银行业角度看6月社融：信贷阶段性冲高；内生修复筑底期

内容目录一、社融增速同比增9.0%，增量超市场预期 .-4-8三、M2M11314图表目录图表14-22022年同期增加情况（）532季度新增社融结构情况（）5图表4（亿元）......................-7-图表5：新增社融结构占比8-图表6（亿，%）9-图表7（亿元）9-图表8（）10-92季度新增贷款结构情况（）10图表10：新增贷款结构占比............................................................................--图表（）12-图表12：30）12-图表13：M2M1（%）13图表14：M2M1（%）13图表15（亿，%）13-图表16：新增存款情况亿元）14-一、社融增速同比增9.0%，增量超市场预期6月社融新增4.229726致预期的3.22万亿。9.0%50.5个百分点。图表1新增社融（亿）比去年同期增加（亿）同比增速2021/1/3151,8841,34913.032021/2/2817,2438,50613.292021/3/3133,762-18,07612.312021/4/3018,570-12,45711.662021/5/3119,522-12,34411.032021/6/3037,0172,33610.962021/7/3110,752-6,17610.662021/8/3129,893-5,96010.322021/9/3029,026-5,66710.002021/10/3116,1762,24710.032021/11/3025,9834,62810.112021/12/3123,6826,49010.292022/1/3161,7599,87510.452022/2/2812,170-5,07310.212022/3/3146,56512,80310.552022/4/309,327-9,24310.242022/5/3128,4158,89310.482022/6/3051,92614,90910.852022/7/317,785-2,96710.722022/8/3124,712-5,18110.462022/9/3035,4116,38510.582022/10/319,134-7,04210.332022/11/3019,837-6,14610.032022/12/3113,058-10,6249.582023/1/3159,871-1,8889.662023/2/2831,62319,45310.232023/3/3153,8627,29710.252023/4/3012,2442,91710.262023/5/3115,556-12,8599.792023/6/3042,200-9,7269.32资料来源：人民银行，社融结构分析：1//76.2%，5.6%和128（5764140和358。社融规模同比减少972618256月表内政府债融资同比减少1.08去66月6，1758对较低的基数下同比仍然合计少减998亿元。图表2：新增社融较2022年同期增加情况（亿元）社融人民币贷款委托贷款信托贷款未贴现银行承兑汇票债券融资股票融资政府债券Abs核销2021/1/311,3493,258117-1,2743,499-50382-5,176-5061142021/2/288,5066,211256-3964,600-2,538244-8073721072021/3/31-18,076-2,879546-1,770-5,114-6,124585-3,213638-372021/4/30-12,457-3,399366-1,351-2,729-5,613499382376-42021/5/31-12,344-1,208-135-958-1,762-3,956364-4,661335-352021/6/302,3364,15310-194-2,41124141858-8-2652021/7/31-6,176-1,8301-204-1,186733-277-3,639723-4792021/8/31-5,960-1,488592-1,046-1,314990196-4,050-40-1172021/9/30-5,667-1,416295-939-1,489-179-369-2,050202-2852021/10/312,2471,0891-186203-2-811,236-333-1912021/11/304,628-2,28866-8032423,1665234,158-528-912021/12/316,490-1,108143677971,7319494,548-559-5982022/1/319,8753,806337162-1691,9214483,589-187-762022/2/28-5,073-4,32926185-4,8672,254-1081,705124-1132022/3/3112,8034,7801491,5322,583-571753,943-5795042022/4/30-9,243-9,224211713-40528352173-390282022/5/318,8933,936276676-1421,443-4253,881-4381092022/6/3014,9097,358942181,287-1,581-3678,7080-192022/7/31-2,967-4,3032401,173-428-2,3204992,178-3387522022/8/31-5,1816311,5788903,359-3,227-227-6,693-264992022/9/306,3857,9311,5301,907118-804250-2,533-83472022/10/31-7,042-3,3216431,000-1,270159-58-3,3767-222022/11/30-6,146-1,573-1231,825573-3,410-506-1,638-975432022/12/31-10,6244,0513143,789867-4,876-590-8,893-770-1,3422023/1/31-1,8887,326156618-1,770-4,290-475-1,886-1181082023/2/2819,4539,100-38174,15834-145,416-2261102023/3/317,2977,196672141,503-462-344-1,052-48-3492023/4/302,917815857341,210-809-173636-160-362023/5/31-12,859-6,011167922-729-2,541461-5,011-158292023/6/30-9,7261,825323675-1,75814112-10,82800注：最新月份暂未披露abs和核销数据资料来源：人民银行，22800021.97企业债分别同比少增1.52万亿、3371亿和3336亿元。