RateintheLongRun国际金融-香港大学,WONGKaF

PricelevelsandExchangeRateintheLongRunWONGKaFu7thFebruary2001BasicmathreviewX=A/BlnX=lnA-lnBY=Y(x)dlnY/dx=dlnY/dYdY/dx=(1/Y)(dY/dx)BasicmathreviewP=P(t)dlnP/dt=dlnP/dPdP/dt=(1/P)(dP/dt)Takethechangeoft(dt)fromstos+1.dlnP/dt=[1/P(s)][P(s+1)-P(s)/1]=[P(s+1)-P(s)]/P(s)=percentagechangeinPattimes.LawofonepriceInacompetitivemarketsfreeof1.transportationcostsand2.officialbarrierstotrade(suchastariffs),identicalgoodssoldindifferentcountriesmustsellforthesamepricewhentheirpricesareexpressedintermsofthesamecurrency.Lawofonepriceimpliesexchangerate

Foranygoodisoldinbothhomeandforeigncountries PHi=(EH/F)(PFi)Hence,theimpliedexchangerateis EH/F=PHi/PFiAbsolutePurchasingPowerParity(AbsolutePPP)Foragivenreferencecommoditybasketsoldinboththehomeandtheforeigncountries PH

=(EH/F)(PF)Hence,theimpliedexchangerateis EH/F=PH

/PFTheimpliedexchangeratefromtheEconomist’sBigMacindexRelativePPPPricesandexchangerateschangesuchthattheratioofeachcurrency’sdomesticandforeignpurchasingpowersarepreserved.Hence, (EH/F,t-EH/F,t-1)/EH/F,t-1=H,t

-F,twheret

=(Pt-Pt-1)/Pt-1RelativePPPIfabsolutePPPdoesnotholdbecauseoffrictionsandotherfactorsandwehaveEH/F=PH

/PFwhereisaconstantthatmeasuresthedifferencefromabsolutePPP.EH/F(t)=PH

(t)/PF(t)lnEH/F(t)=ln+lnPH

(t)-lnPF(t)Takingderivativewithrespecttot:dlnEH/F(t)/dt=dln/dt+dlnPH

(t)/dt-dlnPF(t)/dtRelativePPPHence, (EH/F,t-EH/F,t-1)/EH/F,t-1=H,t

-F,twheret

=(Pt-Pt-1)/Pt-1percentagechangeinEH/F,t

=percentagechangeinPH,t

-percentagechangeinPF,tLong-runexchangeratebasedonabsolutePPP

EH/F=PH

/PFPH=MHs/L(RH,YH)PF=MFs/L(RF,YF)Monetarypolicy=moneysupplyEffectofanincreaseinhomemoneysupplyonLREH/FMHs

PHEH/FbecausePH=MHs/L(RH,YH)becauseEH/F=PH

/PFEffectofanincreaseinforeignmoneysupplyonLREH/FMFs

PFEH/FbecausePF=MFs/L(RF,YF)becauseEH/F=PH

/PFEffectofanincreaseinhomeinterestrateonLREH/FRH

PHEH/FbecausePH=MHs/L(RH,YH)becauseEH/F=PH

/PFLHbecauseL(RH,YH)InterestratecanchangeduetoreasonsotherthanmonetarypolicyForexample:technologyadvancementmayimprovetheprofitabilityofinvestmentandhencetheinterestratewillingtopaytoborrowmoneytoinvest.FactorsthatarenotalreadyexplicitbutimplicitintheL(R,Y)functionEffectofanincreaseinforeigninterestrateonLREH/FRF

PFEH/FbecausePF=MFs/L(RF,YF)becauseEH/F=PH

/PFLFbecauseL(RF,YF)EffectofanincreaseinhomeoutputonLREH/FYH

PHEH/FbecausePH=MHs/L(RH,YH)becauseEH/F=PH

/PFLHbecauseL(RH,YH)EffectofanincreaseinforeignoutputonLREH/FYF

PFEH/FbecausePF=MFs/L(RF,YF)becauseEH/F=PH

/PFLFbecauseL(RF,YF)Long-runexchangeratebasedonabsolutePPP

EH/F=PH

/PFPH=MHs/L(RH,YH)PF=MFs/L(RF,YF)EH/F=(MHs/MFs)[L(RF,YF)/L(RH,YH)]Howislong-runexchangeratedetermined?Anythingthatraises(lowers)LHlowers(raises)EH/F

