参考每日报告

CONTENTS

TOC\o"1-1"\h\z\u

Thenewfactorofproduction 4

ThreechannelsofAI-ledgrowth 12

FactoringinAI 15

ClearingthepathtoanAIfuture 21

2 | Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth

Increasesincapitalandlaborarenolongerdrivingthelevelsofeconomicgrowththeworldhasbecomeaccustomedtoanddesires.Fortunately,anewfactorofproductionisonthehorizon,anditpromisestotransformthebasisofeconomicgrowthforcountriesacrosstheworld.

Therehasbeenmarkeddeclineintheabilityofincreasesincapitalinvestmentandinlabortopropeleconomicprogress.Thesetwoleversarethetraditionaldriversofproduction,yettheyarenolongerabletosustainthesteadymarchofprosperityenjoyedinpreviousdecadesinmostdevelopedeconomies.

Butlong-termpessimismisunwarranted.Withtherecentconvergenceofatransformativesetoftechnologies,economiesareenteringanewerainwhichartificialintelligence(AI)hasthepotentialtoovercomethephysicallimitationsofcapitalandlaborandopenupnewsourcesofvalueandgrowth.

Indeed,Accentureanalyzed12developedeconomiesandfoundthatAIhasthepotentialtodoubletheirannualeconomicgrowthratesby2035.

Toavoidmissingoutonthisopportunity,policymakersandbusinessleadersmustpreparefor,andworktoward,afuturewithartificialintelligence.TheymustdosonotwiththeideathatAIissimplyanotherproductivityenhancer.Rather,theymustseeAIasthetoolthatcantransformourthinkingabouthowgrowthiscreated.

THENEWFACTOROFPRODUCTION

Acrosstheglobe,ratesofgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)growthhavebeenshrinking.Moreover,thishasbeentrueforthreedecades.Keymeasuresofeconomicefficiencyaretrendingsharplydownward,whilelabor-forcegrowthacrossthedevelopedworldislargelystagnant.Itisevenindeclineinsomecountries(seeFigures1to4).

Giventhispooroutlook,commentatorssaythatastagnanteconomyisthe“new

normal.”Onanevenmorepessimisticnote,economistRobertGordonarguesthatproductivitygrowthoverthenextquartercenturywillcontinueatthesluggishpacewehaveexperiencedsince2004.1Hebelievesthatthepasttwocenturiesof“GreatInventions,”suchasthesteamshipandtelegraph,areunlikelytoberepeated.Andthisdeficitofinnovation,combinedwithunfavorabledemographictrends,flaggingeducationalattainmentand

risingwealthinequality,willsloweconomicprogress.

So,areweexperiencingtheendofgrowthandprosperityasweknowit?

Asgrimasmuchofthedataundoubtedlyis,itmissesanimportantpartofthestory.

Thatmissingelementishownewtechnologiesaffectgrowthintheeconomy.

Traditionally,capitalandlaborarethe“factorsofproduction”thatdrivegrowthintheeconomy(seeFigure5).Growthoccurswhenthestockofcapitalorlaborincrease,orwhentheyareusedmoreefficiently.Thegrowththatcomesfrominnovationsandtechnologicalchangeintheeconomyiscapturedintotalfactorproductivity(TFP).

EconomistshavealwaysthoughtofnewtechnologiesasdrivinggrowththroughtheirabilitytoenhanceTFP.Thismadesenseforthetechnologiesthatwehaveseenuntilnow.Thegreattechnologicalbreakthroughsoverthelastcentury—electricity,railwaysandIT—boostedproductivitydramaticallybutdidnotcreateentirelynewworkforces.

Today,wearewitnessingthetake-offofanothertransformativesetoftechnologies,commonlyreferredtoas

artificialintelligence(see“Whatisartificialintelligence?”).ManyseeAIassimilartopasttechnologicalinventions.Ifwebelievethis,thenwecanexpectsomegrowth,butnothingtransformational.

ButwhatifAIhasthepotentialtobenotjustanotherdriverofTFP,butanentirelynewfactorofproduction?Howcanthisbe?

