投资学英文版课件Ch1 An Introduction to Investments

Chapter1

AnIntroductiontoInvestments---February,2015Chapter1

AnIntroductiontoInvestmentsWhat’sinvestmentFinancialAssetsandRealAssetsInvestmentgoalsSourceofRisksEfficientandCompetitiveMarketsAboutthissubjectAboutthetextbookAssessmentWhatisInvestment?Ifyouhave1000yuan,whatwillyoudo?10,000100,0001,000,000Differentchoices:PresentConsumption?Ameal?Acoat?Atwo-daycitysightseeing?Depositsinbankaccounts?Purchaseofstocksorbonds?Otherchoices?AntiqueRealestatesRentasmallstoreForfutureconsumptionYourpurposeforthesechoices?PresentConsumptionCurrentsatisfactionofdifferentneedsUtilitiesOtherchoicesFutureprofits/futureconsumptionWhatisanInvestment?AnInvestmentisthecurrentcommitmentofmoneyorotherresourcesintheexpectationofreapingfuturebenefits.Anindividualpurchased1000sharesofstockanticipatingthatthefutureproceedsfromtheshareswilljustifythetimethathermoneyistiedup;theriskoftheinvestment;Inflation;ExcessiveMoneyCurrentConsumptionInvestmentsStocksbondsOtherfinancialinstrumentsBuygoodsorservicesFutureconsumption汉姆·列维《投资学》

投资是利用金融资本努力创造更多的财富。威廉·F.夏普《投资学基础》投资是为未来收入货币而奉献当前的货币。

投资是指经济主体将一定的资金或资源投入某项事业，以获得未来经济效益的经济活动。OtherdefinitionsMacroeconomicsGNP=C+I+G+(X–M)MoneyorotherresourcesusedbybusinessestopurchasecapitalgoodsTwotypes:InvestmentonfixedassetsInvestmentoninventoryFormationofcapital;

increase

ofsocialcapitalIncreaseofplants,equipment,inventoriesandbuildingsBroaddefinitionofinvestmentFinancialInvestment：investmentinfinancialmarkets;deposits,bonds,stocks,funds,foreignexchange,insurance,futures...Investmentincommoditymarkets;realestate,treasuries,stamps,antiques...Industrialinvestment;stores,businesses...FinancialInvestmentDefinition:

Investmentonfinancialassets;Transformationofmoneyfundsintofinancialassets;Separationoffundsownersandusers;Noincreaseofsocialproductionortotalinvestment—zerosumgameFinancialAssetsDefinition:Financialinstruments;securities;DocumentsorcertificateswhichrepresentfuturereturnsorlegalclaimsonsomeassetsRealAssetsvs.FinancialAssetsRealAssets:materialwealthofaneconomy;land,building,machinesandknowledgethatcanbeusedtoproducegoodsandservices;contributedirectlytotheproductivecapacityoftheeconomylandbuildingmachineknowledgeRealassetsFinancialassets:sheetsof

paper

orcomputerentries;claims

ontheincomegeneratedbyrealassetsorincomefromthegovernment;notcontributedirectlytotheproductivecapacityoftheeconomy;ROIultimatelycomefromtheincomeproducedbytherealassets;Allocationofincomeorwealthamonginvestors;FinancialassetsPricesforbothrealassetsandfinancialassetsaredeterminedbysupplyanddemand人民币存款利率表Table1.1BalanceSheetofUSHouseholds,2007

Assets$Billion%TotalRealassts

Realestate22,87432.9%Consumerdurables3,9665.7%Other247

0.4%

Totalrealassets27,08638.9%FinancialassetsDeposits6,6299.5%Lifeinsurance1,1741.7%Pension12,18817.5%Corporateequity5,3917.7%Equityinnoncorp.Business7,55310.9%Mutualfundshares5,1237.4%Debtsecurities3,1604.5%Other1,305

1.9%

Totalfinancialassets

42,522

61.1%

Total$69,608100.0%

Liabilities&NetWorth$Billion%Total

Mortgages10,07014.5%Consumercredit2,4133.5%Bank&otherloans2220.3%Securitycredit3100.4%Other418

