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China'sRareEarthElementsIndustry:WhatCantheWestLearn?ByCindyHurstCorporateAuthor:

INSTITUTEFORTHEANALYSISOFGLOBALSECURITYWASHINGTONDCPersonalAuthor(s):

Hurst,CindyReportDate:

MAR2010PaginationorMediaCount:

43InstitutefortheAnalysisofGlobalSecurity(IAGS)U.S.ArmyForeignMilitaryStudiesOffice,731McClellanAvenue,FortLeavenworth,KS,66027CindyHurstisananalystfortheU.S.Army’sForeignMilitaryStudiesOffice,FortLeavenworth,KSIntroductionChinacontrolsapproximately97percentoftheworld'srareearthelementmarket.Theseelements,whicharenotwidelyknownbecausetheyaresolowontheproductionchain,arecriticaltohundredsofhightechapplications,manyofwhichdefineourmodernwayoflife.Withoutrareearthelements,muchoftheworld'smoderntechnologywouldbevastlydifferentandmanyapplicationswouldnotbepossible.Foronething,wewouldnothavetheadvantageofsmallersizedtechnology,suchasthecellphoneandlaptopcomputer,withouttheuseofrareearthelements.Rareearthelementsarealsoessentialforthedefenseindustryandarefoundincruisemissiles,precisionguidedmunitions,radarsystemsandreactivearmor.Theyarealsokeytotheemergenceofgreentechnologysuchasthenewgenerationofwindpoweredturbinesandplug-inhybridvehicles,aswellastooilrefineries,wheretheyactasacatalyst.(Note:formorein-depthinformationonthespecificusesofrareearthelements,refertoAppendixA).Overthepastfewyears,Chinahascomeunderincreasingscrutinyandcriticismoveritsmonopolyoftherareearthindustryandforgraduallyreducingexportquotasoftheseresources.However,Chinaisfacedwithitsowninternalissuesthat,ifnotaddressed,couldsoonstressthecountry'srareearthindustry.ThispaperisdesignedtogivethereaderabetterunderstandingofwhatrareearthelementsareandtheirimportancetosocietyingeneralandtoU.S.defenseandenergypolicyinparticular.ItwillalsoexplorethehistoryofrareearthelementsandChina'scurrentmonopolyoftheindustry,includingpossiblerepercussionsandstrategicimplicationsifrareearthelementssupplyweretobedisrupted.TheIssuesChinaFacesAccordingtoZhaoShuanglian,ViceChairmanofInnerMongolia’sAutonomousRegions,“Rareearthisauniquetreasure,anditisalsoInnerMongolia’sprimarystrategicresource.”WhileChinapossessesapproximately57percentoftheworld’sreservesofrareearthelements,theindustrywithinChinaisplaguedwithdisorderlydevelopmentandpoormanagementpractices.TheChinesegovernmentfearsthatifthecurrentpoorminingpracticesandlackofregulationcontinue,Chinawill“becomearare-earthpoorcountry,orevenacountrywithoutrareearthelements.”OtherissuesfacingChina’srareearthindustryaresmugglingandillegalminingactivities,environmentaldamageduetopoorminingpractice,andthegrowingchallengeofensuringitsowndomesticneedsofrareearth.SmugglingAccordingtoChinaBusinessNews,duetotheannualincreaseddemandforrareearthelements,manybuyersareresortingtosmugglingrareearthsoutofChina.In2008,approximately20