MIT的物流与供应链管理

MIT的物流与供应链管理第1页/共79页NobelPrizeinEconomics2002(announcedtoday,09Oct2002)"forhavingintegratedinsightsfrompsychologicalresearchintoeconomicscience,especiallyconcerninghumanjudgmentanddecision-makingunderuncertainty""forhavingestablishedlaboratoryexperimentsasatoolinempiricaleconomicanalysis,especiallyinthestudyofalternativemarketmechanisms"

DanielKahneman

VernonL.Smith

1/2oftheprize

1/2oftheprizeUSAandIsraelUSAPrincetonUniversity

Princeton,NJ,USAGeorgeMasonUniversity

Fairfax,VA,USAb.1934b.1927第2页/共79页BODYSCANNERBYTC2DisruptiveTechnology?第3页/共79页InvasionoftheBodyScanners

Digitallyspeaking第4页/共79页PartoftheProcess第5页/共79页PERSONAL

DIGITAL

PROFILE第6页/共79页Customer:HowwillIlookinthisdress?Retailer:WhatshouldweorderforFall?Manufacturer:What’sthenextdemand?DataminingDataMartRetailersAccessoriesJewelry,ShoesShiseido,CoachHarrod's,M&SGucci,Bally'sGuerlain,PoloUSD,DEMEURO,INRYEN,YUANTRAVELHEALTHEDUCATIONARTS&MUSICCelebrityGalleryWorldHistoryofFashionTheWayWeWoreDataWarehouseBODYSCANeFASHIONEBCB2BAnneKleinLevis,BebeTalbots,AXChina,India,SiamFABRICSUPPLIERSDataWarehouseFABRICBROKERINDEPENDENTDESIGNBROKERGlobalDesignWAREHOUSEMEDIA/POPTailors------------------ContractShopsAmateur'sDesignForumManufacturingTailorBrokerOrderIndividualTailorsOn-callPreferenceSurveySHIPPINGMALLamJuliaRobertsFinancialRETURNCRMDONATESalvationArmyCAREGoodwilleBAYBoutiquesJCPenneyOutletStoresAmateurModelsSHIPPINGERPRETAILERSMACYS,NORDSTROM,BLOOMINGDALESPERSONALPROFILESOFTWAREPERSONALPROFILEANALYSISPortalManufacturer第7页/共79页CustomerRelationshipManagementEXPECTATIONvsRESULTSource:AMRResearch1999OctoberUNCERTAINTY第8页/共79页Uncertainty…….

Lackofrule-basedresolution:expectationvsresultFinancialImpactCostofCorrectionSideEffects

第9页/共79页Uncertainty…….

FinancialImpactOpportunitylost:unabletorampupEconomicloss:unabletorampdown

第10页/共79页Source:ForresterResearch第11页/共79页Source:Forrester第12页/共79页Uncertainty…….

CostofCorrectionResourcesInventory

第13页/共79页Uncertainty…….

SideEffects(undesirable)TackleonlysymptomsNegativefallout

第14页/共79页EBMinSCMofferslittleADAPTABILITYtoSENSEandRESPOND

(SupplyChainEventmis-Management)InsulationofPlanningfromExecutionIndividualoptimisationnotSCoptimisationSmart-HubandDumb-SpokeConfigurationIsolationofEnvironmentofOperation第15页/共79页Source:Forrester第16页/共79页TraditionalAdaptiveSource:Forrester第17页/共79页Whattodo?UnderstandcustomerneedMonitorsupplyavailabilityManagesupplychainpartnerperformanceDecentralizeproblemsolvingMonitorcorrectiveactionsandfeedbackIncludemacro-economicindicators第18页/共79页EvolvingAnalyticalToolsandEarlyUsersSource:Forrester第19页/共79页PortfolioofRealOptionsSource:HP&Forrester第20页/共79页Uncertainty…….

FinancialImpactOpportunitylost:unabletorampupEconomicloss:unabletorampdown

第21页/共79页Uncertainty…….

Push-PullCaseStudybyDSL

第22页/共79页Howtoreaddiagrams第23页/共79页第24页/共79页Uncertainty…..LeadTime

第25页/共79页Performance……….

第26页/共79页第27页/共79页第28页/共79页Performance……….