图表3：历年2季度新增社融结构情况（亿元）120,000100,00080,00060,00040,00020,000-20,000--20,0002020 2021 2022 2023资料来源：人民银行，细项来看：1+LPR+6186月销售总体跟53.241825、表外信贷情况。6-6921758亿。616月新增信托和委托贷款规模分别减少153亿和57亿。不过去年同期基数较低，因此同比仍分别少减675亿和323亿。图表4：新增表内外票据融资及企业短贷占比新增社融（亿元）新增票据融资新增未贴现银行承兑汇票合计新增票据+未贴现银行承兑汇票占比新增社融新增企业短贷新增企业短贷占比社融2021/1/31-1,4054,9023,4976.75,75511.12021/2/28-1,855639-1,216-7.12,49714.52021/3/31-1,525-2,296-3,821-11.33,74811.12021/4/302,711-2,1525593.0-2,147-11.62021/5/311,538-9266123.1-644-3.32021/6/302,747-2212,5266.83,0918.42021/7/311,771-2,316-545-5.1-2,577-24.02021/8/312,8131272,9409.8-1,149-3.82021/9/301,353141,3674.71,8266.32021/10/311,160-8862741.7-288-1.82021/11/301,605-3831,2224.74101.62021/12/314,087-1,4192,66811.3-1,054-4.52022/1/311,7884,7336,52110.610,10016.42022/2/283,052-4,228-1,176-9.74,11133.82022/3/313,1872873,4747.58,08917.42022/4/305,148-2,5572,59127.8-1,948-20.92022/5/317,129-1,0686,06121.32,6429.32022/6/307961,0661,8623.66,90613.32022/7/313,136-2,7443925.0-3,546-45.52022/8/311,5913,4865,07720.5-121-0.52022/9/30-827132-695-2.06,56718.52022/10/311,905-2,156-251-2.7-1,843-20.22022/11/301,5491901,7398.8-241-1.22022/12/311,146-5525944.5-416-3.22023/1/31-4,1272,963-1,164-1.915,10025.22023/2/28-989-70-1,059-3.35,78518.32023/3/31-4,6871,790-2,897-5.410,81520.12023/4/301,280-1,347-67-0.5-1,099-9.02023/5/31420-1,797-1,377-8.93502.22023/6/30-821-692-1,513-3.67,44917.7来源：人民银行，债券和股权融资分析。1、政府债融资在去年的高基数下同比少增。6538820221.08万亿。2、本月企业债和股票融资同比变化不大。6月新增企业债融资2360147012022图表5：新增社融结构占比新增信贷表外融资直接融资政府债abs核销2021/1/3175.78.09.54.7-0.10.52021/2/2880.5-2.311.95.9-1.02.12021/3/3182.3-12.213.69.31.43.22021/4/3067.7-19.923.920.10.92.52021/5/3173.3-13.5-1.834.31.31.92021/6/3064.5-4.713.220.3-0.14.82021/7/3177.3-37.637.516.9-0.22.52021/8/3143.7-3.520.532.60.91.82021/9/3061.1-7.36.627.82.25.22021/10/3147.7-13.119.238.1-0.92.22021/11/3049.6-9.820.431.42.92.22021/12/3141.0-27.017.949.32.611.52022/1/3169.77.311.89.8-0.30.32022/2/2878.6-41.534.522.4-0.42.12022/3/3169.90.310.115.2-0.23.42022/4/3030.6-34.051.741.9-2.35.22022/5/3163.3-6.42.337.2-0.71.72022/6/3058.3-0.35.731.20.03.42022/7/3137.9-39.228.451.4-4.613.12022/8/3150.719.310.812.30.02.52022/9/3070.54.13.815.6-0.54.32022/10/3140.6-19.135.130.6-1.43.62022/11/3054.4-1.37.032.9-1.23.22022/12/3197.5-10.9-9.421.3-1.210.62023/1/3182.15.84.26.9-0.60.52023/2/2858.5-0.313.325.7-0.91.22023/3/3174.13.67.211.2-0.32.32023/4/3033.6-9.431.337.1-3.13.72023/5/3176.4-9.4-9.135.8-2.23.32023/6/3076.2-2.17.312.80.00.0资料来源：人民银行，二、信贷情况：信贷投放超预期，居民端低基数弱修复63.05202224002.3811.3个百分点，增速环比下降0.1个百分点。图表6：贷款余额同比增速（亿，%）2017-012017-042017-012017-042017-072017-102018-012018-042018-072018-102019-012019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-04