0.6%

Totalliabilities$13,43119.3%

Networth

56,177

80.7%Total$69,608100.0%Table1.2Domesticnetworth

Assets$BillionNonresidentialrealestate$9,549Residentialrealestate28,265Equipmentandsoftware4,498Inventories1,759Consumerdurables3,966

Total

$48,038FinancialAssetsinChinaFinancialassetsinSNA(国民经济核算),1993:monetarygoldandSDRscurrencyanddepositssecuritiesexceptstocksloansstocksandotherequitiesinsurancereservesAccountsReceivablesandPayables

金融资产与金融投资金融资产

金融资产是指一切代表未来收益或资产合法要求权的凭证，亦称为金融工具或证券金融投资

金融投资主要是以金融资产为投资对象的投资。实质是资金所有者和资金使用者的分离，是资产所有权和资产经营权的分离

实物投资与金融投资

实物投资主要是以实物资产为对象，是投入资金以建造或购置固定资产和与之相联系的流动资产而取得收益的一种实际资产化的过程。实物资产是金融资产存在和发展的基础.

金融资产的收益最终来源于实物资产在社会再生产过程中的创造。金融投资是将货币资金转化为金融资产，而不是转化为实物资产，因而没有引起社会再生产扩大和社会总投资的增加。只有当金融投资被直接投资者运用于直接投资时，才会使社会总投资增加和社会再生产规模扩大。FurtherThoughtsFinancialassetskeepveryclosetieswithrealassets.Thebreakupoffinancialassetsfromrealassetsmaycausebubblesinfinancialmarkets!1990sJapanesefinancialbubbles2007AmericanfinancialbubblesThebiggerbubbleoffinancialassets,themoredamagesofrealassets!ConceptCheck-1Arethefollowingassetsfinancial?

Patentsleaseobligationscustomergoodwillacollegeeducationa$5billWhatcanyouinveston?案例：假设你要结婚了，你太太想要拍婚纱照，预算资金为人民币5000元。作为一名投资家，你有更好的投资方案吗？一个投资家的婚纱照

——金融工具无所不在出同样的钱，请一位现在还默默无闻的画师来给你们画一幅婚礼盛装的油画。好处：满足太太的需要；创造了一个期权：画师、你和你太太三个人中间，只要有一个人将来出名了，那么这幅油画就价值连城了。

因为油画是比照片更好的金融工具，吸收更多市场信息，承载着更多有关画师是否出名的不确定性。OurtextfocusesonfinancialinvestmentYouneedtoknowmoreaboutthevariousfinancialproducts/assetsinthemarketsDomesticForeignOryoumayentrustyourmoneywithanprofessionalagenttoinvestTypesofFinancialAssetsThreebroadtypesoffinancialassetsA.FixedincomeB.EquityC.DerivativesA.FixedIncomeFixed-incomeordebtsecuritiespromiseeitherafixedstreamofincomeorastreamofincomethatisdeterminedaccordingtoaspecifiedformula.BondsissuedbyChinesegovernmentExample:Fixed-ratebonds:acorporatebond--afixedamountofinteresteachyear;Floating-ratebondsabond--aninterestratethatisfixedat2%abovetheratepaidonUST-bills;Fixed-incomesecuritiescomeinatremendousvarietyofmaturitiesandpaymentprovisions.short-term,highlymarketable,lower-riskydebtsecuritiesinthemoneymarket;UST-bills(Treasurybills)CDsShort-termdebtsLong-termsecuritiesinthefixed-incomecapitalmarketT-bonds(Treasurybond)bondsissuedbyfederalagencies,stateandlocalmunicipalities,andcorporationsLong-termbondsThesebondsrangefromverysafeintermsofdefaultrisktorelativelyrisky.T-bonds(leastdefaultrisk)Junkbonds(relativelyhighdefaultrisk)B.EquitiesEquityorcommonstockinafirmrepresentsanownershipshareinthecorporation.CharacteristicsEquityholdersarenotpromisedanyparticularpayment;Theyreceiveanydividendsthefirmmaypayandhaveproratedownershipintherealassetsofthefirm;Theperformanceofequityinvestmentsistieddirectlytothesuccessofthefirmanditsrealassets;riskierthaninvestmentsindebtsecurities;C.DerivativeSecuritiesDerivativesecuritiesprovidepayoffsthataredeterminedbythepricesofotherassets.Types:options;futures;swaps;Example:AcalloptiononashareofIntelstockworthless--ifIntel'ssharepriceremainsbelowathresholdor"exercise"price;valuable--ifIntel'ssharepricerisesabovethelevel;Derivativesecuritiesaresonamedbecausetheirvaluesderivefromthepricesofotherassets.Example--formercaseThevalueofthecalloptionwilldependonthepriceofIntelstock;Derivativeshavebecomeanintegralpartoftheinvestmentenvironment.Usesofderivatives:(primaryuse)tohedgerisksortransferthemtootherparties;riskmanagementroutinelytakenmultitrillion-dollarmarkettotakehighlyspeculativepositions;一家美国公司在3月以优惠利率借入1000万加拿大元，借期3个月，公司将借入的加元在外汇市场上按即期汇率1加元=0．835美元换成835万美元使用。公司担心3个月后加元对美元升值，会使还款的美元成本加大，因此决定同时在期货市场上买进加元的期货合约，3个月后再卖出相同数量的加元期货合约，以期保值。