ThekeyistoseeAIasacapital-laborhybrid.AIcanreplicatelaboractivitiesatmuchgreaterscaleandspeed,andtoevenperformsometasksbeyondthecapabilitiesofhumans.Nottomentionthatinsomeareasithastheabilitytolearnfasterthanhumans,ifnotyetasdeeply.Forexample,byusingvirtualassistants,1,000legaldocumentscanbereviewedinamatterofdaysinsteadoftakingthreepeoplesixmonthstocomplete.2

Similarly,AIcantaketheformofphysicalcapitalsuchasrobotsandintelligentmachines.Andunlikeconventionalcapital,suchasmachinesandbuildings,itcanactuallyimproveovertime,thankstoitsself-learningcapabilities.

Basedonouranalysisandmodeling,wecanillustratewhathappenswhenAIisseenasanewfactorofproductionratherthanjustaproductivityenhancer.TheimpactonprojectedgrowthfortheUnitedStates,forexample,isdramatic.AsFigure6shows,thefirstscenarioisbusiness-as-usual,assumingnoAIeffect.ThesecondindicatesthetraditionalviewofAIasaTFPenhancerwhereithasalimitedimpact

ongrowth.ThethirdscenarioshowswhathappenswhenAIcanactasanewfactorofproduction—thereisatransformativeeffectongrowth.ThisabilityofAItocomplementandenhancetraditionalfactorsofproductioniswhereitstruepotentiallies.

TheadvanceofAIisleadingustorethinkfundamentaleconomic

relationshipsandhowvalueiscreated.

DAVIDLEHRER,CEO,CONATIX

5 | Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth

Developedeconomies:Theendofgrowth?

Onavarietyofkeymeasures,economicdataseemstosupportamoodoflong-termpessimism.

FIGURE1:GROSSDOMESTICPRODUCT

Sincethe1980s,GDPgrowthhassteadilyslowedinmanylargeeconomies.

5.0 JAPAN FRANCE

UNITEDSTATES

ITALY

UNITEDKINGDOM

2.1

1.0

-1.0

RealGDPgrowth(%,annualaverageovertheperiod)

NB:Datapointsacrossthedashedlinesindicatetheaverageforthesixcountries.Source:OxfordEconomics

FIGURE2:PRODUCTIVITY

Akeymeasureofhowwellaneconomyusesitsexistingcapitalandpeopleis“totalfactorproductivity”(TFP).DatashowaweakeningofTFP,especiallyinthepast10years.

JAPAN FRANCE

3.0

2.5

UNITEDSTATESUNITEDKINGDOM

ITALYGERMANY

1.5

1.0

-1.5

Totalfactorproductivity(%,annualaverageovertheperiod)

Source:TheConferenceBoard,TotalEconomicDatabase

FIGURE3:CAPITALEFFICIENCY

Themarginalcapitalefficiencyrate,anindicatoroftheproductivityofcapitalsuchasmachinesandbuildings,hassteadilydroppedovera50-yearperiod.

JAPAN

50

UNITEDSTATES

GERMANYUNITEDKINGDOM

1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Marginalcapitalefficiency(%,6-yearmovingaverage)

Source:EuropeanCommission,AnnualMacroeconomicDatabase

FIGURE4:LABOR

Aspopulationsageandbirthratesslow,fewerpeopleareavailabletopickuptheslackintheworkforce.

20002015 20162030

-0.1

0.1

-0.05

-0.2 -0.1 -0.69

-0.3 -0.3

-0.6

-0.7 -0.73

UNITEDSTATES

SPAIN UNITEDKINGDOM

BELGIUM SWEDEN AUSTRIA FRANCE NETHERLANDS ITALY FINLAND GERMANY JAPAN

Workingagepopulation(%,annualaveragegrowthovertheperiod)

Source:OxfordEconomics

FIGURE5:THEAIGROWTHMODEL

OurmodeladaptsthetraditionalgrowthmodelbyincludingAIasafactorofproduction.

GROWTH

NB: indicatesthechangeinthatfactor.Source:Accentureanalysis

FIGURE6:THREEGROWTHSCENARIOSFORTHEUNITEDSTATES’ECONOMY

AIasanewfactorofproductioncanleadtosignificantgrowthopportunitiesfortheUnitedStates’economy.

