版权说明:本文档由用户提供并上传,收益归属内容提供方,若内容存在侵权,请进行举报或认领
文档简介
DigestOfThe.Economist.2006(2-3)
Movingmarkets
Shiftsintradingpatternsaremakingtechnologyevermoreimportant
ANINVESTORpressesabutton,sending1,000small“buy”orderstoastockexchange.Theexchange'scomputersysteminstantlykicksin,butasplitsecondlater,99%oftheordersarecancelled.Havingfoundthebestprice,theinvestormakeshistradediscreetly,leavingnovisibletraceonthemarket—allinlesstimethanittakestoblink.Hisstealthstrategyremainsintact.
Eventslikethishappenmanytimesaday,asfloodsofordersfromactivehedgefundsand“algorithmic”traders—whouseautomatedprogramstobuyandsell—rushthroughtheinformation-technologysystemsoftheworld'sexchanges.Theaveragetransactionsizeonleadingstockexchangeshasfallenfromabout2,000sharesinthemid-1990stofewerthan400today,althoughtotaltradingvolumehassoared.Butexchanges'systemshavetocopewithmorethanjustagrowingonslaughtof“buy”and“sell”messages.Customerswanttotradeinmorecomplicatedways,combiningdifferenttypesofassetsondifferentexchangesatonce.Then,asalways,thereisregulation.Allthisispushingtechnologyfurthertothefore.
RecentembarrassmentsattheTokyoStockExchangehaveillustratedwhatcanhappenwhensystemsfailtokeepupwiththetimes.Injustthepastfewmonths,theimportanceoftechnologyhasbeenplaininmergers(thoseoftheNewYorkStockExchangeandArchipelago,andNASDAQandINET);collaborations(thedecisionbytheNewYorkBoardofTradetousetheChicagoBoardofTrade'stradingplatform);andthecreationofoff-exchangetradingnetworks(includingoneunveiledrecentlybyCitigroup).
Technologyishardlyanewelementinfinancialmarkets:theadventofelectronictradinginthe1980s(firstinEurope,laterinAmerica)helpedtoglobalisefinancialmarketsanddroveuptradingvolumes.Buthavingslowedafterthedotcombubbleitisnowdemandingevermoreofexchanges'andintermediaries'attention.Investorscannowdealmoreeasilywithexchangesoreachother,bypassingtraditionalroutes.Ascustomers'demandsandbargainingpowerhaveincreased,sotheexchangeshavehadtorampuptheirownsystems.“Technologycreatedthemonsterthathastobeaddressedbymoretechnology,”saysLeslieSutphenofCalyonFinancial,abigfuturesbroker.
AiteGroup,aresearchfirm,reckonsthatinAmericaalonethesecuritiesandinvestmentindustryspent$26.4billionlastyearonIT(seechart),andmayspend$30billionin2008.Sell-sidefirmsspendmost:J.P.MorganChaseandMorganStanleyeachsplashedoutmorethan$2billionin2004,whileasset-managementfirmssuchasStateStreetGlobalAdvisors,BarclaysGlobalInvestorsandFidelityInvestmentsspentbetween$250mand$350mapiece.Withbrokeragefeesfortradeswhittleddown,manyhaveconcludedthatbettertechnologyisonewaytocuttradingcostsandkeepcustomers.
Testingallengines
Globalgrowthislookinglesslopsidedthanformanyyears
LARRYSUMMERS,aTreasurysecretaryunderBillClinton,oncesaidthat“theworldeconomyisflyingononeengine”todescribeitsexcessiverelianceonAmericandemand.Nowgrowthseemstobebecomingmoreevenatlast:EuropeandJapanarerevvingup,asaremostemergingeconomies.Asaresult,if(orwhen)theAmericanenginestalls,theglobalaeroplanewillnotnecessarilycrash.
