关键矿产展望比较分析 Critical Minerals Outlooks Comparison

F

CriticalMinerals

OutlooksComparison

AReportbytheInternationalEnergyForumandThePayneInstituteofPublicPolicyattheColoradoSchoolofMines

August2023

AreportbytheInternationalEnergyForumandThePayneInstituteofPublicPolicyattheColoradoSchoolofMines

August2023

Writtenandproducedby:

JulietAkamboe

EbenezerManful-Sam

FelixAyaburi

MasonHamilton

MorganBazilian

jsakamboe@

manfulsam@

fzayaburi@

mason.hamilton@

mbazilian@

AbouttheInternationalEnergyForum

TheInternationalEnergyForum(IEF)istheworld'slargestinternationalorganizationofenergyministersfrom71countriesandincludesbothproducingandconsumingnations.TheIEFhasabroadmandatetoexamineallenergyissuesincludingoilandgas,cleanandrenewableenergy,sustainability,energytransitionsandnewtechnologies,datatransparency,andenergyaccess.ThroughtheForumanditsassociatedevents,officials,industryexecutives,andotherexpertsengageinadialogueofincreasingimportancetoglobalenergysecurityandsustainability.

AboutThePayneInstitute

ThemissionofthePayneInstituteatColoradoSchoolofMinesistoprovideworld-classscientificinsights,helpingtoinformandshapepublicpolicyonearthresources,energy,andenvironment.TheInstitutewasestablishedwithanendowmentfromJimandArlenePayne,andseekstolinkthestrongscientificandengineeringresearchandexpertiseatMineswithissuesrelatedtopublicpolicyandnationalsecurity.ThePayneInstituteextendstopublicpolicyMines’convictionthatenergyandtheenvironmentmust–andcan–fruitfullycoexist.

TableofContents

Introduction

3

KeyFindings

5

Aluminum

5

Cobalt

7

Copper

9

Graphite

11

Lithium

13

Neodymium

15

Nickel

16

Silver

18

EnergyScenarios

20

ClimateOutcomeDriven

20

SharedEconomicPathways

20

SpeedofTransitionandTechnologicalProgress

20

Technologymixes

20

Othertechnologieswithinfluence

21

ResourceRequirements

21

TopDownvs.BottomUp

23

IntensityandResourceEfficiencyAssumptions

23

Sub-TechnologiesandChemistryShifts

23

Recycling

25

Conclusions

25

References

27

Appendix:BackgroundsofSurveyedReports

28

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2

Introduction

Historically,theenergysectorconstitutedonlyaminorpartofcriticalmineralssupplychainsandmarkets.However,withtheaccelerationofenergytransitions,cleanenergytechnologieshaverapidlyemergedasthesegmentwiththefastestgrowthindemand.

Thishascapturedpublicattentionglobally,andcreatedvarioustrade,market,andgeopoliticalissues.Asaresult,numerousanalyticalscenarioshavebeenproducedtobetterunderstandthisrapidlychangingandcomplexlandscape.

Inafuturetrajectoryalignedwithclimategoals,theproportionoftotalmineralsdemandaccountedforbycleanenergytechnologieswillrisesignificantlyovertheforthcomingtwodecades.Electricvehicles(EVs)andbatterystoragetechnologieshavealreadysupersededconsumerelectronicstobecomethelargestconsumersoflithium,andtheyareprojectedtosurpassstainlesssteeltobecometheprimaryendusersofnickelby2040,andbatteryanodesshareofgraphitedemandhasincreased250%since2018.

Asaresult,severalquantitativedemandmodelshavebeendevelopedtohelpunderstandthescaleofgrowth,andwhethermaterialshortageswillbecomeanobstacletothedeploymentofcleanenergytechnologies.

Thisreportisanon-comprehensivemeta-analysisof11publiclyavailablereportswhichincludevariousassumptionsforenergyandtechnologyscenarios,andtheirresultingcriticalmineralrequirements.Thisexerciseismeanttohighlightkeyinsightsforcriticalmineralsdecisionmakers.Thereportsarefromeightagenciesandorganizationsacrossdifferentgeographies,spanningfrom2019to2023.

.InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)

oWorldEnergyTransitionsOutlook,2023

oGeopoliticsoftheEnergyTransition,2023

oCriticalMineralsfortheEnergyTransition,2021

.InternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)

oTheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitions,2022

oCriticalMineralsMarketReview,2023

.WorldBank

oMineralsforClimateAction,2020

.InstituteforSustainableFuture(ISF)

oTheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitions,2019

.McKinsey&Company

oTheFutureofCriticalMineralsintheNet-ZeroTransition,2021

.CatholicUniversityofLuven(KULuven)

oMetalsforCleanEnergy:PathwaystoSolvingEurope’sRawMaterialsChallenge,2022

.EnergyTransitionsCommission(ETC)

oMineralandResourceRequirementsfortheEnergyTransition,2023

.GermanMineralResourcesAgency(DERA)

oRawMaterialsforEmergingTechnologies,2021

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3

All11reportsconsideredconcurontheincreasingdemandformineralsandtheircentralroleintheenergytransition.However,acrossthe11reports,28differentmineralsandmetalsarementioned,withsufficientdatatocompareonlyeight:aluminum,cobalt,copper,graphite,lithium,neodymium,nickel,andsilver.

Thesedemandprojectionsareinherentlysubjecttolargevariations.Disparitiesintheirspecificmineraldemandprojectionsreflectthedifferenttypesofenergyscenarioschosen,themixoftechnologiesdeployed,assumptionsonresourceintensity,technologydevelopments,andrecyclingrates.

Whileoutsidethescopeofthisreport,thesupplysidealsopresentsconsiderablechallengestolong-termforecaststhatmeritadditionalstudyanddiscussion.Manyofthereportssurveyedhighlightedtheriskstotheirprojectionsfromsupplysiderisks,butonlyafewincorporatedsupplyforecastsalongsidetheirdemandprojections.Allreportssurveyednotedtheimportanceofresponsiblesourcing,supplychaintransparency,recycling,andimprovedminingandprocessingefficiency.

Understandingthepotentialmineraldemandsassociatedwiththecleanenergytransitioniscrucialforpolicymakers,mineralproducers,renewableenergydevelopers,andcivilsocietyorganizationstounlockinvestment,setachievableclimatepolicies,andgainpublicacceptanceofnewmines.

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4

KeyFindings

Aluminum

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5

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6

Cobalt

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7

。

Copper

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9

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10

Graphite

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11

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12

Lithium

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13

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14

Neodymium

Note:ProductiondataofNeodymiuminU.S.GeologicalSurveydataiscategorizedwithother“RareEarthElements”andnotpublishedindividually.

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15

Nickel

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16

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17

Silver

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18

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19

EnergyScenarios

Thevariousreportshavedifferentenergyandtechnologyscenariostocalculatecriticalmineralrequirementsunderarangeofconditions.

ClimateOutcomeDriven

Multiplescenarioswerecreatedwithaspecificclimate-basedoutcomebyacertaindateasthegoal,andthenmodelstheenergysystemrequiredtoachievethatgoal.

Inthiscollectionofreports,climateoutcomedrivenscenariosrangedfromlimitingglobalaveragetemperatureriseto1.5°Cby2050,alignedwiththeIPCCspecialreport,to1.7°C,orto2°Cincrease.

CommonlyusedscenarioswerederivedfromInternationalEnergyAgencyscenarios,suchastheAnnouncedPoliciesScenario(APS),associatedwitha1.7°Ctemperatureriseby2100,andtheNet-ZeroEnergyScenario(NZE),associatedwitha1.5°Ctemperaturerise.