第29页/共79页Forsameleadtime,optimizedsupplychainofferslowercostSafetyStockCostvsLeadTime

ManagingFinancialCostofUncertainty第30页/共79页第31页/共79页Uncertainty…..Procurement

第32页/共79页

Push-PullSupplyChainsTheSupplyChainTimeLineLowUncertainty

HighUncertaintyCustomersSuppliersPUSHSTRATEGYPULLSTRATEGYPush-PullBoundary第33页/共79页FromMake-to-StockModel….ConfigurationAssemblySuppliers第34页/共79页toAssemble-to-OrderModelConfigurationAssemblySuppliers第35页/共79页PLM

acauseofUNCERTAINTYin

SCM

Source:Forrester第36页/共79页CPLM....CPFRSource:Forrester第37页/共79页PLMSource:Forrester第38页/共79页What’swrongwiththisillustration?Imaginationisoutoffocus!!Source:Forrester第39页/共79页InventoryManagementOrderProcessingE-BusinessVendorManagementTaxElectronicCommerceFinancialsMarketingExecutiveInformationInventoryProgramsAccountsPayableStockTransfersWarehouseInboundQA1ReceivingRepairOrdersPurchasingAccountsReceivableOutboundQAShippingOrderServicesQuotingCreditCustomerManagementDistributedDatainConnectedEnvironments第40页/共79页Evolution?Canthisevolutionary“vision”succeed?

Source:Forrester第41页/共79页Real-timeDataLayerD2BSemanticWeb802.11UWBdERPInternet0Internet1Internet2A

G

E

N

T

SSECURITYRealTimeDistributedDataInfra-de-structurewithEmbeddedAgents第42页/共79页TheSemanticWebBus(WebVan!!)第43页/共79页

TimBerners-Lee:SemanticWeb

第44页/共79页Observation199883millionaccesstheInternetinlanguagesotherthanEnglishProjection200570%of1billionusersmaynotspeakEnglishFACT46%USbusinessrefuseint’lorderbecausetheylackmeanstoprocessthem.JapaneseSpanishGermanFrenchChineseDutchKoreanSwedishItalian第45页/共79页177118251886193919771997IndustrialRevolution1800InformationEvolution18531913196920052025RapidAdoptionIntroductionofTechnology185319131969202520612081ConceptualadvancesoccurabouttwiceacenturyandleadtowealthofnationsTextileRailwayAutoComputerDistributedIntelligenceNanotechSource:NormanPoire,EconomistAGENTS第46页/共79页LocatingthePush-PullBoundary第47页/共79页PLANEXECUTESENSERESPONDDEMANDEXCEPTION第48页/共79页SupplyChainEvolvesto...CustomerCustomer’sDCMANUFACTURERRawmaterialSUPPLIERSStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreDCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonStorePlantDCPlantDCREALTIMEePCePCdatafromRFIDTagReplenishmentneedsConfirmationLoadsStoreOrdersStatusImmediateReplenishmentneedsFutureshippingneedsReplenishmentneedsdeterminedfromRFIDTaginfo“IntelligentSignal”PORTALS/ExchangeTransportCustomerInfoCenterManufacturerHQrealtimeRFIDdataPersonalCareConsumerTissueHealthCareInformationAgentInventoryEarlyWarningAgentTLBAgentCross-DockingAgentAgentsbasedAdaptiveNetworkConsumptionInventoryDataDCtoMfr第49页/共79页SupplyChainsReal-timeAdaptableDemandNetworks第50页/共79页DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreIndustrybestnowversuswhatcanbeachieved:

Needtoevolve

Day1Day3Day4Day5Day6Day7Day8Day2Day0=Product=InfoDay7Received,unloaded&stockedonstoreshelvesSCOTTDay1Day3Day4Day5Day6Day7Day8Day2Day0=Non-value-addedtime=Product=InfoReplenishedin7daysPortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerReplenishedin13hoursroomforimprovementtounder10hrs第51页/共79页DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay1Day3Day4Day5Day6Day7Day8Day2Day0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreConsumerBuysSCOTT

2pmDay0=Product=InfoFutureSC:ConsumerPurchase第52页/共79页DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCPortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product=InfoRFIDSmartTagatPOSread2pmDay0SCOTTDay1Day3Day4Day5Day6Day7Day8Day2Day0FutureSC:RFID“Smart”TagRead第53页/共79页DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay1Day3Day4Day5Day6Day7Day8Day2Day0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product=Info0101100110111010001112pmDay0RFIDSmarttagdatatransmittedinstantly010110011011101000111FutureSC:RFID“Smart”TagDataTransmittedinRealTime第54页/共79页DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay1Day3Day4Day5Day6Day7Day8Day2Day0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product=Info0101100110111010001110101100110111010001112:10pmDay0Replenishmentneedsreceivedbyscheduling(TLB)systemsFutureSC:RFID“Smart”TagDataReceivedinRealTime第55页/共79页DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay1Day3Day4Day5Day6Day7Day8Day2Day0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product=Info0101100110111010001112:35pm,Day0SystemdetectsOOSdangeratcustomer&co-ordinatesrapid-responseshipment(reallocationofenrouteloadevaluated)010110011011101000111010110011011101000111010110011011101000111FutureSC:RFID“Smart”TagDatahelpsDetectOOSDanger第56页/共79页DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay1Day3Day4Day5Day6Day7Day8Day2Day0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product=InfoSmartPlannerinterrogatesdemandfilterFutureSC:RFID“Smart”TagDatacoupledwithSmartPlanner第57页/共79页DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay1Day3Day4Day5Day6Day7Day8Day2Day0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product=InfoSmartPlannerintegratesinfo:currentinventory,shipment,planning

FutureSC:RFID“Smart”TagDatacoupledwithSmartPlanner第58页/共79页DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay1Day3Day4Day5Day6Day7Day8Day2Day0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product=InfoSmartPlannerexecuteschanges,broadcastsplan,exceptions,optionsFutureSC:RFID“Smart”TagDatacoupledwithSmartPlanner第59页/共79页DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay1Day3Day4Day5Day6Day7Day8Day2Day0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product=Info4pmDay0TrailerloadedFutureSC:SmartPlanningseguestoTLB第60页/共79页DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay1Day3Day4Day5Day6Day7Day8Day2Day0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product=Info10pmDay0CustomerDCreceivesSCOTTSCOTTFutureSC:SCOTTPaperTissuereceivedatCDC第61页/共79页DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay1Day3Day4Day5Day6Day7Day8Day2Day0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product=Info11pmDay0CustomerDCshipsSCOTTSCOTTFutureSC:CDCShipstoStore第62页/共79页DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCDay1Day3Day4Day5Day6Day7Day8Day2Day0PortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStore=Product=InfoReplenishedin13hoursroomforimprovementtounder10hrs3amDay1Received,unloaded&stockedonstoreshelvesSCOTTFutureSC:RFID“Smart”tagdataaidsReplenishmentin13hrs第63页/共79页DCDCDCPaperMedicalCottonPlantDCPlantDCCustomerStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreStoreDay1Day3Day4Day5Day6Day7Day8Day2Day0=Product=Info3amDay1Received,unloaded&stockedonstoreshelvesSCOTTDay1Day3Day4Day5Day6Day7Day8Day2Day0=Non-value-addedtime=Product=InfoReplenishedin7daysPortalTransportCustomerCenterManufacturerReplenishedin13hoursroomforimprovementtounder10hrsFutureSC:Canyouaffordtoexclude

RFID“Smart”tagdata?第64页/共79页2008:P&Gshortensreplenishmentcyclefrom120daysto1day[1]Source:P&G,Forrester第65页/共79页2008:P&Gshortensreplenishmentcyclefrom120daysto1day[2]Source:P&G,Forrester第66页/共79页2008:P&Gshortensreplenishmentcyclefrom120daysto1day[3]Source:P&G,Forrester第67页/共79页2008:P&Gshortensreplenishmentcyclefrom120daysto1day[4]Source:P&G,Forrester第68页/共79页2008:P&Gshortensreplenishmentcyclefrom120daysto1day[5]Source:P&G,Forrester第69页/共79页2008:P&Gshortensreplenishmentcyclefrom120daysto1day[6]Source:P&G,Forrester第70页/共79页2008:P&Gshortensreplenishmentcyclefrom120daysto1day[7]Source:P&G,Forrester第71页/共79页2008:P&G