Forthetimebeing,America'smonetarypolicymakersthinkthattheireconomyisstillrunningprettywell.Thisweek,asAlanGreenspanhandedoverthechairmanshipoftheFederalReservetoBenBernanke,theFedmarkedtheendofMrGreenspan's18-yearreignbyraisinginterestratesforthe14thconsecutivemeeting,to4.5%.ThecentralbankersalsogaveMrBernankemoreflexibilitybysofteningtheirpolicystatement:theysaidthatfurthertightening“maybeneeded”ratherthan“islikelytobeneeded”,asbefore.
MostanalystsexpecttheFedtoraiseratesonceortwicemore,althoughtheeconomyslowedsharplyinlate2005.RealGDPgrowthfelltoanannualrateofonly1.1%inthefourthquarter,thelowestforthreeyears.Economistswerequicktoascribethisdisappointingnumbertospecialfactors,suchasHurricaneKatrinaandasteepfallincarsales—theconsequenceofgenerousincentivesthathadencouragedbuyerstobringpurchasesforwardtothethirdquarter.Theconsensushasitthatgrowthwillbouncebacktoanannualrateofover4%inthefirstquarterandstaystrongthereafter.
Thissoundstoooptimistic.Areboundisindeedlikelyinthisquarter,buttherestoftheyearcouldprovedisappointing,asaweakeninghousingmarketstartstoweighonconsumerspending.InDecembersalesofexistinghomesfellmarkedlyandthestockofunsoldhomessurged.EconomistsatGoldmanSachscalculatethat,afteradjustingforseasonalpatterns,themedianhomepricehasfallenbyalmost4%sinceOctober.ExperiencefromBritainandAustraliashowsthatevenasoftlandingforhousepricescancauseanacuteslowdowninconsumerspending.
Americanconsumershavebeenthemainenginenotjustoftheirowneconomybutofthewholeworld's.Ifthatenginefails,willtheglobaleconomynose-dive?Afewyearsago,theanswerwouldprobablyhavebeenyes.Buttheglobaleconomymaynowbelessvulnerable.AttheWorldEconomicForuminDavoslastweek,JimO'Neill,thechiefeconomistatGoldmanSachs,arguedconvincinglythataslowdowninAmericaneednotleadtoasignificantgloballossofpower.
StartwithJapan,whereindustrialoutputjumpedbyanannualrateof11%inthefourthquarter.GoldmanSachshasraiseditsGDPgrowthforecastforthatquarter(theofficialnumberisdueonFebruary17th)toanannualized4.2%.Thatwouldpushyear-on-yeargrowthto3.9%,wellaheadofAmerica's3.1%.ThebankpredictsaverageGDPgrowthinJapanthisyearof2.7%.ItthinksstrongdemandwithinAsiawillpartlyoffsetanAmericanslowdown.
Japan'slabourmarketisalsostrengthening.InDecembertheratioofvacanciestojobapplicantsrosetoitshighestsince1992(seechart1).Itiseasiertofindajobnowthanatanytimesincethebubbleburstintheearly1990s.Strongerhiringbyfirmsisalsopushingupwagesafteryearsofdecline.Workersareenjoyingthebiggestriseinbonusesforoveradecade.
Passtheparcel
Onlineshoppersgiveparcelsfirmsanewleaseoflife
THINGSmustbegoingwellintheparcelsbusiness.At$2.5mfora30-secondTVcommercialduringlastweekend'sSuperBowl,anadfromFedExwastheonemanyAmericansfoundthemostentertaining.Itshowedacavemantryingtouseapterodactylforanexpressdelivery,onlytowatchitbegobbledupontake-offbyatyrannosaur.WhatdidtheworlddobeforeFedEx,theadinquired?ItmighthaveaskedwhatonearthFedExdidbeforethearrivalofonlineretailers,whichwouldthemselvesbesunkwithouttoday'sfastandefficientdeliveryfirms.
