印度的电动汽车-道路上的新车轮 -Electric Vehicles inIndia -The NewWheels on the Roads VRBE

CBRE

INTELLIGENTINVESTMENT

ElectricVehiclesin

India-TheNew

WheelsontheRoads

REPORTINDIA

REALESTATE

CBRERESEARCH

JUNE2023

Contents

1.SnapshootheElectriVehicleSegmentinIndia

2.EngineeringEVGrowth

3.GovernmentPolicyEnablers

4.The'State'ofEV

ManufacturinginIndia

5.CapitalisingonEVs

6.TheRealEstatelmpact

.Annexures

1

SnapshotoftheElectricVehicle

SegmentinIndia

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WhatMakesElectricVehicles(EVs)DifferentfromNon-EVs?

Figure1.1.EVsvsnon-EVs-Acomparison

EVs

Non-EVs

Electrical

energy

(kWh)

Fuel

diesel/gas

Petrol/

(litre)

Highinthecity,lowon

highways

Fuel

Efficiency

Highon

highways,lowin

thecity

Electric

motor

Power

Internal

combustion

engine

Relativelylow

(3Xlesserthannon-

EVs")

(75g/km)*

Expensive

(1.5-2Xhigherthan

non-EVs**)

VehicleCost

Carbon

Emissions

Economical

Relativelyhigh

(upto240g/km)*

Relativelylow

(3-7Xlesserthan

non-EVs^)

(INR12-16per

kWh)

⑤

Fuel

Cost

Relatively

high

(Petrolcost-INR

95-110/litre)

Relativelylow

(2-3Xlesserthan

non-EVs)

(INR2,000-3,000

peryear)

Maintenance

Cost

Relatively

high

(INR10,000-

15,000peryear)

Available

(INR1.5-2.5lakh

subsidyonpurchase

costand100%road

taxexemption)

Tax

Benefits

Nil

Source:CBREResearch,Q22023

Note:Non-EVsincludeallconventionalvehiclesusinganinternalcombustionenginefuelledbygasolineordieseltopowerthewheels;'AsperastudybyTransport&Environment-electriccarsinEuropeemit,onanaverage,morethan3timeslessCO₂thanequivalentpetrolcars;"e.g.PurchasecostofTataTiagopetrolcarisINR6-7lakhwhileTataTiagoelectriccarcostsINR9-10lakh;^;'variesstate-wise

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Totalvehiclesregistered(mnunits)

units)

EVsGearingUpforExponentialGrowthinIndia

EVsareevolvingfromanichenoveltytoacommonsightinmosttier-lcitiesinIndia.AlthoughtheshareofEVsontheroadcomparedtonon-EVsremainsrelativelysmallatabout0.6%ofthetotalvehicles(refertofigure1.2),theiradoptionandaccessibilityhaveriseninrecentyears.ThistransitionisdrivenbytheGovernmentofIndia's(Gol)'ParisPledge-2022'for2030(referfigure1.3).

Figure1.2.VehiclecategorysplitforEVsinIndia

registered(mn

■Totalvehicles

◆ShareofEVs

Figure1.3.AsnapshotofIndia'supdatedParis

ReduceemissionintensityoftheGDPby45%by2030,fromthe2005level

Createanadditionalcarbonsinkof2.5-3bntonnesofCO₂equivalentthroughadditionalforestandtreecoverby2030

Pledge,2022

Achieve50%cumulativeelectric

powerinstalledcapacityfrom

non-fossilfuel-basedenergy

resourcesby2030

Takestepstowardsreaching

net-zeroby2070

Source:VahanDashboard(dataasofFeb2023),MinistryofRoadTransport&Highways(MoRTH),Gol,CBREResearch,Q22023

Note:Othersincludeambulances,constructionequipmentvehicles,publicsectorvehicles,goodsvehicles,specialcategory

vehicles,trailersandtractors.ThegivenpercentagesindicatetheshareofEVsintotalvehiclesalesineachofthesecategories

