ACCA-全球经济状况调查：2021年第3季度（英）-20正式版

GLOBALECONOMICCONDITIONSSURVEYREPORT:Q3,2021AboutACCAACCA(theAssociationofCharteredCertifiedAccountants)istheglobalprofessionalbodyforprofessionalaccountants.We’reathrivingglobalcommunityof233,000membersand536,000futuremembersbasedin178countriesandregions,whoworkacrossawiderangeofsectorsandindustries.Weupholdthehighestprofessionalandethicalvalues.Weoffereveryoneeverywheretheopportunitytoexperiencearewardingcareerinaccountancy,financeandmanagement.Ourqualificationsandlearningopportunitiesdevelopstrategicbusinessleaders,forward-thinkingprofessionalswiththefinancial,businessanddigitalexpertiseessentialforthecreationofsustainableorganisationsandflourishingsocieties.Since1904,beingaforceforpublicgoodhasbeenembeddedinourpurpose.InDecember2020,wemadecommitmentstotheUNSustainableDevelopmentGoalswhichwearemeasuringandwillreportoninourannualintegratedreport.Webelievethataccountancyisacornerstoneprofessionofsocietyandisvitalhelpingeconomies,organisationsandindividualstogrowandprosper.Itdoesthisbycreatingrobusttrustedfinancialandbusinessmanagement,combatingcorruption,ensuringorganisationsaremanagedethically,drivingsustainability,andprovidingrewardingcareeropportunities.Andthroughourcutting-edgeresearch,weleadtheprofessionbyansweringtoday’squestionsandpreparingforthefuture.We’reanot-for-profitorganisation.FindoutmoreatAboutIMA®(InstituteofManagementAccountants)IMA®isoneofthelargestandmostrespectedassociationsfocusedexclusivelyonadvancingthemanagementaccountingprofession.Globally,IMAsupportstheprofessionthroughresearch,theCMA®(CertifiedManagementAccountant)andCSCA®(CertifiedinStrategyandCompetitiveAnalysis)programs,continuingeducation,networking,andadvocacyofthehighestethicalbusinesspractices.TwicenamedProfessionalBodyoftheYearbyTheAccountant/InternationalAccountingBulletin,IMAhasaglobalnetworkofabout140,000membersin150countriesand350professionalandstudentchapters.HeadquarteredinMontvale,N.J.,USA,IMAprovideslocalizedservicesthroughitsfourglobalregions:TheAmericas,Asia/Pacific,EuropeandMiddleEast/India.FormoreinformationaboutIMA,pleasevisit:©TheAssociationofCharteredCertifiedAccountants,InstituteofManagementAccountantsOctober2021IntroductionTheGlobalEconomicConditionsSurvey(GECS),carriedoutjointlybyACCA(theAssociationofCharteredCertifiedAccountants)andIMA(theInstituteofManagementAccountants),isthelargestregulareconomicsurveyofaccountantsaroundtheworld,intermsofboththenumberofrespondentsandtherangeofeconomicvariablesitmonitors.THEGLOBALECONOMICCONDITIONSSURVEY(GECS),ISTHELARGESTREGULARECONOMICSURVEYOFACCOUNTANTSAROUNDTHEWORLD.TheGECShasbeenconductedforover10years.Itsmainindicesaregoodleadindicatorsofeconomicactivityandprovideavaluableinsightintotheviewsoffinanceprofessionalsonkeyvariables,suchasinvestment,employmentandcosts.Fieldworkforthe2021Q3surveytookplacebetween31Augustand15September2021andattracted985responsesfromACCAandIMAmembers,includingover100CFOs.ACCAandIMAwouldliketothankallmemberswhotookthetimetorespondtothesurvey.Itistheirfirst-handinsightsintothefortunesofcompaniesaroundtheworldthatmakeGECSatrustedbarometerfortheglobaleconomy.3ExecutivesummaryTheQ3GlobalEconomicConditionsThetwo‘fear’indices–measuredbyTHEQ3GLOBALECONOMICSurvey(GECS)pointstoaneasinginthepaceofglobaleconomicgrowthtowardstheturnoftheyear.Confidencefellbackbutremainsatahighlevel.Despitehighvaccinationratesinmanydevelopedcountries,theprevalenceoftheDeltaconcernthatcustomersandsuppliersmaygooutofbusiness–bothdeclinedagainintheQ3survey.Indeed,bothindicesarenowbackinlinewithlong-runaverages.ThisconfirmsthattheperceivedlevelofuncertaintyabouteconomicprospectshasCONDITIONSSURVEY(GECS)POINTSTOANEASINGINTHEPACEOFGLOBALECONOMICGROWTHTOWARDSTHETURNOFTHEYEAR.variantofCovid-19isresultinginadegreereturnedtomorenormallevels,atleastatofcautionthatisaffectingconfidence.Thethegloballevel(Chart2).globalordersindex,whichislessvolatilethantheconfidencemeasure,increasedmarginallyintheQ3surveyafterstronggainsinthefirsthalf.Thisisconsistentwithamoderationinthepaceofgrowth,Thereisawideregionalvariationinchangesinconfidenceinthelatestsurvey.TheglobalconfidenceindexwasdraggeddowninparticularbyfallsinconfidenceinalthoughthiswastobeexpectedaftertheNorthAmericaandWesternEurope.Bothpost-lockdownbounce.regionsstillhaverelativelyhighlevelsCHART1:PaceofglobalrecoverytoeaseIndex%06-5-10-15-20-25-30420-2-4-6-8-10-35-4020132014GECSindex:globalordersSource:OECD(2021).ACCA/IMA(2012–21)2015201620172018201920202021WorldGDP(G20)growthy/y%(RHS)BOTHFEARINDICESARENOWBACKINLINEWITHLONG-RUNAVERAGES.THISCONFIRMSTHATTHEPERCEIVEDLEVELOFUNCERTAINTYABOUTECONOMICPROSPECTS30HASRETURNEDTOCHART2:The‘fearindices’backatmorenormallevelsIndex504020MORENORMALLEVELS,ATLEASTATTHE100GLOBALLEVEL.Q32012Q12014Q32015Q12017Q32018Q12020Q32021GECS:indexofconcernaboutcustomersgoingoutofbusinessGECS:indexofconcernaboutsuppliersgoingoutofbusinessSource:ACCA/IMA(2012–21)4GLOBALECONOMICCONDITIONSSURVEYREPORT:Q3,2021ofconfidenceafterbigjumpsinthefirsthalfoftheyear.Bycontrast,confidenceincreasedinAsiaPacificandSouthAsiaintheQ3survey,recoveringafterfallsintheprevioussurvey.TheMiddleEastistheonlyregiontorecordimprovedWesternEurope.Thisisareversalofdiscussestwoimportantareaswhererecenttrendsandtheleveloftheordersindicesinadvancedregionsremainsabovethatforemergingmarket(EM)regions.Economicprospectsindevelopedincreasedgreeninfrastructureinvestmenteconomiesremainbrighterthaningreatereffortsareneededifthe2015Parisagreementgoalofzeronetemissionsby2050istobereached.Thefirstisbyboththepublicandprivatesector,includingR&DonnewtechnologiesthatwillhelpreduceCO2emissions.Butthemainthrustofthepieceisthattheremustbemorewidespreaduseofcarbonpricingatalevelthatcreatesincentivesforalleconomicagentstoswitchfromcarbon-intensiveproductsandfossilfuelenergyandintotheirlow/zerocarbonconfidenceinboththeQ2andQ3surveysemergingmarkets,wherelowvaccination(Chart3).ratescontinuetopreventafull-scaleeconomicrecovery(Chart4).Fororders–theproxyforrealeconomicactivity–thereisasplitinthissurveybetweenmodestimprovementinemergingmarketsandfallsinadvancedregionssuchasNorthAmericaandSection2ofthisreportisathematicpieceentitled‘Payingthecarbonpricefornetzero’.AheadoftheCOP26meetinginGlasgowlaterthisyear,thearticleTHEREISAWIDEREGIONALVARIATIONINCHANGESINCHART3:AvariedregionalpictureonconfidenceIndexpointsChangeinGECSconfidenceindexbetweenQ22021andQ3202130CONFIDENCEINTHELATESTSURVEY.THEGLOBALCONFIDENCEINDEXWASDRAGGED20100DOWNINPARTICULARBY-10FALLSINCONFIDENCE-20INNORTHAMERICAAND-30WESTERNEUROPE.