Consumersandcompaniescontinuetoflockindrovestotheinternettobuyandsellthings.FedExreporteditsbusiestperiodeverlastDecember,whenithandledalmost9mpackagesinasingleday.OnlineretailersalsosetnewrecordsinAmerica.Excludingtravel,some$82billionwasspentlastyearbuyingthingsovertheinternet,24%morethanin2004,accordingtocomScoreNetworks,whichtracksconsumerbehaviour.Onlinesalesofclothing,computersoftware,toys,andhomeandgardenproductswereallupbymorethan30%.Andmostofthisstuffwaseitherpostedordeliveredbyparcelcompanies.
Theboomisglobal,especiallynowthatmorecompaniesareoutsourcingproduction.Itisbecomingincreasinglycommonforproductstobedelivereddirectfromfactorytoconsumer.InoneeveningjustbeforeChristmas,arecord225,000internationalexpresspackageswerehandledbyUPSatagiantnewair-cargohub,openedbytheAmericanlogisticsfirmatCologneairportinGermany.“Theinternethashadaprofoundeffectonourbusiness,”saysDavidAbney,UPS'sinternationalpresident.UPSnowhandlesmorethan14mpackagesworldwideeveryday.
Itisstrikingthatpostalfirms—onceseenasobsoletebecauseoftheemergenceoftheinternet—arenowfindingsalvationfromit.Peoplearepayingmorebillsonlineandsendingmoree-mailsinsteadofletters,butmostpostofficesaremakingupforthatthankstoe-commerce.Afterfouryearsofprofits,theUnitedStatesPostalServicehasclearedits$11billionofdebt.
FirmssuchasAmazonandeBayhaveevenhelpedmakeBritain'sRoyalMailprofitable.Itneedstobe:onJanuary1st,theRoyalMaillostits350-year-oldmonopolyoncarryingletters.Itwillfacegrowingcompetitionfromrivals,suchasGermany'sDeutschePost,whichhasexpandedvigorouslyafterpartialprivatisationandnowownsDHL,anotherbiginternationaldeliverycompany.
Bothpostofficesandexpress-deliveryfirmshavedevelopedarangeofservicestohelpecommerceandeBay'straders—wholistedacolossal1.9billionitemsforsalelastyear.Amongthemostpopularservicesaretrackingnumbers,whichallowpeopletofollowtheprogressoftheirdeliveriesontheinternet.
Aquestionofstandards
Moresuggestionsofbadbehaviourbytobaccocompanies.Maybe
ANOTHERroundhasjustbeenfoughtinthebattlebetweentobaccocompaniesandthosewhoregardthemasspawnofthedevil.InapaperjustpublishedintheLancet,withtheprovocativetitle“Secretscience:tobaccoindustryresearchonsmokingbehaviourandcigarettetoxicity”,DavidHammond,ofWaterlooUniversityinCanadaandNeilCollishawandCynthiaCallard,twomembersofPhysiciansforaSmoke-FreeCanada,alobbygroup,criticisethebehaviourofBritishAmericanTobacco(BAT).Theysaythefirmconsideredmanipulatingsomeofitsproductsinordertomakethemlow-tarintheeyesofofficialdomwhiletheyactuallydeliveredhightarandnicotinelevelstosmokers.
Itwasandisnosecret,asBATpointsout,thatpeoplesmokelow-tarcigarettesdifferentlyfromhigh-tarones.Thereasonisthattheywantadecentdoseofthenicotinewhichtobaccosmokecontains.Theythereforepullalargervolumeofairthroughthecigarettewhentheydrawonalow-tarratherthanahigh-tarvariety.Theextravolumemakesupforthelowerconcentrationofthedrug.
Butaburningcigaretteisacomplexthing,andthatextravolumehassomeunexpectedconsequences.Inparticular,abiggerdrawisgenerallyafasterdraw.Thatpullsahigherproportionoftheairinhaledthroughtheburningtobacco,ratherthanthroughthepapersidesofthecigarette.This,inturn,meansmoresmokeperunitvolume,andthusmoretarandnicotine.Thenatureofthenicotinemaychange,too,withmoreofitbeinginaformthatiseasyforthebodytoabsorb.
