ITF+2023交通运输展望

I

TFTranspor

t

Outlook2023SummaryThis

isasummary

version

ofITF

TransportOutlook

2023.Download

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ITF

(2023),“ITF

Transport

Outlook

2023:Summary”,OECD

Publishing,

Paris.2ITF

Transport

Outlook

2023©OECD

2023IntroductionEvery

two

years,theInternationalTransportForum(ITF)

publishestheITF

Transport

Outlook,whichprovidesanoverviewof

currenttrendsandfutureprospectsfor

theglobaltransportsectorbasedonits

in-housetransportmodels.This

edition

ofthe

ITF

TransportOutlookfocuses

on

how

the

global

transport

sectorcan

meet

the

ambition

toreduce

carbon

dioxide

(CO

)emissions

in

line

with

the

Paris2Agreement

between

now

and

2050.Usingthe

ITF’s

in-house

global

transport

models,it

projects

the

potential

effects

oftwo

specific

policy

scenarios:

aCurrent

Ambitionscenario

and

aHigh

Ambition

scenario.The

Current

Ambition

scenario:Projecting

the

impact

of

existingcommitmentsThe

Current

Ambition

scenario

provides

insights

intohow

transport

demand

andemissions

could

evolve

over

the

coming

decades

if

transport

policy

continues

alongits

current

path.

Itreflects

ageneral

recognition

that

the

transport

sector

needstodecarbonise

and

takes

intoaccountexisting

policies

and

forthcoming

policycommitments

in

national

and

regional

governance

directives,

government

strategiesand

laws.The

Current

Ambition

scenario

also

reflects

the

reality

that

many

decarbonisationplans

areprogressing

slowly

and

will

be

even

slower

in

terms

ofworldwideimplementation.

This

scenario

accounts

for

the

early

actions

that

have

been

takentotranslate

existing

ambitions

intoaction.

However,the

scale

ofthese

actions

variesgreatly

from

region

toregion.The

measures

in

the

Current

Ambition

scenario

include

policies

or

technologicaldevelopments

aimed

at

replacing

internal

combustion

engine

(ICE)

vehicles;

demandmanagement

and

encouraging

mode

shift;

investment

in

attractive

and

sustainablealternatives

tothe

private

car;

and

improving

efficiency

and

operations

toreducecarbon

intensity.The

High

Ambition

scenario:The

necessary

pathway

to

decarbonisationThe

High

Ambition

scenario,

by

contrast,

looks

at

the

impact

ofadopting

moreambitious

policies

todecarbonise

the

transport

sector.Ittakes

the

Current

Ambitionpolicies

and

imagines

apolicy

pathway

with

accelerated

implementation

timelines,or

increased

scales.

Itfactors

in

the

impacts

ofbolder

policies

aimed

at

encouragingmore

sustainable

developments

and

travel

behaviour.The

High

Ambition

scenario

also

takes

intoaccountthe

scale

ofambition

set

bythe

goals

ofthe

2030

Breakthroughs

for

the

global

transport

sector.The

2030Breakthroughs

include

ambitious

targets

for

ending

new

sales

ofICEvehicles

for

bothpassenger

and

freight

road

fleets,

the

rollout

ofsustainable

aviation

fuels

and

theuptake

ofzero-emission

fuels

for

maritime

shipping.ITF

Transport

Outlook

2023©OECD

20233Executive

summaryPolicy

makers

play

acrucial

role

in

breaking

the

link

betweentransport

demand

and

emissions.

They

must

use

the

tools

attheir

disposal

toensurezero-

and

low-carbon

technologiesand

fuels

scale

up

tobecome

cost-competitive.

For

road

andThiseditionof

theITF

TransportOutlook

examinestheimpacts

ofdifferentpolicymeasures

onglobal

rail

transport,

low-

and

no-carbon

technologies

require

large-transportdemandandcarbonscale

rollout.

For

the

maritime

and

aviation

sectors,

developingsustainable

and

affordable

fuels,

in

sufficient

quantities,

will

becrucial

todecarbonising

in

the

long

term.dioxide

(CO

)emissionsto

2050.2Theanalysiscoverspassengerandfreightactivity

acrossalltransportmodes.It

placesaparticularfocusontransportpoliciesthatmakePublic

transport

and

mass

transit

offer

great

opportunities

toadvance

zero-emission

travel.

But

an

integrated

mixture

oftransport

modes

–including

ridesharing,

shared

vehicles

andinfrastructure

for

walking

and

cycling

–will

be

essential.

