2023Q3家电板块财报综述：稳健增长趋势延续外销表现较超预期

稳健增长趋势延续，外销表现较超预期收入表现跟Q2接近，外销较超预期，内销弱平稳。业绩保持双位数增23Q3白电板块收入同比+8.67%，Q2为+9.46%；业绩同比+13在提速，主营增速平稳；出口占比高的二线白电，主营增速较快。后续白电内需展望较为平稳，空调龙头份额有望企稳改善，白电外销预计延续较因此品类对应龙头财务表现也有所分化，其中石头科技、萤石网络主营增销普遍高增，主因低基数且需求好于预期；内销相对疲弱，环比降速。盈导致盈利承压明显。后续来看，由于外销订单反馈总体较好，加上基数走管今年家电绝对及相对收益均较突出，但目前板块公募重仓比例及估值水 2请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明1.家电整体：稳健增长趋势延续，外销表现较超预期 4 63.黑电：产品升级大势所趋，面板成本压力或有减轻 10 125.智慧家居：景气分化显著，后续战略动见观瞻 166.小家电：外销增速超预期，内销竞争白热化 197.家电上游：主业稳健转型突破，盈利能力持续修复 23 26 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 14 14 14 14 14 14图表41：23Q3后周期板块销售/研发费用率分别+ 15 15 15 16 17 17 17 17图表50：23Q3智慧家居板块销售/管理/财务费用率分别+1.21/-0.65/+2.05pct18 18 18 18 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 23 24 24 24 24 24 25 25图表73：23Q3家电上游板块上市公司毛利率、归母净利润及 264请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明提升幅度均超过3pct，白电毛利率同比+1.54pc盈利能力连续7Q改善——家电23Q3归母净利润率同比+0.34pct至8.31%，+13.38%的业绩增速，白电延续高质量回款；合同负债-8.94%,对后续主营仍有支撑；存货同环4,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000500013Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q113Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q360%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%13Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q113Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q3543210-1-2-3-4-5120%100%80% 60%40% 20% 0%-20%-40%-60%13Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q3白电13Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q3销售费用率管理费用率研发费用率财务费用率期间费用率25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%13Q314Q113Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q32023Q1-Q32023Q3费用率同比变动费用率同比变动白电黑电后周期智慧家居小家电家电上游合计销售管理研发财务期间销售管理研发财务期间销售管理研发财务期间销售管理研发财务期间10.26%3.31%3.51%-0.67%16.41%0.830.140.090.011.0810.61%3.58%3.64%-0.59%17.24%0.760.14(0.02)0.090.974.78%1.69%3.39%0.03%9.88%(0.15)(0.12)0.12(0.04)(0.20)4.77%1.53%3.37%0.34%10.00%(0.13)(0.25)(0.01)0.530.1516.52%4.00%4.06%-1.07%23.51%1.130.22(0.08)0.101.3617.23%4.34%3.94%-1.04%24.46%0.570.26(0.53)0.190.4822.97%4.09%8.47%-0.94%34.59%3.07(0.32)0.740.253.7422.73%3.89%8.29%0.09%35.01%1.21(0.65)0.142.052.7512.19%4.32%3.68%-1.12%19.07%1.490.210.300.982.9711.35%4.18%3.58%-0.12%18.98%0.15(0.23)0.013.563.492.52%4.23%4.22%0.02%10.98%0.230.290.280.551.352.73%4.57%4.65%0.97%12.92%0.240.250.242.232.969.73%3.29%3.69%-0.59%16.11%0.740.110.130.121.109.97%3.47%3.79%-0.35%16.88%0.580.07(0.01)0.561.20成本类型原材料汇率海运6请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明白电黑电后周期智慧家居小家电家电上游27.03%14.06%43.22%45.50%29.28%18.79%28.04%14.50%45.03%46.15%28.69%20.92%0.41白电黑电后周期智慧家居小家电家电上游27.03%14.06%43.22%45.50%29.28%18.79%28.04%14.50%45.03%46.15%28.69%20.92%0.410.651.350.69(1.82)0.578.89%3.40%17.50%10.07%7.59%6.42%0.540.511.63(0.77)(0.41)0.271.870.633.852.182.172.591.540.603.383.540.822.818.64%2.95%17.40%10.87%8.20%5.98%382931.01%151232.70%2828-0.55%9722.82%433716.77%151222.72%合计27.03%26.08%8.12%8.31%0.341.800.441.58同比21.88%13.56%-2.79%26.61%-20.55%-8.04%18.10%同比-7.28%6.06%-17.17%1.15%-6.28%-2.00%-5.01%环比-10.40%5.