Howtowritebusinessreport-以高盛2016年VR报告为例

第十课Howtowriteabusinessreport?Planningyourbusinessreport:1.Whatisthepurposeofthereport?Thepurposeofabusinessreportisgenerallytoassistindecisionmaking.Besureyouareclearonwhatdecisionistobemadeandtherolethereportplaysinthisdecision.2.Whoarethereadersofthereport?Trytounderstandwhatthereadersalreadyknow,whattheyneedtoknow,andhowtheywillusethisreport.Youwillneedtogiveenoughinformationtosatisfyallthesepotentialreaders.3.Whatarethereport'smainmessages?Thinkcarefullyaboutthemainmessage/syouneedtoconvey,andthereforewhatinformationisrequired.Askyourself:a.WhataretherequiredpiecesofinformationIneedtoinclude?b.WhataretheadditionalpiecesofinformationIneedtoinclude?4.Howwillthemessagebestructured？a.Usedirectapproach.Thisapproachpresentstheconclusionsorrecommendationsnearthebeginningofthereport,andthereportprovidesjustification理由fortheserecommendations.b.Thenconstructanoutline,orstructure,foryourreport.c.Followthelogicflow.StructuringyourbusinessreportAbusinessreportmaycontain:•acoveringletter•atitlepage•anexecutivesummary摘要、概要•atableofcontents•anintroduction•conclusions•recommendations•findingsanddiscussion•alistofreferences•appendices附件Writingyourbusinessreport•useeffectiveheadingsandsubheadings•structureyourparagraphswell•writeclearsentenceswithplainlanguage•keepyourwritingprofessional•usewhitespaceandwell-chosenfonts•numberyourpages•usefootnotes脚注,tables,figures,andappendicesappropriately.PortfolioManager'sSummary1.Virtualreality(VR)andaugmentedreality(AR)havethepotentialtobecomethenextbigcomputingplatform,andaswesawwiththePCandsmartphone,weexpectnewmarketstobecreatedandexistingmarketstobedisrupted.VR和AR有潜力成为下一个重要计算平台，如同PC和智能手机，我们预计，新的市场终将形成，而当前的许多市场将被颠覆。2.GiventhatVR/ARtechnologyisstillintheearlystagesofdevelopment,we'veoutlinedthreescenariosforhardwareandsoftwareuptakeoverthenextdecade.Inourbasecase,weestimate$80bninrevenueby2025($45bninhardware,$35bninsoftware)andassumethatHMDs(head-mounteddevices头戴设备)gainpopularityastechnologyimproves,butadoptionislimitedbymobilityandbatterylife.Our“accelerateduptake”scenariopredictsa$182bnmarket($110bninhardware,$72bninsoftware),whereVR/ARtechnologyevolvesfromaniche[nɪtʃ]神龛devicetoabroadercomputingplatform.Inour$23bn“delayeduptake”scenario($15bninhardware,$8bninsoftware),weassumeVR/ARseeschallengesinlatency,display,safetyandprivacy,andthetechnologyisusedprimarilyforvideogames.由于VR/AR尚处于发展的初期阶段，我们在这里列出了VR/AR硬件和软件在未来10年的三种发展可能：基于标准预期，到2025年该市场营收将达到800亿美元(其中450亿美元为硬件营收，350亿美元为软件营收)，同时，随着技术提升，头戴设备将越来越普及，但其应用性会受到设备的移动性和电池寿命的限制。