说明行为济学lecture3 time

1.1.1.Predictionsofexponentialdiscounting1.2.Motivatingexample:estimatedtime2.1.Quasi-hyperbolicdiscounting(beta-delta2.2.Sophisticationand.2.3.3.Program1.1.ExponentialPaulSamuelsonproposedthediscounted-utility(DU)modelin1937.TU(C,...,C)tu(CT t111

Whatarethepropertiesofthis1.2Violations:EstimatingtimeChoice:wouldyouchoose$15todayor$50inoneMatching:Areyouindifferentbetween$15todayand?inoneAllocation:Ifyouhave$15today,howmuchwouldyouwanttoallocatetooneyearlatertoreceive2%interestrate?Method:hypotheticalv.s.Type:laboratoryv.s.选择多少钱在半年后拿到384 98211982111111987样55数3210 a

累积%问你会选择多少钱在一年后拿到523 4211样

88数42

累积% b1.2Violations:DecliningDiscountSubjectsareindifferentbetween(Thaler,$15nowand$20(median)inonemonthannualdiscountrateof345%$15nowand$50(median)inoneyearannualdiscountrateof120%$15nowand$100(median)intenyearsannualdiscountrateof9%1.2Violations:DecliningDiscountSubjectshavethefollowing$110in31days>$100in30$100now>$110Quasi-hyperbolicDiscountingLaibson,David.1997.“Goldeneggsandhyperbolicdiscounting”,QJE,Vol.112(2),pp.443-77.Asimplethreedays,beta=1/2,deltau(2apples)=3/2u(1Quasi-hyperbolicDiscountingQuasi-hyperbolicDiscountingExplaindifferentpropensitytoconsumeoutofwealthandlaborincomeFinancialinnovationthatincreasesliquiditymaybe“Mostofusprocrastinate.Wedelaydoingunpleasanttasksthatwewishwewoulddosooner.Suchprocrastinationcanbeverycostly.Weskipenjoyableeventsinmid-Aprilbecauseweprocrastinateincompletingourtaxes;wedieyoungbecauseweprocrastinateinquittingsmoking,startingadiet,orschedulingamedicalcheckup;andwearedeniedtenurebecauseofourown,coauthors',orjournalreferees'procrastination.”-O'DonoghueandRabin,O‘Donoghue,TedandMatthewRabin.1999“DoingItNoworLater,”AER,89(1),103-124.SophisticatedornaïveaboutthetimeActioninvolvesimmediatecostorPreferencebiasSophisticationO‘Donoghue,TedandMatthewRabin.1999“DoingItNoworLater,”AER,89(1),103-124.ImmediateCostNaïveagentstendtoSophisticatedagentswillnotImmediateRewardNaïveagentstendtoSophisticatedagentstendtoExample:ImmediateAssumethatβ=½andδ=Needdohomeworkinoneweek,canseethreeofthefollowingmoviesWeek1:Badmovie=Week2:Okmovie=Week3:Goodmovie=Week4:Greatmovie!=Example:ImmediateAssumethatβ=½andδ=CanonlyseeoneWeek1:Badmovie=Week2:Okmovie=Week3:Goodmovie=Week4:Greatmovie!=O'Donoghue,TedandMatthewRabin.2001."ChoiceandProcrastination,"Quart.J.Econ.116:1,pp.121-60.“Thebetteristheenemyofthegood.”WhattasktoprocrastinateOnattractiveoptionbecausesheplanstocompleteamoreattractivebutnever-to-be-completedoptionOnimportanttaskthatinvolveslargeimmediateProvidingadditionaloptionsmakepeopleDualself(presentation)RichardH.ThalerandH.M.Shefrin,1981.AnEconomicTheoryofSelf-ControlTheJournalofPoliticalEconomy,Vol.89,No.2(Apr.,1981),pp.392-406(presentation)FudenbergD,LevineDK2006:Adual-selfmodelofimpulsecontrol,AmericanEconomicReview96(5):1449-1476IntroducewillpowerandcostofselfDellaVigna,StefanoandMalmendier,Ulrike.2006.“PayingNotToGoToTheGym”,AmericanEconomicReview,96(3):694-719.Data:contractandday-to-dayattendancerecords,April1997throughJuly2000forclub1andApril1997throughFebruary2001forclubs2andMonthlycontract:monthlyfeeis$70(discounted)pr$85(standard).AutomaticrenewalunlesscancelledAnnualcontract:10*monthlycontractfee.Automaticcanceledunlessrenewed.Pay-as-you-go:$10perInitialchoice:Memberspaymorethanpay-as-yougoonaverage(80%) Dynamicchoice:monthlycontractv.s.annualcontract(cancellationlagsunderthemonthlycontract):Onaverage,2.31fullmonthselapsebetweenthelastattendanceandcontractterminationformembers,withassociatedmembershippayments$187.Thislagisatleastfourmonthsfor20percentofthe(presentation)JesseM.Shapiro,Isthereadailydiscountrate?Evidencefromthefoodstampnutritioncycle,2005,JournalofPublicEconomics,89,(presentation)Gine,KarlanandZinman,2010"PutYourMoneyWhereYourButtis:ACommitmentContractforSmokingCessation",AEJAppliedEconomicsAshraf,Nava,DeanKarlan,andWesleyYin.2006.“TyingOdysseustotheMast:EvidencefromaCommitmentSavingsProductinthePhilippines.”QuarterlyJournalofEconomics121(2)data:partneredwiththeGreenBankofCaraga,aruralbankinMindanaointhePhilippines.Step1:Survey1777existingorformerclientsofthe1)WouldyouprefertoreceiveP200guaranteedtoday,orP300guaranteedin1month?2)WouldyouprefertoreceiveP200guaranteedin6months,orP300guaranteedin7months?Step2:Control25%nofurtherMarketingtreatment25%verbalencouragement:savingCommitmenttreatment50%SEED(Save,Earn,EnjoyDeposits)accountCommitintheformofspecificCommitintheformofspecificsavingSeveralconceptualAverageTreatmentEffect(ATE):impactoftreatingaverageindividuals,nocontrolIntentiontotreateffect(ITE):impactofofferingtheprogram,comparetreatmenttocontrolTreatmenteffectonTreated(TET):impactonthosewhoactuallytaketheprogramResult:Step1Approximately27.5percentofindividualswerehyperbolic,thatismorepatientoverfuturetradeoffsthancurrent19.8percentwerelesspatientoverfuturetrade-offsthancurrenttrade-offsResult:Step2SEEDtake-upResult:Step2SEEDtake-upResult:EffectonResult:EffectonResult:EffectonResult:Newsavingsorcrowding-3.3Application:ProgramMadrian,BrigitteC.andDennisF.Shea.2001.“ThePowerofSuggestion:Inertiain401(k)ParticipationandSavingsBehavior.”QuarterlyJournalofEconomics,116(4):1149-1187.Thepowerofthe3.3Application:ProgramData:considerthe401(k)savingsdecisionsofemployeesatalistedcompanyovertwoyear1997-Participation->contributionrate->asset3.3Application:Program3.3Application:Program3.3Application:ProgramResult2:distributionofthecontribution3.3Application:ProgramResult3:assetApplication:Program(presentation)Carroll,Ga