ITIF-创新放大器：在温室气体减排方面取得更多成功（英）

Innovation

Amplifiers:

Getting

More

Bangfor

the

Buck

on

GHG

ReductionsED

RIGHTOR

|JULY

2023ThepaceofGHG

reductionsneeds

togreatlyaccelerate.Recentinvestmentsareagreatstartbutarenotsufficient.Weneedtoamplifythecurrentinvestmentstoachievecleanenergyas

thenormandimprovecompetitiveness.KEY

TAKEAWAYS.....ThepaceofglobalGHGreductionsisfarfrom

what’sneededtostabilizetheclimate.Emissionsaregoingupincontrasttoprojectionsandcommitments

thatthey’dbegoingdown.Thetax

incentivesin

the

recentIRAlegislationwill

expandclean

energygeneration,distribution,andusebutareinsufficienttodrivethe

RD&Dneededtodecreasethe

costsoflow-carbontechnologies,supportinfrastructure,andimplementsolutions.Forthe

currentportfolioofinvestments,DOEand

otheragenciesneed

tocapturesignificantly

morevaluefromtheresourcestheycommitby

adopting

knowledgeandapplicationamplifierswithgoal-directedresearch.DOEshoulddevelophigh

leveragecapabilities(e.g.,electrochemistry,

composites,energystorage);pursuescience

andengineeringto

addresscrosscuttingconstraints;andrallydiversecollaboratornetworksfocused

onaudaciousgoals.DOEalsoshouldencouragespilloversintoadjacentorunseenapplicationsandmarkets;increaseoutreachandtransparencyto

engageecosystemsof

collaborators;andusetheinvestmentsinhydrogen

andCCUShubstoutilizearangeof

amplifiers.CONTENTSKeyTakeaways

1ExecutiveSummary

2Introduction

3WhatIsanAmplifier?

4ImprovedClarityandFewerConstraints

4KnowledgeSpillovers

5ApplicationSpillovers

5ClearSolutionPaths

5StrategicUseof

Resources

6IntersectionalThinking

6SupportNetworks

6Goal-DirectedResearch

7HowCanWeFosterAmplifiers?

7HowAreDOE,DOD,andOtherAgenciesUsingAmplifiers?

9HowCouldAmplifiersMaximize

the

Impactof

RecentFunding?

11ConclusionsandRecommendations

13Endnotes

15EXECUTIVE

SUMMARYTheworld

isbehind

thecurveinaddressingclimatechange.

Weneed

toamplifytheimpactofglobalgreenhousegas(GHG)reduction

initiatives.DespiterecenthistoricUnitedStatesinvestmentstospurcleanenergy

technologies,we

simply

can’treduceGHGsfastenoughwiththelimitedresourcescommittedglobally—andadditionalmassivefundingisunlikely.

WeneedbiggerandfasterGHGreductionsfromthe

fundsalreadycommitted.But

how?Pursuingamplifiersisan

underutilizedapproachthatcouldcascadeGHGreductionsin

multipleareas

simultaneously.

Amplifiersleverage

resourcesandknowledgetogreatlyincrease

impact,removeconstraints,or

expandapplications.Theyspurcreativethinking

thatleadsto

innovativesolutions

to

toughproblems.Amplifierssuchas

spilloversincreasetheimpactof

innovations.Forexample,

lithium-ionbatteriesdeveloped

for

smallconsumerelectronicsaremakinganevenlargerimpactpoweringelectricvehiclesand

stationarybatteries.Lookingahead,innovationsincorecapabilitiessuchaselectrochemistrycouldamplifyGHGreductions

in

batteries,hydrogenfuelcells,andwaterelectrolyzers,and

converting

carbondioxide(CO

)

