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1.China'seconomy,oneofthefastest-growingeconomiesintheworldandthebiggestcontributortoglobalgrowth,grew9.9percentyear-on-yearinthefirstthreequartersofthisyear,accordingtoofficialfiguresreleasedonMonday,showingatrendofaslowdownamidthecurrentglobalfinancialcrisis.Inthethirdquarter,thegrossdomesticproduct(GDP)growthratesloweddownto9percent,thelowestinfiveyears,from10.6percentinthefirstquarter,10.1percentforthesecondquarterand10.4percentinthefirsthalfof2008.China'seconomicgrowthhasbeenonasteadydeclinesincepeakinginthesecondquarterof2007.TheslowingworldeconomypummeledbytheglobalfinancialcrisisandweakerdemandforChineseexportsoninternationalmarketsheavilyweightedontheChineseeconomy,accordingtoLiXiaochao,spokespersonfortheNationalBureauofStatistics.Anotherwidelywatchedindicator,theconsumerpriceindex(CPI)--animportantmeasureofinflation--rose4.6percentinSeptember,overthesameperiodlastyear.Thefigure,coupledwith7.1percentinJune,6.3percentinJuly,4.9percentinAugustandanearly12-year-highof8.7percentinFebruary,showstheCPIinadownwardspiral.AnalystsmainlyattributethedeclineintheCPItoamplegrainsupplyandlower-thanexpectedincomegrowthofChineseresidents,asthehousingandstockmarketstakeheavytoll,whichdentedresidents'desiretoconsume.Chinesestockshaveshednearly70percentoftheirvaluefromthelastyear'speakat6,124pointsduetoweakinvestorconfidence.ThestockmarketrosemorethantwopercentonMondayamidexpectationthegovernmentwouldunveilmoremeasurestostimulateeconomy.ThebenchmarkShanghaiCompositeIndexgained43.36pointstocloseat1,974.01points.Exports,oneofthethreemajordriversoftheChineseeconomyalongwithinvestmentandconsumption,aretakinghitfromtheglobalfinancialturmoilandeconomicslowdown.Inthefirstthreequartersexportsgrew22.3percent,4.8percentpointslowerthanthesameperiodlastyear.Fixedassetsinvestmenttotaled11.6246trillionyuan($1.66trillion)inthefirstthreequartersof2008,up27.0percentoverthesameperiodlastyear,accordingtothebureau.Thegrowthratewas0.7percentagepointshigherthanthefirsthalfofthisyear,or1.3percentagepointshigherthantheyear-earlierlevel.Anotherkeyeconomicindicator,retailsales,increasedby22percentyear-on-yearinthefirstthreequartersandclimbed23.2percentinSeptemberalone.AnalystssayChinawouldhavetofurtherstimulatedomesticconsumptioninordertopushtheeconomyforwardamidanexportslump."Chinastillhashugepotentialandleewaytoexpanddomesticconsumption,"Lisaid.Thecombinationofaneconomicslowdownandeasinginflationmaygiverisetoloudercallsforlooseningthemonetarypolicyandadoptingamoreproactivefiscalpolicy.Analystsexpectmoremonetaryeasing,buildingontwocutsininterestratesandbanks'requiredreservessincemid-September.TheStateCouncilsaidonSundayChina'seconomycanweathertheeffectsoftheglobalfinancialturmoil,butgrowthwilldeclineasbusinessprofitsandpublicrevenuesslow.InastatementattheendofanexecutivemeetingpresidedbyPremierWenJiabao,itsaidtheglobalturmoilandeconomicinstabilitywillhavea"gradual"effectonthecountry.ItsaidChina'seconomicgrowthwillslowalongwithcorporateprofitsandpublicrevenues,andascapitalmarketscontinuetofluctuate."Unfavorableinternationalfactorsandtheseriousnaturaldisastersathomehavenotchangedthebasicgrowthsituationofourcountry'seconomy,"saidthestatementpostedonagovernmentwebsite."Ourcountry'seconomicgrowthhastheabilityandvigortoresistrisks."Chinamust"adoptflexibleandcautiousmacroeconomicpolicies"tomaintainstablegrowth,thestatementsaid.TheStateCouncilsaidthatinthefourthquarter,Chinashouldfocusondevelopingtheruraleconomy,whilestrivingtocontrolinflation.GlobalFinancialCrisis:全球金融危机internationalmarket国际市场grossdomesticproduct国内生产总值consumerpriceindex消费者物价指数
housingandstockmarkets房地产和证劵市场
investorconfidence投资者信心
stimulateeconomy刺激经济easinginflation缓解通货膨胀
investmentandconsumptionmaintainstablegrowth投资和消费保持稳定增长