日期 现汇市场 期货市场

3月 将借入的1000万加元换成835万美元买进100份6月加元期货合约按即期汇率1加元=0．835美元（每份合约10万加元）价格：1加元=0．834美元

100份合约共834万美元

6月 买进1000万加元以偿还借款卖出100份6月加元期货合约按即期汇率1加元=0．838美元价格：1加元=0．8377美元共用838万美元100份合约共837．7万美元

交易损益 由于加元升值公司损失3万美元 获利3.7（837.7-834）万美元（不考虑手续费） 结果 以期货交易的获利弥补现汇交易的损失，相抵后仍获利7000美元 Otherinvestments:preciousmetals;agriculturalproducts;53IntroductiontoPortfolioConstructionIncomeiseitherspentorsaved.Savingsareinvested.Theinvestmentsconstituteaportfolio(acombinationofassetsdesignedtoserveasastoreofvalue)54IntroductiontoPortfolioConstructionThecompositionofaportfoliodependsonthegoalsoftheinvestortherisksinvolvedtaxesthatwillbeimposedonanygainKnowledgeoftheavailableinvestmentopportunities55IntroductiontoPortfolioConstructionThecompositionofaportfoliodependsonthegoalsoftheinvestortherisksinvolvedtaxesthatwillbeimposedonanygainKnowledgeoftheavailableinvestmentopportunities56TheGoalsoftheInvestorFundstomeetemergenciesFundstofinanceeducationexpensesFundstomakeaspecifiedpurchase(e.g.,ahome)FundsforretirementIndividualInvestorLifeCycleNetWorth－assetminusdebtAgeAccumulationPhaseLong-term: Retirement Children’scollege Short-term: House CarConsolidationPhaseLong-term: RetirementShort-term:VacationsChildren’sCollegeSpendingPhaseGiftingPhaseLong-term: EstatePlanningShort-term: LifestyleNeedsGifts

Mayo/BasicInvestments,1e58FinancialGoals?Futurereturns/benefits/gains?Incomedividend,interest…Cash,shares…CapitalgainsTheamountofprofitrealizedwhenanassetsoldatapricehigherthanthepurchaseprice.Mayo/BasicInvestments,1e59Howtoachieveyourfinancialgoal?ValueandvaluationValue:Valuation:RateofreturnTheearningsorprofitonmoneywelendorinvestexpressedasapercentageoftheamountofmoneyloanedorinvested;Differentwaytoevaluateyourrateofreturn?60IntroductiontoPortfolioConstructionThecompositionofaportfoliodependsonthegoalsoftheinvestor

therisksinvolvedtaxesthatwillbeimposedonanygainKnowledgeoftheavailableinvestmentopportunities61Exhibit1.1TheSourcesofRiskDefinitionDiversifiableriskTheriskassociatedwiththespecificassetandisreducedthroughtheconstructionofadiversifiedportfolio.NondiversifiableRiskTheriskassociatedwith(1)fluctuatingsecuritypricesingeneral(2)fluctuatinginterestrates(3)reinvestmentrates(4)thelossofpurchasingpowerthroughinflation(5)lossfromchangesinthevalueofexchangerates.Theyarenotaffectedbytheconstructionofadiversifiedportfolio.A.NondiversifiableRisk12345FluctuatingsecuritypricesingeneralFluctuatinginterestratesReinvestmentsratesThelossofpurchasingpowerThelossfromchangesinthevalueofexchangerates1-Fluctuatingsecuritypricesingeneral