into

value-added2products.Likeincreasingthepowerofamplifiersataconcert,weneed

to“crankit

up”intermsof

GHGreductions.TheDepartmentofEnergy

(DOE)and

researchpartnerscan

getmorebangforthebuckfromrecentinvestmentsbypursuingamplifiersin

“EnergyEarthshots.”1

DOEshouldINFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATION

|

JULY2023PAGE2engagediverseinnovatornetworksacrossmultiple

partners

todevelopand

applyexpertise

withhighleveragepotential(e.g.,electrochemistry,composite

materials,separations,energystorage).MakingbigGHGreductionsfastisvital.Usingamplifierstodeliverthosebiggerreductionsfasterwillbe

crucialto

achievingaudaciousGHGreductionand

sustainabilitygoals.INTRODUCTIONSocietyiswaybehindthepacewhenit

comestoGHGreductionsneededto

avoid

theworstimpactsof

climatechange.2

Recentinvestmentsprovideastartfor

the

transformation

requiredbutare

farfromthe

level

currentlyneeded.Onewaytoachievefargreaterimpactfromthelimitedresourcesavailable—get“morebang

forthebuck”—isbyidentifyingandpursuingamplifiersto

increase

leverageand

marketpull.Thescaleofthetransformationneededacrossenergysystems,manufacturing,buildings,transportation,supplychains,and

thewaythatpeopleuse

energyiscolossal.Theresourcescommitted

tothisradicalchangein

averycompressedtimewindowarelimitedconsideringthescale

ofthechange

needed.This

isaglobalproblem,and

thelevelofglobalinvestmentneededwillbe

enormous,butthe

consequencesofnotmakingthetransformationareunthinkable.Estimatesof

the

globalinvestmentneededareabove$130trillionthrough

2050.3

Between2021and2025,$2.6trillionperyearis

needed—andthisincreasesbeyond2025to$4.5trillion/year.Bycomparison,the$35billionauthorized

forcleanenergytechnologyis

merelyablip.4

Andprospectsforadditionalfundingin

the

nextfewyearsaredim,so

makingthemostofthelimitedfundsis

vital.Gettingmorebangforthebuckmatters,

astheinnovationsneededto

enablethe

technologicalchangeareenormousandlow-carbon

technologiesneedto

gettoprice

and

performanceparitywithincumbentsolutionsfast.6Thiswillrequire

largeanddurableresearch,

development,anddemonstration(RD&D)investmentsas

adoptionfacesdisplacingwell-entrenched,less-expensivetechnologiesandprocesses.Sectorssuchas

industry,aviation,and

marineareveryheterogeneous,whileintegration(e.g.,complex

linkagesbetweeninputsand

outputs)and

risksfor

implementationarehigh.Theneedsforinnovation

toachievenet-zeroemissionsareprofound.Nearlyhalf

thetechnologiesneededto

reachnetzeroby2050arestillinprototypeor

demonstration

stage.5

Sectorssuch

asindustry,aviation,andmarine

areevenmoredependentonemergenttechnologies.Acceleratedadoptionwillrequiredemonstrationsinmultipleconfigurations,

applications,andregionalcontexts,so

innovation

in

implementationis

importanttoo.Thelow-carbonapproachesfortransitioningenergyusesuch

asrenewable

hydrogen,

convertingCO

intousefulproducts,

electrifying

manufacturingprocesses,

andmitigatingremaining2emissionsfrom

hard-to-abateprocessesbycarbon

captureutilizationandstorage(CCUS)aresignificantlymoreexpensivethanincumbentsolutions.Thatpricegapwillleadtoslowadoption,whichmeansit’sessentialto

reachpriceparitywhiledeliveringthesameperformance.6

There’sacriticalneedtoamplifyoureffortsgivenlimited

resources,a

shorttimewindow,and

myriadadoptionchallenges.INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATION

|

JULY2023PAGE3Thisreportexploreshow

toidentifyand

pursueamplifiersto

accelerateGHGreductions,highlightingpolicyenablersandwaysagenciescanexpandthe

impactoffundsprovidedbytheInflationReductionAct

(IRA)andBipartisan

InfrastructureLaw(BIL).WHAT

IS

AN

AMPLIFIER?Amplifiersare

approachestoprogrammanagementthatleverageresourcesandknowledgetogreatly

increase

the

impactofinputs,removeconstraints,

orexpanda

range

ofapplications.InthecontextofGHGreductions,anamplifiergreatlyexpands

themagnitudeofemissionsreductions

forthe

resourcesavailable.Figure1showstheseveralcategoriesofamplifiers,followedbyillustrativeexamplesforeach.Butas

therearemanywaysamplifierscanbecreativelyapplied,thislistisnotmeanttobeexhaustive.Figure

1:

Categories

of

amplifiersImprovedClarity,FewerConstraintsSupportNetworksKnowledgeSpilloversGoal-DirectedResearchIntersectionalThinkingClear

SolutionPathwaysStrategicResourcesImproved

Clarity

and

Fewer

ConstraintsTherearemultipleways

inwhichremovalof

constraints(capital,risk,

technicalissues,etc.)andimproved

claritycan

yieldamplified

impact.

Operation

WarpSpeed

(OWS)intheUnitedStateswassuccessful

in

removingRD&Dandregulatoryrisk

toaccelerateCOVID-19vaccinedevelopment.7

RD&Doftenhasassociatedrisksregardingwhetherofferingswillmeettheneedsofcustomersandif

they’llpurchasetheproductdeveloped.Thegovernmentlargelyeliminatedthose

risksbyguaranteeingthepurchaseof

thevaccinesandprovidingfinancingregardlessofregulatoryapproval.Normalregulatoryprocessesfor

medicalproductscan

takeyears—acloudofINFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATION

|

JULY2023PAGE4uncertaintyforproductdevelopers’approvaltimingandapplicationconstraints.Thegovernmentminimized

theserisksbyfast-trackingapprovalforthevaccinesandaidedcontractinganddistribution,furtherminimizing

risks.

Multipleagenciesandprivatesectorcompaniespartneredtospeeddevelopmentanddeploymentwhileeffectivelyaddressinghurdles.TheDefenseAdvancedResearchProjectsAgency(DARPA)playedanearlyroleby

seeingthepotentialforthe

mRNAtechnologyforvaccines,supportingdevelopment,buildingnetworks

ofresearchers,and

lowering

technicalrisks—startingeightyearsbefore

thepandemic.8

DARPAhasahistory

ofpioneeringinnovationsthathavebeen

pickedupby

markets.ExamplesincludetheInternet,

miniaturizedglobalpositioningsystem(GPS)devices,unmanned

aerialvehicles(drones),and

flatscreen

displays.9Knowledge

SpilloversSpilloversincreasetherateoflearning

andapplication

inareasthatwerenot

the

originaltargetofinnovationactivity.10

Knowledgespilloversincorporate

newprinciplesintootherapplicationsincreasingthe

rateofinnovationin

thenewarea.

Oneexample,as

noted

is

theadoption

ofsemiconductormanufacturingprocesses

andleveragedsiliconproductionwithphotovoltaic(PV)cells.Thiscontributed

to

thedominanceofPVs(overcompetingthin

films)after2000withpolysiliconcostsdroppingto10percentthatofthe1975level.9Anotheraspectof

thesespilloversoccurswhenresearcherspursueinnovationsinunfamiliarfields

inwhichtheycandevelopnewinsights.Theseinterloperscanbe

“cross-pollinators”thathelpdevelop

innovativeideas.11

Thediversityinthinkingat

theintersection

offields,culture,andexperiencescan

yielduniqueperspectives.Forexample,

theemergencyroom(ER)