Source:Gol'sUpdatedFirstNationallyDeterminedContributionUnderParisAgreement(2021-2030):CBREResearch,Q22023

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TheEVDecadeinIndia:SegmenttoWitnessFurtherTractionby2030

TheEVsegmentinIndiaisexpectedtogrowexponentiallyoverthecomingyears,ledbycentralgovernmentinitiativesthatarebeingformulatedtomeettargetssuchastheParisAgreement,2015,2nd

AutomotiveMissionPlan(AMP),2016,andFasterAdoptionandManufacturingofElectricVehicles-lI(FAME-II)Scheme,2022.WhiletheParisAgreementfocusesonreducingemissionintensities,AMPaimsto

elevatetheIndianautomobileindustrytoglobalstandards;FAME-lItargetstoincreaseEVpenetrationinautomobilesalesby2030.

Figure1.4.IndianautomobilesectorandtheEVsegmentmarketforecastsfor2030

Totalnumberof

EVsonroadsin

India

40-50mn

by2030

22X

growth

2.1mnEVsasofFebruary2023

Annualsales

ofEVsinIndia

10mn

by2030

10X

growth

1mnEVssold

during2022

EVsalespenetrationtargetsunderFAMEllscheme

80%

by2030

70%

by2030

40%

by2030

30%

by2030

2Wsand3WsCommercialcarsBusesPrivatecars

EVpenetrationislessthan1%acrossallvehiclecategoriesasof2022,exceptfore-3Wwith~11%penetration

Source:InvestIndia,Gol,2022;VahanDashboard,MoRTH,Gol(dataasofFeb2023)FAME-I,Gol,2022;CBREResearch,Q22023

2

Engineering

EVGrowth

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Adaptability

Ledbyinfrastructuresupport

Affordability

Ledbylowerfuelandusagecost

Availability

Ledbygovernmentpolicies

Goltargetstoinstallmorethan

46,000EVPublicCharging

Stations(PCS)by2030*

·Minimum1PCStobeavailable

withinanareaof3kmX3km*#

·MinimumonePCSforevery25kmonbothsidesofhighwaysforalltypesofvehicles

·MinimumoneFastCharging

Station(FCS)atevery100kmonbothsidesofhighwaysforheavydutyvehicles(buses/trucks)

·Variousgovernmentpolicies

introducedtoincreaseEVproduction(refertosection3)

·Developmentandpromotionofnewmanufacturingclustersacrossthecountry

·ThesizeofEVmarketinIndiais

expectedtotouchUSD206bilionby2030ifIndiamaintainssteady

progresstomeetits2030FAME-IItargets***

·EVcostofownership(includingvehiclepurchasecosts,runningcosts,fuel,insuranceandothermaintenanceandservicecosts)isestimatedtobe10-20%lowerthananon-EVequivalentforaridershipdurationoffiveyears^.

4AsthatareExpandingtheEVEcosysteminIndia

Thewideninglensonsustainabilityhasledtoaspurtinthedemandforcleanerenergyresources-whichhasbecomeakeyfactorbehindtheexpansionoftheEVecosysteminthecountry.Further,risingpublicawarenessonenvironmentalconcerns,governmentinitiatives,infrastructurecreationandimprovingEVefficiencieshaveonlyacceleratedthepaceofthisgrowingdemand.Forfuturegrowth,CBREexpects4As-Awareness,Availability,AdaptabilityandAffordability-tobecomethekeyengineersofthissegment'sgrowth(refertofigure2.1).

