考研英语外报阅读8

Passagel:Itpaystogive

Allowingconsumerstosettheirownpricescanbegoodforbusiness;

evenbetterifthefirmsgivesomeofittocharity

INOCTOBER2007Radiohead,aBritishrockgroup,releaseditsfirst

albuminfouryears,“InRainbows”,asadirectdigitaldownload.The

movedrewafairbitofattention(includingfromthisnewspaper)notonly

becauseitrepresentedatechnologicalthumbintheeyetothetraditional

musicindustry,butalsobecausethebandallowedlistenerstopay

whatevertheywishedforit.Some60%ofthosewhoseizedthe

opportunitypaidnothingatall,butthebandseemedpleasedwiththe

result;oneestimatehaditearningnearly$3mfromtheexperiment.

Onegroupoutsidethemusicindustrytakinganinterestwasatrioof

professorsthenattheRadySchoolofManagementattheUniversityof

California,SanDiego:AyeletGneezy,UriGneezyandLeifNelson(who

isnowattheHaasSchoolofBusinessattheUniversityofCalifornia,

Berkeley).Inspired,theydesignedaseriesofexperimentstogauge

whetherpay-what-you-wantpricingwouldworkforotherbusinesses.

Theirmostrecentexperiment,co-authoredwithAmberBrownofDisney

ResearchandpublishedinSciecce,alsostirredinanewelement:wouldit

makeanydifferenceiffirmsdonatedsomeofthepay-what-you-wantfee

tocharity?

Theauthorssetuptheirpricingexperimentattheexitofaroller-coaster

rideatalargeamusementpark.Riderswereofferedaphotographof

themselves,snappedmid-coast.Theusualpricewas$12.95,butonone

day,ridersweretoldtheycouldpaywhattheywished,includingtaking

thephotoforfree.Asecondgroupwaschargedthefullpricebuttoldthat

halfthemoneywouldgotoawell-regardedhealthcharity.Yetathird

groupcouldsetthepriceandseehalfoftheirchosenamountdonated.

Allowingcustomerstosetthepricedramaticallyincreasedthepercentage

ofbuyers—fromlessthan1%to8%.Evenaccountingforthosewhotook

afreephoto,theamusementparkcollectedmorerevenueonthe

pay-what-you-wantdaythanwhensellingfortheusualfixedprice.

Theauthorsalsofoundthatofthecustomerswhowereallowedtopay

whattheywant,thosewhoweretoldthathalfthemoneywouldgotoa

goodcausepaidsubstantiallymorethanthosewhowerenottoldabout

thecharitabledonation—tothepointthatrevenuemorethantripled.(The

charitydid,indeed,getitspromisedcut.)Thesmallestnumberof

purchases,meanwhile,camethedaythatcustomershadtopaythefull

$12.95buthalfwasdonated.

Thereforemorethansimplealtruismwasmotivatingthecustomerswho

gavemoneyforaphototheycouldhavehadforfree."Oneofthequirks

aboutpayingwhatyouwant,^^suggestsMrNelson,“isthatitstartsto

signalsomethingaboutwhoyouare.Everydollaryouspendisadirect

reflectionofhowmuchyoucareaboutthischarityandwhatkindof

personyouare.Noonewantstogocheapwithacharity.^^Hecallsthis

phenomenon“sharedsocialresponsibility^^:insteadofpassively

acceptingafirm'sassertionofitscharitabledonations,thecustomermust

activelyagreetogivemoneytocharity,anddeterminehowmuch.

Buthowwidespreadcouldsharedsocialresponsibilitybe?MsGneezyis

thefirsttopointoutthatcustomer-determinedpricingworksbestfor

productswithlowmarginalcosts.Sincepublishingtheirfindings,the

researchershavespokentoseveralcompaniesinterestedinpursuing

similarexperimentswiththeirproducts,includingsoftwaredevelopers

andvideo-gamedesigners.Butofferingflexiblepricingonavirtual

productonline,insteadofinpersonatanamusementpark,maymakeit

easierforpeopleto“gocheap“evenifacharityisinvolved.Combining

customer-determinedpricing,corporatesocialresponsibility,and

increasedprofitswillbetrickytopulloff,andnoteverycompanywillbe

abletodoit-justlikenoteverybandcanputtheiralbumonlineforfree

andstillprofit.