Assetreturnstendtomovetogether.GeneralsecuritypricesAspecificsecurityGeneralsecuritypricesAspecificsecurity2-Fluctuatinginterestrates

Asystematicnegativerelationshipexistsbetweenthepricesoffixed-incomesecuritiesandchangesininterestrates.InterestratesPricesoffixed-incomesecurities

Thesamerelationshipexistsbetweencommonstockandinterestrates.reasonsFuturecashflowsfromcommonstocksarebeingdiscountedathigherrates,sotheirpresentvaluesarelower.Themovementfromstocktohigher-payingdebtinstrumentstendstodepressstockprices.SubstituteeffectDDM的总公式及评价公式特点：只包含股利这一个因素。DMM最重要的性质：任意一期的预期收益率都等于市场资本报酬率k。3-ReinvestmentsratesWhenreinvestmentrateschange,theamountreceivedonthesereinvestedfundsalsochanges.

early1980s-relativelyhighinterestrates-highreinvestedyields2000s-lowestinterestrates—earnedlossonreinvestedfunds

2examples4-Thelossofpurchasingpower

Investorsmustalsoendurethelossofpurchasingpowerthroughinflation.

Risingpricesofgoods&servicesReducingpurchasingpowerDecliningincomeandassetvaluesInvestorsshouldearnareturnthatexceedstherateofinflation.5-Thelossfromchangesinthevalueofexchangerates

Ifinvestorsacquireforeigninvestments,theproceedsofthesaleoftheforeignassetmustbeconvertedfromtheforeigncurrencyintothedomesticcurrencybeforetheymaybespent.ValueofforeigncurrencyValueofforeigninvestment(inhomecurrency)DomesticinvestorgainsYoucanavoidexchange-rateriskbynotacquiringforeignassets.Otherrisks—politicalrisksB.DiversifiableRisk

SourcesofunsystematicriskBusinessriskFinancialrisk1-businessrisk

definitionThenatureofthefirm’soperations.e.g.forairlines—costoffuel,legalandregulatoryenvironment,capacityofplanes,seasonalchangesindemand…2-financialrisk

definitionHowthefirmfinancesitsassets.Whetherthefirmusesasubstantialormodestamountofdebtfinancing.(choicesamongissuingbonds,preferredstock,commonstock,leasing,borrowing…)Attention:Unsystematicriskappliestoallclassesofinvestments.Youcannotanticipatealltheeventsthatwillaffectaparticularfirmorgovernment.ExampleofamunicipalsecuritiesBusinessrisk:Thesafetyprotectionorordermaintenance;Financialrisk:Taxes(relyingonpropertytaxesorincometaxes);DecliningpropertyvaluesIncreasingunemployment

DiversificationDiversifiedindustriesDiversifiedassetsC.TotalRiskThecombinationofsystematicandunsystematicriskisdefinedasthetotalriskorportfoliorisk.Unsystematicriskmaybesignificantlyreducedthroughdiversification.Topurchasethesecuritiesoffirmsofdifferentindustries.Mayo/BasicInvestments,1e81RiskToleranceRisk:Thepossibilitythataninvestmentwillnotproducethereturnweexpectorthatwewillactuallylosemoney.Differentrisktolerance:Risk-taker(speculator)Risk-avoidance(conservatives)In-the-middleRiskversusSpeculationMayo/BasicInvestments,1e82CharacteristicsMorerisksRiskscouldbeexpectedFunctionsTakerisksBalancepricesActivatemarketsSpeculationFormoreprofitsBasedoninformationcollectionandanalysisMoreprofessional