AccordingtoDrHammondandhiscolleagues,aseriesofstudiesconductedbyBAT'sresearchersbetween1972and1994quantifiedmuchofthis.Thestandardisedwayofanalysingcigarettesmoke,aslaiddownbytheInternationalOrganisationforStandardisation(ISO),whichregulateseverythingfromcomputercodetogreenhousegases,usesamachinetomake35-millilitrepuffs,drawnfortwosecondsonceaminute.Thefirm'sresearchers,bycontrast,foundthatrealsmokersdraw50-70mlperpuff,anddosotwiceaminute.DrHammonds'sconclusionisdrawnfromthehugebodyofdocumentsdisgorgedbythetobaccoindustryaspartofvariouslegalsettlementsthathavetakenplaceinthepastfewyears,mainlyasaresultofdisputeswiththeauthoritiesin
theUnitedStates.
DrHammondsuggests,however,thefirmwentbeyondmerelyinvestigatinghowpeoplesmoked.Aseriesofinternaldocumentsfromthelate1970sandearly1980sshowsthatBATatleastthoughtaboutapplyingthisknowledgetocigarettedesign.Aresearchreportfrom1979putsitthus:“Therearethreemajordesignfeatureswhichcanbeusedeitherindividuallyorincombinationtomanipulatedeliverylevels;filtration,paperpermeability,andfilter-tipventilation.”Aconferencepaperfrom1983says,“Thechallengewouldbetoreducethemainstreamnicotinedeterminedbystandardsmoking-machinemeasurementwhileincreasingtheamountthatwouldactuallybeabsorbedbythesmoker”.Anotherconferencepaper,from1984,says:“Weshouldstrivetoachievethiseffectwithoutappearingtohaveacigarettethatcheatstheleaguetable.Ideallyitshouldappeartobenodifferentfromanormalcigarette...Itshouldalsobecapableofdeliveringupto100%morethanitsmachinedelivery.”
Thankstothebanks
Collegestudentslearnmoreaboutmarketrates
AGOODeducationmaybepriceless,butinAmericaitisfarfromcheap—anditisnotgettinganycheaper.OnFebruary1stCongressnarrowlypassedtheDeficitReductionAct,whichaimstoslimAmerica'sbulgingbudgetdeficitby,amongotherthings,lopping$12.7billionoffthefederalstudent-loanprogramme.Interestratesonstudentloanswillrisewhilesubsidiesfall.
Familyincomes,grantaidandfederalloanshaveallfailedtokeeppacewiththegrowthinthecostoftuition.“Thefundinggapbetweenwhatstudentscanaffordandwhathighereducationcostshasgotwiderandwider,”saysClaireMezzanotteofFitch,aratingsagency.Lendersarerushingtobridgethegapwith“private”studentloans—loansthatarefreeofgovernmentsubsidiesandguarantees.
Virtuallynon-existenttenyearsago,privatestudentloansinthe2004-05schoolyearamountedto$13.8billion—acompoundannualgrowthrateofalmost30%—andtheyareexpectedtodoubleinthenextthreeyears.AccordingtotheCollegeBoard,anassociationofschoolsandcolleges,privatestudentloansnowmakeupnearly22%ofthevolumeoffederalstudentloans,upfromamere5%in1994-95.
Thegrowthshowslittlesignofslowing.EducationcostscontinuetoclimbwhilepressureonCongresstoparedownthebudgetdeficitmeansfederalaidwill,atbest,stayatcurrentlevels.Meanwhile,thenumberofstudentsattendingcollegesandtradeschoolsisexpectedtosoarasthechildrenofpost-warbaby-boomerscontinuematriculating.