基于乐观预期，该市场规模将达到1820亿美元，(其中1100亿美元为硬件营收，720亿美元为软件营收)，VR/AR设备将由神龛发展为广阔的计算平台。而基于悲观预期，该市场规模将达到230亿美元，(其中150亿美元为硬件营收，80亿美元为软件营收)。VR/AR的发展可能会受到延迟，显示，安全和隐私等方面的挑战，而将主要应用于视频游戏。3.We'veoutlined9usecasesforVR/ARwhichweseeasthemostmeaningfuldriversofthemarketinthenear-term:videogames,liveevents,videoentertainment,healthcare,realestate,retail,education,engineering,andmilitary.我们列出了VR/AR的9大应用领域，我们认为这是短期内该市场最有意义的应用案例：视频游戏、事件直播、视频娱乐、医疗保健、房地产、零售、教育、工程和军事。4.Lookingbeyondvideogames,weseerealestate,retail,andhealthcareamongthefirstmarketsthatVR/ARdisrupts.除了视频游戏，我们认为VR/AR还将率先颠覆房地产、零售和医疗保健行业。5.Weviewtheuserexperience,technologyconstraints约束,thedevelopmentofcontentandapplications,andpriceaskeyhurdles障碍toadoption.我们认为，用户体验、技术局限、内容和应用的开发，以及价格是VR/AR普及的主要障碍。6.WebelieveVR/ARHMDscouldexperiencesimilarcostreductioncurvesaswehaveseenonPCsandsmartphones,withpricesfalling5-10%annually.我们认为，用户体验、技术局限、内容和应用的开发，以及价格是VR/AR普及的主要障碍。7.Atthisstage,wehavegreaterconvictionintherelativesuccessofVRversusARgivenVR'stechnologicalprogressandmomentum势头,andtheearlyformationofanecosystemofvendors供应商andpartners.目前，我们认为VR成功的可能性要高于AR，这主要得益于VR技术的进步，已经厂商和合作伙伴生态系统的初步形成。LineChart/LineGraph折线图BarChart柱状图PieChart饼状图CurrentStateoftheMarketVRvsARVirtualrealityimmerses沉浸auserinanimaginedorreplicatedworld(likevideogames,movies,orflightsimulation)orsimulatespresenceintherealworld(likewatchingasportingeventlive).ThemajorhardwareplayersinVRareOculus,SonyPlayStationVR,HTCVive,andSamsungGearVR.VR让用户置身于一个想象出来或者重新复制的世界(如游戏、电影或航班模拟)，抑或是模拟真实的世界(如观看体育直播)。VR领域主要的硬件厂商有Oculus、索尼(PlayStationVR)、HTC(Vive)和三星(GearVR)。Augmentedrealityoverlaysdigitalimagery影像ontotherealworld.ThemajorhardwareplayersincludeMicrosoftHoloLens,GoogleGlass,andMagicLeap.AR是把数字想象世界加在真实世界之上，主要硬件包括微软HoloLens、谷歌GoogleGlass和MagicLeap。AneasywaytodifferentiatebetweenthetwoisthatVRusesanopaque[ə(ʊ)'peɪk]不透明的headset(whichyoucannotseethrough)tocompletelyimmersetheuserinavirtualworldwhereasARusesaclearheadsetsotheuserscanseetherealworldandoverlayinformationandimageryontoit.区分VR和AR的一个简单的方法是：VR需要用一个不透明的头戴设备完成虚拟世界里的沉浸体验，而AR需要清晰的头戴设备看清真实世界和重叠在上面的信息和图像。Aswediscussinmoredetailintheusecasessectionofthisreport,wecurrentlyseeARgearedtowardsservingbusinessusecases,VRhavingbothconsumerandbusinessapplications,andsomeareaswherethetwooverlap.Forinstance,mostvideogamedevelopmentisinVRrightnow,butMicrosoftHoloLensisalsocreatingARgamessuchasMinecraft.从目前的观察来看，AR比较适合服务企业级用户，而VR同时适用于消费者和企业用户。有些情况下，两者还会出现重叠市场。例如，目前大多数游戏基于VR研发，但微软也用HoloLens重新创作了《我的世界》这样的游戏。

