国际能源署-2023年全球天然气安全审查（英）

Global

Gas

SecurityReview

2023IncludingtheGasMarketReport,Q3-2023INTERNATIONAL

ENERGY

AGENCYThe

IEA

examines

the

full

spectrum

of

energyissues

including

oil,

gas

and

coal

supply

anddemand,

renewable

energy

technologies,electricity

markets,

energy

efficiency,

access

toenergy,

demand

side

management

and

muchmore.

Through

its

work,

the

IEA

advocatespolicies

that

willenhance

the

reliability,affordability

and

sustainability

of

energy

inits

31member

countries,

11

association

countries

andbeyond.IEA

member

countries:AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech

RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublicof

TürkiyeUnited

KingdomUnited

StatesTheEuropeanCommissionalsoparticipatesintheworkoftheIEAGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyThispublicationandanymapincludedherein

arewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.IEA

association

countries:ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptJapanKoreaIndiaIndonesiaKenyaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew

ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak

RepublicMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouthAfricaThailandUkraineSource:

IEA.International

Energy

AgencyWebsite:

AbstractGlobalGasSecurityReview2023IncludingtheGasMarket

Report,Q3-2023AbstractRussia’sinvasionof

Ukrainein2022triggeredthefirsttrulyglobalgascrisis,withnaturalgasandLNG

marketscontendingwithsupplydisruptionsandunprecedentedpricevolatility.Whiletheimmediateeffectsof

last

year'ssupplyshockhaveeasedinrecentmonths,thestructuralchangesthatemergedin

2022willpersist

foryears–andshouldbetakenintoaccountbothbypolicymakersandmarketplayers.TheGlobal

Gas

Security

Review

hasprovided

athoroughassessmentof

theevolutionof

gassupplysecurityandLNGcontractingtrendseach

yearsinceitsfirstpublicationin2016.Thisyear’seditionincludesthelatest

insightsof

theIEA’squarterlyGasMarket

Report,aswellasaspecialspotlighton

naturalgasstorageandevolvingregulatory

frameworks,takingintoaccount

theincreasedneedforsupplyflexibility.Inthiscontext,thearchitectureof

globalgassupplysecurity

andtheunderlyingflexibilityof

themarketneedtobecarefullyreassessedthroughanever-closer

dialoguebetweenresponsibleproducersandconsumers.Ensuringsecuresuppliesof

LNG,inparticular,

willrequirepolicymakers,inclosecoordinationwithprivateactors,tofacilitatethedevelopmentof

innovativecommercialofferings,novelprocurement

mechanismsandnewco-operativeframeworks.Beyondthegrowingcomplexityof

gassupplysecuritybothintheshort

andlongterm,thedecarbonisationof

gas

andthebroaderenergysystemwillrequirethedeployment

andscalingupof

low-emissiongases.PartoftheIEA’sLow-Emission

GasesWorkProgramme,thisyear’sReviewincludesaspecialsectiononthistopic,

withafocusonthestorageof

low-emissionsgases

andthefutureroleof

liquefiedlow-emissionsgasesintheinternationalmaritimesector.SinceitsestablishmentinOctober2022,

theInternationalEnergyAgency’s(IEA)TaskForceonGasandCleanFuelsMarketMonitoringandSupplyandSecurityhasprovidedkeymarketupdatesandaplatformfortheeffectiveexchangeof

dataandinformationamongmembers.TheTaskForce

hasworkedcloselywiththegovernment

of

Japanaheadof

the12th

LNG

Producer-ConsumerConference

on18July2023,co-organisedbytheIEAandJapan’sMinistryof

Economy,TradeandIndustry

(METI).PAGE|

3TableofcontentsGlobalGasSecurityReview2023IncludingtheGasMarket

Report,Q3-2023Table

of

contentsExecutive

Summary

-

Towards

a

New

Global

Gas

Market.......................7Europeangasdemanddroppedbyover10%in

thefirsthalf

of

2023

.