Privatestudentloansarepopularwithlendersbecausetheyareprofitable.Lenderschargemarketratesfortheloans(theratesonfederalstudentloansarecapped)beforeaddingup-frontfees,whichcanthemselvesbearound6-7%oftheloan.SallieMae,astudent-loancompanyandbyfarthebiggestdispenserofprivatestudentloans,disclosedinitsmostrecentreportthattheaveragespreadonitsprivatestudentlendingwas4.75%,morethanthreetimesthe1.31%itmadeonitsfederallybackedloans.
Allofthisisgoodnewswhenlendersarehungryfornewareasofgrowthinthefaceofacoolingmortgagemarket.Privatestudentloans,saysMatthewSnowlingofFriedman,Billings,Ramsey,aninvestmentbank,areprobably“thefastest-growingsegmentofconsumerfinance—andbyfarthemostprofitableone—atatimewhenfindingassetgrowthischallenging.”LastDecemberJ.P.Morgan,whichalreadyhadasizeableeducation-financeunit,snappedupCollegiateFundingServices,aVirginia-basedprovideroffederalandprivatestudentloans.CompaniesfromBankofAmericatoGMAC,thefinancingarmofGeneralMotors,havejumpedin.Otherconsumer-financecompanies,suchasCapitalOne,arewhisperedtobeeyeingthemarket.
Inthebeginning...
HowlifeonEarthgotgoingisstillmysterious,butnotforwantofideas
NEVERmakeforecasts,especiallyaboutthefuture.SamuelGoldwyn'swiseadviceiswellillustratedbyapairofscientificpaperspublishedin1953.Bothwerethoughtbytheirauthorstobemilestonesonthepathtothesecretoflife,butonlyonehassofaramountedtomuch,anditwasnottheonethatcaughtthepublicimaginationatthetime.
JamesWatsonandFrancisCrick,whowrote“Astructurefordeoxyribosenucleicacid”,havebecomeasfamousasrockstarsforaskinghowlifeworksandtherebystartingalineofinquirythatledtotheHumanGenomeProject.StanleyMiller,bycontrast,thoughlaudedbyhispeers,languishesinobscurityasfarasthewiderworldisconcerned.Yetwhenitappeared,“ProductionofaminoacidsunderpossibleprimitiveEarthconditions”wasexpectedtobeginascientificprocessthatwouldsolveaprobleminsomewaysmoreprofoundthanhowlifeworksatthemoment—namelyhowitgotgoinginthefirstplaceonthesurfaceofasterilerock150mkmfromasmall,unregardedyellowstar.
DrMillerwasthefirsttoaddressthisquestionexperimentally.InspiredbyoneofCharlesDarwin'sideas,thattheingredientsoflifemighthaveformedbychemicalreactionsina“warm,littlepond”,hemixedthegasesthenthoughttohaveformedtheatmosphereoftheprimitiveEarth—methane,ammoniaandhydrogen—inaflaskhalf-fullofboilingwater,andpassedelectricsparks,mimickinglightning,throughthemforseveraldaystoseewhatwouldhappen.Whathappened,asthenameofthepapersuggests,wasaminoacids,thebuildingblocksofproteins.Theoriginoflifethenseemedwithingrasp.Butithaseludedresearcherseversince.Theyarestilllooking,though,andthisweekseveralofthemmetattheRoyalSociety,inLondon,toreviewprogress.
Theoriginquestionisreallythreesub-questions.Oneis,wheredidtherawmaterialsforlifecomefrom?ThatiswhatDrMillerwasasking.Thesecondis,howdidthoserawmaterialsspontaneouslyassemblethemselvesintothefirstobjecttowhichtheterm“alive”mightreasonablybeapplied?Thethirdis,how,havingoncecomeintoexistence,diditsurviveconditionsintheearlysolarsystem?