Withbolder

policies,

mode

sharefor

private

motorised

vehicles

incitiesmoreliveable.Asecondfocus

urban

areasfalls

from

49%

in

2019

to36%

in

2050,as

mostpassenger

travel

switches

tosustainable

modes.

Outside

urbanis

oninfrastructureinvestmentdecisionsandwhatdifferentpolicyscenariosmeanfor

them.As

athirdfocus,thereportexploresregionaldifferences

in

policyimpacts.areas,

mode-shift

policies

will

succeed

in

specific

contexts.

Rail,in

particular,

achieves

ahigher

mode

shareunder

both

theCurrent

and

High

Ambition

scenarios.

However,roughly

50%

ofregional

trips

will

still

happen

by

passenger

car

in

2050,evenwith

ambitious

policies.International

and

intercity

travel

rely

on

carbon-intensivetransport

modes.

Aviation

alone

accounts

for

nearly

half

(47%)ofinternational

and

intercity

passenger-kilometres.

Long-distancetrips

areparticularly

hard

todecarbonise

for

both

passengerand

freight.

Making

these

trips

more

sustainable

withoutreducing

travel

will

require

reducing

the

carbon

intensity

ofthetravel.BackgroundThe

report

analyses

two

policy

scenarios

for

the

future

oftransport,

using

the

ITF’s

in-house

transport

models.

TheCurrent

Ambition

scenario

assumes

policies

todecarbonisetransport

continue

along

their

current

pathway

and

considersFreight

mode

choice

ismostly

unresponsive

topricingmeasures.

The

exceptions

areroad

and

port

access

modesin

multimodal

trips.

Coherentpricing

policies

can

ensurethat

the

most

sustainable

ofthe

viable

modes

arechosen.Carbon

pricing

can

encourage

amove

away

from

the

mostcarbon-intensive

fleets

and

makelow-carbon

fuels

more

cost-competitive.the

implications

for

transport

demand,

CO

emissions

and2further

aspects

over

the

next

three

decades.

The

HighAmbition

scenario

assumes

policies

focused

on

accelerating

thedecarbonisation

ofthe

transport

sector

and

their

impact.FindingsTime

isrunning

out

tomeet

the

Paris

Agreement

goal

tolimit

global

warming

to“well

below”

2degrees

Celsiusabovepre-industrial

levels.

Despite

efforts

by

some

regions

todecarbonise,

transport

emissions

will

not

fall

fast

enough,

astransport

demand

will

growin

the

years

tocome.By

2050,passenger

demand

will

increase

by

79%

under

the

CurrentAmbition

scenario

and

freight

demand

will

roughly

double.Under

the

High

Ambition

scenario,

the

equivalent

increases

are65%and

59%.Regardless

ofthe

pathway

chosen,

the

transport

system

willrequire

significant

investment

in

the

coming

decades.

Coreinfrastructure

investment

needs

tomeet

projected

demand

areestimated

at

1.7%

ofglobal

GDP

annually

through

to2050underthe

Current

Ambition

scenario,

and

marginally

less

(1.6%)

underthe

High

Ambition

scenario.

However,the

rollout

ofelectricvehicle

charging

networks,

which

isessential

for

electric

vehicleuptake,

will

require

significant

additional

investment.4ITF

Transport

Outlook

2023©OECD

2023Policy

recommendationsDevelop

comprehensivestrategies

for

future

mobilityand

infrastructureImplement

mode

shift

anddemand-management

policieswhere

they

are

most

effectiveTo

ensure

increased

transport

activity

is

as

sustainable

aspossible,

governments

should

change

their

approach

toplanning.

Instead

of

providing

infrastructure

as

areactionto

predicted

demand,

the

“decide

and

provide”

approachinvests

ininfrastructure

inavision-led

way,with

aview

toachieving

certain

public

policy

objectives.

This

approachis

not

necessarily

costlier:

core

infrastructure

investmentneeds

could

be

lower

if

ambitious

decarbonisation

policiesare

implemented

now.Measures

that

reduce

trips

and

travel

distances,

andencourage

the

use

of

more

sustainable

modes,

workwell

incities

but

are

not

always

feasible

elsewhere.

Somecountries

can

expect

to

shift

regional

and

short-distanceintercity

and

international

travel,

to

rail,

and

should

pursuethis

where

feasible.

Mode-shift

policies

will

makelittleimpact

on

longer-distance

travel,

as

long-haul

airtripsare

difficult

to

replace,

for

instance.

Here,

transitioning

tolower-emitting

vehicles

and

fuels

should

be

the

priority.Accelerate

the

transitionto

clean

vehicle

fleetsConsider

the

additionalbenefits

for

urban

areaswhen

evaluating

policiesNew

vehicle

technologies

and

alternative

fuels

are

crucialfor

decarbonising

transport.