,000tonsofrareearthwerereportedlysmuggledfromthecountry.Meanwhile,duringthatsameyear,accordingtoofficialcustomsstatistics,Chinaexported39,500tonsofrareearthoxide.Thismeansthatsmugglingaccountedforone-thirdofthetotalvolumeofrareearthsleavingChina.OneaimofChina’s“Rare-EarthIndustryDevelopmentPlanof2009-2015”istotrytocurbsomeofthesmugglingbyintroducingregulationsandpoliciestopunishthesmugglers.SmugglingispotentiallydetrimentaltoChina’srareearthindustrybecauseitkeepspriceslowanddepletesresourcesquicker.Smugglingalsoindicatesaseverelackofcontrolovertheindustryandcanleadtoevengreaterrepercussionssuchasmoredamagetotheenvironment.Regulationsonsafeminingpracticearenearlyimpossibletoenforceinthistypeofenvironment.Asitis,becauseofpoormanagementpracticesandthelargescaleoftheindustry,Chinaalreadyhasdifficultyinenforcingregulationstoimprovesafetyandenvironmentalmeasuresinitsrareearthindustry.SevereenvironmentaldamageAmajorconcernsurroundingChina’spracticeofminingrareearthelementsisthenegativeimpactithastotheenvironmentduetolaxminingpractices.Thereareanumberofpotentialenvironmentalimplicationstominingrareearthelementsifnotdoneproperly.Unfortunately,becauseoftherevenuepotential,manyrareearthmineshavebeenoperatingillegally,withnoregulation,causingsevereenvironmentalhazards,whichexacerbatestheproblem.In2005,XuGuangxianwrotethatthoriumwasasourceofradioactivecontaminationintheBaotouareaandtheYellowRiver.Accordingtoalocalsource,whoaskednottobeidentified,“IntheYellowRiver,inBaotou,thefishalldied.Theydumpthewaste–thechemicalsintotheriver.Youcannoteatthefishbecausetheyarepolluted.”Some150millionpeopledependontheriverastheirprimarysourceofwater.Undertraditionaltechnologymeans,refiningrareearthelementsrequiressuchchemicalsasammoniumbicarbonateandoxalicacid.Thepotentialhealthhazardsofammoniumbicarbonateinclude:Irritationtotherespiratorytractifinhaled,irritationtothegastrointestinaltractifingested,rednessandpainifitcomesincontactwiththeeyes,andredness,itching,andpainifitcomesincontactwiththeskin.Oxalicacidispoisonousandpotentiallyfatalifswallowed.Itisalsocorrosiveandcausessevereirritationandburnstotheskin,eyes,andrespiratorytract,isharmfulifinhaledorabsorbedthroughtheskin,andcancausekidneydamage.TheseandotherchemicalsoftenfindtheirwayintotheYellowRiver.SafetystandardsinChinaarelax.“Peopleintheir30shavediedofcancerworkingaroundthemines,possiblyfromradioactivematerials,”saidonelocalsource.