Figure2.1.KeygrowthdriversoftheEVsegmentinIndia

Awareness

OfthekeybenefitsofEVs

IncreasingpublicawarenessabouttheefficiencyofEVsandtheir

environmentalbenefits

·EVscanconvertaround60%oftheelectricalenergyfromthegridtopowertheirwheels,as

comparedto17-21%energy

efficiencyofcarbon-basedfuelsinnon-EVs*

·EVsemituptothreetimes

lowerCO2thannon-EVs**

Source:CBREResearch,Q22023

Note:"Acceleratede-MobilityRevolutionforIndia'sTransportation(e-AMRIT),Gol;"*Transport&environment,2022;**'CentreforEnergyFinance(CEEW-CEF),2022;*Gol,2023;##1PCSforevery9sq.km;"CBREestimates

3Pov

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CentralPoliciesSupportingtheIndianEVEcosystem

ThegovernmentofIndiahasundertakenvariousinitiativestopromotethemanufacturingandadoptionofEVsinthecountry.Afewkeycentralpoliciesareoutlinedinfigures3.1.and3.2.

Figure3.1.AtimelineofkeyEVinitiativesannouncedbythecentralgovernment*

Jan-2013

NationalElectricMobilityMissionPlan(NEMMP)2020

-Intendedtopromotehybrid^andelectric

vehiclesinIndia

-Targetedtoachieve6-7millionsalesofhybridandelectricvehiclesannuallyby2020

Apr-2015

EAME*India-1

AnnouncedaspartofNEMMPwithanaimtoreducevehicularemissionsandairpollutionlevelsInIndia

Phase-IoftheFAMESchemewasimplemented

throughfourfocusareasnamely(1)DemandCreation,(i)TechnologyPlatform,(i)PilotProjectand(iv)ChargingInfrastructure

Phase-Iwasactiveforaperiodoffouryearsuntil2019

Dec-2018

ChargingInfrastructureforElectric

Vehicles-GuidelinesandStandards

Detailedguidelinesforcharginginfrastructureof

EVs(withreferencetotheprovisionsoftheElectricityAct,2003)

IntendedtoenablefasteradoptionofEVsby

ensuringsafe,reliable,accessibleandaffordablecharginginfrastructure

Italsofocusesonbusinessopportunitiesforsmallentrepreneurs,encouragepreparednessof

electricaldistributionsystemsandpromoteenergysecurityanddecarbonisationefforts

Mar-2019

EAME*India-Ⅱ

GolapprovedPhase-llofFAMESchemeforaperiodofthreeyearscommencingfrom1stApril2019

Intendedtogeneratedemandfor7,000e-buses,5

lakhe-3Wheelers(e-3W),55,000e-4Wpassengercars

and10lakhe-2Wheelers(e-2W)byproviding

dedicatedsubsidiestoeachcategory

Alsoproposedestablishmentof2,700charging

stationsinmetros,othermillionpluscities,smartcitiesandcitiesofhillystateswithanaimofachievingonechargingstationinagridof3kmx3km

FinancialOutlay

~INR14,000crore

FinancialOutlay

~INR895crore

Source:MinistryofHeavyIndustries(MoHD,Gol,2013,2015&2019;MinistryofPower(MoP),Gol,2018;CBREResearch,Q22023

Note:^Hybridelectricvehiclesarepoweredbyaninternalcombustionengineandoneormoreelectricmotors,whichusesenergystoredinbatteries;"FasterAdoptionandManufacturingof(Hybrid&)ElectricVehiclesinIndia;falltheincentivesmentionedabovetobealignedwiththetermsandconditionsmentionedinthecorrespondingpolicies.Pleasedickontherespectivepolicynamesformoredetails

FinancialOutlay

~INR10,000crore

^InMay2023,theGolannouncedreductioninFAMEllsubsidyfore-2Wsto

INR10,000/kWhfromINR15,000/kWh.Italsoslashedthemaximum

subsidycapfore-2Wto15%from40%ofthepurchasecostforvehiclesregisteredonorafterJune1,2023

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CentralPoliciesSupportingtheIndianEVEcosystem