00%-5.11%6.18%-1.39%-3.11%-8.94%环比-4.19%-0.46%1.27%9.37%-0.50%0.20%-2.43%2022-09-305053624824156122023-09-3061641231019147222022-09-301,28726662741331511,9732023-09-301,19428251751241481,874400040%20Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q3543210毛利率归母净利润（亿元）归母净利润率2023Q1-Q3同比2023Q3同比2023Q1-Q32022Q1-Q3同比2023Q32022Q3同比2023Q1-Q3同比2023Q3同比6536756566585915.44%14.29%-6.34%22619813.87%232113.84%1821-11.32%30727113.77%8847771330727113.77%884777经营活动现金流净额（亿元）其末合同负债（亿元）期末存货（亿元）2023Q1-Q32022Q1-Q3经营活动现金流净额（亿元）其末合同负债（亿元）期末存货（亿元）2023Q32022Q3同比白电1,11069559.81%37827537.84%黑电3880-51.88%2435-31.68%后周期9644117.25%292419.39%智慧家居3210207.17%102361.14%小家电72686.00%2833-15.29%家电上游493059.71%211361.81%合计1,39792750.65%49138228.46%比+13.87%至226亿,23Q2为+17.74%。收入增速跟Q2接近，主要是家用空调环比降20Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q3300025002000060%40%20%0%-10%-20%-30%自有品牌业务为主的海尔，近几期的财务费用波动主要受海外加息影合同负债和其他流动负债也均处于历史偏高水平，表内存货及渠道存货水平总体较为良性，预计会对后续主营和利润形成2023Q1-Q32022Q1-Q3同比2023Q32022Q3同比美的集团2,911.112,703.677.67%941.22877.067.32%海尔智家1,986.571,847.497.53%670.31628.916.58%格力电器1,550.071,474.895.10%557.71522.676.70%海信家电649.00570.2613.81%219.56187.1917.29%长虹美菱191.68153.7524.66%63.3951.5123.07%澳柯玛72.1272.63-0.71%21.1322.34-5.41%奥马电器80.9359.2836.53%28.9320.0144.57%惠而浦29.6333.42-11.34%9.398.964.83%海容冷链24.9823.177.83%4.894.2614.77%申菱环境18.6215.5619.61%7.124.7649.77%美埃科技10.728.3827.89%4.202.7254.79%冰山冷热36.0220.4476.22%12.757.5269.43%合计7,561.456,982.948.28%2,540.592,337.898.67%8请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明100%75%50%25%0%-25%-50%冰箱内销出货量YOY多联机内销出货额YOY13Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q3冰箱内销出货量YOY多联机内销出货额YOY13Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q3洗衣机内销出货量YOY空调全渠道零售量YOY冰箱全渠道零售量YOY15Q115Q316Q1空调全渠道零售量YOY冰箱全渠道零售量YOY15Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q320Q120Q321Q121Q322Q323Q123Q3洗衣机全渠道零售量YOY40%20%0%-20%-40%白电毛利率13Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q313Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q332%30%28.04%28%26%24%22%20%75%50%25%0%-25%-50%空调外销出货量YOY洗衣机外销出货量YOY13Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q1空调外销出货量YOY洗衣机外销出货量YOY13Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q3多联机外销出货额YOY20%0%-10%-20%-30%15Q115Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q320Q120Q321Q121Q322Q323Q123Q3空调全渠道零售均价YOY冰箱全渠道零售均价YOY洗衣机全渠道零售均价YOY销售费用率管理费用率研发费用率财务费用率期间费用率30%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%13Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q312Q112Q313Q114Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q120Q321Q122Q122Q323Q123Q313Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q3美的集团海尔智家格力电器海信家电长虹美菱澳柯玛奥马电器惠而浦海容冷链申菱环境美埃科技冰山冷热12Q112Q313Q114Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q120Q321Q122Q122Q323Q123Q313Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q3美的集团海尔智家格力电器海信家电长虹美菱澳柯玛奥马电器惠而浦海容冷链申菱环境美埃科技冰山冷热10.08%6.24%13.30%4.23%2.22%1.57%6.77%-2.30%17.61%8.72%12.37%1.14%27.12%31.25%30.13%23.21%14.64%14.07%27.66%15.14%35.83%26.85%29.