket.It

discussestheskillsthatarerisingandfallingindemandandexploreshowthewagesfortheseskillsarechanging.

Lookingatprofessionaloccupations,theauthorsidentifytwo“soft”skillsgroupsand

seven“cognitive”skillsgroupsthatareincreasinglyrelevantforthefutureofworkanddeemedimportantbasedonthefrequencyinwhichtheyappearinjob

advertisements.Overall,thesoftskillcollaborativeleadershipincreasedin

importanceovertimeintermsofdemandandhourlywages.Thestudyalsofoundthatcognitiveskillsindatascienceareconstantlyevolving,causingcertaindata

scienceskillstoattractawagepremiuminoneperiod,thenloseitinthenext.

LookingspecificallyatAI,demandforAIskillshasincreasedgloballyby9timesfor“Tech-AI”jobsand11.3timesfor“Broad-AI”onessince2015.

Constantlyevolvingtechnologyleadstoshiftingchangesinskillsetdemand.

Becauseofthis,continuouslearningwillbecriticalinthefuture,particularlyindatascience,foremployeestostayrelevant.Forcorporates,thismeansworkforce

upskillingwillbeincreasinglyimportant.Forinvestors,analyzingtheskillsbeing

demandedbyacompanycandetermineifthatcompanyisseekingtheskillsmostrelevantintoday’seconomy.

Dreamingaboutbeingadatascientistasakidwouldhavebeenagreatchoice;

collectingtheskillstomeettherole’schangingrequirementsasanadultisanevenbetterone.

WHICHSKILLSAREINDEMAND?

Usingdatafromjobadvertisements,weexaminethespecificskillsthatarerisingandfallingindemandacross

twotimeperiods.Collaborativeleadershipregistersthesteepestincreaseindemand,reflectingitsimportanceinfosteringinclusiveenvironmentsforinnovation.

ShareofJobAdvertsRequestingEachoftheNineSkillsGroups(2014-15vs.2018-1Q2020)

SoftSkillsCognitiveSkills

SkillsThatPay

RISEOFTHEMACHINES

Globallabormarketsareintransition,withautomationincreasinglyreplacingworkersforroutinetasks.Thisshiftisreflectedinariseindemandforworkerswithinteractiveandanalyticalskillsinnon-routinework.

SkillsDemand1950vs.2020(NumberofMentionsper1,000JobAdWords)

8

2020

1950

7.1

7

6

5.5

5.0

5

4

2.9

3

2.0

2

0.9

1

0

Non-RoutineInteractiveTasks

RoutineCognitiveTasks

Non-RoutineAnalyticalTasks

Source:Atalayetal.(2020),CitiGlobalDataInsights

CollaborativeLeadership

Interpersonal&Organized

BigData

Programming

Machine

Learning

Cloud

Computing

Research

Math

Analytical

2014-

2015

%

50.14%

24.70%

1.63%

13.60%

N/M

1.76%

16.19%

0.19%

31.19%

#

71,718

35,335

2,325

19,448

N/M

2,524

23,152

273

44,607

2018-

1Q2020

%

61.07%

30.85%

2.49%

13.03%

0.19%

4.88%

18.94%

0.21%

35.83%

#

374,087

188,981

15,246

79,827

1,155

29,911

115,996

1,288

219,461

Source:LinkUp,LondonSchoolofEconomics,CitiGlobalDataInsights

©2023Citigroup

+2ppt

-40ppt

+1ppt

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%0%

-1%

DATASCIENCEEVOLUTIONCHANGESSKILLSPRIORITIES

Whenwelookatthewageimpactofa10-percentagepointincreaseindemand,certaindatascienceskills(i.e.,

bigdataandcloudcomputing)attractawagepremiuminthefirstperiod,thenloseitinthesecondasthose

skillsbecamemoreabundantinthemarketplace.Machinelearning—amorerecenttechnology—isanexception,reflectingconstantevolutionindatascience.

