Ericsson-2023年6月移动研究报告（英）

/mobility-reportEricssonMobilityReportJune20232

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JJuunnee

22002233Letter

from

the

publisherMeeting

evolving

network

requirementsCommunications

service

providerscapacity

and

good

coverage

for

superiorthe

need

for

new

models

to

rate

mobileworldwide

are

continuing

to

invest

in

5G,driven

by

the

prospect

of

superiorconnectivity

and

emerging

opportunities.This

comes

despite

geopolitical

unrest

and

auser

experiences,

remains

limited

to

around

quality

of

experience

(QoE)

to

enable25

percent

of

4G

sites

globally,

withNorth

America

ahead

and

Europe

behind.As

global

mobile

network

data

trafficthe

design

of

networks

that

meet

futureservice

performance

needs.

As

the

use

ofaugmented

reality

(AR)

services

for

mobiledevices

grows,

mobile

networks

need

tobe

prepared

for

increased

performancemacroeconomic

slowdown

in

some

markets.

continues

to

grow,

with

a

CAGR

of

aroundNew

major

5G

markets

are

emerging.India

is

experiencing

massive

networkdeployments,

making

it

the

fastestgrowing

5G

market

globally.

5G

is

a

criticalcomponent

in

India’s

journey

to

realizeits

“Digital

India”

vision.

Meanwhile,

inNorth

America

the

addition

of

mid-band25

percent

projected

through

2028,

smartnetwork

modernization

becomes

imperative.

requirements,

primarily

by

adding

newManaging

this

growth

while

improvingthe

mobile

user

experience

requirescontinued

network

evolution.

Notably,5G

mid-band

build-out

is

proving

to

bemore

energy-efficient

and

cost-effectivespectrum

and

functionality

on

existingsites.

We

also

explore

how

Singtel’sdeployment

of

5G

network

slicing

at

the2022

Singapore

Grand

Prix

demonstratedthe

commercial

opportunities

ofspectrum

now

enables

superior

multi-band

compared

to

the

expansion

of

4G

networks.

differentiated

connectivity

services.5G

experiences

for

many

users.In

this

edition,

we

uncover

insights

thathighlight

key

considerations

for

futurenetwork

evolution,

based

on

analysis

ofdata

traffic

growth

and

patterns

acrossdifferent

locations

in

mobile

networks.As

you

dive

deeper

into

the

report,I

trust

that

you

will

find

this

reportengaging

and

that

it

provides

usefulinsights

as

we

navigate

the

world

of

5Gand

network

evolution.With

over

1

billion

5G

subscriptionsworldwide,

service

providers

in

leading5G

markets

have

been

experiencingpositive

revenue

growth

over

the

past2

years.

However,

the

5G

rollout

is

stillin

progress,

and

the

deployment

of

5Gmid-band

spectrum,

which

offers

highFredrik

JejdlingExecutive

Vice

President

andnext

wave

of

5G

applications,

emphasizing

Head

of

Business

Area

Networkswe

address

the

challenges

posed

by

theContentsForecastsArticles04

5G

mobile

subscriptions

toreach

1.5

billion

in

202323

Exploring

how

traffic

patterns

drivenetwork

evolutionExecutive

Editor:

Peter

JonssonProject

Manager:

Anette

Lundvall05

Continued

revenue

growthin

leading

5G

markets06

5G

subscriptions

rising

in

every

region08

North

East

Asia:

A

closer

look10

Weak

smartphone

market

is

notstopping

5G

adoption11

4G/5G

IoT

connections

risingas

2G/3G

declines12

Over

100

service

providersoffering

FWA

over

5G14

5G

continues

to

drive

innovationin

mobile

service

packaging16

High-data

users

driving

mobile

traffic18

Mobile

network

traffic

has

almostdoubled

in

two

years26

Exploring

differentiated

serviceswith

5G

networks30

AR

uptake

enabled

by

mobile

networks33

Mobile

quality

of

experience:Network

readiness

for

new

servicesForecasts:Writer

Editors:Richard

MöllerStephen

Carson,Steven

DavisCo-writers:Martin

Bäckström,

Greger

Blennerud,Fredrik

Burstedt,

Marko

Cejvan,Yossi

Cohen,

Gunnar

Heikkilä,

Josip

Jelic,Doroteja

Kobescak,

Fredric

Kronestedt,Per

Lindberg,

Peter

Linder,

David

Lindero,Jun

Ying

Liu,

Karl

Olsson,

Natasa

Pipic,Eliane

Semaan,

Raymond

Soh,36

Methodology37

Glossary38

Global

and

regional

key

figuresTomislav

Tolic,

Kenneth

Wallstedt,Li

Yang

G,

Jialong

Zhang19

5G

to

account

for

all

mobile

datagrowth

within

5

years21

5G

population

coveragehas

reached

35

percentContributors

from

Singtel:Cheong

Hai

Thoo,

Terrance

Lai,Kuan

Wai

Mun,

Lynette

Poh,Harish

Nambiar,

Cara

Foong,Hian

Hou

Chua3ForecastsEricssonMobilityReport

|

June20235Gisgrowingfast–total5Gsubscriptionsareprojectedtopassthe1.5billionmarkthis

year,

growingby500millioninjust1

year.Thegrowthcomesinspiteof

achallengingmacroeconomicclimate.Globally,around240commercial5Gnetworkshavebeenlaunchedsofar,

andserviceprovidersinthetop205Gmarketshaveenjoyedgrowingrevenuethatcorrelates

withgrowingsubscriptionpenetration.ForecastsThe

monthly

global

averageusage

per

smartphone

isexpected

to

exceedRevenue

is

rising

for

serviceproviders

in

the

top

20

5Gmarkets,

increasing

byMore

than

100

serviceproviders

are

now

offeringFixed

Wireless

Accessservices

over

5G.5G

mobile

subscriptionsare

set

to

reach1.5

billion

globally

bythe

end

of

2023.20

GB

at

the

end

of

2023.7

percent

in

the

last

2

years.20GB7%100

1

.5bn4ForecastsEricssonMobilityReport

|

June20235G

mobile

subscriptions

toreach

1.5

billion

in

2023During

the

first

quarter

of

2023,

total

5G

subscriptionsreached

1.1

billion,

adding

125

million.Service

providers

continue

to

deploy5G

despite

a

weaker

global

economyand

geopolitical

uncertainties.

Aroundthe

world,

about

240

service

providershave

now

launched

commercial

5Gservices,

and

around

35

have

deployedpenetration

at

41

percent.

In

North

East

Asia

Subscriptions

for

4G

continue

to

increase,the

penetration

was

30

percent,

followedby

the

Gulf

Cooperation

Council

countriesat

18

percent

and

Western

Europe

at13

percent.

In

2028,

it

is

projected

thatNorth

America

will

have

the

highest5G

penetration

at

91

percent,

followedby

Western

Europe

at

88

percent.The

global

5G

subscription

forecasthas

been

adjusted

to

take

into

accountdelayed

spectrum

auctions

in

severalcountries

and

continued

difficultgrowing

by

59

million

during

Q1

2023

to5.2

billion.

4G

subscriptions

are

projectedto

start

declining

from

this

year

to

around3.8

billion

by

the

end

of

2028

as

subscribersmigrate

to

5G.During

the

quarter,

3G

subscriptionsdeclined

by

85

million,while

GSM/EDGE-onlysubscriptions

dropped

by

59

million

andor

launched

5G

standalone

(SA).1The

most

common

5G

services

launchedby

service

providers

for

consumers

areenhanced

mobile

broadband

(eMBB),Fixed

Wireless

Access

(FWA),

gamingand

some

AR/VR-based

services.other

technologiesabout

4

million.3decreased

byChina,

Bangladesh

and

Nigeriahad

the

greatest

net

additions

ofsubscriptions

during

the

quarter,with

4

million

added

in

each

country.macroeconomic

conditions.

5GStrong

5G

subscription

growthin

North

Americasubscriptions

are

now

forecast

to

reach4.6

billion

globally

by

the

end

of

2028,making

up

more

than

50

percent

of

allmobile

subscriptions.

