国际商务PPT第十章

InternationalBusiness

9eByCharlesW.L.HillMcGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright©2013byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Chapter10TheForeignExchangeMarketWhyIsTheForeign

ExchangeMarketImportant?Theforeignexchangemarket

isusedtoconvertthecurrencyofonecountryintothecurrencyofanotherprovidessomeinsuranceagainstforeignexchangerisk

-theadverseconsequencesofunpredictablechangesinexchangeratesTheexchangerateistherateatwhichonecurrencyisconvertedintoanothereventsintheforeignexchangemarketaffectfirmsales,profits,andstrategyWhenDoFirmsUseTheForeignExchangeMarket?Internationalcompaniesusetheforeignexchangemarketwhenthepaymentstheyreceiveforexports,theincometheyreceivefromforeigninvestments,ortheincometheyreceivefromlicensingagreementswithforeignfirmsareinforeigncurrenciestheymustpayaforeigncompanyforitsproductsorservicesinitscountry’scurrencytheyhavesparecashthattheywishtoinvestforshorttermsinmoneymarketstheyareinvolvedin

currencyspeculation-theshort-termmovementoffundsfromonecurrencytoanotherinthehopesofprofitingfromshiftsinexchangeratesHowCanFirmsHedgeAgainstForeignExchangeRisk?Theforeignexchangemarketprovidesinsurancetoprotectagainstforeignexchangerisk

thepossibilitythatunpredictedchangesinfutureexchangerateswillhaveadverseconsequencesforthefirmAfirmthatinsuresitselfagainstforeignexchangeriskishedgingWhatIsTheDifferenceBetweenSpotRatesAndForwardRates?ThespotexchangerateistherateatwhichaforeignexchangedealerconvertsonecurrencyintoanothercurrencyonaparticulardayspotrateschangecontinuallydependingonthesupplyanddemandforthatcurrencyandothercurrenciesSpotexchangeratescanbequotedastheamountofforeigncurrencyoneU.S.dollarcanbuy,orasthevalueofadollarforoneunitofforeigncurrencyWhatIsTheDifferenceBetweenSpotRatesAndForwardRates?ValueoftheU.S.DollarAgainstOtherCurrencies2/12/11WhatIsTheDifferenceBetweenSpotRatesAndForwardRates?Toinsureorhedgeagainstapossibleadverseforeignexchangeratemovement,firmsengageinforwardexchanges

twopartiesagreetoexchangecurrencyandexecutethedealatsomespecificdateinthefutureAforwardexchangerateistherateusedforthesetransactionsratesforcurrencyexchangearetypicallyquotedfor30,90,or180daysintothefutureWhatIsACurrencySwap?AcurrencyswapisthesimultaneouspurchaseandsaleofagivenamountofforeignexchangefortwodifferentvaluedatesSwapsaretransactedbetweeninternationalbusinessesandtheirbanksbetweenbanksbetweengovernmentswhenitisdesirabletomoveoutofonecurrencyintoanotherforalimitedperiodwithoutincurringforeignexchangerateriskWhatIsTheNatureOfThe

ForeignExchangeMarket?Theforeignexchangemarketisaglobalnetworkofbanks,brokers,andforeignexchangedealersconnectedbyelectroniccommunicationssystemstheaveragetotalvalueofglobalforeignexchangetradinginMarch,1986wasjust$200billion,inApril,2010ithit$4trillionperdaythemostimportanttradingcentersareLondon,NewYork,Zurich,Tokyo,andSingaporethemarketisalwaysopensomewhereintheworld—itneversleepsDoExchangeRatesDifferBetweenMarkets?High-speedcomputerlinkagesbetweentradingcentersmeanthereisnosignificantdifferencebetweenexchangeratesinthedifferingtradingcentersIfexchangeratesquotedindifferentmarketswerenotessentiallythesame,therewouldbeanopportunityfor

arbitrage

theprocessofbuyingacurrencylowandsellingithighDoExchangeRatesDifferBetweenMarkets?Mosttransactionsinvolvedollarsononeside—itisavehiclecurrency