Occupational-LevelWageResponsetoa10-PercentagePointIncreaseinDemand(%,$perHour)

Cloud

Computing

CollaborativeLeader

MachineLearning

BigData

Analytical

Math

Research

Programming

Interpersonal

&Organized

-2%

2014-2015

$0.00-$0.16$0.83$1.47-$0.42—$0.20$0.40-$0.06

2018-1Q2020$0.15-$0.36-$0.60-$0.18-$0.54$2.89$0.29$1.25$0.01

Source:LinkUp,LondonSchoolofEconomics,CitiGlobalDataInsights

COMPLEMENTARYSKILLS

Thereisapositiveinteractionbetweencollaborativeleadershipandresearchskillsintermsofwages.Thisalignswithliteratureindicatingthatautomationincreasestheneedforsocialskillsalongsideadvancedcognitiveskillslikelogicalreasoning.

OccupationalLevelWageResponseofa10-PercentagePointIncreaseinDemandforSelectInteractionsBetweenSkillsGroups(BarsRepresent%,$perHourEmbedded)

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

+1ppt

$13.66

$4.30$5.16

$0.54

$0.88

-$4.81

BigDataxCloudComputing

BigDataxProgramming

CloudComputingxProgramming

CollaborativeLeadershipxResearch

2014-20152018-1Q2020

Source:LinkUp,LondonSchoolofEconomics,CitiGlobalDataInsights

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CitiGPS:GlobalPerspectives&SolutionsOctober2023

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Contents

Background

7

LaborMarketsAreShiftingandRequireInvestmentsinSkills

7

DefiningSoftSkillsandCognitiveSkills

10

AutomationandtheTypeofWorkWeDo

11

WhatSkillsPayMore?

14

SkillsRequirementEvolution

14

TheContextofOurSkillsAnalysis

17

TheRiseoftheCollaborativeLeader

23

CanCollaborativeLeadershipBeTaught?

25

InteractionsBetweenSkills

25

DataScienceIsNotaFixedSkill

27

SectorAnalysis:Jobsvs.WagePremiums

29

Energy

31

Materials

32

Industrials

32

ConsumerDiscretionary

33

ConsumerStaples

34

Healthcare

34

Financials

35

InformationTechnology

36

CommunicationServices

37

Utilities

37

RealEstate

38

IndustryAnalysisSummary

39

WhatDoOtherDataSourcesTellUsAboutSkillsDemand

Evolution?

40

InnovationbySector

42

TalentTenure

44

TenurebySector

45

RecentDataScienceSkills:LargeLanguageModels

46

In-Depth:CompetitionforAITalent

48

WhyAreAISkillsImportant?

48

TheRiseofDemandforAISkills

48

SupplyofAIProfessionals

55

RecruitingDifficulties

56

CognitiveSkills:ImplicationsforCorporatesandInvestors62

ConclusionandPolicyRecommendations

65

Appendix

68

7

October2023CitiGPS:GlobalPerspectives&Solutions

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Background

Overthepastthreedecades,theglobalpopulationhasregisteredanincreaseof

45%,growingfrom5.5billiontocloseto8billion,accordingtodatafromtheWorldBank.Atthesametime,thelabormarkethasgrown46%—prettymuchinlinewithpopulationgrowth—withthenumberofemployeesworldwideincreasingfrom2.3billionto3.3billion.MaskedbeneaththesegrowthnumbersistheeffectoftheThirdIndustrialRevolution,whichdramaticallychangedthedemandforskills.Withthe

onsetoftheFourthIndustrialRevolutionuponus,thedemandforskillsislikelytobealteredagain.1

Figure1.NumberofEmployeesWorldwide(Billions,Over15YearsOld)

Source:InternationalLabourOrganization

LaborMarketsAreShiftingandRequireInvestmentsinSkills

Globallabormarketsarecurrentlyintransition,withrisingautomationand

technologicalinnovationincreasinglyleadingtothereplacementofhumansintheworkplacebymachines.TheThirdIndustrialRevolution,whichstartedinthe

secondhalfofthe20thcentury,broughtforththeriseofelectronics,

telecommunications,andcomputers.Italsoresultedinthereplacementofhumansinjobsthatwereeasilycodifiedbecausetheylargelyconsistedofroutinetasks,

e.g.,tasksthatarerepetitiveinnature,andcausedalargereductioninjobsinthemiddleoftheincomedistribution,mainlyinthemanufacturingsector.2

1SeeFigure2fordefinitionsofthedifferentindustrialrevolutions.

2DavidH.AutorandDavidDorn,“TheGrowthofLow-SkillServiceJobsandthe

PolarizationoftheU.S.LaborMarket,”AmericanEconomicReview,Vol.103,No.5,

August2013;GraceLordanandDavidNeumark,”PeopleVersusMachines:TheImpactofMinimumWagesonAutomatableJobs,”LabourEconomics,Vol.52,June2018.