14.0013.5013.0012.5012.0011.5011.0010.5010.00新增人民币贷款 贷款余额同比增速（右轴）资料来源：人民银行，6522、44和2756%、26和316和15214和124，2022年同期比较居民和企业贷款均同。图表7：新增贷款同比增加（亿元）人民币贷款居民企业中长期短期居民短期居民中长期企业短期企业中长期票据融资非银机构2021/1/312,4006,359-3,1005,7572,4834,4271,957-1,9443,800-52/284,5435,55470010,585-2,2391,8133,742-4,0526,843-2,489-1,6062021/3/31-1,2001,614-4,5005,158-4,906981,501-5,0043,657-3,6001,6782021/4/30-2,300-1,386-2,0111,587-4,000-1,915529-2,0851,058-1,1991,1282021/5/31200-811-402987-2,430-575-236-1,8551,223-481,2842021/6/303,100-1,1305,313-174-860100-1,193-9601,0194,851-1,1162021/7/31905-3,5191,689-3,124-1,581-1,425-2,093-156-1,0312,7922,0442021/8/31-600-2,6601,166-3,349-2,544-1,348-1,312-1,196-2,0374,4897932021/9/30-2,400-1,721345-5,427377-175-1,695552-3,7323,985-6792021/10/311,364316766-1,761703154162549-1,9232,2842012021/11/30-1,600-197-2,133-1,698-1,293-969772-324-2,4708016782021/12/31-1,300-1,919667-2,9411,058-985-8342,043-2,107746-1212022/1/313,973-4,2708,100-1,4242,073-2,272-2,0244,3456003,1935752022/2/28-1,428-4,790400-10,5201,394-220-4,5721,614-5,9484,9071,6102022/3/314,103-3,9408,800-2,3562,947-1,394-2,5044,3411484,712-1842022/4/30-8,161-7,453-1,768-9,185-2,022-2,221-5,232199-3,9532,437-1532022/5/314,018-3,3447,243-4,3563,32034-3,3793,286-9775,591-1632022/6/306,900-2037,5255,1414,597782-9893,8156,130-1,9512502022/7/31-4,042-2,842-1,457-3,966-1,323-354-2,488-969-1,4781,365-2982022/8/31300-1,1751,7875371,454426-1,6011,0282,138-1,2222562022/9/308,100-1,3839,3705,3294,560-181-1,2114,7416,540-2,180-502022/10/31-2,110-4,8271,525-1,456-2,493-938-3,889-1,5552,4337455572022/11/30-600-4,7103,158232-1,643-992-3,718-6513,950-562652022/12/312,700-1,9636,0177,024368-270-1,6936388,717-2,941-5642023/1/319,227-5,85813,2008,8074,335-665-5,1935,00014,000-5,9158322023/2/285,9285,4503,7007,3705,8034,1291,3221,6746,048-4,041-1,6172023/3/317,4974,9082,2009,8654,9722,2462,6132,7267,252-7,874752023/4/30649-2411,0553,1751,450601-8428494,017-3,8687552023/5/31-5,418784-6,7422,784-2,144148637-2,2922,147-6,7091432023/6/302,4001,1576871,8991,1756324635431,436-1,617-306资料来源：人民银行，图表8：剔除非银和票据的新增贷款情况（亿元）剔除非银的新增贷款剔除非银和票据的新增贷款剔除非银比去年同期剔除非银和票据比去年同期2021/1/3137,79239,1972,8257,8262021/2/2813,42015,2756,1498,6382021/3/3127,57029,095-2,8787222021/4/3013,16810,457-3,428-2,2292021/5/3114,37612,838-1,084-1,0362021/6/3023,10620,3594,216-6352021/7/319,0587,287-1,139-3,9312021/8/3112,88110,068-1,393-5,8822021/9/3017,48016,127-1,721-5,7062021/10/317,6796,5191,163-1,1212021/11/3013,06411,459-2,278-3,0792021/12/3110,7476,660-1,179-1,9252022/1/3141,19039,4023,3982052022/2/2810,3827,330-3,038-7,9452022/3/3131,85728,6704,287-4252022/4/305,16012-8,008-10,4452022/5/3118,55711,4284,181-1,4102022/6/3029,75628,9606,6508,6012022/7/315,3142,178-3,744-5,1092022/8/3112,92511,334441,2662022/9/3025,63026,4578,15010,3302022/10/315,0123,107-2,667-3,4122022/11/3012,19910,650-865-8092022/12/3114,01112,8653,2646,2052023/1/3149,58553,7128,39514,3102023/2/2817,92718,9167,54511,5862023/3/3139,27943,9667,42215,2962023/4/305,0543,774-1063,7622023/5/3112,99612,576-5,5611,1482023/6/3032,46233,2832,7064,323注：非银贷款包含非银同业拆借，不稳定性较大，因而剔除非银来看票据对新增信贷的贡献来源：人民银行，21季度冲量，2季度4、5月有所回落：223691.22万亿，企业中长期贷款多增7600亿元。图表9：历年2季度新增贷款结构情况（亿元）60,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000-10,000--10,0002020 2021 2022 2023来源：人民银行，+618消费需656月提前还款率有所6月居49144630632亿和4636LPR615933，7449和-82120221436，543和-1617、非银信贷19622022306亿。图表10：新增贷款结构占比居民企业中长期短期居民短期居民中长期企业短期企业中长期票据融资非银机构2021/1/3135.571.283.425.29.226.416.157.0-3.9-5.62021/2/2810.488.2111.1-1.4-19.830.218.480.9-13.61.32021/3/3142.058.671.632.919.222.913.748.7-5.6-1.02021/4/3035.951.478.4-12.12.533.5-14.644.918.410.42021/5/3141.553.773.07.712.029.5-4.343.510.34.22021/6/3041.068.863.831.116.524.314.639.513.0-9.02021/7/3137.540.082.3-23.00.836.7-23.845.616.316.42021/8/3147.257.177.72.812.334.9-9.442.723.1-5.62021/9/3047.559.170.030.419.428.111.041.98.2-5.32021/10/3156.237.577.61.75.251.1-3.526.514.07.12021/11/3057.844.772.715.211.945.83.226.912.6-2.92021/12/3132.958.661.5-7.91.431.5-9.330.036.24.92022/1/3121.284.571.527.92.518.725.452.84.5-3.62022/2/28-27.7101.937.79.9-23.9-3.833.841.525.114.72022/3/3124.079.054.738.012.311.925.842.810.1-1.42022/4/30-33.288.535.8-58.2-28.4-4.8-29.840.678.721.12022/5/3115.280.534.723.69.75.513.929.237.52.42022/6/3030.278.766.439.815.214.824.651.62.8-5.92022/7/3117.942.472.8-56.2-4.021.9-52.250.946.221.72022/8/3136.670.080.114.415.421.3-1.058.812.7-3.42022/9/3026.377.668.638.912.314.026.654.6-3.3-3.82022/10/31-2.975.280.5-38.3-8.35.4-30.075.131.018.52022/11/3021.773.078.32.34.317.4-2.060.912.8-0.82022/12/3112.590.399.8-3.8-0.813.3-3.086.58.2-0.12023/1/315.295.576.031.50.74.630.871.4-8.4-1.22023/2/2811.589.066.138.76.74.832.061.3-5.51.02023/3/3132.069.469.543.515.716.327.853.2-12.0-1.02023/4/30-33.595.176.7-32.7-17.5-16.1-15.392.817.829.72023/5/3127.062.969.017.214.612.42.656.63.14.42023/6/3031.674.867.440.516.115.224.452.2-2.7-6.4资料来源：人民银行，6月、76103024.042.0（21.142.87图表大城市商房月均成交面积（平米） 图表12：30大中城市品房月均成交面积万方米）40.00