ThefirstquestionwasaddressedbyPatrickThaddeus,oftheHarvard-SmithsonianCentreforAstrophysics,andMaxBernstein,whoworksattheAmeslaboratory,inCalifornia,partofAmerica'sspaceagency,NASA.AsDrBernsteinsuccinctlyputit,thechemicalrawmaterialsforlife,intheformofsimplecompoundsthatcouldthenbeassembledintomorecomplexbiomolecules,couldcomefromabove,beloworbeyond.
Fulltobursting
Risinglevelsofcarbondioxidewilldumpevenmorewaterintotheoceans
THElungsoftheplanet,namelygreen-leafedplantsthatbreatheincarbondioxideandbreatheoutoxygen,alsoputwatervapourintotheatmosphere.Justaspeoplelosewaterthroughbreathing(thinkofthemistedmirrorusedtocheckforvitalsigns),so,too,doplants.Thequestionis,whateffectwillrisingconcentrationsofcarbondioxidehaveonthis?Theanswer,publishedinthisweek'sNaturebyNicolaGedneyofBritain'sMeteorologicalOfficeandhercolleagues,wouldappeartobe,lesswaterintheatmosphereandmoreintheoceans.
Measurementsofthevolumeofwaterthatriversreturntotheoceansshowthat,aroundtheworld,rivershavebecomefulleroverthepastcentury.Intheory,therearemanyreasonswhythiscouldbeso,butsomehavealreadybeendiscounted.Researchhasestablished,forexample,thatitisnot,overall,raining—orsnowing,hailingorsleeting—anymorethanitusedto.Butthereareotherpossibilities.Oneconcernschangesinlanduse,suchasdeforestationandurbanisation.Thesoilinruralareassoaksuptherainandtreesbreatheitbackintotheatmosphere,whereastheconcreteinurbanareastransfersrainwaterintodrainsandhenceintorivers.Anotherpossibilityis“solardimming”,inwhichaerosolparticlescreateahazyatmospherethatholdslesswater.Andthenthereisthedirecteffectofcarbondioxideonplanttranspiration.
DrGedneyusedastatisticaltechniquecalled“optimalfingerprinting”or“detectionandattribution”toidentifywhichofthesefourfactorsmatter.Herteamcarriedoutfivesimulationsofriverflowinthe20thcentury.Inthefirstofthesetheyallowedallfourexplanationstovary:rainfall,haze,atmosphericcarbondioxideandlanduse.Theythenheldoneofthemconstantineachofthenextfoursimulations.Bycomparingtheoutcomeofeachofthesewiththefirstsimulation,theteamgainedasenseofitspartintheoverallpicture.So,forexample,theyinferredtheroleoflandusebydeductingthesimulationinwhichitwasfixedfromthesimulationinwhichitvaried.
Aswithanystatisticalanalysis,theresultsareonlyasgoodasthemodel,theexperimentaldesignandthedata.DrGedneyandhercolleaguesacknowledgethattheirmodeldoesnotfullytakeintoaccounttheuseofwatertoirrigatecrops—particularlyimportantinAsiaandEurope—northequestionofurbangrowth.Theyargue,however,thattheseaspects,takentogether,wouldremovewaterfromrivers,whichmakestheirconclusionallthemorestriking.Anditisthis:fullerriverscannotbeexplainedbymorerainfallorhazeorchangesinlanduse,buttheycanbeexplainedbyhigherconcentrationsofatmosphericcarbondioxide.
Themechanismisstraightforward.Aplantbreathesthroughsmallholes,calledstomata,foundinitsleaves.Plantstakeincarbondioxide,andwhentheatmosphereisrelativelyrichinthisgas,lesseffortisneeded.Thestomatastayclosedforlonger,andlesswaterislosttotheatmosphere.Thismeansthattheplantdoesn'tneedtodrawasmuchmoisturefromthesoil.Theunusedwaterflowsintorivers.
Thegreattechbuy-outboom
Willtheenthusiasmofprivate-equityfirmsforinvestingintechnologyandtelecomsendintears,again?
