联合国粮农组织：国际茶叶市场报告2021（EN）

Internationalteamarket:

marketsituation,prospectsandemergingissues

Introduction

Inmanydevelopingcountries,theteasectorcontributessignificantlytoruraldevelopment,povertyreductionandfoodsecurity,representing,inseveralcases,amajorsourceofincomeandemploymentformillionsofpoorfamilies.TheglobalteaproductionamountsannuallytooverUSD17billion,whileworldteatradeisvaluedataboutUSD9.5billion,accountingforanimportantsourceofexportearnings.Onekeycharacteristicaboutteaisthatsmallholdersareresponsiblefor60percentofworldproduction.Importantly,teaprovidesproductivejobsinruralareas,whichempowershouseholdsandcommunitiestomeettheirfoodsecurityneedsandimprovetheirnutritionalstatus.

Worldteapercapitaconsumptionincreasedby2.5percentoverthelastdecade,withmarkedexpansionsinteaproducingcountries.Developingandemergingeconomieshavebeendrivingthegrowthindemand,withEastAsia,Africa,LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean,andtheNearEastleadingtheexpansion(figure1).However,inthemorematureEuropeanmarkets,aswellasotheradvancedcountries,teaintakeshavewitnesseddecliningvolumes.

2

GDPpercapitaPPP

Internationalteamarket:marketsituation,prospectsandemergingissues

Figure1.Teaislargelyproducedincountrieswithrelativelylowincome(2020)

80000

60000

40000

20000

0

0.91

HumanDevelopmentIndex(HDI)

TeaNon-ProducingCountriesTeaProducingCountries

Source:FAO/EST(2022).

Thedriveforinnovationisevident,asconsumersincreasinglydemandnaturalandorganicingredients,indiversifiedblends,flavoursandenvironments.Thereisalsoagrowinginterestinhigherqualityspecialityteaswithparticularflavours.Inparallel,greenteaaswellasherbalandfruitteasaregainingpopularityindifferentmarkets,especiallyinEurope,owingtorealorperceivedhealthbenefits.Atthesametime,publicinterestinorganic,locallysourced,specializedpremiumteashasalsointensified.Innovationand“premiumization”arecharacterisingthemarket,whichattractsagrowingnumberofyoungcustomersfromanemergingmiddleclass.Yet,teafacesanumberofchallenges.Itiscriticalthatthesectorsucceedsinbalancingtheneedforexpansionandtherequirementsofsustainabilityatallstagesofthevaluechain.

Severalfactorsinfluencedemandfortea,includingpricesandincomevariables,demographicssuchasage,education,occupation,andculturalbackground.Growingconsumptionofteainproducingcountries,drivenbypopulationandincomegrowth,hastranslatedinadecreaseofexportableproductionoverthepasttwodecades(figure2).Nevertheless,percapitaconsumptionremainslowinthesecountriescomparedtoimportingmarkets,andgreatereffortsshouldbedirectedatexpandingdemandtoexploreprevailingmarketopportunities.

3

Thousandtonnes

Percentage

50

40

30

20

10

0

Internationalteamarket:marketsituation,prospectsandemergingissues

Figure2.Shareofexportableproductiondecliningsincetheearly2000s

8000

6000

4000

2000

0

1990199520002005201020152020

HumanDevelopmentIndex(HDI)

ProductionExportsShareofexportableproduction

Source:FAO/EST(2022).

Marketsituation

TheFAOTeaCompositePrice,aweightedaveragepriceforblacktea,whichincludescrush,tear,curl(CTC)andOrthodoxteasinthefourmajorauctions(Mombasa,Colombo,CalcuttaandCochin),fellby12percentin2019toanaverageofUSD2.42perkg.Thecompositepricedeclinedfurtherinthefirstquarterof2020toUSD2.28perkg,onthebackoflargeavailabilitiesandthemeasuresimposedbymanycountriestocontainthespreadofCOVID-19.ThesharpretreatinpriceswasmainlyonaccountoflowerCTCteaquotations.SinceApril2020,however,pricesrecoveredtoanaverageofUSD2.60perkg,asincreasing“in-home”consumptionofteamorethanoffsetdeclining“out-of-home”consumption.Despitethedeclineinthefirstquarterof2020,pricesoverthewholeof2020averagedhigherthanin2019,atUSD2.52perkg,registeringanincreaseof4.2percent.