27Anewglobalgasmarketis

takingshapein

theaftermathofthe2022supplyshock

...........................................................................................8Lowergasburnin

OECD

Europe’spowersectorwasthemaindriverbehindreducedgas

demandin

Q22023

.............................................28NaturalgasmarketsmovedtowardsagradualrebalancinginH1

20239Asiangasdemandisexpectedto

recoverby3%

in

2023,supportedbylower

prices

..........................................................................................29Demandreductionsplayed

akeyrolein

thesofteningof

marketfundamentals

........................................................................................10ChinaandemergingAsiareturnedtodemandgrowthin

thefirsthalfof2023......................................................................................................31SoftermarketconditionsinH12023areno

reasonfor

complacencyaheadof

winter

.....................................................................................11USnaturalgasproductioncontinuestoexpandin

2023,principallydrivenby

highergasoutput

fromshale

plays.......................................32Risksanduncertaintiesremainaheadof

the2023/24northernhemispherewinter.................................................................................12USnaturalgasproductionrose

toabovethe100

bcf/dmarkin

thefirsthalf

of

2023...........................................................................................33Fullstoragesitesare

no

guaranteeagainstwintervolatilityandtheriskofrenewedmarket

tensions..................................................................13Anewbaseload:LNGaccountedforcloseto40%

of

Europe’sgasconsumptionin

H12023.......................................................................34The2022gassupplyshock

transformednaturalgasmarketsinastructuralmanner..................................................................................14LNGcontinuedto

substituteRussianpipedgasin

Europe’ssupplymixinH1

2023

............................................................................................35LNGbecameanewbaseloadsupplyfortheEuropeanmarket...........15GlobalLNGtradegrewby

3%in

firsthalfof

2023,primarilysupportedbytheUnitedStates

.............................................................................36China’sactivecontractingstrategyissettoreinforceits

positionin

LNGtradingandfutureoptimisationofglobalLNGflows.............................18TheUnitedStates

isexpectedtobecometheworld’slargestLNGsupplier

in2023

....................................................................................39Gas

market

update

and

short-term

forecast

...........................................19Globalgasdemandis

expectedtoremainbroadlyflatin

2023beforereturningto

moderategrowthin

2024...................................................20GlobalLNGmarket

growthisexpectedtomoderateto4%in

2024

....

40Asianspot

LNGandEuropeanhub

pricesfelltoatwo-yearlow

in

Q22023......................................................................................................41TheAsiaPacificregionisexpectedto

accountfor

over80%of

demandgrowthin

2023-2024.............................................................................21Asianspot

LNGprices

areexpectedtotradeaboveTTFduringthesecondhalfof2023

..............................................................................42NorthAmericannaturalgasdemandisexpectedto

declinein

2023andremainflatin

2024

................................................................................22Gasstoragelevelsremainedwellabovetheirhistoricaveragein

Q22023......................................................................................................43USgasconsumptionfell

by

over0.5%

in

H12023amidanunseasonablymildwinterandsubduedeconomicactivity...................23EUandUS

storagesitesclosedQ22023with77%and

64%

filllevels,respectively...........................................................................................44Healthyhydroavailabilityweighson

naturalgasdemandin

CentralandSouthAmerica

......................................................................................24LNG

contracting

and

flexibility

update....................................................45Lowergasconsumptionin

ArgentinaandBrazildepressedgasdemandinCentralandSouthAmericainQ12023............................................25Updateon

LNGcontractingtrends.......................................................46PAGE|

4GlobalGasSecurityReview2023TableofcontentsIncludingtheGasMarket

Report,Q3-2023FlexibleLNGplayedakey

rolein

maintaininggassupplysecurityinEuropein

2022......................................................................................47Spotlight

on

natural

gas

storage.............................................................64The2022gassupplyshock

put

naturalgasstoragein

thespotlight

...

