国会预算办公室-经济绘图图形选择指南

AGuidefor

ChoosingGraphics

©MDart10/S

MAY|2023

AGuideforChoosingGraphics

/publication/57978

ThisguidecontainsexamplesofthewidevarietyofgraphicsthathavebeenproducedforvariouspublicationsattheCongressionalBudgetOffice.AsauthorsandreviewersatCBOconsiderwaystomakeforthcomingpublicationsmoreinformativeandvisuallyengaging,thecollectionmaybeausefulresource,asareCBO’sgraphicseditors.

Besidespresentingexamplesofcommongraphics,thisguidealsoincludesexamplesofhowvarioustechniques(suchasannotations,captions,insets,nesting,andsmallmultiples)canbeappliedtocommongraphicstohelpthosegraphicsconveytheirmessage.

Inaddition,thecollectionpresentsexamplesoflesscommongraphics(suchasSankeydiagrams,Marimekkocharts,timelines,maps,heatmaps,andtreemaps).Assomeofthoseexamplessuggest,CBO’sgraphicsarenotlimitedtoconveyingdata;theycanalsoillustrateconceptsorprocesses.

Becausethefocusofthisguideisinformationaboutchoicesamongvarioustypesofgraphics,examplesarereproducedastheywerepublished(invarioustypesofpublicationsandsome,awhileago),withoutregularizingsomesmallaspectsofformattingandgenerallywithoutincludingnotesthataccompaniedthegraphics.

Agraphicshouldbeconsideredinthecontextoftheentirepublication.Whenconsideringagraphic,thinkaboutthesequestions:

■Whatistheoverarchingnarrativeofthepublication?

■Whatisthemessagebeingconveyedbythegraphic?

■Doesthatmessagehelptellorreinforcetheoverarchingstoryofthepublication?

Iftheanswertothethirdquestionisno,modifyingthegraphicwilldolittletoimprovethepublication.Instead,trytothinkofamessagethatwouldhelptellthepublication’sstory.Thentrytothinkofagraphicthatwouldconveythatmessage—perhapslookingthroughthisguideforinspiration.

Ideally,thepublication’soverarchingstorywillbemirroredinits“visualstory,”sothatareadercanmovefromfiguretofigureandunderstandthepublication’smainpointsevenbeforereadingthetext.Agoodwaytofigureoutthevisualstory(andthustochoosethegraphicsforapublication)istothinkaboutwhichgraphicswouldbeincludedinabriefingaboutthepublication.

May2023

C

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CM

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C CMMM C D

MM T T TM T

MMMMM

T

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D D DM

D

D

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P

P

MM

P

P

P

(Various)

D

D

C(Covariance)

M

(Various)(Various)(Various)

GraphicsLaunchpad

TypeofGraphicGoaloftheGraphicNumberofVariablesChartedNumberofTimePeriodsShownPage

LineGraph,I

C

T

Few

Many

1

LineGraph,II

C

T

Few

Many

2

LineGraph,III

C

T

Few

Many

3

LineGraph,IV

C

T

Few

Many

4

LineGraph,V

C

T

Few

Many

5

BarGraph(Horizontal)

C

T

Few

Few

6

BarGraph(Vertical)

C

T

Few

Many

7

SegmentedBarGraph,I

SegmentedBarGraph,II

SegmentedBarGraph,III

Targetvs.ActualBarGraph

NestedBarGraph

WaterfallChart

MarimekkoChart,I

MarimekkoChart,II

CombinedBarandLineGraph

StackedAreaChart

SmallMultiples,I

SmallMultiples,II

FanChart

PieChart

DoughnutChart

SegmentedBarGraph,IV

CombinedPieChartandBarGraph

Treemap

BoxPlot

ModifiedBoxPlotandBeeswarm

ViolinPlot

DotPlot

Map,I

Map,II

Map,III

SankeyDiagram,I

SankeyDiagram,II

Timeline

Flowchart,I

Flowchart,II

AnnotatedFigure

Heatmap,I

Heatmap,II

ConnectedScatterPlot

IconArray

Illustration,I

Illustration,II

Diagram

C

=Comparison(Compareonesetofvalueswithanother)

M

=Makeup(Showhowpartsmakeupthewhole)

D

=Distribution(Showthedistributionofasetofvalues—toidentifyoutliers,shownormalranges,andsoon)

