2022年东南亚数字经济报告

Throughthewaves,towardsaseaofopportunity2seser32017201820172018 digitaleconomy202120202022201201920302030WithcontributionsfromNotes:AlldollaramountsareinUSD.BainconductedinterviewsandaquantitativesurveyofSEA-focusedventurecapitalinvestorsinQ32022,n=30.Allquotesinthereportattributedto‘VC’arefrominterviewsconductedwithSEA-focusedventurecapitalistsinJune-August2022,andhavebeenredactedforbrevityandeditorialclarity.*GooglecommissionedIpsostorunthee-ConomySEAconsumersurvey.TheresearchwasconductedinIndonesia,Malaysia,Philippines,Singapore,Thailand,andVietnam.Fieldworkinurbancitiesranonlinefrom18/07/2022-06/08/2022viaa25-minuteComputerAssistedWebInterviewsurvey,withatotalof4,995respondentsinterviewed.Fieldworkinsuburbancitiesranfrom29/07/2022-24/08/2022viaoffline-recruit-to-onlinesurveyswithconnectedconsumers,alongwithofflinerecruitmentviaarandomiseddoor-to-doorapproach,withquotacontrolsondemographicsonatotalof2,059respondentsacrossIndonesia,Malaysia,thePhilippines,Thailand,andVietnam.Analysiswasconductedwithdataweightedbasedonage,gender,region,monthlyhouseholdincome,andinternetusagefrequencyforamoreaccurateandfairerrepresentationofthemarkets,andtheregionasawhole.455VIETNAM98M600M6MtotalpopulationND70M33M280MVIETNAM98M600M6MtotalpopulationND70M33M280M66arketcoverageitaleconomyNascentsectorsHeaWeb3Web3E-commerceOnlinemediaorsOnlinetravel701030402010304020507Contents0606NavigatingmacroeconomicheadwindsApproaching$200BdrivetheeconomySectorsencounterdifferentgrowthtrendsinancialservicesnntthe8techinvestmentsdigitaleconomycontributionetssocialconcernsChartingthecourseforthedigitaldecadegeaneds9Navigatingmacroeconomicheadwindsheadwindsstartedtoblow.6%85%6%85%COVIDCOVID-19vaccinationrates,bycountry889%Notes:Basedontheproportionoftheeligiblepopulationthathasreceivedatleasttwovaccinedoses.Dataisup-to-dateasofAugust2022.Source:WorldHealthOrganization120-40-60-800-40-60-800-500-40-600-50earenowrethepandemicGoogleGoogleRetailMobilityData,bycountryandindexedtopre-pandemicbaselinesJul2020Jan2021Jul2021Jan2022Jul2022JulJul2020Jan2021Jul2021Jan2022Jul2022Jul2020Jan2021Jul2021Jan2022Jul2022JulJul2020Jan2021Jul2021Jan2022Jul2022Notes:RetailMobilityTrendstracksdatarelatedtoplacessuchasshoppingcentres,restaurants,cafes,themeparks,museums,libraries,andmovietheatres.Thepre-pandemicbaselinesarethemedianvaluefortherespectivecorrespondingdayoftheweek,duringthe5-weekperiodofJanuary3-February6,2020.Source:GoogleRetailMobilityData0-500-50Jul2020Jan2021Jul2021Jan2022Jul2022Jul2020Jan2021Jul2021Jan2022Jul202213orecoveryMobilityrestrictionsGeopoliticaltensions14sReduceddisposableincomeIncreasingpricesLessproductavailability154.7%5.5%4.7%6.0%5%4.2%%5%0.9%%4.3%4.2%44.7%5.5%4.7%6.0%5%4.2%%5%0.9%%4.3%4.2%4.5%5%0.6%5%0.5%0.4%0.7%0.3%0.2%1-monthinterbankrates44.8%1820192020202120221617Note:Dataisup-to-dateasofAugust2022.17Sources:S&PGlobalMarketIntelligence,WorldBank,Bainanalysis4.94.620.9ationremainsrelativelymoderateationremainsrelativelymoderateY2020-20212021-20222022-20232020-20212021-2022.7186.955.80SEAChinaIndiaEUUSA.28.286.8620.90SEAChinaIndiaEUUSAApproaching$200B19r19(+4%)400M(+4%)400M020●●64%64%%%%0%●●64%64%%%%0%ersngandmusic-on-demandisminimalasEcommerceFooddeliveryTransportOnlinegroceriesNote:‘Digitaladoption’accountsforbothactiveusers(lastusedinthepast3months)andlapsedusers(lastusedmorethan3monthsago).Question:S8.Whichoftheseactivitieshaveyoudonebefore?Weightedbase:DigitalusersinurbanSEAinternetpopulation,n=4,498perverticalSource:Google-commissionedIpsose-ConomySEAResearch20222021forgrowth.deeperengagementwithexistingcustomers.ofdigitalpopulationdemographicLocationofdigitalpopulationdemographicLocationIncomeAgeopulationAffluentusersnativesMetromainstream‘Onabudget’users●●Whatsnewthisyear?urbanyrsuburbancitiesinsuburbancitieswhohavingmadeapurchaseinatleastonedigitalvertical.Allsuburbancitiesinthesurveyhavepopulationsbetween50,000and200,000atleastonceeverytwoweeks.22Note:‘%ofdigitalpopulation’isbasedonweightedsurveyresults(age,gender,householdincome,location22Therewillbemarginaldifferencesbetweensuburbanuserswhensegmentedbyincomeandage.Weightedbase:SEAinternetpopulation,n=7,054perverticalSource:Google-commissionedIpsose-ConomySEAResearch2022Music-on-demandVideo-on-demanddeliveryE-commerceGroceriesingMusic-on-demandVideo-on-demanddeliveryE-commerceGroceriesingnsportigitalservicesonacrossdigitalservicesAffluentAffluentnativesMetromainstream‘Onabudget’anintegralpartoftheirmodernE-commerceadoptionhasspreadtosuburbanconsumerswhilemainlyurbanpractices.Note:‘Digitaladoption’accountsforbothactiveusers(lastusedinthepast3months)andlapsedusers(lastusedmorethan3monthsago).Question:S8.Whichoftheseactivitieshaveyoudoneinthepast?(last3months+morethan3months)23Weightedbase:SEAinternetpopulationweightedbaseincludessurveyrespondentsof(n=7,647across6SEAmarkets)alongwithtop-upsamples(n=497)usedfor23consumerverticalrepresentation.SEAinternetpopulationintheverticalfore-commercen=5,563,groceriesn=4,388,transportn=4,570,fooddeliveryn=4,452,gamingn=2,263,videostreamingn=2,759,musicstreamingn=2,231,traveln=3,768.Source:Google-commissionedIpsose-ConomySEAResearch202224expected.25Notes:Excludesdigitalfinancialservicesandnascentsectors;CAGR=CompoundedAnnualGrowthRate;GMV=GrossMerchandiseValue.25Source:Bainanalysis6920%20%4424436920%20%442443DigitalDigitaleconomyGMV($B)E-commerceTravelFood&transportOnlinemedia20%’22-’25330’22-’2533020%8020262019201920192023-20252020-20222023-20252020-20222023-22019201920192023-20252020-20222023-20252020-20222023-2025theyarefollowingoneofthreegrowthtrajectories20202020-2022ExpectedgrowthtrajectoryS-shapedReturntotrendlineU-shapedSustainedgrowthmomentumtowards2025despiteroutinesymandforserviceslikeGrowthtowards2025returnsclevelsduetoGrowthtowards2025willbeU-shapedgivenrecoveryfrompandemiclowsaslocalmobility27Note:Non-groceryincludesmarketplacesanddirect-to-consumerplatforms.27Source:Bainanalysis50%743340●●●●●50%743340●●●●●SEAe-commerceGMV($B)GroceryNon-grocery’22-’25TaperingbutstillgrowingfrompandemicpeaksOptimisingoperationstoimproveprofitabilityShiftingfromacquisitiontoengagementOnlinegroceriesneedsbetterconsumervalueEnvironmentally-friendlypracticesontherise%49%49%%●●●%49%49%%●●●Monthlyactiveusers(%)talnatives64%GroceriesGroceriesNote:‘Monthlyactiveusage’isderivedfrom%adoptionx%monthlyusagefrequency(amongpayingusers,overthepast3months).Question:A2.Inthelast3months,howoftendidyoupurchase[physicalitems/onlinegroceries]?Weightedbase:ActiveusersbyverticalsinSoutheastAsia,e-commercen=3,801,groceriesn=996.Source:Google-commissionedIpsose-ConomySEAResearch2022alnativesarespendingthe28●●●●●●●●growthaftertriplingduringthepandemicliveryGMVB2465%85%95Consumersgraduallyresumingpre-pandemichabitsCompaniesprioritisingprofitabilityovergrowthUnderpenetratedSEAmarketofferssizableheadroomndBalancingintereststodrivesustainablegrowthe294●●●●ties4●●●●nsportGMVB40%-46%43%83%8.2Transportrisingasmobilityexceedspre-pandemiclevelsProfitabilitymeasuresaffectingthevaluepropositionSupplyshortagesputtingthebrakesonnear-termgrowthsLowpenetrationandrisingurbanisationarelong-termtailwinds58%58%●58%58%●●●ttheyarenotforeveryoneMonthlyMonthlyactiveusers(%)Note:‘Monthlyactiveusage’isderivedfrom%adoptionx%monthlyusagefrequency(amongpayingusers,inthepast3months).Question:A2.Inthelast3months,howoftendidyouorder[acarormotorbikeride/foodonline]?Weightedbase:ActiveusersbyverticalsinSoutheastAsia,transportn=1,126,fooddeliveryn=1,447.Source:Google-commissionedIpsose-ConomySEAResearch2022nearly2Xmorethanthemedian.ontheeaseandconvenienceitprovides.reamconsumersareless31-62%49●●●-62%49●●●AirlinesHotelsVacationrentals‘21-’2244 -32%‘22-’254949%TravelisbackbutrecoverywillbegradualnDomestictravelseeingaquickerrevivalcInternationaltraveltakinglongertoreboundHigh-valuecorridorspartiallychoked32 Travel-relatedsearchtrends,bycountryAveragepre-pandemicsearchinterestIndonesiaMalaysia1001005050025002002010010050075500020020Notes:Includesair-andaccommodation-relatedqueries;indexedsearchesareonafour-weekrollingaverage;pre-pandemicaverageisfortheperiodofJanuary2020.Source:DestinationInsightswithGoogleIndexedsearches100502501005003330%Growth●●●30%Growth●●●PeoplePeopleintendingtotravelinternationally(%)20222023440%35%2%gfsuburbanconsumers,ofwhom50%moreplantotravelinthecountryinsfromlocalgovernmentsarealsohelpingboostNote:Chartrefersto%ofurbanconsumersintendingtotravelinternationallyforleisurepurposes.34Question:H17.Whichofthesetypesoftripshaveyoutaken/areyouintendingtotakeinthefollowing34Base:DigitalusersinSoutheastAsiainthetravelvertical,n=3,768.Source:Google-commissionedIpsose-ConomySEAResearch202235352424lerationOnlinemediaGMV($B)VideoMusicGamingAdsCAGR6--6%’22-’25●●●●●VideodownfrompeaksandbacktotrendlineMusicreturningtonormalityeGamingfacespost-pandemicpullbackDigitaladsmaintainmomentum49%48%46%43%6%35%34%34%●●●49%48%46%43%6%35%34%34%●●●sagebypayingusers556%nafewurbanconsumersegments.ofthemareusingtheserviceonadailyContentvarietyisthetoptriggerforvideoondemanduserstoswitchtriggerformusic-on-demand.3646%56%49%46%56%49%44%45%talopulation●●●QQ.Comparedto2020-2021,howmuchtimedidyouspendplayingdigitalgames?(%)45%4%Question:E21.Comparedto2020-2021(duringthepeakofthepandemic),didyouspendmoreorlesstimeplayingdigitalgames?Base:ActiveandlapsedusersacrossgamingverticalinSoutheastAsia,n=1,851.Source:Google-commissionedIpsose-ConomySEAResearch2022memoretimeonotherhobbies/pronouncedamonglowerincome3738avemadethelandscapemorecompetitive39Notes:GTV=GrossTransactionValues;AUM=AssetsUnderManagement;APE=AnnualPremiumEquivalent;GWP=GrossWritten39Source:BainanalysisCAGR+33%CAGR+29% 4050P 5~60CAGRCAGR+17%062016 R+19%322021202220252030Investment(AUM)+44%CAGR+33%CAGR+29% 4050P 