BCG+数字健康的未来-The Future of Digital Health

TheFutureofDigitalHealthJanuary2023BCGIBCGXJanuary2023BCGIBCGXBCGBCGXBostonConsultingGrouppartnerswithleadersinbusinessandsocietytotackletheirmostimportantchallengesandcapturetheirgreatestopportunities.BCGwasthepioneerinbusinessstrategywhenitwasfoundedin1963.Today,weworkcloselywithclientstoembraceatransformationalapproachaimedatbenefitingallstakeholders—empoweringorganizationstogrow,buildsustainablecompetitiveadvantage,anddrivepositivesocietalimpact.Ourdiverse,globalteamsbringdeepindustryandfunctionalexpertiseandarangeofperspectivesthatquestionthestatusquoandsparkchange.BCGdeliverssolutionsthroughleading-edgemanagementconsulting,technologyanddesign,andcorporateanddigitalventures.Weworkinauniquelycollaborativemodelacrossthefirmandthroughoutalllevelsoftheclientorganization,fueledbythegoalofhelpingourclientsthriveandenablingthemtomaketheworldabetterplace.BCGXisthetechbuild&designunitofBCG.TurbochargingBCG'sdeepindustryandfunctionalexpertise,BCGXbringstogetheradvancedtechknowledgeandambitiousentrepreneurshiptohelporganizationsenableinnovationatscale.Withnearly3,000technologists,scientists,programmers,engineers,andhuman-centereddesignerslocatedacross80+cities,BCGXbuildsanddesignsplatformsandsoftwaretoaddresstheworld'smostimportantchallengesandopportunities.Teamingacrossourpractices,andinclosecollaborationwithourclients,ourend-to-endglobalteamunlocksnewpossibilities.Togetherwe'recreatingtheboldanddisruptiveproducts,services,andbusinessesoftomorrow.BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUP 3BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUP 3TheFutureofDigitalHealthThehealthcaremarkethasfocusedinrecentmonthsonhowtonavigateapost-COVID-19world.Duringthepandemic,digitalhealthoptionsledtogreatopportunitiesforphysicianstoreachpatientsthroughtelemedicineandremotemonitoring,andpavedthewayfornewapproachestoprovidingbettercare.Unsurprisingly,investmentsflowedintodigitalhealthcareasthepandemicspread.Theybegantoslowinthesecondhalfof2022,however,asinvestors'focusgraduallyshiftedfromexcitingnewideastodemonstratedoutcomesandevidence,withstartupsbeingaskedtoshowvalueandabusinessmodeloutofthegate.Evenastheflowofinvestmentintostartupsdecelerated,severalnontraditionalplayersmadesignificantmovesintothehealthcaremarketin2022(asweanticipated),partneringwithtraditionalplayersinanefforttocreatenewchannelsandmarketsandtoadvancethenewhybridhealthcareenvironment.Asweenter2023,manytrendsindigitalhealththatthepandemicinspiredandspurredoncontinuetogaintraction,butotherdevelopmentsarebeginningtoplayaroleaswell.Inthislatesteditionof“TheFutureofDigitalHealth,"expertsacrossBCGandBCGX—BCG'snewtechbuildanddesignunit—delveintowhatwilldefinethespaceintheyearahead.Home-basedhealthcarewillkeepgainingmomentumafterstronggrowthin2022,dueinparttotheagingbabyboomerpopulationandtopowerfultechnologicaladvances—especiallyastheindustrymovestowardmore“patient-led"delivery.Wealsoexpectalternativecaremodelsandnewentrantsinthehealthcarespacetoemerge(watchforMicrosoftandApple),whileretailerssuchasCVS,Walgreens,andWalmartfurtherdeveloptheirhealthcarestrategies.Thewomen'shealtharenawillcontinuetoattractattention,investment,andinnovationin2023.Weseeexcitingtrendsinfertilityoptions,community-basedcare,andsupportfortheunderserved,amongothers.Femtechproductsandsolutions(technologythatspecificallyaddresseswomen'shealthneeds)willgrowatarapidpace,andfemtechbusinesseswillcompetetodevelophybrid,one-stopshops.Techadvancesingeneralwillunlockmanynewopportunitiesindigitalhealth.Virtualrealitywilloffernewapproachesfortreatingmentalhealthconditions,andthehealthcareindustrywillembracemoreusecasesfordigitaltwinsinclinicaltrials,hospitaloperations,anddiseasemodeling.Weseeapushforsmarterclinicaldevelopment,andorganizationsarealreadytestingChatGPT,thegenerativeAItechnology,indevelopingtherapeuticideas,analyzingmedicaldata,andidentifyingpatterns.Wealsoexpectmoretech-relatedadvancestofocusonreducingconsumers'requiredout-of-pocketspendingforhealthcare.Meanwhile,digitaltoolswillimprovehealthequityoverthecomingyearbyhelpingtobridgecaregaps,expandaccess,enablemorepersonalizedtreatment,andeliminategeographicbarriers.Mentalhealthservices,inparticular,willbenefit,withmoreoptionsbecomingavailabletothoseseekingcare.Still,theindustrymustcontendwithacloudofeconomicuncertainty—andeventhoughhealthcareistypicallyresilientinthistypeofclimate,wecanexpectsomeimportantshifts,includingthefollowing.Thefocusofdigital-healthinvestmentswillmovefromtop-linegrowthtoprofitability,followingthenumberofbigbetsmadeinrecentyears.PharmaITwillbecomemoreattractivetohealthtechcompanies,giventhecurrentneedformorecomprehensiveandindustry-specificdigitalsolutions.StrategicinvestmentsandM&Ainthehealthtecharenawillincreaseevenasfinancialinvestorspullbacksomewhat.Weareextremelyexcitedabouttheongoingevolutionofdigitalhealthand—giventhefollowingdevelopmentsandtrendshighlightedbyourglobalteamofexperts—expect2023tobeatransformativeyear.OrganizationsarealreadytestingChatGPTindevelopingtherapeuticideas,analyzingmedicaldata,andidentifyingpatterns.

Aplethoraofcompaniesaretryingtochangethewaywomenaresupported,aretreated,andtakecareofthemselves.AshkanAfkhami•Progressandmomentuminthewomen'shealthspacewillcontinueastheyhaveinrecentyears.Aplethoraofcompaniesaretryingtochangethewaywomenaresupported,aretreated,andtakecareofthemselves.Weareespeciallyexcitedtoseepositivetrendsinfertilityoptions(suchasthoseofferedbyOviaHealthandProgyny),community-basedcare(Cayabacre),supportforunderservedpopulations(SeshGroups),careadvocacy(Maven),alternativebirthoptions(OulaHealth),andmentalhealthservicesthatareuniquelydesignedforwomen(CarawayHealth).Inaddition,bothlargecompaniesandstartupswillmakestrongpushesforwomen'shealthequityindifferentcountriesaroundtheworldinordertoprovidebetterexperiencesandoptions.Welookforwardtoadditionalattention,investment,andinnovationinthewomen'shealthspacein2023.Alternativecaremodelsandnewentrantswillappear.CompaniessuchasCVS,Walgreens,andWalmartwillbuildontheirexistinginfrastructuretoprovidecommunity-basedhealthservicesandexplorechannelsforprovidingnear-real-timecarethroughinnovativenewtechnologiesandservices.Othercompanies,suchasAmazon(followingitsrecentacquisitionofOneMedical),willleveragetheirstrategicassetstomoveintoholistichealthcare,includingworkthatfocusesonsleep,activity,andnutrition.Theneedforoutcome-basedsolutionsbackedbyreal-worldevidenceandstudieswillposeastrongerbarriertoentryintodigitalhealth.Overthepastdecade,wehaveseenvariousorganizations—suchasOmada,ProteusDigitalHealth,WellDoc,AkiliInteractive,andPearTherapeutics—•Progressandmomentuminthewomen'shealthspacewillcontinueastheyhaveinrecentyears.Aplethoraofcompaniesaretryingtochangethewaywomenaresupported,aretreated,andtakecareofthemselves.Weareespeciallyexcitedtoseepositivetrendsinfertilityoptions(suchasthoseofferedbyOviaHealthandProgyny),community-basedcare(Cayabacre),supportforunderservedpopulations(SeshGroups),careadvocacy(Maven),alternativebirthoptions(OulaHealth),andmentalhealthservicesthatareuniquelydesignedforwomen(CarawayHealth).Inaddition,bothlargecompaniesandstartupswillmakestrongpushesforwomen'shealthequityindifferentcountriesaroundtheworldinordertoprovidebetterexperiencesandoptions.Welookforwardtoadditionalattention,investment,andinnovationinthewomen'shealthspacein2023.Alternativecaremodelsandnewentrantswillappear.CompaniessuchasCVS,Walgreens,andWalmartwillbuildontheirexistinginfrastructuretoprovidecommunity-basedhealthservicesandexplorechannelsforprovidingnear-real-timecarethroughinnovativenewtechnologiesandservices.Othercompanies,suchasAmazon(followingitsrecentacquisitionofOneMedical),willleveragetheirstrategicassetstomoveintoholistichealthcare,includingworkthatfocusesonsleep,activity,andnutrition.Theneedforoutcome-basedsolutionsbackedbyreal-worldevidenceandstudieswillposeastrongerbarriertoentryintodigitalhealth.Overthepastdecade,wehaveseenvariousorganizations—suchasOmada,ProteusDigitalHealth,WellDoc,AkiliInteractive,andPearTherapeutics—takedigitalsolutionstomarket,withmixedoutcomes.Asaresult,althoughCPT/ICD(proceduralanddiagnostic)codesareavailableforremotepatientmonitoringandotherclinicalservices,manufacturerswithinthepharmaceuticalandmedical-devicesectors,alongwithpayersandproviders,willrequiremoreevidencebeforetheyadoptorreimbursesuchdigitalhealthsolutions.BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUP 3BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUP 3 THEFUTUREOFDIGITALHEALTHThecomingyearislikelytoseeanincreaseinfemtechsstrivingtobeone-stopshopsforwomen'shealth.AliceWilsonLeadStrategicDesigner•Virtualrealitywillcontinuetoshowcasenewapproachestotreatingmentalhealthconditions.Althoughthemetaversehypehasbeguntodecrease,VR-basedexposuretherapyisstillexhibitingpositiveresultsinimprovingpatientoutcomes一andnowthatBehaVRandOxfordVR,theLeadersinthisfield,havejoinedforces,thistrendiswellpositionedtocontinue.Themoreimmersiveinteractionswithinthemetaversecouldsupportbetteraccesstocarethroughvirtualclinics,asMind-EasyhasdoneinDecentraland;offerwaystomanagebroaderpsychologicaldisorders,suchasbodydysmorphism,autism,anddepression;andprovidespacesformentalwell-beingpractices,suchasthoseprovidedbyTripp,adigitalwellnesscompany.•Femtechswillracetooffercomprehensive—andhybrid—caremodels.Thefemtechmarketispredictedtogrowto$103billionby2030,accordingtoPrecedenceResearch,meaningthatasignificantamountofwhitespaceremains.Asaresult,thecomingyearislikelytoseeanincreaseinfemtechsstrivingtobeone-stopshopsforwomen'shealth,offeringbothvirtualandin-personservices.NewYork-basedMavenClinic,nowvaluedatanestimated$1.35billion,hasshownthatsucheffortscansucceed.Andaroundtheglobe,numerouscomprehensivehybridcareprovidersarewaitinginthewings,includingPlennainMexico,KindredinthePhilippines,andAlmondintheUS.PlayersmustrelentlesslyfocusonthetrueproblemtheyaresolvingfOrpatients,consumers,careteams,orhealthcareprofessionals.Ourexpertsclearlyseeanumberofmajorthemesonthehealthcarehorizonin2023,includinganongoingshifttoin-homediagnostics,morealternative-caremodelsandnewentrants,technologyadvancesthatimprovetreatmentorreducetheshareofpatients'walletexpendedonhealthcare,andagreateremphasisonspecifictherapeuticareassuchaswomen'shealth.Weareexcitedtowatchthesethemesastheyemerge,evolve,and,insomecases,consolidatetocreatemeaningfulimpactforpatients,caregivers,andphysicians.Forquiteawhile,playersinthedigitalhealthspacehavebeenattemptingtobridgethechasmbetweendigitalandin-personhealthcare,mostoftenbygeneratingadoption,engagementthroughreal-worldevidence,andcompellingbusinessmodels.Althoughthechasmremains,itisnarrowingsteadily.Herearesomewaysforthedigitalhealthcommunitytoadvancetheircollectivejourney:•Seizepartnershipopportunities.Continuetoobservelargershiftsinthemarketwithaneyetowardhowincumbentsspendtheirtime,money,andenergy,whilealsolookingforopportunitiestopartnerortocreateorjointherespectiveecosystems.•Demonstratevalue.Bemorejudiciousthaninthepastaboutdemonstratingvalue,showcasingclinicallyvalidatedoutcomes,and