65Closeto

90

bcm/yrof

LNG

liquefactioncapacitysanctionedsinceRussia’s

invasionof

Ukraine.................................................................48KeynaturalgasstoragepoliciesandregulationsinitiatedsinceFebruary2022

......................................................................................66TheUnitedStates

aloneaccountedfor90%of

theLNGFIDssanctionedin

2022-H12023.................................................................49GlobalnaturalgasandLNGstoragecapacity

issettoexpandby10%inthenextfiveyears.............................................................................67NorthAmericaremainedthe

largestsourceof

newLNGexportcontractsin

2022...................................................................................50Chinaaloneis

expectedtoaccountforhalfof

UGScapacityadditionsby2028.................................................................................................68PortfolioplayersandAsian

buyerscontinuetoleadLNGcontractingactivityon

theimportside

.....................................................................52TheEuropeanUnionand

itsmemberstates

introducedmandatoryfilltargetsin

2022......................................................................................69Long-termagreementscontinuetodominatethecontractinglandscape.....................................................................53TheEU’snewstorageregulationsetsaUGSfilltargetlevelof

90%

by1November..........................................................................................70Destination-flexiblecontractsaccountedforhalfofthevolumescontractedin

2022

................................................................................54JapanissettointroducetheStrategicBufferLNGaheadof

the2023/24winterseason

.........................................................................71Portfolioplayers:Keyenablersofmarket

flexibilityandliquidity..........55TheStrategicBuffer

LNGprovidesanew

LNGsecurity

frameworkwithcloseco-operationfrom

theprivatesector...........................................72Portfolioplayers’net

openposition

issetto

widenfurtheroverthemediumterm.........................................................................................56AustraliaimplementedtheEastCoastGasSystemFrameworkin

May2023......................................................................................................73LNGportfolioplayers’contractualpositionandcontractedratio,2018-2026......................................................................................................56Storageisakeycontributortosupplyflexibilityduringthesouthernhemispherewinter

................................................................................74Contractedvolumes

aresettoincreasemarginallyover

themediumterm.......................................................................................................57Annex:Naturalgasstoragecapacityandregulatoryframeworksinselectedmarkets*.................................................................................75NorthAmericaissettobecometheworld’slargestsourceofactiveLNGexportcontracts............................................................................58System

integration

of

low-emission

gases.............................................80Destination-flexiblecontractsand

uncontractedcapacityexpandoverthemediumterm...................................................................................59Low-emissiongases

play

akeyroleinthepathwaystonetzeroemissionsby2050................................................................................81Contractexpirycreatesnew

marketingopportunitiesin

themediumterm.......................................................................................................60Low-emissiongases

naturallyleadtoamorecomplex

gassystem

....82Undergroundstorageplaysacriticalroleinunleashingbiomethane’sfullpotential

..........................................................................................83Around150bcm

of

LNGcontractsaresetto

expireby

2026

andover250

bcmby2030

..................................................................................61Biomethaneproductionplantsdisplaylimitedshort-termvariabilityandseasonality............................................................................................84Ontheexportside,NorthAmericaisdrivinggrowthin

thenumberofgas-to-gasindexedcontracts................................................................62Thefirstopenseasonsfor

hydrogenstoragewerelaunchedin

Europein2023..................................................................................................85Oil-linkedpricingremainsdominant

in

importcontracts.......................63PAGE|

5GlobalGasSecurityReview2023TableofcontentsIncludingtheGasMarket

Report,Q3-2023Europeanhydrogenstoragedevelopmentwill

requirestakeholderstomakeconcentratedefforts

....................................................................86Liquefiedlow-emissiongasesareexpectedto

be

centraltodecarbonisingthemaritimesector........................................................87Annex

..........................................................................................................92Summarytable......................................................................................93Regionalandcountrygroupings...........................................................94Abbreviationsandacronyms

................................................................95Unitsof

measure...................................................................................96Acknowledgements,contributorsand

credits

.......................................97PAGE|

6GlobalGasSecurityReview2023Executivesummary–TowardsaNewGlobalGasMarketIncludingtheGasMarket

Report,Q3-2023Executive

summary

–

Towards

a

New

Global

Gas

MarketPAGE|

7GlobalGasSecurityReview2023Executivesummary–TowardsaNewGlobalGasMarketIncludingtheGasMarket

Report,Q3-2023A

new

global

gas

market

is

taking

shape

in

the

aftermath

of

the

2022

supply

shockTheglobal

energy

crisis

triggeredbyRussia’sinvasionof

Ukrainetransformed

natural

gas

markets

in

a

structural

manner

withprofoundimplicationsbothforpolicymakersandmarketplayers.LNG

becameanewbaseloadsupplyforEurope,whileChina’sbalancingroleintheglobalgasmarketis

set

to

increase.

Inthiscontext,

thearchitecture

of

global

gas

supply

security

andtheunderlyingflexibilitymechanismsneedtobereassessedthroughanever-closerdialoguebetweenresponsibleproducersandconsumers.themedium

term,afinebalanceshouldbestruckbetweenlong-termcontractsfromnon-Russiansuppliersand

exposuretoanincreasinglyliquidspotmarket.Ourreview

of

LNG

contractingtrends

indicatesthatEuropeanbuyershaveincreasedtheirLNGcontractingactivitysinceRussia’sinvasionof

Ukraine,thoughtheystillaccount

forjust20%of

totalLNG

volumescontractedsincethestartof

2022–

whileChina’ssharetopped25%.Consideringthatinanincreasinglyglobalisedgasmarket,storageregulationscanhaveextra-regionalimplications,theInternationalEnergyAgencycarriedout

asurveyonnatural

gasstorageanditsevolvingregulatoryframeworksacrossthemembersof

theInternationalEnergyAgency'sTaskForceonGas

andCleanFuelsMarketMonitoringandSupplyandSecurity.Itshowedthatinthewakeof

theglobalgascrisistriggeredbyRussia,more

stringentstorage

regulations

havebeenadoptedacross

keymarkets.Globalgassupplysecurityremainsat

theforefront

of

energypolicymaking,

withgrowingcomplexitybothintheshort-andlongterm.Whilemarketfundamentalshavesignificantlyeasedsincethestartof

2023,

andtheEuropeanUnionis

wellontrackto

fillupitsstoragesitesto95%of

workingcapacity,full

storage

sites

are

noguarantee

against

winter

volatility.Oursimulationsshowthatacoldwinter,

togetherwithafullhalt

of

RussianpipedgassuppliestotheEuropeanUnionstartingfrom1

October2023,

couldeasilyrenewpricevolatilityandmarkettensions.Theintegration

of

low-emission

gases

intothegasandbroaderenergysystemwillbecrucialtodecarbonisegassupplystreams.Thisyear’sGlobal

Gas

Security

Review

providesaspecialfocusonthestorageof

low-emissiongasesandthefutureroleof

liquefiedlow-emissiongasesintheinternationalmaritimesector.The

growing

flexibility

and

liquidity

of

the

global

LNG

marketwas

crucial

in

the

response

to

the

gas

supply

shock

of

2022.Thenon-observanceof

RussianpipedgascontractsincreasedtheEuropeanUnion’srelianceonspot

procurements,whichrosefromjust20%oftotalgassupplyin2021toover50%in2023.

ThroughPAGE|

8GlobalGasSecurityReview2023Executivesummary–TowardsaNewGlobalGasMarketIncludingtheGasMarket

Report,Q3-2023Natural

gas

markets

moved

towards

a

gradual

rebalancing

in

H1

2023Russia’s

steep

cuts

in

gas

deliveries

to

theEuropeUnion–adropof

almost

80bcm,equatingto15%of

globalLNG

trade

–

putunprecedented

pressure

onEuropeanandglobalgasmarketsin2022.