“Ivisitedafactorymanytimes.WhenIvisitafactoryorworkshop,Itellthedirectoroftheworkshop,‘wouldyoutellthelaborerstoputtheirmaskonwhentheyaredoingtheirjob?’Hesaid,‘Ohyeah.Wedoeverytime,butit’stoohot.Theydon’twanttokeeptheirmaskon.’Youcanseethattheairisdirtyandtheyarebreathingitallin.”ThemostcommondiseaseinBaotouispneumoconiosis,betterknownasblacklung.Thereare5,387residentsinBaotouwhosufferfromblacklung,whichmakesupmorethan50percentofthecasesintheautonomousregion.WhileChinamighthavegeneralpollutioncontrolstandards,thecountryhasneveractuallyworkedoutpollutantdischargestandardsfortherareearthindustry.AstherareearthindustryinChinahasrapidlygrown,therehasbeennoeffectivewaytocontroltheusualpollutantssuchasammonia,nitrogen,andthoriumdust,whichareemittedduringtheproductionphase.Furthermore,generalhealthandsafetyregulationsareoftenignoredforanumberofreasons,including:•Theindustryislargeandchallengingtomonitor.•Peopleandcompaniesarenotbeingheldaccountable.Forexample,inWesternsociety,ifanemployeediesorbecomesill,repercussionscouldincludealawsuitorlife-longpensionwhichthecompanyisobligatedtofulfill.ThisisnotthecaseinChina.DomesticconsumptionisapriorityWith1.3billionpeopleandthefastestgrowingeconomyintheworld,Chinaisfacedwiththechallengingtaskofensuringithasadequatenaturalresourcestosustaineconomicgrowth,whilealsotryingtoappeasetheinternationalcommunity,whichhasbeenprotestingChina’scutsinrareearthexportquotas.AccordingtoWangCaifeng,in2008Chinaused70,000tonsofrareearthelements.Globalconsumptionwas130,000tons.Chinaexported10,000tonsofrareearthmagnetsworth$400millionand34,600tonsofotherrareearthproductsworth$500million.TherearenumerousexamplesthatpointtoChina’santicipatedincreaseinrareearthconsumption.Forexample,attheendofJuly2008,Chinahad600millioncellphoneusers.Lessthanoneyearlater,bytheendofMarch2009,Chinahad670millioncellphoneusers.Newtechnologies,suchasthethirdgeneration(3G)networks,haveboostedthesaleofcellphones,atrendwhichwilllikelycontinueasmoreandmoreChinesecitizensbuycellphonesandothersupgradetothenewtechnologies.Puttingitintoperspective,inChina,approximately50percentofthepopulationhascellphones.CTIA,theInternationalAssociationforWirelessTelecommunications,reportedinOctober2008thattheU.S.(withapopulationof304millionpeopleasofJuly2008)hadmorethan262millionwirelesssubscribers.Thismeansthat86percentoftheentireU.S.populationhadcellphones.IfChinaweretofollowthesametechnologicalgrowthpatternsastheU.S.,thecountrycouldonedayhaveapproximately1.1billioncellphonesormore.Inanotherexample,theuseofsolarandwindpoweraresettoincreaseexponentiallyinChina.Greenenergytechnologyisexpectedtobecomethelargestconsumerofrareearthelementsinthefuture.AccordingtoMarkSmith,ChiefExecutiveOfficerofMolycorpMinerals,thecompanythatownsandoperatestheMountainPassrareearthmineinCalifornia,“We’vecoinedtheterm,‘thegreenelements.’becausetherearesomanyapplicationsrightnowhybridelectricvehicles,windpoweredgeneration…permanentmagnetgenerators,compactfluorescentlightbulbs…Justtonameafew.Rareearthsareabsolutelyindispensable.They(greentechnologies)willnotworkwithoutrareearths.”China’sconsumptionofrareearthelementsisalsoexpectedtoincreasedramaticallyasmoreandmoreforeigncompaniesmovetheirproductionsitestoChinatotakeadvantageofthelowercostofrareearthsandthereforereducetheiroverallproductioncosts.ThisispartofChina’slargerstrategytomaintainatightholdontheindustry.ChinaFightsBackbeforeit’stooLate:ImplicationsfortheWestIn2005,XuGuangxiancalledforprotectivemeasuresintherareearthindustry,warningthatrareearthandthoriumresourcesatBayanObowerein“urgentneedofprotectionandrationalutilization.”XupointedoutthatsinceBayanObohadstartedoffexclusivelyasanironoremine,itdidnotproperlyconsiderwaystorecoverrareearthsandthorium.Since1958,whenBaotouIronandSteelWorksbegantheirminingoperations,250milliontonsoforehadbeenminedatthemainandeasternorebodies,leavingaremainingorevolumeof350milliontons.AttheratethatChinawasmining–10milliontonsoforeperyear–Xuestimatedthatthemainandeasternorebodieswouldbecompletelydepletedwithin35years.Withsomuchemphasisplacedontheimportanceofrareearthelementsinmoderndaytechnology,maintainingstrictcontroloverthisresourcewillhelptopropelChinaintoapositionofgreaterpolitical,economic,andmilitarypower.Priorto2009,accordingtoDaiXu,anexpertonmilitaryissues,“Chinahadbeensellingthesepreciousrare-earthmetalsatadirt-cheappricefor20years.”Thishasbothbeenstrippingthecountryofoneofitsmostimportantstrategicresourcesanddamagingtheenvironment.Inanefforttotrytoprotectitsresources,theChinesegovernmenthasbeenclampingdownonitsdomesticindustryinseveralways,including:restrictingexportquotasonrareearthelements;closingdownsmallerandillegalrareearthoperationsandconsolidatinglargeronesinanefforttogainmorecontrol;tryingtoputintoplaceincreasedenvironmentallawsregulatingrareearthmining;andstockpiling.Muchofthedevelopedworldregardsthesemeasuresasthreatening.RestrictingexportquotasOfmostconcerntotheinternationalcommunity,Chinahasbeenrestrictingexportquotasinordertohaveenoughresourcesforitsownindustriesandtoregaincontroloveritsdomesticoperations.Chinacurrentlyrestrictsexportquotasondysprosium,terbium,thulium,lutetium,yttrium,andtheheavyandscarcerrareearths.Thisreductionofexportquotashaspusheduptheinternationalpriceofkeyrareearths,includingneodymiumwhichissocriticalfortheneodymium-iron-boronpermanentmagnets.TheMinistryofLandandResourcesimplementedaregulationstatingthatthe2009exportquotaforrareearthoreswouldbesetat82,320tons,72,300ofwhicharelightrareearthelements,theremaining10,020tonsbeingheavyrareearthelements.Thesenumberswerebasedon“controlsofthetotalamountofextractionfor”rareearthorefor2008andforecastsformarketfactorsin2009.Morecutsareexpectedinthefuture.Ofcourse,thisbringsaboutanewfear.China’scontroloverrareearthelementshasthepotentialtoincreaseforeigndependenceonChinaforfinishedgoods.Chinahasadoptedvariouspoliciestofurtherdeveloptherareearthindustryatitsroots.China’svisionistoincreaseindustrialutilizationofrareearthelementsinordertodrawinmorerareearthenterprises,bothwithinandoutsideofChina,tosetupoperationsinInnerMongoliaintheareaofrareearthapplications.ZhaoShuanglianpointedoutthatInnerMongoliawantedtocontrolitsrareearthresourcessothatitcouldbecomeamajorindustrialbase.ZhaoalsoexpressedaninterestinattractingmoredomesticandinternationalinterestinInnerMongoliatodeveloptherareearthindustry.ThisisanidealscenarioforChinabecauseitwillgivethecountrycompletecontrolovertheindustryandprovidemorejobopportunitiesforChinesecitizensinthemanufacturingindustry.However,forthosecountriesforcedtomovetheirproductionbasestoChinaduetotheirdependenceonrareearthelements,jobsarelostand,perhapsmorecriticaltonationalsecurity,proprietaryandevencriticaltechnologieswilllikelybecompromised.ClosingsmalleroperationsandconsolidatinglargeronestogainmorecontrolChinaisstrivingtocutbackandconsolidatetheindustrytogainmorecontroloverit.Itisachievingthisbyclosingdownsmaller,illegaloperationsandconsolidatingandmerginglargerproducers.ThesestepswillultimatelyputcompletecontroloverChineserareearthelementsintothegovernment’shands,whichwillcompletelyrestrictanytypeofprivateenterpriseexchange.China’srareearthresourcesarewidelydistributedacross22provincesandregionsthroughoutthecountry.Becauseofthescattereddistributionofrareearthresources,itisdifficulttocarryoutefficientoversightoftheindustry.Accordingtoonesource,areviseddraftofthe2009-2015PlansforDevelopingtheRareEarthIndustrywillsimplifymanagementofChina’srareearthresourcesby“designatinglargedistricts.”ThenewplanwilldivideChina’sindustryintothreelargedistricts–south,north,andwest.ThesoutherndistrictisJiangxi,Guangdong,Fujian,Hunan,andGuangxi;thenortherndistrictisInnerMongoliaandShandong;andthewesterndistrictisSichuan.From2009to2015,lightrareearthswillbetheitemoffocusinInnerMongoliaandSichuan,withsomedevelopmentinShandongasneeded.MediumandheavyrareearthminingwillbethefocusinJiangxi,Guangdong,andFujian.TheMinistryofIndustryandInformationTechnologywilloverseetheindustrybycreatinganexpertexaminationsystemforrareearthextraction.Thesystemwillincludeimpromptuonsitevisitsandinspectionstoensurenationaldirectiveplansarebeingimplementedandexecuted.On10December2008,BaotouSteelRareEarthsetuptheInnerMongoliaBaotouSteelRareEarthHigh-TechCo.,astate-ownedsole-proprietorcompanyintherareearthshigh-techzoneofInnerMongolia;andInnerMongoliaBaotouSteelRareEarthHigh-TechCo.wasaneight-party,700-millionYuan($102.5million)jointventurethatincludedBaotouHuameiRareEarthHigh-techCo.,ZiboBaosteelLingzhiRareEarthHi-TechCo.,InnerMongoliaBaosteelandRare-EarthDevelopmentCo.Thenewventureissupposedtobethecontrollingvoiceoftherareearthindustrybyusinganewbusinessmodelwithaunifiedorganizationandproductionarrangement,unifiedpurchasing,andunifiedsales.Priortothis,thestatehadpromotedtheideaofestablishingtwomajorrareearthgroups,oneinthenorthandoneinthesouth.However,itwasdifficulttobalancetheinterestsbetweenthetwoenterprisesandtheplannevercametofruition.Thebiggestadvantagetohavingoneenterpriseinchargeoftheindustryiseasiercentralcontrolofpricing.Havingacentralizedenterpriseshouldalsofacilitateturningtheregionintoarareearth“productionofgoods”zone.NewregulationstoprotecttheenvironmentChinadoesnothavepollutantdischargestandardsfortherareearthindustry.Environmentalissuesbehindtheminingofrareearthelementsareahugeconcern.ThedifferencesbetweenWesternminingeffortsandthoseseeninChinatodayarestaggering.Awareoftheproblem,thelocalgovernmentisreportingtobetryingtofindwaystoimprovethesituation.InJuly2009,theMinistryofEnvironmentalProtectionorganizedthe“RareEarthIndustryPollutantDischargeStandards.”Thesenewstandardswillhopefully“eliminatebackwardproductionabilitiesandpromotetheupgradingandupdatingofChina’srareearthindustry.”TheMinistryofEnvironmentalProtectionsetdischargestandardsforsixtypesofatmosphericpollutants–sulfurdioxide,particles,fluoride,chlorine,hydrogenchloride,andsulfurtrioxide.Forwaterpollutants,dischargestandardsweresetfor14typesofpollutants,includingfluoride,totalphosphorous,totalcarbon,totalnitrogen,andammonianitrogen.Inmanysouthernregionswithlakes,thenewstandardsimplementspecialdischargelimitsforammonianitrogendischargeconcentrations.Thesenewstandardsaresplitintotwoparts,onepartforexistingenterprisesandtheotherpartfornewlybuiltenterprises.Underthenewstandards,rareearthenterprisesarerequiredtoincreasetheirinvestmentinenvironmentalprotectionandimproveproductiontechnologiesandcosts.StockpilingXuGuangxian,China’s“FatherofRareEarths,”hasbeenpushingtohaveChinabuildupitsstrategicreservesofrareearths.AccordingtoXu,“We(China)mustsetupastockpilingsystemforrareearthsandthorium(thoriumforenergy)andsupportleadingdomesticproducerslikeBaogang,Minmetals,andJiangxiCoppertoimplementthestockpiling.”AccordingtoXu,JapanandSouthKoreahavebuiltupstockpiles,whichareenoughfor20yearsofconsumption,bytakingadvantageoflowmarketpricesbefore2008whenChinabegantorestrictproduction,butChinahasn’tsetupastockpilingsystemyet.AccordingtoAnSihu,assistantdirectoroftheRareEarthHigh-TechZoneManagementCommittee,Chinahasmajorplanstobuildanationalrareearthresourcesstrategicreservesbase.ThetentativeplanistostoreuptherawmaterialsthatwerenotusedupfromtheannualexcavationatBaosteelandusethattostabilizeprices.EffortscurrentlyareunderwayinNorthernChinatorealizethisgoal.AnewrareearthindustryparkbeganconstructioninJuly2008andistobelocatedinNorthernChina.However,inordertobecompletelyeffective,allofChina’srareearthregionsneedtoconsolidatetheireffortstowardtheconstructionanduseofthisplannedrareearthstrategicreservesite.Xucontinuallywarnsaboutdepletingrareearthreservesfromoverproduction.StockpilingrareearthelementswillallowChinatobetterregulatethepricingofrareearthsaswellashelpensureitsownfuturesupplies.From/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA525378中国的稀土产业:西方能学到什么?