HarmonizedifferentmarketsorproductsMayo/BasicInvestments,1e83交易目的不同股票投资者在本金安全的基础上获得长期稳定的股息收入；投机者期望在短期的价格涨跌中取得资本所得。持有时间不同投资者一般持有股票时间都在一年以上；投机者可能只有几月、几周，甚至几天、几小时。风险倾向不同交易方式不同决策依据不同投资者的准则是“安全第一”，宁可少一点收益也不愿承担过大的风险；投机者多以“收益第一”作为投资准则，为了可观的收益，宁愿冒很大的风险。投资者买卖股票的同时进行货币收付；用于投机的资金多从他人处借得，主要是买空和卖空，并不伴随实际的交割行为。投资行为的做出基于对股票发行公司的分析考察；投机行为侧重于对市场行情短期变化的预测。投机与投资的区别84IntroductiontoPortfolioConstructionThecompositionofaportfoliodependsonthegoalsoftheinvestortherisksinvolvedtaxesthatwillbeimposedonanygainKnowledgeoftheavailableinvestmentopportunitiesMayo/BasicInvestments,1e85TaxationTaxationSpendingofaninvestment;Differentforms;Governmentearnings;OtherformsofinvestmentcostThecompositionofaportfoliodependsonthegoalsoftheinvestortherisksinvolvedtaxesthatwillbeimposedonanygainKnowledgeoftheavailableinvestmentopportunities86IntroductiontoPortfolioConstructionLearnmoreaboutthefinancialproductsinthemarkets.UnderstandyourselfYourmoneyandotherresourcesthatcanbeinvested.Howmuchriskcanyoutake?YourinvestmentgoalsBuildupyourowninvestmentphylosophyKnowledgeoftheAvailable

InvestmentOpportunities

Mayo/BasicInvestments,1e88Wheredoweinvest?FinancialMarkets:PrimarymarketsorSecondarymarketsSecuritymarkets,goldmarkets,foreignexchangemarkets,moneymarkets,bankborrowingandlendingmarkets,insurancemarket….DefinitionofTheEfficientMarketHypothesisEMHAtheorythatsecuritypricescorrectlymeasurethefirm’sfutureearningsanddividendsandthatinvestorsshouldnotconsistentlyoutperformthemarketonarisk-adjustedbasis.ShouldoccasionallyoutperformOveranextendedperiodoftimeAssumptionsTherearealargenumberofcompetingparticipantsinthesecuritiesmarket.Informationisreadilyavailableandvirtuallycostlesstoobtain.Transactioncostsaresmall.SecuritiesMarketsHighlycompetitive;Informationisreadilyavailable;Minimaltransactioncosts;StockPrices

TheEMHarguesthatsecuritypricesadjustrapidlytonewinformationandmustreflectallknowinformationconcerningthefirm.Followinarandomwalkovertime.UnpredictablepricechangesRandomWalkNotsuitabletodescribethepatternofchangesinsecuritypricesdueto:Overaperiodoftime,stockpriceswillriskasfirmsandtheeconomygrow.Itisthechangesinsecuritypricesthatarerandom.AllknowninformationThenewinformationrandomSpeedofPriceAdjustmentDisseminatenewinformationStockpricesadjustimmediatelyInvestorsthenknowitNoprofitfromactingontheinformationFormsoftheEMHTheweakformFormsoftheEMHSemistrongformStrongformMayo/BasicInvestments,1e96弱式有

效市场证券价格充分反映了历史上一系列交易价格和交易量中所隐含的信息，从而投资者不可能通过对以往的价格进行分析而获得超额利润。证券当前价格完全反映所有公开信息，不仅包括证券价格序列信息，还包括有关公司价值的信息、有关宏观经济形势和政策方面的信息。证券价格总是能及时、充分地反映所有相关信息，包括所有公开的信息和内幕信息。半强式

有效市场强式有

效市场有效市场分类TheWeakFormThehistoricalinformationconcerningthefirmshasalreadyreflectedinthestockprice.Fundamentalanalysisdoeswork;Technicalanalysiswillnot.TheSemi-strongFormAllthepublic’sinformationconcerningthefirmshasalreadyreflectedinthestockprice.Boththe

FundamentalandTechnicalanalysisdonotwork.TheStrongFormAllknown,allprivilegedorinsideinformationconcerningthefirmshasalreadyreflectedinthestockprice.Nobodywillachievesuperiorresults.ImplicationsoftheEMH

TheEMHbringstoyourattentiontheenvironmentinwhichyoumakefinancialdecisions.

Itsuggeststhatyouwillnotconsistentlymakeinvestmentsthatproducesupe