Figure3.2.AtimelineofkeyEVinitiativesannouncedbythecentralgovernment#

Mar-2021

DraftVehicleScrappingPolicy

Intendedtophaseoutoldpassengerand

commercialvehiclesandtherebyreduceurbanairpollution,increasepassengerandroad

safetyandstimulatevehiclesales

Commercialandprivatevehiclesolderthan15and20years,respectively,shallbescrappedif

theyfailfitnesstests

Vehiclemanufacturersarealsoadvisedto

provideadiscountof5%onthepurchaseofanewvehicleagainstthescrappingcertificate

Jun-2021

PLI*SchemeforAdvancedChemistryCell(ACC)BatteryStorage

FY2022-23toFY2026-27

-AimstoenhanceIndia'smanufacturing

capabilitiesandexportsofACCs

Focusesonachievingmanufacturingcapacityof50GigaWattHour(GWh)ofACCs

CustomsdutyleviedonLiBreducedfrom21%to13%inUnionBudget2023-24

FinancialOutlay

~INR18,100crore

Sep-2021

PLI*SchemeforAutomobileandAutoComponentIndustry

FY2022-23toFY2026-27

-Proposedfinancialincentivestoboostdomestic

manufacturingofAdvancedAutomotive

Technology(AAT)productsandattract

investmentsintheautomotivemanufacturingvaluechain

Provides18%capitalsubsidytoencouragefreshinvestmentsinthesupplychainofAATproducts

FinancialOutlay

~INR26,000crore

Mar-2019

DraftBatterySwappingPolicy

Intendedtopromotetheadoptionofbattery

swappingtechnologyimplementedviaBaaS*#

businessmodelswhichwillensurelower

upfrontcosts,minimaldowntime,andlower

spacerequirements.

Alsoproposedtoofferincentivesandsubsidies

toEVswithswappablebatteries

Note-Batteryswappingisanalternativewhich

involvesexchangingdischargedbatteriesfor

chargedones

Source:MoRTH,Gol,2021;MHl,Gol,2021;UnionBudget2023-24,MinistryofFinance,Gol,2023;NITIAayog,2022;CBREResearch,Q22023

Note:"ProductionLinkedIncentive;#alltheincentivesmentionedabovetobealignedwiththetermsandconditionsmentionedinthecorespondingpolicies.Pleaseclickontherespectivepolicynamesformoredetails;##BatteryasaService

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State-levelPoliciesPromotingInvestmentActivity

Inadditiontothecentralgovernmentschemes,variousstategovernmentshavetakeninitiativestointroducededicatedEVpolicies.Thesestateshaveannouncedseveralsupportingincentivesandregulatory

frameworks,asdepictedinfigure3.3.

Figure3.3.Asnapshotofstate-wiseEVpoliciesandincentives

DelhiElectricVehiclesPolicy,2020

RajasthanElectricVehiclePolicy,2022

GujaratStateElectric

VehiclePolicy,2021

MaharashtraStateElectricVehicle

Policy,2021

KarnatakaElectricVehicleandEnergyStoragePolicy,2017

UttarPradeshElectricVehicle

Manufacturing&MobilityPolicy,2022

AssamElectricVehiclePolicy,2021

TelanganaElectricVehicleandEnergy

StoragePolicy,2020

AndhraPradeshElectricMobilityPolicy,2018

LEGEND

Land-relatedincentives

Capitalsubsidies

Stampdutyexemptions

Taxbenefits

Infrastructureconcessionsandsubsidies

Charginginfrastructure

development

Batteryrecyclinginitiatives

Skilldevelopment/employment-relatedincentives

●

R&Dgrants/initiatives

Notified

Source:Respectivestategovernmentwebsites;CBREResearch,Q22023

TamilNaduElectricVehiclePolicy,2023

●Draft

KeralaElectricVehiclePolicy,2019

Note:Inafewcases,thoughthepoliciesdonotdirectlymentionaboutaparticularincentive,anindicationofindirectinitiativeshavebeenconsidered.

Alltheincentivesmentionedabovetobealignedwiththetermsandconditionsmentionedinthecorrespondingpolicies.Pleaseclickontherespectivepolicynamesformoredetails.

