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29March2023|3:04PMEDT
What’sTopofMindinMacroResearch:Continuedfocusonbank
stresses
Thisweek:
nBankstresses:agrowthheadwind,notahurricane,butplentyofuncertainty
nMarkets:pricingUSgrowthconcerns
nAIeconomicimpacts,nextAmericanenergyrevolution,Japaninflation
Transcript
JennyGrimberg
+1(212)934-0199|
jenny.grimberg@
GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC
AllisonNathan
+1(212)357-7504|
allison.nathan@
GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC
AshleyRhodes
+1(212)934-4876|
ashley.rhodes@
GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC
Bankstresses:agrowthheadwind,notahurricane,butplentyof
uncertainty
Amidtherecentbankingturmoil,wemaintainthatreducedcreditavailabilitywill
provetobeaheadwindthathelpstheFedkeepUSgrowthbelowpotential,nota
hurricanethatpushestheeconomyintorecession.Indeed,wecontinuetoexpecta
totalgrowthdragfromtighterlendingconditionsof0.25-0.5ppintheUSthisyear,
whichweexpecttomanifestinpartthroughweakerbusinessinvestmentbythe
manufacturing,commercialrealestate,andinformationsectors.Weestimatethis
dragtobemuchsmallerthanwhatwasobservedduringtheGlobalFinancialCrisis,
partlybecausebankswerealreadytighteningtheirlendingstandardsbeforethe
recentturmoil.Thatsaid,webelievetherisksareclearlyskewedtowardalarger
drag.Animmediatesourceofdownsideriskisanotherdepositrun,thelikelihoodof
whichcouldbemosteffectivelyreducedbyanunlimiteddepositguarantee,although
wecontinuetothinkthatsuchaguaranteeisunlikelybarringamoreintensecrisis.A
moresubtleriskcomesfromupwardpressureondepositrates,whichcouldcreate
greaterdownsiderisktocreditavailabilitythanweanticipate.Giventhesedownside
risks,althoughwecontinuetoforecastapeakFedfundsrateof5.25-5.5%,our
probability-weightedforecastfor2Q24isasubstantiallylower4%.
WealsocontinuetoexpecttheEuroareatoavoidarecessionamidthebanking
sectorturmoil.Indeed,theEuropeanbankingsectorisrelativelyhealthy,andother
growthdriversarehelpingoffsetthenegativegrowthimpactoftighterlending
standards,whichweestimatetobearound0.3pp,thoughwecautionthatthe
uncertaintyaroundthisestimateislarge.Accordingly,althoughwecontinueto
expecttheECBtohikeratesby25bpinMayandJuneinlightoflikelypersistent
highcoreinflation,weseerisksinbothdirections.IncontrasttotheUSandEurope,
Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto
/research/hedge.html.
_
GoldmanSachs
What’sTopofMindinMacroResearch
Chinahasbeenanoasisofrelativegrowthcalmamidtherecentbankstresses,andweexpectthattoremainthecaseasChina’spost-reopeningrecoverycontinuesandpolicymakersremainfocusedongrowth.
Weexpectthegrowthdragfromtighterlendingstandardstomanifestinpartthroughweakerbusinessinvestmentbythemanufacturing,realestate,andinformationsectors
%
0
510152025
Manufacturing
RealEstateIndustry
Education,Health,&Other…
PublicSector
Wholesale
Information
Professional&TechnicalServices
Leisure&Hospitality
Retail
EstimatedShareofUSBankLoans
ShareofUSInvestmentSpending
Utilities
Transportation&Warehouring
Construction
OtherServices
Administrative&Remediation
Mining&EnergyExtraction
Bankloanpercentagesreflecttheaverageofindustrysharesreportedbyregionalbanks(combinedloanbooksofCFG,FITB,HBAN,KEY,MTB,RF,SNV,andZION)andGSestimatesusingofficialdata(CensusDataQuarterlyFinancialReportforcorporatesandFederalReserveFlowofFundsdataforREITsandnonprofits);dataexcludesloanstofarmsandtootherbanks;GDPandemploymentsharesreflect2022data;investmentsharesreflect2019capitalstockaccountsasa%ofprivateandgovernmentfixedassetinvestment.