Anythingthatlowers(raises)LFlowers(raises)EH/F

Anincrease(Adecrease)inMHsraises(lowers)EH/F

Anincrease(Adecrease)inMFslowers(raises)EH/F

Growthrateofmoneysupply:amathematicalderivationMoneysupplylevel:MHs(t)Growthrate:(MHs(t+1)-MHs(t))/MHs(t)

Definey(t)=ln(MHs(t))dy(t)/d(t)=dln(MHs(t))/dt=dy(t)/dMHs(t)dMHs(t)/dt=1/MHs(t)dMHs(t)/dtdt=t+1-t=1FishereffectUncoveredinterestparity: RH,t=[EH/F,t+1e-EH/F,t

]/EH/F,t

+RF,tlett+1e=(Pt+1e-Pt)/Ptandt+1=(Pt+1-Pt)/PtRelativePPP: (EH/F,t+1-EH/F,t)/EH/F,t=H,t+1

-F,t+1(EH/F,t+1e-EH/F,t)/EH/F,t=H,t+1e-F,t+1eRH,t-RF,t

=H,t+1e-F,t+1eIfMHSisgrowingatarateof

PHgrowsatarateof

becausePH=MHs/L(RH,YH)I.e.,expectH,t+1

=

or,H,t+1e=Hence,RH,t-RF,t

=H,t+1e-F,t+1e

=

ifF,t+1e=0IfMHSisgrowingatarateof

Slope=t0Log(MHS)IfMHSisgrowingatarateof

t0RHRH1IfMHSisgrowingatarateof

t0Log(PH)Slope=IfMHSisgrowingatarateof

t0Log(EH/F)Slope=IfMHSisgrowingatarateof

(+)PHgrowsatarateof

(

+)becausePH=MHs/L(RH,YH)I.e.,expectH,t+1

=(

+);or,H,t+1e=(

+)Hence,RH,t-RF,t

=H,t+1e-F,t+1e

=(

+)ifF,t+1e=0IftherateofMHSgrowthincreasesfrom

to(+)SupposeRF,t

fixedandF,t+1e=0becauseastablemonetarypolicy,forexample.RH,tincreasesbybecause

H,t+1eisexpectedtoincreaseby.Notethat,however,MHSdoesnotchangeattimet0--onlythefuturegrowthrateHence,PHhastojumpfromPH1=MHs/L(RH1,YH)toPH2=MHs/L(RH2,YH)EffectofanincreaseinthegrowthrateofMHSSlope=Slope=+t0Log(MHS)EffectofanincreaseinthegrowthrateofMHSt0RHRH1RH2=RH1+

EffectofanincreaseinthegrowthrateofMHSt0Log(PH)Slope=Slope=+EffectofanincreaseinthegrowthrateofMHSt0Log(EH/F)Slope=Slope=+ThelessonlearntismuchmoregeneralThestorywas:Achangeinmoneysupplygrowthleadstochangeinexpectedinflation.Achangeinexpectedinflationleadstoajumpininterestrate.(ThroughFisher)Ajumpininterestrateleadstoajumpinexchangerate.Moregenerally,Anythingthatcauseachangeinexpectedinflationwillleadtoajumpininterestrate.Ajumpininterestrateleadstoajumpinexchangerate.ThelessonlearntismuchmoregeneralWhatwillcauseachangeinexpectedinflation?Thereleaseofeconomicindicators(say,unemployment,GDP,interestrate,confidenceindex,etc.)maychangeourexpectationofinflation.Anyreleaseofindicatorsthatcauseachangeinexpectedinflationwillleadtoajumpinexchangerate.