P T

=Process(Showhowsomethingworks)=Trend(Illustratevariables’changeovertime)

May20231

LineGraph,I

Outlays,byCategory

PercentageofGDP

24

20

16

12

8

4

0

Projected

Mandatory

Discretionary

NetInterest

15.3

6.0

3.6

InCBO’sprojections,risingspendingonSocialSecurityandMedicareboostsmandatoryoutlays,buttotaldiscretionaryspendingfallsinrelationtoGDP.Asthecostoffinancingthenation’sdebtgrows,netoutlaysforinterestincreasesubstantiallyand,beginningin2030,exceedtheirpreviouspeak.

1973198319932003201320232033

LinegraphsarewidelyusedatCBO.Amongthefiveversionsprovided,thisversionusesspaceontherightforacaption,becausecaptionsaregenerallyencouragedinCBO’spublications.(Whenafigureisjustonecolumnoftextwide,though,thecaptiongoesbeneathitratherthantotheside.)

CongressionalBudgetOffice,TheBudgetandEconomicOutlook:2023to2033(February2023),p.21,

/publication/5

8848.

May20233

Payable-BenefitsScenario

ExtendedBaseline

ExtendedAlternative

FiscalScenario

220

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

219ExtendedAlternative

FiscalScenario

144ExtendedBaseline

106Payable-BenefitsScenario

0

2004200920142019202420292034203920442049

Source:CongressionalBudgetOffice.

Theextendedbaselineprojectionsgenerallyreflectcurrentlaw,followingCBO’s10-yearbaselinebudgetprojectionsthrough2029andthenextendingmostoftheconceptsunderlyingthoseprojectionsfortherestofthelong-termprojectionperiod.

Undertheextendedalternativefiscalscenario,substantialtaxincreasesanddiscretionaryspendingcutswouldnottakeplaceasscheduled;instead,currentlawwouldbechangedtomaintaincertainmajorpoliciesthatarenowinplace.Underthepayable-benefitsscenario,spendingforSocialSecuritywouldbesignificantlylowerthanitisintheextendedbaselineprojections.

Grossnationalproductdiffersfromgrossdomesticproduct,themorecommonmeasureoftheoutputoftheeconomy,byincludingtheincomethatU.S.residentsearnabroadandexcludingtheincomethatnonresidentsearninthiscountry.

Theestimatesofdeficits,surpluses,anddebtincludemacroeconomicfeedback.

LineGraph,III

OutputperPersonandDebtUnderThreeScenarios

RealGrossNationalProductperPerson

Thousandsof2019Dollars,byCalendarYear

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

ActualProjected

97

94

91

2004200920142019202420292034203920442049

FederalDebtHeldbythePublic

PercentageofGrossDomesticProduct,byFiscalYear

ActualProjected

Anothervariant.

CongressionalBudgetOffice,The2019Long-TermBudgetOutlook(June2019),p.42,

/publication/55331

.

4AGuideforChoosingGraphics

100

80

60

40

20

0

1980198519901995200020052010

Source:CongressionalBudgetOffice,usingdatafromtheCensusBureau,theBureauofJusticeStatistics,andtheDepartmentofDefense.Peoplearecountedasemployedwhethertheyareemployedfulltimeorparttime.

Shadedverticalbarsindicateperiodsofrecession,whichextendfromthepeakofabusinesscycletoitstrough.Tickmarkscorrespondto

Octoberoftheyearindicated.

/publication/51495

.

LineGraph,IV

ShareofYoungMenWithVariousLevelsofEducationWhoWereEmployed

CiviliansorintheMilitary

Percent

CivilianEmployment

Bachelor’sDegreeorMore

HighSchool

SomeCollege

LessThanHighSchool

MilitaryEmployment

100

12

80

8

60

4

40

0

1980198519901995

20

0

Ifthelinesinagrapharedifficulttodistinguish,consideraddinganinset.

Anotherwayofmakinglinesmoredistinctistoreducethescaleofthey-axis;inthiscase,however,CBOwantedtokeepthebottompanelconsistentwiththetoppanel.(Apossiblealternativewhenchangeswouldbedifficultorimpossibletoseeisto“break”they-axisjustabovezeroandbeginthataxiswithavalueclosertothelowestdatapoint;butchoosethatapproachcautiouslybecauseazerobaselinecanbemeaningful.)