23,835

897 897

UNITEDSTATES’GVA

AIINDUCEDTFPADDITIONAL

AIINDUCEDGROWTH

ProjectedgrowthwithoutAI

ProjectedgrowthwithAI’simpactlimitedtoTFP

ProjectedgrowthwithAIasnewfactorofproduction

UnitedStates’grossvalueadded(GVA)in2035(US$billion)

Source:AccentureandFrontierEconomics

WHATISARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCE?

AIisnotanewfield;muchofitstheoreticalandtechnologicalunderpinningwasdevelopedoverthepast70yearsbycomputerscientistssuchasAlanTuring,MarvinMinskyandJohnMcCarthy.Today,thetermreferstomultipletechnologiesthatcanbecombinedindifferentwaysto:

Sense

Computervisionandaudioprocessing,forexample,areabletoactivelyperceivetheworldaroundthembyacquiringandprocessingimages,soundsandspeech.Theuseoffacialrecognitionatbordercontrolkiosksisonepracticalexampleofhowitcanimproveproductivity.

Comprehend

Naturallanguageprocessingandinferenceenginescanenable

AIsystemstoanalyzeandunderstandtheinformationcollected.Thistechnologyisusedtopowerthelanguagetranslationfeatureofsearchengineresults.

Act

AnAIsystemcantakeactionthroughtechnologiessuchasexpertsystemsandinferenceengines,or

undertakeactionsinthephysicalworld.Auto-pilotfeaturesandassisted-brakingcapabilitiesincarsareexamplesofthis.

Allthreecapabilitiesareunderpinnedbytheabilitytolearnfromexperienceandadaptovertime.AIalreadyexiststosomedegreeinmanyindustriesbuttheextenttowhichitisbecomingpartofourdailylivesissettogrowfast.

10 | Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth

TwokeyfactorsareenablingAIgrowth:

Unlimitedaccesstocomputingpower.

PubliccloudcomputingwasestimatedtoreachalmostUS$70billionin2015worldwide.Datastoragehasalsobecomeabundant.

Growthinbigdata.

Globaldatahasseenacompoundannualgrowthrate(CAGR)ofmorethan50percentsince2010asmoreofthedevicesaroundushavebecomeconnected.AsBarrySmyth,professorofcomputerscienceatUniversityCollegeDublin,toldus:“DataistoAIwhatfoodistohumans.”Soinamoredigitalworld,theexponentialgrowthofdataisconstantlyfeedingAIimprovements.

EmergingAItechnologies

AITECHNOLOGIES ILLUSTRATIVESOLUTIONS

VirtualAgents

Sense

IdentityAnalytics

CognitiveRobotics

Comprehend

SpeechAnalytics

RecommendationSystems

DataVisualization

Act

Source:Accentureanalysis

11 | Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth

THREECHANNELSOFAI-LEDGROWTH

WithAIasthenewfactorofproduction,itcandrivegrowthinatleastthreeimportantways.First,itcancreateanewvirtualworkforce—whatwecall“intelligentautomation.”Second,AIcancomplementandenhancetheskillsandabilityofexistingworkforcesandphysicalcapital.Third,likeotherprevioustechnologies,AIcandriveinnovationsintheeconomy.Overtime,thisbecomesacatalystforbroadstructuraltransformationaseconomiesusingAInotonlydothingsdifferently,theywillalsododifferentthings.

Intelligentautomation

ThenewAI-poweredwaveofintelligentautomationisalreadycreatinggrowththroughasetoffeaturesunlikethoseoftraditionalautomationsolutions.

Thefirstfeatureisitsabilitytoautomatecomplexphysicalworldtasksthatrequireadaptabilityandagility.Considertheworkofretrievingitemsinawarehouse,wherecompanieshavereliedonpeople’sabilitytonavigatecrowdedspacesandavoidmovingobstacles.Now,robotsfromFetchRoboticsuselasersand3Ddepth-sensorstonavigatesafelyandworkalongsidewarehouseworkers.Usedintandemwithpeople,therobotscanhandlethevastmajorityofitemsinatypicalwarehouse.3

