经济学原理宏观经济学分册英文原版专家讲座

9

THEREALECONOMYINTHELONGRUN25ProductionandGrowthProductionandGrowthAcountry’sstandardoflivingdependsonitsabilitytoproducegoodsandservices.ProductionandGrowthWithinacountrytherearelargechangesinthestandardoflivingovertime.ProductionandGrowthIntheUnitedStatesoverthepastcentury,averageincomeasmeasuredbyrealGDPperpersonhasgrownbyabout2percentperyear.ProductionandGrowthProductivityreferstotheamountofgoodsandservicesproducedforeachhourofaworker’stime.Anation’sstandardoflivingisdeterminedbytheproductivityofitsworkers.Table1TheVarietyofGrowthExperiencesCopyright©2023South-WesternECONOMICGROWTHAROUNDTHEWORLDLivingstandards,asmeasuredbyrealGDPperperson,varysignificantlyamongnations.ECONOMICGROWTHAROUNDTHEWORLDThepoorestcountrieshaveaveragelevelsofincomethathavenotbeenseenintheUnitedStatesformanydecades.ECONOMICGROWTHAROUNDTHEWORLDAnnualgrowthratesthatseemsmallbecomelargewhencompoundedformanyyears.Compoundingreferstotheaccumulationofagrowthrateoveraperiodoftime.PRODUCTIVITY:ITSROLEANDDETERMINANTSProductivityplaysakeyroleindetermininglivingstandardsforallnationsintheworld.WhyProductivityIsSoImportantProductivityreferstotheamountofgoodsandservicesthataworkercanproducefromeachhourofwork.WhyProductivityIsSoImportantTounderstandthelargedifferencesinlivingstandardsacrosscountries,wemustfocusontheproductionofgoodsandservices.HowProductivityIsDeterminedTheinputsusedtoproducegoodsandservicesarecalledthefactorsofproduction.Thefactorsofproductiondirectlydetermineproductivity.HowProductivityIsDeterminedTheFactorsofProductionPhysicalcapitalHumancapitalNaturalresourcesTechnologicalknowledgeHowProductivityIsDeterminedPhysicalCapitalisaproducedfactorofproduction.Itisaninputintotheproductionprocessthatinthepastwasanoutputfromtheproductionprocess.isthestockofequipmentandstructuresthatareusedtoproducegoodsandservices.Toolsusedtobuildorrepairautomobiles.Toolsusedtobuildfurniture.Officebuildings,schools,etc.HowProductivityIsDeterminedHumanCapitaltheeconomist’stermfortheknowledgeandskillsthatworkersacquirethrougheducation,training,andexperienceLikephysicalcapital,humancapitalraisesanation’sabilitytoproducegoodsandservices.HowProductivityIsDeterminedNaturalResourcesinputsusedinproductionthatareprovidedbynature,suchasland,rivers,andmineraldeposits.Renewableresourcesincludetreesandforests.Nonrenewableresourcesincludepetroleumandcoal.canbeimportantbutarenotnecessaryforaneconomytobehighlyproductiveinproducinggoodsandservices.HowProductivityIsDeterminedTechnologicalKnowledgesociety’sunderstandingofthebestwaystoproducegoodsandservices.Humancapital

referstotheresourcesexpendedtransmittingthisunderstandingtothelaborforce.FYI:TheProductionFunctionEconomistsoftenuseaproductionfunctiontodescribetherelationshipbetweenthequantityofinputsusedinproductionandthequantityofoutputfromproduction.FYI:TheProductionFunctionY=AF(L,K,H,N)Y=quantityofoutputA=availableproductiontechnologyL=quantityoflaborK=quantityofphysicalcapitalH=quantityofhumancapitalN=quantityofnaturalresourcesF()isafunctionthatshowshowtheinputsarecombined.FYI:TheProductionFunctionAproductionfunctionhasconstantreturnstoscaleif,foranypositivenumberx,xY=AF(xL,xK,xH,xN)Thatis,adoublingofallinputscausestheamountofoutputtodoubleaswell.FYI:TheProductionFunctionProductionfunctionswithconstantreturnstoscalehaveaninterestingimplication.Settingx=1/L,Y/L=AF(1,K/L,H/L,N/L)Where:Y/L=outputperworkerK/L=physicalcapitalperworkerH/L=humancapitalperworkerN/L=naturalresourcesperworkerFYI:TheProductionFunctionTheprecedingequationsaysthatproductivity(Y/L)dependsonphysicalcapitalperworker(K/L),humancapitalperworker(H/L),andnaturalresourcesperworker(N/L),aswellasthestateoftechnology,(A).ECONOMICGROWTHANDPUBLICPOLICYGovernmentscandomanythingstoraiseproductivityandlivingstandards.ECONOMICGROWTHANDPUBLICPOLICYGovernmentPoliciesThatRaiseProductivityandLivingStandardsEncouragesavingandinvestment.EncourageinvestmentfromabroadEncourageeducationandtraining.Establishsecurepropertyrightsandmaintainpoliticalstability.Promotefreetrade.Promoteresearchanddevelopment.TheImportanceofSavingandInvestmentOnewaytoraisefutureproductivityistoinvestmorecurrentresourcesintheproductionofcapital.Figure1GrowthandInvestmentCopyright©2023Southwestern/ThomsonLearning(a)