EmpiricaltestPH

=(EH/F)(PF)lnPH

=lnEH/F+lnPFRegression:lnPH,t

=0+1

lnEH/F,t+2

lnPF,t+torlnPH,t

=0+1

lnEH/F,t+2

lnPF,t+3

Xt+twhereXtservesasacontrolvariable.Hypotheses:AbsolutePPPimplies0=0,1=1,2=1RelativePPPimplies0=?,1=1,2=1EmpiricalevidenceonAbsolutePPPWayoffthemark:Thepricesofidenticalcommoditybaskets,whenconvertedtoasinglecurrency,differsubstantiallyacrosscountries.EmpiricalevidenceonRelativePPPUsuallyperformspoorlyalthoughitsometimesisareasonableapproximationtothedata.Morereliableinthe1960sasaguidetotherelationshipamonginflationandnationalpricelevelsbutlesssosince1970s.WhyPPPfails?TransportcostsandrestrictionontradeMonopolisticoroligopolisticpracticesingoodsmarketsMeasuresofinflationdifferacrosscountries.Exchangeratepass-through(ERPT)Thepercentagechangeinlocalcurrencyimportpricesresultingfromaonepercentchangeintheexchangeratebetweentheexportingandimportingcountries.FullorcompleteERPTifthefollowingtwoconditionsaremet:constantmarkupsofpriceovercost(e.g.,whenindustriesareperfectlycompetitive,andmarkupsareconstantatzero)andconstantmarginalcost.Exchangeratepass-through(ERPT)Empirical: ln(pt)=a+bXt+cln(Et)+dZt+etpt:localcurrencyimportpriceXt:ameasureofexporter’scostZt:importdemandshiftersEt:theexchangerate(importer’scurrencyperunitofexporter’scurrency)TheinterpretationofcC=d[lnP]/d[lnE]={d[lnP]/dt}/{d[lnE]/dt}=%changeinP/%changeinEERPTis“full”or“complete”ifc=1andis“incomplete”ifc<1.Exchangeratepass-through(ERPT)Empirical: ln(pt)=a+bXt+cln(Et)+dZt+etEstimateofcisaround60%.Thisimpliesthat40%oftheexchangeratechangewasoffsetbychangesinthemarkup.PricingtoMarketConsideramonopolisticfirmthatsellsitsproductinncountries(I.e.,nsegmentedmarkets)Itsobjectiveistomaximizeprofit (p1,…,pn)=piqi(Eipi,vi)-C(qi(Eipi,vi),w)PricingtoMarket (p1,…,pn)=piqi(Eipi,vi)-C(qi(Eipi,vi),w) piisthepricechargedini-thmarket,inthefirm’sdomesticcurrency qi(Eipi,vi)isthedemandini-thmarket,afunctionofEipi,priceini-thforeigncurrencyandvi,somedemandshifters(say,income). Thus,piqi(Eipi,vi)isthetotalrevenueindomesticcurrency. C(qi(Eipi,vi),w)isthetotalcostofproducingqi(Eipi,vi)andwisthefactorsthatmayshiftproductioncost.PricingtoMarket (p1,…,pn)=piqi(Eipi,vi)-C(qi(Eipi,vi),w) Notethatwithoutexchangerate,Ei,theproblemisthesameasthestandardproblemofamonopolymaximizingprofitsinnsegmentedmarkets.Weshouldallknowitssolutionfrombasicmicroeconomics.PricingtoMarketTheoptimalexportpriceistheproductofthecommonmarginalcostandadestination-specificmarkup:pi=Cq[-i/(-i+1)]whereCqisthemarginalcost,iistheabsolutevalueoftheelasticityofdemandintheforeignmarketwithrespecttochangesinprice,pi.PricingtoMarketThus,pricesaredifferentacrossmarketsandarerelatedtoadestination-specificmarkupwhichisafunctionofdemandelasticity.Ifpricingtomarketbehaviordominates,PPPisunlikelytohold.Furtherreadings:Goldberg,PinelopiKoujianouandMichaelM.Knetter(1997):“GoodsPricesandExchangeRates:WhatHaveweLearned?”JournalofEconomicLiterature,Vol.XXXV(September,1997),pp.1243-1272.EmpiricaltestofFisher’sEquationRH,t-RF,t

=H,t+1e-F,t+1eH,t+1e-F,t+1e=RH,t-RF,t(H,t+1

-F,t+1)e=RH,t-RF,t(H,t+1

-F,t+1)=RH,t-RF,t+t where(H,t+1

-F,t+1)=(H,t+1

-F,t+1)e+tRuntheregression(H,t+1

-F,t+1)=+(RH,t-RF,t)+tshouldget0and

1EvidenceCumbyandObstfeld(1984)andMishkin(1984)bothrejectedthehypothesis.RealexchangerateTherealexchangeratebetweentwocountries’currenciesisabroadsummarymeasureofthepricesofonecountry’sgoodsandservicesrelativetotheother’s.qH/F

=(EH/F

PF)/PH

PF:priceofabasketofforeigngoodsinforeigncurrencyPH

:priceofadifferent

basketofhomegoodsinhomecurrencyRealExchangeRatehomegoodshomecurrencyforeigngoodsforeigncurrencyPHPFEH/FRealexchangerateqH/F

=(EH/F

PF)/PHTheunitsofhomegoodbasketperforeigngoodbasket.Therelativepriceofforeigngoodbasketintermsofhomegoodbaskets.Realdepreciation:ariseinqH/F

