德勤信用风险管理

CreditRiskManagement

EnhancingYourBottomLineEbrahimShabudinManagingDirectorDeloitte&ToucheLLPTheAFP23rdAnnualConferenceNewOrleansNovember3-6,2002第一页，共三十六页。CreditBackgroundThoroughidentificationandaccuratemeasurementofcreditrisk,supportedbystrongriskmanagementcanhelpimprovethebottomline…..Anuncertainandvolatileeconomic environmentsignificantlyimpactsthisability…..Thedesiretogrowandturninoutstanding resultshasatendencytoputpressureonthe checksandbalanceswithinbusinesses第二页，共三十六页。ValuePropositionCreditplaysacriticalrolein“selling”productsandservicesExpandsrevenueopportunitieswithcreditworthy,incrementalcustomersUtilizesinnovativestructurestosupportbusinessrelationshipsEffectivecreditriskmanagementlimitscreditlossesandprovidesstablecashflowsandearningsMarketplacerewardscompaniesexhibitingearningsandcashflowstabilitywithhigherP/EmultiplesMarketplacepenalizescreditinducedvolatilityand“surprises”Raisesquestionsaboutqualityofmanagement第三页，共三十六页。CorporateCreditRiskCompaniesareexposedtosignificantlevelsofcreditriskemanatingfromdifferentsourcesAccountsReceivablesOtherNotesReceivablesBuyerandFranchiseFinancingWithRecourseFinancingProjectFinanceStructuredTransactionsLeaseswithRecourseDerivativesExposuresFX,InterestRateRisk,Commoditiesetc.CollateralRiskParentorThirdPartyGuaranteesCommercialandStandbyLettersofCreditNotealsothatCriticalSupplierstothecompanymayposespecificcreditrisk第四页，共三十六页。DSOImpact…anexampleActualCompanyAPeerAverageQ3A/R$295,396,000Q3Sales$261,201,000\DSOs=124*51.3HypotheticalDCashDSOs51.3Q3Sales$261,201,000\Q3A/R=$122,002,230+$173,393,770*Equals295.4M/261.2Mx90(ornumberofdaysinsalesperiod)第五页，共三十六页。CreditasaFacilitatorCreditriskmanagementisimportant

CreditisafacilitatorofbusinessgrowthandperformanceHighbusinessmarginstendtoattractlowerqualityclientsandthereforehigherriskpromanageClients(buyers)maybeconcentratedinselectedindustriesandprovidelimitedportfoliodiversificationopportunityPoorcreditriskmanagementresultinginnegativeimpacttobottom-lineisheavilypenalizedbymarkets第六页，共三十六页。CreditStrategy&RiskToleranceSpecificQuantifiableObjectivesManagementReviewMethodologyCreditStrategyStatementandRiskToleranceCoordinationwithBusinessPlanThebusinessstrategiesandobjectivesdrivetheestablishmentofcreditpoliciesandprocedures.Measurementandreportingaswellastheuseofcurrenttechnologiesenhancecreditdecision-makingandimproveriskmanagement.Theentireprocessiscontinuallyre-evaluatedandimproved.第七页，共三十六页。CreditRiskAreastoConsiderCreditPolicyCreditApprovalAuthorityLimitSettingPricingTermsandConditionsDocumentation:ContractsandCovenantsCollateralandSecurityCollections,DelinquenciesandWorkoutsExposureManagementAggregationControlPeriodicAccountReviewsPayments/AgingCreditConditionCompliancewithCovenants,TermsTechnology/ReportsTransactions/BookingsRisk-adjustedReturnSalesChannelsRiskStrategyUnderwritingStandardsCreditApplicationAnalysisBusiness/IndustryFinancialCreditCreditScoringandRatingsOrigination/AssessmentAdministrationMonitoring/ControlRiskManagementPortfolioManagementConcentrationDiversificationAllowanceforBadDebtsRiskMitigationObjectivesTypeofExposureInstrumentsorMethods第八页，共三十六页。ValueCreationBusinessPerformanceMeasuresOrganizationsneedarigoroussetofmeasurestosupportcontinuousimprovementPerformance-basedmanagementutilizesmetricsthatmeasureactualperformanceagainstpredeterminedthresholds.Thethresholdsareestablishedtakingintoaccounttheorganization’sstrategy,operatingenvironmentandprocesscontrols.Themeasuresdrivevaluecreationandshouldsupportproblemidentificationandcorrection.BusinessStrategySystemsOperationsFinancePerformanceManagement第九页，共三十六页。SaleschannelsContracts&DocumentationCreditanalysisCreditlimitPricing&termsCreditAnalysisCreditDecisionsCollectionsCREDITPOLICYCollateralacceptancePortfoliomanagementFinancialanalysisDisposal/

RiskmitigationCollateralmanagementCustomermanagementExposuremeasurementManagementreportingExposureaggregationRecoveriesCreditscoringRiskratingRISKMANAGEMENTCreditRiskManagement’sInter-relatedActivitiesComplianceOriginationReportingTransactions第十页，共三十六页。CreditPolicies