5G

will

become

thedominant

mobile

access

technology

bysubscriptions

in

2028.The

uptake

of

5G

subscriptions

in2North

America

has

been

stronger

thanexpected,

and

at

the

end

of

2022

theregion

had

the

highest

5G

subscriptionFigure

1:

Mobile

subscriptions

by

technology

(billion)105G

subscriptions

are

forecast9.1billion

to

reach

1.5

billion

in

2023.8.3billion1.5bn98765432105GLTE/TD-LTEWCDMA/HSPAGSMTD-SCDMACDMA20172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202812GSA

(May2023).A

5GsubscriptioniscountedassuchwhenassociatedwithadevicethatsupportsNewRadio(NR),asspecifiedin3GPP

Release15,andisconnectedtoa5G-enablednetwork.MainlyCDMA2000EVDO,TD-SCDMA

andMobileWiMAX.35ForecastsEricssonMobilityReport

|

June2023Continued

revenue

growthin

leading

5G

marketsThe

top

20

5G

markets

are

continuing

to

convert

5G

capabilities

intobusiness

value,

growing

revenues

by

7

percent

over

the

past

2

years.Analysis

of

developments

in

leading5G

markets

shows

a

strong

correlationbetween

increased

5G

subscriptionpenetration

and

service

revenue.

Whendata

from

Q4

2022

is

added

to

previousnow

started

to

adjust

their

tariffs

in

relation

speeds,

and

improved

user

experiences.to

the

Consumer

Price

Index

(CPI).

So

far,adjustments

have

been

significantly

lowerthan

inflation

and

this

practice

is

still

farfrom

commonplace.

As

these

adjustmentsonly

apply

to

entirely

new

or

renewedcontracts,

they

would

have

had

littleimpact

on

revenue

growth

during

2022.In

contrast

to

such

reactive

priceFor

service

providers,

the

additionalvalue

provided

to

consumers

andenterprises

translates

into

opportunitiesfor

upsell

and

revenue

increase.The

revenue

trend

in

Figure

2

indicatesthis

value

capture

has

already

begun.As

5G

networks

and

ecosystems

mature,with

more

services

and

applications

beingdeveloped

and

offered,

even

morevalue

for

customers

will

be

unlocked.analysis

by

Ericsson,1it

is

evident

that

thepositive

revenue

trend

is

continuing.As

shown

in

Figure

2,

the

launch

of5G

services

in

the

top

20

5G

marketsis

followed

by

a

positive

revenue2adjustments,

which

provide

no

incentivefor

consumers

to

pay

more,

the

launch

of5G

services

has

enabled

service

providersto

proactively

drive

a

shift

to

higher

mobiletariffs,

while

adding

value

for

consumers.development

of

3.5

percent

CAGR

overthe

last

2

years,

or

a

total

of

7

percent.Service

providers

promoting

5G

valuein

times

of

surging

inflationHistorically,

service

providers

have

found

itValue

of

connectivity

strengthenedchallenging

to

increase

consumer

prices

for

by

new

5G

servicesmobile

subscriptions

in

line

with

inflation.With

the

current

surge

of

inflation

acrossmany

areas,

some

service

providers

have5G

has

created

new

value

for

consumerand

enterprise

customers,

with

serviceofferings

of

larger

data

buckets,

higherFigure

2:

Revenue

vs.

5G

subscription

penetration

–top

20

5G

markets(reference

point

Q1

2017,

percent)Revenue110%5G

subscriptionpenetration24%18%12%6%MethodologyA

list

of

the

top

20

5G

markets

wasidentified,

based

on

5G

subscriptionpenetration

ranking.

For

eachservice

provider

in

these

markets,relative

revenue

development

wascalculated,

using

the

first

quarterof

2017

as

a

reference

point.105%100%95%The

development

was

calculatedas

a

rolling

four-quarter

average,to

filter

out

seasonality.