Passage2:Whydofirmsexist?

RonaldCoase,theauthorof“TheNatureoftheFirm”(1937),turns

100onDecember29th

FORphilosophersthegreatexistentialquestionis:"Whyisthere

somethingratherthannothing?^^Formanagementtheoriststhemore

mundaneequivalentis:"Whydofirmsexist?Whyisn'teverythingdone

bythemarket?55

Todaymostpeopleliveinamarketeconomy,andcentralplanningis

rememberedasthegreatesteconomicdisasterofthe20thcentury.Yet

mostpeoplealsospendtheirworkinglivesincentrallyplanned

bureaucraciescalledfirms.Theystickwiththesameemployerforyears,

ratherthanregularlyreturningtothejobsmarket.Theylabourtofulfilthe

"strategicplans“oftheircorporatecommissars.JohnJacobAstofs

AmericanFurCompanymadehimtherichestmaninAmericainthe

1840s.Butitneverconsistedofmorethanahandfulofpeople.Today

Astor'scompanywouldnotregisterasabliponthecorporatehorizon.

Firmsroutinelyemploythousandsofworkersandmovebillionsof

dollars-worthofgoodsandserviceswithintheirborders.

Whyhavethese“islandsofconsciouspower”survivedinthesurrounding

“oceanofunconsciousco-operation"，toborrowaphrasefromD.H.

Robertson,aneconomist?Classicaleconomicshadlittletosayaboutthis

question.AdamSmithopened“TheWealthofNations“withawonderful

descriptionofthedivisionoflabourinapinfactory,buthesaidnothing

aboutthebosseswhohiredthepin-makersorthemanagerswho

organisedthem.Smith'ssuccessorssaidevenless,eitherignoringthepin

factoryentirelyortreatingitasatediousblackbox.Theypreferredto

focusonthesearatherthantheislands.

Whoknowsthesecretoftheblackbox?

Themanwhorestoredthepinfactorytoitsrightfulplaceattheheartof

economictheorycelebrateshis100thbirthdayonDecember29th.The

economicsprofessionwasslowtorecogniseRonaldCoase'sgenius.He

firstexpoundedhisthinkingaboutthefirminalectureinDundeein1932,

whenhewasjust21yearsold.Nobodymuchlistened.Hepublished”The

NatureoftheFirm^^fiveyearslater.Itwentlargelyunread.

ButMrCoaselabouredonregardless:asecondseminalarticleon”The

ProblemofSocialCost”laidtheintellectualfoundationsofthe

deregulationrevolutionofthe1980s.Eventually,MrCoaseacquiredan

armyoffollowers,suchasOliverWilliamson,whofleshedouthisideas.

In1991,aged80,hewasawardedaNobelprize.Farfromrestingonhis

laurels,MrCoasewillpublishanewbookin2011,withNingWangof

ArizonaStateUniversity,on“HowChinaBecameCapitalisf.

Hiscentralinsightwasthatfirmsexistbecausegoingtothemarketallthe

timecanimposeheavytransactioncosts.Youneedtohireworkers,

negotiatepricesandenforcecontracts,tonamebutthreetime-consuming

activities.Afirmisessentiallyadeviceforcreatinglong-termcontracts

whenshort-termcontractsaretoobothersome.Butifmarketsareso

inefficient,whydon'tfirmsgoongettingbiggerforever?MrCoasealso

pointedoutthattheselittleplannedsocietiesimposetransactioncostsof

theirown,whichtendtoriseastheygrowbigger.Theproperbalance

betweenhierarchiesandmarketsisconstantlyrecalibratedbytheforces

ofcompetition:entrepreneursmaychoosetolowertransactioncostsby

formingfirmsbutgiantfirmseventuallybecomesluggishand

uncompetitive.