80.0030.00 60.0020.00 40.0010.00 20.000.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 122018 2019 20202021 2022 2023

0.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011122018 2019 20202021 2022 2023来源：， 来源：，三、M2、M1同比增速下降M2和M1M1下降更快，M2-M1剪刀差扩大，6M0M1M29.8%3.1%+0.2、-1.6和-0.3M2-M18.2%，增1.3图表13：M2及M1同增速（%） 图表14：M2与M1增差（%）25.0020.0015.0010.005.002017-012017-052017-012017-052017-092018-012018-052018-092019-012019-052019-092020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012023-05-5.00

15.0010.005.002017-012017-062017-012017-062017-112018-042018-092019-022019-072019-122020-052020-102021-032021-082022-012022-062022-112023-04-5.00-10.00M2 M1

-15.00

M2增速-M1增速来源：人民银行， 来源：人民银行，存款同比增105月缩小066月新增存款1.12致。企业的存款规模均大幅提升，今年6月居民和企业存款分别增长2.67万亿和2.06万亿元，在去年的高基数下分别增长1997亿和减少8709亿。财政存款支出持续，存款同比少增，今年6月财政存款减少1.05万亿，较上年同期多减6129亿致。非银存款6月减少3320亿元，同比少减2195亿元。图表15：存款余额同比增速（亿，%）2017-012017-042017-012017-042017-072017-102018-012018-042018-0