Finally,individual

developments

wereaggregated

into

an

average90%0%development

representing

all

serviceproviders

in

the

top

20

5G

markets.201720182019202020212022Source:

Ericsson

analysisofTechInsightsdata,Q4

2022.12EricssonMobilityReport–BusinessReviewedition(February2023).Marketscategorizedasthe“top205Gmarkets”:

Australia,Bahrain,China,Denmark,Finland,HongKong,Ireland,Japan,Kuwait,Monaco,Norway,Qatar,Saudi

Arabia,Singapore,SouthKorea,Switzerland,

Taiwan,UAE,UK,US.6ForecastsEricssonMobilityReport

|

June20235G

subscriptions

risingin

every

regionUptake

is

strong

in

North

America,

and

the

region

reached

a5G

subscription

penetration

of

41

percent

at

the

end

of

2022.Figure

3:

Mobile

subscriptions

by

region

and

technology

(percent)5GLTE

(4G)WCDMA/HSPA

(3G)GSM/EDGE-only

(2G)2022

2028

2022

2028TD-SCDMA

(3G)2022

202874%

57%CDMA-only

(2G/3G)2022

202830%

13%2022

20282022

20282022

202830%

71%2022

202818%

86%2022

202813%

88%2022

202841%

91%32%59%34%56%73%

41%42%74%58%55%79%73%66%60%58%45%55%49%40%32%27%25%22%17%22%9%12%9%Sub-SaharanAfricaMiddleEastandNorthSouth

EastAsia

andOceaniaCentralandEasternEuropeLatinAmericaIndia,Nepal

andBhutanNorth

EastAsiaGulfCooperationCouncilWesternEuropeNorthAmericaAfrica1Sub-Saharan

AfricaDespite

the

challenging

macroeconomic5G

is

forecast

to

have

the

fastest

growthrate

in

subscriptions,

attributed

primarilyThe

focus

is

on

4G

and

5G,

driven

by

theexploration

of

service

offerings

requiringenvironment,

nations

in

Sub-Saharan

Africa

to

coming

from

a

low

base.

More

thanhigh

bandwidth

and

low

latency,

and

theare

expected

to

invest

in

networkinfrastructure,

driven

by

a

large

youthfulpopulation

and

a

high

demand

for10

countries

in

Sub-Saharan

Africa

havelaunched

commercial

5G

networks

to

date,with

more

planned,

raising

the

forecast

foravailability

of

a

wide

range

of

devicesat

attractive

price

points.

As

a

result,

2Gsubscriptions

will

experience

a

significantconnectivity.This

will

also

enable

new

growth

5G

subscriptions

to

13

percent

of

the

totaldecline

between

2022

and

2028,

toopportunities

for

service

providers,

drivenby

advanced

mobile

data

and

value-addedsubscription

base

in

2028.account

for

around

5

percent

of

totalsubscriptions

at

the

end

of

the

period.services

like

mobile

banking

and

payments.

Middle

East

and

North

AfricaMobile

financial

services

are

expectedMigration

to

4G

networks

continues.4G

will

be

the

main

contributor

to

newsubscriptions

up

to

2028,

accounting

formore

than

half

of

all

mobile

subscriptions

atthe

end

of

the

period.

While

2G

remains

animportant

technology

in

the

region

due

tolow-priced

devices,

affordability

of

serviceplans

and

a

large

number

of

ruralsubscribers,

2G

subscriptions

are

projectedto

continuously

decline

between

now

andthe

end

of

our

forecast

period,

2028,

atwhich

point

they

will

account

for

29

percentof

total

subscriptions.Service

providers

are

continuing

to

investin

4G

and

are

predicted

to

see

subscriptions

increase

in

mobile

connectivity

andrise

by

4

percent

annually

between

2022and

2028,

to

account

for

around

60

percent

transfers.

Merchant

payments,

remittances,of

the

total

subscriptions

base

in

the

regionat

the

end

of

the

period.Strong

growth

in

5G

subscriptionswill

see

these

account

for

32

percent

ofthe

total

in

2028,

as

more

countries

issuelicenses

and

spectrum

to

enable5G

network

investment.to

continue

to

gain

momentum,

with

anexpansion

of

propositions

from

basicinsurance

and

other

services

will

also

befactors

to

increase

the

usage

of

mobilefinancial

services.1AllMiddleEastandNorth

AfricafiguresincludeGCCcountries.7ForecastsEricssonMobilityReport

|

June2023Gulf

Cooperation

Council

(GCC)This

is

an

adjustment

to

the

previousforecast

of

620

million,

impacted

bydelayed

spectrum

auctions

in

severalNorth

East

AsiaService

providers

have

been

investingin

5G

to

improve

coverage

and

capacity,GCC

countries

are

frontrunners

in

global5G

network

deployments

and

serviceofferings,

with

strong

regulatory

policiesand

frameworks

as

well

as

public

sectorinitiatives

driving

acceleration

of

growthof

the

5G

market.