Growth

Rate

1960–1991(b)

Investment

1960–1991SouthKoreaSingaporeJapanIsraelCanadaBrazilWestGermanyMexicoUnitedKingdomNigeriaUnitedStatesIndiaBangladeshChileRwandaSouthKoreaSingaporeJapanIsraelCanadaBrazilWestGermanyMexicoUnitedKingdomNigeriaUnitedStatesIndiaBangladeshChileRwandaInvestment(percentofGDP)GrowthRate(percent)01234567010203040DiminishingReturnsandtheCatch-UpEffectAsthestockofcapitalrises,theextraoutputproducedfromanadditionalunitofcapitalfalls;thispropertyiscalleddiminishingreturns.Becauseofdiminishingreturns,anincreaseinthesavingrateleadstohighergrowthonlyforawhile.DiminishingReturnsandtheCatch-UpEffectInthelongrun,thehighersavingrateleadstoahigherlevelofproductivityandincome,butnottohighergrowthintheseareas.DiminishingReturnsandtheCatch-UpEffectThecatch-upeffectreferstothepropertywherebycountriesthatstartoffpoortendtogrowmorerapidlythancountriesthatstartoffrich.InvestmentfromAbroadGovernmentscanincreasecapitalaccumulationandlong-termeconomicgrowthbyencouraginginvestmentfromforeignsources.InvestmentfromAbroadInvestmentfromabroadtakesseveralforms:ForeignDirectInvestmentCapitalinvestmentownedandoperatedbyaforeignentity.ForeignPortfolioInvestmentInvestmentsfinancedwithforeignmoneybutoperatedbydomesticresidents.EducationForacountry’slong-rungrowth,educationisatleastasimportantasinvestmentinphysicalcapital.IntheUnitedStates,eachyearofschoolingraisesaperson’swage,onaverage,byabout10percent.Thus,onewaythegovernmentcanenhancethestandardoflivingistoprovideschoolsandencouragethepopulationtotakeadvantageofthem.EducationAneducatedpersonmightgeneratenewideasabouthowbesttoproducegoodsandservices,whichinturn,mightentersociety’spoolofknowledgeandprovideanexternalbenefittoothers.EducationOneproblemfacingsomepoorcountriesisthebraindrain—theemigrationofmanyofthemosthighlyeducatedworkerstorichcountries.PropertyRightsandPoliticalStabilityPropertyrightsrefertotheabilityofpeopletoexerciseauthorityovertheresourcestheyown.Aneconomy-widerespectforpropertyrightsisanimportantprerequisiteforthepricesystemtowork.Itisnecessaryforinvestorstofeelthattheirinvestmentsaresecure.FreeTradeTradeis,insomeways,atypeoftechnology.Acountrythateliminatestraderestrictionswillexperiencethesamekindofeconomicgrowththatwouldoccurafteramajortechnologicaladvance.FreeTradeSomecountriesengagein......inward-orientatedtradepolicies,avoidinginteractionwithothercountries....outward-orientatedtradepolicies,encouraginginteractionwithothercountries.ResearchandDevelopmentTheadvanceoftechnologicalknowledgehasledtohigherstandardsofliving.Mosttechnologicaladvancecomesfromprivateresearchbyfirmsandindividualinventors.Governmentcanencouragethedevelopmentofnewtechnologiesthroughresearchgrants,taxbreaks,andthepatentsystem.CASESTUDY:TheProductivitySlowdownandSpeedupFrom1959to1973productivitygrewatarateof3.2percentperyear.From1973to1995productivitygrewbyonly1.5percentperyear.Productivityacceleratedagainin1995,growingby2.6percentperyearonaverageduringthenextsixyears.CASESTUDY:TheProductivitySlowdownandSpeedupThecausesofthechangesinproductivitygrowthareelusive.Theslowdowncannotbetracedtothefactorsofproductionthataremosteasilymeasured.Manyeconomistsattributetheslowdownandspeedupineconomicgrowthtochangesintechnologyandthecreationofnewideas.Figure2TheGrowthinRealGDPPerPersonCopyright©2023Southwestern/ThomsonLearningGrowthRate(percentperyear)1.01.52.02.53.03.54.01870–18901890–19101910–19301930–19501950–19701970–19901990–20230PopulationGrowthEconomistsandothersocialscientistshavelongdebatedhowpopulationgrowthaffects