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Figure2.IndustrialRevolutionTimelines

Source:Shutterstock

TheFourthIndustrialRevolution,whichstartedin2015,isbringingwithitartificialintelligence(AI),robotics,quantumcomputing,geneticengineering,andthe

Internet-of-Things(IoT).Together,thesenewtechnologiespromisetofurthershapethenatureofwork.Inparticular,weexpectsignificantchangestotheskillsbeing

demandedintheworkplace.Intheir2022study,CecilyJostenandGraceLordananalyzedpatentsindetailtodeterminetheskillsofthefutureandconcludedthat“people”skillsandabstractthinkingskillswerethemostfuture-proofskillsintermsofgettingandkeepingajob.3

TheCOVID-19pandemicacceleratedtheFourthIndustrialRevolutionthroughthedevelopmentoftechnologieswiththepowertogreatlyshapetheday-to-dayworkexperience.4Oneexampleisremoteworking,whichwasdrivenbyanincreasein

technologyadoptionacrossindustriesandanimprovementintechnological

equipmentthatenabledvirtualtransactionsandexchanges.AsFigure3shows,theOnlineLabourIndex2020providesanindicationofhowstandardemploymentisincreasinglybeingsupplementedandsubstitutedbytemporarygigworkmediatedbydigitalplatforms.5

3CecilyJostenandGraceLordan,“AutomationandtheChangingNatureofWork,”PLoSONE,Vol.17,No.5,2022.

4JonathanDingelandBrentNeiman,“HowManyJobsCanBeDoneatHome?”Journal

ofPublicEconomics,Vol.189,No.104235,September2020.

5The

OnlineLabourIndex2020

ispartoftheOnlineLabourConservatoryattheOxfordInternetInstitute.SeeFabianStephanyetal.,“OnlineLabourIndex2020:NewWaysto

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Figure3.OnlineLabourIndex,2020Figure4.AverageNumberofWorkfromHomeDaysperWeekThat

EmployeesDesire

180

170

160

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

Jun-16Jun-17Jun-18Jun-19Jun-20Jun-21Jun-22

Average

BrazilCanadaU.S.

Austria France Germany Greece Hungary ItalyNetherlands Poland Serbia Spain SwedenTurkey

UKUkraine

ChinaIndia

JapanSouthKorea Malaysia Russia SingaporeTaiwan

EgyptAustralia

1.7

2..3

2.1

1.5

1.31.6

1.5

1.7

1.7

1.5

1.4

1.7

1.91.8

1.91.91.8

1.1

2.11.5

1.2

1.8

1.9

1.32.3

21.9

Americas

Europe

Asia

Rest

0123

Source:OnlineLabourIndex2020Source:CevatGirayAksoyetal.(2022)

Accordingtoarecentsurveyonworkingarrangementsin27countriesconductedbetweenmid-2021andearly2022,workingfromhomehasbecomeaglobalnormwithemployeeswanting1.7work-from-homedays,whileemployersplanan

averageof0.7work-from-homedaysperweek.6Thesetensionsremaintobe

workedoutwithseniorleadersoffirmsacrossdifferentsectorsdisagreeingaboutwhetherortowhatextentremoteworkingshouldstayinplace.Bymid-2023,levelsofremotework,measuredbyshareofdaysworkedfromhome,seemtohave

convergedaround25%.7

Overall,thedynamicsofthelabormarketowedtotheFourthIndustrialRevolutionhaveramificationsfortheskillsbeingdemandedbyemployers.Thetechnologiesavailablehavethepotentialtobeapowerfulcomplementtoprofessionalworkers.Forexample,videocommunicationthroughsoftwaresuchasZoomorMicrosoftTeamshasmaderemoteworkingpossible,andtherebyallowscompaniestohirethebestglobaltalent.Machines,suchasmedicalAItools,complementdoctorsinmakingtherightdecisionsbyprovidinglargeamountsofdataandcalculatingrisks(e.g.,differentkindsofclinicaldecisionsupportsoftware).Technologyisalso

advancingasapowerfulsubstituteforjobsdonebylow-skilledworkers.For

example,moderntranslatingtoolssuchasDeepLcouldeffectivelymakehumantranslatorsredundantasitclaimstobeabletotranslateeventhemostcomplex

texts.Formanyoccupations,technologyisimprovingtothepointofatleastpartlysubstitutingforemployees.AnexampleisConstructionAutomation’spatented

bricklayingrobot,whichbuiltitsfirsthousein2020.