Inthe1990s,when3Dgamingwasintroduced,virtualrealitysawasimilarboom.

Asimilarhype大肆宣传beganwhenFacebookacquiredOculusfor$2bnin2014andwenotethatoverthelast2yearstherehavebeenover225VCinvestmentsinVR/AR,raising$3.5bnincapital.UsingthepasttopredictthefutureToascertaintherampofVR/AR,weanalyzedtheadoptioncurvesandtrendswesawinPCs,smartphones,andtabletstotrytodrawfromthesimilaritiesanddifferences.WeseeVR/ARhavingaquickrampamongearlyadoptersliketabletsdid,andseeadoptionbeingdrivenbyamixofconsumerandenterpriseusecases(whilethePCwasdrivenbyenterpriseandsmartphone/tabletsweredrivenbyconsumer).为进一步了解VR/AR的发展，我们分析了PC、智能手机和平板电脑的普及曲线与趋势。我们发现，VR/AR与平板电脑的发展曲线较为相近，最初都是由消费者和企业级用户推动发展(PC最初由企业级用户推动，智能手机由消费者推动)。SummaryofourhardwareandsoftwareforecastsToarriveattheVR/ARestimates,weconsideredthefollowing:1.TheusecasesforVR/ARandpotentialaddressablemarketintermsofusers2.Avolumeadoptionframeworkwhichconsiderstechnologyenablerstoreachmassadoption.3.Apricingframeworkwhichprojectshowcostscoulddeclineovertimeaspriceelasticityshouldhaveanimpactonenddemand.Inconsideringtheusecasesandaddressablemarkets,andmarryingthevolumeadoptionandpricingframeworks,wearriveatthreeoutcomesin2025forourVR/ARhardwareandsoftwarerevenue收益at$182bn,$80bnand$23bn.为预测VR/AR市场，我们考虑了以下三个因素：1.VR/AR的应用和潜在用户市场2.大规模普及的时间框架(让该技术变成大众产品)3.价格区间。随着时间的推移，VR/AR产品的成本将下滑。价格的波动会影响市场需求。考虑到应用空间和市场，结合大规模普及时间框架和价格框架，我们对2025年的VR/AR市场规模做出了三个级别的预测：分别是1820亿美元、800亿美元和230亿美元。UsecasesandsoftwaremarketdetailWe'veidentified9usecasesforVR/ARtechnologywhichweseecurrentlyemerging:videogames,liveevents,videoentertainment,retail,realestate,education,healthcare,engineering,andmilitary.Foreachoftheseusecases,weassessthefollowing:1)Thepotentialmarketreachintermsofusers2)Thecurrentchallengestoexecuteonthisusecase3)TheexistingrevenuepoolthatVR/ARadoptioncoulddisrupt4)Revenuedriversandestimatethesoftware/subscriptionrevenuepotentialthrough2025我们认为，VR/AR技术可以应用到9大领域：视频游戏、事件直播、视频娱乐、医疗保健、房地产、零售、教育、工程和军事。对于每个领域，我们都评估了：1)潜在市场的用户量2)当前的挑战3)当前的营收规模(VR/AR普及后可能颠覆的)4)营收推动力和2025年软件营收潜力图表词汇

表上升趋势toincrease/anincrease上升toleap/aleap跳跃式增长torocket/toboom/tosoar/asoar[sɔː]飞涨toupsurge/anupsurge猛增togoup上升tojump/shoot(up)暴涨toboomtoreachapeak达到顶峰toupswing/anupswing摇摆上升toclimb爬升growsteadily稳定增长torise上升togrow增长toexpand扩张表下降趋势tocollapse/acollapse大幅下降todrop/adrop下跌tofall下降toreachalowpoint达到最低点reachthebottomof达到谷底todecline下降todecrease减少togodown下降areduction下降crash崩溃、崩盘plummet骤然下跌表程度程度较大：marked/markedly显著的quick/quickly快速的sudden/suddenly突然apparent/apparently明显的

considerable/considerably相当的dramatic/dramatically剧烈sharp/sharply大幅strong/strongly强烈的significant/significantly显著的obvious/obviously明显的agreatdeal大幅的程度较小：abit稍许fractional/fractionally稍许gradual/gradually逐渐gentle/gently轻微hardly很少slight/slightly稍许slow