2.Macroeconomicsisasub-fieldofeconomicsthatexaminesthebehavioroftheeconomyasawhole,oncealloftheindividualeconomicdecisionsofcompaniesandindustrieshavebeensummed.Economy-widephenomenaconsideredbymacroeconomicsincludeGrossDomesticProductandhowitisaffectedbychangesinunemployment,nationalincome,rateofgrowth,andpricelevels.Incontrast,microeconomicsisthestudyoftheeconomicbehaviouranddecision-makingofindividualconsumers,firms,andindustries.Macroeconomicscanbeusedtoanalyzehowtoinfluencegovernmentpolicygoalssuchaseconomicgrowth,pricestability,fullemploymentandtheattainmentofasustainablebalanceofpayments.Macroeconomicsissometimesusedtorefertoageneralapproachtoeconomicreasoning,whichincludeslongtermstrategiesandrationalexpectationsinaggregatebehavior.Untilthe1930smosteconomicanalysisdidnotseparateoutindividualeconomicsbehaviorfromaggregatebehavior.WiththeGreatDepressionofthe1930s,sufferedthroughoutthedevelopedworldatthetime,andthedevelopmentoftheconceptofnationalincomeandproductstatistics,thefieldofmacroeconomicsbegantoexpand.ParticularlyinfluentialweretheideasofJohnMaynardKeynes,whoformulatedtheoriestotrytoexplaintheGreatDepression.Beforethattime,comprehensivenationalaccounts,asweknowthemtoday,didnotexist.Oneofthechallengesofeconomicshasbeenastruggletoreconcilemacroeconomicandmicroeconomicmodels.Startinginthe1950s,macroeconomistsdevelopedmicro-basedmodelsofmacroeconomicbehavior.DutcheconomistJanTinbergendevelopedthefirstcomprehensivenationalmacroeconomicmodel,whichhefirstbuiltfortheNetherlandsandlaterappliedtotheUnitedStatesandtheUnitedKingdomafterWorldWarII.Thefirstglobalmacroeconomicmodel,WhartonEconometricForecastingAssociatesLINKproject,wasinitiatedbyLawrenceKleinandwasmentionedinhiscitationfortheNobelMemorialPrizeinEconomicsin1980.Macroeconomics宏观经济学Pricestability价格稳定balanceofpayments国际收支平衡表individualeconomicsbehavior个体经济行为productstatistics产品统计individualeconomicdecisions个体经济决策fullemployment充分就业rationalexpectations理性预期longtermstrategies长期战略microeconomicmodels微观经济模型
3.TheannualreviewofAmericancompanyboardpracticesbyKorn/Ferry,afirmof3.headhunters,isausefulindicatorofthehealthofcorporategovernance.Thisyear’sreview,publishedonNovember12th,showsthattheSarbanes-Oxleyact,passedin2002totrytopreventarepeatofcorporatecollapsessuchasEnron’sandWorldCom’s,hashadanimpactontheboardroom--albeitatanaverageimplementationcostthatKorn/Ferryestimatesat$5.1mperfirm.
Twoyearsago,only41%ofAmericanfirmssaidtheyregularlyheldmeetingsofdirectorswithouttheirchiefexecutivepresent;thisyearthefigurewas93%.Butsomethingshavebeensurprisinglyunaffectedbythebacklashagainstcorporatescandals.Forexample,despiteagrowingfeelingthatformerchiefexecutivesshouldnotsitontheircompany’sboard,thepercentageofAmericanfirmswheretheydohasactuallyedgedup,from23%in2003to25%in2004.Also,disappointinglyfewfirmshavesplitthejobsofchairmanandchiefexecutive.AnothersurveyofAmericanboardspublishedthisweek,byA.T.Kearney,afirmofconsultants,foundthatin200214%oftheboardsofS&P500firmshadseparatedtheroles,andafurther16%saidtheyplannedtodoso.Butby2004only23%overallhadtakentheplunge.AsurveyearlierintheyearbyconsultantsatMcKinseyfoundthat70%ofAmericandirectorsandinvestorssupportedtheideaofsplittingthejobs,whichisstandardpracticeinEurope.Anotherdisappointmentistheslowprogressinabolishing"staggered"boards--oneswhereonlyone-thirdofthedirectorsareupforre-electioneachyear,tothree-yearterms.Inventedasadefenceagainsttakeover,suchboards,accordingtoanewHarvard4.Thedollar'stumblethisweekwasattendedbypredictableshrinksfromthemarkets;butasitfelltoa20-monthlowof$1.32againsttheeuro,theonlyrealsurprisewasthatithadnotslippedsooner.Indeed,therearegoodreasonstoexpectitsslidetocontinue,draggingitbelowtherecordlowof$1.36againsttheeurothatithitinDecember2004.TherecentdeclinewastriggeredbynastynewsabouttheAmericaneconomy.Newfiguresthisweeksuggestedthatthehousingmarket'stroublesarehavingawiderimpactontheeconomy.Consumerconfidenceanddurable-goodsordersbothfellmoresharplythanexpected.Incontrast,Germanbusinessconfidencehasrisentoa15-yearhigh.TherearealsomountingconcernsthatcentralbanksinChinaandelsewhere,whichhavebeenpilingupdollarsassiduouslyforyears,maystartselling.So,contrarytopopularperceptions,America'seconomyhasnotsignificantlyoutperformedEurope'sinrecentyears.Since2000itsstructuralbudgetdeficit(afteradjustingfortheimpactoftheeconomiccycle)haswidenedsharply,whileAmericanhouseholds'savingratehasplunged,causingthecurrent-accountdeficittoswell.Overthesameperiod,theeuro-areaeconomiessawnofiscalstimulusandhouseholdsavingbarelybudged.Yetcyclicalfactorsonlypartlyexplainwhythedollarhasbeenstrong.Atbottom,itsattractivenessisbasedmoreonstructuralfactors---or,moreaccurately,onanillusionaboutstructuraldifferencesbetweentheAmericanandEuropeaneconomies.Themainreasonforthedollar'sstrengthhasbeenthewidespreadbeliefthattheAmericaneconomyvastlyoutperformedtheworld'sotherrichcountryeconomiesinrecentyears.Butthefiguresdonotsupportthehypothesis.Sure,America'sGDPgrowthhasbeenfasterthanEurope's,butthatismostlybecauseitspopulationhasgrownmorequicklytoo.Officialfiguresofproductivitygrowth,whichshouldintheorybeanimportantfactordrivingcurrencymovement,exaggerateAmerica'slead.Ifthetwoaremeasuredonacomparablebasis,productivitygrowthoverthepastdecadehasbeenalmostthesameintheeuroareaasithasinAmerica.Evenmoreimportant,thelatestfiguressuggestthat,whereasproductivitygrowthisnowslowinginAmerica,itisacceleratingintheeurozone.America'sgrowth,thus,hasbeendrivenbyconsumerspending.Thatspending,supportedbydwindlingsavingandincreasedborrowing,isclearlyunsustainable;andtheconsequenteconomicandfinancialimbalancesmustinevitablyunwind.Asthathappens,thecountrycouldfaceaprolongedperiodofslowergrowth.AsforEurope,theoldcontinentishobbledbyinflexibleproductandlabormarkets.Butthat,paradoxically,isanadvantage:itmeanstheplacehasalotofscopeforimprovement.SomeEuropeancountriesarebeginningtocontemplate(and,toalimitedextent,undertake)economicreforms.Iftheypushahead,theirgrowthcouldactuallyspeedupoverthecomingyears.Onceinvestorsspotthis,theyarelikelytoconcludethattheeuroisabetterbetthanthedollar.dollar'stumble美元下跌durable-goods耐用商品popularperceptions流行观点
structuralbudget结构性预算current-accountdeficit现有项目赤字currencymovement资本流通comparablebasis可比基础consumerspending消费性开支financialimbalances财政失衡inflexibleproduct缺乏弹性的产品labormarkets劳力市场
5.Atitsheart,logisticsdealswithsatisfyingthecustomer.Thisimpliesthatmanagementmustfirstunderstandwhatthoserequirementsarebeforealogisticsstrategycanbedevelopedandimplementedtomeetthem.Customerserviceisthemostimportantoutputofanorganization’slogisticssystem.Inamorepracticalsense,logisticsreferstothesystematicmanagementofthevariousactivitiesrequiredtomovebenefitsfromtheirpointofproductiontothecustomer.Oftenthesebenefitsareintheformofatangibleproductthatmustbemanufacturedandmovedtotheuser;sometimesthesebenefitsareintangibleandareknownasservices.Theytoomustbeproducedandmadeavailabletothefinalcustomer.Butlogisticsencompassesmuchmorethanjustthetransportofgoods.Theconceptofbenefitsisamultifacetedonethatgoesbeyondtheproductorserviceitselftoincludeissuesregardingtiming,quantity,supportingservices,locationandcost.Soabasicdefinitionoflogisticsisthecontinuousprocessofmeetingcustomerneedsbyensuringtheavailabilityofthefightbenefitsfortherightcustomer,inthequantityandconditiondesiredbythatcustomer,atthetimeandplacethecustomerwantsthem,allforapricethebuyeriswillingtopay.Theseconceptsapplyequallywelltofor-profitindustriesandnon-profitorganizations.However,logisticscanmeandifferentthingstodifferentorganization.Somefirmsaremoreconcernedwithproducingthebenefits:theirmanagementfocusisontheflowofrawmaterialsintotheproductionprocessratherthanondeliveringthefinalgoodstotheuser.Somecompaniesaremuchmoreconcernedwiththeflowoffinishedgoodsfromtheendoftheproductionlinetothecustomer.Logisticsinthissituationissometimesreferredtoasphysicaldistribution.Finally,somefirmsviewlogisticsasembracingbothmaterialmanagementandphysicaldistributiontasksintoasinglesupplychainthatlinksthecustomerwithallaspectsofthefirm,sometimesitisreferredtoassupplychainmanagement.