Source:Companydata,DepartmentofLabor,DepartmentofCommerce,FederalReserveBoard,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch.
Markets:pricingUSgrowthconcerns
USgrowthconcernshavemovedbackintothedriver’sseatformarkets,consistentwithourviewthatgrowthshockswouldplayalargerroleinmarketsthisyearafterthedominantroleforpolicyshocksthroughoutmuchof2022.TheseconcernsareveryapparentinUSrates,whichwecontinuetothinkarepricingtoomuchgrowthdamageand,accordingly,toodeepofaninversionatthefrontendofthecurve.USgrowthconcernsarealsobehindtheDollar’srecentunderperformance,andwerecentlyraisedour3/6mEUR/USDforecaststo1.05(from1.02)toaccountfortherecentdeteriorationintheUSgrowthoutlookwithalessfavorablemixofcreditandmonetarytighteningfortheDollar.GrowthconcernshavebeenlessapparentinUSequitymarkets,whichwecontinuetothinkowestotheviewthatthegrowthdamagefromtherecentbankstresseswillbelargebutheavilyconcentratedonsmallerbusinesses.Whilethismakesequitiesmorevulnerabletoanyintensificationofgrowthrisks,wethinkitisstillsafertopositionfordownsideinareasofthemarketthataremoredirectlyaffectedbycreditproblems,suchassmall-capequities,weakbalancesheetcompanies,industrialcyclicals,andcommercialrealestate.
Whatelseisonourradar?
nWe’refocusedontherecentemergenceofgenerativeartificialintelligence(AI),whichwethinkhasthepotentialtosignificantlyraiselaborproductivityandincrease
globalGDPoverthecomingdecades.Indeed,weestimatethatgenerativeAIcouldultimatelyraiseannualUSlaborproductivitygrowthbyroughly1.5ppovera10-year
29March20232
_
GoldmanSachs
What’sTopofMindinMacroResearch
periodandglobalannualproductivitygrowthbyslightlylessfollowingwidespreadadoptionasworkersdisplacedbyautomationeventuallybecomereemployedandnon-displacedworkersbecomemoreproductive.WeestimatethatthislaborproductivityboostcouldeventuallyincreaseannualglobalGDPby7%,althoughtheactualimpactofAIwillultimatelydependonitscapabilitiesandadoptiontimeline.
nWe’realsolookingaheadtothenextAmericanenergyrevolutionastheUSshalerevolutionisenteringitsageofmaturityandeventualdecline.Wethinkthisrevolutioncancomeintheformofrenewableenergy.Indeed,weestimatethattheUS’InflationReductionAct(IRA)—whichprovidesthemostsupportiveregulatoryenvironmentincleantechhistory—willimprovetheeconomicsofmostcleantechtechnologiesanddrive$3tnworthofinvestmentsacrossrenewableelectrons(solar,wind,EVs,energystorage)andrenewablemolecules(bio-energy,cleanhydrogen,carboncapture)by2032.This,inturn,couldallowrenewabletechnologiestodelivertwicethescaleofenergyproducedbyshale.
nFinally,we’rekeepingacloseeyeontheoutlookforwagegrowthandinflationinJapan.WhileinitialresultsfromJapaneseshuntowagenegotiationscameinwellaboveourestimates,weseeahighbarforsustainablyachievingtheBoJ’s2%inflationtargetfromtheperspectiveofwagegrowthgiventhestagnationinlaborproductivityinrecentyears,whichlikelyreflectsunderinvestmentincapitalstock.Assuch,wethinkthatachievingtheinflationtargetwouldrequireasignificantregimechangeintermsoflaborproductivity.