Howmuchlightdoes“TheNatureoftheFirm^^throwontoday5s

corporatelandscape?TheyoungMrCoasefirstgrewinterestedinthe

workingsoffirmswhenhetravelledaroundAmerica'sindustrial

heartlandonascholarshipin1931-32.Heabandonedhistextbooksand

askedbusinessmenwhytheydidwhattheydid.Hehaslongchidedhis

felloweconomistsforscrawlinghieroglyphicsonblackboardsratherthan

lookingatwhatitactuallytakestorunabusiness.Soitseemsreasonable

totesthisideasbythesameempiricalstandards.

MrCoase'stheorycontinuestoexplainsomeofthemostpuzzling

problemsinmodernbusiness.Taketheriseofvastandhighlydiversified

businessgroupsintheemergingworld,suchasIndia'sTatagroupand

Turkey'sKocHolding.ManyWesternobserversdismisstheseasrelics

ofaprimitiveformofcapitalism.Buttheymakeperfectsensewhenyou

considerthetransactioncostsofgoingtothemarket.Wheretrustin

establishedinstitutionsisscarce,itmakessenseforcompaniestostretch

theirbrandsovermanyindustries.Andwherecapitalandlabourmarkets

areinefficient,itmakesequalsenseforcompaniestoallocatetheirown

capitalandtraintheirownloyalists.

ButMrCoase'snarrowfocusontransactioncostsneverthelessprovides

onlyapartialexplanationofthepoweroffirms.Theriseofthe

neo-Coasianschoolofeconomistshasledtoafiercebacklashamong

managementtheoristswhochampionthe"resource-basedtheory“ofthe

firm.Theyarguethatactivitiesareconductedwithinfirmsnotonly

becausemarketsfail,butalsobecausefirmssucceed:theycanmarshala

widerangeofresources-particularlynebulousonessuchas''corporate

culture"and"collectiveknowledge"—thatmarketscannotaccess.

Companiescanorganiseproductionandcreateknowledgeinuniqueways.

Theycanalsomakelong-termbetsoninnovationsthatwillredefine

marketsratherthanmerelysatisfydemand.MrCoase'stheoryof“market

failure”needstobecomplementedbyatheoryof"organisational

advantages”.

Allthisundoubtedlycomplicates“TheNatureoftheFirm^^.Butitalso

vindicatesthetwindecisionsthatMrCoasemadeallthoseyearsagoasa

youngstudentattheLondonSchoolofEconomics:tolookinsidethe

blackboxratherthansimplyignoringit,andtoexaminebusinesses,not

justfiddlewiththeories.Isittoomuchtohopethatotherpractitionersof

thedismalsciencewillfollowhisexampleandstudytherealworld?

Passage3:Academicview:Virtuouscircles

DanielCSmith,deanofIndianaUniversity'sKelleySchoolofBusiness,

saysthatuniversitiesneedtofindnewwaystocombatrisingtuitioncosts

THEcurrenteconomicsofhighereducation,atleastinAmerica,arenot

sustainable.Ashigh-payingmanufacturingjobsdisappear,college

educationbecomesanecessity.Yet,formorethanadecade,tuitionfees

haverisenatmanytimestherateofinflation.What'smore,theforces

drivingtheseincreaseswillnotabate.America'spublicuniversitiesface

steepcutsinstatesupport,risinghealthcareandenergycosts.Andwhen

cashistight,thephilanthropistswhoaresoimportanttouniversities

disappear.Thismeansthatnotonlywillthepriceoftuitioncontinueto

increase,butuniversities5abilitytoofferfinancialaidtostudentsisalso

hit.

IfthecostofattendinganAmericanuniversitybecomesprohibitiveit

willthreatenthecountry'slong-termglobalcompetitiveness.Itis,

therefore,notonlyaproblemforstudentsbutalsoforbusinessesand

society.Toremaincompetitive,Americaneedsanewmodelofstudent

financialsupport;highereducationandtheprivatesectorhaveajoint

responsibilitytoinnovateincreatingsuchmodels.

Enterthebusinessschool.Businessschoolsareperfectlypositionedto

developnewwaysofpayingforhighereducation.AttheKelleySchool,

weareexploringan"educationcircleoflife”modeloffinancialsupport

forstudents.