staffat

ahospital

whowere

seekinginnovative,nontraditionalmethodstominimize

mistakesobservedcarracingpitcrewsunderpressure—notERsat

otherhospitals.12Application

SpilloversApplicationspilloversinvolveatechnologydevelopedfor

oneapplicationbeingpickedupbyanotherapplication

oradjacentmarket.Forexample,gas

turbines

originallydevelopedandapplied

forjetengineswerelateradaptedfornaturalgasturbines.13

Spilloverscanshareacommonscientificbase,manufacturing

techniques,andoperationskills.ThemultitudeofapplicationspilloversfromtheNASA

moonshotsareprime

examples.14

Theincreased

impactsandacceleratedspeedfrom

spilloverswerealsoimportantforthe

rapidpreparationofmaterialsforWorld

War

II,wheretheyenabledcollaborationtoturnfailuresintosuccessesinotherapplicationsand

acceleratedprogressin

the

faceof

scarceinputs.15Clear

Solution

PathsAmplifierscanalsorevealnewknowledgethatallowsfor

aclearerpath

tosolutions.ThedevelopmentofvaccinesbyOWSenabledthemappingofsupplychainsfortherapidmanufacture,transportation,anddeploymentof

vaccines.Thismappingwasakeypartoftherapid

responsetothepandemic,as

it

identifiedvulnerabilitiesandwasused

alongwithmanufacturing

forecastingandinvestingtoclosegapsbefore

theyarose.7

ThisalsouncoveredthatPfizerknew

itssupplychain,as

didSanofi,but

knowledgeoftheentiresupply

chainneededfor

manufactureanddistributionwasunknown.Thisisanexampleof

findingclarityonhow

toutilizeacomplexproductionanddeliveryprocess

more

effectivelyfromend

toend.INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATION

|

JULY2023PAGE5Therearealsoexampleswhereinnew

insightscan

come

frommore

clearlyseeinghowtoorchestratesolutionsincomplex,nonlinear,or

multivariatesystems.Analysesofpatentsassociatedwithcomplexareas

showthedisproportionatebenefitsofscienceuncoveringpreviouslyunrecognized

relationships.Sciencecan

helpinventorsboth

find

theirwaytounfamiliarplacesandconvinceothersthat

whattheyfound

isvaluable.16Strategic

Use

of

ResourcesGreaterimpactisrealizedwhenthevalueisleveragedacrossmultipleorganizations.Forexample,acompanywith

therightstobuildroads,

bridges,orcommunicationsnetworkscanoperatemoreefficientlyinmovingitsgoodsor

information.Thisimpact,however,canbefargreaterif

thetechnologyisshared

amongmultiplecompaniesconnectingmoreproducers,sellers,

andendconsumers.

Inanotherexample,systemsengineeringchallengeswerenotreadilydivisibleduringtechnologydevelopmentassociatedwith

WWII,

sothe

developmentofradarwasconcentrated

atthe

MassachusettsInstituteof

Technology.15

Conversely,paralleleffortswerefavoredforfissionandthedevelopmentof

penicillinandmedicinestoaddressmalaria.Intersectional

ThinkingFransJohannsen,inThe

MediciEffect,explained

thatincreasedcreativitycomeswhentalentedpeoplewithdifferent

backgroundsanddisciplinescollaborate,yielding

step-changeimprovements.11Creativitywillflourishwhenpeoplewithdiversebackground,cultures,educations,and

valuescollaborate.Attheseintersectionsof

thinking,new

approachesandbreakthroughscanoccur.

Peopleoutsideacertain

fieldofstudydon’thave

thesameassumptionsor

are

able

tochallenge

thosealreadypresent,and

ideascanbe

combinedinnewways.DARPApromotes

this

intersectionalityin

theteamstheybuild

andinteractionsthey

spuramongnetworks.TheAdvanced

ResearchProjectsAgency-Energy(ARPA-E)promotesit

at

theirinnovation

summitswheretechnologydevelopersfromall

overthe

globeworkingondiverseproblemshaveanopportunityto

interact.7

Successesfrom

theARPA-Eprogramincludewide-bandgapsemiconductorsandmobiledetectionfor

methane

leakdetection

among

the135companies,

morethan1,000patents,andover300licensesresultingfrom

supportedprograms.17Support

NetworksSupportnetworksenabletherapidexchangeof

knowledgeand

spurcreativitybetweenresearchersin

overlappingdisciplines,

encouragingcross-fertilizationand

innovation.