ThisgassupplyshockcausedbyRussialedtoanon-Russianpipelinesuppliersfacedheavymaintenanceandunplannedoutages,

furthertighteningsupply.Inthiscontext,natural

gas

demand

reductions

played

a

key

rolein

the

softening

of

market

fundamentals.In

OECD

Europe,naturalgasdemandfell

byanestimated10%,

orover

30bcm.ThiswasprimarilydrivenbylowerresidentialandcommercialdemandinQ1,asharpdropingas

useinthepowersector

duringQ2anddepressedgasconsumptionbyindustrialconsumers.InkeyAsianmarkets,naturalgasdemandremainedclosetolast

year’slevelsinthefirstfivemonthsof

2023.

WhileChinareturnedtogrowth,

thesegainswerealmostentirelyoffsetbydemanddropsinJapanandKorea,

reflectingamild

Q1andimprovingnuclearavailability.RelativelymuteddemandinAsiahasbeenakeycontributortothelooseningof

marketfundamentalssincethestartof

2023.reconfigurationof

global

LNG

flows,

drovenaturalgaspricestoall-timehighs,

bothinAsia

andEurope,andnecessitatedareadjustmentingasdemand.Naturalgasconsumptionfellbyanestimated1.5%in2022

–similartothedropexperiencedin2020followingthefirstwaveof

Covid-19lockdowns.Since

the

start

of

2023,

natural

gas

markets

moved

towards

agradual

rebalancing

duetotimelypolicyaction,efficient

marketforcesandfavourableweatherconditionsoverthe2022/23heatingseason.

Spot

gasprices

inAsiaandEuropefellbyover

50%year-on-yearinH12023,albeit

remaining140%

and

180%abovetheirH1averagelevelsbetween2016-20,

respectively.IntheUnitedStates,stronggrowthin

domesticgasproduction,togetherwithanunseasonablymildQ12023,

put

downwardpressureonbenchmarkHenryHubprices,

whichfellby60%year-on-yearinH12023.Global

gas

demand

is

expected

to

remain

broadly

flat

in

2023and

return

to

moderate

growth

of

2%

in

2024,supportedbytheexpansionof

economic

activityandassuminga

returntoaveragewinterweatherconditionsintheNorthernHemisphere.TherapidlygrowingmarketsintheAsia

Pacificregionareexpectedtoaccountforaround80%of

incrementalgasdemandtotheendof

2024.Thisshort-termforecastis

subject

toanunusually

wide

range

ofuncertainties

stemmingfromthebroadergeopoliticalandmacroeconomicenvironment.The

steep

decline

in

natural

gas

prices

in

Asia

and

Europeoccurred

despite

a

tight

supply

environment.

Russia’spipedgasdeliveriestotheEuropeanUnionfellbyover75%(or36

bcm)inH12023,

whileglobalLNG

supplyrosebyanestimated3%(or9bcm)–insufficient

tooffsetthedeclineinRussianpipedsupplies.

SeveralPAGE|

9GlobalGasSecurityReview2023Executivesummary–TowardsaNewGlobalGasMarketIncludingtheGasMarket

Report,Q3-2023Demand

reductions

played

a

key

role

in

the

softening

of

market

fundamentalsYear-on-yearchangein

naturalgassupplyanddemandin

keyAsianandEuropeanimportmarkets,H12023vsH1

2022NaturalgassupplyNaturalgasdemand*20100-10-20-30-40-50SupplyDemandGlobalLNGsupplyDomesticproductioninEuropeand

ChinaChina-RussianpipedimportsEurope-RussianpipedimportsIndiaJapan&KoreaOECDEuropeChina-non-RussianpipedimportsEurope-non