Relevantresearch
Bankstresses:agrowthheadwind,notahurricane,butplentyofuncertainty:USEconomicsAnalyst(3/28/2023);GlobalViews(3/27/2023);USDaily(3/27/2023);USEconomicsAnalyst(3/27/2023);China(3/26/2023);EuropeanViews(3/26/2023);AsiaViews(3/24/2023);EuropeanEconomicsAnalyst(3/19/2023);EuropeanDaily(3/16/2023);USEconomicsAnalyst(3/15/2023)
Markets:pricingUSgrowthconcerns:GlobalMarketViews(3/28/2023);GlobalFXTrader(3/24/2023);GlobalRatesTrader(3/24/2023);GlobalCreditTrader(3/23/2023);GlobalMarketsAnalyst(3/22/2023);GlobalMarketsDaily(2/21/2023)
Whatelseisonourradar:JapanEconomicsAnalyst(3/27/2023);AmericasTechnology(3/26/2023);GlobalEconomicsAnalyst(3/26/2023);Carbonomics(3/22/2023);JapanEconomicFlash(3/17/2023)
29March20233
_
2023
2024
-10
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-30
-50
CurrentActivityIndicator(mo,ann.;lhs)HistoricalGDP(yoy.;rhs)
Q42022GDP(yoy;rhs)
GSQ12023GDPEstimate(yoy;rhs)
222324
-70
-90
19
20
21
21
20
19
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
10
2023
2024
CurrentActivityIndicator(mo,ann.;lhs)HistoricalGDP(yoy.;rhs)
Q42022GDP(yoy;rhs)
GSQ12023GDPEstimate(yoy;rhs)
222324
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-10
-30
-50
-70
19
20
21
21
19
20
GoldmanSachs
What’sTopofMindinMacroResearch
Macroataglance
USGDPvs.CAI
GlobalGDPvs.CAI
%Chg.
%Chg.
15
10
5
%Chg.
14
US
Global
%Chg.
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
30
12
10
10
20232024
CurrentActivityIndicator(mo,ann.;lhs)HistoricalGDP(yoy.;rhs)
Q42022GDP(yoy;rhs)
GSQ12023GDPEstimate(yoy;rhs)
222324
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
Source:HaverAnalytics,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch.Source:HaverAnalytics,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch.
ChinaGDPvs.CAI
EuroareaGDPvs.CAI
China
%Chg.
Euroarea
%Chg.
20
15
%Chg.20
%Chg.
30
30
20232024
CurrentActivityIndicator(mo,ann.;lhs)HistoricalGDP(yoy.;rhs)
Q42022GDP(yoy;rhs)
GSQ12023GDPEstimate(yoy;rhs)
222324
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
Source:HaverAnalytics,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch.Source:HaverAnalytics,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch.
KeyGSeconomicandmarketforecasts
Equities
Returns(%)
Markets
Economics
E2024
E2023
2023
GS(CY)
2.5
1.7
6.0
0.7
2023
Mkt.
4.42
3.33
1.00
0.09
2024
Interestrates10Yr(%)
S&P500
12m
3m
E2023
E2024
12m
E2023P/E
Last
Last
FX
YTD
GDPgrowth(%)
Cons.(CY)
2.4
1.0
5.3
0.5
GS(CY)
2.6
1.5
4.6
1.3
Cons.(CY)
2.8
1.0
5.0
1.2
GS
4,000
$224
1%
Cons.
Cons.
GS
GS
(Q4/Q4)
Price
EPS
Global
US
China
EUR/$
GBP/$
$/JPY
$/CNY
Credit(bp)
18.3x
13.6x
13.3x
12.5x
US
1.10
1.25
125
6.50
1.05
1.18
132
6.80
4.00
2.25
0.75
3.75
1.08
1.23
131
6.86
4.20
2.75
0.90
4.00
2.5
1.1
6.5
0.6
0.0
21.0
10.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
5.0
6.0
3.55
2.29
0.36
3.32
--
--
--
S&P500
$237
5%
$248
12%
$222
0%
MXAPJ
Topix
STOXX600
Germany
Japan
UK
Growth
Euroarea
2023
2024
2024
Commodities
Consumer
Policyrates(%)
12m
3m
2Q23
4Q23
Last
Last
WageTracker2022(%)
CPI(%,yoy)
4.5
5.5
2.2
Unemp.Rate
3.6
6.7
Unemp.Rate
3.6
6.8
GS
4.63
3.25
2.00
-0.10
GS
5.38
3.50
2.00
-0.10
Mkt.