辛蒂·赫斯特集团作者:华盛顿全球安全分析研究所个人作者:辛蒂·赫斯特发表日期:2010年3月全球安全分析研究所(IAGS)堪萨斯州利温沃斯堡麦克莱伦大街731号美国陆军外国军事研究室,66027辛蒂·赫斯特:堪萨斯州利温沃斯堡美国陆军外国军事研究办公室分析师。引言中国控制着全球约97%的稀土市场。这些元素并不广为人知,因为他们在生产链中是如此之低,但却是成百上千的高科技应用的关键,其中的许多决定了我们的现代生活方式。没有稀土元素,世界上大部分的现代科技将大大不同,许多应用型产品也将无法使用。一方面,不使用稀土元素,我们就没有微型技术的优势,如手机和笔记本电脑。稀土元素对国防工业也是必不可少的,应用于巡航导弹,精确制导武器,雷达系统和反应装甲。他们也是绿色技术得以发展的关键,如新一代的风力发电机和插电式混合动力汽车以及炼油厂,均需要稀土元素作催化剂。在过去的几年中,中国对其垄断的稀土行业的审查和批评日益严格,并逐渐减少稀土的出口配额。然而,中国面临着自身的内部问题,如果不解决,可能很快就会对其稀土行业产生不利影响。本文的目的是让读者更好地了解稀土元素和它们在社会上的一般重要性,以及对美国国防和能源政策的特殊性。本文还将探讨稀土元素与中国目前的行业垄断的历史,包括在稀土元素供应被中断后可能产生的影响和战略意义。中国面临的问题根据内蒙古自治区副主席赵双连所说,“稀土是一种独特的珍宝,也是内蒙古的主要战略资源”。尽管中国拥有约占世界57%的稀土储量,但中国的稀土行业存在的无序发展和管理不善的问题。中国政府担心,如果目前这种简陋的开采方式和监管的缺乏继续下去,中国将成为“稀土贫乏的国家,甚至是一个没有稀土资源的国家”。中国稀土行业面临的其他问题还有稀土走私和非法采矿活动,恶劣开采方式所造成的环境破坏以及确保不断增长的国内稀土需求的挑战。走私据第一财经日报,由于每年对稀土资源的不断增长的需求,很多买家都从中国走私稀土。据报道,2008年该国约20000吨稀土被走私。同时根据海关统计数据,同一年中国出口了39500吨稀土氧化物。这意味着走私占中国出境稀土总量的三分之一。“中国稀土产业2009-2015发展计划”的一个目的是试图通过引入惩罚走私者的法规和政策来遏制走私行为。走私对中国稀土产业具有潜在的不利影响,它价格低,消耗资源也更快。走私也表明严重缺乏对行业的控制,这可能会造成更大的不利影响,如对环境产生更多的破坏。安全开采方式的法规几乎不可能在这种环境中执行。实际上,由于糟糕的管理实践和巨大的行业规模,中国在执行提高安全的法规和贯彻稀土行业的环境保护措施方面具有难度。严重的环境破坏中国稀土开采的关注重点是由松懈的开采方式对环境所造成的负面影响。如果做得不恰当,会有许多潜在的环境因素影响稀土开采。不幸的是,由于可观的收入,许多稀土矿山缺乏监管,非法经营,造成了严重的环境危害,这加剧了问题的严重性。2005年,徐光宪写道,钍元素是包头和黄河地区的放射性污染源。根据当地一位不愿透露姓名的人士,“在黄河、包头,鱼都死了。他们把化学品废弃物倒入河中。你不能吃鱼,因为他们都被污染了。”约1.5亿人依靠河流作为他们的主要水源。传统的技术手段下,提炼稀土元素需要碳酸氢铵和草酸这样的化学品。碳酸氢铵的潜在健康危害包括:如果吸入会刺激呼吸道,吸收后会刺激胃肠道,如果接触眼睛会使其发红和疼痛,如果与皮肤接触会使其发红、瘙痒甚至疼痛。草酸是有毒的,如果吞下则可能致命。它也具有强烈的腐蚀性,会对皮肤、眼睛和呼吸道造成严重的刺激和灼伤,如果吸入或通过皮肤吸收是十分有害的,会导致肾脏损伤。但这些和其他化学物质经常流入黄河。在中国的安全标准比较宽松。“在矿山工作的人们30多岁就死于癌症,很可能是由于放射性物质”,一位当地人士说。“我多次参观了一个工厂,当我参观一个工厂或车间,我问车间主任:‘当他们工作时你会告诉工人叫他们戴上面具吗?’他说:‘是的,我们每次都会,但它太烫了,他们不想戴着面具。’你可以看到,他们污浊的空气都吸了进去。”在包头最常见的疾病是尘肺病,一般多称为黑肺。有5387个包头居民患有黑肺,占据了自治区一半以上的病例。虽然中国可能有一般污染控制标准,但国家还没有制定出稀土工业污染物排放标准。中国的稀土产业在迅速成长,但却一直没有控制如氨、氮以及钍尘等在生产阶段产生的常见污染物的有效途径。此外,一般的健康和安全规章制度往往由于各种原因而被忽视,包括:•行业庞大,实行监测具有挑战性。•个人和企业不承担责任。例如,在西方社会,如果一个雇员死亡或生病,后果可能包括诉讼和终身年金,这是公司必须义务履行的,但在中国却不是这样的。满足国内消费是当务之急作为世界上具有13亿人口和经济增长最快的国家,中国面临着具有挑战性的任务,既要确保国内具有足够的自然资源来维持经济增长,同时也试图满足已在抗议中国削减稀土出口配额的国际社会。根据王采风,2008年中国消耗了7万吨稀土资源,全球消费量为13万吨。中国出口1万吨稀土永磁体价值4亿美元,34600吨的其他稀土产品价值5亿美元。有无数的例子指出中国的稀土消费量预计增加。例如,2008年7月底,中国有6亿手机用户。不到一年后,2009年3月底,中国有6.7亿手机用户。新技术如第三代(3G)网络增加了手机的销量,这一趋势很可能会继续,越来越多的中国公民会购买手机,其他人员则将不断升级达到最新技术。整体来看,中国大约一半人口拥有手机。国际无线通信协会在2008年10月报道,美国(截至2008年7月人口为3.04亿)有超过2.62亿的手机用户。这意味着整个美国86%的人口拥有手机。如果中国遵循与美国相同的技术增长模式,中国有一天可能会有大约11亿的手机用户甚至更多。另一个例子中,太阳能和风能的使用在中国将以指数方式增加。绿色能源技术有望成为未来稀土资源的最大消费者。根据莫利矿业公司的首席执行官马克·史密斯,该公司拥有和经营加利福尼亚帕斯山的稀土矿,“我们创造了这个术语‘绿色元素’,因为有这么多的产品需要应用稀土元素如混合动力汽车、风力发电机……永磁发电机、紧凑型荧光灯泡等等。稀土是必不可少的,没有稀土他们(绿色技术)将无法正常运作”。随着越来越多的外国企业将其生产基地转移到中国,利用其罕见的低成本稀土来降低整体生产成本,中国的稀土消费也将急剧增加。这是中国为紧紧把握稀土行业的大战略的一部分。中国及

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