CongressionalBudgetOffice,TrendsintheJoblessnessandIncarcerationofYoungMen(May2016),p.11,

May20235

25thPercentile

LineGraph,V

WealthofFamiliesatSelectedPercentilesoftheDistribution

Thousandsof2019Dollars

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

250

100

0

90thPercentile

75thPercentile

50thPercentile(Median)

In1989,theratioofthewealthofthefamilyatthe90thpercentiletothatofthefamilyatthemedianwas7.3to1.In2007,thatratiogrewto7.6to1,andin2019,itroseto9.7to1.

19891992199519982001200420072010201320162019

AlthoughCBO’slinegraphsusuallydonotincludedotstomarkeverydatapoint,theymaybehelpfulwhenitisimportanttodiscernthedatapointsorclarifythatthelinesdonotthemselvesrepresentdata.Anotheroptioninsuchcasesisabargraph(seepages

6

and

7

).Dotsshouldnotbeusediftheywould

clutterthegraph.

CongressionalBudgetOffice,TrendsintheDistributionofFamilyWealth,1989to2019(September2022),p.7,

/publication/57598

.

6AGuideforChoosingGraphics

a

BarGraph(Horizontal)

ChangesinProjectedOutlaysFrom2020to2030

PercentageofGDP

Outlays

Change

(Percentagepoints)

MajorReasonsforChange

2020

2030

SocialSecurity4.9

6.0

1.1

Agingofthepopulation

MajorHealthCareProgramsa5.4

7.0

1.6

Agingofthepopulation;risingcostsofhealthcare

OtherMandatorySpending2.6

2.2

−0.4

InflationrateislessthannominalGDPgrowth

DiscretionarySpending6.4

5.6

−0.8

Capsonfunding;inflationrateislessthannominalGDPgrowth

NetInterest1.7

2.6

0.8

Accumulatingdebt;risinginterestrates

Source:CongressionalBudgetOffice.GDP=grossdomesticproduct.

.

ConsistsofoutlaysforMedicare(netofpremiumsandotheroffsettingreceipts),Medicaid,theChildren’sHealthInsuranceProgram,premiumtaxcredits,andrelatedspending.

Itcanbehardtodecidewhentouseabargraphandwhentousealinegraph.Herethechoiceofahorizontalbargraphwaseasybecausetherewerejustafewdatapoints(beginningandendingvalues)toillustrate,andtheauthorwantedtosaymoreaboutthedatathancouldfitunderverticalbars.

CongressionalBudgetOffice,TheBudgetandEconomicOutlook:2020to2030(January2020),p.20,

/publication/56020

.

1970197519801985199019952000200520102015202020252030

Source:CongressionalBudgetOffice.

WhenOctober1(thefirstdayofthefiscalyear)fallsonaweekend,certainpaymentsthatwouldhaveordinarilybeenmadeonthatdayareinsteadmadeattheendofSeptemberandthusareshiftedintothepreviousfiscalyear.Allprojectionspresentedherehavebeenadjustedtoexcludetheeffectsofthosetimingshifts.Historicalamountshavebeenadjustedasfarbackastheavailabledatawillallow.

GDP=grossdomesticproduct.

May20237

BarGraph(Vertical)

TotalDeficitsandSurpluses

PercentageofGDP

4

2

0

−2

−4

−6

−8

−10

Projected

Surpluses

Average,

1970to2019

Average,

2021to2030

(−4.8%)

Deficits

(−3.0%)

DeficitsasapercentageofGDPareprojectedtorisefrom4.6percentin2020to5.4percentin2030.Theyexceedtheir50-yearaveragethroughoutthatperiod.

Butasthisexampleshows,bargraphscanbeusefulforshowingmanydatapoints—workthatisoftenperformedbylinegraphs.

CongressionalBudgetOffice,TheBudgetandEconomicOutlook:2020to2030(January2020),p.6,

/publication/56020

.

19731981199020012007201920242030

Source:CongressionalBudgetOffice.