Itbeginswiththeimmediateneedsofbusinesses-particularlysmall-to

mid-sizecompaniesthatarethegrowthenginesoftheeconomy.Inorder

togrowandhiremoretalent,thesecompaniesmustexploreopportunities

beyondUSborders.Butmanylacktheskillsorglobalcontactstodoso.

Mosttopbusinessschools,ontheotherhand,haveaglobalnetworkof

alumni,corporatefriendsandgovernmentcontacts.Theyalsohave

superbstudentsandfaculty.Ourideaistocreateaconsultingconsortium

inwhichteamsofstudentshelpclientcompaniesidentify,assessand

capitaliseonglobalgrowthopportunities.Usingdistance-learning

technologies,studentteamscollaboratewithinternationalalumni,

studentsatpartneruniversitiesandglobalcorporatepartnerstopair

mid-sizeAmericanfirmswithglobalopportunities.

Sowheredoestuitionsupportcomein?Thefirmspayafeeforthe

studentconsultingservices.Aportionofthefeegoestowardsthe

students5tuitioncosts;theremainderispaidintoanendowmentaccount

thatprovidesfinancialaidfordeservingstudents.Contractsarealso

structuredsothataportionofnewrevenuegeneratedfromtheglobal

ventureswill,forasetperiodoftime,addtothescholarshipendowment

account.

Theeducationcircleoflifecreatesgrowthformid-sizefirms,whichcan

inturnspuremployment.Theinitiativeprovidesstudentswithhands-on

experienceandintheprocesscreatesasustainablerevenuestreamforthe

schooltooffsetrisingtuitioncosts.

Passage4:Afistfulofdust

Thetrueeffectofwindblownmaterialisonlynowcomingtobe

appreciated

Climatescience

ONMAY26th2008Germanyturnedred.Thewindsofchange,though,

weremeteorological,notpolitical.Unusualweatherbroughtiron-rich

dustfromAfricatoEurope,notonlyalteringthecolourofroofsandcars

onthecontinentbutalso,accordingtorecentcalculationsbyMax

Bangert,agraduatestudentattheKarlsruheInstituteofTechnology,

makingtheplaceaboutaquarterofadegreecolderforaslongasthedust

stayedintheair.

UnusualforGermany;commonplacefortheplanetasawhole.The

Saharaandotherbone-dryplacescontinuallysenddustupintothe

atmosphere,whereitmaytravelthousandsofkilometresandinfluence

regionalweather,theglobalclimateandeventhegrowthofforests

halfwayaroundtheplanet.

Earlierin2008,forinstance,HanKorenandhiscolleaguesatthe

WeizmannInstituteofScience,inIsrael,detectedaparticularly

voluminousburstofdustfromtheBodeleDepression.Thislow-lyingbed

ofsiltinChad,acrosswhichpowerfuljetsofwindarewonttoblow,

constituteslessthan1%oftheSahara'sareabutisreckonedtheworld's

dustiestplace.Itisthoughttoberesponsibleforaquarterormoreofthe

Sahara'soutputofairbornedust.

DrKorenobservedthedustrisewithacameraonasatellitecalledAqua;

watcheditobscurethesunusinganautomatedphotometerinIlorin,

Nigeria;followeditacrosstheAtlanticwithanothersatellite,CALIPSO;

andfinallysawaspikeinlevelsofsilicon,aluminiumandironasit

landedondetectorsinManaus,Brazil.Hisresults,presentedatameeting

oftheAmericanGeophysicalUnionheldinSanFranciscoinDecember,

providearemarkableaccountoftheintercontinentaltransferofdust.

Blowin*inthewind

Theimportanceofthislong-distancelogisticalchainhasbecome

apparentonlyinthepastfewyears,andresearchersarestillworkingout

itsmanyrepercussions-forthemoreyoulookatdust,themoreeffectsit

seemstohave.Africandustisthought,forexample,tostimulateplant

growthintheAmazonbybringinginphosphorus(whichisinshort

supplythere).Thismayputacheckonglobalwarmingbyremovingwhat

wouldotherwisebealong-termconstraintontheforest'sabilitytosuck

upcarbondioxideasitgrows.