33%17.54%2.230.223.711.620.81(0.79)5.823.996.36(0.16)(1.00)4.000.470.300.551.861.55(0.59)1.842.732.66(0.78)1.771.6025.84%30.71%29.25%22.10%13.45%13.81%28.00%15.40%29.75%28.17%28.33%16.93%9.52%6.62%12.96%3.74%2.60%1.50%7.37%0.48%14.24%8.00%12.03%2.00%2.490.192.690.23(0.50)0.970.361.967.93(3.93)(1.22)3.670.420.330.221.830.24(0.21)(1.84)4.841.951.624.084.0037.1741.8512.72%116.66131.4912.61%126.76%10.70106.49%9.2824.264.501.52-16.32%1.080.40-28.68%0.330.14-0.75-118.81%-0.22-0.64-66.29%1.491.379.03%0.620.3484.09%0.720.08795.39%0.14-0.22-167.17%合计27.03%1.8728.04%1.548.64%0.548.89%0.41费用率同比变动费用率同比变动2023Q32023Q1-Q32023Q3期间14.78%22.79%13.26%15.63%9.43%12.26%9.66%11.19%10.59%19.10%15.63%13.38%研发3.44%4.05%3.37%2.95%2.16%2.39%期间14.78%22.79%13.26%15.63%9.43%12.26%9.66%11.19%10.59%19.10%15.63%13.38%研发3.44%4.05%3.37%2.95%2.16%2.39%3.39%4.07%3.13%4.70%4.95%3.20%财务-0.57%-0.05%-1.76%-0.48%-0.56%0.00%-1.23%-2.66%-1.43%0.69%0.29%0.72%管理3.21%4.11%3.08%2.42%1.39%1.91%3.65%2.71%2.93%7.01%3.83%4.78%管理0.23(0.07)0.380.05(0.41)0.29(0.26)(0.10)0.180.29(0.52)(0.53)管理0.37(0.09)0.31(0.15)(0.88)0.24(0.08)0.760.74(3.28)(2.06)0.29研发0.14(0.04)(0.25)0.10(0.33)0.57(0.98)0.52(0.61)0.301.250.88销售8.73%15.51%8.74%11.25%7.07%8.86%3.75%7.10%9.69%6.76%5.83%5.53%期间15.92%23.91%12.93%16.70%10.86%13.77%11.22%13.23%18.95%18.05%14.32%15.35%研发0.140.010.140.11(0.35)0.27(0.71)1.400.300.310.720.63财务0.210.29(0.70)(0.31)(0.05)0.30(0.16)2.680.740.12(0.91)0.30研发3.62%4.50%3.00%3.07%2.36%2.72%3.73%3.93%4.76%5.03%5.23%3.65%销售1.32(0.22)2.18(1.30)(1.01)1.39(0.22)0.232.94(2.00)(2.78)0.61财务-0.32%-0.15%-1.99%-0.11%0.12%0.06%0.29%-0.72%-0.56%0.68%-0.28%0.77%销售0.87(0.20)2.91(0.51)(0.60)0.94(0.29)0.981.57(0.58)(0.27)0.17期间1.930.181.41(1.31)(1.78)3.180.719.558.56(5.39)(5.34)2.12管理3.90%4.05%3.17%2.50%1.31%2.13%3.45%2.91%5.06%5.59%3.54%5.40%财务0.110.53(0.83)0.040.440.982.008.055.49(0.41)(1.75)0.35期间1.450.032.74(0.66)(1.41)1.81(1.42)4.962.790.14(0.97)0.57美的集团海尔智家美的集团海尔智家格力电器海信家电长虹美菱澳柯玛奥马电器惠而浦海容冷链申菱环境美埃科技冰山冷热14.68%8.57%10.73%6.44%7.97%3.85%7.07%5.96%6.72%6.56%4.68%合计合计10.26%3.31%3.51%-0.67%16.41%0.830.140.090.011.0810.61%3.58%3.64%-0.59%17.24%0.760.14(0.02)0.090.97300250200500归母净利润（亿元）同比200%150%100%-50%-100%白电归母净利率12%10%8%6%4%2%0%毛利率归母净利润（亿元）归母净利润率2023Q1-Q3同比2023Q3同比2023Q1-Q32022Q1-Q3同比2023Q32022Q3同比2023Q1-Q3同比2023Q3同比277.17200.924.995.973.561.29244.70183.041.623.282.680.8613.27%9.77%207.51%81.88%32.58%49.97%94.8574.191.411.960.860.5284.7468.381.021.720.670.2311.93%8.50%38.20%13.64%29.07%131.07%653.09653.09565.7615.44%225.81198.3013.87%10经营活动现金流净额（亿元）其末合同负债（亿元）期末存货（亿元）环比-2.01%-9.92%-18.19%-32.30%-12.91%-0.74%28.50%20.62%-6.16%-5.24%15.64%-8.27%经营活动现金流净额（亿元）其末合同负债（亿元）期末存货（亿元）环比-2.01%-9.92%-18.19%-32.30%-12.91%-0.74%28.50%20.62%-6.16%-5.24%15.64%-8.27%-10.40%同比20.17%-8.24%38.18%1.05%-22.50%-2.55%-7.11%-36.31%-1.41%-0.61%18.91%48.68%21.88%环比-0.93%2.10%-11.47%-14.18%-21.72%-7.08%-2.75%-2.78%5.68%6.90%-5.01%3.24%-4.19%同比-8.69%1.53%-17.18%-11.90%-7.72%20.80%18.06%11.37%11.11%14.13%-10.22%55.88%-7.28%2023-09-30290.4156.31237.0212.743.102.102.080