Additionally,severalreportsusedIEAscenariosdevelopedpriortotheuseofAPSandNZE,suchastheStatedPoliciesScenario(SPS),andtheSustainableDevelopmentScenario(SDS).TheSTEPSscenarioembodiesthepresentpolicylandscape,basedonasector-wiseappraisalofspecificpoliciesinplaceandthoseannouncedbygovernmentsglobally.Incontrast,theSDSscenarioenvisionsapathwaythatfullyrealizesglobalgoalstocombatclimatechangeinaccordancewiththeParisAgreement,ensuresuniversalenergyaccess,andsignificantlycurbsairpollution.Thisscenariopresupposesthefulfilmentofallexistingnet-zeropledges,withconcertedeffortstoachievenear-termemissionsreductions;advancedeconomiesareprojectedtoreachnet-zeroemissionsby2050,Chinaby2060,andallothernationsby2070atthelatest.

SharedEconomicPathways

TheSharedSocioeconomicPathways(SSPs),werecreatedaspartofthe5thAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)forclimatepolicyissues.EachSSPembodiesdifferentassumptionsabouttheglobalenergysystem'sfuture,andconsequentlycanbeusedtocalculatemineraldemandestimates.

SpeedofTransitionandTechnologicalProgress

Otherreportscreatedscenariosthatvariedthespeedandintensityoftheenergytransition,technologicalprogress,andincreasesinbothtechnologyandresourceefficiency.

Technologymixes

Technologiesemphasizedinthesereportsareunanimous,solarphotovoltaics(PV),windturbines,electricvehicles(EVs),batterystoragesystems,andelectricalgridexpansionareallcorecomponentsoftheseprojections.Thesetechnologiesarekeytoloweringgreenhousegasemissionsandsubsequentlydrivethedemandgrowthforcriticalmineralsthroughouttheprojectionperiod.

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20

Othertechnologieswithinfluence

Otherclimate-orientedtechnologieslikecarboncaptureuse&sequestration(CCUS),hydrogen,orkeydevelopmentsinotherrenewableenergysourceslikegeothermal,canmakepreviouslylesssustainableoptionsmorefavorableforthefuture,ordrasticallyaltertheneedandcompetitivenessofothers.Whilenotallthereportssurveyeddirectlydelveintoalternativetechnologiesortheirdeployments,theyshouldbeconsideredwhencomparingcriticalmineraldemandprojections.

ResourceRequirements

Whilethetechnologiesacrossthesurveyedreportswerenearlyunanimous,thetranslationofthosetechnologiesintodemandforcriticalmineralsiswherekeymethodologicaldifferencesarise.Forexample,atotaloftwenty-eight(28)mineralsandmetalswerementionedinallthereportssurveyed,echoingthediversityofwhatpolicymakersconsidertobe“critical”minerals.Governmentshaveindependentlydevelopedlistsofwhichmaterialsconstitutesa“criticalmineral”dependingondomesticallyavailableresources,importdependencies,importancetodomesticenergysystems,manufacturingbase,energypolicypriorities,andothercriteria.

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21

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22

TopDownvs.BottomUp

Therearealsodifferingapproachestoestimatedemandforcriticalmineralsacrossthevarioustechnologies.

The“bottom-up"approachinvolvesestimatingthematerialrequirementsforeachtechnologydeployed,thenmodelingthegrowthofeachtechnologyacrosstheprojectionperiodandscenariostoarriveatanestimateforthequantityofcriticalmineralsrequired.

The“top-down”approachinvolvesestimatingthegrowthrateofvarioustechnologiesacrossascenario,andthenestimatingtherequiredcriticalmineralsbasedonthisgrowth.

IntensityandResourceEfficiencyAssumptions

Withbothbottom-upandtop-downapproaches,assumptionsneedtobemadeontheintensityofmaterialspertechnologydeployed–kilogramsoflithiumperelectricvehicle,forexample.Aswellasassumptionsonifthatmaterialintensitychangesovertime.Theseestimatescanvarywidelyacrossscenariosandprojectionsandareamajorcontributortovarianceacrossthedifferentreportssurveyed.