Accelerating

the

transitiontowards

cleaner

vehicles

and

fuels

requires

targetedpolicy

support

with

clear,ambitious

objectives

andsupport

measures.

Incentives

to

accelerate

zero-emissionpassenger

vehicle

use

should

not

disadvantage

citizens

onlower

incomes.

Alternative

fuels

and

vehicle

technologiesrely

on

enabling

infrastructure

(e.g.electric

chargingnetworks

and

refuelling

sites),

which

will

require

additionalinvestment.Many

policies

to

decarbonise

urban

mobility

haveadditional

positive

impacts.

Measures

that

reduce

cardependency

in

cities

and

improve

sustainable

transportoptions,

for

instance,

can

makemobility

more

affordableand

improve

access.

They

can

also

reduce

congestion,

freeupurban

space

and

improve

health

outcomes

by

reducingcrash

risks

for

cyclists

and

pedestrians

and

limiting

airpollutants

from

road

traffic.Reform

vehicle

taxation

tocapture

external

costs

ofnew

vehicle

fleetsGovernment

revenues

from

fuel-excise

duties

will

continueto

fall

as

vehicle

efficiency

improves

and

the

transition

tozero-emission

vehicles

accelerates.

This

will

makethemless

effective

as

apolicy

lever

to

encourage

sustainablebehaviours.

Efficient

road

pricing

would

mitigatethe

impact

of

diminishing

revenues

from

fuel

duties.Congestion

charging

can

also

help

capture

the

externalcosts

of

road

use

more

fairly

over

time

and

encouragemore

sustainable

travel

and

transport

choices.ITF

Transport

Outlook

2023©OECD

202351.

The

outlook

for

transport:Speedy

recovery,

new

uncertaintiesKey

takeawaysGlobaldisruptionshavehinderedthetransportsector’s

post-pandemicrecoveryThe

transport

sector’srecovery

followingthepandemichasbeen

fasterthanexpected

butsignificantchallengesremain.The

Covid-19pandemic

led

governments

worldwide

tointroduce

lockdowns

andrestrictions

on

travel

and

movement

in

2020-22.These

actions

profoundly

affected

theglobal

transport

sector,which

hasnevertheless

bounced

back

quicker

than

expected.Policy

responses

have

also

moved

on.

Some

measures,

such

as

travel

restrictions,

haveended.

Others,

such

as

investment

in

active

travel,

have

become

more

mainstream

inseveral

regions.However,in

2022,just

as

the

post-Covid

recovery

gained

momentum,

the

warin

Ukraine

brought

untold

destruction

and

human

suffering.

The

war

hasbeenaccompanied

by

an

energy

crisis

and

widespread

supply-chain

disruptions.

Thesedisruptive

events

createnew

uncertainties

for

users

and

providers

oftransportworldwide,

and

their

effects

continue

tounfold

as

this

report

went

topress.Turmoil

inenergymarketsandcost-of-living

crisescomplicateefforts

todecarbonisetransport.Global

gross

domestic

product

(GDP)trends,

changing

trade

patterns,

and

thevolatility

ofenergy

prices

provide

clues

as

tothe

potential

impact

ofcurrent

events

ontransport

demand.

GDP

influences

both

freight

and

passenger

transport.

Internationaltrade

determines

freight

transport

patterns

and

demand.

Fluctuations

in

energy

pricesaffect

travel

behaviour.Uncomfortable

truths

accompany

evidence

ofthe

sector’s

recovery.

Yes,passengertravel

isbooming

now

that

restrictions

on

movement

have

ended.

Yes,new

traderoutes

have

replaced

those

closed

by

the

war

and

sanctions.

But

the

transportsector

remainsoverwhelmingly

reliant

on

fossil

fuels.

And

this

continues

tomakeitparticularly

vulnerable

toenergy

price

variability.Despitesomeprogress,transport

emissionswillnotfallfast

enoughinthecomingyearstomeet

internationalclimateobjectives.The

transport

sector’s

future

sustainability

depends,

toalarge

extent,

on

its

responsetothe

structural

crisis

created

by

global

warming.

Populations

and

economies

are

duetogrowin

the

coming

years,

meaning

freight

and

passenger

demand

will

also

increase.The

projections

for

this

report

demonstrate

that

current

commitments

toreducecarbon

emissions

areinsufficient

(seeFigure

1).Mechanismsexist

toadvancedecarbonisationgoalsbuttheyneed

tobecomemoreambitious.The

scale

ofthe

decarbonisation

challenge

isvast.