Whereastraditionalautomationtechnologyistaskspecific,theseconddistinctfeatureofAI-poweredintelligentautomationisitsabilitytosolveproblemsacrossindustriesandjobtitles.Forinstance,Amelia—anAIplatformbyIPsoftwithnaturallanguageprocessingcapabilities—hassupportedmaintenanceengineersinremotelocations.Havingreadallthemanuals,Ameliacandiagnoseaproblemandsuggestasolution.4Thisplatformhasalsolearnedtheanswerstothe120questionsmostfrequentlyaskedbymortgagebrokersandhasbeenusedinabanktohandlesuchfinancialqueries,traditionallyalabor-intensivetask.5

Thethirdandmostpowerfulfeatureofintelligentautomationisself-learning,enabledbyrepeatabilityatscale.Amelia,likeaconscientiousemployee,recognizesthegapsinherownknowledgeandtakesstepstoclosethem.IfAmeliaispresentedwithaquestionthatshecannotanswer,sheescalatesittoahumancolleague,thenobserveshowthepersonsolvestheproblem.Theself-learningaspectofAIisafundamentalchange.Whereastraditionalautomationcapitaldegradesovertime,intelligentautomationassets

constantlyimprove.

Laborandcapitalaugmentation

AsignificantpartoftheeconomicgrowthfromAIwillcomenotfromreplacingexistinglaborandcapital,butinenablingthemtobeusedmuchmoreeffectively.

Forexample,AIcanenablehumanstofocusonpartsoftheirrolethataddthemostvalue.Hotelstaffspendalotoftheirtimemakingroutineroomdeliveries.WhynotassignthetasktoRelay,anautonomousserviceindustryrobotdevelopedbySavioke,instead?Lastyear,theRelayfleetmademorethan11,000guestdeliveriesinthefivelargehotelchainswhereitisdeployed.AsSteveCousins,CEOofSavioke,toldus:“Relayenablesstafftoredirecttheirtimetowardincreasingcustomersatisfaction.”

Also,AIaugmentslaborbycomplementinghumancapabilities,offeringemployeesnewtoolstoenhancetheirnaturalintelligence.Forexample,Praedicat,

acompanyprovidingriskmodelingservicestopropertyandcasualtyinsurers,isimprovingunderwriters’risk-pricingabilities.Usingmachinelearningandbigdataprocessingtechnologies,itsAIplatformreadsmorethan22millionpeer-reviewedscientificpaperstoidentifyseriousemergingrisks.Asaresult,underwriterscannotonlypriceriskmoreaccurately,butalsocreatenewinsuranceproducts.6

AIcanalsoimprovecapitalefficiency—acrucialfactorinindustrieswhereit

representsalargesunkcost.Forinstance,inmanufacturing,industrialroboticscompanyFanuchasteamedupwithCiscoandotherfirmstocreateaplatformtoreducefactorydowntime—estimatedatonemajorautomotivemanufacturertocostUS$20,000perminute.7TheFanucIntelligentEdgeLinkandDrive(FIELD)systemisananalyticsplatformpoweredbyadvancedmachinelearning.Itcapturesandanalyzesdatafromdisparateparts

ofthemanufacturingprocesstoimprovemanufacturingproduction.AlreadyFIELDhasbeendeployedinan18-month“zerodowntime”trialatonemanufacturer,whereitrealizedsignificantcostsavings.8

OftenpeopleonlythinkofAIboostinggrowthbysubstitutinghumans,

butactuallyhugevalueisgoingtocomefromthenewgoods,servicesandinnovationsAIwillenable.

DAVIDAUTOR,PROFESSOROFECONOMICS,MIT

Innovationdiffusion

Oneoftheleast-discussedbenefitsofartificialintelligenceisitsabilitytopropelinnovationsasitdiffusesthroughtheeconomy.

Takedriverlessvehicles.Usingacombinationoflasers,globalpositioningsystems,radar,cameras,computervisionandmachinelearningalgorithms,driverlessvehiclescanenableamachinetosenseitssurroundingsandactaccordingly.NotonlyareSiliconValleytechnologycompaniesenteringthemarket,buttraditionalcompaniesarebuildingnewpartnershipstostayrelevant.