logisticsstrategy物流战略
tangibleproduct有型产品continuousprocess连续过程
finalgoods最终产品physicaldistribution物资调运singlesupplychain单一供应链supplychainmanagement连锁供应管理系统GlobalhousepricesHometruthsOurlatestround-upshowsthatmanyhousingmarketsarestillinthedumpsTHEhouse-priceboomthatprecededthefinancialcrisiswasremarkableforitsscopeandscale.Withaveryfewexceptions,thereseemedonlyonewayforpricestogo:up.Thingshavebeenmorediversesince,andourlatestreviewofhousepricesisapicturewithdramatic
chiaroscuro.AbrighteningoutlookforAmericastandsoutagainstthedarkeningtonesofthebeleagueredeconomiesontheperipheryoftheeuroarea.Inthecountrieswetrack,housepricesarerisingandfallinginequalnumbers.OverthepastyearpriceshavejumpedmostinHongKong(seetable),promptingfurthergovernmenteffortstocoolthemarket.Theyhavedroppedby9.3%inSpain,theheaviestfaller.Theoveralltrendisdown,however,sinceinthreeofthecountrieswherepricesarerisingtheyaredoingsoataslowerpacethanayearago—inCanada,forexample,theyareupby3.3%comparedwith7.1%12monthsago.Asimilardiversitycharacterisesvaluations.Togaugewhetherhomesarecheaporexpensiveweusetwomeasures,bothofwhichcomparecurrentestimateswithalong-runaverage(inmostcountries,goingbackto1975).Thisaverageisourbenchmarkfor“fairvalue”.Thefirstgaugeisaprice-to-rentsratio.Thisisanalogoustotheprice-earningsratiousedforequities,withtherentsgoingtopropertyinvestors(orsavedbyhomeowners)equivalenttocorporateprofits.Themeasuredisplaysamassiverange,fromawhopping78%overvaluationinCanadatoanundervaluationof37%inJapan.Theothermeasure,theratioofpricestodisposableincomeperperson,stretchesfroma35%overvaluationinFrancetoa36%undervaluation,againinJapan.America’shousing-marketrevivallookssustainableinpartbecausethesharpcorrectioninhousepricesoverthepastfewyearshasmadehomescheapbyhistoricalstandards.Ayearagohousepriceswerestillfalling,by3.6%.Therehasbeenaturnaroundsince:thelatestdatashowpricesrisingby4.3%.Butbasedontheratioofpricestorents,housesarestill7%undervalued;judgedbytheprice-to-incomeratio,theyare20%belowfairvalue.Italsohelpsthatmortgageratesareathistoriclowsandarelikelytostaythatway,sincetheFederalReservehaspromisedtokeepanextremelyloosemonetarystanceforthenextcoupleofyears.HomeownersmaybecomingupforairinAmerica,buttheirplightisdeepeningacrossmuchofEurope.TheagonyismostacuteinSpain,wheredeclineshavegatheredmomentum(the9.3%fallinourlatestround-upfollowsadropof5.5%thepreviousyear).Otherbigeuro-zoneeconomiesarealsoheadinginthewrongdirection.InItalyandtheNetherlandsthepaceofdeclinehasquickened;inFrancepricesarenowedgingdownafterabriefrecovery.EuropeanvaluationsaremoststretchedinFrance,byasmuchas50%judgingbyrentsandby35%onthebasisofincomes.Thiscompareswitharound20%overvaluationonbothcountsinSpain,despitethepricefallstodate.Butanyhouse-pricecollapseinFranceislikelytobemodestcomparedwithSpain’s.Spain’sbustreflectsamassiveoversupplyofhousingbuiltintheconstructionboom,andanunemploymentratethatroseto26.6%inNovember,thehighestinEurope.France’sunemploymentratehasedgedupto10.5%butthatisinadifferentleaguetoSpain’s;itsbanksareinbettershapethanSpanishones,too.TheanomalyamongEurope’sbigeconomiesisGermany,wherehousepricesarerisingbyarestrained2.7%,thesamepaceasayearearlier.Thankstotheirgoodfortuneinmissingthehousingpartybeforethefinancia
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