Dustwhichdoesnotreachlandmaydosomethingsimilartothesea.

Somepartsoftheoceanareshortofiron,whichreddesertdusthasin

abundance.DustfromtheGobidesertseemstostimulateplankton

bloomsinthenutrient-poorwatersoftheNorthPacific,thoughitisnot

clearwhetherthisresultsinanetreductionofatmosphericcarbondioxide,

sincethatwouldrequiresomeoftheplanktontosinktotheseabed,never

toreturn.

Dustaloftcoolsthelandbelow,asEurope'smeteorologistsfoundoutin

May2008.Itdoesthisdirectly,byreflectingsunlightbackintospace,

andindirectly,byhelpingcloudstoform.Theeffectissignificant.The

carbondioxidewhichhasbeenaddedtotheatmospheresincethe

industrialrevolutionbeganhasagreenhouseeffectequivalenttothe

arrivalofabout1.6wattsofextrasolarpowerpersquaremetreofthe

Earth'ssurface.Thedirecteffectsofdustareestimatedtoprovidea

countervailingcoolingofabout0.14wattspersquaremetre.Addthe

indirecteffectoncloudsandthiscouldincreasemarkedly,thoughthere

aregreatuncertainties.

Thisdust-drivencooling,though,ispatchy-andinsomeplacesitmay

notevenbehelpful.Dustthatcoolsadesertcanchangelocalairflow

patternsandlessentheamountofrainthatfallsinsurroundingareas.This

causesplantstodie,andprovidesmoreopportunitiesforwildfires,

increasingtheatmosphericcarbon-dioxidelevel.

Togetabettersenseoftheneteffectsbroughtaboutbytheupsand

downsofdust,itwouldhelptohaveadetailedhistoricalrecordofthe

dustinessoftheplanet.AndthisiswhatNatalieMahowaldofCornell

Universityand19colleagueshaveachieved.Theyanalysedcoresfrom

glaciers,lakebottomsandcoralreefsandmeasuredhowthelevelsof

sometelltalechemicalschangedwithdepth,andthuswithtime.They

thenusedmodelsofglobalwindcirculationtodeducewhichdustsources

havebecomestrongerandwhichweaker.Theirconclusion,published

recentlyinAtmosphericChemistryandPhysics,isthatinfitsandstarts

overthepastcenturytheairbecametwiceasdusty.

Partoftheincreasestemsfromhumanactivities-directly,inthecaseof

construction,orindirectly,whenitresultsfromclearingvegetationfrom

marginallandinordertofarmit.Anotherpartoftheexplanationmaybe

globalwarmingitself,shiftingtheboundariesofdesertsandintensifying

dustproductioninsomeareas.

Howmanytimesmustamanlookup?

Theamountofdustactuallyinjectedintotheatmosphere,though,may

havebeensignificantlyunderestimated.Inarecentpaperinthe

ProceedingsoftheNationalAcademyofSciences,JasperKokofthe

NationalCentreforAtmosphericResearch,inBoulder,Colorado,writes

thattheamountofcoarsedustdrivenintotheatmospherebywindisat

leastdoubleandmaybeeighttimesasmuchaspreviouslythought.

Hearrivedatthisconclusionnotbymeasuringdustdirectlyfromplanes

orsatellites,whichseeonlyabitoftheatmosphereatatimeandarenot

necessarilygoodatpickingupallsignsofdust,butbyreasoninghisway

toamodelofhowloosesoil,somefineandsomecoarse,isaffectedby

thewindandliftedintotheair.

Fineparticlesofdustdonotsimplyliearounduntiltheyareblownaway

bythewind.Rather,theysticktogetherinclumps.Onlywhenthese

clumpsarebrokenupisthedustliberated.Thathappenswhenheavier

particlesareliftedbythewindandthenfallbacktotheground,

hammeringandshatteringthedust-clumpsastheydoso.DrKokshows

thatthisshattering,liketheshatteringofallsortsofotherthings,

producesadistinctivemixofparticlesizes.Thismixdoesnotmatch

thosecurrentlyusedinclimatemodels.Ithasmorebiggerparticlesand

fewersmallerones.Thediscrepancyseemsnottohavebeennoticed

beforebecauseexistingwaysofmeasuringdustarebiasedtowardsthe

finestmaterial—thatwhichmostinfluencesairtemperatureandcloud

formation.

Theconsequencesofthisreassessmentareunclear,sincetheeffectsof

coarsedustarenotwellunderstood.Also,thelargerparticlesfalloutof

theatmospheremorequickly.Whatisclearisthatitisyetanother

exampleofhowfiendishlycomplicatedtheatmosphereis,andwhata

broadsetofapproachesisrequiredtounderstandit.

Passage5:Makingcancerglowaway

Howtotrackdowntinytumours

ONEproblemwithcancersisdetectingthemwhentheyaresmalland

easytodealwith.Oncetheyhavegrownlargeenoughtobenoticed,they

haveoftenalsospreadtoothertissues,withlethalconsequences.

However,NormanMaitlandoftheYorkshireCancerResearch

Laboratory,inHarrogate,England,thinksthathemayhaveasolutionto

thisdifficulty.

DrMaitlandspeculatedthatifhecouldattachglowingproteinstoviruses

programmedtofindandinfectcancercells,hecouldmaketumourseasier

tosee.Theproteinsinquestioncomefromthecrystaljelly,amarine

organism.TheiroriginalextractionwasrewardedwiththeNobelprizefor

chemistryin2008.

Tousecrystal-jellyproteinstoilluminatetumours,DrMaitlandandhis

colleaguesdevelopedaseriesofviruses,rangingfromastripped-down

versionofHIVtoaninsectvirusreprogrammedtoinfecthumancells,

thathavebeenmodifiedtoattachspecificallytoproteinsonthesurfaceof

thecancercellsinquestion.Theyhavealsobeenprogrammedtocause

theproductionofcrystal-jellyprotein,bysplicingaprostate-specific

controlsequenceintotheirgeneticmaterial,nexttoaversionofthe

fluorescent-proteingene.

Onceexposedtotissuesamplescontainingprostate-cancercells,the

virusesinfectedthem.Theinfectiondidnotharmthecells,butasthe

virusreplicatedandinfectednewcancercells,theglowingprotein

multipliedtoo.Thiscausedthetumourstogrowbrighterandbrighter.

Unfortunately,theyglowedgreen,thecolourofthelightfromnatural

crystal-jellyprotein.Greenlight'sfrequencyistoohighforittobeable

totravelthroughhumantissues.Fortheglowingproteinstobeseenfrom

outsidethebody,theyneededtoproducelightthatcanpassthrough

readily.Redlookedtobetheperfectchoice.Fortunately,theteamthat

wontheNobelprizewasabletoprovideDrMaitlandwithaversionof

theproteinthatemitsredlight.

Evenwhentheyareinfectedwithvirusesthatmakethemglowred,

though,smalltumoursarehardtosee.Tobeabletodetectthem,Dr

Maitlandwillhavetouseaspeciallydevelopedcamerathatscansthe

bodyslicebyslice.Suchcamerasareexpensive,andthe£500,000

($750,000)theycostmaybethegreatesthurdletodeployingthe

technique.

Thattechniquewillnot,inanycase,bereadyforclinicaltrialsfor

anotherfiveyears,andthepriceofcamerasmayhavecomedownbythen.

Ifitallworks,pickingtumoursupatastagewhentheycanbedealtwith

shouldbecomealoteasier.

Passage6:Theoldmanofthemountainreturns

Moreevidenceforapreviouslyunknownspeciesofhuman

SVANTEPAABO,theDNApalaeontologistwhoseworkprovidedthe

inspirationfor44JurassicPark"，hasproducedaniceChristmaspresentfor

studentsofhumanevolution.Heandhiscolleagueshaveconfirmed,

usingthecreature5swholegenome,thatafossilfingerbonewhichisat

least30,000yearsold,andwhichwasfoundinacaveintheAltai

mountainsofSiberia,comesfromapreviouslyunknownhumanspecies.