RussianpipedimportsTotaly-o-ychangeChinaTotaly-o-ychangeIEA.CCBY4.0.*Naturalgasdemandincludeschangein

netstorageinjectionsinQ2.Sources:IEA

analysisbasedon

ENTSOG(2023),

TransparencyPlatform;Eurostat(2023),Energy

Statistics;GasTransmissionSystem

Operator

ofUkraine(2023),TransparencyPlatform;GeneralAdministrationofCustomsofthePeople’s

RepublicofChina(2023),Major

Import

Commodities

in

Quantity

and

Value;ICIS(2023),ICIS

LNG

Edge;JODI(2023),Gas

World

Database;NBS(2023),Output

of

Natural

Gas;PPAC(2023),Gas

Consumption.PAGE|

10GlobalGasSecurityReview2023Executivesummary–TowardsaNewGlobalGasMarketIncludingtheGasMarket

Report,Q3-2023Softer

market

conditions

in

H1

2023

are

no

reason

for

complacency

ahead

of

winterHighnaturalgasinventorylevelsinkeyAsian

andEuropeanmarketsprovidecautious

optimism

aheadof

the2023/24heatingseasonintheNorthernHemisphere.However,

full

storage

sitesare

no

guarantee

against

winter

volatility

and

the

risk

ofrenewed

market

tensions.LNG

imports

couldfluctuate,withanuncertaintyrangeof

over10bcmthroughthe2023/24winter.Considering

these

risk

factors,

gas

storage

trajectories

couldvary

widely

over

the

upcoming

heating

season.

Oursimulationsshowthatacoldwinter,

togetherwithafullstopof

RussianpipedgassuppliestotheEuropeanUnionstartingfrom1October,

couldrenewmarkettensions.

IfweassumeamildwinterandLNG

flowsremainingclosetolast

year’slevels,

storagesiteswouldendtheheatingseasonwithinventorylevelsabove50%of

capacityevenwithout

Russianpipedgas.Incontrast,acoldwinterwouldputsubstantialpressureon

themarket.HigherLNG

flows

(a15%y-o-yincrease)wouldkeepstoragesites34%fullbytheendof

March.Yet

if

LNGflowsremain

at

2022/23winterlevels,storagesiteswouldbejust25%full.LowerLNG

availability(a10%y-o-ydecline)wouldfurtherdepressinventorylevelstobelow20%of

capacity.The

European

Union

inherited

relatively

high

storage

levelsafter

the

2022/23

heating

season,

withinventoriesstanding60%abovetheirfive-yearaverage.Ifinjectionscontinueat

theaveragerateobservedsincemid-April,EU

storage

sites

will

reach

90%

oftheir

working

capacity

by

early

August

andcouldbefilledcloseto100%bymid-September.

IfRussianpipedgassuppliesweretoceasecompletelyinsummer2023,

theEuropeanUnionwouldstillbeabletofillupstorage

sitesto90-95%of

workingcapacityonaveragebythestartof

the2023/24heatingseason.Nevertheless,

key

uncertainties

remain

ahead

of

Europe’s2023/24

winter

season.Acold

winter

couldincreasenaturalgasdemandintheEU’sresidentialandcommercialsectorsby30bcmcomparedtothe2022/23heatingseason.Givengeopoliticaluncertainties,

afurther

decline

in

Russian

piped

gas

deliveriestotheEuropeanUnion

cannot

beexcluded.

IfRussianpipedgassuppliesweretofullystopfrom1October2023,

it

wouldresult

inatotalshortfallof

10bcm.Global

LNG

supply

isexpectedtoincreasebyaround15

bcmy-o-y,thoughprojectdelaysand/orunplannedoutagescouldreduceincrementalLNGsupply.

China’sStoragesitesaretypicallylessreactivewhenfilledbelow30%oftheircapacity,aswithdrawalabilityis

reducedduetothedropinreservoirpressure.

This

couldincreasetheriskof

pricevolatilityandsupplydisruptionsinthecaseof