In2021,internationalteapricesdeclinedtoUSD2.44perkg,aspandemic-relateddisruptionstologisticsaffectedtrade,andKenya,givenitsproductionsurplus,wassellingitsteaatverycompetitiveprices.In

4

Internationalteamarket:marketsituation,prospectsandemergingissues

thelastquarterof2021,pricespromptedarecovery,averagingUSD2.62perkg.Theyincreasedfurtherinthefirsttrimesterof2022,averagingUSD2.72perkg,andreachingahighofUSD2.85perkginApril-thehighestlevelsinceMay2018.ThegrowthwasduetomajorspikesintheColomboauctionmarket,onthebackoftightersuppliesfromSriLanka,followingtheeconomiccrisisfacedbythecountry,andstrongworlddemand.PricesalsoincreasedintheCalcuttaauctioninIndia,underpinnedbyaboostin

demand,followingsupplycutbacksinSriLankaandtheeasingofthetraderestrictionsimposedduringCOVID-19.

TeapricesandtradearealsoexpectedtobeadverselyimpactedbytheRussia-Ukraineconflict,astheRussianFederationisthelargestimporterofIndiantea,thethirdlargestimporterofSriLankanteaandthefifthlargestimporterofKenyantea.TheRussianFederationisamajorsupplieroffertilizers,andalimitedavailabilityand/orhigherpricesoffertiliserscouldtranslateintoloweryieldsandimpactteaquality.

Worldteaproductionin2021increasedtoanestimated6.5milliontonnes,from6.3milliontonnesin2020,asproductionofblacktearecoveredfromthe2020shortfallsinsomeofthemajorproducingcountries,suchasIndiaandSriLanka.Chinaremainsbyfarthelargestteaproducer,accountingfor47percentofglobaloutput,reaching3.1milliontonnesin2021,comparedto2.9milliontonnesin2020.Outputinthesecondlargestproducer,India,recoveredin2021to1.33milliontonnescomparedto1.26milliontonnesin2020.

ExportsrecoveredslightlyfromtheCOVID-19-relateddownturnin2020toanestimated1.8milliontonnesin2021,owingtohigherexportsbyKenyaandChinaandresumedshipmentsfromSriLanka,thesecondlargestblackteaexporter.Globalconsumptionofteaincreasedannuallyby3.5percentoverthelastdecade,andisestimatedtohaveamountedataround6.4milliontonnesin2021,underpinnedbyrobustdemandinmajorproducingcountries(ChinaandIndia),aswellasotherAsianandemergingeconomies(figure3).

5

Thousandtonnes

USD/kg

Internationalteamarket:marketsituation,prospectsandemergingissues

Figure3.从o写IgrG3m3写FGrP3I3对cG(ror3IrG3)

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

2005

2010

2015

2020

3.5

3

2.5

2

1.5

1

0.5

0

ProductionConsumptionExportImportsFAOteacompositeprice

Source:FAO/EST(2022).

Percapitateaconsumptionexpandedby2.5percentannuallyoverthelastdecade.WhiledeclineswereregisteredintraditionalimportingmarketsofEurope,NorthernAmericaandtheRussianFederation,percapitateaconsumptionincreasedinproducingcountries,althoughmarginallyinmostcases(figure4).