Whenthesenetworksare

focusedon

acommongoal,progresscanbeacceleratedby

thecommunityofcollaboratorsthatexpand

expertiseanddrivedurableprogress.Forexample,DARPAisknownforbuildingstrongnetworksofcollaboratorsthatfocus

onagoal,withthenetworkstappingabroad

range

ofexpertiseanddisciplines.7Thenetworkscanrangefromacademiato

emergingtechnologyfirmsthatlackexperienceasdefensecontractors.

Inanotherexample,theUnitedStatesgovernmentspurred

thedevelopmentofpublic-privatenetworksleadingtonumerousPV

inventions/innovationsinthe1970s.7

However,at

thesametime,asimilarfederalprogram

encouragingpublic-privatenetworksandinnovationecosystemstodrive

theapplicationof

technologywaslargely

absent,allowingGermany,

Japan,andSpaintohavetheupperhand

in

installationspercapita.INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATION

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JULY2023PAGE6Goal-Directed

ResearchCreative

innovationwillmake

thegreatestdifferenceinaddressingclimatestabilization,

ifdirected

toward

thatcause.Thisalignswithpriorlearnings.Goal-directed

researchwasvitaltotheUnitedStatesOfficeofScientificResearchandDevelopment(OSRD)developmentofinnovativesolutionstochallengesduringWWIIsuchasthe

ManhattanProject.12

Thatexperiencealsoshowedthe

tensionsbetweentheneeds

forveryrapid

innovationin

multipleareas,severetimeconstraints/urgency,

limitedresources,and

highcosts.Discoveringunusualcombinationsofideas

viaamplifiersmay

berelativelyinexpensive,butcommercializingthosebreakthroughsmayrequire

more

time

tofullydeploy,as

theseuniquesolutionsare

stillrelativelynewanduntested.TheHumanGenomeproject’ssuccesswithprivateRD&Ddirectedtowardasocietalgoalchangedthewaybiomedicalresearchisstructured.18

Theevolution

of“grand

challenges”providesadditionalsteeringforresearch.19

Thenotionofchallenge-basedresearchhasbeenpickedup

inEuropeto

createaresearchagendawithsocietyand

activeparticipantstakeholders.20HOW

CAN

WE

FOSTER

AMPLIFIERS?Thereareseveralroutestobolsteramplifiers.Projectsand

eventsthatgatherexpertsfromdifferentfieldsof

studyencourage

cross-fertilizationofideas,

learning,andcollaborationsthatleadtonewcombinations

ofapproachestosolutions.Gathering

innovators

in

multiple

fields

across

art,

sciences,

literature,

etc.

harkensback

totheMedicis,

awealthybankingandmerchantfamily

thatspurred

innovationin

16thcenturyFlorenceviathis

method.

Theresultingnexusof

intellectualthinkingcontributedtoEurope’srenaissance.21

Thecollisionofdifferentperspectives,lifeexperiences,andculturescan

lead

toexperimentationoutsidetheboundsofpreviousthoughtpatterns—whichsometimesareconstrainedbytheestablished“rules”of

afieldofpractice.Peoplethatconsiderproblemsinareas

thatarenewto

themdon’thavethebiasesandthereforedon’thavetounlearn“traditional”learning.Thisallowspeopleworking

attheseinterfacesto

spontaneouslyconnectdisparate

concepts,ideas,ingredients,approaches,etc.Diverse

networks,

collaborations,

and

partnerships

formwhenpeoplewithdivergentexperiencesandperspectivescome

together.Akey

tofosteringintersectionalthinking

is

togatherpeoplefromdifferentfieldsand

focus

theircreativethinkingonachallenge(e.g.,goal-directedRD&D).Peoplewhoarenaturallycuriousandinterestedin

topicsbeyond

theirexpertise

and

training—andasklotsofthought-provokingquestionsandenjoypursuingthem—are

goodcandidates.Thestrategyoffostering

networksis

centraltoDARPA,andit

intentionallybringstogetherarangeof

expertsfrommultipledisciplinesandfocusesthemon

achallenge.22

Thismodelisalsoemployed

intheNationalNetwork

forManufacturingInnovation(NNMI),wheretheinvolvementofnetworkstoaddresscrosscuttingopportunitiesisrecognized.23

Expansion

ofnetworkstoinclude

internationalpeersin

overlappingfieldscanspeedthetransferofknowledge,

identifyinnovation

gaps,and

avoidduplicationofefforts.

ExistingmultilateralprogramsincludetheInternationalEnergyAgency’s(IEA’s)technologycollaborationprograms,

Mission

Innovation,andtheCleanEnergyMinisterial.6INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATION

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JULY2023PAGE7Spurring

development

of

new

insights

in

complex

areas

is

anotherroute.Thiscanoccurinareasthatarewellcovered—wherenewapproaches,tools,or

re-examinationof

assumptionscan

yieldnewpaths

tosolutions.Or

it

canoccurinunexploredareas.Theimprovedabilityto

modelmyriadparametersquicklywith

emerging

artificialintelligence(AI),

machinelearning,quantumcomputing,etc.isexpectedtoprovidegreaterunderstanding

ofhow

tooptimizecomplexsystemsanddynamicallyadjusttochanging

marketneedsandopportunities.Understandinghow

toconnectmarketpushand

pullmechanisms,andhowtooptimize

interactionsacrosscomplexsupplychains,

presentsadditionalopportunitiesin

this

area.24

Expanding

accessto

informationorusingthe

voluminouslevelof

digitaldataavailableto

identifytrendsand

interpretthemformore

rapiddecision-makingfitshereaswell.Encouraging

new

approaches

and

business

models

isyetanotherapproach.Forexample,increasingthescaleof

productionaidstheabilityofcompaniestocompete.Thisleadstolargerandlargerfacilitiesin

centralized

locations.Thepandemic,however,exposed

severalsupplychaingapswiththatmodelandinherentvulnerabilitieswithjust-in-time-delivery.Aconverse

approachispursuingsmallermodularunits

closertocustomers(shortersupplychains)thatarenimblerandcanachievescaleby

stackingproductionfrom

identicalunits.Thosepursuingdistributedmanufacturing

toutthe

increased

opportunitiesfor

radicallydifferentbusinessmodelsinwhichdata-drivenopen

innovationprovidesgreaterflexibilityandtheabilitytocustomize,andmeetfastdeliveryrequirementsofcustomers.25Inspiring

the

development

of

deep

expertise

in

areas

with

broad

applicability

is

centraltoamplification.Thereare

multipleopportunitieswheresharedexpertisecouldbenefitcleanenergyinnovation.Forexample,

theareaofelectrochemistryiscentraltoinnovationinbatteries,electrolyzers(e.g.,generationof

renewable

hydrogen),fuelcells,and

many

othercleantechnologyapplications.9

Developmentofexpertiseinthisareaandencouragingexpertsto

movefromoneapplicationareatoanotherisawayto

encourage

innovation.Otherareaswhereexpertisecouldbecentralto

innovationscouldincludeenergystorage,separations,

lightweightmaterials,

quantumcomputing,AI,advanced

manufacturing/automation,

andbiotechnology.Supporting

early

markets

is

key.

It’schallengingfor

entrepreneurstocommercializeinventions.Encouragementin

targetedareas

ofmarketor

societalchallengescan

decreasethe

hurdlesandspeedinnovation.DARPAusesthisapproach

byservingasanearlymarketforinformationtechnology(IT)products.