3.64
2.98
1.25
0.16
Q1
5.5
Q2
5.6
Q3
5.8
Q4
5.4
CPI
(%,yoy)
IG
HY
IG
HY
USD
US
Euroarea
China
Japan
US
Euroarea
China
79
2.03
8,968
1,963
84
3.50
9,500
2,050
94
3.25
11,000
2,050
147
498
196
503
117
400
150
415
115
390
145
405
2.9
2.5
2.2
CrudeOil,Brent($/bbl)
--
--
--
--
NatGas($/mmBtu)
EUR
--
--
--
--
--
--
Copper($/mt)
Gold($/troyoz)
GSCAIisameasureofcurrentgrowth.FormoreinformationonthemethodologyoftheCAIpleasesee“LessonsLearned:Re-engineeringOurCAIsinLightofthePandemicRecession,”GlobalEconomicsAnalyst,Sep.29,2020.MarketpricingasofMarch28,2023.
Source:Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch.
•TopofMind:Ourflagshipmonthlypublication,takingadeep-diveintothemacroeconomicissuesonthemindsofourclients.
29March20234
_
•MacroataGlance:Aweeklysnapshotofthemacrothemeswe’rewatchingandourlatestforecasts.
GoldmanSachs
What’sTopofMindinMacroResearch
•ExchangesatGoldmanSachs:Webringtogetherexpertsfromaroundthefirmandbeyondtodiscussdevelopmentsshapingindustries,markets,andtheglobaleconomy.
29March20235
_
GoldmanSachs
What’sTopofMindinMacroResearch
DisclosureAppendix
RegAC
We,JennyGrimberg,AllisonNathanandAshleyRhodes,herebycertifythatalloftheviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyreflectourpersonalviews,whichhavenotbeeninfluencedbyconsiderationsofthefirm’sbusinessorclientrelationships.
Unlessotherwisestated,theindividualslistedonthecoverpageofthisreportareanalystsinGoldmanSachs’GlobalInvestmentResearchdivision.
Disclosures
Regulatorydisclosures
DisclosuresrequiredbyUnitedStateslawsandregulations
Seecompany-specificregulatorydisclosuresaboveforanyofthefollowingdisclosuresrequiredastocompaniesreferredtointhisreport:managerorco-managerinapendingtransaction;1%orotherownership;compensationforcertainservices;typesofclientrelationships;managed/co-managedpublicofferingsinpriorperiods;directorships;forequitysecurities,marketmakingand/orspecialistrole.GoldmanSachstradesormaytradeasaprincipalindebtsecurities(orinrelatedderivatives)ofissuersdiscussedinthisreport.
Thefollowingareadditionalrequireddisclosures:Ownershipandmaterialconflictsofinterest:GoldmanSachspolicyprohibitsitsanalysts,professionalsreportingtoanalystsandmembersoftheirhouseholdsfromowningsecuritiesofanycompanyintheanalyst’sareaofcoverage.Analystcompensation:AnalystsarepaidinpartbasedontheprofitabilityofGoldmanSachs,whichincludesinvestmentbankingrevenues.Analystasofficerordirector:GoldmanSachspolicygenerallyprohibitsitsanalysts,personsreportingtoanalystsormembersoftheirhouseholdsfromservingasanofficer,directororadvisorofanycompanyintheanalyst’sareaofcoverage.Non-U.S.Analysts:Non-U.S.analystsmaynotbeassociatedpersonsofGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCandthereforemaynotbesubjecttoFINRARule2241orFINRARule2242restrictionsoncommunicationswithsubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbytheanalysts.
