英文论文 房价线性回归分析

Thedistributionofeducationalresourcesin

BeijingcityandthehousingpricesAbstract：Housepriceisnotonlyaffectedbynationalmacroeconomicpolicy,butalsoaffectedbythepublicfacilitiesandtheenvironmentaround.Theequilibriumdistributionofeducationresourceresultinhousepricefluctuation.Thatisnotequityandwidenthegapbetweentherichandthepoor.WeresearchthefactorsaffectingthehousepriceofBeijing'keyschools,resultpointthatschooldistricthousepriceis13.8%higherthanthatofnon-schooldistricthousehavingsimilarconditions.Bycontrollingotherpublicresources,likesubwaystation,parkandkindergarten,anditselfproperty,likehouseage,greeningrate,plotratio,resultsuggestthatschooldistricthouseinHaidianandChaoyanghavepremiumof31%.Meanwhile,theyhavepremiumof23%totally.Theresultis,differenthousepricereflectinequalityofBeijing'seducationresources,andmostpartofhighqualityresourcesdistributeincentralarea.Thesespatialpatternisunreasonable,reducingtheutilizationofhighqualitypublicresources,andresultinginsharpriseofhousepriceinthecentralarea,lastly,expandingwealthgap.Sothegovernmentshouldenhancequalityofeducationandimprovetrafficefficiency.Throughthesemeasures,wecanreachthesegoals:thesuburbsimprovingitsattractiveness,populationdensityofBeijingdecreasing,andmoreimportantly,publicresourcesdistributingequality.Keywords:houseprice;publicresource;factors;inequality;populationdensity1.IntroductionRealestateisoneofthemostimportantpartsoftheeconomyinourcountry,thepriceriseistheresultofmultiplefactors.Thequalityofpublicresourcesisanimportantfactortoaffectthepriceofhousing,whichisespeciallyimportantintheteachingqualityofresidentialbuildings.Theeducationresourceshasalwaysbeenanimportantimpactonhousingprices,forexample,accordingtothestudy,in2004,inthetransitionprocessfromapoorschoolinLondontoatopschool,housepriceshaveanincreaseof61000pounds.EarlystudiessuchasOates(1969)onthecostofrealestatepricesandpublicschoolsspendingoneachstudents,hefoundthattheyhaveasignificantpositivecorrelation,andthenegativeeffectofhousepropertytaxonhousingpricescanbeoffsetiftheyspendthemoneytotheschool,thestudyshowsthatresidentstendtopayhigherpricestobetterpublicservices.AndFullertonRosen(1977)believesthattheuseofeachstudent'sspendinginpublicschoolsasavariableisnotveryappropriate,becausethecostofeducation,andotherfactorsarenoteasyandaccurate,sotheyusetheaverageperformanceofstudentsonbehalfoftheschoolquality,theresultsshowthatthedataandpricesaresignificantlypositivecorrelation.However,itisnotverygoodtosolvetheproblem,inordertobetterquantificationthequalityofschoolteaching,LucasFiglio(2004)introducedtheschoolqualityratingreportthestategovernmentissuedasasupplementtothestudents'averagetestscore,thestudyshowsthatwhenintroducedschoolqualityratingsystem,thepricewillchangesignificantly,butovertime,thiseffectisrapidlydecreasing,andonlyinthefirsttime,itplayagreaterrole.Becauseoftheimpactofhousingpricesisnotjusttheschoolteachingquality,whichleadstomissingvariables,theexistenceofthiserrorwillaffecttheaccuracyoftheresultsoftheregression.Inrecentyears,theschooldistricthousingphenomenoninChinahasbecomemoreandmorenoticeablefromthepricepointofview,forexampleLangyaRoadPrimarySchool,Lixueprimaryschool,LhasaRoadPrimarySchoolarethreeeliteschoolsinNanjing,,from2008toApril2009,pricesrosequickly,theschooldistricthousingpricesaremorethan3000yuan/m2thantheaverageprice,evenin2009,housingpricesgenerallyfell8.9%,theschooldistricthousingpricesinAprilisstillstable.ThemechanismbywhichtheresidentschoosetochoosetheirplaceofresidencetoinfluencethehousingpriceislikelytoexistinChina.Ifthismechanismexists,itwillreflectthequalityofeducationinapartofthehousingprice.Regardlessoftheeconomicsituationisgoodorbad,theschooldistricthousingpriceswillnotfollowtheeconomiclaw.Researchshowsthat,somefamousprimaryschoolhasasignificanteffectontheschooldistricthousingpremium.Thispaperfocusesontheimpactofkeyprimaryschoolonhousingprices,thusrevealingtheunreasonabledistributionofBeijingeducationresources,andfromtheperspectiveofoptimizingtheeducationalspacepattern,promotingequalopportunitiesforeducationandreducingpopulationdensityofBeijingcity,wehavediscussedtheproblemofthedevelopmentofBeijingcity.Inthispaper,wehavefouraspectsofimprovementbasedonthepreviousresearch,1,thedataisnolongerlineardistancefortheparameters,buttheuseoftheshortestwalkingdistancetomaketheanalysismoreclosetoreality.2,thispaperstudiestheHaidianDistrictChaoyangDistrict,XichengDistrictandDongchengDistrict,itisdifferentfromthecommonuseofTiananmenasthecenterofthemethodtocontrolthedegreeofprosperity.3,theselectionofprimaryschoolinBeijingCityisthemostfamousones.ratherthantheBeijingMunicipalEducationCommission'sapproval.4,thedataissecond-handhousingtransactiondata,soitismorereliable.datadescriptionandresearchmethodsBasedontheexistingresearch,thispaperusesthedataofBeijingcityhousingtransaction,andusingthemodeltocontroltherelevantvariables,wewanttogetaeffectiveregressionresults,andanalyzetheeffectsofeducationquality,transportationfacilitiesandenvironmentallandscapeonthehouseprice.thedivisionoftheschooldistrictandtheschooldistricthouseCompulsoryeducationlawofChinaestablishedthetheenrollmentpolicythatChinesecameneartotheentrance,namelyforeveryprimaryschool,thereisascribearea,andwithinthescopeofthescribearea,childrenhaveanexemptionentrancetreatment.So,generallyspeaking,eachdistricthasacorrespondingprimaryschool.Thismayhaspromotedtheequalityofeducationopportunity,however,thereisadifferenceinthequalityofprimaryschool,relativelyspeaking

someschool'squalityofeducationisfarhigherthanordinarybythegovernment'sprioritysupport.Althoughthegovernmenthasabolishedthesystemofdividingtheprimaryschoolin2000,thesocialprestigeoftheprimaryschoolhasbeenestablished,andthestatusoftheprimaryschoolisincreasing.Thispaperselects19primaryschoolsinBeijingcityasadatasource,table1isrecognizedasakeyprimaryschoollist.Table1listofkeyprimaryschoolsBeijingfirstexperimentalprimaryschool,BeijingNo.2experimentalprimaryschool,BeijingXichengDistricthuangchengdenprimaryschool,XichengDistrict,PekingCity,YuMingprimaryschool,BeijingCity,XichengQuYuxiangelementaryschool,BeijingYucaielementaryschool,struggleelementaryschoolXichengDistrictPrimaryschoolaffiliatedtoBeijingHaidianDistrictExperimentalPrimarySchool,Beijing,HaidianDistrict,ZhongguancunNo.1PrimarySchool,HaidianDistrict,BeijingZhongguancunNo.2primaryschool,Beijing,HaidianDistrict,ZhongGuanCunthethirdwillowbranch,BeijingZhongguancunNo.3primaryschoolcampusinZhongguancun,RenminUniversityofChinaHaidianDistricThefirstBeijingNormalSchoolAffiliatedelementaryschool,BeijingJingshanSchoolNorthPrimarySchoolDepartment,BeijingCityExperimentalPrimarySchool,Dengshikouprimaryschool,DongchengDistrict,Beijing,DongchengDistrict,PekingCity,historiansprimaryDongchengDistrictBeijingfangcaodeInternationalSchoolChaoyangDistrict★天變门街遺边界N例一行政区边界A—f亠―km•逐点小学--坏线，65101520Figure1primarydistributionmapofBeijingCityFigure1isaprimarydistributionmapofBeijingcity.AsshowninFigure1,theprimaryschoolinBeijingisnotinuniformdistribution,theyareconcentratedinthecomparisonofthecityofHaidianDistrict,ChaoyangDistrict,DongchengDistrictandXichengDistrict.Infact,thefamousprimaryschoolsaremostlydistributedinthesefourareas.BeijingMunicipalEducationCommissionin1950shasannouncedthelistof40municipalprimaryschools,today,theseprimaryschoolsarestillthebestprimaryschoolinBeijing.Andhasbeenwidelyrecognizedbythecommunity,andthevastmajorityoftheseprimaryschoolsareintheabovefourdistricts.housingdataFromFigure1,wecanseethatthegeographicaldistributionofBeijingcityisbasicallyacentertothesurroundingTiananmen,fromalinktotherings,arebuiltaroundtheTiananmen.Wecollectedatotalof19Beijingmunicipalkeyprimaryschooldistrictscribingatotalof120residentialand112noncshooldistrictdata.Variablesincludesecond-handhousingaverageprice,,age(minusthe2015yearbuilt),volumerate,greenrate,distancetothecenterofthecity(inKM),distancetothesubwaystation(inKM),,distancetothekindergarten(inKM),distancetoshoppingmalls(inKM),distancetothepark(inKM),.Andintroducesomedummyvariables,suchasasmallprimaryschooldistrictis1,otherwisethevalueis0.Table2isadescriptionofthecollectedcelldata.AsshowninTable2,theaveragepriceofsecond-handhousingis54387,themeandistancefromthedowntownis7.21km,theaveragehouseageis15.67years,theaveragerateofvolumeis2.68,averagegreeningrateis32%,andthemeandistancefromthenearestsubwaystationis0.87km,tothenearestkindergartenflatwere1.24km,averagedistancetothenearestmallis0.95km,themediandistancetothenearestparkis1.22km,theschooldistrictroompriceis13267yuan/m2higherthantheaverage,anditisabout27.9%.Table2celldescriptionAveragepriceAllsampleSchooldistrictroomNonschooldistrictroomPrices54387.8460870.3747603.5Downtowndistance7.216.797.59Age15.6717.4113.86Volumeratio2.682.422.98Greeningrate0.320.260.33Distancetothesubwaystation0.870.850.89distancetokindergarten7distancetothemall0.950.950.95Distancetothepark1.220.991.06theestablishmentthemodelInthispaper,weusethecharacteristicpricemethodtoanalyzethehouseprice,thefollowingistheloglinearmodelusedinthispaper:•vsf［二二一二匚：.-:一亍烷匕匚；-...(1)Amongthem,X1imeansthepropertyoftheDistrict,includingtheage,thevolumeofresidential,greeningrate,etc..X2irepresentdistancevariables,includingdistancetothesubwaystation,distancetothenursery,distancetothemallandthedistancetothepark,Pschoolisadummyvariable,usedtoindicatewhetherthedistrictistheschooldistrictroom.empiricalanalysis3.1.BeijingcityhousepriceanalysisTable3istheresultoftheoverallregressionoftheDistrictofalldistrictsinthecity.Theregressionincludessquare,hospital,park