PRIMECOMPUTERS,RhythmNetConnectionsandXOCommunications—allnamestodrainthebloodfromthefaceofaprivate-equityinvestor.Orsoitwasuntilrecently,wheninvestingintechnologyandtelecomssuddenlybecamealltherageforprivate-equitycompanies.Theseinvestmentfirms—labelled“locusts”byunfriendlyEuropeans—generallymaketheirmoneybybuyingbigcontrollingstakesincompanies,improvingtheirefficiency,andthensellingthemon.
Inthelate1980s,PrimeComputersbecameprivateequity'sfirstgreat“techwreck”,humiliatinginvestorswhothoughttheyunderstoodthetechnologybusinessandcouldnurturethefirmbacktohealthawayfromtheshorttermistpressuresofthepublicstockmarket.AfterPrimefailed,private-equityfirmsspentthebestpartofadecadefocusingsolelyontheoldeconomy.Onlyinthelate1990s,whentheneweconomywasalltherage,didtheypluckupthecouragetoreturntotechandtelecoms—adecisionsomeofthegrandestnamesintheindustryweresoontoregret.Hicks,Muse,FurstandTate(RhythmNetConnections)andForstmannLittle(XO)havebothbeenshadowsoftheiroldselvessincelosingfortunesontelecoms.
Now,investingintechnologyandtelecomsisonceagainoneofthehottestareasinthesuper-heatedprivateequitymarket.Themulti-billion-dollarquestionis:willthisroundofinvestmentendanylesshorriblythantheprevioustwo?
LastmonthTDC,aDanishphonecompany,wasfinallyacquiredafterabidof$15.3billionbyaconsortiumincludingEuropeangiantsPermiraAdvisorsandApaxPartners,andAmericanveteransKohlbergKravisRoberts(KKR),BlackstoneGroupandProvidenceEquityPartners.Inthepastfiveyears,therehasbeenprivate-equityinvolvementinabout40%oftelecomsdealsinEurope.
OntheothersideoftheAtlantic,theactionhasfocusedmainlyontechnology,ratherthantelecoms.Lastsummer,aconsortiumincludingSilverLakePartnersandKKRcompletedthebiggestprivate-equitytechdealtodate,buyingSunGardDataSystems,afinancial-technologyfirm,for$11.3billion.Sincethenthedealshavecontinuedtoflow.The$1.2billionacquisitionofSerenaSoftwarebySilverLakeisduetobecompletedbytheendofMarch.BlackstoneandothersaresaidtobecirclingtwoIToutsourcingfirms—ComputerSciencesandACS.
Therearereasonstohopethatthistimewillbedifferent.Intelecoms,forinstance,private-equityfirmsaremostlytryingtobuyestablishedfirms—oftenformernationalmonopolists—that,whiletheymightbethreatenedbyinternettelephony,havestrongcashflow,physicalassetsandplentyofscopetoimprovethequalityofmanagement.Thesearethesortsofcharacteristicsprivate-equityinvestorsthriveon.Bycontrast,thedisastrousinvestmentsinthelate1990swereinnewtelecomsfirmsthatwerebuildingtheiroperations.
Intechnology,private-equityinteresthasgrownastheindustryhasmatured,andcash-flowandprofitabilityhavebecomemorepredictable.Untilrecently,ithasbeenthenormfortechfirmstoploughbackalltheirprofitandcashflowintoinvestinginthebusiness.Theyhavecarriednodebtandpaidnodividends.Nowprivate-equityfirmsseetheopportunitytopursuetheirclassicstrategyofbuyingfirmsbyborrowingagainstcashflow,andthenreturningmoneytoshareholders.GlennHutchinsofSilverLakethinksthetechsectorisnowinasimilarconditiontotheoldeconomyinAmericaintheearly1980s,whichiswhenprivateequityfirststartedtohaveanimpact,byrestructuringandconsolidatingmanyindustries.