Factorsaffectingthelong-runrealexchangerateAchangeinrelativeoutputdemandAnincreaseinworldrelativedemandforhomeoutputcausesalong-runrealappreciationofthehomecurrencyagainsttheforeigncurrency(I.e.,afallinqH/F

)AchangeinrelativeoutputsupplyArelativeexpansionofhomeoutputcausesalong-runrealdepreciationofthehomecurrencyagainsttheforeigncurrency(I.e.,riseinqH/F

)NominalandRealexchangeratesinlong-runequilibriumqH/F

=(EH/F

PF)/PHEH/F=qH/F(PH/PF)NotethatunderAbsolutePPP,qH/F=1.ThusthefactthatqH/Fmaynotequal1allowsthepossibledeviationsfromAbsolutePPP.ThisdeviationqH/Fisanadditionaldeterminantofthenominalexchangerate.EffectofanincreaseinhomemoneysupplylevelMHs

PHEH/FbecausePH=MHs/L(RH,YH)becauseEH/F=qH/F(PH/PF)RH,YH,qH/FWhy?EffectofanincreaseinhomemoneysupplygrowthrateGrowthofMHs

YH,qH/FEH/FbecauseanominalchangehasnorealeffectbecauseEH/F=qH/F(PH/PF)RHPH=MHs/L(RH,YH)HBecauseFisher:RH,t-RF,t

=H,t+1e-F,t+1eEffectofanincreaseinworldrelativedemandforhomepdtsRelativedemandforhomepdtsEH/FbecauseEH/F=qH/F(PH/PF)qH/FEffectofanincreaseinrelativehomesupplyRelativehomesupplyEH/F?becauseEH/F=qH/F(PH/PF)qH/FLHPH=MHs/L(RH,YH)PHEH/FEH/FL(RH,YH)AninsightinthefailureofrelativePPPWhenalldisturbancesaremonetaryinnature,exchangeratesobeyrelativePPPinthelongrun.Whendisturbancesoccurinoutputmarkets,theexchangerateisunlikelytoobeyrelativePPP,eveninthelongrun(becauseqH/Fmaychangeovertime).FishereffectwithrealexchangeratemovementqH/F

=(EH/F

PF)/PH(qH/F,t+1-qH/F,t

)/qH/F,t

=(EH/F,t+1-EH/F,t)/EH/F,t+F,t+1

-H,t+1(qH/F,t+1e

-qH/F,t

)/qH/F,t

=(EH/F,t+1e-EH/F,t)/EH/F,t+F,t+1e-H,t+1eRH,t-RF,t=(qH/F,t+1e

-qH/F,t

)/qH/F,t

+H,t+1e-F,t+1ebecauseRH,t=[EH/F,t+1e-EH/F,t

]/EH/F,t

+RF,tRealinterestparityDefinere=R-erH,te-rF,te=(RH,t-H,t+1e)

-

(

RF,t-F,t+1e)rH,te-rF,te=(qH/F,t+1e

-qH/F,t

)/qH/F,t

IfrelativePPPholdsrH,te-rF,te=0I.e.rH,te=rF,te

EmpiricaltestofFisher’sEquationRH,t-RF,t

=H,t+1e-F,t+1eH,t+1e-F,t+1e=RH,t-RF,t(H,t+1

-F,t+1)e=RH,t-RF,t(H,t+1

-F,t+1)=RH,t-RF,t+t where(H,t+1

-F,t+1)=(H,t+1

-F,t+1)e+tRuntheregression(H,t+1

-F,t+1)=+(RH,t-RF,t)+tshouldget0and

1EvidenceCumbyandObstfeld(1984)andMishkin(1984)bothrejectedthehypothesis.Reason?PPPandUIPdonotholdandrealinterestparityisderivedfromthem.Wanttoknowmore...Chapter15ofKrugmanandObstfeldespeciallyforvariouscasestudiesGibson,HeatherD.(1996):INTERNATIONALFINANCE,LongmanPublishing,NewYork.Chapter2fordiscussionofempiricalevidence.谢谢观看/欢迎下载BYFAITHIMEANAVISIONOFGOODONECHERISHESANDTHEENTHUSIASMTHATPUSHESONETOSEEKITSFULFILLMENTREGARDLESSOFOBSTACLES.BYFAITHIBYFAITH一本万利工程1、背景驱动2、盈利策略3、选菜试菜4、价值创造5、完美呈现6、成功面试7、持续改造（一）、一本万利工程的背景驱动