-40-50SouthAsiaAsiaPacificMiddleEastAfricaGlobalWesternEuropeNorthAmericaCHART4:OrdersimproveinEMregions,falterindevelopedregionsIndexpointsChangeinGECSordersindexbetweenQ22021andQ3202120151050-5-10-15MiddleEastSouthAsiaAfricaGlobalWesternEuropeAsiaPacificNorthAmerica5GLOBALECONOMICCONDITIONSSURVEYREPORT:Q3,2021alternatives.Todate,thecoverageandlevelofcarbonpriceswillfailtogenerateanythingclosetotherequiredreductionininmanyEMs,wherevaccinationratesareCO2emissions.Exploringestablishmentofanagreedminimumcarbonpriceamongotheralternativeswouldbeagoodfirststepinhelpingtoacceleratethedeclineinemissions.especiallyoftheDeltavariant,isinsomecasesunderminingconfidence.Moreover,withalowofaround$25in2020.Inaddition,ashortageofsemiconductorshasresultedinreducedcarproductioninmanycountries.Shippingcostshavejumpedbyafactoroffourcomparedwiththepre-pandemicperiod,especiallyonthecrucialroutesfromChinatotheWest.Theseissuesshouldprovetemporaryasdemandandsupplycomebackintoline.Butfornow,theeffectistomoderateglobalgrowthfromarapidtoasteadypace.Nevertheless,growthshouldbesufficientformoreeconomiestoregaintheirpre-pandemiclevelofactivitybytheendoftheyear(Chart5).low,containmentmeasuresaredirectlyaffectingoutput.ThisisaparticularissueinSoutheastAsiawhereGDPforecastsforthisyearhavebeendowngraded.Butthemainheadwindforadvancedeconomiesisnowsupplyshortagesandtheknock-oneffectsonconsumerprices.Commoditypriceshavereboundedstronglythisyearasglobaldemandhasrecovered;oilpriceswereapproaching$80perbarrelinearlyOctober,comparedSection3givesadetailedviewofglobaleconomicprospects.Afterexceptionallystronggrowthinthefirsthalfoftheyear,therearesignsofamoderationingrowthasyear-endapproaches.ContinuedprevalenceofCovid-19infections,GROWTHSHOULDBESUFFICIENTFORMOREECONOMIESTOREGAINTHEIRPRE-PANDEMICLEVELOFACTIVITYBYTHEENDOFTHEYEAR.CHART5:AnunevenrecoveryRealGDPQ22021relativetoQ42019Percentagechange%1086420-2-4-6-8-10TurkeyChinaSouthAustraliaAfricaUSGlobalCanadaUKEuroareaSaudiArabiaIndiaSource:OECD202161.GlobalandregionalanalysisThisGECSpointstoamoderationinTheregionalpatternofordersillustratesthenear-termoutlookaswellastherecentpastforadvancedandemergingregions.Forexample,NorthAmericashowedasignificantdip,butordersstagedarecoveryinSouthAsia,havingbeinghitearlierintheyearbytheimpactofrenewedlockdowns.Indeed,despitetheQ3changes,itremainsthecasethattheordersindicesinNorthAmericaandWesternEuropearehigherthaninEMregionssuchasSouthAsiaandAfrica.SUPPLYSHORTAGESANDHIGHERthepaceofglobaleconomicgrowththroughtotheturnoftheyear.TheglobalconfidenceindexfellbackinQ3butremainsatahighlevel.Thekeyactivityindicatorsedgedhigher,apartfromtheemploymentindexwhichrecordedamoresignificantgain.Slowergrowthisconcentratedinadvancedeconomieswheresupplyshortagesandhigherpricesareconstrainingoutput:underlyingdemandremainsstrong.ItremainsthecasethatmoreadvancedeconomiesarelikelytojointheUSandregainthepre-pandemiclevelofoutputlaterthisyearorearlyin2022(seeSection3).INFLATIONARETAKINGSOMEOFTHESTEAMOUTOFGROWTHINADVANCEDECONOMIES.CHART6:GlobalindiceslosingmomentumIndexGECSGlobalindices3020100-10-20-30-40-50-60Q32012Q12014Q32015Q12017Q32018Q12020Q32021ConfidenceindexOrdersindexCapitalexpenditureindexEmploymentindexSource:ACCA/IMA(2012–21)DESPITETHEQ3CHART7:OrdersslipbackinmostregionsinQ3CHANGES,ITREMAINSTHECASETHATTHEORDERSINDICESINNORTHAMERICAANDWESTERNEUROPEAREHIGHERTHANINEMREGIONSSUCHIndexGECSordersindices:majorregions20100-10-20-30-40-50ASSOUTHASIAANDAFRICA.Q32012NorthAmericaSource:ACCA/IMA(2012-20)Q12014Q32015AsiaPacificQ12017Q32018Q12020Q32021AfricaMiddleEastWEuropeSouthAsia7GLOBALECONOMICCONDITIONSSURVEYREPORT:Q3,2021TheGECSindexofconcernaboutoperatingcostsincreasedinthelatestsurveyandisnowatitshighestlevelsincepricespiralresultinginasustainedriseininflationisunlikely,butremainsarisk.survey.ButtherewasanotableriseininflationexpectationsinWesternEuropeintheQ3survey,althoughexpectations2019Q1(Chart8).ThesurgeincommodityInthelatestsurvey,respondentswereagainarefirmlyforamodestratherthanlargepricesandtransportcostsisfeedingintohigherinputcosts,especiallyformanufacturers.Inaddition,somesectorsarenowexperiencingrisingwagesinanattempttofillvacancies.Ageneralwage-askedaboutinflationexpectationsoverthenextfiveyears(Chart9).Inallregions,atleasttwo-thirdsofrespondentsexpectinflationtobeslightlyormuchhigherthanexpectingariseofthreepercentagenow,thesamesituationasinthepreviouspointsormoreinthenextfiveyears.riseininflation.Meanwhile,expectationsinNorthAmericawerelittlechangedinQ3,withover40%ofrespondentsTHEGECSINDEXOFCONCERNABOUTCHART8:Concernaboutoperatingcostscontinuestoincrease%GECS:percentageconcernedaboutrisingcostsOPERATINGCOSTS60INCREASEDINTHELATESTSURVEYANDISNOWATITSHIGHESTLEVELSINCE2019Q1.5550454035302520Q32012Q12014Q32015Q12017Q32018Q12020Q32021Source:ACCA/IMA(2012-21)CHART9:InflationexpectationsrisingWhatisyourexpectationforinflationcomparedwithnowoverthenextfiveyears?%%respondingforeachcategory706050403020100Slightly/muchlowerAboutthesameSlightlyhigher(+1to3percentagepoints)Muchhigher(+>3percentagepoints)n

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WesternEurope8GLOBALECONOMICCONDITIONSSURVEYREPORT:Q3,2021RegionalpictureCHART10:NorthAmericaNORTHAMERICAIndexAllthemajorindicesfellbacksignificantlyinthelatestsurvey,signallinga60moderationinthepaceofgrowthratherthanastalling.TheUSeconomyhadexpandedatanannualrateofaround6.5%throughthefirsthalf,benefitingthewholeregion.Asoftergrowthoutlookhasbeencausedmainlybysupplyshortagesandhigherpricesrestrainingdemand,butcontinuedcautionaboutCovid-19hasalsobeenafactor.DespitetheQ3diptheNorthAmericaGECSindicesareconsistentwithcontinuedsteadygrowththroughtotheendof2021.40200-20-40-60Q32012Q12014Q32015Q12017Q32018Q12020Q32021Q32021Q32021ConfidenceindexCapitalexpenditureindexOrdersindexEmploymentindexSource:ACCA/IMA(2012-20)ASIA-PACIFICCHART11:Asia-PacificTheregionalsurveyinQ3againpresentedamixedpicturewithconfidenceimprovingbutordersfalling–thereverseofthesituationintheprevioussurvey.Theoverallpictureisoneofslowinggrowth,albeitfromahealthypace.SpreadoftheDeltavariantoftheCovid-19virus,alongwithlimitedvaccinationsinmanycountries,hasresultedinrenewedrestrictionsandfactoryclosures.Butdemandfortheregion’sexportsremainsbuoyantandthisshouldsustainsteadyoverallgrowthinthecomingmonths.Index3020100-10-20-30-40-50-60-70Q32012Q12014Q32015Q12017Q32018Q12020ConfidenceindexCapitalexpenditureindexOrdersindexEmploymentindexSource:ACCA/IMA(2012-20)WESTERNEUROPEWesternEuroperecordedadipinCHART12:WesternEuropeIndexconfidenceinthissurvey,possiblyareflectionofincreasedCovidinfectionsinsomecountries.ButactivityindicatorswerebroadlyflatinQ3,havingrecoveredstronglyintheprevioussurvey.EconomicgrowthintheEUasawholeisbeingsupportedbyfastergrowthinsometourist-dependentcountries,buthamperedelsewherebysupplyshortages,especiallyincarproduction.Theneteffectisthatgrowthshouldholdupreasonablywellfortherestof2021andthistooisthemessagefromtheregionalGECS.6040200-20-40-60Q32012Q12014Q32015Q12017Q32018Q12020ConfidenceindexOrdersindexCapitalexpenditureindexEmploymentindexSource:ACCA/IMA(2012-20)9GLOBALECONOMICCONDITIONSSURVEYREPORT:Q3,2021MIDDLEEASTCHART13:MiddleEastConfidenceintheMiddleEastregionincreasedfurtherinQ3asthecontinuedglobalrecoverysupportedoilprices.TheordersindexhadthegreatestincreaseofallGECSregionsinthissurvey,movingabovethepre-pandemiclevelofQ42019.Theregionincludessomecountriesthathavewell-advancedvaccinationrates,suchasIsraelandtheUAE.This,alongwithImprovedoilrevenues,shouldsupportcontinuedeconomicrecovery.Index6040200-20-40-60-80Q32012Q12014Q32015Q12017Q32018Q12020Q32021Q32021Q32021ConfidenceindexCapitalexpenditureindexOrdersindexEmploymentindexSource:ACCA/IMA(2012-20)SOUTHASIACHART14:SouthAsiaConfidencerecoveredinQ3andisnowatitshighestlevelinoversixyears.Index40Moreover,theregionalsoshowedariseinordersafterafallintheprevioussurvey.AnimprovedoutlookisduemainlytobetterprospectsinIndia,followingasurgeinCovid-19infectionsinApril/May.ButinSouthAsiaasawhole,thepaceofvaccinationremainsslow,leavingtheregionvulnerabletofurtherCovid-19waves.ThelegacyoftheCovidcrisisinSouthAsiawillbeasignificantincreaseinthenumberslivinginextremepoverty.200-20-40-60-80Q32012Q12014Q32015Q12017Q32018Q12020ConfidenceindexCapitalexpenditureindexOrdersindexEmploymentindexSource:ACCA/IMA(2012-20)AFRICACHART15:AfricaConfidencemovedhigherintheQ3surveyandisnowatitshighestlevelonrecord.OrdersalsoincreasedbutitisnoteworthythatAfricaistheonlyregioninGECSwhereordersarestillbelowthepre-pandemiclevelofQ42019.Covid-19infectionsremainatahighlevelandthevaccinationrateisextremelylow.Healthandfiscalresourcesremainextremelystretched.TherewillbenostrongrecoveryinmanyAfricancountriesincomingmonths,withthepossibleexceptionofcommodityexportersbenefitingfromhigherpricesanddemand.Index40200-20-40-60-80Q32012Q12014Q32015Q12017Q32018Q12020ConfidenceindexOrdersindexCapitalexpenditureindexEmploymentindexSource:ACCA/IMA(2012-20)102.ThematicanalysisPayingthe(carbon)pricefornetzeroAgreeninvestmentpushcanhelpleadtheeconomyoutoftheCovid-19crisisandmakesignificantprogressonmitigatingclimatechange.TheEU’searmarkingof37%ofthetotaldisbursementunderthe2021/22RecoveryandResilienceFacilityforclimate-friendlyinvestmentsisagoodexample.Butoverthenextdecade,ascalingupofinvestmentandareallocationawayfromfossilfuelsandtowardcleanenergywillbenecessary.Thepublicsectorwillhaveacrucialroletoplaythroughinvestmentincriticalpublicinfrastructureandsupportmeasuresforprivateinvestment,includingR&D.Estimatesofrequiredadditionalpublicinvestmentrangebetween0.5%and4.5%ofGDPcumulativelyoverthenextdecade,withaconsensusofaround2%ofGDP.Publicinvestmentisassumedtotakeplacemainlyintherenewableandotherlow-carbonenergysectors,transportinfrastructureandtheenergyefficiencyofbuildings.Privateinvestmentneedsareestimatedatabouttwicethelevelofpublicinvestmentonaverageglobally.ButinEMs,thepublicinvestmentneedsaregreater.Thisisrelatedtothenecessityofshiftingfromfossilfuel-basedelectricitygenerationtocleanpowerandanTHEIMPORTANCEOFTHEDELAYEDUNCONFERENCEONCLIMATECHANGECOP26MEETINGSCHEDULEDTOInthe2015ParisAgreement,countriesagreedto“holdingtheincreaseintheglobalaveragetemperaturetowellbelow2°Cabovepre-industriallevels”toavertcatastrophicoutcomes.Keepingtemperatureincreasesbelow2°C,inturn,willrequirebringingnetgreenhousegasemissionstozeroby2050.Recentevents,includingdevastatingfloodsinChina,EuropeandthenortheastintheUS,andforestfiresinGreeceandCaliforniahaveunderscoredtheneedtoactonclimatechange.TheimportanceofthedelayedUNConferenceonClimateChangeCOP26meetingscheduledtotakeplaceinGlasgowlaterthisyearcannotbeoverstated.TAKEPLACEINGLASGOWLATERTHISYEARCANNOTBEOVERSTATED.Butwhatarethepoliciesthatwillachievenetzeroemissionsby2050?Itisgenerallyagreedthatpolicyneedstobemuchmoreambitiousthanithasbeensofar.Therequiredstrategyinvolvestwokeyelements:greeninfrastructureinvestmentfromthepublicandprivatesectorandaformofcarbonpricing.Suchpoliciesneedtobepursuedatagloballevelofcourse,withparticularchallengesforEMs,whicharealsostrivingforfastereconomicgrowthandhigherlivingstandards.ThediscussionbelowdrawsonarecentIMFStaffPaper‘ReachingNetZeroEmissions’(IMF2021a).attendantupgradetoelectricitynetworksandstorage.Inadvancedeconomies,whereconsumersareexpectedtoshifttowardelectricvehiclesearlier,publicinvestmentneedsaremostlyfocusedonelectricitynetworksandstorageand“otherend-use”,whichmostlyconsistsofelectricvehicleinfrastructure.11GLOBALECONOMICCONDITIONSSURVEYREPORT:Q3,2021CarbonPricingcountriescurrentlyhaveacarbonpriceper2021,theEUannounceditsintentionofmetrictonofCO2exceedingUS$75–thepriceidentifiedascompatiblewiththe2°Ctarget:Liechtenstein,Sweden,andSwitzerland.Chart16showsthelevelofgovernmentadministeredcarbonpricesprevailinginselectedlargeeconomiesin2020andtheshareofCO2emissionscoveredbytheseprices.introducingaCarbonBorderAdjustmentMechanism(CBAM)coveringsectorssuchasironandsteel,cement,aluminium,andelectricity.TheCBAMisintendedtobecomefullyoperationalin2026.Carbonpricingisconsideredanessentialtoolinachievingnetzeroemissions.Carbonpricingcantaketheformeitherofastraightforwardtaxthatraisesthepricetoacertainlevelorofanemissionstradingscheme(ETS)(‘capandtrade’)wherethequantityofCO2emissionsissetandpermitsareissuedforthisquantity;thesepermitsarethentradedwhicheffectivelygeneratesapriceforcarbon.Ineithercase,raisingthepriceofcarbonprovidesincentivestotransitiontowardslowcarbonalternativesandawayfromfossilfuels.AnalternativeapproachthanCBAMswouldbeanagreedglobalminimumpriceofcarbon.Thiswouldallowforalowercarbonpricefloorforcountrieswithlowerpercapitaincomesinrecognitionofdifferingresponsibilitiesbetweencountries.Butearlyactiononthisisnecessary.Thelongereffectivecarbonpricingisdelayed,theharderandmoreAlimitingfactorinthegeographicalspreadandlevelofcarbonpricingistheriskof‘carbonleakage’–i.e.,companiesbasedinacountrywithahighcarbonpricecouldmovecarbon-intensiveproductionoverseastotakeadvantageofBothcarbontaxesandETSshaveexistedformanyyears.Swedenintroducedacarbontaxin1991andtheEUETSbeganin2005.Morerecently,California’sETSwasintroducedin2012andnowcoversnearly90%ofitsgreenhousegases(atapriceofaboutUS$17permetrictonofCO2).InQ22021,thetotalnumberofcarbonpricingschemesgloballyhasreached61,with23%ofglobalemissionsbeingcoveredbyacarbonprice(IMF(2021a)).Nonetheless,onlythreesmallloweremissionsstandards,ordomesticallycostlyitwillbeinlosteconomicactivitytoproducedproductscouldbereplacedbymorecarbon-intensiveimports.Carbonreachnetzeroby2050.Aswithsomuchpolicydesignedtochangeeconomicleakagecanthereforeseriouslyundermineactivity,theadoptionofearlyandeffortstoaddressglobalclimatechange.OnewayofcorrectingforthisisthroughBorderCarbonAdjustments,whichineffectareimporttariffsthatraisetheimportpricesofenergyintensivegoodssuchthattheyincludethecarbonpriceappliedtodomesticproducers.InJulyanticipatedpolicychangesisthemosteffectiveapproach.TheIMFmodellingsuggeststhatdelayingcarbonpricinguntil2030wouldmakeitalmostimpossibletoreachnetzeroby2050withthemostlikelyoutcomebeingthatCO2emissionswouldmerelybeheldsteady.BOTHTHELEVELOFGOVERNMENTADMINISTEREDCARBONPRICESANDTHEIRCOVERAGEOFCO2EMISSIONSARECHART16:CarbonpricesandtheircoverageUS$/tC02Carbonprices%40803530252015105706050403020100FARTOOLOW.0EUn

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ShareofjurisdictionsGHGemissionscovered(RHS,%)12GLOBALECONOMICCONDITIONSSURVEYREPORT:Q3,2021Chart17givesasnapshotoftheregionalshareofglobalCO2emissionsin2019.ItisclearthatsubstantialprogresstonetzerocanonlybemadebythebiggeremitterssuchasChina,theUSandEUreachingthatgoalthemselves.Butunlessemergingmarketsalsoreduceemissions,thennetzerowillbemissed–emissionswillbereducedfromcurrentlevelsbutremainuncomfortablyabovezero.ThechallengeismuchgreaterforEMs,givennewtechnologiesthatarelikelytobeConclusionGovernmentshaveacrucialroleinreducingcarbonemissionsthroughregulation,theprovisionofgreennecessaryifthetargetistobereached.Butbyraisingthepriceofcarbontoreflectitsenvironmentalimpact,carbontaxescreatethemarketincentivetoswitchoutofcarbon-intensivecapital.Theincentiveforconsumersistoswitchtolowcarbonproductsandreduceemissionswheneverdoingsocostslessthanthehigh-carbonprice.infrastructureandappropriatelytargetedsubsidies.Butcarbontaxesarenecessary(ifnotbythemselvessufficient)ifwearetoreachnetzero.Bydeployingthepowerofthepricemechanism,carbontaxescanensurethatnodecisionaboutanycarbonintensiveactivityescapesitsinfluence;consumersproducers,investorsandinnovatorsallfacethesamechoices.Butinanintegratedglobaleconomyunilateralactionbyindividualcountrieshaslimits.Aglobalminimumcarbonpricewouldbeamajorsteptowardsreachingthegoalofnetzeroemissionsby2050.Moreover,itwoulddosoinanequitableandthatovertheperiodto2050theyarelikelyCarbontaxeseffectivelytargetthebiggesttoberelativelyfastgrowingasGDPperheadcatchesupwiththatofdevelopedeconomiesandthereforetheirdemandforsucheconomiesittendstobethoseonenergyandpotentiallycarbon-intensiveproductswillbegrowingrapidlytoo.emittersofCO2,whichgenerallyarethehigh-incomecountries.Butwithinlowerincomesthatwouldpayahigherproportionoftheirincomeincar