AdditionaldisclosuresrequiredunderthelawsandregulationsofjurisdictionsotherthantheUnitedStates
Thefollowingdisclosuresarethoserequiredbythejurisdictionindicated,excepttotheextentalreadymadeabovepursuanttoUnitedStateslawsandregulations.Australia:GoldmanSachsAustraliaPtyLtdanditsaffiliatesarenotauthoriseddeposit-takinginstitutions(asthattermisdefinedintheBankingAct1959(Cth))inAustraliaanddonotprovidebankingservices,norcarryonabankingbusiness,inAustralia.Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,isintendedonlyfor“wholesaleclients”withinthemeaningoftheAustralianCorporationsAct,unlessotherwiseagreedbyGoldmanSachs.Inproducingresearchreports,membersofGlobalInvestmentResearchofGoldmanSachsAustraliamayattendsitevisitsandothermeetingshostedbythecompaniesandotherentitieswhicharethesubjectofitsresearchreports.InsomeinstancesthecostsofsuchsitevisitsormeetingsmaybemetinpartorinwholebytheissuersconcernedifGoldmanSachsAustraliaconsidersitisappropriateandreasonableinthespecificcircumstancesrelatingtothesitevisitormeeting.Totheextentthatthecontentsofthisdocumentcontainsanyfinancialproductadvice,itisgeneraladviceonlyandhasbeenpreparedbyGoldmanSachswithouttakingintoaccountaclient’sobjectives,financialsituationorneeds.Aclientshould,beforeactingonanysuchadvice,considertheappropriatenessoftheadvicehavingregardtotheclient’sownobjectives,financialsituationandneeds.AcopyofcertainGoldmanSachsAustraliaandNewZealanddisclosureofinterestsandacopyofGoldmanSachs’AustralianSell-SideResearchIndependencePolicyStatementareavailableat:/disclosures/australia-new-zealand/index.html.Brazil:DisclosureinformationinrelationtoCVMResolutionn.20isavailableat/worldwide/brazil/area/gir/index.html.Whereapplicable,theBrazil-registeredanalystprimarilyresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreport,asdefinedinArticle20ofCVMResolutionn.20,isthefirstauthornamedatthebeginningofthisreport,unlessindicatedotherwiseattheendofthetext.Canada:Thisinformationisbeingprovidedtoyouforinformationpurposesonlyandisnot,andundernocircumstancesshouldbeconstruedas,anadvertisement,offeringorsolicitationbyGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCforpurchasersofsecuritiesinCanadatotradeinanyCanadiansecurity.GoldmanSachs&Co.LLCisnotregisteredasadealerinanyjurisdictioninCanadaunderapplicableCanadiansecuritieslawsandgenerallyisnotpermittedtotradeinCanadiansecuritiesandmaybeprohibitedfromsellingcertainsecuritiesandproductsincertainjurisdictionsinCanada.IfyouwishtotradeinanyCanadiansecuritiesorotherproductsinCanadapleasecontactGoldmanSachsCanadaInc.,anaffiliateofTheGoldmanSachsGroupInc.,oranotherregisteredCanadiandealer.HongKong:FurtherinformationonthesecuritiesofcoveredcompaniesreferredtointhisresearchmaybeobtainedonrequestfromGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.India:FurtherinformationonthesubjectcompanyorcompaniesreferredtointhisresearchmaybeobtainedfromGoldmanSachs(India)SecuritiesPrivateLimited,ResearchAnalyst-SEBIRegistrationNumberINH000001493,951-A,RationalHouse,AppasahebMaratheMarg,Prabhadevi,Mumbai400025,India,CorporateIdentityNumberU74140MH2006FTC160634,Phone+912266169000,Fax+912266169001.GoldmanSachsmaybeneficiallyown1%ormoreofthesecurities(assuchtermisdefinedinclause2(h)theIndianSecuritiesContracts(Regulation)Act,1956)ofthesubjectcompanyorcompaniesreferredtointhisresearchreport.Japan:Seebelow.Korea:Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,isintendedonlyfor“professionalinvestors”withinthemeaningoftheFinancialServicesandCapitalMarketsAct,unlessotherwiseagreedbyGoldmanSachs.FurtherinformationonthesubjectcompanyorcompaniesreferredtointhisresearchmaybeobtainedfromGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.,SeoulBranch.NewZealand:GoldmanSachsNewZealandLimitedanditsaffiliatesareneither“registeredbanks”nor“deposittakers”(asdefinedintheReserveBankofNewZealandAct1989)inNewZealand.Thisresearch,andanyaccesstoit,isintendedfor“wholesaleclients”(asdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersAct2008)unlessotherwiseagreedbyGoldmanSachs.AcopyofcertainGoldmanSachsAustraliaandNewZealanddisclosureofinterestsisavailableat:
/disclosures/australia-new-zealand/index.html
.Russia:ResearchreportsdistributedintheRussianFederationarenot
advertisingasdefinedintheRussianlegislation,butareinformationandanalysisnothavingproductpromotionastheirmainpurposeanddonotprovideappraisalwithinthemeaningoftheRussianlegislationonappraisalactivity.ResearchreportsdonotconstituteapersonalizedinvestmentrecommendationasdefinedinRussianlawsandregulations,arenotaddressedtoaspecificclient,andarepreparedwithoutanalyzingthefinancialcircumstances,investmentprofilesorriskprofilesofclients.GoldmanSachsassumesnoresponsibilityforanyinvestmentdecisionsthatmaybetakenbyaclientoranyotherpersonbasedonthisresearchreport.Singapore:GoldmanSachs(Singapore)Pte.(CompanyNumber:198602165W),whichisregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingapore,acceptslegalresponsibilityforthisresearch,andshouldbecontactedwithrespecttoanymattersarisingfrom,orinconnectionwith,thisresearch.Taiwan:Thismaterialisforreferenceonlyandmustnotbereprintedwithoutpermission.Investorsshouldcarefullyconsidertheirowninvestmentrisk.Investmentresultsaretheresponsibilityoftheindividualinvestor.UnitedKingdom:PersonswhowouldbecategorizedasretailclientsintheUnitedKingdom,assuchtermisdefinedintherulesoftheFinancialConductAuthority,shouldreadthisresearchinconjunctionwithpriorGoldmanSachsresearchonthecoveredcompaniesreferredtohereinandshouldrefertotheriskwarningsthathavebeensenttothembyGoldmanSachsInternational.Acopyoftheseriskswarnings,andaglossaryofcertainfinancialtermsusedinthisreport,areavailablefromGoldmanSachsInternationalonrequest.
EuropeanUnionandUnitedKingdom:DisclosureinformationinrelationtoArticle6(2)oftheEuropeanCommissionDelegatedRegulation(EU)(2016/958)supplementingRegulation(EU)No596/2014oftheEuropeanParliamentandoftheCouncil(includingasthatDelegatedRegulationisimplementedintoUnitedKingdomdomesticlawandregulationfollowingtheUnitedKingdom’sdeparturefromtheEuropeanUnionandtheEuropeanEconomicArea)withregardtoregulatorytechnicalstandardsforthetechnicalarrangementsforobjectivepresentationofinvestmentrecommendationsorotherinformationrecommendingorsuggestinganinvestmentstrategyandfordisclosureofparticularinterestsorindicationsof
29March20236
_
GoldmanSachs
What’sTopofMindinMacroResearch
conflictsofinterestisavailableat/disclosures/europeanpolicy.htmlwhichstatestheEuropeanPolicyforManagingConflictsofInterestinConnectionwithInvestmentResearch.