The'State'ofEV

4

Manufacturingin

India

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vo.ofregisteredvehiclesales("ooounits)

EVpenetrationrate(%)

TheIndianEVMarketin

2022

In2022,India'sEVsalesexceededonemillionunits,agrowthofmore

than200%onanannualbasis(refertofigure4.2.).E-2WscontinuedtodominateIndianEVsaleswithashareofabout62%,followedbye-3Ws(34%).TheIndianEVmarketisexpectedtogrowataCompounded

AnnualGrowthRate(CAGR)ofabout49%between2021and2030,withannualsalescrossing17millionunitsby2030*.

*InvestIndia,Gol,2022

Figure4.1.Fuel-wisesalestrends(2018-2022)

NG■DieselElectricPetrolOthers——EVspenetrationrate(%)

Source:VahanDashboard,MoRTH,Gol,CBREResearch,Q22023

Note:E-3Wincludesgoodsandpassengervehicles;E-CarincludesLightMotorVehicles;E-Bus:includesHeavyMotor&PassengerVehicles;OthersincludeFourWheeler(InvalidCarriage),HeavyGoodsVehicles,LightGoods&PassengerVehiclesandMediumMotor,Goods&PassengerVehicles;EVregisteredsalesdataduringJan-Dec2022,collectedfromRTOsacross34outof36states&UTsinIndia

Source:VahanDashboard,MoRTH,Gol,2022;CBREResearch,Q22023

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UttarPradesh,MaharashtraandKarnatakaledIndia'sEVsalesin2022

EVmanufacturersandmultiplee-mobilitystart-upsareclusteringtooccupythemostprominentautoclustersinIndia.AccordingtotheVahanDashboardoftheMinistryofRoadTransportandHighways

(MoRTH),UttarPradeshfollowedbyMaharashtraandKarnatakadominatedIndia'sEVsalesin2022.Asmentionedinfigure4.3,togetherthesestatesaccountedforabout40%oftheoverallsales.

Figure4.3.State-wiseannualregisteredEVsales*in2022

Delhi-NCR

6%

%shareofstates&UTsinpan-

IndiaregisteredEVannualsales

0%16%

8%Rajasthan

LEGEND

Indicates%shareofthetop5statescontributingto

%

thepan-IndiaregisteredEVannualsales

UttarPradesh16%

E-2W

E-3W

Gurgaon

Dharuherai

E-Car

4%

Assam

E-BuS

7%

Gujarat

Halol

AndhraPradesh

3%

Others

EXISTINGKEYEVMANUFACTURINGCLUSTERS

Note:*EVregisteredsalesdata

duringJan-Dec2022,collected

fromRTOsacross34outof36

states&UTsinIndia

Source:VahanDashboard,

MoRTH,Gol,2022;CBRE

Research,Q22023

13%

4%

Maharashtra

Kerala

Nashik

●Hyderabad

Dhawa

Krishnagiri

Karnataka

TamilNadu

-

●E-2W

-

-

-

-

9%

E-3W

E-Car

7%

●E-Bus

Gurgaon

Bangalore

Chennai

Hosur

Hyderabad

Baramati

Bangalore

Chennai

Chakan

Hyderabad

Dharwad

-Sanand

-Bhiwadi

-Nashik

-Chakan

-Krishnagir

-Nashik

Sanand

-Halol

-Dharuhera

-Faridabad

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iBmanufacturingcapacity(Gwh)

Mining/Sourcing

ComponentManufacturing

Recycling

Application

EVBattery

ManufacturinginIndia

In2022,Indiastood18thonBloombergNEF's(BNEF)GlobalLithium-ionBattery(LiB)SupplyChainRankings(refertofigure4.4.).Atpresent,Indiaimportsrawmaterialsforlithium-ioncellmanufacturingwhich

accountsfor77%oftheoverallmanufacturingcostofanLiB.However,India'sdependenceonimportedlithiumislikelytoreducesignificantlywiththediscoveryof5.9milliontonnesoflithiumreservesinJammuandKashmir'sReasiDistrictinFebruary2023.