International

co-operation

toachieve

decarbonisation

goals

ismaking

progress

but

needs

toaccelerate.Thequestion

ofequity

in

meeting

climate

goals

becomes

even

more

urgent

in

this

context.For

many

governments,

balancing

national

priorities

against

the

need

tomeet

theircommitments

under

the

Paris

Agreement

remains

aserious

challenge.Governmentsfacethechallengeofbalancingmultipleprioritieswhilemeetingclimatecommitments.6ITF

Transport

Outlook

2023©OECD

2023Figure

1.

CarbondioxideemissionsundertheCurrentAmbitionandHighAmbitionscenariosNote:

Current

Ambition

(CA)

and

High

Ambition

(HA)

refer

to

the

two

main

policy

scenarios

modelled,

which

represent

two

levels

of

ambition

for

decarbonisingtransport.

IPCC

1.5˚C

represents

the

emission

levels

needed

to

limit

warming

to

1.5˚C

as

introduced

by

the

Intergovernmental

Panel

on

Climate

Change.

The

levels

werecalculated

based

on

data

sourced

from

the

International

Assessment

Modelling

Consortium.Sources:IAMC

(2019),

IAMC

1.5°C

Scenario

Explorer

hosted

by

IIASA,

https://data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/iamc-1.5c-explorer.IPCC

(2018),

Special

report:

Global

Warming

of1.5ºC,

Intergovernmental

Panel

on

Climate

Change,

Geneva,

https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15ITF

Transport

Outlook

2023©OECD

202372.

Decarbonising

transport:Scenarios

for

the

futureKey

takeawaysAs

timerunsoutto

meetclimate

goals,thecaseto

accelerate

actionis

undeniableTransportis

centraltoeconomicdevelopmentandsocialopportunity,butitalsocontributessignificantlytoThe

transport

sector

isasignificant

part

ofthe

global

economy.Itprovides

accesstoopportunities

that

contribute

tocountries’

and

individuals’

economic

and

socialwell-being.

But

transport

faces

acritical

challenge:

how

tomeet

increasing

demandtheworld’s

CO

emissions.2(seeFigure

2)

while

reducing

carbon

dioxide

(CO

)emissions.

Tacklingpoor

air

quality,2reducing

congestion

and

improving

equity

areequally

important

tasks

for

the

sectorglobally.The

transport

sector

accounts

for

23%

ofthe

world’s

energy-related

CO2

emissions.Transport

also

indirectly

contributes

toincreased

demand

for

energy.Transportinfrastructure

construction,

vehicle

manufacturing

and

fuel

production

generategreenhouse

gasemissions.

And

the

sector

locks

in

future

emissions

because

ofthelongevity

ofvehicle

fleets

and

infrastructure.Thisreport

models

two

futuretransport

demandscenariosandCO

emissionsto2050:2a

CurrentAmbitionscenarioanda

HighAmbitionscenario.This

edition

ofthe

ITF

TransportOutlookmodels

two

scenarios

for

future

transportpolicies

and

their

potential

impacts

on

demand

and

emissions

through

to2050.TheCurrent

Ambition

scenario

represents

the

business-as-usual

approach.

Itprojectsthe

potential

effects

ofexisting

commitments,

including

Nationally

DeterminedContributions

made

under

the

Paris

Agreement.Incontrast,

the

High

Ambition

scenario

assumes

policy

makers

take

acceleratedaction

todecarbonise

transport.

This

scenario

models

the

impact

ofspecific

policyobjectives,

including

providing

alternatives

toprivate

motorised

vehicles,

enhancingpublic

transport

services,

improving

walking

and

cycling

facilities,

and

improving

theefficiency

ofthe

movement

ofgoods.Overall,thescenariosshowthatcurrentpolicieswillbeginmakea

differenceovertimeata

globallevel,withtransport

CO

emissions2fallingslightlyby

2050.Some

regions’

current

efforts

will

makeadifference

over

time

and

overall

transportCO

emissions

will

fall

slightly

by

2050(seeFigure

3).However,abusiness-as-usual2approach

will

not

makeenough

difference

todeliver

against

the

Paris

Agreementgoals.

The

projections

also

show

that

the

carbon-intensity

ofpassenger

activity

fallsfaster

than

freight’s

under

the

Current

Ambition

scenario.However,

continuingonthecurrentpathwillnotmakeenoughofa

differenceforWithout

decisive

action,

the

transport

sector

will

continue

tocontribute

significantlytothe

world’s

CO

emissions.

The

need

tobreak

the

link

between

emissions

and2transport

activities

isincreasingly

urgent.