5G

subscriptions

areprojected

to

grow

from

13

to

70

millionbetween

2022

and

2028,

accounting

for86

percent

of

the

total

subscriptions

at

theend

of

the

period.countries

and

slower-than-expected

growth.

with

a

focus

on

indoor

coverage.

StrongService

providers

continue

to

focus

oncreating

innovative

products

and

servicesfor

both

consumers

and

businesses.An

example

of

this

is

utilizing

the5G

subscription

growth

continued

in

2022,adding

around

240

million

subscriptions.5G

is

the

only

growing

subscription

typeand

is

expected

to

reach

1.1

billion

inthe

region

at

the

end

of

2024.

The

rapidgrowth

of

5G

subscriptions,

supported

bythe

availability

of

more

5G

device

models,has

positively

impacted

service

providers’financial

performance.

Major

serviceproviders

in

leading

5G

markets,

such

asmainland

China,

Taiwan

and

South

Korea,have

reported

a

positive

impact

of

5Gsubscribers

on

service

revenues

and

ARPU.capabilities

of

5G

standalone

(SA)

tobuild

network

slicing

use

cases.

There

issignificant

momentum

around

5G

FWA.While

service

providers

in

Australia

andthe

Philippines

continue

to

expand

theircommercial

5G

FWA

offerings,

a

5G

FWAtrial

with

sub-6

spectrum

and

mmWaveis

being

carried

out

in

Indonesia.

Serviceproviders

are

also

forging

partnershipsand

actively

expanding

the

5G

ecosystem.Accounting

for

73

percent

of

totalsubscriptions

currently,

4G

is

expectedto

decline

by

29

percent

annually

assubscribers

increasingly

move

to

5G,and

are

offered

various

services

such

asenhanced

mobile

broadband

(eMBB)

andFixed

Wireless

Access

(FWA).

Additionally,service

providers

will

continue

to

exploreenterprise

opportunities,

as

major

digitaltransformation

projects

take

place

acrossvarious

industries.Western

EuropeLatin

America4G

is

widely

deployed

and

has

had

thehighest

penetration

of

all

regions

at79

percent

at

the

end

of

2022.4G

is

currently

the

dominant

radio

accesstechnology

in

the

region,

accounting

for74

percent

of

all

subscriptions

at

the

endof

2022.

4G

subscription

growth

is

strong,with

around

60

million

added

during

2022.However,

3G

subscriptions

are

declining

asusers

migrate

to

4G

and

5G.

Many

serviceproviders

will

sunset

3G

networks

in

thenext

two

years

to

enable

the

reuse

of

radiospectrum

for

4G

deployments.5G

subscription

growth

was

strongduring

the

year,

rising

from

32

million

in2021

to

69

million

at

the

end

of

2022.4G

is

expected

to

decline

in

favor

ofsubstantially

increased

5G

subscriptionuptake

from

2023

onward.

5G

subscriptionsare

anticipated

to

reach

143

million

atthe

end

of

2023,

representing

88

percentpenetration

by

the

end

of

2028.

Manyservice

providers

will

be

sunsetting

3GCentral

and

Eastern

EuropeTechnology

adoption

and

subscriptionuptake

are

typically

slower

in

this

regionthan

in

Western

Europe.

This

is

due

in

partto

slower

spectrum

allocation

processes,as

well

as

consumers

being

reluctant

toupgrade

to

more

expensive

subscriptions.4G

is

the

dominant

technology,

accountingfor

73

percent

of

all

subscriptions

at

theend

of

2022.

Mobile

subscription

growthThe

forecast

for

5G

subscriptions

hasbeen

pushed

forward

one

year,

based

onslow

uptake

and

expected

continued

difficult

networks

in

the

next

few

years

to

enablehas

flattened

and

is

expected

to

be

virtually

macroeconomic

conditions

in

the

region.the

reuse

of

radio

spectrum

for

4G

and

5G.zero

in

the

coming

years.

However,

themigration

from

2G/3G

to

4G

continuesto

look

strong

up

to

2024.

