DCF估值、DDM估值、APV估值、AE估值、EVA估值模板

,一般情景预测,,,,,,,,,

,,,,,,,,,,,

,调整性现值估值,,,分析日期,2006/5/29,,,,,

,,,,,,,,,,,

,假设,数值,,,,,,,,

,第二阶段(2010-2017)年数,8,,,,,,,,

,第二阶段增长率,1.00%,,,,,,,,

,长期增长率,0.00%,,,,,,,,

,无风险利率Rf,5.00%,,,,,,,,

,β(βlevered),1.05,,,,,,,,

,Rm,10.00%,,,,,,,,

,Ke(Kelevered),10.25%,,,,,,,,

,税率,24.38%,,,,,,,,

,Vd/Ve,0.18,,,,,,,,

,无负债β(βunlevered),0.93,,,,,,,,

,无负债Ke(Keunlevered),9.63%,,,,,,,,

,,,,,,,,,,,

,1.无债务时的公司价值,,,,,,,,,

,,,,,,,,,,,

,第一阶段,2006E,2007E,2008E,2009E,2010E,,,,

,FCFF,"2,341.29","6,012.12","10,639.33","15,031.03","16,284.81",,,,

,,,,,,,,,,,

,第二阶段,2011E,2012E,2013E,2014E,2015E,2016E,2016E,2017E,

,FCFF,"16,447.66","16,612.13","16,778.25","16,946.04","17,115.50","17,286.65","17,459.52","17,634.11",

,,,,,,,,,,,

,,,,,,,,,,,

,阶段,现金流折现值（万元）,价值百分比,,,,,,,

,第一阶段,"40,773.85",24.02%,,,,,,,

,第二阶段,"65,890.21",38.82%,,,,,,,

,第三阶段（终值）,"63,062.71",37.16%,,,,,,,

,无负债时的公司价值,"169,726.77",100.00%,,,,,,,

,,,,,,,,,,,

,2.加：债务的效益,,,,,,,,,

,,,,,,,,,,,

,预期税收效益,,"2,857.39",,,,,,,

,,,,,破产概率参考（为美国公司的统计数据，来源于InvestmentValuation）,,,,,

,3.减：预期破产成本（对债务率低的公司可忽略该项）,,,,,,,,,

,,,,,债券评级,违约率,,,,

,财务评级,,B,,,,,,,

,破产的概率,,20.00%,,D,100.00%,,,,

,破产成本占无债务时公司价值的比例,,40.00%,,C,80.00%,,,,

,预期破产成本,,"13,578.14",,CC,65.00%,,,,

,,,,,CCC,46.61%,,,,

,4.经营性资产,,,,B-,30.50%,,,,

,,,,,B,26.36%,,,,

,经营性资产,,"159,006.01",,B+,19.28%,,,,

,,,,,BB,12.20%,,,,

,5.总股本价值,,,,A-,1.41%,,,,

,,,,,A+,0.40%,,,,

,加：非核心资产,,"32,315.61",,AA,0.28%,,,,

,减：债务价值,,"11,721.45",,AAA,0.01%,,,,

,减：少数股东权益,,"6,851.94",,,,,,,

,总股本价值,,"172,748.24",,财务评级可在Bloomberg中查到，评级为A－F，可参考上表估算对应的破产概率,,,,,

,股本（万股）,,"11,000.00",,,,,,,

,每股价值（元）,,15.70,,,,,,,

,,,,,,,,,,,

,,,,,,,,,,,

,,,,,,,,,,,

,,,,,,,,,,,

,,,,,,,,,,,

,敏感性测试,,,,,,,,,

,,,,,,,,,,,

,敏感性测试结果,长期增长率(g),,,,,,,,

,无负债Ke,-1.00%,-0.50%,0.00%,0.50%,1.00%,1.50%,2.00%,2.50%,3.00%

,7.50%,19.20,19.75,20.37,21.08,21.90,22.85,23.98,25.34,26.99

,8.00%,18.06,18.53,19.05,19.64,20.32,21.10,22.01,23.08,24.37

,8.50%,17.05,17.45,17.89,18.39,18.95,19.59,20.33,21.20,22.22

,9.00%,16.14,16.48,16.86,17.28,17.75,18.29,18.90,19.61,20.43

,9.50%,15.32,15.62,15.94,16.30,16.70,17.15,17.66,18.24,18.92

,10.00%,14.58,14.83,15.11,15.42,15.76,16.14,16.57,17.06,17.61

,10.50%,13.90,14.12,14.36,14.63,14.92,15.25,15.61,16.02,16.48

,11.00%,13.28,13.48,13.69,13.92,14.17,14.45,14.76,15.11,15.50

,11.50%,12.72,12.88,13.07,13.27,13.49,13.73,13.99,14.29,14.62

,12.00%,12.19,12.34,12.50,12.68,12.87,13.08,13.31,13.56,13.84

,12.50%,11.71,11.84,11.98,12.14,12.30,12.49,12.68,12.90,13.15

,,,,,,,,,,,

,,,,,,,,,,,

,指标说明：,,,,,,,,,

,

预期税收效益=税率×债务价值（前提：假设利息保持不变）,,,,,,,,,

,

预期破产成本=破产的概率×破产成本=破产的概率×破产成本占无债务时公司价值的比例×无债务时的公司价值,,,,,,,,,

,

经营性资产=无债务时的公司价值＋税收效益－预期破产成本,,,,,,,,,

,

公司价值=经营性资产＋非核心资产价值－少数股东权益,,,,,,,,,

,公司自由现金流FCFF=EBIT×（1-所得税率）＋折旧－资本支出－非现金性流动资本变化,,,,,,,,,

,,,,,