Achieving

decarbonisation

in

the

transportsector

will

require

increased

policy

ambition

and

international

co-operation.

Butsolutions

for

specific

transport

types,

and

economic

and

geographic

contexts,

will

vary.thetransport

sector’s

CO2emissionstodeliveragainsttheParisAgreementgoals.The

urgentneed

tobreakthelinkbetween

transportactivities

andemissionsrequiresincreasedambitionandmoreinternationalco-operation.8ITF

Transport

Outlook

2023©OECD

2023Figure

2.

Passengertransport

demandbyregionundertheCurrentAmbitionscenario,2019-50Note:

Figure

depicts

ITF

modelled

estimates.

Current

Ambition

(CA)

and

High

Ambition

(HA)

refer

to

the

two

main

policy

scenarios

modelled,

which

represent

two

levelsof

ambition

for

decarbonising

transport.

ENEA:

East

and

Northeast

Asia.

LAC:

Latin

America

and

the

Caribbean.

MENA:

Middle

East

and

North

Africa.

SEA:

SoutheastAsia.

SSA:

Sub-Saharan

Africa.

SSWA:

South

and

Southwest

Asia.

TAP:

Transition

economies

and

other

Asia-Pacific

countries.

UCAN:

United

States,

Canada,

Australia

andNew

Zealand.Figure

3.

PassengerandfreightemissionsundertheCurrentandHighAmbitionscenarios,2019-50Figure

depicts

ITF

modelled

estimates.

Current

Ambition

(CA)

and

High

Ambition

(HA)

refer

to

the

two

main

policy

scenarios

modelled,

which

represent

two

levels

ofambition

for

decarbonising

transport.ITF

Transport

Outlook

2023©OECD

202393.

Managing

transport

demand:Offering

attractive

choicesPolicyrecommendationsAmixof

policiesis

neededto

promotesustainablechoicesin

differentcontextsTake

a

long-term

viewofurbandevelopmentandadoptintegratedapproachestotransport

andland-useplanningtoavoidfuturesprawlingrowingcities.Demand

for

passenger

and

freight

transport

will

continue

togrowin

the

comingdecades

across

all

world

regions,

regardless

ofthe

scenario.

Without

appropriatepolicies,

unmanaged

growth

could

result

in

increased

urban

sprawl,

longer

averagetrip

distances

and

alack

ofany

meaningful

emission

reductions.International

and

intercity

passenger

travel

will

grow

fastest

under

both

scenarios,more

than

doubling

between

2019and

2050.

Urban

transport

demand

will

also

growconsiderably:

by

74%under

the

Current

Ambition

scenario

and

54%

under

the

HighAmbition

scenario

(see

Figure

4).

Meanwhile,

regional

travel

will

increase

by

only

5%Freightdemand

will

also

grow

in

both

policy

scenarios,

with

international

movements

accountingfor

the

greatest

share

of

activity,

measured

in

tonne-kilometres

(see

Figure

5).Adoptholisticsustainableurbantransport

plansthatcombineinvestment,pricingandaccessorspacerestrictions

toencouragesustainablechoices.Amix

ofpolicies

increasing

the

efficiency

ofthe

transport

system

and

ofindividualtrips

could

significantly

change

how

people

move

in

cities.

Denser

and

more

compacturban

areasincrease

the

travel

options

available

tousers,

putting

public

transport

andessential

services

within

reach.

The

total

distance

travelled

in

cities

could

fall

withoutsignificantly

reducing

the

number

oftrips

people

actually

make.Yetthis

will

require

integrating

land-use

and

transport

planning

toavoid

urban

sprawland

expand

access

tosustainable

modes.

Public

transport

will

be

at

the

heart

ofthesefuture

urban

transport

systems.

More

flexible

on-demand

services

such

as

ride-hailingand

shared

vehicles

can

complement

public

transport;

adding

them

reduces

privatemotorised

vehicle

use

more

than

investing

in

public

transport

alone.Support

multimodalandsustainabletransportnetworks.Authorities

should

combine

policies

to

discourage

private

motorised

vehicles

withinvestment

in

multimodal

transport.

These

investments

should

strengthen

links

betweenpublic

transport,

shared

mobility

and

active

mobility.

With

such

policies,

walking,

cycling

andpublic

transport

use

could

grow

in

every

world

region.

Outside

urban

areas,

opportunitiesto

shift

passenger

demand

to

more

sustainable

modes

are

heavily

influenced

by

trip

length.For

freight

transport,

authorities

and

operators

can

work

together

to

avoid

unnecessaryfreight

movements

with