Figure4.4.LiBmanufacturingcapacitybycountry-2022

Korea

Source:BNEF'sGlobalLithium-ionBatterySupplyChainRanking,2022;CBREResearch,Q22023

Figure4.5.AnoverviewoftheLiBvaluechain

CellsandModuleManufacturing

Midstream

Downstream

Upstream

-Explorationofminerals

-Excavation

-Supplychain

-Processing

-Imports

-Electrodematerial

Electrolytes

Separators/

membranes

CellmanufacturingModuleformationPackAssembly

Batterymanagement

systems

Electricvehicles

EnergyStorage

EOLcollection

Dismantlingandcollection

Source:GlobalEVOutlook,InternationalEnergyAgency,2022;CBREResearch,Q22023

Figure4.6.ManufacturingcostandcomponentcostbreakupforLiB

8%

46%

Rawmaterial

component

cost

23%

■Cathode

■Manufacturing/Equipment

■Anode

Electrolyte

Separator

■Casing

■OtherCell

Materials

10%

■Rawmaterials

Labou

8%

Manufacturing

■Depreciation

cost

Maintainance&Repairs

77%

■Electricity

Source:JMK'sLithium-ionBattery(LiB)ManufacturingLandscapeInIndia,2022;CBREResearch,Q22023

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Figure4.7.Installedandsanctioned

Infrastructurerequirementsforsetting

upanEVchargingstation

Landforchargingvehiclesandentryorexitofvehicles

Atransformer,substationequipmentandsafety

equipment

33/11KVcablesand

associatedequipmentforlineandmeters

Civilworksandinstallations

Installationofallcharger

modelsapprovedbylocalandinternationalstandards

Source:MinistryofHeavyIndustries,Gol,2022;CBREResearch,Q22023

InstalledandSanctionedChargingInfrastructureforEVs

InPhase-IoftheFAMEIndiaScheme,theMinistryofHeavyIndustriesinstalled479EVchargersagainstthesanctioned520.Further,2,877EVchargersin68citiesacross25states&UTsweresanctionedunder

Phase-lloftheFAMEIndiaScheme.Thestate-wisedetailsofinstalledandsanctionedEVchargersarementionedinfigure4.7.

EVchargersacrossstates/UTs

Jammu&Kashmir

25

HimachalPradesh

4870Chandigarh

Uttarakhand

Mohali

Assam

50

20

16207

94

37

Sikkim

29

Meghalaya

40

Jharkhand

Gujarat

278

WestBenga

141

MadhyaPradesh

235

Chhattisgarh

25

●Pune

●Hyderabad

138

Goa

30

266

Karnataka

65172

Puducherry

10

Kerala

211

TamilNadu

281

AndhraPradesh

UttarPradesh

Telangana

Maharashtra

●Delhi-NCR

Rajasthan

910

Delhi-NCR

Haryana

Gurgaon

Odisha

Bihar

205

317

49

30

57

72

10

18

LEGEND

EVchargersinstalledunderPhase-IofFAMEIndiaScheme

EVchargerssanctionedunderPhase-llofFAMEIndiaScheme

Stateswithmorethan100EVchargerssanctioned

Stateswithlessthan100EVchargerssanctioned

EXISTINGKEYLiB

MANUFACTURING

CLUSTERS

Chennai

-

Mandal

Hyderabad

-

Delhi-NCR

Pune

-

Gurgaon

Prantij-Mohali

Surat

5Capitalisin

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H12023

2022

2021

2020

InvestmentsintheIndian

EVMarket

Bymakingtheshifttowardselectricmobility,theIndianEVindustryissteadilybecominganintegralpartoftheautomotivesector.Theyear2022witnessedstronginvestment