5~60CAGRCAGR+17%062016 R+19%322021202220252030Investment(AUM)+44%20192021202220252030+50%9432offline-to-onlinebehaviourshiftspost-pandemicalservicesBRemittanceflow(GTV)CAGR+13%201920212022202520302019202120222025203020192021202220252030FinancialservicesAggregatornceTelcoInsuranceandewalletRemittanceE-commercesocialmediaConsumerFinanceAirlinesConsumerservicesFinancialservicesAggregatornceTelcoInsuranceandewalletRemittanceE-commercesocialmediaConsumerFinanceAirlinesConsumerservicesConsumertechayfintechsConsumersmerchantsBanksGCashSCBEstablishedfinancialservicesplayersEstablishedconsumerplayersOCBCOCBCEstablishedplayers404141Pure-playfintechs: -OperatingatPure-playfintechs: -Operatingatsubscalelevelsingtedproducts ConsumerConsumertechplatforms: s ?? + -entsinmaturefinancialmarketsconomicsinemergingeconomies42Note:CASA=Currentaccountsandsavingsaccounts.42Source:Bainanalysis““inherentstrengthstodigitalisequicklyDigibanksarestartingtogain““inherentstrengthstodigitalisequicklyDigibanksarestartingtogainswitching%oftotaldepositsSegmentNewentrantsaregraduallygainingconsumerunderbankedviaalternativecreditHighnetworthandaffluentcustomersdrivesytostickwithestablishedfinancialservices.ksareinvestingheavilyinrampinguptheirdigitaledingintechanddigibanksnetworthAffluentaffluent440-50%20-30%15-25%-15%N/A43Note:‘Righttowin’isdefinedastheabilitytogainsizablemarketshareandprofitableeconomicsoverasustainedperiodoftime.43Sources:WorldBank,Bainanalysisnbankedunderbankedlationaged15-35nbankedunderbankedlationaged15-35DigibanksDigibanks’‘righttowin’HighLow30%34%54%4646%34%4%dandunderbankedofferssizableheadroomfor““lowerproportionofunbankedandunderbankedpeople.Incumbentsystemisconcentratedaroundwell-establishedfinancialinstitutionsPrudencecloudstechinvestments45Note:FundingvalueexcludespublicfinancingdealslikePIPE,IPO,ICO.45Source:Bainanalysis●●InvestmentsmaintainedstrongmomentuminH12022,●●butinvestorsaregettingincreasinglycautiousdingvalueBAverage10-yearUStreasuryrate3.2%(Sept2022).4%020styearsupwardmomentumringinvestmentsinH22022investmentsinhighgrowthtechcompanieslesseadingtoaC46Note:PrivatefundingvalueexcludespublicfinancingdealslikePIPE,IPO,ICO.46Source:BainanalysisEarly-stageinvestmentsgrowingEarly-stageinvestmentsgrowingmacroheadwinds,ticketsizeshaveincreasedby40-60%,●43210543210dingvalueBEarlyEarly-stagedHHGrowth-stageGrowth-stageseesrecordhighsFromHtoH022,growth-stageinvestmentshitanSeriesSeriesBSeriesCGrowth-stageHHLate-stageinvestmentsonadowntrend●642Late-stageLate-stageinvestmentsonadowntrend●6420H12019H22019H12020H22020H12021H22021H1202247Note:FundingvalueincludespublicfinancingdealslikePIPE,IPO,ICO.47Source:Bainanalysis020●020●66●andpost-IPOfinancingroundsrangingbetweenarebringingIPOprospectstoanearhaltforthe““““seefewerandsmaller-sizeddealsseefewerandsmaller-sizeddealserealactivity*from2021peaksSource:Bain,SEAVentureCapitalInvestorsSurvey,Q320224849Note:‘Overalldelivery’includesfoodandlogistics;EBITDA=Earningsbeforeinterest,taxes,depreciation,andamortisation.49Source:Bainanalysis““““areexpediting““““RevisedtargetGraGrabeninthefirstquarterof2024.”inenonthat5050772018201920202021●●SEAfunds’drypowderatyear-end($B)AtentsinSEAwillcontinuethroughouttheVCsarelikelytore-investintheirownportfolioowerI51sandtheopportunitiestheybring.tors52Note:‘Others’includeBrunei,Bangladesh,Cambodia,Myanmar,andSriLanka.52Source:Bainanalysis 