Byencouraging“connectedRD&D,”DARPAprovidesnotonlyinsightsintocustomerneedsbutalsoconnectionsto

interestedpartieswillingto

trialconcepts.26

DARPAandtheDepartmentofDefense(DOD)werethe

firstadoptersofITadvancesforworkstations(SunMicrosystems,SiliconGraphics)andInternetforerunnersARPANETandMILNET.27

DARPAprovidedacriticalassisttothe

launchingof

Sunby

extending

fundstoacademicinstitutions,therebypermittingthem

toacquireworkstations.

Orders

fromDARPA-connectedacademicpartnersaccountedfor

80

percentoftheordersreceivedby

Sunin

itsfirstyearof

business.34DARPAreliedonitsconnectionsand

tiesto

largerinnovation

systemstonurture

internalandexternalmultilayerednetworkstospurinnovation

whileengagingadiverserangeof

researchersandendusers.28There’salsotheapproachofofferingprizestospurinnovation,whichwouldseemtosupportinnovationby

entrepreneurs.There’sbeenaboominlargeprizessince1970,

withinducementprizesaccountingfor78

percentoftotalprizes.29

Yet,quantitativeevidencefor

theeffectofINFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATIONFOUNDATION

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JULY2023PAGE8prizesisnotstrong.

Whereprizesarechosen,theymaybeparticularlyappropriatefordevelopingtechnologytobreakcriticaltechnologicalbarriers,

achieve

higherperformance,orstimulatethediffusionorcommercialization

oftechnologies.30

Theseareasalignwithamplifieruse,socarefulselection

ofgoalsandmetricsinthedesign

ofprizescouldbe

consideredtoinspire

thosepursuingearlymarkets.Be

alert

for

adjacent

markets

and

applications.

Goal-oriented

RD&Dshould

recognizethatwhileinnovationsaretargetedforonearea,

there

maybe

adjacentmarketsor

applicationswithevenlargerimpactor

a

moredirectpathwaytoadoption.Often

innovatorshave

tunnelvision—focusedon

meetingamarketneedthatjustifiestheirtimeandenergyindevelopingasolution—butareunawareofadjacentor

unseenmarkets,asnotedbyPeterDruckerdecadesago.31

Amplifierscan

revealabroadermarketto

innovatorsaugmentingthebusinesscaseand

providinggreaterscale.Thecompanythatdevelopedthefirstcomputer,Univac,sawthatit

would

begreatforscientificresearchbut

didn’tsee

the

marketforbusiness,letalonepersonalcomputing.Severalmarkets

connectedwithelectrochemistrymaybe

modesttoday,but

whencombinedwiththepotentialforleverageable

innovations,becomequiteattractive.Theglobalmarketforelectrolyzersis$1.2billion

in2023butexpected

reach$24billionby

2028(a

compoundannualgrowth

rate(CAGR)of80percent).32

Theglobalmarketforhydrogen

fuelcellswas

$14.7billion/yearin2021

andisprojected

tobea$80billion/yearmarketby2030

(CAGR21

percent).33

Themarketpotentialinchemicalsand

fuelsis

immensegiven

thearrayofproductsandneedtodecarbonize.34

Theglobalmarketforethylene(oneofthelargestcommodity

chemicals)in2021was$176

billionandisprojectedtoreach$287billionby2030.35Entrepreneurscan

spurdisruptiveinnovationby

reorganizingacurrentmarketorcreating

anewonethroughthe

applicationofexistingtechnologiestonewprocessesor

business

models.Thelatterishardtounderstand,asit’sdifficulttodoresearchonamarketthatdoesn’texistyet.Nevertheless,unseenmarketscanbe

thepathto

successand

should

betappedbyamplifiers.HOW

ARE

DOE,

DOD,

AND

OTHER

AGENCIES

USING

AMPLIFIERS?Severalagenciesrecognizethebenefitsofleveraginginnovationsacrossmultipleare