Forinstance,BMWiscollaboratingwithChineseInternetsearchgiantBaidu9;FordisworkingwithMassachusettsInstituteof

Technology(MIT)andStanfordUniversity.10

Asinnovationbegetsinnovation,thepotentialimpactofdriverlessvehiclesoneconomiescouldeventuallyextendwellbeyondtheautomotiveindustry.Mobileserviceproviderscouldseeevenmoredemandfromsubscribersasdrivers,nowfreetoenjoyleisureactivitieswhiletraveling,spendmoretimeontheInternet,which,inturn,couldcreatenewadvertisingopportunitiesfortheserviceprovidersandsellingopportunitiesfortheirretailerpartners.

Theinsuranceindustrycouldcreatenewrevenuestreamsfromthemassesofdatathatself-drivingvehiclesgenerate.Bycombiningvehicledatawithotherstreamssuchassmartphonesandpublictransportsystems,theycouldnotonlybuildupamorecompletepictureoftheircustomers,butalsotheycouldcreatenewpoliciesthatinsuretotalcustomermobility,notjustdriving.

Real-time,accurateroadandtrafficdatageneratedbydriverlessvehiclescouldsupplementothersourcesofinformationtoenablelocalauthoritiestochangethewaytheychargeforroadusage.Standardvehicleregistrationcouldbereplacedwithmoreequitableandconvenientpay-per-useroadtolls,withinstantlyupdatedpricestohelpreducecongestion.

Therecouldevenbesignificantsocialbenefits.Driverlessvehiclesareexpectedtoreducethenumberofroadaccidentsandtrafficfatalitiesdramatically,makingthetechnologypotentiallyoneofthemosttransformativepublichealthinitiativesinhumanhistory.Theycouldalsogivebackindependencetopeoplewhocannotdriveduetodisability,enablingthemtotakeupjobsfromwhichtheywerepreviouslyexcluded.

And,evenamongthosewhocandrive,driverlesscarswillmaketravelingfarmoreconvenient,freeinguptimethatpeoplecandedicatetoworkorleisure.

FACTORINGINAI

TounderstandthevalueofAIasanewfactorofproduction,Accenture,inassociationwithFrontierEconomics,modeledthepotentialimpactofAIfor12developedeconomiesthattogethergeneratemorethan50percentoftheworld’seconomicoutput.11

Ourresultsrevealunprecedentedopportunitiesforvaluecreation.WefindthatAIhasthepotentialtodoubleannualeconomicgrowthratesacrossthesecountries—apowerfulremedyforslowingratesinrecentyears.

Boostingnationaleconomicgrowth

ToestimatetheeconomicpotentialofAIwecomparedtwoscenariosforeachcountry.Thefirstisthebaseline,whichshowstheexpectedannualeconomicgrowthrateundercurrentassumptionsaboutthefuture.ThesecondistheAI

scenario,whichshowsexpectedeconomicgrowthoncetheimpactofAIhasbeenabsorbedintotheeconomy.Asittakestimefortheimpactofanewtechnologytofeedthrough,weused2035astheyearofcomparison.(see“Appendix:ModelingtheGVAimpactofAI”).

Accordingtoourresearch,AIyieldsthehighesteconomicbenefitsfortheUnitedStatesinabsoluteterms,culminatingina4.6percentgrowthrateby2035(seeFigure7).Japancouldmorethantripleitsgrossvalueadded(GVA)growthduringthesameperiod,

raisingitfrom0.8percentto2.7percent.Germany,Austria,SwedenandtheNetherlandscouldseetheirannualeconomicgrowthratesdouble(see“AI’spotentialimpactonnationalgrowth”).

Cross-countrycomparisonsmaskthesignificantimpactthatAIcouldhaveonseeminglylaggingeconomies,suchasItaly,SpainandBelgium.Whiletheleveloftechnologicalmaturityandpublicinvestmentdoesnotyetmatchthatoftheirleadingpeers,thesecountriesarealsosettobenefitfromAI.Forinstance,AIisexpectedtoraiseItaly’sgrowthrateto1.8percentby2035—thelowestGVArateincreaseinthecountriesanalyzed—butthisisstillasizeableamount(nearlyUS$230billionor15percentofthecountry’scurrentGVA).

FIGURE7:THEECONOMICIMPACTOFAI

AIhasthepotentialtodoubleannualeconomicgrowthratesinthecountriesthatweanalyzedintermsofgrossvalueadded(acloseapproximationofGDP).