.340.472.601.597.14615.912023-09-30333.79398.48335.8352.2218.0110.438.583.945.126.964.1116.151,193.632022-09-30241.6661.37171.5312.613.992.162.240.540.482.621.334.80505.342022-09-30365.54392.48405.4759.2719.528.647.263.544.616.104.5810.361,287.372023Q1-Q32023Q1-Q3447.87132.03395.9687.0124.061.8719.09-0.424.21-0.470.87-1.661,1102022Q1-Q3294.72112.05224.5941.1318.390.592.773.280.400.17-0.30-2.95695美的集团海尔智家格力电器海信家电长虹美菱澳柯玛奥马电器惠而浦海容冷链申菱环境美埃科技冰山冷热合计2022Q380.7852.4193.1433.9312.641.17-0.05-0.432.27-0.08-0.18-1.05274.552023Q3150.0264.1387.3648.899.963.1610.380.593.90-0.090.53-0.39378.43同比51.96%17.83%76.31%111.56%30.83%217.29%589.67%-112.90% 同比85.73%22.36%-6.20%44.10%-21.23%169.14% 59.81%37.84%71.47%-------利率、费用率及归母净利率分别同比+0.60、20Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q313Q314Q120Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q313Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q3400020Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q360%40%20%0%LCD电视内销量-YOYLCD电视外销量-YOY30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%黑电毛利率20%18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%2023Q1-Q32022Q1-Q3同比2023Q32022Q3同比海信视像392.26325.1120.65%143.51122.9716.71%四川长虹700.60671.124.39%234.16231.631.09%兆驰股份126.87109.5315.84%49.5238.4328.85%创维数字76.2890.29-15.52%24.5827.89-11.88%合计1,296.011,196.058.36%451.77420.927.33%25020002019-012019-032019-012019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-09销售费用率管理费用率研发费用率财务费用率期间费用率18%16%14%12%10%8% 6%4% 2%0%-2%13Q314Q113Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q31213Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q3海信视像四川长虹兆驰股份创维数字(0.77)1.082.31(1.41)(1.42)1.252.49(1.17)(0.05)0.861.64(2.43)16.99%11.38%18.21%13Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q3海信视像四川长虹兆驰股份创维数字(0.77)1.082.31(1.41)(1.42)1.252.49(1.17)(0.05)0.861.64(2.43)16.99%11.38%18.21%16.74%16.63%12.05%18.70%16.88%4.15%0.68%10.02%5.87%4.12%1.18%10.86%5.30%0.750.351.98(1.96)4.792.26111.69%2.770.74273.17%4.487.07-36.65%1.302.15-39.59%合计14.06%0.6314.50%0.602.95%0.513.40%0.652023Q1-Q32022Q1-Q3同比2023Q32022Q3同比海信视像23.8238.63-38.34%17.065.15231.16%四川长虹3.895.38-27.67%6.9528.44-75.57%兆驰股份8.3222.70-63.34%1.24-0.26-创维数字2.3212.99-82.14%-1.281.73-173.95%合计38.3579.70-51.88%23.9635.07-31.68%同比环比-19.04%10.70%-18.92%-24.02%5.00%同比29.56%-0.04%14.64%1.74%6.06%环比2.62%-3.08%6.86%10.39%-0.46%2022-09-304.4629.230.671.4835.832023-09-303.5035.010.831.3540.692022-09-3043.02185.0621.9416.19266.222023-09-3055.74184.9925.1516.47282.352023Q1-Q32023Q3费用率同比变动费用率同比变动海信视像四川长虹兆驰股份创维数字销售管理研发财务期间销售管理研发财务期间销售管理研发财务期间销售管理研发财务期间6.47%1.70%4.39%-0.03%12.53%(0.98)0.15(0.23)0.05(1.00)5.98%1.45%4.16%0.15%11.73%(0.95)0.09(0.32)0.42(0.77)4.36%1.82%2.44%0.14%8.76%0.17(0.17)0.19(0.10)0.084.70%1.76%2.54%0.40%9.40%0.51(0.32)0.130.120.441.88%0.93%4.14%0.38%7.33%0.16(0.50)0.070.19(0.07)1.46%0.53%3.76%1.00%6.75%(0.55)(0.70)(0.21)2.631.174.77%1.67%5.78%-1.35%10.87%(0.51)(0.15)0.70(0.52)(0.48)5.02%1.80%5.91%-0.56%12.16%(0.72)(0.06)0.161.330.71合计4.78%1.69%3.39%0.03%9.88%(0.15)(0.12)0.12(0.04)(0.20)4.77%1.53%3.37%0.34%10.00%(0.13)(0.25)(0.01)0.530.152050-5-10归母净利润（亿元）同比22Q316Q116Q317Q123Q115Q313Q322Q316Q116Q317Q123Q115Q314Q114Q315Q1 17Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q120Q321Q121Q322Q123Q3400%300%200%100%0%-100%-200%-300%-400%归母净利率5%4%3%2%1%0%-1%-2%-3%-4%毛利率归母净利润（亿元）归母净利润率2023Q1-Q3同比2023Q3同比2023Q1-Q32022Q1-Q3同比2023Q32022Q3同比2023Q1-Q3同比2023Q3同比16.2811.0747.08%5.915.1315.19%12.728.8144.40%5.383.5451.74%38.2738.2729.2131.01%15.3611.5732.70%经营活动现金流净额（亿元）经营活动现金流净额（亿元）其末合同负债（亿元）期末存货（亿元）-21.37%19.76%23.80%-8.45%13.56%4.后周期：收入维稳，降本增效驱动盈利提升13用率及归母净利润率分别同比+3.38、+0.48及+1.35pct，主动降本增效推动毛利率上升，费用控制较好，减值虽然蚕食部分利润，但盈利能力提升幅度领衔行业。费用率Q1-Q3/Q3同比+1.36/+0.48pct。在此背景下，后周期归属净利率Q1-务不断放量，综合份额提升驱动表现领先，Q3收入同比+10但未恢复至前期水平。1413Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q313Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q113Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q313Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q3400营业收入（亿元）同比80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%20Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q3油烟机内销出货量YOY集成灶内销出货量增速YOY油烟机内销出货量YOY集成灶内销出货量增速YOY20Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q360%40%20%-20%-40%毛利率50%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%13Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q113Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q32023Q1-Q32022Q1-Q3同比2023Q32022Q3同比老板电器79.3372.379.62%29.9827.937.37%华帝股份44.3142.594.03%15.5114.566.56%万和电气44.1350.76-13.07%13.4312.477.73%火星人15.7116.42-4.32%5.476.18-11.54%浙江美大12.6113.98-9.76%4.895.66-13.56%亿田智能9.449.62-1.93%3.273.52-7.15%帅丰电器6.237.09-12.09%1.692.50-32.48%公牛集团116.07104.7410.81%40.1436.3610.40%欧普照明55.1452.065.92%19.7018.476.66%合计382.97369.633.61%134.09127.655.05%图表38：23Q3住宅销售及竣工面积分房屋竣工面积:住宅:YOY商品房销售面积:住宅:YOY80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%销售费用率管理费用率研发费用率财务费用率期间费用率35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%1513Q113Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q3老板电器华帝股份万和电气火星人浙江美大亿田智能帅丰电器公牛集团欧普照明(0.07)2.556.594.465.02(1.79)0.905.713.57(0.14)3.6613Q113Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q3老板电器华帝股份万和电气火星人浙江美大亿田智能帅丰电器公牛集团欧普照明(0.07)2.556.594.465.02(1.79)0.905.713.57(0.14)3.661.112.834.550.58(4.18)1.221.601.410.575.643.072.752.581.964.975.2217.31%8.12%12.67%14.17%28.81%18.55%22.34%24.24%11.95%18.12%6.36%10.84%15.84%29.73%14.72%15.05%24.69%13.30%52.19%42.61%35.59%49.44%48.33%46.06%47.47%44.65%40.84%52.03%41.79%32.31%48.01%47.37%49.66%47.79%41.95%39.14%0.261.531.940.842.151.820.921.692.23151.55%28.16%2.813.600.990.392.232.191.70%0.870.807.67%1.751.618.76%0.480.50-3.36%28.1323.6119.13%9.918.5416.13%合计43.22%3.8545.03%3.3817.40%1.6317.50%1.35费用率同比变动费用率同比变动图表41：23Q3后周期板块销售/研发费用率分别+0.57/2023Q32023Q1-Q32023Q3期间32.42%33.62%22.93%32.99%13.79%32.45%32.57%13.84%26.07%财务-1.33%-0.16%-1.16%-1.19%-1.63%-1.39%-3.79%-0.72%-1.58%期间32.42%33.62%22.93%32.99%13.79%32.45%32.57%13.84%26.07%财务-1.33%-0.16%-1.16%-1.19%-1.63%-1.39%-3.79%-0