2%Privatefundingvalue,bycountry($B)SingaporeIndonesiaVietnamPhilippinesMalaysiaThailandOthers34%46%020535350%47%30%“““50%47%30%“““toattractmoreinvestorsoverthelonger-termQQ.Howdoyouexpectdealactivitytochangeinthelong-term(2025-2030)forthefollowingcountries?alaysiaRestofowthandinvestmentsveasath54Note:‘Others’includefoodtech,B2Btech,transport,cleantech,agritech,etc.54Source:Bainanalysis 1% 1% 35% 3%34% 6%0%0%%6%dingvalueBDFSE-commerceTransportDigitalmediaLeisure&travelOthers0%4%020●●●●PaymentsLendingInvestmentsInsuranceRemittanceOthers643222240240020Note:‘Others’includedigitalbanks,Web3-relatedfintechs,etc.Source:BainanalysisPaymentsremaincentrestagestorswillbeonthelookoutformoreinfrastructure-basedsolutionsastheylayersstepintothelimelightinterestinlendinghasmultipliedwithdealvaluedoublinge555656●●●●E-commerceprivatefundingvalue($B)MarketplaceLogisticsOthers643322020401dealsinamaturingsectorfewerdealsin22thanin2021.ooloffplayersalreadysufficientlyfundedtocontinuecapacity57gestion5858““VC““80%“7%QQ.Howdoyouexpectdealactivitytochangeinthelong-term(2025-2030)forthefollowingsectors? HealthtechHealthtechpriseITsoftwareWeb3carepainpoints““Lowinsurancecoveragefordigitalhealthservicesservicese““Lowinsurancecoveragefordigitalhealthservicesservicesegonlinehospitalfacilitiesbetween1-3hospitalbedsper1,000EmerginghealthcareystemsdatedhealthrecordslloperateinsiloedMaturehealthcareystemshealthcarecostspopulationexpectedtodoubleby2030““596060ndeconomicdevelopmentcontributiontotheeconomySignificantjobcreation“““lpaddresstheirpainpointsCostlybackendservicescausehighoperatingcostsimitedreachandscalabilitywithanarrayofjobopportunities,SMEsandMSMEswillcontinuetoplayavitalroleinoureconomy,giventhe61Notes:DAO=DecentralisedAutonomousOrganisation;‘Others’includecompaniesleveredtocrypto,creatoreconomyandWeb3infrastructure61Source:Bain,SEAVentureCapitalInvestorsSurvey,Q32022areasareyoumostinterestedininvestingininfrastructuresMetaverseCryptoOthers6262●●●●Edtechprivatefundingvalue($B)0.500.2020Edtechcoolsafterpandemicpeakschurnrates,loweruptakeofnewcourses,andeedtechneedstopqualityteachingmaterialsandalearningexperiencethatseamlesslyintegratesgdigitaleconomy64EECarbonWaterstewardshipMaterialuse,wasteandcircularityestancesAirqualityityandecologicalwelfare rightspracticesDiversity,equityHealthandwellnesssCustomersafetyCybersecurityanddigitalprivacyCommunitypartnershipGGrnanceGovernancefoundationBusinessTransparencyandethicsriskmanagementparencyThird-partyonshipspracticesIndirecteconomicimpactsandtlpolicyAppropriatelynavigatingcomplexdomesticandinternationalissues,incl.policyandlobbyingstances6566ofconcernsomewhatconcerningsignificantconcernforeachESGdimensionacrossdifferentsectors66Source:Bain,SEAVentureCapitalInvestorsSurvey,Q32022E-commercesportFooddeliveryOnlinetravelGamingOnlinemediaintechE-commercesportFooddeliveryOnlinetravelGamingOnlinemediaintechHealthtechernbysectorceEECarboCarbonWaterstewardshipMaterialMaterialuse,wasteandcircularityestancesAirqualityityandecologicalwelfare Diversity,equityHealthandCustomersafetyCybersecurityandCommunityrightspracticeswellnessdigitalprivacypartnershipespromotingdiversity,equity,accessibility,andinclusion,insidecompanyandbeyondGGrnanceGovernancefoundationBusinessTransparencyandethicsriskmanagementparencyThird-partyonshipspracticesIndirecteconomicimpactsandtlpolicyAppropriatelynavigatingcomplexdomesticandinternationalissues,incl.policyandlobbyingstances676868apanaliaapanaliaGDPimpactIndexofGDPlosspotentialfromchronicclimateriskby2048ExtremeweatherriskAdaptivecapacityCurrentcapacitytocopewithclimateimpactsClimateeconomicindex~20MTTMT202220252030~20MTTMT202220252030ctedtoreachMTCOebyCarbonfootprint(CO2e)recalculatedbasedontheGreenhouseGasProtocolScopeThemethodologiesusedtocalculatethedigitaleconomy’sthreekeysectorsare:ddeliveryOnlinetravelhasbeenexcludeddespitetheenvironmentalfootprintofairtravel,sinceonlineplatformsfacilitatebookingsanddonotemitmaterialCO2ethemselves.nsportE-commerce69Notes:TheGreenhouseGasProtocolincludesScope1,2and3emissions.Scope3definedas:‘Emissionscomingfromactivitiesfromassetsnotownedby69company,butindirectlyimpactsinitsvaluechain’.Nascentsectors(e.g.Web3)notincludedgivenuncertaintiesaroundthetechnologyandbusinessmodels.MTCO2e=milliontonnesofcarbondioxideequivalent.Source:BainanalysisnfootprintscenariosindexedemissionlevelsE-commercesport-30-40%-20-30%e-20-30%e-commerceToreducee-commerce’sfootprintbyeTheonlinetransportsectorcanloweritsdrivers70Notes:DifferencesbetweenscenariosarelargelydrivenbyScope3emissions.Purchasingbehaviourhassignificantimpactoncarbonemissions—ifconsumers70multiplepurchasesinthesametripororder,theycanreduceemissionsonaperitembasis.Transportcomparisondoesnotconsiderend-to-endcarbonemissionslinkedtovehiclemanufacturingandownership.Onlinetransportcanhelpreducetheneedforvehiclemanufacturingandownership.Source:Bainanalysis71enessandprovideoptionstoenessandprovideoptionstocutlery,tomeetthepathtoprofitabilitygoals?leverageconsumers’emergingrlikeandreducingourcollectivecarbonfootprint?MerchantsCompaniesCarbon-friendlypracticesnomiccontributionJobcreation20-25M6-7M~160K~160K~30M~30M72Notes:(1)Coresectorsincludee-commerce,transport,fooddelivery,onlinetravel,onlinemedia,andfinancialservices.(2)Indirectjobsrefertojobscreatedas72resultofthedigitalplatformbusiness,includingtransportdriver-partners,fooddeliveryriders,contentcreatorsandpersonnelofthirdpartylogisticscompaniesthatsupporte-commerce,etc.(3)With5%beingthelowestand10%beingthehighestGMV/GDPpenetrationamongSEAcountriesin2022.Source:Bainanalysis73Worker-partnerconcernsWelfareWell-beingstandardofworkplacesafetyWorker-partnerconcernsWelfareWell-beingstandardofworkplacesafetywell-beingoverjobsmaximisation?●●●worker-partners’rightswithserviceaffordabilityandsumerconcernsnadoptionofdigitalnomyservicesineconomyservicesmorethedigitaleconomydivide?servicestotheunbankedandgainstabuseandfraud747575Source:GoogleTrends,2022vs2020averagesearchvolumesIndexedsearchesIndexedsearchesSustainabilitySustainability-relatedsearchtrends,bycountry2.6XX2.6XX80680604020100505000002022202220222.82.8X10010050100505000202202022202276Question:Whatarethemostimportantthingsyouconsiderwhilepurchasingthefollowingproducts76Base:Indonesia,Philippines,Vietnam,Thailand,Malaysia,andSingapore,n=9,749aisbasedonthepackagedfoodscategorysaytheyc