&Procedures

Analysis&RiskManagementGovernance,ControlandImplementation

MeasurementMethodologiesTechnology&DataIntegrityCreditStrategy&RiskTolerance

AcompleteandcoherentriskmanagementframeworkcontainsthefollowingelementsCreditRiskManagement第十一页，共三十六页。ANewParadigmAnewbusinessparadigmhadevolved:causingalackofrelianceongoodfundamentalanalysisTheideathatstockmarketvalueswouldcontinuetogoupindefinitelyIncreasinglycompetitive,complexandvolatilemarketplaceHigherthanexpectedactualdebtburdensExtensiverelianceonunrealisticfuturecashflowsFailuresincorporategovernanceQuestionablepersonalandcorporateethics第十二页，共三十六页。ImplicationsforCorporateGovernanceCurrentorganizationstructurestoberevisitedClarityaroundrolesandresponsibilitiesNeedforhonesty,integrityandindependence(self-regulation)TechnicalexpertiseofpeopleandstrongmanagementprocessesImproveddisclosurerequirementsImportanceandimplementationofsanctionsIncreasedlegislationandcompliancerequirements第十三页，共三十六页。Foundation:CreditRatingandUnderwritingStandardsRiskIdentification,Origination,CreditAdministration,etc.ShortTerm:ManagingExpectedLossRiskIdentification,Transaction

Structuring,Approval&PricingDecisions,Reserving,etc.NearTerm:ManagingEconomicCapital/CreditVaRPortfolioRiskConcentration,RiskBasedLimits,etc.

Vision: ManagingRisk/ReturnPricingdecisions,Performancemeasurement,businessandcustomersegmentation,compensation,etc.AbusinessmodelviewofCreditRiskInfrastructurecomponentsCreditRiskManagement–StrategicVision第十四页，共三十六页。DevelopmentStagesFoundationStageincludesapplicationofriskidentificationmethodologies,riskscoringorratingsystemsandstrongunderwritingstandards

BasicStagetendstoincludemanagingonatransactionalbasisbyevaluatingspecificattributessuchasstructuring,collateralandpricing

AdvancedStagerepresentsmanagingonaportfoliobasisincludingaspectssuchasconcentrations,correlationsanddiversification

TheSophisticatedStageincludesapplicationofhighlydevelopedmeasurementtechniquesfortransactionsandportfolios,supportedbydecision-makingrelatingtosegmentsorbusinessesagainstestablishedhurdlerates.第十五页，共三十六页。CreditRiskClarified

Creditriskisdefinedastheriskoflossorpotentiallossresultingfrom:DefaultincontractualobligationsbyacustomerMigrationinconditionandratingDeteriorationinperformance

Creditriskincludesbothanexpected(predictable)andunexpected(volatile)losscomponent.

第十六页，共三十六页。BusinesseshavetocontendwithExpectedandUnexpectedLossesExpectedLossesAnticipatedCostofdoingbusinessChargedtoprovisionsCapturedinpricingRelativelyeasiertomeasureAssessingexpectedlossincludesdeterminingexposure,defaultprobabilityandseverityUnexpectedLossesUnanticipatedbutinevitableMustbeplannedforCoveredbyreservesAllocatedtobusinessesDifficulttomeasureAssessingunexpectedlossrequiresmakingqualitativejudgmentsaroundpotentialvolatilityofaveragelosses第十七页，共三十六页。CreditRiskManagementExplainedAlthoughcreditriskmaybedifficulttomeasureitisimportanttoestimateandmanage

WhatdoesCreditRiskManagementmean?Itrepresentsaninstitution’sabilitytoproperlyidentifyandevaluatethepotentialriskofdefaultinpaymentofobligationsofcustomersItincorporatesthefirm’sabilitytoeffectivelymanageandcontrolthisexposureinawaythatisconsistentwiththeinstitution’sbusinessstrategy,riskappetiteandcreditculture第十八页，共三十六页。ImportantBuildingBlocksEffectiveCreditRiskManagementrequiresClearoriginationandunderwritingstandardsAstrongcorporateandcreditcultureHighlydevelopedriskmeasurementtechniquesAbilitytorecognizeandcoverexpectedandunexpectedlossesPricingcommensuratewithrisksundertakenMethodologiestoassessnetprofitcontributionsbycustomersandappropriatebusinesssegmentsProperallocationofcapitalandmanagementresourcesInorderto:Improveoverallcorporateperformance,measuredbyahigherEPSorP/Eratio(ormarketvalue)第十九页，共三十六页。CreditPolicyandProcessCreditPolicyshouldbeclearandconciseCreditUnderwritingStandardsmustbedevelopedandincludedinpolicyCreditProcessesshouldbereasonableandallowquickresponsetoclientsHealthybalancebetweensalesandcreditapprovalshouldexistandberespected第二十页，共三十六页。RiskMonitoringExposuremustbecompleteandcurrentRegularreportingandupdatingofclients’paymentperformanceMinimumannualreviewsofclientsshouldbeperformedFinancialconditionsshouldberegularlyassessedRequiredactionmustbeinitiatedandfollowupmusttakeplace第二十一页，共三十六页。ContractTermsandDocumentationContractnegotiationsmusttakeplaceattherightlevelintheorganizationAppropriateapprovalsmustbeobtainedInternalorexternallegaldepartmentsmustdocumentcompletelyTermsandconditionsshouldbeunderstoodandcompliancemechanismputinplaceExceptionsmustbereportedandmanagedurgentlytoresolution第二十二页，共三十六页。RiskRatingSystemEffectivenessCreditScoringisgenerallyusedto“riskrate”homogeneousportfoliosHighestapplicabilityisinconsumerandretailportfoliosSomeadvancedscoringsystemsarebeingmigratedforuseinrating“middlemarket”clientsSuchmodelsareonlyasgoodastheunderlyingassumptions InternalcreditratingsystemsaredifficulttoassessandareoftennotindependentlyvalidatedClientrelationshipmayinterferewithobjectiveassessmentofrisksRatingcriteriausuallyamatterofpracticeratherthanwrittenpolicyRatingsarenotconsistentovertimeQualitativecreditassessmentsoftenlagcurrentmarketinformationInstitutionsoftenassume