.72%-1.58%财务-1.22%-0.14%-1.40%-1.50%-0.37%-1.67%-5.13%-0.72%-1.48%销售(0.20)(4.02)4.770.08(1.58)2.613.900.363.62期间0.82(1.80)5.461.92(0.89)2.171.411.330.86管理0.050.510.761.050.370.70(0.33)0.12(0.45)财务0.960.330.81(0.73)0.15(0.52)(2.06)(0.16)(0.29)研发研发3.52%3.95%3.96%5.81%3.24%4.82%4.56%3.68%5.29%期间33.28%32.45%19.01%33.04%13.99%30.18%23.34%13.56%25.18%研发3.55%3.53%2.97%5.86%3.15%4.58%7.15%3.69%5.30%期间1.12(4.93)4.782.14(0.42)2.769.31(0.29)1.63财务0.370.221.02(0.36)(0.77)0.24(0.60)0.02(0.78)销售25.98%25.37%17.47%22.53%7.37%23.52%20.54%6.44%18.94%管理0.140.380.631.560.723.373.760.16(0.96)研发0.23(1.63)(1.43)1.230.29(2.70)3.71(0.65)(0.73)管理4.12%4.66%2.96%5.70%4.34%5.00%6.24%3.82%3.55%管理4.11%4.86%3.90%6.09%3.64%6.02%10.01%4.43%3.32%销售0.50(1.69)3.200.32(0.71)1.432.971.392.06老板电器华帝股份万和电气老板电器华帝股份万和电气火星人浙江美大亿田智能帅丰电器公牛集团欧普照明26.97%24.01%13.25%22.72%8.04%21.74%16.33%6.78%17.92%(0.84)0.490.900.22(0.20)(0.63)(0.20)0.03合计合计16.52%4.00%4.06%-1.07%23.51%1.130.22(0.08)0.101.3617.23%4.34%3.94%-1.04%24.46%0.570.26(0.53)0.190.483025205013Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q313Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q3200%150%100%50%0%-50%-100%归母净利率归母净利率18%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%图表44：23Q3后周期板块上市公司毛利率、归母净利毛利率毛利率归母净利润（亿元）归母净利润率2023Q1-Q3同比2023Q3同比2023Q1-Q32022Q1-Q3同比2023Q32022Q3同比2023Q1-Q3同比2023Q3同比13.735.593.631.396.5912.345.453.731.525.0611.31%2.68%-2.48%-8.33%30.16%5.431.461.450.252.625.101.211.420.482.166.53%20.06%2.04%-47.17%21.20%66.6458.3114.29%23.4620.6113.84%162022Q1-Q311.77-0.056.970.543.180.991.3619.81-0.4344.152023Q1-Q313.952022Q1-Q311.77-0.056.970.543.180.991.3619.81-0.4344.152023Q1-Q313.957.4112.133.814.651.811.5440.2010.4295.92老板电器华帝股份万和电气火星人浙江美大亿田智能帅丰电器公牛集团欧普照明合计2022Q38.54-0.932.750.811.660.790.678.361.7024.362023Q34.353.572.461.261.771.060.7310.413.4829.09-10.58%54.42%6.43%34.15%9.90%24.53%104.36%19.39%74.07%599.99%46.28%81.98%12.69%102.93%同比-49.10%同比18.46%117.25%---环比-2.22%1.22%6.37%2.05%-24.74%-12.88%12.53%3.83%5.38%1.27%环比同比-8.21%-19.15%-33.01%-7.77%-45.55%-0.85%-18.93%-18.37%-10.92%-17.17%同比-3.77%15.12%-41.98%16.64%-22.01%-77.94%-49.50%19.03%74.30%-2.79%2023-09-308.283.251.810.950.730.250.175.771.7923.002023-09-3014.997.226.542.420.790.971.1210.996.4251.452022-09-308.612.823.120.810.941.150.344.851.0223.662022-09-3016.338.939.762.621.450.981.3813.477.2162.12图表45：23Q3后周期板块主要公司现金流经营活动现金流净额（亿元）经营活动现金流净额（亿元）其末合同负债（亿元）期末存货（亿元）-12.05%36.74%16.07%-4.86%-39.15%22.87%-12.38%-13.20%9.12%-5.11%不过品类间、公司间分化均较为明显。23Q3利率分别同比+3.54、+2.75及+0.6在此背景下,归母净利率Q1-Q3/Q31717Q117Q217Q317Q418Q118Q217Q117Q217Q317Q418Q118Q218Q318Q419Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q340020Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q3智慧家居营业收入（亿元）同比20Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q3100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%智慧家居毛利率50%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%2023Q1-Q32022Q1-Q3同比2023Q32022Q3同比科沃斯105.32101.254.02%33.8733.022.58%石头科技56.8943.9229.51%23.1514.6957.56%极米科技24.2228.82-15.98%7.958.46-6.08%光峰科技16.5118.76-12.00%5.776.06-4.80%瑞尔特15.4613.8611.55%5.734.8517.98%萤石网络35.0831.3711.83%12.2310.4617.00%合计253.47237.986.51%88.7177.5514.38%销售费用率管理费用率研发费用率财务费用率期间费用率40%35%30%25%20%15%10% 