6

GDPpercapitaPPP

Qatar

RussianFederation

Kazakhstan

Mauritius

AzerbaijanSriLanka

Turkey

Internationalteamarket:marketsituation,prospectsandemergingissues

Figure4.Percapitateaconsumption(2020)

100000

80000

60000

40000

20000

0

Ireland

UnitedStatesof

AmericaNetherlands

China,HongKongSAR

TaiwanProvinceofChina

Germany

France

SaudiArabiaU.KandNorthern

NewZelandJapan

Ireland

China(Mainland)

Libya

Morocco

01234

Percapitaconsumption

Source:FAO/EST(2022).

Note:sizeofbubblesreflectspercapitateaconsumption.

Medium-termoutlook

a.Production

Themedium-termoutlookprojectionsarebasedontheresultsoftheFAOteamodel,whichisapartialequilibriumtrademodelcoveringthemajoringimportingandexportingteacountries.Pricedeterminationisbasedontheglobalmarketclearingframework,wheretheequilibriumpriceensurestotalimportdemandismatchedtototalteaexportsupplies.

By2030,worldblackteaproductionisprojectedtoincreaseannuallyby2.1percent,ataslightlyslowerpacethanthepreviousdecadewhengrowthstoodat2.4percent,reflectingmajorincreasesinChina,Kenya,IndiaandSriLanka.TheexpansioninChinaisexpectedtobesignificant(4.1percent),underpinnedbystronggrowthindomesticdemandforblackteassuchaspu’er,cultivatedintheYunnanProvinceinChina.Thisvarietyofteaisagedandnaturallyfermented,anditiswellknownforitshealth

7

Thousandtonnes

China

India

Kenya

Turkey

SriLanka

VietNam

Indonesia

Bangladesh

Argentina

Uganda

RestofWorld

China*

VietNam*

Japan*

RestofWorld*

Internationalteamarket:marketsituation,prospectsandemergingissues

benefitsandhealingproperties.Outputinthetoptwoexportersofblacktea,KenyaandSriLanka,isexpectedtogrow,respectively,by2.1percentand0.6percentannually,whileoutputinIndiaisprojectedtoincreaseby2.3percentperyear.

Worldgreenteaproductionisprojectedtoincreaseatafasterrateof6.3percentannually,reflectinganexpansioninChina,whereoutputisanticipatedtonearlydoubleby2030.Theexpansionisexpectedtoresultfromincreasedproductivityratherthananexpansioninarea,throughreplantingofhigheryieldingvarietiesandbetteragriculturalpractices.VietNamisalsoexpectedtosubstantiallyincreaseitsproductionofgreenteawithanaverageannualgrowthrateof4.0percent(figure5).

Figure5.Teaproductionbymajorproducingcountries

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

Blacktea

Greentea

20202030

Source:FAO/EST(2022).

b.Consumption

Worldteaconsumptionincreasedby3.5percentoverthelastdecade,reflectingstronggrowthinproducingcountriesthathasmorethanoffsetasubduedimportdemandintraditionalteaimportingmarkets,namelytheRussianFederation,theEuropeanUnion,theUnitedStatesofAmericaandCanada.Blackteaconsumptionisprojectedtogrowby2.0percentoverthenextdecade.Thelargestexpansion

8

Thousandtonnes

India

Turkey

China

Pakistan

RussianFederation

Iran(IslamicRep.of)

EU27

Egypt

Bangladesh

U.KandNorthernIreland

UnitedStatesofAmerica

Internationalteamarket:marketsituation,prospectsandemergingissues

withinthetopfiveproducingcountriesisforecastinChina,whereconsumptionisexpectedtoincreasebyanannualgrowthrateof4.9percent,asblacktea,pu’erteaanddarkteaareenjoyinggreatpopularityduetotheincreasingawarenessofthehealthbenefitslinkedtodrinkingtea.StronggrowthisalsoexpectedinmanyproducingcountriesinAfricaandAsia,suchasUganda(8.1percent),Rwanda(5.1percent),Kenya(4.3percent),Malawi(4.0percent),Zimbabwe(3.8percent),Bangladesh(2.8percent),Nepal(2.4),India(2.1percent),Indonesia(1.5percent)andSriLanka(1.4percent)(figure6).

Intheshortrun,theimpactofCOVID-19ontheteamarketisestimatedtobemoderate.Themarketwillcontinuetobeunderpinnedbyrobustdemandindevelopingandemergingcountries,creatingnewruralincomeopportunitiesandcontributingtofoodsecurityintea-producingcountries.TeaconsumptionhasgrownparticularlyrapidlyinChina,Indiaandotheremergingeconomies,drivenbyacombinationofhigherincomesanddiversificationintoothermarketsegments,suchasorganicandspecialtyteas.

Figure6.Blackteaconsumptionbymajorconsumingcountries/markets

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

20202030

Source:FAO/EST(2022).

9

Thousandtonnes

Kenya

India

SriLanka

VietNam

Argentina

UnitedRepublicofTanzania

Uganda

RestofWorld

China*

Indonesia*

Japan*

VietNam*

RestofWorld*

Internationalteamarket:marketsituation,prospectsandemergingissues

c.Trade

Worldteaexportsincreasedannuallyby0.5percentoverthelastdecade.Blackteaexportsregisteredaminorincreaseof0.1percent,owingtoincreasingshipmentsfromKenyaandIndia,whichmorethanoffsetreducedshipmentsbySriLanka,thesecondlargestexporterofblacktea.Greenteaexportsincreasedby2.3percent,mainlydrivenbyincreasedsalesbyChinaandVietNam.

Inthemediumterm,exportsofblackteaareprojectedtoincreaseby1.4percent,onthebackofexpectedlargershipmentsbyKenya,confirmingthecountry’srankasthelargestexporter,followedbyIndia,SriLanka,Argentina,VietNam,UgandaandtheUnitedRepublicofTanzania(figure7).Worldgreenteaexportsareexpectedtogrowatafasterrateoverthemediumterm,byabout4.0percentperyear,drivenbyforeseensharpincreasesinsalesbythetopthreeexporters.Chinaisexpectedtocontinuetodominatethegreenteaexportmarket,accountingforover70percentofglobalgreenteaexportsandregisteringanannualincreaseof3.6percentupto2030,followedbyVietNam,withashareofover20percent.Intermsofgrowthrates,VietNamandJapanareprojectedtolead,respectively,at7.0percentand6.5percent.

Figure7.Teaexportsbymajorexportingcountries

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

Blacktea

Greentea

20202030

Source:FAO/EST(2022).

Internationalteamarket:marketsituation,prospectsandemergingissues

10

Mainissuesanduncertainties

Theteasectorfacesanumberofchallengesthatmustbeaddressedtoensureitslong-termsustainability.Climatechangeisthreateningthelivelihoodofmillionsofteafarmers.Teaproductionisextremelyvulnerabletoclimate-relatedevents,andglobalwarmingisseverelyaffectingyieldsandteaquality.Teaismainlygrownunderrain-fedmono-croppingsystemsandweatherconditionsdetermineoptimalgrowth.Changesintemperaturesandrainfallaffectnotonlythequality,butalsothepropertiesoftealeaves.AdaptationmeasuresrecommendedbytheFAOIntergovernmentalGroup(IGG)onTea,includeplantingdroughtandstresstolerantteacultivars,diversifyingproduction,intercroppingteawithothertreecrops,organiccultivationandinvestinginwaterconservationtechnologies.

Thesectormustbesustainableenvironmentally,sociallyandeconomically.Carbonemissionsandenergyusearekeyvariables.Environmentalsustainabilityschemesthatdealwithrelevantaspects,suchassoilqualityandbiodiversityconservation,shouldbegivenpriority.Inaddition,socialstandardsthatrelatetolabour,genderandequalityhavebecomeincreasinglyimportant,anddeterminethecompetitivenessofthesector.Economicsustainabilityfor