Conservativeassumptionsarelikelytotakepresentratesofmaterialintensityandholdthemmoreorlessconstantacrossaprojectionperiod.Meaning,thequantityofamaterialrequiredperunitofrenewableenergytechnologyisthesamein2050asitistoday.

Moreprogressiveassumptionsincludegradualorrapidincreasesinresourceefficiencyacrosstheprojectionperiod.Inotherwords,thequantityofmaterialrequiredperunitofrenewableenergytechnologyislessin2050thanitistoday.

Sub-TechnologiesandChemistryShifts

Estimatesofrequiredcriticalmineralscanalsovarybasedonchangeswithinarenewableenergytechnologycategory.Factorssuchascost,energyintensity,andconsumerbehaviorandpreferencescanshapefuturemarketsandsub-technologies.Thesesub-technologiesinturncanfurtherinfluencethespecificmineralsrequiredfortheenergytransition.

Forinstance,acrosssolarenergytherearedifferentsub-technologiesthathavevariouschemistriesandresourcerequirements.Thepotentialpreferenceforcadmiumtelluride(CdTe)solarcellsoverthecurrentlyprevalenttechnology-crystallinesiliconphotovoltaiccells-couldshiftthedemandformineralslikecadmiumandtelluriuminthefuture.

However,themostprevalentexampleofsub-technologiesdrivingchemistryshiftsoccursinbatteries.Changesinmineralprices,processingexpenses,policyincentives,technologicaldevelopment,andotherfactorshaveresultedinamultitudeofbatterycathodechemistrymixessuchasnickel,manganese,cobalt(NMC),nickel,cobalt,aluminumoxide(NCA),andlithium,iron,phosphate(LFP)batteries.

Ingeneral,NMCcathodesrequirenearlyeighttimesmorecobaltthanNCAlithiumbatteries,butonlyhalfthenickelamount.LFPbatteries,whichdonotrequirenickel,manganese,orcobalt,requiremorecopperthanNMCbatteriesandphosphorus,akeyingredientinlarge-scalefertilizerproduction.

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Asaresultofthediversityinbatterycathodechemistry,changesinthepriceforoneormorebatteryrawmaterialscangreatlyinfluencetheprevailingorpredominantbatterytypedeployed.Suchshiftshavealreadyoccurredoverthecourseofthepast5-10yearsandarelikelytooccuragaininthefuture.Withinthepast5-years,highcobaltpricesandsupplychainissuesresultedinmanybatterymanufacturersshiftingtolow-cobaltbatterychemistries.Thenhighnickelpricesreducedthepricecompetitivenessofhigh-nickelcontentbatterychemistriesversusLFPbatteries.Thenin2022,asurgeinlithiumpricesledtoanincreaseinLFPbatterycostscomparedwithotherchemistries.WhileLFPbatteriesremainthemostaffordablebatterytechnologyperkilowatt-hour,asustainedincreaseinlithiumpricescouldslowdownthedeploymentofLFPasbatterychemistrypreference.

Thesedifferencesandthechangingadvancementsintechnologymakemineraldemandmodelsdifficulttoestimate.Thisresultsinawiderangeofmineraldemandestimates,evenwhen

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researchersagreeonthewidescaledeploymentofaspecificlow-carbonorrenewableenergytechnology.

Recycling

Whileallreportssurveyedinthisstudysuggestthatrecyclingcanbeausefultoolinmanagingcriticalmaterialssupply,itisalsoamajorsourceofvarianceacrosscriticalmineralrequirementestimates.

Recyclingratesvarygreatlyacrossdifferentmineralsbecauseofcosts,complexities,compromisedqualityoffinalproduct,ormaterialavailability.Aluminumandcopperaretwoofthemostwidelyrecycledmaterialsaswellastwomaterialsthatoverlapacrossnumerouslow-carbonandrenewableenergytechnologies.Meanwhile,recyclingtechnologyforcertaincriticalmaterialsisstillbeingdevelopedandnotyetatscale.Additionally,dataisoftenlackingforrecyclingratesbeiteitherbymaterial,feedstocksource(batteries,solarpanels,scrap,etc.),orregion.