4.6

BASELINE

AISTEADYSTATE

4.1

2.7

2.7

2.1

1.7

1.7

1.8

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.4

1.4

1.0

UNITED

FINLAND

UNITED SWEDENNETHERLANDSGERMANYAUSTRIA FRANCE

JAPAN

BELGIUM

SPAIN

ITALY

STATES

KINGDOM

Realgrossvalueadded(GVA)(%,growth)

Source:AccentureandFrontierEconomics

FIGURE8:INCREASEINLABORPRODUCTIVITYINANAIWORLD

Artificialintelligencepromisestosignificantlyboosttheproductivityoflaborindevelopedeconomies.

SwedenFinlandUnitedStatesJapan

37%

36%

35%

34%

NetherlandsUnitedKingdomFrance

Belgium

20%

17%

27%

25%

AustriaGermany

30%

29%

ItalySpain

12%

11%

Percentagedifferencebetweenbaselinein2035andAIsteadystatein2035

Source:AccentureandFrontierEconomics

Laborproductivityrevival

AIhasthepotentialtoboostlaborproductivitybyupto40percentin2035inthecountrieswestudied(seeFigure8).Thisriseinlaborproductivitywillnotbedrivenbylongerhoursbutbyinnovativetechnologiesenablingpeopletomakemoreefficientuseoftheirtime.

Thislaborproductivityincreasedramaticallyreducesthenumberofyearsrequiredforouranalyzedcountries’economiestodoubleinsize(seeFigure9).Theresultsareprimarilydrivenbyacountry’sabilitytodiffusetechnologicalinnovationsintoitswidereconomicinfrastructure.Whilethegainsvaryfromcountrytocountry,ourresultsareindicativeofAI’sability

totranscendregionalandstructuraldisparities,enablinghuge,rapidleapsinlaborproductivity.

FIGURE9:TIMEFORECONOMIESTODOUBLEINSIZE

AIpavesthewaytofastereconomicgrowth.

UnitedStates UnitedKingdom Germany

France Japan Italy

Baseline AIsteadystate

Numberofyearsfortheeconomytodoubleinsize(afullcirclerepresents100years)

Source:AccentureandFrontierEconomics

Overall,AIisexpectedtounleashremarkablebenefitsacrosscountries,counteringdismaleconomicgrowthprospectsandredefining“thenewnormal”asaperiodofhighandlong-lastingeconomicgrowth.

AI’SPOTENTIALIMPACTONNATIONALECONOMICGROWTH

Byfocusingonindividualcountries,wecananalyzetheimpactofAIinmoredetail.Wecomparethesizeofeacheconomyin2035inabaselinescenariowiththeAIscenario,whereAIhasbeenabsorbedintotheeconomy.WecanalsoseetherelativeimportanceofthethreechannelsthroughwhichAIhasaneffect.

897

3,372

4,036

23,835

AIsteadystate

23,835

Baseline

TotalGVA:

US$32,140B

+US$8,305B

UnitedStates

AstrongentrepreneurialbusinessclimateandadvancedinfrastructurepositiontheUnitedStatestobenefitfromtheeconomicpotentialofAI.AccentureresearchforecastsasignificantincreaseinUnitedStates’GVAgrowth,from

2.6percentto4.6percentin2035—alevelnotseensincetheeconomicpeakinthe1980s.ThistranslatestoanadditionalUS$8.3trillionGVAin2035—equivalenttotoday’scombinedGVAofJapan,GermanyandSweden.

IntelligentAutomationAugmentation

Totalfactorproductivity(TFP)

19 | Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth

Baseline

Baseline

AIsteadystate

TotalGVA:

3,206

US$4,020B

6,059

AIsteadystate

TotalGVA:

US$8,128B

78

+US$814B

162

+US$2,068B

UnitedKingdom

AIcouldaddanadditionalUS$814billionin2035totheUK’seconomy—withgrowthratesincreasingfrom2.5percentto3.9percentin2035.Thegrowthboostwillresultin

approximatelyequalpartsfromtheaugmentationandintelligentautomationchannels.WhiletheUK’sdominantservicesectorcanadoptAItofueltheproductivityofknowledgeworkers,Britain’sstrongpharmaceuticalandaerospaceindustrycouldalsocapitalizeonintelligentsystemstooptimizeproduction.