Realvaluesarenominalvaluesthathavebeenadjustedtoremovetheeffectsofchangesinprices.GrowthinrealpotentialGDPisthesumofgrowthinthepotentiallaborforceandgrowthinpotentiallaborforceproductivity.ThepotentiallaborforceisCBO’sestimateofthesizeofthelaborforcethatwouldoccurifeconomicoutputandotherkeyvariableswereattheirmaximumsustainableamounts.PotentiallaborforceproductivityistheratioofrealpotentialGDPtothepotentiallaborforce.

Thebarsshowaverageannualgrowthratesoverthespecifiedperiods,calculatedusingcalendaryeardata.

GDP=grossdomesticproduct.

8AGuideforChoosingGraphics

4

3

2

RealPotentialGDP

PotentialLaborForceProductivity

PotentialLaborForce

1

0

SegmentedBarGraph,I

CompositionoftheGrowthofRealPotentialGDP

PercentageChange

4.0

2.4

1.6

3.1

0.6

2.5

3.3

1.7

1.6

3.2

2.0

1.2

2.6

1.6

1.0

1.6

1.1

0.5

Projected

2.0

1.5

0.5

1.7

1.4

0.3

1950−1974−1982−1991−2002−2008−2020−2025−

Overthenextdecade,realpotentialGDPisprojectedtogrowfasterthanithassincethelastrecessionbecauseoffastergrowthinpotentiallaborforceproductivity.However,growthinthepotentiallaborforceisprojectedtobeslowerthaninpreviousperiods,largelybecauseoftheagingofthepopulation.

Likelinegraphs,somesegmentedbargraphsshowvaluelabels,...

CongressionalBudgetOffice,TheBudgetandEconomicOutlook:2020to2030(January2020),p.47,

/publication/56020

.

May20239

Deficit

20

Ifcurrentlawsgenerallyremainedunchanged,spendingwouldgrowfasterthanrevenuesoverthenext30years,causingdeficitstoincreasesubstantially.

OtherRevenuescCorporateIncomeTaxes

PayrollTaxes

10

IndividualIncomeTaxes

0

OutlaysRevenues

Outlays

Revenues

Source:CongressionalBudgetOffice.

...andothersdonot.Thereisnosinglecorrectapproach.

CongressionalBudgetOffice,The2019Long-TermBudgetOutlook(June2019),p.8,

/publication/55331

.

SegmentedBarGraph,II

TheFederalBudgetin2019and2049

PercentageofGrossDomesticProduct

2049

2019

30

NetInterest

OtherNoninterestSpendinga

MajorHealthCareProgramsb

SocialSecurity

a.ConsistsofallfederalspendingotherthanthatforSocialSecurity,themajorhealthcareprograms,andnetinterest.

b.ConsistsofspendingforMedicare(netofpremiumsandotheroffsettingreceipts),Medicaid,andtheChildren’sHealthInsuranceProgram,aswellasoutlaystosubsidizehealthinsurancepurchasedthroughthemarketplacesestablishedundertheAffordableCareActandrelatedspending.

c.Consistsofexcisetaxes,remittancestotheTreasuryfromtheFederalReserveSystem,customsduties,estateandgifttaxes,andmiscellaneousfeesandfines.

10AGuideforChoosingGraphics

SegmentedBarGraph,III

SharesofIncomeBeforeTransfersandTaxes,1979to2017

Percent

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

19801985199019952000200520102015

Top1

Percent

81stto99th

Percentiles

Middle

Three

Quintiles

Lowest

Quintile

Addenoughvalues,andasegmentedbargraphbecomessimilartoastackedareachart(see

page17

).

CongressionalBudgetOffice,TheDistributionofHouseholdIncome,2017(October2020),p.11,

/publication/56575

.

May202311

Targetvs.ActualBarGraph

ShareofCoworkersWithEarningsofLessThan$40,000inDifferent-SizedFirmsinHISIM2andTaxData,2017

Sometimesinabarchart,itisusefultosuperimposetwoseriesratherthangroupthemsidebyside.Considerdoingsowhenoneseriesisservingasareference,thewayreal-worldtaxdatadointheexampleabove.

LucasGoodmanandothers,DataandMethodsforConstructingSyntheticFirmsinCBO’sHealthInsuranceSimulationModel,HISIM2,WorkingPaper2021-15(CongressionalBudgetOffice,December2021),p.32,

/publication/57431

.

12AGuideforChoosingGraphics

12.2

Source:CongressionalBudgetOffice.