85%ofallforeignexchangetransactionsinvolvetheU.S.dollarothervehiclecurrenciesaretheeuro,theJapaneseyen,andtheBritishpoundChina’srenminbiisstillonlyusedforabout0.3%offoreignexchangetransactionsHowAreExchangeRatesDetermined?ExchangeratesaredeterminedbythedemandandsupplyfordifferentcurrenciesThreefactorsimpactfutureexchangeratemovementsAcountry’spriceinflationAcountry’sinterestrateMarketpsychologyHowDoPrices

InfluenceExchangeRates?Thelawofonepricestatesthatincompetitivemarketsfreeoftransportationcostsandbarrierstotrade,identicalproductssoldindifferentcountriesmustsellforthesamepricewhentheirpriceisexpressedintermsofthesamecurrencyotherwisethereisanopportunityforarbitrageuntilpricesequalizebetweenthetwomarketsHowDoPrices

InfluenceExchangeRates?Purchasingpowerparitytheory(PPP)arguesthatgivenrelativelyefficientmarkets(amarketwithnoimpedimentstothefreeflowofgoodsandservices)thepriceofa“basketofgoods”shouldberoughlyequivalentineachcountrypredictsthatchangesinrelativepriceswillresultinachangeinexchangeratesHowDoPrices

InfluenceExchangeRates?Apositiverelationshipexistsbetweentheinflationrateandthelevelofmoneysupplywhenthegrowthinthemoneysupplyisgreaterthanthegrowthinoutput,inflationwilloccurPPPtheorysuggeststhatchangesinrelativepricesbetweencountrieswillleadtoexchangeratechanges,atleastintheshortrunacountrywithhighinflationshouldseeitscurrencydepreciaterelativetoothersHowDoPrices

InfluenceExchangeRates?Question:

HowwelldoesPPPwork?EmpiricaltestingofPPPtheorysuggeststhatitismostaccurateinthelongrun,andforcountrieswithhighinflationandunderdevelopedcapitalmarketsitislessusefulforpredictingshorttermexchangeratemovementsbetweenthecurrenciesofadvancedindustrializednationsthathaverelativelysmalldifferentialsininflationratesHowDoInterestRates

InfluenceExchangeRates?TheInternationalFisherEffectstatesthatforanytwocountriesthespotexchangerateshouldchangeinanequalamountbutintheoppositedirectiontothedifferenceinnominalinterestratesbetweentwocountriesInotherwords: [(S1-S2)/S2]x100=i$-i¥wherei$andi¥aretherespectivenominalinterestratesintwocountries(inthiscasetheU.S.andJapan),S1isthespotexchangerateatthebeginningoftheperiodandS2isthespotexchangerateattheendoftheperiodHowDoesInvestorPsychology

InfluenceExchangeRates?Thebandwagoneffect

occurswhenexpectationsonthepartoftradersturnintoself-fulfillingprophecies-traderscanjointhebandwagonandmoveexchangeratesbasedongroupexpectationsinvestorpsychologyandbandwagoneffectsgreatlyinfluenceshorttermexchangeratemovementsgovernmentinterventioncanpreventthebandwagonfromstarting,butisnotalwayseffectiveShouldCompaniesUseExchangeRateForecastingServices?TherearetwoschoolsofthoughtTheefficientmarketschool-forwardexchangeratesdothebestpossiblejobofforecastingfuturespotexchangerates,and,therefore,investinginforecastingserviceswouldbeawasteofmoneyTheinefficientmarketschool-companiescanimprovetheforeignexchangemarket’sestimateoffutureexchangeratesbyinvestinginforecastingservicesShouldCompaniesUseExchangeRateForecastingServices?Anefficientmarketisoneinwhichpricesreflectallavailableinformationiftheforeignexchangemarketisefficient,thenforwardexchangeratesshouldbeunbiasedpredictorsoffuturespotratesMostempiricaltestsconfirmtheefficientmarkethypothesissuggestingthatcompaniesshouldnotwastetheirmoneyonforecastingservicesShouldCompaniesUseExchangeRateForecastingServices?Aninefficientmarketisoneinwhichpricesdonotreflectallavailableinformationinaninefficientmarket,forwardexchangerateswillnotbethebestpossiblepredictorsoffuturespotexchangeratesanditmaybeworthwhileforinternationalbusinessestoinvestinforecastingservicesHowever,thetrackrecordofforecastingservicesisnotgoodHowAreExchange