MeasuretheWorld’sRemoteFreelancingMarket,”BigData&Society,Vol.8,No.2,September15,2021.

6CevatGirayAksoyetal.,WorkingfromHomeAroundtheWorld,BeckerFriedmanInstituteforEconomicsatUChicago,WorkingPaperNo.2022-124,September2022.7JoseMariaBarrero,NicholasBloom,andStevenJDavis,“TheEvolutionofWorkingfromHome,”StanfordInstituteforEconomicPolicyResearch,June2023.

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Itfollowsthatthedemandforspecificskillsfromhumansisalsochanging,asfirmsadoptavailabletechnologiesthatcomplementandsubstitutefortaskspreviouslydonebytheworkerstheyhired.Inthisreport,wediscussthespecificskillsthatarerisingandfallingindemand,andexplorehowthewagesfortheseskillsare

changing.Wealsoexaminehowdemandischangingforcombinationsofspecificskillsandhowthisisreflectedinthepriceofwagesforoccupationsthatdemandthem.

Ouranalysisyieldsusefulinsightsinanumberofcontexts:

Itshedslightontheskillsthatarevaluableintoday’slabormarket.This

informationisusefulintermsofhiring,planning,training,andupskillingworkersfordailytasks,butimportantly,itcanalsohelpfirmsstrengthentheemployeevaluepropositiontoattractandretaintalent.

Itprovidesinformationtofirmsonthepricevolatilityforspecificskills.

Itoffersanewlensthroughwhichinvestorscantakeapulseofacompany’s

potentialforinnovation.Thatis,investorscananalyzetheskillsbeingdemandedbyacompanyinwhichtheyarecontemplatingmakinganinvestmentand

determineifthecompanyisseekingtheskillsthataremostrelevantintoday’seconomyforaspecificoccupation.

Finally,ourworkhelpstoanalyzeandcompareratesofcorporatetechnologicaladoptionbymeasuringhowquicklycompanieshireaworkforcetoimplementnewtechnologies.

DefiningSoftSkillsandCognitiveSkills

Inthisreportwefocusoncognitiveandsoftskills(ornon-cognitiveskills).Softskillsareanindividual’s“patternsofthought,feelings,andbehaviorsandencapsulatea

rangeofcharacteristicsaboutapersonthatarenoteasilyobservableor

calculable.”8Theydescribehowpeoplethink,feel,andact.9Examplesincludeconscientiousness,empathy,creativity,andcollaborativeskills.Socialskills(orpeopleskills)areasubsetofsoftskillsthatcenteraroundhumaninteractions.Theseskillsincludeleadership,negotiation,andsuccessfulcooperation.

Cognitiveskillscenteraroundhumancognition,intelligence,andthinking.Theycanbedefinedas“theabilitytoacquireandinterprethigherqualitydatafordecision-

making,”andinvolvetheabilitytolearnandadapttochange.10Examplesare

mathematicalskillsorproblem-solvingskills.Inanoccupation,cognitiveskillscanbeveryspecificandcenteredaroundtheabilitytoperformacertaintask,for

example,theknowledgeofspecificcomputingsoftwaretoperformdatascience

withinacompany.Concretely,tobecomeadatascientist,acandidateneedstonotjustbegenerallymathematicallyandquantitivelyinclinedbutpotentiallyalsoknowprogramminglanguagessuchasHadooporPython.Employersmeasurethe

attainmentlevelofsuchskillsbyeitherscreeningfordegreequalificationsor

certificatesor,increasingly,usingtechnicalevaluationsorinternalscreeningtools.

8CecilyJostenandGraceLordan,“TheAcceleratedValueofSocialSkillsinKnowledgeWorkandtheCOVID-19Pandemic,”LSEPublicPolicyReview,Vol.1,No.4,May2021.9LexBorghans,BasTerWeel,andBruceA.Weinberg,“PeopleSkillsandtheLabor-

MarketOutcomesofUnderrepresentedGroups,”ILRReview,Vol.67,No.2,2014.