Japan:GoldmanSachsJapanCo.,Ltd.isaFinancialInstrumentDealerregisteredwiththeKantoFinancialBureauunderregistrationnumberKinsho69,andamemberofJapanSecuritiesDealersAssociation,FinancialFuturesAssociationofJapanTypeIIFinancialInstrumentsFirmsAssociation,TheInvestmentTrustsAssociation,Japan,andJapanInvestmentAdvisersAssociation.Salesandpurchaseofequitiesaresubjecttocommissionpre-determinedwithclientsplusconsumptiontax.Seecompany-specificdisclosuresastoanyapplicabledisclosuresrequiredbyJapanesestockexchanges,theJapaneseSecuritiesDealersAssociationortheJapaneseSecuritiesFinanceCompany.
Globalproduct;distributingentities
GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchproducesanddistributesresearchproductsforclientsofGoldmanSachsonaglobalbasis.AnalystsbasedinGoldmanSachsofficesaroundtheworldproduceresearchonindustriesandcompanies,andresearchonmacroeconomics,currencies,commoditiesandportfoliostrategy.ThisresearchisdisseminatedinAustraliabyGoldmanSachsAustraliaPtyLtd(ABN21006797897);inBrazilbyGoldmanSachsdoBrasilCorretoradeTítuloseValoresMobiliáriosS.A.;PublicCommunicationChannelGoldmanSachsBrazil:08007275764and/orcontatogoldmanbrasil@.AvailableWeekdays(exceptholidays),from9amto6pm.CanaldeComunicaçãocomoPúblicoGoldmanSachsBrasil:08007275764e/oucontatogoldmanbrasil@.Horáriodefuncionamento:segunda-feiraàsexta-feira(excetoferiados),das9hàs18h;inCanadabyGoldmanSachs&Co.LLC;inHongKongbyGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.;inIndiabyGoldmanSachs(India)SecuritiesPrivateLtd.;inJapanbyGoldmanSachsJapanCo.,Ltd.;intheRepublicofKoreabyGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.,SeoulBranch;inNewZealandbyGoldmanSachsNewZealandLimited;inRussiabyOOOGoldmanSachs;inSingaporebyGoldmanSachs(Singapore)Pte.(CompanyNumber:198602165W);andintheUnitedStatesofAmericabyGoldmanSachs&Co.LLC.GoldmanSachsInternationalhasapprovedthisresearchinconnectionwithitsdistributionintheUnitedKingdom.
GoldmanSachsInternational(“GSI”),authorisedbythePrudentialRegulationAuthority(“PRA”)andregulatedbytheFinancialConductAuthority(“FCA”)andthePRA,hasapprovedthisresearchinconnectionwithitsdistributionintheUnitedKingdom.
EuropeanEconomicArea:GSI,authorisedbythePRAandregulatedbytheFCAandthePRA,disseminatesresearchinthefollowingjurisdictionswithintheEuropeanEconomicArea:theGrandDuchyofLuxembourg,Italy,theKingdomofBelgium,theKingdomofDenmark,theKingdomofNorway,theRepublicofFinlandandtheRepublicofIreland;GSI-SuccursaledeParis(Parisbranch)whichisauthorisedbytheFrenchAutoritédecontrôleprudentieletderesolution(“ACPR”)andregulatedbytheAutoritédecontrôleprudentieletderesolutionandtheAutoritédesmarchesfinanciers(“AMF”)disseminatesresearchinFrance;GSI-SucursalenEspaña(Madridbranch)authorizedinSpainbytheComisiónNacionaldelMercadodeValoresdisseminatesresearchintheKingdomofSpain;GSI-SwedenBankfilial(Stockholmbranch)isauthorizedbytheSFSAasa“thirdcountrybranch”inaccordancewithChapter4,Section4oftheSwedishSecuritiesandMarketAct(Sw.lag(2007:528)omvärdepappersmarknaden)disseminatesresearchintheKingdomofSweden;GoldmanSachsBankEuropeSE(“GSBE”)isacreditinstitutionincorporatedinGermanyand,withintheSingleSupervisoryMechanism,subjecttodirectprudentialsupervisionbytheEuropeanCentralBankandinotherr
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