RatesPredicted?Twoschoolsofthoughtonforecasting:Fundamentalanalysisdrawsuponeconomicfactorslikeinterestrates,monetarypolicy,inflationrates,orbalanceofpaymentsinformationtopredictexchangeratesTechnicalanalysischartstrendswiththeassumptionthatpasttrendsandwavesarereasonablepredictorsoffuturetrendsandwaves

AreAllCurrencies

FreelyConvertible?Acurrencyisfreelyconvertiblewhenagovernmentofacountryallowsbothresidentsandnon-residentstopurchaseunlimitedamountsofforeigncurrencywiththedomesticcurrencyAcurrencyisexternallyconvertiblewhennon-residentscanconverttheirholdingsofdomesticcurrencyintoaforeigncurrency,butwhentheabilityofresidentstoconvertcurrencyislimitedinsomewayAcurrencyisnonconvertiblewhenbothresidentsandnon-residentsareprohibitedfromconvertingtheirholdingsofdomesticcurrencyintoaforeigncurrencyAreAllCurrencies

FreelyConvertible?MostcountriestodaypracticefreeconvertibilitybutmanycountriesimposerestrictionsontheamountofmoneythatcanbeconvertedCountrieslimitconvertibilitytopreserveforeignexchangereservesandpreventcapitalflight

whenresidentsandnonresidentsrushtoconverttheirholdingsofdomesticcurrencyintoaforeigncurrencymostlikelytooccurintimesofhyperinflationoreconomiccrisisAreAllCurrencies

FreelyConvertible?Whenacurrencyisnonconvertible,firmsmayturntocountertrade

barter-likeagreementswheregoodsandservicesaretradedforothergoodsandserviceswasmorecommoninthepastwhenmorecurrencieswerenonconvertible,buttodayinvolveslessthan10%ofworldtradeWhatDoExchangeRates

MeanForManagers?ManagersneedtoconsiderthreetypesofforeignexchangeriskTransactionexposure-theextenttowhichtheincomefromindividualtransactionsisaffectedbyfluctuationsinforeignexchangevaluesincludesobligationsforthepurchaseorsaleofgoodsandservicesatpreviouslyagreedpricesandtheborrowingorlendingoffundsinforeigncurrenciesWhatDoExchangeRates

MeanForManagers?Translationexposure-theimpactofcurrencyexchangeratechangesonthereportedfinancialstatementsofacompanyconcernedwiththepresentmeasurementofpasteventsgainsorlossesare“paperlosses”theyareunrealizedWhatDoExchangeRates

MeanForManagers?Economicexposure-theextenttowhichafirm’sfutureinternationalearningpowerisaffectedbychangesinexchangeratesconcernedwiththelong-termeffectofchangesinexchangeratesonfutureprices,sales,andcostsHowCanManagers

MinimizeExchangeRateRisk?Tominimizetransactionandtranslationexposure,managersshouldBuyforwardUseswapsLeadandlagpayablesandreceivablesleadandlagstrategiescanbedifficulttoimplementHowCanManagers

MinimizeExchangeRateRisk?Leadstrategy-attempttocollectforeigncurrencyreceivablesearlywhenaforeigncu