Japan

Inourmodel,AIwillaccelerateexpectedgrowthfrom0.8percentto2.7percentin2035,resultinginUS$2.1trillionofadditionalGVAforJapan.Amongthecountrieswestudied,Japanisexpectedtobenefitconsiderablyfromadditionalinnovationeffectsdrivenbyitssophisticatedresearchnetworks,dominanceinpatentapplicationsandlongstandingprowessinfieldslikerobotics.Consideringitslargeelectronicsgoodsindustry,JapanoffersafavorablecontextforAItostimulatewidergrowthimpact.

AIsteadystate

447

3,735

3,735

545

TotalGVA:

US$4,814B

IntelligentAutomationAugmentation

Totalfactorproductivity(TFP)

Germany

AIcouldcontributeanadditionalUS$1.1trillionGVAforGermanyin2035.Thebulkofeconomicrewardswillstemfromintelligentautomation.Itsadvancedmanufacturingsector,coupledwithinitiativeslikeIndustry4.0,offerprimeconditionsforaseamlessintegrationofintelligentsystemsintoproductionprocesses.

20 | Whyartificialintelligenceisthefutureofgrowth

CLEARINGTHEPATHTOANAIFUTURE

EntrepreneurElonMuskhaswarnedthatartificialintelligencecouldbecomehumanity’s“biggestexistentialthreat.”ThemoreoptimisticviewoffuturistRayKurzweilisthatAIcanhelpustomake“majorstridesinaddressingthe[world’s]grandchallenges.”

Thetruthis,italldependsonhowwemanagethetransitiontoaneraofAI.

TofulfilthepromiseofAIasanewfactorofproductionthatcanreigniteeconomicgrowth,relevantstakeholdersmustbethoroughlyprepared—intellectually,technologically,politically,ethically,socially—toaddressthechallengesthatariseasartificialintelligencebecomesmoreintegratedinourlives.

Thestartingpointisunderstandingthecomplexityoftheissues.

PreparethenextgenerationfortheAIfuture

Successfullyintegratinghumanintelligencewithmachineintelligence,sothattheycoexistinatwo-waylearningrelationship,willbecomemorecritical

thanever.Asthedivisionoftasksbetweenmanandmachinechanges,policymakersneedtoreevaluatethetypeofknowledgeandskillsimpartedtofuturegenerations.

Currently,technologicaleducationgoesinonedirection:peoplelearnhowtousemachines.Increasingly,thiswillchangeasmachineslearnfromhumans,

andhumanslearnfrommachines.

Forexample,customerservicesrepresentativesofthefuturewillneedtoactas“rolemodels”totheirdigitalcolleagues,andpotentiallyviceversa.

TechnicalskillswillalsoberequiredtodesignandimplementAIsystems,

exploitingexpertiseinmanyspecialtiesincludingrobotics,vision,audioandpatternrecognition.Butinterpersonalskills,creativityandemotionalintelligencewillalsobecomeevenmoreimportantthantheyaretoday.

EncourageAI-poweredregulation

Asautonomousmachinestakeovertasksthathaveexclusivelybeenundertakenbyhumans,currentlawswillneedtoberevisited.Forinstance,thestateofNew

York’s1967lawthatrequiresdriverstokeeponehandonthewheelwasdesignedtoimprovesafety,butmayinhibittheuptakeofsemi-autonomoussafetyfeatures,suchasautomaticlanecentralization.12

Inothercases,newregulationiscalledfor.Forexample,thoughAIcouldbeenormouslybeneficialinaidingmedicaldiagnoses,physiciansavoidusingthesetechnologies,fearingthatthattheywouldbeexposedtoaccusationsofmalpractice.13Thisuncertaintycouldinhibituptakeandhinderfurtherinnovation.

AIitselfcanbepartofthesolution,creatingadaptive,self-improvingregulationthatclosesthegapbetweenthepaceoftechnologicalchangeandthepaceofregulatoryresponse.Inthesamewaythatintelligentsolutionscombinedwith

massivedatacanguidedecisionmakinginareassuchasurban,healthcareandsocialservicesplanning,theycouldalsobeusedtoupdateregulationsinlightofnewcost-benefitevaluations.

Advocatea