From

2025,5G

is

expected

to

be

the

only

growingsubscription

type.During

the

forecast

period,

there

willcontinue

to

be

a

significant

decline

in

3Gsubscriptions,

from

22

percent

of

mobilesubscriptions

to

just

1

percent.There

were

around

7

million

5G

subscriptionsat

the

end

of

2022.

A

more

substantialuptake

is

expected

from

2024

onwards.By

the

end

of

2028,

5G

will

account

for42

percent

of

all

mobile

subscriptions.North

AmericaThe

addition

of

mid-band

spectrumnow

enables

superior

multi-band

5Gexperiences

for

many

users.

In

2023,5G

adoption

is

continuing

to

grow

strongly,with

more

than

250

million

subscriptionsIndia,

Nepal

and

BhutanFollowing

the

launch

of

5G

services

in

India

expected

by

the

year’s

end.

FWA,

providingin

early

October

2022,

India

is

seeingaggressive

5G

network

deployments

byservice

providers.

Fast-growing

networkavailability

across

cities,

attractive

5Gpricing

and

the

growing

availability

of

5Gsmartphones

has

seen

5G

subscriptionsreach

around

10

million

by

the

end

of

2022.Pan-Indian

availability

of

5G

networks

bythe

end

of

2023/early

2024

will

further

fuelgrowth.

5G

subscriptions

are

expected

toreach

700

million

and

are

estimated

toaccount

for

57

percent

of

mobilehigh-speed

internet

to

homes

and

smallbusinesses,

has

become

the

primarySouth

East

Asia

and

Oceaniatechnology

fueling

fixed

broadband

growthin

North

America.

5G

is

also

growing

in

theenterprise

segment

with

wireless

WAN

tobranch

office

locations

and

to

serve

mobileprofessions.

By

2028,

around

410

million5G

subscriptions

are

expected,

accountingfor

over

90

percent

of

mobile

subscriptions.Service

providers

are

continuing

to

expandtheir

5G

population

coverage.

By

the

endof

2022,

5G

was

available

to

around50

percent

of

the

population

in

Malaysiaand

66

percent

in

the

Philippines.

At

thesame

time,

more

than

80

percent

of

thepopulation

in

Australia

and

Thailand

hadaccess

to

the

technology,

and

Singaporeachieved

more

than

95

percent

coverageby

mid-2022.2Leading

service

providerssubscriptions

in

the

region

by

the

end

of2028.

eMBB

and

FWA

are

alreadyin

Indonesia

that

launched

commercial5G

services

using

their

existing

spectrumholdings

are

awaiting

the

release

ofnew

5G

spectrum

bands

to

expand

theirnetworks.

Meanwhile,

service

providersin

Vietnam

are

making

good

progresswith

trials

as

they

await

spectrumavailability.

5G

subscriptions

areemerging

as

the

initial

use

cases

for

5G.Meanwhile,

4G

continues

to

be

thedominant

subscription

type

drivingconnectivity

and

fueling

data

growth

inthe

region.

4G

subscriptions

are

forecastto

decline

from

820

million

in

2022

to500

million

by

2028.

Total

mobileforecast

to

reach

around

430

millionby

the

end

of

the

forecast

period.subscriptions

in

the

region

are

estimatedto

grow

to

1.2

billion

in

2028.2Populationcoveragefiguresfor

eachofthesecountriesasreportedbyserviceprovidersintheregion.8ForecastsEricssonMobilityReport

|

June2023North

East

Asia:A

closer

lookThe

North

East

Asia

region

consists

of

five

distinct,vibrant

markets

at

the

center

of

modern

digital

innovation,with

5G

being

one

of

the

key

enabling

technologies.Service

providers

in

the

North

East

Asiaregion

made

significant

investments

inearly

5G

deployments.

South

Korea

wasthe

first

country

to

launch

commercial5G

networks,

and

these

were

availablein

all

five

markets

by

2020.

Currently,5G

population

coverage

and

subscriptionuptake

in

the

region

is

ahead

of

most

ofthe

rest

of

the

world.However,

in

recent

quarters

they

haveturned

this

around,

and

now

show

amodest

increase

in

ARPU.

In

addition,they

are

proactively

looking

for

otherrevenue

opportunities

from

enterprisesand

con