5%0%-5%17Q117Q217Q117Q217Q317Q418Q118Q218Q318Q419Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q318科沃斯石头科技极米科技光峰科技瑞尔特萤石网络(1.25)9.96(6.29)5.233.087.02(1.75)5.82(4.19)6.722.807.37(6.85)10.59(7.94)1.81(3.65)5.27(5.35)4.45(7.88)2.920.254.4645.92%59.11%29科沃斯石头科技极米科技光峰科技瑞尔特萤石网络(1.25)9.96(6.29)5.233.087.02(1.75)5.82(4.19)6.722.807.37(6.85)10.59(7.94)1.81(3.65)5.27(5.35)4.45(7.88)2.920.254.4645.92%59.11%29.46%38.91%29.54%44.30%5.73%23.91%3.56%7.79%11.37%11.44%47.99%54.34%32.81%38.12%28.51%43.43%0.58%26.82%-0.83%9.29%10.92%11.68%13.608.5559.10%6.212.38160.38%1.290.9140.72%0.540.4518.19%4.012.1983.27%1.430.67113.05%合计(0.77)3.542.1845.50%10.87%10.07%0.6946.15%图表50：23Q3智慧家居板块销售/管理/财务费用率分别+1.21/-0.65/+2023Q1-Q32023Q3费用率同比变动费用率同比变动销售管理研发财务期间销售管理研发财务期间销售管理研发财务期间销售管理研发财务期间科沃斯32.43%3.95%5.74%-0.15%41.97%4.27(0.82)0.401.094.9433.03%4.12%6.33%1.19%44.67%2.94(0.72)0.613.356.18石头科技19.68%3.01%7.88%-1.95%28.62%1.740.720.030.172.6619.33%2.64%6.98%-1.13%27.81%(0.22)0.01(1.09)1.450.16极米科技18.23%5.05%12.37%-1.14%34.50%3.961.322.48(1.73)6.0216.67%5.16%11.88%-0.62%33.09%1.640.791.18(1.36)2.25光峰科技13.27%7.24%11.80%-1.08%31.23%2.59(1.48)2.52(0.28)3.3513.09%5.67%11.85%-0.14%30.48%(0.09)(3.81)2.081.80(0.02)瑞尔特8.00%5.67%3.56%-1.50%15.73%0.87(0.41)(0.37)2.162.2510.09%4.74%3.34%-0.43%17.73%2.210.28(0.54)4.836.77合计22.97%4.09%8.47%-0.94%34.59%3.07(0.32)0.740.253.7422.73%3.89%8.29%0.09%35.01%1.21(0.65)0.142.052.758642017Q117Q217Q317Q418Q118Q218Q317Q117Q217Q317Q418Q118Q218Q318Q419Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q3300%250%200%150%100%50%0%-50%-100%归母净利率25%20%15%10%5%0%17Q117Q217Q117Q217Q317Q418Q118Q218Q318Q419Q119Q219Q319Q420Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q3毛利率毛利率归母净利润（亿元）归母净利润率2023Q1-Q3同比2023Q3同比2023Q1-Q32022Q1-Q3同比2023Q32022Q3同比2023Q1-Q3同比2023Q3同比6.040.861.7611.223.301.54-46.21%-73.86%14.07%0.20-0.070.632.450.600.71-92.00%-110.90%-11.60%27.718.937.2727.5622.82%-027.718.937.2727.5622.82%经营活动现金流净额（亿元）其末合同负债（亿元）经营活动现金流净额（亿元）其末合同负债（亿元）期末存货（亿元）2022Q1-Q3同比2023Q32022Q3同比2023-09-302022-09-30同比环比2023-09-302022-09-30同比环比科沃斯3.863.4910.69%-0.98-1.71-3.522.6731.63%-10.60%36.1731.8613.54%12.20%石头科技17.313.87347.19%7.122.25216.46%1.061.050.78%85.64%9.2110.49-12.23%21.24%极米科技0.28-2.82--0.28-1.72-0.250.40-38.39%-9.59%13.4613.281.30%5.20%光峰科技2.090.11-0.940.904.92%0.490.4411.89%24.70%7.558.41-10.25%-0.35%瑞尔特2.973.02-1.85%1.021.45-29.40%1.190.42181.12%5.27%2.993.02-1.01%0.79%萤石网络5.402.7199.03%2.611.10137.88%3.162.6419.49%12.84%5.647.09-20.55%4.05%合计31.9110.39207.17%10.432.26361.14%9.677.6426.61%6.18%75.0174.161.15%9.37%19期间费用率大幅提升主要由于汇兑收益较同期减少，财务费用率同比+3.20请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明20Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q313Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q320Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q313Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q30营业收入（亿元）同比60%40%20%0%-20%-40%20Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q380%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%破壁机榨汁机电磁炉电水壶电饭煲电压力锅豆浆机 