1、什么是一本万利

2、餐饮时代的变迁菜单经验的指导方针运营市场定位的体现经营水平的体现体现餐厅的特色与水准沟通的工具餐厅对顾客的承诺菜单承诺的六大表现1、名字的承诺2、质量的承诺3、价格的承诺4、规格标准的承诺5、外文翻译的准确6、保证供应的承诺

1、顾客满意度餐厅价值、价格、合理感、愉快感、安心感、美味感、便利感、满足感、有价值感、喜悦感、特别感2-2、初期投资餐厅面积、保证金、设备投资、店铺装潢、器具用品投资、制服选定、菜单制作2-1、开业准备厨具、供应商选定、设计、用品选定、餐厅配置、员工训练、餐厅气氛、促销方式3、经营数据营业额、客流量、成本率、人均消费、顾客回头率、出品速度、人事费用菜单内容决定决定相关相关决定决定决定决定以菜单为导向的硬件投资

1、餐厅的装修风格2、硬件设施服务操作3、餐厅动线4、餐具与家俬5、厨房布局6、厨房设备菜单设计正果1、能诱导顾客购买你想让他买的餐点2、能迅速传达餐厅要表达的东西3、双赢：顾客喜欢、餐厅好卖餐厅时代的变迁食物时代硬体时代软体时代心体时代食物食品饥食饱食品质挑食品味品食品德惧食体验人们正在追寻更多的感受，更多的意义更多的体验，更多的幸福（二）盈利策略1、组建工程团队2、确定核心价值3、确定盈利目标4、确定客单价5、设计盈利策略6、确定核心产品谁来设计菜单？产品=做得出来的物品商品=卖得出去的物品商家=产品具备商品附加值物（什么产品）+事（满足顾客何种需求）从物到事从食物到餐饮从吃什么到为什么吃产品本身决定一本，产品附加值决定万利从生理到心理从物质到精神从概念到五觉体验创造产品的五觉附加值体验何来

一家企业以服务为舞台以商品为道具，让消费者完全投入的时候，体验就出现了PART01物=你的企业卖什么产品+事=能满足顾客何种需求？确定核心价值理念核心价值理念1、卖什么样的菜2、卖什么样的氛围？3、如何接待顾客？卖给谁？卖什么事？卖什么价？企业目标的设定1、理论导向的目标设定2、预算3、制定利润目标费用营业额亏损区利润区临界点变动费用总费用营业额曲线费用线X型损益图利润导向的目标设定确定目标设定营业收入=固定成本+目标利润1-变动成本率-营业税率例：A餐厅每月固定成本40万，变动成本50%，营业税率5.5%，目标利率每月8万，问A餐厅的月营业收入：月营收入=（40+8）÷（1-50%-5.5%）=48÷0.445=108万测算损益平衡点保本线=固定成本1-变动成本率-营业税率例：A餐厅保本线=40÷（1-50%-5.5%）

=40÷0.445

=90万定价的三重意义2、向竞争对手发出的信息和信号1、是利润最大化和最重要的决定因素3、价格本事是价值的体现定价由此开始1、评估产品、服务的质量2、寻求顾客价值与平衡点3、以价值定义市场确定客单价盈利占比策略

占比策略内部策略销售占比占比策略内部策略10%40%10%20%20%（三）、选菜试菜1、ABC产品分析2、产品的确定（食材、口味、烹调、餐饮）3、成本的确定ABC分析策略毛利率营业额CBACABBACCCAA营业额C毛利A优化、提升增加销售双A双赢ABC顾客商品涨价保留亏本商品删营业额A毛利C顾客超额、成本过高有意义的保留无意义的删除双C双输菜单内容选择的标准因素成本设备厨师技术操作空间菜系风格吻合度品质可控度原料供应顾客喜好菜单协议度（销售目标、颜色、口味、造型、营养等）产品类别确定的四个方面1、按食材确定比例2、按口味确定比例3、按烹饪确定比例4、按餐饮确定比例

（无酒精饮品、含酒精饮品比例）框架依据操作依据目标依据成本依据试口味成本操作第一次试菜的内容精确的成本核算—五个关键词1、净料率（一料一控、一料多档）2、调味料成本（单件产品、批量产品）3、燃料成本4、统一计量单位5、标准食谱成本卡试口味餐具造型色彩第二次试菜的内容四料构成表1、符合思想审定2、符合目标审定3