amappingwithexternalratingsinordertoquantifycreditrisk第二十三页，共三十六页。EffectiveRiskRatingSystemsSufficientgranularityofriskratingcategoriesAccurateandtimelyassignmentofratings

ClearandconsistentapplicationofdefaultdefinitionPeriodiccalibration,triangulationandvalidationofriskratingsAccurateidentificationofmigrationoftransactionsandportfolios(asreflectedbyupgradesanddowngradesinratings)第二十四页，共三十六页。CreditEvaluation:FinancialFactorsGettheinformationyouneedtomakeafullanalysisSomeinformationwillneedtobecross-checkedandobtainedonaregularandtimelybasisBeconstructivelycynical:newbusinessmodelsaredifficulttopulloffBecognizantofdelayingtacticsNumbersdon’ttellthewholestory!第二十五页，共三十六页。CreditEvaluation:QualitativeFactorsEvaluationofsubjectivefactorsisoftentimesmoreimportantthanthenumericalanalysisPeoplemakeabusiness:visions,valuesandstrategiesareonlywordsunlesspeopleimplementthemManagement,industry,product,geography,competitionetc.allinfluenceresultsandmustbeproperlyassessedAnalysis-paralysismayleadtowrongdecisions第二十六页，共三十六页。ArtandScienceofJudgmentGettingaccesstothebestclientsandalltherelevantinformationisachallengeEnsuringproperanalysisisdonerequiresastrongcorporatecultureUtilizingqualifiedresourcesbothinternallyandexternallyenhancestheresultsOftenthelackofthewilltoactiswhatcauseshighlosses第二十七页，共三十六页。ConcludingCommentsCompaniesthatmeasureandmanagecreditriskinapro-activemannerwillbenefitfromafavorableriskproinHigherrevenueLowerlossesImprovedefficienciesHigherEPS,P/Eratiosandmarketvalues第二十八页，共三十六页。ConcludingCommentsRiskAssessmentandLimitManagementCreditInfrastructureandPortfolioManagementCreditAnalyticsSupportCreditTechnologyEnablementCreditQualityCreditUnderwritingRiskRatingSystemEffectivenessCounterpartyandPortfolioLimitsOrganizationalStructurePoliciesandProceduresTechnologySelectionandImplementationProblemAssetManagementRiskRatingCalibrationTransactionPricing,StructureandSupportDefaultProbabilityandRecoveryCalibrationCreditReserveMethodologyRiskBasedPricingModelsRiskAdjustedReturnAnalysisPortfolioValueMeasurementCreditRiskMeasurementCreditPerformanceScorecards

InternalSoftware

ExternalVendorSoftware第二十九页，共三十六页。Appendix:BusinessProposalChecklistBusinessProposalSummaryCustomer,Rating,LegalStatus,LineofBusinessGuarantor,ifany…sameCollateral,ifany…truevalueexplainedOtherSupport,ifany...LegalormoralonlyTheTransaction…risksandmitigationAmount,purpose,termsandconditionsSourcesofrepayment…clearlyidentifiedClientpaymenthistoryandrelationship第三十页，共三十六页。Appendix:BusinessProposalChecklistRationaleandAnalysisCustomer,Guarantor,Collateral,SupportFacilityDescriptionAmount,purpose,tenor,pricing,terms,conditions,covenants,restrictionsetc.Consideraffectonabovee.g.newleverageFacilityRating?RepaymentCapacityFuturecashflow,conversionofassetsetc.ConsistencywithCreditStrategyandPolicyConfirm,andidentifyanyexceptionstopolicy,underwritingstandards,orprocessRiskadjustedreturnacceptability第三十一页，共三十六页。Appendix:BusinessProposalChecklistClientRelationshipBusinessstrategy:increase,maintainordecreaseexposureorexitrelationshipConsiderrelationtorating,latestriskpropaymentperformanceCustomerprofitability