NestedBarGraph

ChangesinCBO’sBaselineProjectionofthe10-YearDeficitSinceAugust2019

TrillionsofDollars

10-YearDeficitinCBO’s

August2019Baseline

12.4

10-YearDeficitinCBO’s

January2020Baseline

0.4

ReductionsinRevenuesUndertheFurtherConsolidatedAppropriationsAct,2020

0.3

TechnicalIncreasesinProjectedMedicareSpending

ReductionsinNetInterestSpendingBecauseofLowerInterestRates−0.4OtherLegislative,Economic,andTechnicalChanges−0.1

Here,thesmallerbargraphbreaksdownthedifferenceshowninthelargerone,...

CongressionalBudgetOffice,TheBudgetandEconomicOutlook:2020to2030(January2020),p.62,

/publication/56020

.

May202313

0

ThePresident’sbudgetwouldlowerthecumulativedeficitoverthe2020–2029periodbysignificantlyreducingoutlaysforhealthcareandnondefensediscretionaryprograms.Thosereductionswouldbepartiallyoffsetbyincreasesindefensespendingandareductioninrevenues.

−3

−6

−9

−12

DeficitReductioninReductioninReductionIncreaseReductionDeficitunder

Sources:CongressionalBudgetOffice;staffoftheJointCommitteeonTaxation.

...andthiswaterfallchartperformsasimilarfunction.

CongressionalBudgetOffice,AnAnalysisofthePresident’s2020Budget(May2019),p.6,

/publication/55195

.

WaterfallChart

SourcesofDifferencesBetweenCBO’sEstimatesof10-YearBudgetDeficits

intheMay2019BaselineandUnderthePresident’s2020Budget

TrillionsofDollars

1.0

1.5

−11.4

0.3

−0.5

−0.9

−9.9

mandatory

healthcare

spending

nondefense

discretionary

spending

inCBO’sMay2019

baseline

inothermandatory

indefensespending

inrevenuesthePresident’s

2020budget

interestspending

andnet

14AGuideforChoosingGraphics

MarimekkoChart,I

StatusofYoungMen,byLevelofEducation,2014

LessThanHighSchool

HighSchool

SomeCollege

Bachelor’s

DegreeorMore

JoblessorIncarcerated

32

2278

1090

892

EmployedorinSchool

68

Percentageof

Total

11

34

33

22

0255075100

Percent

Source:CongressionalBudgetOffice,usingdatafromtheCensusBureau,theBureauofJusticeStatistics,andtheDepartmentofDefense.Peoplearecountedasjoblessiftheyareneitherinschoolnorworking,whetherornottheyarelookingforwork.Peoplearecountedasemployedorinschoolwhethertheydothoseactivitiesfulltimeorparttime.

Theheightofthebarsrepresentstheshareofyoungmenineacheducationcategory.

Hereisawaytoaddinformationaboutthesizeofvariousgroupsbeinganalyzed.Onedrawbackisthatexplaininghowthechartworkscanbeawkward.Inthisexample,CBOresortedtousinganoteatthebottom,...

CongressionalBudgetOffice,TrendsintheJoblessnessandIncarcerationofYoungMen(May2016),p.7,

/publication/51495

.

May202315

MarimekkoChart,II

ProjectedAverageAnnualGrowthinAverageInflation-AdjustedHouseholdIncome,2016to2021

Percent

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

BeforeTransfersandTaxes

LowestQuintile

SecondQuintile

MiddleQuintile

FourthQuintile

81stto90thPercentiles

91stto95thPercentiles

96thto99thPercentiles

Top1Percent

AfterTransfersandTaxes

Growthinincomeaftertransfersandtaxesismore

skewedtowardhigher-incomehouseholdsthanis

growthinincomebeforetransfersandtaxes.

LowestQuintile

SecondQuintile

MiddleQuintile

FourthQuintile

81stto90thPercentiles

91stto95thPercentiles

96thto99thPercentiles

Top1Percent

...butinthisexample,CBOomittedanexplanatorynote,thinkingthatthewords“quintile”and“percentile”sufficientlyexplainedthebars’varyingwidths.

CongressionalBudgetOffice,ProjectedChangesintheDistributionofHouseholdIncome,2016to2021

(December2019),p.1,

/publication/55941

.

16