10DavidDeming,TheGrowingImportanceofDecision-MakingontheJob,NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,WorkingPaperNo.28733,April2021.

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AutomationandtheTypeofWorkWeDo

TheFirstandSecondIndustrialRevolutionsinitiallyincreasedthedemandforlow-skilledlaborasincreasedmechanizationassistedindividualsingettingtheirjobs

doneandmassproductionincreasedproductivity.11Withtheappearanceof

assemblylines,forexample,humanswereneededtocomplementtasksperformedbymachinesandoftentofinalizeassembly.Suchbasicskillsareoftenreferredtoasroutinetasksthatinvolvethefrequentrepetitionoftasksandrequirefewskills.

Duringthosefirstperiodsofindustrialization,peoplebenefitedbothasworkersandasconsumers.Notonlycouldlow-skilledindividualsfindjobs,butimprovementsintechnologyalsomeantthattheycouldaffordthingstheypreviouslycouldnot,suchascars.Productivityroseandthestandardoflivingimprovedduringthistime.12

Highly-skilledcraftsmenwerereplacedbymachinesoperatedbylow-skilledlaborers,butoverall,morenewjobswerecreatedthanoldoneslost.

TheThirdIndustrialRevolutionshapedlabormarketsindevelopedcountriesandincreasedtheimportanceofcognitiveskills.13Theriseofcomputersandindustrialrobotsmeantthatwhilemanyrolesgotautomated,qualifiedstaffwereneededtooperatemachinery,therebycomplementingmachines.14Withevenfurther

automationanddigitalization,thedemandforskillsincreasinglyshiftedawayfromlow-skilledlabortowardshigh-skilledlabor.However,theinventionoftheWorld

WideWebandincreasingdigitalizationmoregenerallymeantthatentireworker

groupsweresubstitutedratherthancomplementedbymachines.Thistypeof

industrialization,ascomparedtothepreviousones,benefitedlow-skilledindividualsonlyasconsumers(e.g.,theinternetopenedupnewopportunitiesfreeofcharge)buthurtthemasworkersbyreplacingthem.Onlyhigh-skilledworkerswere

complementedbymachines,whichincreasedthedemandforskilledlabor

comparedtothosewithlowerroutineormanualskills.TheCitiGPSreport

TechnologyatWorkv6.0:TheComingofthePost-ProductionSociety

discusses

howtheCOVID-19pandemichasaccelerateddigitalizationandautomation,whichmeanslow-skilled,low-incomejobsareatriskofdisappearingentirelyintheFourthIndustrialRevolution.

Thereisavastbodyofresearchthatlooksathowworkandoccupationshave

changedbothovertimeandasaresultoftechnologicalchangesandinnovations.15Forexample,AutorandDorn(2013)foundthatoccupationshighinroutinetasks,versusthosehighinabstracttasks,weremoreautomatableandthattheshareofoccupationswithroutinetasksisdeclining.Atalayetal.(2020)foundthatthe

frequencyofwordsinjobadvertisementsinnewspapersrelatedtoroutinecognitivetasksdeclinedbymorethanhalfbetween1950and2000.

11CitiGPS,

TechnologyatWork:TheFutureofInnovationandEmployment,

2015.

12McKinseyGlobalInstitute,JobsLost,JobsGained:WorkforceTransitionsinaTimeofAutomation,December2017.

13CecilyJostenandGraceLordan,“TheAcceleratedValueofSocialSkillsinKnowledgeWorkandtheCOVID-19Pandemic,”LSEPublicPolicyReview,Vol.1,No.4,May2021.14CitiGPS,

TechnologyatWork:TheFutureofInnovationandEmployment,

2015.

15DavidH.Autor,FrankLevy,andRichardJ.Murnane,“TheSkillContentofRecent

TechnologicalChange:AnEmpiricalExploration,”TheQuarterlyJournalofEconomics,Vol.118,No.4,November2003;DavidH.AutorandDavidDorn,“TheGrowthofLow-SkillServiceJobsandthePolarizationoftheU.S.LaborMarket,”AmericanEconomicReview,Vol.103,No.5,August2013;CecilyJostenandGraceLordan,“Robotsat

Work:AutomatableandNon-AutomatableJobs,”HandbookofLabor,HumanResourcesandPopulationEconomics(Springer,2020).

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Asdepictedin

Figur