,subwaystation,highschool,elementaryschool,andsoon.Theresultsshowthatinthe5%confidencelevel,thedistancetotheBeijingcitycenterhasanegativeeffect,whilethesubwaystationandprimaryschoolhaveapositiveeffectonprices;inthe10%confidencelevel,theparkisstatisticallysignificant,andsquare,middleschoolandhospitalstatisticsisnotsignificant.Itisworthnotingthatthehospital'scoefficientmeansanegativeeffectinacertainsense,Thereasonwhythesquareisnotsignificant,itmaybethatasaleisureplace,suchasfoodSquare,shoppingplaza,theycannotprovideagreatattraction.Table3dataanalysisofBeijingCityParameterestimateStd.ErrorTvaluePr(>|t|)distancetoTiananmen-0.4510.025-17.498<2e-16***squareinamile0.0070.0380.1860.852squareinamile-0.0420.040-1.0490.294Parkinamile0.0490.0351.3680.172Subwayinamile0.1610.0413.8650.000**Middleschoolinamile-0.0310.036-0.8740.382keyprimaryschoolinamile0.1770.0553.1910.001**Constantterm11.6730.094122.997<2e-16***Signif.codes:0‘***'0.001‘**'0.01‘*'0.05‘.'0.1‘'1MultipleR-squared:0.7013F-statistic:120.8on7and360DFInfact,table3istheresultoftheregressionresultsoftheoveralldataofBeijing,itcanonlybearoughdisplayoftheoverallsituation.Infact,withinthesecondringevenwithinthethirdring,mostofthekeyprimaryschoolslocatedinthevicinityofseveralcitiesaroundthecity,themajorityofthepropertieshaveadvantagesofhospitalresources,onetomanysubwaystations,manysecondaryschoolsandmoreprimaryschools.whenconsumerspurchaseahouse,thesubway,hospitals,secondaryschools,primaryschoolsandotherfactorswillbeconsidered,resultinginahigherrealestateprices.Inordertofurtheranalyzetheroleofthesubwaystation,hospital,park,middleschoolinpromotingtheriseinhousingprices,weanalyzethedataofeachlink,toobservetheinformationofeachlink.Infact,thedesignoftheBeijinglinkcanbeseenastheTiananmenasthecenter,sothelinkcanalsobeseenasasymbolofthedegreeofregionalprosperity.AsshowninTable4,theresultsshowthatneartheparkthepriceis2.4%lowerthanestatefarawayfromthepark,andpriceis9.5%higherwhenitisaschooldistrictroom,itis14.4%higherwhenthehouseisnearaparkfromline2toline3,andmorethan22.4%higherwhenitisnearthesubwaystation,and13.42%higherthanotherpropertieswhenitisaschooldistrictroom.Anditis15.6%higherthantheotherpropertieswhenthehouseisnearthepark,23.4%higherofschooldistrictroomfromline3toline4.Andsoasline5toline6.Table4regressionanalysisParameterEstimateStd.ErrortvaluePr(>|t|)Line20.9020.1984.5527.37e-06***Line30.7810.3482.2420.025*Line40.7900.1814.3481.81e-05***Line50.7500.0947.9203.30e-14***Line60.3910.0675.7821.66e-08***Square0.0080.0400.1990.842Hospital-0.0570.043-1.3230.186Park0.0040.0660.0690.944Subway0.4520.1104.1055.05e-05***

Middleschool-0.0140.038-0.3620.717Primaryschool0.2360.1481.5960.111Line2*park-0.0280.173-0.1660.868Line2*pschool-0.1410.203-0.6960.486Line3*park0.1390.3260.4270.669Line3*subway-0.2280.184-1.2400.215Line3*pschool-0.1020.193-0.5300.596Line4*park0.1510.1441.0520.293Line4*subway-0.3320.169-1.9560.051*Line4*pschool-0.0040.177-0.0240.980Line5*park-0.0210.127-0.1670.867Line5*subway-0.2120.148-1.4370.151Line6*park0.0110.0890.1330.894Line6*subway-0.3540.126-2.7950.005*Constantterm9.9370.046214.588<2e-16***Signif.codes:0'***'0.001'**'0.01'*'0.050.1c'1MultipleR-squared:0.694F-statistic:34.02on23and345DF3.2fourdistricthousepriceanalysisTomoreaccurateunderstandingofthevariousregions,wedistinguishbetweenHaidianandChaoyangasagroup,DongchengandXichengasagroup,infact,becausetheeconomicsituationinDongchengDistrictandXichengDistrictismoresimilar,thesamewayChaoyangDistrictandHaidianDistricteconomicconditions.Fromthemap,thecenterofBeijingisindeedTiananmen,butthenorthernpartofBeijing'sbusinessismoreprosperousthanthesouthernpartofBeijing,soBeijingcityinthisareaisnotsymmetricaldistribution.Table5fourareaanalysisfourdistrictVariableModel(i)(ii)(iii)(iv)Schooldistrictroom0.237777(12857.4)0.2684(14347.056)0.229659(12504.3)0.248(13373.63)t-value9.438(9.799)9.859(10.314)8.455(8.792)8.916(9.103)CharacteristiconeNoYesNoYesCharacteristictwoNoNoYesYes|DistanceYesNoYesYesTable5AnalysistheschooldistricthousingpremiumofChaoyangDistrict,HaidianDistrict,DongchengDistrict,XichengDistrict,inthefirstcolumn(I),thedistancetotheTiananmenareaareconsideredascontrolvariables,andthenweregressontheschooldistricthousingprices,resultsshowedthattheschooldistrictroomaremorethan23.8%higherthannonschooldistricthousingprices,theabsolutepriceis12867yuan/squaremeter(afterusing23.8%(12867))premium;column(II)controltheproperityofschooldistrictroom(volumerate,greenrate,ageandotherfactors),theparametersoftheschooldistricthousingdummyvariablesbecomeslightlyhigher,reaching26.8%(14347);thirdcolumn(III)controldistancevariables(tothedistancepropertiesnearthesubway,hospital,Park),itshowedthattheschooldistricthousingpremiumis23%(12504);fourthcolumn(IV)controlattributesanddistanceproperties,theresultsshowthattheschooldistricthousingpremiumis24.8%(13373).Fromastatisticalpointofview,intable5,foursetsofregressionresultsissignificantatthe99%confidencelevel,thefirstcolumn(I)isusedtocontroltheresidentialareatoTiananmendistancetoachievecontrolofotherrelevantfactors,thesefactorsincludebustlingdegreeintheresidentialdistrictetc;thesecondcolumn(II)controlledtheattributesofthearea(age,greeningrate,volumerate,propertycosts,etc.),toexpecttoeliminateerrorofFangling,afterallpoorlandscape,smallspacehousemoreunattractivethanordinaryresidential,andthepricemaybelower,andviceversa.Thethirdcolumn(III)controlsthedistancepropertiesofcell(awayfromthesubwaystation,park),becausehousinglandscape,subwayhousingandevenhospitalroommayhavesomeroleinpremium,controlledthedistancevariablecanoffsetotherresidentiallocationerrors.Thefourthcolumn(IV)controlledtheirpropertiesandthedistancepropertiesintheDistrict,inordertogetabetterreturn.Throughacomparisonofthefirstandfourthcolumns,wecanknowthatwhenestmatethecharacteroneandcharactertwotwo,theschooldistricthousingpremiumchangeisnottoolarge(23.78%,24.8%),whichmeans,inthefourdistrict,thecharacteristic'seffectisnotobvious;throughthecomparisonofsecondcolumnandfourthcolumn,whenconsiderthecharacteroneasthecontrolvariables,thepremiumissignificantlyreducedfrom26.84to24.8%,whichshowsthatthedistancehasobviousexplanatorypowerofthepricepremiumThisvalidatesourcommonsense,thatis,thefartherawayfromthecitycenter,thelowertheprice.analysisofDongcheng&XichengdistrictpricesTable6localanalysisofEastandWestdistrictDongcheng,XichengModelVariable(i)(ii)(iii)(iv)Schooldistrictroom0.13781(8105.3)0.1841(10631.558)0.1785(10623.317)0.15(10078.483)t-value4.215(4.700)5.564(6.068)4.976(5.579)4.1(4.438)CharacteristiconenoyesnoyesCharacteristicnonoyesyestwoDistanceyesnoyesyesTable6AnalysisHousingpremiumoftheDongchengDistrict,XichengDistrict,thefirstcolumncontroledthestraightlinedistancefromdistricttotheTiananmen,theresultsshowthattheschooldistricthousingpricesis13.8%(8105)higherthanthenonschooldistrictroom.Secondcolumncontroledtheschooldistrict'sownproperties,theparametersofthedummyvariableofschooldistrictroomisslightlylarger,reached18.4%(10631).Thirdcolumncontrolledthedistanceproperty,theresultsshowthattheschooldistricthousingpremiumis17.9%(10623).Fourthcolumncontroledthecell'sownattributesanddistanceproperties,theresultsshowthattheschooldistricthousingpremiumis15%(10078).AccordingtotheresultsofanalysisofDongcheng,Xicheng,theschooldistricthousingpremiumisrelativelysmall,thereasonmaybeDongcheng,XichengofthecitydistrictsinthegeographiclocationisclosertodowntownBeijing,theregionaleducationresourceisvearrich(notonlyhasalargenumberofBeijingmunicipalkeyprimaryschool,andcoupledwithotherpublicresourcesmakingthemarginalutilityoftheschooldistrictroomdecreased),therebyreducingthemarginalutilityoftheschooldistrictroom.Ontheotherhand,thaturbanresidentialhasbasicallyisthemostexpensive,thepriceupsideissmallerIncontrasttothefirstcolumnandthefourthcolumn,whenmakethedistanceasthecontrolvariables,andaddthecharacteroneandcharactertwo,thecoefficientoftheschooldistrictroomisslightlychanged,butthechangeisnotbig,whichmeansthatthemainfactoraffectingthepriceofthehouseisdistance,throughthecontrastbetweenthesecondcolumnsandfourthcolumns,wecanseethetthecoefficientoftheschooldistrictroomissignificantlysmaller.3.4Haidian&ChaoyanghousepriceanalysisInthesameway,weanalyzetherelationshipbetweenthepriceandthefactorsofthetwodistrictofHaidian&Chaoyang,andcarryouttheregressionanalysis.Table7partialanalysisofChaoyangHaidianDistrictChaoyangHaidianDistrictVariable模型(i)(ii)(iii)(iv)Schooldistrictroom0.338(17501.0)0.3796474(19384.2)0.310001(15942.3)0.34(17566.8)t-value8.522(8.471)9.525(9.724)7.199(7.100)8.095(8.056)CharacteristiconeNoyesNoyesCharacteristictwoNoNoyesyesDistanceyesNoyesyesTable7isaboutHaidianDistrictandChaoyangDistrict'sschooldistricthousingpremium,thefirstcolumn(I)controlledthestraightdistancefromtheareatoTiananmendistance.Theresultsshowedthattheschooldistrictroomismorethan33.8%higherthanthenonschooldistricthousingprices.thesecondcolumn(II)controlledtheschooldistrictroom'sownproperty,theschooldistrictroomvirtualvariableparameterisslightlylarger,reaching38%(19384);thethirdcolumn(III)controlledthedistanceproperties,theresultsshowtheschooldistricthousingpremiumis31%(15942);thefourthcolumn(IV)controlledtheresidentialownattributeanddistanceattribute.Theresultsshowedthattheschooldistricthousingpremiumis37.1%(19045).RelativetotheDongcheng,Xicheng,andthefullfourdistricts,ChaoyangDistrict,HaidianDistrict'sschooldistricthousingpremiumismuchlarger.ThereasonmaybethatChaoyangDistrictandHaidianDistrictdeviatesmorefromthecenterofBeijingonthegeographicalposition,andthepublicresourcesi