Thatwasallbutcertainfromtheirpreviousstudyofthecreature's

mitochondrialDNA(anabundantformofthemoleculefoundincells5

powerpacks),releasedinMarch.Thelatestanalysis,publishedinNature

onDecember23rd,removesanydoubt—andaddsatoothtothemeagre

stockofevidencefromthenewspeciesthatmodernscienceisableto

examine.

Thisdiscoveryisextraordinaryonmanylevels.Perhapsthemost

importantisthatonesmallgroupofmodemhumanswholivefaraway

fromSiberia-theMelanesianislandersofthePacificOcean-have

pickedupablockofgenesfromthenewlydiscoveredspeciesontheir(or,

rather,theirancestors5)travels.GeneticevidenceoftheMelanesians5

journeyfromtheAfricancradleofHomosapiens,whichstarted(likethat

ofallnon-Africanpeople)about60,000yearsagowhenabandof

adventurerscrossedthestraitsofBabelMandeb,frommodemDjibouti

tomodernYemen,suggeststheythencontinuedalongthesouthcoastof

Asia,nevergoingfarinland.Forthenecessaryinterbreedingtohave

happened,DrPaabo'snewspecieswouldthushavetohavebeenspread

overavastareaofAsia.Yetithasleftnopreviouslyidentifiedtraces.

Tobefair,Asiahasnot,sofar,beenarichsourceofhuman

fossils—unlikeAfrica,wheremanysitesintheeastandthesouthhave

yieldedancestralhumans,andEurope,whereNeanderthalshavebeen

foundbythehundred.GoodAsianfossilscomeonlyfromChina(Peking

Man,atypeofHomoerectus)andIndonesia(JavaMan,anothererectus,

andHomofloresiensis,themuch-maligned“hobbit“oftheislandof

Flores).Stonetoolsabound,buthumanbonesfromotherAsiansitesare

almostasrareashens'teeth.Thefewthatdoexistarenow,ofcourse,the

subjectofintensescrutinyandmuchdebateaboutwhetherthey,too,

belongtothenewspecies.

Whatthisdiscoveryoughttoprovide,then,istheimpetustostartlooking

muchharderforhumanfossilsinAsia.Thenewspecies,whichhasyetto

benamed,clearlylivedallovertheplace.If,despitethat,itremained

hiddenuntilnow,whoknowswhatotherspeciesofhumanmightalsobe

outthere?

Passage7:Canadabeckons

THISmonthhasseenqualifiedgoodnewsforpolarbears.OnDecember

16thresearchersfromtheUnitedStatesandCanadapredictedthateven

thoughtheextentofthesummericeintheArcticOceanisexpectedto

declineprecipitouslyoverthenextfewdecades,arefugeofsortswill

remainforthem.Meanwhile,inapaperinNature,agroupAmerican

climatologistsarguedthatasuddenandirreversibledeclineoftheseaice

may,afterall,notbethemostlikelyoutcomeofglobalwarming.

TherefugewillbealongthenorthernshoresofCanadaandGreenland,

StephaniePfirman,ofBarnardCollegeinNewYork,andhercolleagues

toldtheautumnmeetingoftheAmericanGeophysicalUnioninSan

Francisco.Eveninsummer,icewillpersisttherebecauseincreased

meltingwillbecompensatedforbythearrivaloficefromthecentreof

theArcticOcean,andevenfromasfarawayasEuropeandAsia.Then,

asnow,prevailingwindsandresultantoceancurrentscarryicetoNorth

America.ThatiswhytheiceontheEurasiansideistypicallyyoungand

aboutonemetrethick,whereasthatnearCanadacanbeeightmetres

thickandasmanyyearsold.

DrPfirmanarrivedatthisconclusionafterrunningacomputermodel

calledtheCommunityClimateSystemModelversion3,orCCSM3,

whichwasdevelopedbytheUniversityCorporationforAtmospheric

ResearchinBoulder,Colorado.Accordingtothismodel,theArctic

Oceanwillbemoreorlessice-freeby2050ifnospecialeffortism