However,theassumptionsmadeonrecyclingratesintheseprojectionsgreatlyinfluencetheimplicationsfornewminerequirements,supplychaindiversity,sustainability,andpolicy.Conservativeassumptionsofstagnantrecyclingratesintothefutureformanymineralswouldlikelytranslateintoprojectionsshowingafargreaterneedfornewmines,mininginvestment,andsupplychainexpansion.Progressiveassumptionsofincreasingrecyclingratesornearfully-cycleclosedloopsupplychainswouldlikelyresultinprojectionswithfewerlong-termnewminesrequirements.Cobaltandlithiumaretwocriticalmaterialsthathavethehighestnear-termriskofdemandoutpacingsupplyaccordingtomanyofthereportssurveyedinthisstudy.Asignificantfuturesourceofbothcouldbefromincreasedrecyclingratesofend-of-lifeelectricvehiclebatteries.However,recyclinginfrastructureforEVbatteriesisstillinitsinfancy,andtherearestilltechnologicalchallengestoovercome.Forexample,lithiumistechnicallyrecyclablebutischallengingtoisolatefromothercathodematerialswithouttheuseofcostlyorganicreagents.

Acrosstheprojectionssurveyed,themedium-term,~2035-2045,isthekeymakeorbreakpointforEVrecyclingratesandthuslithium,cobalt,andseveralothermineralsupplyrequirements.ThisreflectsboththetimeneededforrecyclinginfrastructureandtechnologytomatureaswellasthetimeneededforEV’sshareofglobalvehiclefleetstogeneratesufficientfeedstock(end-of-lifebatteries)forascaled-uprecyclingindustry.

Conclusions

Theimpendingtransitiontolow-carbonenergytechnologieshasalreadyaffectedcriticalmineralsupplychains,prices,anddemand.Still,itwillcontinuetobeverydifficulttoaccuratelyforecast.Whileprojectionsunanimouslyenvisionintensedeploymentofbatteryelectricvehicles,wind,solar,andothermineral-intenseenergytechnologiestoachieveclimategoals.Continuousvariationsinenergymarkets,technologicaladvancements,costs,emissions,andconsumerpreferencesresultinanever-changingmineraldemandlandscape.

Althoughoutsidethescopeofthisreport,therearesignificantrisksonthesupplysidetotheseprojections.Whilemostmodelsdonotanticipatescarcityanddepletionofmineralresources,factorssuchasgeopolitics,decades-longdevelopmenttimelinesfornewmines,highcapital

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requirements,increasingESGpressures,anddecliningorequalityindicateahighriskforperiodsofdemandexceedingsupply.

Whileprojectionsoffuturecriticalmineralsdemandrequirementsarenecessarytounderstandthescaleofthechallengeamineral-drivenenergytransitionpresents,itisequallynecessarytounderstandthevastamountofuncertaintythatisinherentinsuchprojections.Thereportssurveyedforthisreportshouldbeconsideredthefirstgenerationoftheirkind.Improveddatacollectionandincreasedcollaborationbetweentheenergymodelingcommunityandthemetalsandminingcommunitywillyieldbetter,standardized,andmorecomprehensiveoutlooksinthefuture.

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References

.Bain,J.(2021).GridParity:TheArtofFinancingRenewableEnergyProjectsintheU.S.Springer.

.Bingoto,P.,Foucart,M.,Gusakova,M.,Hundertmark,T.,&VanHoey,M.(2021).Thefutureofcriticalmineralsinthenet-zerotransition.McKinsey&Company.

.Dominish,E.,Florin,N.,&Teske,S.(2019).ResponsibleMineralsSourcingforRenewableEnergy.ReportpreparedforEarthworksbytheInstituteforSustainableFutures,UniversityofTechnologySydney.

.EnergyTransitionsCommission.(2023).MaterialandResourceRequirementsfortheEnergyTransition.

.GermanMineralResourcesAgency(DERA).(2021).Rawmaterialsforemergingtechnologies2021.CommissionedbytheFederalInstituteforGeosciencesandNaturalResources(BGR),Berlin.

.Gielen,D.(2021).Criticalmineralsfortheenergytransition.InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency,AbuDhabi.

.InternationalEnergyAgency(2021).TheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitions.InternationalEnergyAgency.

.InternationalEnergyAgency(2023).CriticalMineralsMarketReview2023.International

EnergyAgency.

.InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(2023).Geopoliticsoftheenergytransition:Criticalmaterials.InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency,AbuDhabi.

.InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(2023).WorldEnergyTransitionsOutlook2023:

1.5°CPathway,Volume1.InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency,AbuDhabi.

.KULeuven.(2022).MetalsforCleanEnergy.MetalsCleanEnergy.

.WorldBank(2020).MineralsforClimateAction:TheMineralIntensityoftheCleanEnergyTransition.WorldBank.

.UnitedStatesGeologicSurvey,USGS(2023).MineralCommoditySummaries,variousmetals.

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Appendix:BackgroundsofSurveyedReports

.IRENA(2021;2023),broadlydiscusshowinnovationwillaffectdemandforcriticalmaterialsandtheneedforacomprehensivepolicyframeworkthatnotonlytransformsenergysystemsbutalsoprotectspeople,livelihoods,andjobs.IRENA(2023),uniquelyhighlightsthegeopoliticalaspectsofcriticalminerals,includingtheconcentrationofproductioninafewcountriesandthepotentialforsupplydisruptionsduetotradetensionsorotherfactors.AllthreereportsfromIRENAdepictstrategiestomitigatecriticalmaterialsdependencies,includingrecycling,substitution,anddiversificationofsupplysources.

.IEAreports(2022;2023)highlighttheimportanceofcriticalmineralsforthetransitiontoalow-carbonenergysystemandidentifypotentialrisksandchallengesassociatedwiththeirsupplyanddemand.IEAprovidessomeofthemoredetailedanalysisanddeepdivesintothekeymineraldemandandsupplyprojections.Also,thesereportsprovideacomprehensiveoverviewofthecurrentstateofcriticalmineralsinvestmentsandmarkettrends,andtheyresponddirectlytotherequestsintheG7Five-PointPlanforcriticalmineralssecurity.

.WorldBank(2020)MineralsforClimatereportexaminesthepotentialfordifferentcountriesandregionstodeveloptheirowncriticalmineralresourcesandsupplychains,andthepotentialimplicationsforglobaltradeandgeopolitics.Thepaperisuniqueinitscomprehensiveanalysisofthemineralintensityofthecleanenergytransition,itsdetailedexaminationofthepotentialenvironmentalandsocialimpactsofcriticalmineralproductionanddisposal,anditsglobalperspectiveontheimplicationsofthecleanenergytransitionformineralmarkets,trade,andgeopolitics.

.UniversityofTechnologySydney:InstituteforSustainableFutures,ISF(2019),offersforecastsregardingthefutureneedformetals,whicharedesignedbasedonanaggressiverenewableenergysituation.Thestudyevaluatesthesupplyuncertaintiesconnectedwiththecentralizedproductionandreserves,thepercentageofrenewableenergyinend-use,andthecriticalnatureofthesupplychain.Moreover,thereportcriticallyexaminestheidentifiedimpactsofminingontheenvironment,health,andhumanrights.

.McKinsey&Company(2021)emphasizestheimportanceofsustainabilityinthetransitiontoanet-zeroemissionseconomyandhowtheindustryshouldcomplywithorexceedtheenvironmental,social,andgovernancestandards.Thepaperprovidesrecommendationsforpolicymakersandindustryleaderstoensureasecureandsustainablesupplyofcriticalminerals.Theauthorsproposestrategiesforincreasingthe

productionofcriticalminerals,improvingtherecyclingandreuseofthesematerials,and reducingtheenvironmentalandsocialimpactsofminingandprocessingthesematerials..GermanMi