Howtoliveforever
Thelatestfromthewackyworldofanti-senescencetherapy
DEATHisafactoflife—atleastithasbeensofar.Humansgrowold.Fromearlyadulthood,performancestartstowane.Musclesbecomeprogressivelyweaker,cognitionfails.Butthepointatwhichageturnstoillhealthand,ultimately,deathisshifting—thatis,peopleareremaininghealthierforlonger.Andthatraisesthequestionofhowdeathmightbepostponed,andwhetheritmightbepostponedindefinitely.
Humansarecertainlylivinglonger.AnAmericanchildbornin1970couldexpecttolive70.8years.By2000,thathadincreasedto77years.Moreover,anadultstillaliveattheageof75in2002couldexpectafurther11.5yearsoflife.
Muchofthischangehasbeentheresultofimprovednutritionandbettermedicine.Buttoexperienceahealthyoldagealsoinvolvesmaintainingphysicalandmentalfunction.Age-relatednon-pathologicalchangesinthebrain,muscles,joints,immunesystem,lungsandheartmustbeminimised.Thesechangesarecalled“senescence”.
Researchshowsthatexercisecanhelptomaintainphysicalfunctionlateinlifeandthatexercisingone'sbraincanlimittheprogressionofsenescence.Otherwork—ontheeffectsofcaloricrestriction,consumingredwineandalteringgenesinyeast,miceandnematodes—hasshownpromiseinslowingsenescence.
TheapproachadvocatedbyAubreydeGreyoftheUniversityofCambridge,inEngland,andpresentedatlastweek'smeetingoftheAmericanAssociationfortheAdvancementofScience,israthermoreradical.Asanengineer,hefavoursinterveningdirectlytorepairthechangesinthebodythatarecausedbyageing.Thisisanapproachhedubs“strategiesforeng
温馨提示
- 1. 本站所有资源如无特殊说明,都需要本地电脑安装OFFICE2007和PDF阅读器。图纸软件为CAD,CAXA,PROE,UG,SolidWorks等.压缩文件请下载最新的WinRAR软件解压。
- 2. 本站的文档不包含任何第三方提供的附件图纸等,如果需要附件,请联系上传者。文件的所有权益归上传用户所有。
- 3. 本站RAR压缩包中若带图纸,网页内容里面会有图纸预览,若没有图纸预览就没有图纸。
- 4. 未经权益所有人同意不得将文件中的内容挪作商业或盈利用途。
- 5. 人人文库网仅提供信息存储空间,仅对用户上传内容的表现方式做保护处理,对用户上传分享的文档内容本身不做任何修改或编辑,并不能对任何下载内容负责。
- 6. 下载文件中如有侵权或不适当内容,请与我们联系,我们立即纠正。
- 7. 本站不保证下载资源的准确性、安全性和完整性, 同时也不承担用户因使用这些下载资源对自己和他人造成任何形式的伤害或损失。
最新文档
- 2024年新疆客运从业资格证操作考试流程图
- 花店装修购销合同模板
- 废溶剂运输回收协议
- 高层住宅楼外立面翻新合同
- 蔬菜种植基地直销合同样本
- 机械设备出口海运协议模板
- 美术馆外立面装修工程合同
- 学妈妈课件图片
- 气体危险品运输合作协议
- 电信设备配送员协议
- 供应商质量管理提升计划
- 2024年入团积极分子培训考试题库及答案
- GB/T 19964-2024光伏发电站接入电力系统技术规定
- 疼痛护理读书报告
- 测序保密合同
- 职业规划中的职业发展风险控制
- 部编版语文四年级上册第五单元大单元教学设计核心素养目标
- 水务稽查培训课件教学
- 公司业务线管理手册
- 阴道炎护理查房
- 小学科学教学课例《像火箭那样驱动小车》课程思政核心素养教学设计及总结反思
评论
0/150
提交评论