养生壶空气炸锅厨小整体20Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q123Q223Q3毛利率35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%13Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q320%0%-10%-20%破壁机榨汁机电磁炉破壁机-30%电水壶电饭煲电压力锅电水壶豆浆机 养生壶空气炸锅豆浆机厨小整体-40%厨小整体销售费用率管理费用率研发费用率财务费用率期间费用率30%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%21请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明13Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q120Q321Q121Q313Q314Q114Q315Q115Q316Q116Q317Q117Q318Q118Q319Q119Q320Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q32023Q1-Q32023Q3费用率同比变动费用率同比变动销售管理研发财务期间销售管理研发财务期间销售管理研发财务期间销售管理研发财务期间苏泊尔10.83%1.89%1.84%-0.37%14.20%(0.05)0.02(0.07)0.180.0810.51%1.90%2.03%-0.27%14.16%(1.32)(0.10)0.050.62(0.75)飞科电器28.52%2.83%1.94%-0.12%33.17%5.62(0.28)0.060.025.4230.83%2.99%1.97%-0.09%35.70%8.560.190.190.028.96九阳股份13.16%3.63%3.74%-0.78%19.75%(1.56)0.150.210.08(1.12)11.05%3.26%3.31%-0.45%17.17%(2.61)(0.79)0.010.86(2.53)新宝股份3.63%5.43%3.84%-1.01%11.89%0.650.200.661.723.233.19%5.02%3.60%-0.04%11.77%(0.09)(0.32)0.254.494.33小熊电器19.96%4.63%3.19%0.16%27.94%2.960.84(0.32)0.393.8723.03%5.65%3.80%0.62%33.10%5.511.010.130.577.22北鼎股份25.74%10.21%6.16%-1.32%40.79%(5.66)(0.75)1.25(0.09)(5.25)22.35%9.58%6.10%-0.16%37.87%(11.25)(1.75)1.471.97(9.55)比依股份0.97%2.95%3.73%-2.07%5.58%(0.22)0.15(0.18)2.061.800.83%2.60%3.63%-0.31%6.76%(0.51)0.13(1.39)6.374.60爱仕达19.51%8.22%5.89%2.34%35.96%4.100.881.072.468.5018.24%7.51%5.65%2.54%33.94%2.95(0.86)(0.55)4.335.87利仁科技17.99%6.23%2.61%-2.58%24.24%3.002.531.12(2.00)4.6521.10%9.28%3.51%-3.91%29.98%2.794.401.39(3.10)5.48德尔玛18.90%4.51%4.53%-0.94%27.01%2.680.240.40(0.99)2.3323.07%4.62%4.37%-1.20%30.86%6.180.390.81(1.16)6.22倍轻松54.78%4.06%4.31%-0.17%62.98%3.86(1.49)(2.48)(0.48)(0.59)53.62%4.19%4.11%-0.42%61.50%(0.29)(2.44)(3.09)(0.49)(6.31)荣泰健康11.67%4.34%4.58%-0.97%19.63%2.30(0.46)0.100.672.6011.17%4.84%5.43%0.65%22.10%0.78(1.52)0.153.963.37奥佳华20.54%7.70%4.22%-0.22%32.24%3.581.460.021.876.9216.87%6.93%3.89%1.67%29.36%1.021.28(0.16)6.438.57嘉益股份1.86%3.83%3.57%-1.56%7.69%0.16(0.65)0.271.411.201.48%2.54%2.71%0.05%6.77%(0.17)(1.48)(0.34)2.230.25莱克电气6.51%2.87%6.38%-5.09%10.66%2.320.021.270.514.135.43%2.88%5.84%-2.24%11.89%0.86(0.42)0.437.848.71格力博16.79%10.94%6.12%-0.63%33.23%5.782.392.172.7613.0920.82%14.09%7.39%3.09%45.38%2.992.201.569.7616.51富佳股份0.49%3.28%3.47%-1.59%5.64%0.030.270.161.742.190.52%2.62%3.40%-0.43%6.10%0.090.220.374.705.38德昌股份0.35%4.25%3.31%-3.84%4.08%(0.02)(0.80)(0.67)6.905.400.48%4.17%3.13%-1.42%6.36%0.03(2.52)(1.33)21.7517.93欧圣电气11.13%6.19%5.06%-5.85%16.53%3.592.601.21(1.01)6.389.67%4.94%3.57%0.04%18.23%2.000.00(1.88)9.209.32合计12.19%4.32%3.68%-1.12%19.07%1.490.210.300.982.9711.35%4.18%3.58%-0.12%18.98%0.15(0.23)0.013.563.495020Q120Q321Q121Q322Q122Q323Q123Q340%归母净利率12%10%8%6%4%2%0%22